Netflix (NFLX)
Market Price (10/13/2025): $1217.4 | Market Cap: $517.7 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Netflix (NFLX)
Market Price (10/13/2025): $1217.4Market Cap: $517.7 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 42x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x | |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 9.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.5 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 9.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.5 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 42x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x |
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NFLX Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
NFLX Return | 67% | 11% | -51% | 65% | 83% | 37% | 277% |
Peers Return | 49% | 231% | -54% | 20% | -10% | 34% | 226% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
NFLX Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 83% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 48% | 48% | 28% | 57% | 45% | 47% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
NFLX Max Drawdown | -8% | -10% | -72% | -1% | -4% | -7% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -19% | -56% | -33% | -36% | -20% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AAPL, AMZN, FUBO, AMC, RDI. See NFLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/10/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | NFLX | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -75.9% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 315.8% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 832 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -22.9% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -44.2% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 478 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -55.9% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 126.9% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Netflix's stock fell -75.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -75.9% loss requires a 315.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services in the United States. The company has approximately 222 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to NFLX and Movies & Entertainment.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -10.4% | -10.4% | -10.4% |
05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% | |
04302025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.8% | -22.8% | -27.4% |
04302025 | IAS | Integral Ad Science | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 44.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% |
04302024 | NFLX | Netflix | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 37.9% | 105.5% | 0.0% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -10.4% | -10.4% | -10.4% |
05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% | |
04302025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.8% | -22.8% | -27.4% |
04302025 | IAS | Integral Ad Science | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 44.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% |
04302024 | NFLX | Netflix | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 37.9% | 105.5% | 0.0% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Netflix
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 110.03 |
Mkt Cap | 260.0 |
Rev LTM | 23,304 |
Op Inc LTM | 6,207 |
FCF LTM | 4,316 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 3,259 |
CFO LTM | 4,609 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 3,470 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Rev Chg Q | 14.6% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
Op Mgn LTM | 6.8% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 13.6% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 260.0 |
P/S | 2.1 |
P/EBIT | 19.3 |
P/E | 23.3 |
P/CFO | 14.6 |
Total Yield | 2.5% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.0% |
D/E | 0.2 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -0.7% |
3M Rtn | 2.3% |
6M Rtn | 22.1% |
12M Rtn | 11.4% |
3Y Rtn | 32.1% |
1M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
12M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -41.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/17/2025 | -5.1% | -7.3% | -2.8% |
4/17/2025 | 1.5% | 13.2% | 22.5% |
10/17/2024 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 19.8% |
7/18/2024 | -1.5% | -1.4% | 4.8% |
4/18/2024 | -9.1% | -7.5% | 1.7% |
1/23/2024 | 10.7% | 14.4% | 19.6% |
10/18/2023 | 16.1% | 18.8% | 34.9% |
7/19/2023 | -8.4% | -11.5% | -15.6% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 9 | 10 | 15 |
# Negative | 14 | 13 | 8 |
Median Positive | 10.7% | 12.6% | 10.2% |
Median Negative | -5.8% | -7.3% | -9.9% |
Max Positive | 16.9% | 20.8% | 34.9% |
Max Negative | -35.1% | -43.1% | -49.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7182025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4182025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 1272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10182024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7192024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4222024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 1262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10202023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7212023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 4212023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 1262023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 1272022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10212021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
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