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Netflix (NFLX)

Market Price (5/30/2026): $86.0 | Market Cap: $363.2 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Netflix (NFLX)

Market Price (5/30/2026): $86.0
Market Cap: $363.2 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 22 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -8.6%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x

Key risks
NFLX key risks include [1] immense financial pressure from escalating content production costs and the potential for high-budget flops, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 22 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -8.6%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x
8 Key risks
NFLX key risks include [1] immense financial pressure from escalating content production costs and the potential for high-budget flops, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 5/8/2026
Netflix (NFLX) stock has gained about 5% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Netflix reported stronger-than-expected financial results for both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. For Q4 2025, revenue grew 18% year over year to $12.1 billion, and operating income rose 30% year over year with an operating margin expanding to 25%. Q1 2026 continued this trend, with revenue reaching $12.25 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase that surpassed expectations. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2026 hit $1.23, significantly beating analyst estimates of $0.76 or $0.79.

2. The company's ad-supported subscription tier demonstrated rapid expansion and monetization success. In Q1 2026, this tier accounted for over 60% of new sign-ups in eligible markets. Netflix is targeting approximately $3 billion in ad revenue for the full year 2026, which represents a doubling from the prior year, highlighting a successful strategy for diversifying revenue streams.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 3.0% change in NFLX stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120265292026Change
Stock Price ($)83.4986.023.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)45,18346,8903.8%
Net Income Margin (%)24.3%28.5%17.4%
P/E Multiple32.227.2-15.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4,2294,2230.1%
Cumulative Contribution3.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NFLX3.0% 
Market (SPY)9.6%10.6%
Sector (XLC)-3.3%40.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -23.1% change in NFLX stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120255292026Change
Stock Price ($)111.8986.02-23.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)43,37946,8908.1%
Net Income Margin (%)24.0%28.5%18.6%
P/E Multiple45.527.2-40.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4,2454,2230.5%
Cumulative Contribution-23.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NFLX-23.1% 
Market (SPY)11.5%8.0%
Sector (XLC)1.4%29.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -24.0% change in NFLX stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020255292026Change
Stock Price ($)113.1786.02-24.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)40,17346,89016.7%
Net Income Margin (%)23.1%28.5%23.6%
P/E Multiple52.227.2-47.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4,2734,2231.2%
Cumulative Contribution-24.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NFLX-24.0% 
Market (SPY)38.0%12.9%
Sector (XLC)22.7%30.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 160.7% change in NFLX stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 116.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)43020235292026Change
Stock Price ($)32.9986.02160.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)31,90946,89046.9%
Net Income Margin (%)13.2%28.5%116.7%
P/E Multiple35.027.2-22.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4,4524,2235.4%
Cumulative Contribution160.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NFLX160.7% 
Market (SPY)89.0%39.4%
Sector (XLC)99.6%46.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NFLX Return11%-51%65%83%5%-8%60%
Peers Return-0%-42%37%16%35%2%27%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%101%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NFLX Win Rate42%42%58%83%50%20% 
Peers Win Rate48%32%67%55%52%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%60% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NFLX Max Drawdown-17%-72%-28%-13%-31%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-49%-24%-26%-30%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DIS, WBD, AMZN, CMCSA, AAPL. See NFLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventNFLXS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-18.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven21.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven19 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-11.7%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.2%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven14 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-19.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven16 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-18.4%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.5%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven69 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-72.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven259.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven657 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-22.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven28 days140 days

Compare to DIS, WBD, AMZN, CMCSA, AAPL

In The Past

Netflix's stock fell -18.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventNFLXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-72.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven259.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven657 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-22.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven28 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-38.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven61.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven87 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-34.0%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.4%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven259 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-33.7%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.9%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven66 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-72.0%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven257.5%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven668 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-37.5%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven60.0%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven51 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-20.1%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.1%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven63 days47 days

