Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -133%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.1 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -160%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include mRNA Technology, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -52%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -29%
3   Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
4   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -108%
5   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 129%
6   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
7   Key risks
MRNA key risks include [1] sharply declining COVID-19 vaccine demand coupled with intense competition in the respiratory vaccine market, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include mRNA Technology, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -133%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.1 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -160%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -52%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -29%
7 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
8 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -108%
9 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 129%
10 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
11 Key risks
MRNA key risks include [1] sharply declining COVID-19 vaccine demand coupled with intense competition in the respiratory vaccine market, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Moderna (MRNA) stock has gained about 100% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Positive Five-Year Follow-Up Data for Personalized Cancer Vaccine (mRNA-4157).

In late January 2026, Moderna released five-year follow-up data for its personalized cancer vaccine, mRNA-4157 (V940), developed in partnership with Merck & Co. The data demonstrated a sustained 49% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death in high-risk melanoma patients. This long-term durability served as a significant "proof of concept" for mRNA technology in treating chronic diseases, catalyzing an "extraordinary run-up" in the stock, with Moderna gaining 83% year-to-date by mid-March 2026.

2. FDA Grants Expedited Review for Seasonal Flu Vaccine (mRNA-1010).

In February 2026, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted an expedited review for Moderna's investigational seasonal flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, setting a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) goal date of August 5, 2026. This positive development followed a previous "Refusal-to-File" letter from the FDA. The expedited review positions Moderna to potentially compete in the 2026/2027 flu season with a product that clinical trials suggest is 26.6% more effective than traditional egg-based vaccines for adults over 50. The influenza vaccine filing was also accepted for regulatory review in the EU, Canada, and Australia in February 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 97.8% change in MRNA stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 127.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020253202026Change
Stock Price ($)25.9851.3897.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,2021,922-12.7%
P/S Multiple4.610.5127.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)390392-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution97.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MRNA97.8% 
Market (SPY)-4.8%34.4%
Sector (XLV)-7.8%42.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 113.3% change in MRNA stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 242.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120253202026Change
Stock Price ($)24.0951.38113.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,0551,922-37.1%
P/S Multiple3.110.5242.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)388392-1.0%
Cumulative Contribution113.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MRNA113.3% 
Market (SPY)1.1%29.4%
Sector (XLV)6.2%42.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 66.0% change in MRNA stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 179.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820253202026Change
Stock Price ($)30.9651.3866.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,1991,922-39.9%
P/S Multiple3.710.5179.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)387392-1.3%
Cumulative Contribution66.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MRNA66.0% 
Market (SPY)10.4%37.5%
Sector (XLV)-1.1%49.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -63.0% change in MRNA stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -89.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820233202026Change
Stock Price ($)138.8151.38-63.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)18,8751,922-89.8%
P/S Multiple2.910.5267.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)388392-1.0%
Cumulative Contribution-63.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MRNA-63.0% 
Market (SPY)70.3%31.4%
Sector (XLV)19.6%34.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MRNA Return143%-29%-45%-58%-29%78%-50%
Peers Return1%4%-39%-13%-24%-4%-60%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-3%76%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MRNA Win Rate67%50%25%42%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate50%58%42%38%45%27% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MRNA Max Drawdown0%-54%-61%-63%-46%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-38%-54%-35%-50%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-3% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PFE, ALNY, SRPT, AKTS, ALPS. See MRNA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMRNAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-85.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven597.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven69 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-56.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven131.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven205 days120 days

Compare to PFE, ALNY, SRPT, AKTS, ALPS

In The Past

Moderna's stock fell -85.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/9/2021. A -85.7% loss requires a 597.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Moderna (MRNA)

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States and internationally. The company has 44 development programs, which includes 26 in clinical trials across seven modalities comprising prophylactic vaccines, systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic intracellular therapeutics, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. The company has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Moderna (MRNA):

  • It's like Pfizer or Merck, but focused entirely on developing its wide range of vaccines and therapeutics using groundbreaking messenger RNA (mRNA) technology.

  • Consider it a biotech powerhouse, similar to Johnson & Johnson in its ambition to develop diverse medical solutions, but with its entire pipeline built upon the foundational messenger RNA (mRNA) platform.

