Tearsheet

Microsoft (MSFT)


Market Price (12/3/2025): $490.45 | Market Cap: $3.6 Tril
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Microsoft (MSFT)


Market Price (12/3/2025): $490.45
Market Cap: $3.6 Tril
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 78 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, Digital Content & Streaming, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 78 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, Digital Content & Streaming, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MSFT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Microsoft (MSFT) experienced a stock decline of approximately 3.1% between August 31, 2025, and December 3, 2025, influenced by several key factors:

1. Weak Q3 Revenue Guidance and Supply Chain Issues: In late August and early September 2025, Microsoft's stock drifted lower following its Q2 2025 earnings report. This decline was primarily attributed to management's Q3 revenue forecast falling short of consensus estimates, coupled with slower Azure execution and supply chain bottlenecks, despite a strong performance in cloud and AI.

2. Increased Capital Spending Forecast and OpenAI Investment Losses: Microsoft's shares fell in late October 2025 after the company signaled plans to further increase capital spending in fiscal year 2026. This was alongside the revelation that losses tied to its investment in OpenAI had reduced net income and diluted earnings per share, despite the company reporting stronger-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MSFT Return43%52%-28%58%13%17%227%
Peers Return47%26%-40%57%23%12%139%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MSFT Win Rate67%75%25%67%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%62%28%72%67%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MSFT Max Drawdown-14%-5%-36%-7%-2%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-11%-6%-43%-9%-15%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, GEN, S. See MSFT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/2/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMSFTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven224 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven85 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven81 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven144.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1703 days1480 days

Compare to AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, GEN, S


In The Past

Microsoft's stock fell -37.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -37.6% loss requires a 60.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Microsoft (MSFT)

Better Bets than Microsoft (MSFT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MSFT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.5%1.5%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.9%4.9%0.0%
MSFT_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
37.6%30.4%-5.5%
MSFT_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
42.7%58.2%-7.3%
MSFT_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.7%33.9%-16.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.5%1.5%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.9%4.9%0.0%
MSFT_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
37.6%30.4%-5.5%
MSFT_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
42.7%58.2%-7.3%
MSFT_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022MSFTMicrosoftMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.7%33.9%-16.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Microsoft

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNGENSMedian
NameMicrosoftApple Alphabet Amazon.c.Gen Digi.Sentinel. 
Mkt Price490.00286.19315.81234.4226.2516.61260.31
Mkt Cap3,642.24,265.13,816.92,493.516.25.53,067.8
Rev LTM293,812408,625385,477670,0384,473907339,644
Op Inc LTM135,937130,214124,07776,1901,697-328100,134
FCF LTM78,01796,18473,55213,4811,3001743,516
FCF 3Y Avg71,302100,50368,99821,6771,463-4445,337
CFO LTM147,039108,565151,424121,1371,32441114,851
CFO 3Y Avg121,384111,559120,99096,9771,480-22104,268

Growth & Margins

MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNGENSMedian
NameMicrosoftApple Alphabet Amazon.c.Gen Digi.Sentinel. 
Rev Chg LTM15.6%6.0%13.4%10.9%16.2%25.4%14.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.2%1.8%11.0%11.3%16.5%45.6%12.2%
Rev Chg Q18.4%9.6%15.9%13.3%25.3%21.7%17.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.3%2.1%3.8%3.0%5.8%5.0%4.0%
Op Mgn LTM46.3%31.9%32.2%11.4%37.9%-36.2%32.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg44.6%30.8%29.9%7.9%36.7%-53.2%30.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.1%-0.5%0.3%-1.3%2.1%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM50.0%26.6%39.3%18.1%29.6%4.5%28.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg47.2%28.4%35.3%15.8%37.1%-5.5%31.9%
FCF/Rev LTM26.6%23.5%19.1%2.0%29.1%1.8%21.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg28.0%25.6%20.5%3.5%36.7%-8.7%23.1%

Valuation

MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNGENSMedian
NameMicrosoftApple Alphabet Amazon.c.Gen Digi.Sentinel. 
Mkt Cap3,642.24,265.13,816.92,493.516.25.53,067.8
P/S13.19.37.63.53.96.77.1
P/EBIT29.629.119.327.410.9-19.823.4
P/E36.738.223.633.130.7-14.131.9
P/CFO26.235.019.419.313.2148.822.8
Total Yield3.4%3.0%4.6%3.0%5.0%-7.1%3.2%
Dividend Yield0.6%0.4%0.3%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%3.1%3.3%1.1%9.5%-1.0%2.7%
D/E0.00.00.00.10.50.00.0
Net D/E-0.00.0-0.00.00.5-0.10.0

Returns

MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNGENSMedian
NameMicrosoftApple Alphabet Amazon.c.Gen Digi.Sentinel. 
1M Rtn-5.2%6.0%12.3%-4.0%0.1%-6.9%-2.0%
3M Rtn-2.8%24.7%49.6%4.0%-10.6%-6.2%0.6%
6M Rtn6.2%41.1%90.4%14.0%-8.2%-8.5%10.1%
12M Rtn14.5%20.0%85.0%11.3%-13.6%-39.4%12.9%
3Y Rtn96.7%96.5%216.6%149.0%17.5%12.4%96.6%
1M Excs Rtn-5.0%6.1%12.5%-3.9%0.2%-6.8%-1.8%
3M Excs Rtn-8.8%14.2%31.1%-2.2%-17.0%-13.7%-5.5%
6M Excs Rtn-8.2%26.7%76.1%-0.4%-22.6%-22.9%-4.3%
12M Excs Rtn2.8%8.5%73.6%0.1%-27.2%-54.7%1.5%
3Y Excs Rtn33.1%26.5%156.6%81.3%-48.6%-67.8%29.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Productivity and Business Processes106,82069,27463,36453,91546,398
Intelligent Cloud87,46487,90774,96560,08048,366
More Personal Computing50,83854,73459,94154,09348,251
Total245,122211,915198,270168,088143,015


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Productivity and Business Processes59,66134,18929,69024,35118,724
Intelligent Cloud37,81337,88433,20326,12618,324
More Personal Computing11,95916,45020,49019,43915,911
Total109,43388,52383,38369,91652,959


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity48,553,497
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.6%
Average Daily Volume23,988,414
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.02
Basic Shares Quantity7,433,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024129202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023130202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022124202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021125202210-Q 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0SMITH BRADFORD LVice Chair and President11042025Sell518.4930,41115,767,821243,527,700Form