Compare to DIS, WBD, AMZN, CMCSA, AAPL

In The Past

Netflix's stock fell -18.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services in the United States. The company has approximately 222 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

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  • Like Blockbuster, but for streaming movies and TV shows instantly to your devices instead of renting physical discs.
  • A global cable TV provider, but all content is on-demand and streamed over the internet.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Streaming Content Subscription: Provides access to TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games for streaming across internet-connected devices.
  • DVDs-by-Mail Subscription: Offers physical DVD and Blu-ray rentals delivered by mail within the United States.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Netflix (NFLX) sells primarily to individuals.

Its major customer categories are:

  • Global Streaming Subscribers: This represents the vast majority of Netflix's customer base across 190 countries, who subscribe to consume TV series, documentaries, and feature films via various internet-connected devices.
  • Mobile Gamers: A distinct segment of subscribers who engage with the mobile games offered by Netflix, representing a newer form of content consumption within their ecosystem.
  • DVD-by-Mail Subscribers (United States): A specific, geographically limited customer segment in the United States that utilizes Netflix's legacy DVD rental service.

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Amazon (AMZN)

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Reed Hastings, Chairman

Reed Hastings co-founded Netflix in 1997 and served as CEO for 25 years before transitioning to Executive Chairman in 2023. Prior to Netflix, he founded Pure Software in 1991, which he took public and sold in 1997. Hastings is an active educational philanthropist and previously served as President of the California State Board of Education. He also sits on the boards of private companies Bloomberg and Anthropic.

Ted Sarandos, Co-CEO

Ted Sarandos has served as co-chief executive officer of Netflix since July 2020. He joined Netflix in 2000 and, prior to becoming co-CEO, was the company's chief content officer, overseeing its original programming and entertainment efforts. His early career involved managing retail video stores and serving as Vice President of Product and Merchandising for Video City/West Coast Video, a chain of almost 500 stores, until March 2000. Sarandos was responsible for initiating Netflix's first round of original programming.

Greg Peters, Co-CEO

Greg Peters was named co-CEO of Netflix in January 2023. Before this, he held roles as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Product Officer at Netflix. Peters joined Netflix in 2008 as International Development Officer. Prior to his tenure at Netflix, he was Senior Vice President of consumer electronics products for Macrovision Solutions Corp. He notably led Netflix's expansion into Asia, including its launch in Japan in 2015, and has been a key driver behind the company's ventures into gaming and the introduction of its ad-supported subscription tier.

Spencer Neumann, Chief Financial Officer

Spencer Neumann was appointed CFO of Netflix in January 2019. His previous experience includes serving as CFO of Activision Blizzard and holding various positions at The Walt Disney Company, such as CFO and Executive Vice President of Global Guest Experience of Walt Disney Parks and Resorts. Neumann also worked at the private equity firms of Providence Equity Partners and Summit Partners. He currently serves on the board of Adobe.

Bela Bajaria, Chief Content Officer

Bela Bajaria has served as Netflix's Chief Content Officer since January 2023, overseeing the company's global television and film content strategy. She joined Netflix in 2016, initially responsible for unscripted and scripted series. Before joining Netflix, Bajaria was President of Universal Television. She began her career in the entertainment industry as an assistant in the movies and miniseries department at CBS in 1996. Under her leadership, Netflix has expanded its content offerings to include a diverse range of genres and formats, including live events and sports.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Netflix's business include:

  1. Intense Competition and Market Saturation: Netflix faces significant competition from a growing number of streaming services, including major players like Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and Apple TV+. This competitive landscape has led to increased content spending across the industry, making it challenging for Netflix to acquire and retain subscribers, particularly in mature markets such as the United States where its penetration is already high. Competitors' strategies, such as content bundling and leveraging strong franchises, also contribute to churn risk and make subscriber retention more difficult for Netflix.

