Micron Technology (MU)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $352.37 | Market Cap: $396.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Micron Technology (MU)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $352.37Market Cap: $396.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 127%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 305% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% | Key risksMU key risks include [1] intense competition from emerging state-owned entities and [2] targeted geopolitical actions, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 31 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 31 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 127%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 305% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56% |
| Key risksMU key risks include [1] intense competition from emerging state-owned entities and [2] targeted geopolitical actions, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Micron Technology delivered exceptional financial results for Q1 and Q2 Fiscal Year 2026, significantly beating analyst estimates and providing strong forward guidance.
For Q1 FY2026, which ended November 27, 2025, Micron reported an EPS of $4.78, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.77 by $1.01, and revenue of $13.64 billion, up 56.7% year-over-year and exceeding analyst estimates of $12.62 billion. The positive momentum continued into Q2 FY2026 (ended February 26, 2026), with revenue soaring to $23.86 billion, marking a 196.29% increase from the prior year's period, and non-GAAP net income reaching $14.02 billion, or $12.20 per diluted share. The company also issued robust guidance, anticipating its gross margin to reach 68% and EPS to hit $8.42 for Q2 FY2026, with expectations for business performance to further strengthen through fiscal 2026.
2. The stock benefited from a significant surge in demand and pricing across the broader DRAM and NAND memory markets, primarily driven by artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-outs.
DRAM and NAND contract prices experienced substantial increases, with Q4 2025 seeing jumps of 15-20%. This trend accelerated in Q1 2026, as TrendForce dramatically revised its outlook, projecting DRAM contract prices to rise by 90-95% quarter-over-quarter and NAND flash prices by 55-60% quarter-over-quarter. Micron's Q1 FY2026 revenue increase was largely attributed to a 69% rise in DRAM product sales, driven by a mid-30% range increase in average selling prices. The memory market entered 2026 facing structural supply constraints, as AI demand reallocated semiconductor manufacturing capacity towards High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), creating scarcity in conventional DRAM and NAND products and giving Micron increased pricing power.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.1% change in MU stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 81.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 236.38 | 357.22 | 51.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37,378 | 58,119 | 55.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.8% | 41.5% | 81.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.1 | 16.7 | -46.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,122 | 1,126 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 51.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 48.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | -9.1% | 60.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 200.5% change in MU stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 125.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.89 | 357.22 | 200.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,813 | 58,119 | 71.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 41.5% | 125.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.4 | 16.7 | -21.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,118 | 1,126 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 200.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 200.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 54.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | -0.7% | 65.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 282.8% change in MU stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 210.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.32 | 357.22 | 282.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,094 | 58,119 | 99.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 41.5% | 210.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.7 | 16.7 | -37.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,111 | 1,126 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 282.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 282.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 64.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 15.9% | 72.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 526.8% change in MU stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 114.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.99 | 357.22 | 526.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,156 | 58,119 | 114.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.8% | 41.5% | 82.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.0 | 16.7 | 66.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,090 | 1,126 | -3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 526.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 526.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 57.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 94.5% | 66.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MU Return | 24% | -46% | 72% | -1% | 240% | 25% | 385% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -48% | 112% | 23% | 100% | 8% | 327% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MU Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 37% | 63% | 53% | 60% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MU Max Drawdown | -12% | -47% | 0% | -7% | -23% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -54% | -3% | -19% | -25% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WDC, INTC, NVDA, AMD, QCOM. See MU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 528 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 742.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,680 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WDC, INTC, NVDA, AMD, QCOM
In The Past
Micron Technology's stock fell -49.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -49.8% loss requires a 99.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Micron Technology (MU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Micron Technology:
- Micron is like Intel for computer memory chips.
- Micron is like Samsung, but solely focused on making memory and storage chips.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) Products: Semiconductor devices offering low-latency, high-speed data retrieval for various computing applications.
- NAND Products: Non-volatile, re-writable semiconductor storage devices primarily used for data storage.
- NOR Memory Products: Non-volatile, re-writable semiconductor memory devices providing fast read speeds.
- SSDs (Solid State Drives): Storage devices and component-level solutions for enterprise, cloud, client, and consumer markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Based on the company description, Micron Technology primarily designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products as components and solutions to other businesses for integration into their final products. Therefore, its major customers are other companies rather than individuals.
Major customers for Micron Technology typically include large-scale manufacturers and cloud service providers across the following sectors:
- Smartphone and Mobile Device Manufacturers: Companies that integrate Micron's memory and storage into smartphones, tablets, and other mobile devices.
- Example: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- PC, Server, and Enterprise System Manufacturers: Companies that utilize Micron's DRAM, NAND, and SSD solutions for client PCs, enterprise servers, and data center infrastructure.
- Example: Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
- Cloud Service Providers and Hyperscalers: Large technology companies that build and operate massive data centers requiring vast amounts of memory and storage for their cloud computing services.
- Example: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) for its Azure cloud platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- ASML (ASML)
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- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO
Sanjay Mehrotra is the Chairman, President, and CEO of Micron Technology. He co-founded SanDisk Corporation in 1988 and served as its president and CEO from 2011 until its acquisition by Western Digital in 2016 for $19 billion. Mehrotra has over 40 years of experience in the semiconductor memory industry, including engineering and leadership positions at Integrated Device Technology, SEEQ Technology, and Intel Corp. He holds more than 70 patents.
Mark Murphy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark Murphy is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Micron Technology, joining the company in 2022. He is responsible for leading Micron's finance organization and all financial functions, including accounting, tax, treasury, internal audit, and investor relations. Prior to Micron, Murphy served as Executive Vice President and CFO of Qorvo, a semiconductor company. He also held senior leadership positions at Delphi Automotive, MEMC Electronic Materials, and Praxair. Murphy has over 25 years of experience across finance and general management roles in global companies.
Sumit Sadana, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer
Sumit Sadana is the Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer at Micron Technology, a role he assumed in 2017. He is responsible for the company's business units, driving revenue and profitability, and corporate strategy and business development. Sadana previously served as Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer, and General Manager of Enterprise Solutions at SanDisk. His career also includes executive roles at IBM and Freescale Semiconductor. Sadana has completed approximately $40 billion in mergers and acquisitions throughout his career.
Manish Bhatia, Executive Vice President, Global Operations
Manish Bhatia is the Executive Vice President, Global Operations at Micron Technology, a position he has held since October 2017. He is responsible for the company's end-to-end operations, including manufacturing, packaging, quality, and supply chain. Before joining Micron, Bhatia held several executive roles at Western Digital Corporation and SanDisk Corporation, including Executive Vice President of Worldwide Operations at SanDisk. He joined SanDisk in 2006 through the acquisition of Matrix Semiconductor. His earlier career included positions at McKinsey & Company and Saint Gobain Corporation.
Scott J. DeBoer, Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Products Officer
Scott J. DeBoer is the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Products Officer at Micron Technology. He oversees the company's research and development, as well as product development and technology roadmap. DeBoer has held various leadership positions in technology and engineering throughout his career at Micron. His extensive experience includes driving innovation in memory and storage solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Micron Technology's business include:
- Cyclicality and Potential Oversupply in the Memory Market: The memory and storage industry is inherently cyclical, characterized by fluctuating demand, pricing, and profitability. While currently experiencing strong demand, particularly for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) driven by AI, there is a significant risk of future oversupply. Micron and its competitors are undertaking substantial capital expenditures to expand production capacity, which could lead to an imbalance where supply outstrips demand, resulting in declines in average selling prices and compressed profit margins, potentially by late 2026 or 2027.
- Intense Competition in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM): Micron faces fierce competition, especially in the high-growth HBM segment critical for AI applications. Key rivals like SK Hynix and Samsung are aggressively increasing their HBM production capacity and developing next-generation technologies. Reports suggest Micron may be trailing in the HBM4 market, potentially impacting its market share, pricing power, and future profitability in this crucial, high-margin area.
- Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Dependency: A substantial portion of Micron's manufacturing and operational footprint is located in Taiwan. This concentration exposes the company to significant geopolitical risks. Any regional conflict or increased tensions could lead to catastrophic disruptions in Micron's supply chain and manufacturing capabilities, severely impacting its global operations and financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Micron Technology's main products, DRAM, NAND, and NOR memory, operate within substantial addressable markets globally.
-
The global Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) market was valued at approximately USD 121.83 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 223.7 billion by 2034, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.20% during the forecast period. Another estimate placed the global DRAM market size at USD 135.4 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 359.0 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 11.4% from 2025-2033.
-
The global NAND flash memory market was valued at USD 65.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a 5.6% CAGR from 2025 to 2034. Other reports indicate the NAND flash memory market is estimated to be valued at USD 77.81 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach USD 117.00 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.0% from 2026 to 2033. Furthermore, the NAND Flash Memory market was valued at USD 108.25 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 225.68 billion by 2034, advancing at a CAGR of 8.64%.
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The global NOR Flash Market is projected to expand from USD 3.04 billion in 2025 to USD 4.27 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 5.74% between 2026 and 2031. Another analysis forecasts the global NOR Flash Market to reach a valuation of USD 5.27 billion in 2025 and to reach USD 10.73 billion by 2034, recording a CAGR of 8.2% from 2025 to 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Micron Technology (MU) is poised for significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Explosive Demand for AI-Driven High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and Data Center Products: The proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) is creating unprecedented demand for high-performance memory. Micron has reported record revenues in data center DRAM and HBM, with HBM shipments ahead of plan. The company has sold out its entire HBM output for calendar year 2025 and has secured agreements for its calendar 2026 HBM supply, including the advanced HBM4. The HBM market is projected to expand significantly, with estimates indicating growth from approximately $35 billion in 2025 to nearly $100 billion by 2028.
- Overall DRAM and NAND Market Recovery and Improved Pricing: Following a period of oversupply, the broader memory market for both DRAM and NAND products is experiencing a robust recovery. Tight supply conditions across the industry are leading to increased pricing power for memory manufacturers like Micron. The company expects these tight market conditions to persist beyond calendar 2026. This environment is contributing to significantly improved gross margins and overall revenue expansion.
- Technological Leadership and New Product Ramps: Micron's continuous investment in advanced technology nodes, such as the 1-gamma DRAM and G9 NAND, is a crucial driver. The 1-gamma DRAM node offers higher bit density and improved power efficiency, while the ramp of HBM4 is expected to command higher average selling prices (ASPs). These technological advancements enhance Micron's competitive edge and enable the delivery of higher-value, higher-margin products.
- Recovery in Traditional End Markets: Beyond the dominant AI segment, Micron is also observing improvements in demand across other key end markets. This includes the recovery of inventories in client (PC) and smartphone markets, as well as strengthening demand in broad distribution, industrial, and parts of the automotive sectors. This broader market stabilization and growth will contribute to overall revenue diversification and stability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Micron's annual share buybacks amounted to $425 million in 2023 and $300 million in 2024.
- The company conducted $300 million in share repurchases during the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended November 27, 2025.
- Micron completed $300 million in share repurchases under the CHIPS definitive agreement.
Capital Expenditures
- Micron invested $13.8 billion in capital expenditures during fiscal 2025.
- The company anticipates fiscal 2026 capital expenditures to be approximately $20 billion, an increase from fiscal 2025, primarily focused on 1γ DRAM and HBM-related investments, DRAM front-end equipment, and fab construction.
- For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, capital expenditures were $4.5 billion.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MU.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 01162026 | MU | Micron Technology | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 02282023 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 56.2% | -6.8% |
| 08312022 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 24.8% | -13.5% |
| 10312018 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.1% | 26.1% | -23.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 184.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 268.9 |
| Rev LTM | 48,860 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,950 |
| FCF LTM | 8,508 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,973 |
| CFO LTM | 12,044 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,473 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 268.9 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| P/EBIT | 26.1 |
| P/E | 25.0 |
| P/CFO | 28.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 92.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 290.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 72.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 253.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile and Client Business Unit (MCBU) | 11,667 | ||||
| Core Data Center Business Unit (CDBU) | 4,984 | ||||
| Automotive and Embedded Business Unit (AEBU) | 4,631 | ||||
| Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) | 3,792 | ||||
| All Other | 37 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 25 |
| Unallocated | 0 | ||||
| Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU) | 5,710 | 13,693 | 12,280 | 9,184 | |
| Embedded Business Unit (EBU) | 3,637 | 5,235 | 4,209 | 2,759 | |
| Mobile Business Unit (MBU) | 3,630 | 7,260 | 7,203 | 5,702 | |
| Storage Business Unit (SBU) | 2,553 | 4,553 | 3,973 | 3,765 | |
| Total | 25,111 | 15,540 | 30,758 | 27,705 | 21,435 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive and Embedded Business Unit (AEBU) | 432 | ||||
| Unallocated | 356 | -1,913 | -579 | -1,384 | -416 |
| Core Data Center Business Unit (CDBU) | 255 | ||||
| Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) | 244 | ||||
| All Other | 18 | 8 | 12 | 20 | -2 |
| Mobile and Client Business Unit (MCBU) | -1 | ||||
| Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU) | -585 | 5,844 | 4,295 | 2,010 | |
| Embedded Business Unit (EBU) | 382 | 1,752 | 1,006 | 301 | |
| Mobile Business Unit (MBU) | -1,750 | 2,160 | 2,173 | 1,074 | |
| Storage Business Unit (SBU) | -1,887 | 513 | 173 | 36 | |
| Total | 1,304 | -5,745 | 9,702 | 6,283 | 3,003 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $357.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 401.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/16/1989 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $404.70 | $238.38 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -11.7% | 49.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.5% | 64.3% |
| Downside Capture | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| Upside Capture | 382.66 | 279.63 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 43.8% | 64.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.90 | 2.19 | 2.71 | 2.98 | 2.14 | 2.02 |
| Up Beta | 2.19 | 1.69 | 3.23 | 3.03 | 1.89 | 1.85 |
| Down Beta | 0.87 | 1.06 | 1.84 | 2.78 | 2.62 | 2.23 |
| Up Capture | 204% | 534% | 646% | 1025% | 807% | 2746% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 31 | 73 | 144 | 398 |
| Down Capture | 224% | 128% | 116% | 145% | 123% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 30 | 51 | 107 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 291.1% | 64.1% | 2.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.4% | 26.8% | 0.73 | 72.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 64.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 27.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 29.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 32.1% | 49.7% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 15.4% | 24.6% | 0.56 | 66.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 60.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 11.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 29.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 25.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 41.8% | 48.5% | 0.91 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.8% | 24.3% | 0.79 | 66.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 60.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 20.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 18.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/18/2026 | -3.8% | -17.2% | |
| 12/17/2025 | 10.2% | 27.1% | 61.9% |
| 9/23/2025 | -2.8% | 0.5% | 19.3% |
| 6/25/2025 | -1.0% | -4.3% | -12.5% |
| 3/20/2025 | -8.0% | -11.5% | -35.1% |
| 12/18/2024 | -16.2% | -13.6% | 5.3% |
| 9/25/2024 | 14.7% | 4.3% | 11.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -7.1% | -3.9% | -23.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 15 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -6.4% | -10.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.7% | 27.1% | 61.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -17.2% | -35.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/19/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/07/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 07/01/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 3/18/2026 | Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 12/17/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 32.75 Bil | 33.50 Bil | 34.25 Bil | 79.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 18.70 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Gross margin | 81.0% | 20.9% | 14.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 67.0% for Q2 2026 | ||
| Q3 2026 Operating expenses | 1.60 Bil | 2.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.56 Bil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 18.5 | 18.9 | 19.3 | 130.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 8.19 for Q2 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arnzen, April S | EVP and Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 277.09 | 15,000 | 4,156,350 | 45,891,092 | Form |
| 2 | Gomo, Steven J | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 263.63 | 5,000 | 1,318,150 | 5,045,615 | Form | |
| 3 | Mehrotra, Sanjay | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 241.34 | 8,757 | 2,113,441 | 96,614,699 | Form |
| 4 | Mehrotra, Sanjay | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 233.39 | 3,743 | 873,567 | 92,556,142 | Form |
| 5 | Murphy, Mark J | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 225.31 | 126,000 | 28,389,111 | 49,499,119 | Form |
MU Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Micron scores a 9 (Overweight) because it represents a rare confluence of factors: a powerful, secular tailwind (AI) driving a cyclical supercycle, a widening competitive moat in the most critical technology (HBM), and elite operational execution leading to record profitability. The risk-reward is favorable, and the primary leading indicators for its business are strongly positive. This is a 'Fat Pitch' opportunity to own a core enabler of the AI revolution during its peak earnings upcycle.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: Cyclical Opportunity (Secular Cyclical)Micron's business is fundamentally tied to the supply and demand cycles of memory chips. The current thesis hinges on an AI-driven 'supercycle,' a structural demand shift that creates a powerful cyclical upswing, which is the textbook definition of a Secular Cyclical opportunity.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for Micron is the structural shift in demand for high-performance memory, particularly High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), driven by the generative AI infrastructure buildout. This has created a severe supply-demand imbalance, granting Micron unprecedented pricing power, which is transforming its profitability and shifting its revenue mix toward higher, more durable margins.
- DRAM contract prices are forecasted to increase 90-95% QoQ in calendar Q1 2026.
- The entire 2026 supply of HBM chips is already sold out under long-term agreements.
- Gross margin expanded to 56.8% in Q1 FY26 and is guided to accelerate to 68% in Q2 FY26, demonstrating extreme pricing power.
- Data Center revenue, the core of the AI thesis, surged 137% YoY in FY2025 to become 56% of total sales.
PRIMARY RISK
The single largest risk is the eventual normalization of the supply/demand imbalance. Competitors, notably SK Hynix and Samsung, are making significant capital investments (e.g., SK Hynix's $15B expansion) to increase capacity for HBM and advanced DRAM. If this new supply comes online faster than expected or if demand from hyperscalers moderates after 2026, it could lead to a classic cyclical downturn with sharp price erosion and margin compression.
- SK Hynix announced a $15 billion investment to significantly expand next-generation memory manufacturing.
- The memory industry is historically prone to boom-bust cycles driven by capital spending.
- The primary bear case is a commodity price crash following a potential 'digestion' period in hyperscaler CapEx post-2026.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated Gross Margin % | Sustain >60% | This is the clearest indicator of sustained pricing power. A margin above 60% validates that the AI-driven structural changes are holding and the market is not reverting to commodity dynamics. |
| Data Center Revenue Growth (YoY) | >50% YoY | This tracks the health of the core Alpha Driver. Any significant deceleration below 50% would signal that the AI infrastructure buildout is slowing, posing a major risk to the thesis. |
| Forward Revenue Guidance (Next Quarter) | Sequential Growth | In a strong upcycle, momentum is critical. Any guidance that implies a sequential decline in revenue would be a major red flag, suggesting the peak of the cycle may have been reached. |
AI Supercycle vs. Historical Boom-Bust Cycle
BULL VIEW
Unprecedented pricing power from the AI-driven HBM supply deficit will lead to sustained record gross margins above 60% and triple-digit Data Center revenue growth.
CORE TENSION
Bulls believe the AI-driven demand for HBM creates a structural supercycle. Bears see a classic, competitor-fueled CapEx boom leading to an inevitable supply glut and price collapse.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Micron's entire 2026 supply of HBM is sold out and management guided to a record 68% gross margin for Q2 FY26, confirming extreme near-term pricing power.
BEAR VIEW
Aggressive CapEx from SK Hynix ($15B) and Samsung will create a memory supply glut in late 2026, causing a price crash and severe margin compression.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late March 2026 | FY26 Q2 Earnings Call Watch: Q3 guidance. Watch for Gross Margin guidance to remain above 65% and Data Center revenue growth to show continued sequential acceleration from Q1's +100% YoY. |
April 2026 | Hyperscaler Earnings Calls (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN) Watch: Listen for commentary on CapEx 'optimization' or 'capital efficiency'. Any shift away from front-loading AI infrastructure spend is a major red flag for memory demand. |
Late June 2026 | FY26 Q3 Earnings Call Watch: Q4 guidance. Focus on forward-looking HBM commentary. Any sign that the 2027 order book is not filling up as robustly as 2026 would be a negative signal. |
H2 2026 | Competitor Capacity Updates (SK Hynix/Samsung) Watch: News of accelerated fab construction timelines or better-than-expected yields from competitors. Watch for industry analysts like TrendForce revising long-term forecasts from 'shortage' to 'oversupply'. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
9/23/2025 | Q4 FY2025 Earnings & Guidance Details: Reported record Q4 revenue of $11.32B (+46% YoY) and record FY25 revenue of $37.4B. Cloud Memory unit revenue was $4.54B with 59% gross margin. | Modest 1.1% gain $164.45 -> $166.23 |
10/9/2025 | Competitor Secures Nvidia Approval Details: Reports indicated that competitor Samsung received approval from Nvidia for its HBM3E chips, potentially increasing supply competition for future Nvidia platforms. | Fell notably by -2.1% $196.46 -> $192.25 |
12/10/2025 | CHIPS Act Funding Finalized Details: The U.S. Commerce Department finalized an award of up to $6.165 billion in direct funding to support Micron's fab construction in New York and Idaho. | Rose significantly by 4.5% $252.31 -> $263.60 |
12/17/2025 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Reported record Q1 revenue of $13.64B (+57% YoY) and Gross Margin of 56.8%. Guided Q2 revenue to a record $18.7B with margins expanding to 68%. | Surged +10.2% $225.42 -> $248.44 |
3/18/2026 | SK Group Chairman Comments on Shortage Details: SK Group's chairman stated the global memory chip shortage will likely persist until 2030, suggesting supply will lag demand by over 20% for years. | Flat (0.0%) $461.69 -> $461.73 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.6x S&P) with Spiking near-term uncertainty. While fundamentals are stellar (Bullish sentiment, Widening Moat), this volatility profile caps position size to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
SMCI
SECTORA direct beneficiary of the AI server buildout without the commodity price cyclicality of memory chips. Offers faster, more flexible solutions than large OEMs.
VRT
SECTORA 'picks and shovels' play on the same AI data center trend, but focused on power and cooling infrastructure. This avoids the memory price risk inherent in MU.
Micron is re-rating from a cyclical memory chip provider to a core enabler of the AI infrastructure buildout, with its valuation now driven by long-term demand for high-value products like HBM rather than just commodity memory cycles, trading at a Trailing P/E of 40.70.
Filter all news through the lens of the AI-driven memory supercycle: Is the news confirming sustained, high-margin demand from AI data centers, or does it signal a return to cyclical, commodity-driven dynamics?
Sustained >20% quarterly price increases in DRAM and NAND; announcements of long-term agreements for HBM with hyperscalers (e.g., Nvidia, Google, Amazon); competitor commentary (Samsung, SK Hynix) confirming disciplined supply and capex; upward revisions to AI server growth forecasts.
Aggressive, unannounced capacity expansion from Chinese competitors (e.g., YMTC targeting >15% NAND share); a slowdown in AI accelerator demand from key customers; significant inventory builds at hyperscalers signaling demand saturation; a breakdown in industry supply discipline leading to a price war.
Quarterly fluctuations in PC or smartphone unit sales — the primary driver is now high-value data center demand; short-term commodity spot price swings — long-term contract pricing is more indicative of the thesis; minor market share shifts of 1-2% between the top 3 players — the overall market pricing power is more important.
Repricing Catalyst
The structural shift in demand caused by generative AI, which requires massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-density DRAM/NAND. This has created a supply-constrained environment, giving Micron significant pricing power. The company's entire 2026 HBM supply is reportedly committed under long-term agreements, transforming a significant portion of its revenue from cyclical to recurring, driving record gross margins (guided to 68% for Q2 FY26) and profitability (guided to $8.42 EPS for Q2 FY26).
Cloud & AI Memory (DRAM)
$21.2B TTM (39% of Total) · 66% MarginWhat It Is
High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), DDR5/DDR4 high-capacity DIMMs, LPDDR5, and GDDR6 memory products for AI accelerators and hyperscale servers.
Who Pays & How
Hyperscale cloud providers (e.g. Google, Amazon, Microsoft) and AI hardware leaders (e.g. Nvidia) pay for essential high-performance memory needed to run AI training and inference workloads. Qualification for these platforms creates high switching costs and a 2-3 year design cycle lock-in.
Competition
Mobile & PC Memory (DRAM & NAND)
$17.0B TTM (31% of Total) · 54% MarginWhat It Is
LPDDR5/LPDDR4 DRAM, managed NAND, and client SSDs (Solid State Drives) for smartphones, PCs, and laptops.
Who Pays & How
Major smartphone and PC OEMs (e.g., Apple, Dell, HP) pay for qualified memory and storage components essential for their devices. Long qualification cycles and deep supply chain integration create stickiness for the lifespan of a product model.
Competition
Core Enterprise & Data Center Storage (NAND)
$9.6B TTM (17% of Total) · 51% MarginWhat It Is
Enterprise-grade SSDs (e.g., PCIe Gen6), QLC/TLC NAND components for storage arrays.
Who Pays & How
Enterprise OEM server makers (e.g., Dell, HPE) and cloud providers pay for high-performance, reliable solid-state storage for their systems. Extensive validation and qualification processes create significant switching costs.
Competition
Automotive & Embedded
$6.9B TTM (13% of Total) · 45% MarginWhat It Is
Automotive-grade LPDRAM, NAND, and NOR memory for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI), advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), and industrial IoT devices.
Who Pays & How
Automotive OEMs, Tier-1 suppliers, and industrial equipment manufacturers pay for highly reliable, long-lifecycle memory and storage qualified for harsh operating environments. Design cycles are very long (5-7 years), creating extremely high switching costs.
Competition
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