Tearsheet

Nike (NKE)


Market Price (11/20/2025): $63.04 | Market Cap: $93.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods

Nike (NKE)


Market Price (11/20/2025): $63.04
Market Cap: $93.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, and Advanced Materials. Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, and Advanced Materials. Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

NKE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 20, 2025, Nike's (NKE) stock experienced a decline of -15.7% due to several key factors: **1. Significant Drop in Net Income and Gross Margin.** Despite surpassing revenue expectations for its first quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended on August 31, 2025, Nike reported a substantial 31% decrease in net income and a 30% decline in diluted earnings per share. The company's gross margin also fell by 320 basis points to 42.2%, primarily attributed to higher discounts, unfavorable shifts in sales channels, and increased tariffs in North America.

**2. Decline in NIKE Direct and Digital Sales.** Nike's direct-to-consumer business faced a downturn during the period, with NIKE Direct revenues decreasing by 4% on a reported basis and 5% on a currency-neutral basis. This decline was largely driven by a significant 12% drop in NIKE Brand Digital sales and a 1% decrease in sales from NIKE-owned retail stores, indicating challenges in their direct sales strategy.

**3. Underperformance in Key Markets and Brands.** The company encountered considerable headwinds in crucial growth areas, most notably in Greater China, where revenues were down 9% on a reported basis (10% currency-adjusted). Additionally, Converse, a wholly-owned subsidiary, experienced a sharp decline of 27% in revenues (28% currency-neutral), indicating significant strategic weakness within the brand and contributing to the overall stock pressure.

**4. Impact of Increased Tariffs and Product Costs.** Higher tariffs, particularly those affecting North America, coupled with rising product costs, placed considerable pressure on Nike's profitability. These factors were instrumental in the contraction of gross margins. The cumulative financial impact of tariffs is now estimated to be approximately $1.5 billion, representing a significant headwind for the company's margins through fiscal year 2026.

**5. Large Insider Stock Sale.** On August 14, 2025, Nike's Chairman, Mark G. Parker, sold 86,078 shares of company stock in a transaction valued at over $6.5 million. This significant insider selling, exceeding the $5 million threshold, could have been perceived by investors as a signal of potential concerns regarding the company's future performance, contributing to negative sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NKE Return41%19%-29%-6%-29%-16%-33%
Peers Return-4%53%-34%24%45%21%110%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NKE Win Rate50%50%33%58%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate67%75%25%50%67%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NKE Max Drawdown-38%-10%-50%-23%-34%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-65%-11%-37%0%-5%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIL, AGIE, JPO, MPJS, ZCXX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNKES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven140 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven68 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven371 days1480 days

Compare to GIL, AGIE, JPO, MPJS, ZCXX


In The Past

Nike's stock fell -53.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -53.2% loss requires a 113.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Nike (NKE)

Interactive Breakdown

Nike Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Nike (NKE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NKE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-2.3%-2.3%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%-6.3%-6.3%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
NKE_3312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312025NKENikeDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.9%-0.2%-16.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-2.3%-2.3%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%-6.3%-6.3%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
NKE_3312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312025NKENikeDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.9%-0.2%-16.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nike

Financials

NKEGILAGIEJPOMPJSZCXXMedian
NameNike Gildan A.Angie JP Outfi.MPJS Zc Gold . 
Mkt Price62.6455.89----59.27
Mkt Cap92.58.3----50.4
Rev LTM46,4403,362----24,901
Op Inc LTM3,420728----2,074
FCF LTM3,009-----3,009
FCF 3Y Avg4,893-----4,893
CFO LTM3,526-----3,526
CFO 3Y Avg5,611-----5,611

Growth & Margins

NKEGILAGIEJPOMPJSZCXXMedian
NameNike Gildan A.Angie JP Outfi.MPJS Zc Gold . 
Rev Chg LTM-7.1%4.0%-----1.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%0.7%----0.2%
Rev Chg Q1.1%2.2%----1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.3%0.6%----0.4%
Op Mgn LTM7.4%21.7%----14.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.2%19.3%----14.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%0.4%-----0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM7.6%-----7.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.3%-----11.3%
FCF/Rev LTM6.5%-----6.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%-----9.9%

Valuation

NKEGILAGIEJPOMPJSZCXXMedian
NameNike Gildan A.Angie JP Outfi.MPJS Zc Gold . 
Mkt Cap92.58.3----50.4
P/S2.02.5----2.2
P/EBIT27.012.3----19.7
P/E31.917.6----24.8
P/CFO26.2-----26.2
Total Yield3.1%6.5%----4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%----0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%-----3.8%
D/E0.10.2----0.2
Net D/E0.00.2----0.1

Returns

NKEGILAGIEJPOMPJSZCXXMedian
NameNike Gildan A.Angie JP Outfi.MPJS Zc Gold . 
1M Rtn-7.4%-6.3%-----6.9%
3M Rtn-17.4%3.2%-----7.1%
6M Rtn5.7%15.3%----10.5%
12M Rtn-13.4%16.8%----1.7%
3Y Rtn-37.5%108.6%----35.5%
1M Excs Rtn-7.0%-4.1%-----5.5%
3M Excs Rtn-21.6%-0.8%-----11.2%
6M Excs Rtn-8.0%1.7%-----3.2%
12M Excs Rtn-29.6%5.1%-----12.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-104.8%41.2%-----31.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Footwear35,22735,29031,23730,00724,947
Apparel13,86813,93313,67012,96911,042
Equipment2,1121,7551,6501,4111,305
Other155239153151109
Total51,36251,21746,71044,53837,403


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity36,774,637
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520257.4%
Average Daily Volume11,418,193
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.22
Basic Shares Quantity1,476,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/30/20256.4%-1.2%-6.3%
6/26/202515.2%22.4%25.2%
3/20/2025-5.5%-8.4%-21.9%
12/19/2024-0.2%-0.9%-3.6%
10/1/2024-6.8%-9.4%-14.2%
6/27/2024-20.0%-19.9%-21.9%
3/21/2024-6.9%-6.8%-6.6%
12/21/2023-11.8%-11.4%-17.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101010
# Negative141414
Median Positive7.7%7.5%10.0%
Median Negative-6.5%-7.3%-6.4%
Max Positive15.5%22.4%25.2%
Max Negative-20.0%-19.9%-21.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251001202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025717202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025403202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024103202510-Q 11/30/2024
83120241007202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024725202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024404202410-Q 2/29/2024
11302023105202410-Q 11/30/2023
83120231006202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023720202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023406202310-Q 2/28/2023
11302022105202310-Q 11/30/2022
83120221006202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022721202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022405202210-Q 2/28/2022
11302021106202210-Q 11/30/2021

Insider Activity

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