  2. Escalating Content Costs and Margin Compression: To compete effectively and attract new subscribers, Netflix continues to invest heavily in producing and acquiring original content. This substantial and increasing content expenditure, which can exceed billions of dollars annually, is a significant financial burden. While essential for differentiation, these rising content costs can lead to a reduction in operating margins and impact overall profitability, especially if subscriber growth does not keep pace.

  3. Slowing Subscriber Growth and Monetization Challenges: Netflix has experienced a slowdown in subscriber growth in established markets, like the U.S. and Canada, attributed partly to market saturation and previous price increases. Although efforts like cracking down on password sharing have shown short-term benefits in boosting revenue and subscriber numbers, there is an inherent risk of alienating existing users. Furthermore, the effectiveness of new monetization strategies, such as ad-supported tiers, in fully offsetting the deceleration of premium subscriber growth remains a concern for the company.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The proliferation of well-funded, content-rich streaming services from major media companies (e.g., Disney+, Max, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+) poses a clear emerging threat. This intense competition for subscribers and content leads to escalating content production and acquisition costs, increased subscriber churn due to market saturation and subscription fatigue, and the withdrawal of popular licensed content by studios for their own platforms.

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Netflix's main products and services operate within several addressable markets, primarily global video streaming and mobile gaming, and a smaller, declining market for DVD-by-mail services in the United States.

Global Video Streaming / Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD)

The global Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) market, which encompasses Netflix's core streaming service, was valued at approximately USD 128.43 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 209.35 billion by 2030, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.5% over the forecast period. Another estimate places the global SVOD market at USD 130.2 billion in 2024, expecting it to expand to USD 237.4 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 9.8%. More broadly, the global video streaming market was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 21.5% from 2025 to 2030. Other analyses forecast the global video streaming market to reach USD 843.0 billion by 2033, from USD 137.9 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 22.3% from 2025 to 2033. The overall video on demand market was valued at USD 170.3 billion in 2024 and reached USD 198.3 billion in 2025.

Global Mobile Gaming

Netflix has expanded into mobile games, tapping into the global mobile gaming market. This market was valued at approximately USD 100.08 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 216.82 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 8.52% from 2025-2033. Another report estimates the global mobile gaming market size at USD 139.38 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 256.19 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10.2% from 2025 to 2030.

U.S. DVD, Game & Video Rental

For its DVDs-by-mail membership services, Netflix operates within the U.S. DVD, Game & Video Rental market. This market was valued at USD 630.1 million in 2025 and is estimated to be around USD 606.3 million in 2026. This market has experienced a decline, with revenue dropping at a CAGR of 9.0% through the five years to 2026.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Netflix (NFLX) over the next 2-3 years:
  1. Growth of Ad-Supported Tier: Netflix's ad-supported subscription tier is a significant driver, having reached 94 million subscribers globally by May 2025, a 34% increase from November 2024. This less-expensive option now accounts for 50% of all new Netflix subscribers. Netflix more than doubled its ad revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, to over $1.5 billion, and expects it to roughly double again in 2026 to about $3 billion.
  2. Paid Sharing Initiative: The strategic crackdown on password sharing has proven to be a major success, converting unauthorized viewers into paying subscribers. This initiative significantly bolstered subscriber numbers, adding 9.3 million new subscribers in Q1 2024 and 9 million new subscribers globally in Q3 2023.
  3. Price Increases and Average Revenue Per Membership (ARM) Growth: Netflix has been implementing price increases, and management expects continued growth in average revenue per membership (ARM) which contributes to overall revenue. While Q1 2024 saw modest ARM growth, the company expects it to continue throughout the year.
  4. Content Investment and Diversification: A strong and diverse content slate, including original programming, international productions, reality shows, live events, and sports, is crucial for attracting and retaining subscribers. Netflix is also expanding its content offerings to include video podcasts and live sports, such as the World Baseball Classic in Japan and MLB rights.
  5. Gaming Monetization: While Netflix's gaming strategy primarily focuses on enhancing subscriber engagement and retention, the company is exploring new monetization strategies for its gaming platform. Potential revenue streams could include in-game purchases and premium gaming subscriptions, moving beyond the current model where most games are free of in-app purchases.

AI Analysis | Feedback

```html

[1] Share Repurchases

  • Netflix reported net common equity repurchases of approximately $22.772 billion in 2025.
  • Net common equity repurchases were approximately $5.431 billion in 2024.
  • In 2023, net common equity repurchases amounted to approximately $5.875 billion.

[2] Share Issuance

  • Netflix's shares outstanding declined by 1.11% in 2025 to 4.344 billion, indicating net share repurchases over issuance.
  • In 2024, shares outstanding decreased by 2.28% to 4.393 billion, also reflecting net repurchases.
  • Shares outstanding saw a 0.4% decline in 2023, reaching 4.495 billion, suggesting a continuation of net share repurchases.

[4] Outbound Investments

  • Netflix did not report meaningful long-term investments (outbound) for 2025, 2024, or 2023, with figures recorded as $0B for these years.

[5] Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures peaked in December 2025 at $688.2 million.
  • In 2024, capital expenditures were approximately $439.5 million.
  • Capital expenditures were $348.6 million in 2023, marking its five-year low.
```

Interactive Breakdown

Netflix Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets vs. Netflix (NFLX)

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Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to NFLX.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CMCSA_4242026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04242026CMCSAComcastDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-1.9%-1.9%-2.9%
TTD_4022026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE04022026TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		7.0%7.0%-8.9%
META_3272026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03272026METAMeta PlatformsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		16.4%16.4%0.0%
CARG_3062026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V203062026CARGCarGurusInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		8.3%8.3%-8.3%
YELP_2132026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02132026YELPYelpDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		31.6%31.6%-5.7%
NFLX_4302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302024NFLXNetflixQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run		37.9%105.5%0.0%
NFLX_1312022_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V201312022NFLXNetflixInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		-47.0%-17.2%-61.1%

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NFLXDISWBDAMZNCMCSAAAPLMedian
NameNetflix Walt Dis.Warner B.Amazon.c.Comcast Apple  
Mkt Price86.02101.8327.01270.6424.87312.0693.92
Mkt Cap363.2179.867.32,907.589.54,578.9271.5
Rev LTM46,89097,26337,210742,776125,278451,442111,270
Op Inc LTM13,93713,9121,75185,42219,147147,36616,542
FCF LTM11,8947,1102,310-2,47217,716129,1749,502
FCF 3Y Avg8,7628,7884,71021,34614,947109,86011,868
CFO LTM12,65015,7923,558148,53132,240140,22224,016
CFO 3Y Avg9,29915,7755,865120,52729,827120,11422,801

Growth & Margins

NFLXDISWBDAMZNCMCSAAAPLMedian
NameNetflix Walt Dis.Warner B.Amazon.c.Comcast Apple  
Rev Chg LTM16.7%3.4%-3.0%14.2%1.4%12.8%8.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.7%3.8%-3.4%12.3%1.4%5.6%4.7%
Rev Chg Q16.2%6.5%-1.0%16.6%5.3%16.6%11.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.8%1.6%-0.2%3.6%1.3%3.6%2.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM25.2%1.7%407.5%19.2%-17.3%15.7%17.4%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg37.7%25.7%214.3%108.4%-5.1%9.6%31.7%
Op Mgn LTM29.7%14.3%4.7%11.5%15.3%32.6%14.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg26.7%13.6%1.3%10.2%17.8%31.8%15.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.1%1.2%0.3%-1.4%0.3%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM27.0%16.2%9.6%20.0%25.7%31.1%22.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg22.6%16.8%15.0%18.1%24.1%29.1%20.3%
FCF/Rev LTM25.4%7.3%6.2%-0.3%14.1%28.6%10.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.3%9.4%12.0%3.5%12.1%26.6%12.0%

Valuation

NFLXDISWBDAMZNCMCSAAAPLMedian
NameNetflix Walt Dis.Warner B.Amazon.c.Comcast Apple  
Mkt Cap363.2179.867.32,907.589.54,578.9271.5
P/S7.71.81.83.90.710.12.9
P/Op Inc26.112.938.434.04.731.128.6
P/EBIT21.512.858.524.63.131.123.1
P/E27.216.0-38.832.04.837.421.6
P/CFO28.711.418.919.62.832.719.2
Total Yield3.7%6.7%-2.6%3.1%26.5%3.0%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%5.5%0.3%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.5%4.7%18.3%1.1%11.6%3.4%4.0%
D/E0.00.30.50.11.10.00.2
Net D/E0.00.20.40.01.00.00.1

Returns

NFLXDISWBDAMZNCMCSAAAPLMedian
NameNetflix Walt Dis.Warner B.Amazon.c.Comcast Apple  
1M Rtn-6.6%0.5%-0.1%2.9%-7.1%15.6%0.2%
3M Rtn-10.6%-4.0%-4.1%28.9%-18.7%18.2%-4.0%
6M Rtn-20.0%-1.9%12.5%16.0%1.6%12.1%6.9%
12M Rtn-27.4%-8.1%169.0%31.6%-19.3%56.7%11.7%
3Y Rtn118.9%18.7%139.0%122.5%-25.0%78.5%98.7%
1M Excs Rtn-12.8%-5.7%-6.4%-3.3%-13.3%9.4%-6.0%
3M Excs Rtn-20.8%-14.2%-14.3%18.7%-28.9%8.0%-14.2%
6M Excs Rtn-29.6%-12.8%5.6%5.8%-10.4%0.8%-4.8%
12M Excs Rtn-57.5%-36.4%140.8%3.5%-48.9%27.6%-16.5%
3Y Excs Rtn58.8%-66.8%48.2%52.5%-110.1%1.6%24.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment39,001    
DVD revenues 83146182239
Streaming revenues 33,64031,47029,51524,757
Total39,00133,72331,61629,69824,996


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment10,418    
Total10,418    


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment8,712    
Total8,712    


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$86.02 
Market Cap ($ Bil)363.2 
First Trading Date05/23/2002 
Distance from 52W High-35.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$93.04$101.20
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA-7.5%-15.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility30.8%33.2%
Downside Capture39.5270.35
Upside Capture-16.5510.75
Correlation (SPY)-2.2%13.2%
NFLX Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.480.240.470.320.390.91
Up Beta0.320.270.330.490.350.78
Down Beta3.72-1.16-0.10-0.000.070.76
Up Capture19%31%78%9%23%162%
Bmk +ve Days15223166141428
Stock +ve Days13243761125394
Down Capture337%83%58%67%84%100%
Bmk -ve Days4183056108321
Stock -ve Days9192764127358

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NFLX
NFLX-28.9%33.1%-0.99-
Sector ETF (XLC)15.1%13.1%0.8131.2%
Equity (SPY)30.3%11.8%1.9413.5%
Gold (GLD)37.5%26.7%1.172.7%
Commodities (DBC)39.6%18.8%1.636.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.5%13.1%0.64-0.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-31.8%41.6%-0.817.5%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NFLX
NFLX11.6%43.0%0.40-
Sector ETF (XLC)9.6%20.6%0.3858.4%
Equity (SPY)14.3%17.0%0.6648.1%
Gold (GLD)18.8%18.0%0.857.4%
Commodities (DBC)10.2%19.4%0.417.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.4%18.8%0.0823.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)14.6%54.6%0.4624.9%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NFLX
NFLX25.4%41.5%0.69-
Sector ETF (XLC)9.6%22.2%0.5059.9%
Equity (SPY)15.9%17.9%0.7647.7%
Gold (GLD)13.3%16.0%0.697.4%
Commodities (DBC)7.3%17.9%0.3312.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%20.7%0.2423.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.0%66.9%1.0614.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date5152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity98.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 43020263.1%
Average Daily Volume35.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity4,222.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Updated 5/29/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/16/2026-9.7%-13.9%-19.3%
1/20/2026-2.2%-1.9%-11.8%
10/21/2025-10.1%-11.2%-11.4%
7/17/2025-5.1%-7.3%-2.8%
4/17/20251.5%13.2%22.5%
10/17/202411.1%9.7%19.8%
7/18/2024-1.5%-1.4%4.8%
4/18/2024-9.1%-7.5%1.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8912
# Negative151411
Median Positive10.9%13.2%14.9%
Median Negative-6.9%-7.8%-11.4%
Max Positive16.9%20.8%34.9%
Max Negative-35.1%-43.1%-49.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/17/202610-Q
12/31/202501/23/202610-K
09/30/202510/22/202510-Q
06/30/202507/18/202510-Q
03/31/202504/18/202510-Q
12/31/202401/27/202510-K
09/30/202410/18/202410-Q
06/30/202407/19/202410-Q
03/31/202404/22/202410-Q
12/31/202301/26/202410-K
09/30/202310/20/202310-Q
06/30/202307/21/202310-Q
03/31/202304/21/202310-Q
12/31/202201/26/202310-K
09/30/202210/20/202210-Q
06/30/202207/21/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 5/28/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Revenue 12.57 Bil 3.4% RaisedGuidance: 12.16 Bil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Operating Income 4.11 Bil 5.1% RaisedGuidance: 3.91 Bil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Operating Margin 32.6% 1.6%0.5%RaisedGuidance: 32.1% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Net Income 3.33 Bil 1.9% RaisedGuidance: 3.26 Bil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 EPS 0.78 2.6% RaisedGuidance: 0.76 for Q1 2026
2026 Revenue50.70 Bil51.20 Bil51.70 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 51.20 Bil for 2026
2026 Revenue Growth12.0%13.0%14.0%0 AffirmedGuidance: 13.0% for 2026
2026 Operating Margin 31.5% 0 AffirmedGuidance: 31.5% for 2026
2026 Ad Revenue 3.00 Bil   Higher New
2026 Free Cash Flow 12.50 Bil 13.6% RaisedGuidance: 11.00 Bil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/20/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Revenue 12.16 Bil 1.6% Higher NewActual: 11.96 Bil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Operating Income 3.91 Bil 36.6% Higher NewActual: 2.86 Bil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Operating Margin 32.1% 34.3%8.2%Higher NewActual: 23.9% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Net Income 3.26 Bil 38.6% Higher NewActual: 2.35 Bil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 EPS 0.76 -86.0% Lower NewActual: 5.45 for Q4 2025
2026 Revenue50.70 Bil51.20 Bil51.70 Bil13.5% Higher NewActual: 45.10 Bil for 2025
2026 Revenue Growth12.0%13.0%14.0%-22.2%-3.7%Lower NewActual: 16.7% for Q4 2025
2026 Ad Revenue Growth 100.0%    
2026 Operating Margin 31.5% 8.6%2.5%Higher NewActual: 29.0% for 2025
2026 Free Cash Flow 11.00 Bil 22.2% Higher NewActual: 9.00 Bil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 5/7/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Peters, Gregory KCo-CEODirectSell507202688.6927,3122,422,42110,725,902Form
2Neumann, Spencer AdamChief Financial OfficerDirectSell507202688.959,253823,0756,563,516Form
3Hastings, Reed DirectSell504202693.13407,55037,956,938366,950Form
4Hastings, Reed DirectSell402202695.49420,55040,156,465376,213Form
5Neumann, Spencer AdamChief Financial OfficerDirectSell302202695.5057,2605,468,3307,046,658Form

NFLX Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The score of 8 reflects a high-quality company with a widening moat that is successfully executing a strategic pivot to a new, high-margin growth driver. The investment thesis is supported by a strong secular tailwind in streaming. While the valuation is not cheap, it is justified by the company's superior profitability and growth profile. The primary risk of decelerating growth is tangible but appears adequately priced in after the recent post-earnings stock drop, creating an attractive risk/reward skew.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'

Netflix is a former high-growth company that is now prioritizing monetization, margin expansion (targeting 31.5% in 2026), and free cash flow generation (~$12.5B projected for 2026). This aligns perfectly with the 'Profit Pivot' archetype, where the investment thesis shifts from subscriber growth to profitability.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Advertising Revenue Scaling and Margin Expansion in FY2026

The primary driver for outperformance is the rapid and high-margin scaling of the advertising business. This creates a significant secondary revenue stream that leverages the existing subscriber base, fueling margin expansion and EPS growth even as subscriber additions in mature markets slow. The market is currently focused on the top-line deceleration while underappreciating the velocity of this high-margin profit engine.

Mechanism: Netflix captures value by monetizing its vast user engagement through a new, high-margin advertising tier. This diversifies revenue away from pure subscription fees and increases the average revenue per user (ARPU) across the entire ecosystem, leading to significant operating leverage.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Advertising revenue is expected to double to approximately $3 billion in 2026
  • The ad-supported tier accounted for over 60% of all new sign-ups in Q1 2026 in available markets, indicating strong consumer adoption
  • Management is guiding for an operating margin of 31.5% in FY2026, up from 29.5% in 2025, driven by this mix shift
  • Long-term projections show advertising revenue expanding further to $5.3 billion in FY27, indicating a durable growth runway
PRIMARY RISK
Decelerating Revenue Growth in Mature Markets Post-Monetization Initiatives

The primary risk is that the benefits from the password-sharing crackdown and the initial ad-tier launch are largely mature, revealing a decelerated underlying organic growth rate. Weak Q2 guidance and a flattening of growth in the high-value UCAN market suggest potential saturation, which could lead to multiple compression if growth falls below the guided 12-14% range.

Mechanism: If subscriber growth in core markets has plateaued, and ARPU growth from price hikes meets consumer resistance ('subscription fatigue'), the company could miss revenue expectations, breaking the 'durable compounder' narrative and causing a re-rating to a lower P/E multiple.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Q2 2026 revenue growth guidance of 13% indicates a sequential slowdown from Q1's 16% growth
  • The stock dropped nearly 10% following the Q1 earnings release, primarily due to the weak forward guidance, showing high market sensitivity to this issue
  • Analysts anticipate a growth slowdown in the high-value UCAN region in 2026
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Advertising RevenueTrack for >100% YoY growth in 2026 (i.e., achieving the ~$3B target).This is the primary driver of the 'Alpha' thesis. Failure to meet this aggressive growth target would invalidate the margin expansion and new growth narrative.
Operating MarginAchieving or exceeding the 31.5% full-year 2026 guidance.This KPI is the direct output of the ad business's success and overall cost control. It verifies the company's ability to generate operating leverage.
Revenue Growth Guidance for FY2027Must remain in the double digits.This is the core of the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. If forward guidance dips into the single digits, it confirms the bear case of market saturation and will likely trigger a multiple compression, regardless of current margin performance.
Core Investment Debate

Advertising Engine vs. Subscription Saturation

BULL VIEW

Bulls bet the ad business will double to ~$3B in 2026, driving margin expansion to 31.5%+ and creating a new, durable growth engine the market is underappreciating.

CORE TENSION

Can the new, high-margin ad business grow fast enough to offset decelerating growth in the mature subscription business and justify a premium valuation?

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

The stock dropped nearly 10% after the April 16, 2026 earnings release, which featured a full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint of $51.2B missing analyst estimates of $51.38B.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see market saturation. Weak Q2 guidance signals maturing catalysts. They expect FY27 growth guidance to dip to single digits, breaking the 'durable compounder' narrative.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Mid-July 2026
Q2 2026 Earnings & FY26 Guidance
Watch: Full-Year 2026 Revenue Growth Guidance. A cut below the current 12-14% range established in Q1 would be highly negative.
Mid-October 2026
Q3 2026 Earnings & Initial FY27 Outlook
Watch: First official commentary on FY2027 revenue growth expectations. Watch for any hint of a dip into the high single-digits.
Late June 2026
SAG-AFTRA / DGA Contract Negotiations Deadline
Watch: Headline announcements of either a strike authorization or a new, ratified contract agreement before the June 30 deadline.
Q2/Q3 2026
Competitor Earnings Reports (DIS, AMZN)
Watch: U.S. market share of user engagement. Watch for data showing Netflix share eroding below the 19% baseline from Q1 2026.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2025-10-20 - 2026-04-20
Strategic Risk: Sustained Insider Selling
Details: A continuous pattern over six months saw 23 discretionary sell transactions by insiders, totaling over 2.4M shares, with a complete absence of any open market buys.
-
2025-10-22
Q3 2025 Earnings
Details: Despite reporting strong 17% YoY revenue growth, the stock fell sharply, suggesting forward guidance or other key metrics disappointed investors concerned about future growth.
Crashed 10.1%
$124.13 -> $111.63
2026-01-22
DOJ Investigation into Warner Bros. Deal
Details: News emerged of an in-depth DOJ antitrust investigation into the proposed Warner Bros. acquisition, signaling a significant regulatory hurdle for future large-scale M&A to accelerate growth.
Fell notably by 2.1%
$85.36 -> $83.54
2026-02-27
Q4 2025 Earnings
Details: The company reported strong Q4 results, including robust revenue growth of 18% YoY, which likely surpassed investor expectations and indicated strong business momentum entering the new year.
Surged 13.8%
$84.59 -> $96.24
2026-04-06
Tentative WGA Labor Agreement
Details: Averting an immediate strike, Netflix and Hollywood studios reached a tentative four-year deal with the Writers Guild, providing some stability to the content production pipeline.
Flat (0.3%)
$98.66 -> $98.93
2026-04-16
Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance
Details: Revenue grew 16% YoY to $12.25B, beating estimates. However, the stock plummeted on weak full-year revenue growth guidance (12-14%) and a margin forecast (31.5%) that missed consensus.
Crashed 9.7%
$107.79 -> $97.31
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Volatility is spiking (3M at 46% vs 1Y at 34%), signaling rising fear. This, combined with the Bearish sentiment from weak guidance, mandates a Conservative size despite a widening moat.

Diversification Alternatives
SPOT
SECTOR

Offers exposure to the subscription model in the less mature audio streaming market, avoiding Netflix's specific video saturation and content cost issues.

Core Thesis: The investment thesis is driven by margin expansion from new verticals like podcasts and a long runway for growth in international audio markets.
NTDOY
SECTOR

A superior business model built on evergreen, owned IP (Mario, Zelda), which avoids the high-cost, continuous content treadmill that challenges Netflix.

Core Thesis: The core thesis is based on a high-margin, durable IP portfolio that monetizes across gaming, merchandise, and entertainment, insulated from streaming wars.
How Is The Market Pricing NFLX?

N/A

N/A

What will confirm the thesis

N/A

What will damage the thesis

N/A

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

N/A

Repricing Catalyst

N/A

What NFLX Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on N/A
NFLX Evolution: Price Return by Era
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-11 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Downtrend · - ▾
2 Momentum Deteriorating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Flat ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Consistent Pressure ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Price Intelligence is derived from price-volume pattern analysis only. All moving averages are simple (SMA). Relative strength benchmarked against SPY.

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Core Cache Last Updated: 5/29/2026