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  • mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine (Spikevax): An authorized vaccine utilizing mRNA technology to protect against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
  • mRNA Prophylactic Vaccines: A pipeline of investigational vaccines designed to prevent various infectious diseases.
  • mRNA Therapeutics: Developing a range of mRNA-based medicines for treating conditions such as cancer, rare diseases, cardiovascular, and autoimmune diseases.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Based on the provided company description, Moderna (MRNA) engages in strategic alliances and collaboration and license agreements with various entities. While these relationships are primarily for development and licensing, these partners often represent significant revenue streams and can be considered major customers for specific programs, technologies, or licensed products. Moderna, as a biotechnology company, primarily sells its products and intellectual property to other companies, governments, and healthcare systems, rather than directly to individuals.

The major public company customers identified through these strategic alliances and collaborations are:

  • AstraZeneca PLC (Symbol: AZN)
  • Merck & Co., Inc. (Symbol: MRK)
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (Symbol: VRTX)

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  • Lonza Group AG (LONN.SW)
  • Catalent, Inc. (CTLT)
  • Laboratorios Farmacéuticos Rovi, S.A. (ROVI.MC)

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Stéphane Bancel – Chief Executive Officer

Stéphane Bancel has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Moderna since 2011, and is also a co-founder of the company. Prior to his tenure at Moderna, he was the CEO of the French diagnostics company BioMérieux from 2007 to 2011, where he was recognized for improving the company's financial margins. He also held various leadership roles at Eli Lilly and Company between 2000 and 2006, including managing director for Belgium and executive director of global manufacturing strategy and supply chain. Bancel is a partner at Flagship Pioneering and has served on the boards of companies such as Qiagen and Indigo Agriculture. He holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and master's degrees in engineering from CentraleSupélec and the University of Minnesota.

Jamey Mock – Chief Financial Officer

Jamey Mock was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Moderna in August 2022. Before joining Moderna, he served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of PerkinElmer, a life sciences and scientific instrument firm, from 2018. During his time at PerkinElmer, he oversaw the acquisition of BioLegend in 2021. Prior to PerkinElmer, Mock spent nearly two decades at General Electric (GE) in various finance and leadership positions. His career is characterized by consistent roles, having worked for only three companies.

Stephen Hoge, M.D. – President

Stephen Hoge has been Moderna's President and Head of Research since 2015. In this role, he leads the company's research and development initiatives, encompassing basic science, clinical development, regulatory affairs, and therapeutic areas. He joined Moderna in 2012 as Senior Vice President of Corporate Development. Before his time at Moderna, Dr. Hoge was a partner at McKinsey & Company and previously worked as an emergency room doctor in New York City.

Shannon Thyme Klinger – Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary

Shannon Thyme Klinger is Moderna's Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary, responsible for the company's legal strategies, governance, and corporate compliance. She also holds the position of President of the Moderna Charitable Foundation. Before joining Moderna in 2021, Klinger spent over ten years at Novartis in senior leadership roles, including Chief Legal Officer, Chief Ethics, Risk & Compliance Officer, Global Head of Litigation, and General Counsel.

Jerh Collins, Ph.D. – Chief Technical Operations and Quality Officer

Jerh Collins oversees Moderna's vaccine manufacturing, including quality, technical development, and supply across preclinical, clinical, and commercial programs. He joined Moderna in 2017. With over 30 years of leadership experience in the pharmaceutical industry, his background includes significant roles at companies such as Novartis and Merck.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Moderna's business:
  1. Declining COVID-19 Vaccine Revenue and Dependence: Moderna faces a significant challenge with the rapid decline in demand for its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which was its primary revenue source. The company is transitioning from being a pandemic-driven powerhouse to a diversified biotech, and this shift is accompanied by a substantial drop in revenue and a "painful, but necessary, financial reset." Moderna's financial health is still heavily reliant on COVID-19 vaccine sales, with projections showing a continued decrease in revenue in the coming years.
  2. Pipeline Execution and Intense Competition: To offset the decreasing COVID-19 vaccine revenue, Moderna's future prospects are largely dependent on the successful development and commercialization of new products from its pipeline. The company faces intense competition in key growth areas, such as the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine market, where it competes with established players like Pfizer and GSK. There is also significant competition in emerging areas like oncology. The risk of pipeline failures, as demonstrated by the discontinuation of its Cytomegalovirus (CMV) program, is a continuous threat to its diversification strategy.
  3. Intellectual Property Disputes: Moderna is involved in multiple patent infringement lawsuits, both as a plaintiff and a defendant, concerning its foundational mRNA technology and COVID-19 vaccines. These ongoing legal battles, such as BioNTech's lawsuit against Moderna for alleged patent infringement related to Moderna's next-generation COVID-19 shot, and Moderna's own suit against Pfizer and BioNTech, could result in significant royalty payments, substantial legal costs, or impact the company's ability to fully commercialize its mRNA platform.

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The following are clear emerging threats for Moderna (MRNA):

  • The sharp and ongoing decline in global demand for COVID-19 vaccines, which represented Moderna's primary revenue source during the pandemic, directly impacting its financial outlook.
  • The successful market entry and significant penetration of non-mRNA vaccines for other major infectious diseases, such as Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) by competitors using different technological platforms, potentially limiting the future market for Moderna's own mRNA-based vaccines in these key pipeline areas.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Moderna (MRNA) operates in several key therapeutic areas with significant addressable markets, primarily leveraging its messenger RNA (mRNA) platform. The addressable market sizes for their main products and services, primarily vaccines and therapeutics in development, are as follows:

  • Overall mRNA Therapeutics Market (Global):
    • The global mRNA therapeutics market was valued at approximately USD 11.75 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 31.30 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.05% from 2024 to 2030.
    • Another estimate places the global mRNA therapeutics market size at USD 17.25 billion in 2025, with a projection to surpass USD 83.49 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 17.08% from 2025 to 2035.
    • In 2024, the market size was approximately USD 10.66 billion, anticipated to grow to around USD 45.04 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2025 to 2034.
    • North America is a dominant region within this market, accounting for 40.37% of the revenue share in 2023 and 40.75% in 2025.
  • Infectious Disease Vaccines (mRNA-based):
    • The global mRNA vaccine market was valued at USD 11.3 billion in 2022 and is estimated to reach USD 27.7 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 9.6%.
    • The global infectious disease vaccines market size was USD 36.25 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 72.40 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 7.17% from 2025 to 2034. The mRNA vaccines segment within infectious disease vaccines is expected to grow at a notable CAGR between 2025 and 2034.
    • Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, had forecast sales of USD 19.5 billion in 2022. However, sales for Spikevax were projected to fall to between USD 6 billion and USD 8 billion for 2023, and further decrease from USD 6.8 billion in 2023 to an estimated USD 3.2 billion in 2024.
  • mRNA Cancer Vaccines and Therapeutics (Immuno-oncology):
    • The global mRNA cancer vaccines and therapeutics market size was approximately USD 71.22 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 82.67 billion in 2026, at a CAGR of 16.1%. It is expected to further reach USD 141.51 billion in 2030 with a CAGR of 14.4%.
    • Another report indicates the global mRNA cancer vaccine market was valued at USD 8.59 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 15.69 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 6.9% from 2025 to 2034.
    • The mRNA Cancer Vaccines and Therapeutics Market was valued at USD 6.246 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 39.01 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 18.12% from 2025 to 2035.
    • North America leads this market, valued at USD 2.0 billion in 2023 and projected to reach USD 9.06 billion by 2032.
  • mRNA Therapeutics for Rare Diseases:
    • The global rare disease therapeutics market reached USD 154.64 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 495.27 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 13.8% during 2025–2033.
    • RNA-based therapies within the rare disease therapeutics market were valued at USD 26 billion in 2024.
    • Rare genetic diseases are identified as attractive targets for mRNA therapeutics due to regulatory incentives and lower competition.

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Moderna (MRNA) over the Next 2-3 Years

  • International Expansion and Strategic Partnerships: Moderna anticipates significant revenue growth from international markets, aiming for a balanced geographic revenue mix between the U.S. and global regions by 2026. This expansion is supported by multi-year agreements in countries such as the UK, Canada, and Australia, with new strategic partnerships also being pursued in Latin America and Asia Pacific.
  • Launch of New Infectious Disease Vaccines: The company plans to diversify its product portfolio with the introduction of new vaccines. This includes its seasonal flu vaccine and a combination flu/COVID-19 vaccine, which are under regulatory review in international markets. Additionally, a Phase 3 study for its norovirus vaccine is fully enrolled, with data expected in 2026, contributing to an expanding seasonal vaccine franchise.
  • Advancement and Potential Approvals in Oncology and Rare Disease Pipelines: Moderna is investing in its oncology and rare disease therapeutic pipelines. Over the next three years, the company expects readouts from nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 oncology studies, including three Phase 3 programs for intismeran (mRNA-4157) for adjuvant melanoma and other cancers. A registrational study for the propionic acidemia candidate (mRNA-3927) has reached target enrollment, with data anticipated in 2026.
  • Growth of Recently Launched Products: The continued expansion and strong uptake of mNEXSPIKE, Moderna's newer COVID-19 vaccine, in the U.S. and its planned launches in other countries are expected to be a significant contributor to revenue growth in the coming years.

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Share Repurchases

  • Moderna authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion in August 2021, to be executed over a two-year period.
  • In 2023, the company repurchased $1.153 billion in shares.
  • As of August 1, 2025, Moderna had completed the repurchase of 9,530,147 shares for $1,337.93 million under the buyback announced on August 3, 2022.

Share Issuance

  • Moderna's annual shares outstanding increased from 382 million in December 2023 to 386 million in December 2024, indicating new share issuances.
  • Quarterly shares outstanding increased from 389 million in June 2025 to 391 million in September 2025, also reflecting new share issuances.

Inbound Investments

  • In November 2025, Moderna secured a five-year term loan facility for up to $1.5 billion from Ares Management Credit Funds, with an initial draw of $600 million.
  • The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) is investing up to $54.3 million to support a pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial for Moderna's investigational mRNA-based H5 pandemic influenza vaccine candidate.
  • Moderna finalized a long-term strategic partnership with the Government of Canada in April 2022 to establish an mRNA vaccine manufacturing facility in Quebec.

Outbound Investments

  • Moderna plans to reinvest revenues generated from its seasonal vaccine franchise into its experimental oncology and rare disease therapeutics pipeline.
  • The company is increasing its research and development investments in oncology.
  • Moderna announced an investment of over $140 million to establish full end-to-end manufacturing for its mRNA medicines at its Norwood, Massachusetts campus.

Capital Expenditures

  • Moderna's annual capital expenditures were $707 million in 2023, $1.051 billion in 2024, and $202 million in 2025.
  • For 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be between $0.2 billion and $0.3 billion.
  • In 2021, the company planned capital investments between $450 million and $550 million, focused on expanding manufacturing capacity for its COVID-19 vaccine, technology improvements, and global commercial operations.

Better Bets vs. Moderna (MRNA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to MRNA.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
QDEL_2282026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K02282026QDELQuidelOrthoInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
0.0%0.0%0.0%
CHE_2272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02272026CHEChemedDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
LLY_2272026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper02272026LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%0.0%
HAE_2202026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02202026HAEHaemoneticsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.5%3.5%0.0%
IQV_2132026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02132026IQVIQVIADip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.1%7.1%-3.0%
MRNA_3312025_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312025MRNAModernaInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
-10.7%89.0%-21.1%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MRNAPFEALNYSRPTAKTSALPSMedian
NameModerna Pfizer Alnylam .Sarepta .Aktis On.ALPS  
Mkt Price51.3826.97312.1716.6917.700.9622.34
Mkt Cap20.1153.441.31.7--30.7
Rev LTM1,92262,5793,7142,198--2,956
Op Inc LTM-3,07417,406502-658---78
FCF LTM-2,0759,075465-315--75
FCF 3Y Avg-3,3187,901155-419---132
CFO LTM-1,87311,704524-205--159
CFO 3Y Avg-2,66511,049207-304---49

Growth & Margins

MRNAPFEALNYSRPTAKTSALPSMedian
NameModerna Pfizer Alnylam .Sarepta .Aktis On.ALPS  
Rev Chg LTM-39.9%-1.6%65.2%15.6%--7.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-52.3%-12.0%54.8%33.9%--11.0%
Rev Chg Q-29.3%-1.2%84.9%-32.7%---15.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-12.7%-0.3%15.7%-8.9%---4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-159.9%27.8%13.5%-29.9%---8.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-115.3%19.6%-3.3%-13.3%---8.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.7%0.9%5.3%-26.4%---0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-97.5%18.7%14.1%-9.3%--2.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-79.2%17.8%6.5%-20.2%---6.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-108.0%14.5%12.5%-14.3%---0.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-97.1%12.7%4.3%-26.7%---11.2%

Valuation

MRNAPFEALNYSRPTAKTSALPSMedian
NameModerna Pfizer Alnylam .Sarepta .Aktis On.ALPS  
Mkt Cap20.1153.441.31.7--30.7
P/S10.52.511.10.8--6.5
P/EBIT-7.315.071.7-2.6--6.2
P/E-7.119.7131.6-2.5--8.6
P/CFO-10.813.178.8-8.5--2.3
Total Yield-14.0%11.4%0.8%-40.8%---6.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%6.4%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-17.7%5.3%0.3%-7.6%---3.7%
D/E0.10.40.00.6--0.2
Net D/E-0.20.3-0.00.1--0.0

Returns

MRNAPFEALNYSRPTAKTSALPSMedian
NameModerna Pfizer Alnylam .Sarepta .Aktis On.ALPS  
1M Rtn10.3%-1.5%-6.2%-9.2%0.4%6.3%-0.5%
3M Rtn52.0%8.9%-22.0%-20.7%∞%1.2%1.2%
6M Rtn103.6%16.1%-31.2%-4.2%∞%1.3%1.3%
12M Rtn58.3%10.5%23.1%-77.3%321,718.2%1.3%16.8%
3Y Rtn-66.2%-20.5%63.9%-87.3%510.3%1.3%-9.6%
1M Excs Rtn8.6%5.6%-2.8%-5.0%1.3%12.1%3.5%
3M Excs Rtn71.6%12.7%-17.2%-17.9%∞%1.3%1.3%
6M Excs Rtn103.8%17.4%-29.1%-8.0%∞%3.2%3.2%
12M Excs Rtn39.6%-4.3%8.5%-93.8%299,885.4%-13.3%2.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-132.8%-86.9%0.9%-155.7%391.2%-65.9%-76.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
COVID3,0846,671   
Other revenue127177   
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)250   
Collaboration revenue  4406174
Grant revenue  388735529
Net Product Sales  18,43517,675200
Total3,2366,84819,26318,471803


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$51.38 
Market Cap ($ Bil)20.0 
First Trading Date12/07/2018 
Distance from 52W High-11.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$47.06$32.46
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA9.2%58.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility82.3%67.1%
Downside Capture74.13164.30
Upside Capture372.54187.90
Correlation (SPY)33.7%37.2%
MRNA Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.841.341.511.301.231.23
Up Beta-2.213.132.631.970.931.19
Down Beta1.710.880.280.801.121.22
Up Capture297%396%529%328%288%78%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days15263971130359
Down Capture-3%-165%-66%39%126%110%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days6152253120391

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MRNA
MRNA56.4%67.1%0.94-
Sector ETF (XLV)0.2%17.6%-0.1450.2%
Equity (SPY)15.8%18.9%0.6437.2%
Gold (GLD)48.2%27.0%1.4513.1%
Commodities (DBC)17.8%17.4%0.8314.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.0%16.4%-0.1135.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-19.0%44.2%-0.3530.6%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MRNA
MRNA-18.4%66.9%-0.02-
Sector ETF (XLV)6.3%14.5%0.2635.4%
Equity (SPY)11.8%17.0%0.5433.1%
Gold (GLD)20.7%17.5%0.977.2%
Commodities (DBC)10.9%19.0%0.46-0.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.8%18.8%0.0626.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.7%56.7%0.3017.9%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MRNA
MRNA10.8%72.4%0.51-
Sector ETF (XLV)9.6%16.5%0.4724.6%
Equity (SPY)14.2%17.9%0.6821.1%
Gold (GLD)13.3%15.7%0.704.0%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%17.6%0.390.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2112.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)66.9%66.8%1.068.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2272026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity70.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 2152026-1.6%
Average Daily Volume8.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.1 days
Basic Shares Quantity392.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares17.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/13/20265.3%24.3%32.9%
11/6/20253.3%13.4%18.7%
8/1/2025-6.6%-10.0%-18.5%
5/1/2025-5.3%-15.7%-6.9%
2/14/20253.4%11.3%8.7%
11/7/2024-3.0%-18.7%-14.2%
8/1/2024-21.0%-31.6%-34.9%
5/2/202412.7%9.4%27.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121112
# Negative101110
Median Positive6.9%9.4%18.9%
Median Negative-4.3%-10.0%-12.8%
Max Positive16.0%33.2%93.2%
Max Negative-21.0%-33.8%-34.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/20/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/03/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Afeyan, Noubar Flagship Pioneering, Inc.Sell1215202529.4823,853703,306115,699Form
2Hussain, Abbas DirectSell1211202527.6050413,91041,814Form
3Hussain, Abbas DirectSell612202528.003128,73616,240Form
4Bancel, StephaneChief Executive OfficerSee FootnoteBuy304202531.22160,3145,004,318287,518,264Form
5Sagan, Paul By: The Paul Sagan Revocable TrustBuy304202531.7631,6201,004,2519,909,978Form