Nike (NKE)
Market Price (11/27/2025): $64.45 | Market Cap: $95.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Nike (NKE)
Market Price (11/27/2025): $64.45Market Cap: $95.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, and Advanced Materials. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, and Advanced Materials. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NKE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why Nike's (NKE) stock moved by -13.4% during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 27, 2025: 1. 1. Significant Revenue and Profit Declines: Nike reported a challenging fiscal year 2025, with revenues for the fourth quarter (ended May 31, 2025) decreasing by 12% year-over-year to $11.1 billion. Net income for Q4 2025 also saw a sharp fall of 86% to $0.2 billion, with diluted earnings per share dropping by 86% to $0.14. The fiscal third quarter (ended February 28, 2025) similarly saw a 9% revenue decline and a 32% decrease in net income. These substantial declines in both top and bottom lines indicate a challenging financial landscape for the company. 2. 2. Persistent Decline in Digital Sales and Nike Direct: Nike's direct-to-consumer strategy faced significant headwinds, with Nike Direct revenues down 14% in Q4 2025 and digital sales declining by 26% year-over-year. This prolonged downturn in digital sales, including declines in EMEA and Greater China, suggests difficulties in engaging consumers through online channels and a strategic shift towards a premium, full-price model over promotional activity, which impacted short-term sales. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NKE Return | 41% | 19% | -29% | -6% | -29% | -14% | -32% |
| Peers Return | -4% | 53% | -34% | 24% | 45% | 24% | 115% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NKE Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 25% | 50% | 67% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NKE Max Drawdown | -38% | -10% | -50% | -23% | -34% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -65% | -11% | -37% | 0% | -5% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIL, AGIE, JPO, MPJS, ZCXX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NKE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GIL, AGIE, JPO, MPJS, ZCXX
In The Past
Nike's stock fell -53.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -53.2% loss requires a 113.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NKE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.5% | -7.5% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.9% | 4.9% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -8.6% | -8.6% | -8.8% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.8% | -3.8% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 03312025 | NKE | Nike | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 1.5% | -16.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.5% | -7.5% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.9% | 4.9% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -8.6% | -8.6% | -8.8% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.8% | -3.8% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 03312025 | NKE | Nike | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 1.5% | -16.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nike
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 51.8 |
| Rev LTM | 24,901 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,074 |
| FCF LTM | 3,009 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,893 |
| CFO LTM | 3,526 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,611 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 51.8 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 20.2 |
| P/E | 25.4 |
| P/CFO | 26.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/30/2025 | 6.4% | -1.2% | -6.3% |
| 6/26/2025 | 15.2% | 22.4% | 25.2% |
| 3/20/2025 | -5.5% | -8.4% | -21.9% |
| 12/19/2024 | -0.2% | -0.9% | -3.6% |
| 10/1/2024 | -6.8% | -9.4% | -14.2% |
| 6/27/2024 | -20.0% | -19.9% | -21.9% |
| 3/21/2024 | -6.9% | -6.8% | -6.6% |
| 12/21/2023 | -11.8% | -11.4% | -17.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.5% | -7.3% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 15.5% | 22.4% | 25.2% |
| Max Negative | -20.0% | -19.9% | -21.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10012025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7172025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4032025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1032025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10072024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7252024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4042024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1052024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10062023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7202023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4062023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1052023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10062022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7212022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4052022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1062022 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |