Tearsheet

Microsoft (MSFT)


Market Price (11/5/2025): $513.8 | Market Cap: $3.8 Tril
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Microsoft (MSFT)


Market Price (11/5/2025): $513.8
Market Cap: $3.8 Tril
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -7.1%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 78 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 78 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -7.1%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

MSFT Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MSFT Return43%52%-28%58%13%23%245%
Peers Return47%26%-40%57%23%8%130%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MSFT Win Rate67%75%25%67%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%62%28%72%67%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MSFT Max Drawdown-14%-5%-36%-7%-2%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-11%-6%-43%-9%-15%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, GEN, S. See MSFT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMSFTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven224 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven85 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven81 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven144.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1703 days1480 days

Compare to AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, GEN, S


In The Past

Microsoft's stock fell -37.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -37.6% loss requires a 60.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Microsoft (MSFT)

Better Bets than Microsoft (MSFT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MSFT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%0.0%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
7.4%7.4%0.0%
MSFT_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
37.6%38.2%-5.5%
MSFT_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
42.7%58.2%-7.3%
MSFT_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.7%33.9%-16.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%0.0%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
7.4%7.4%0.0%
MSFT_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
37.6%38.2%-5.5%
MSFT_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
42.7%58.2%-7.3%
MSFT_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.7%33.9%-16.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Microsoft

Financials

MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNGENSMedian
NameMicrosoftApple Alphabet Amazon.c.Gen Digi.Sentinel. 
Mkt Price514.33270.04277.54249.3225.8716.87259.68
Mkt Cap3,823.04,024.43,354.32,652.016.05.63,003.2
Rev LTM293,812408,625385,477670,0384,227907339,644
Op Inc LTM135,937130,214124,07776,1901,660-328100,134
FCF LTM78,01796,18473,55213,4811,3491743,516
FCF 3Y Avg71,302100,50368,99821,6771,398-4445,337
CFO LTM147,039108,565151,424121,1371,36641114,851
CFO 3Y Avg121,384111,559120,99096,9771,412-22104,268

Growth & Margins

MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNGENSMedian
NameMicrosoftApple Alphabet Amazon.c.Gen Digi.Sentinel. 
Rev Chg LTM15.6%6.0%13.4%10.9%10.6%25.4%12.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.2%1.8%11.0%11.3%14.8%45.6%12.2%
Rev Chg Q18.4%9.6%15.9%13.3%30.3%21.7%17.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.3%2.1%3.8%3.0%7.4%5.0%4.0%
Op Mgn LTM46.3%31.9%32.2%11.4%39.3%-36.2%32.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg44.6%30.8%29.9%7.9%36.6%-53.2%30.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.1%-0.5%0.3%-1.9%2.1%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM50.0%26.6%39.3%18.1%32.3%4.5%29.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg47.2%28.4%35.3%15.8%36.3%-5.5%31.9%
FCF/Rev LTM26.6%23.5%19.1%2.0%31.9%1.8%21.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg28.0%25.6%20.5%3.5%35.9%-8.7%23.1%

Valuation

MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNGENSMedian
NameMicrosoftApple Alphabet Amazon.c.Gen Digi.Sentinel. 
Mkt Cap3,823.04,024.43,354.32,652.016.05.63,003.2
P/S13.09.88.74.03.86.27.4
P/EBIT29.430.922.031.19.8-18.325.7
P/E36.440.527.037.626.7-13.031.7
P/CFO26.037.122.221.911.7137.324.1
Total Yield3.4%2.8%4.0%2.7%5.7%-7.7%3.1%
Dividend Yield0.6%0.4%0.3%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%3.1%3.3%1.1%9.1%-1.0%2.7%
D/E0.00.00.00.10.60.00.0
Net D/E-0.00.0-0.00.00.5-0.10.0

Returns

MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNGENSMedian
NameMicrosoftApple Alphabet Amazon.c.Gen Digi.Sentinel. 
1M Rtn-0.6%4.7%13.1%13.6%-7.0%-6.0%2.0%
3M Rtn-2.4%33.1%42.7%16.6%-9.1%-2.0%7.3%
6M Rtn19.1%36.4%70.4%34.8%1.4%-10.0%26.9%
12M Rtn26.9%22.2%64.7%27.3%-6.8%-33.8%24.5%
3Y Rtn138.1%97.9%222.8%174.0%24.5%-4.4%118.0%
1M Excs Rtn-3.2%4.7%10.4%12.4%-7.2%-6.3%0.8%
3M Excs Rtn-8.6%19.9%34.9%5.4%-16.2%-9.3%-1.6%
6M Excs Rtn-1.7%15.6%49.6%14.0%-19.3%-30.8%6.2%
12M Excs Rtn8.8%1.4%44.2%15.1%-28.3%-53.3%5.1%
3Y Excs Rtn49.9%2.5%116.6%67.5%-51.3%-101.5%26.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Productivity and Business Processes106,82069,27463,36453,91546,398
Intelligent Cloud87,46487,90774,96560,08048,366
More Personal Computing50,83854,73459,94154,09348,251
Total245,122211,915198,270168,088143,015


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Productivity and Business Processes59,66134,18929,69024,35118,724
Intelligent Cloud37,81337,88433,20326,12618,324
More Personal Computing11,95916,45020,49019,43915,911
Total109,43388,52383,38369,91652,959


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity52,344,880
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-4.7%
Average Daily Volume17,554,205
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.98
Basic Shares Quantity7,433,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024129202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023130202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022124202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021125202210-Q 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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