McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $329.95 | Market Cap: $235.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $329.95Market Cap: $235.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.9x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Key risksMCD key risks include potential damage to its brand reputation and consumer trust from [1] failing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences for healthier options and [2] negative perception caused by boycotts or food safety issues. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.4 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.9x |
| Key risksMCD key risks include potential damage to its brand reputation and consumer trust from [1] failing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences for healthier options and [2] negative perception caused by boycotts or food safety issues. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: McDonald's reported better-than-expected results for Q4 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.12, surpassing analyst estimates of $3.05. Consolidated revenues increased 9.7% year-over-year to $7.01 billion, exceeding the anticipated $6.81 billion, driven by a 5.7% increase in global comparable sales and a 6.8% rise in U.S. comparable sales.
2. Robust Growth Strategy and Digital Engagement: The company demonstrated strong momentum with nearly $140 billion in 2025 system-wide sales and announced plans to accelerate unit growth with approximately 2,600 new restaurant openings targeted for 2026. McDonald's also highlighted the success of its digital and loyalty programs, reaching nearly 210 million active loyalty users by the end of 2025, which contributes to increased visit frequency and sales.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.0% change in MCD stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 308.24 | 326.65 | 6.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,263 | 26,263 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.0% | 32.0% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.1 | 27.7 | 6.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 713 | 713 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | 6.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.1% | -2.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.1% | 17.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.0% change in MCD stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 308.19 | 326.65 | 6.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,060 | 26,263 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.2% | 32.0% | -0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.2 | 27.7 | 5.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 714 | 713 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | 6.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.0% | -0.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.0% | 17.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.0% change in MCD stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 299.63 | 326.65 | 9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,921 | 26,263 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.7% | 32.0% | 1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.1 | 27.7 | 6.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 716 | 713 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | 9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 4.6% | 19.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.6% change in MCD stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 246.26 | 326.65 | 32.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,182 | 26,263 | 13.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.6% | 32.0% | 20.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.1 | 27.7 | -5.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 731 | 713 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | 32.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 24.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 57.9% | 25.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCD Return | 28% | 1% | 15% | 0% | 8% | 7% | 71% |
| Peers Return | 17% | -5% | 26% | 14% | -5% | 4% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 77% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCD Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 62% | 57% | 43% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCD Max Drawdown | -4% | -17% | -5% | -16% | -4% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -27% | -5% | -10% | -19% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See MCD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 242 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 517 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH
In The Past
McDonald's's stock fell -17.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2022. A -17.7% loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.
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About McDonald's (MCD)
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe McDonald's:
- Coca-Cola for prepared meals: Just as Coca-Cola is a globally ubiquitous and highly consistent brand for beverages, McDonald's is the same for quick, standardized prepared meals.
- Walmart for quick meals: Similar to how Walmart provides a vast, convenient, and consistent option for everyday retail needs, McDonald's does the same for affordable and accessible quick meals.
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- Hamburgers and Cheeseburgers: Classic beef patties served in buns with various toppings.
- Chicken Sandwiches and Nuggets: A variety of poultry-based options, including crispy or grilled sandwiches and bite-sized nuggets.
- Fries: McDonald's signature golden, crispy potato sticks.
- Salads and Wraps: Lighter meal options including fresh greens and various fillings wrapped in tortillas.
- Breakfast Menu Items: A dedicated selection for morning meals, featuring items like hotcakes, breakfast sandwiches, and burritos.
- Desserts and Shakes: Sweet treats such as ice cream sundaes, soft-serve cones, milkshakes, and baked goods.
- Beverages: A broad array of drinks including soft drinks, coffee, and other non-alcoholic options.
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```htmlMcDonald's (MCD) primarily sells to individual consumers rather than other companies. Based on its operations as a fast-food restaurant chain, its major customer categories include:
- Families and Children: A significant portion of McDonald's customer base consists of families, often attracted by child-friendly menu items like the Happy Meal, play areas in some locations, and an overall family-oriented dining experience.
- Individuals Seeking Convenience and Speed: This category includes commuters, people on lunch breaks, travelers, and anyone looking for a quick, easily accessible, and consistent meal solution, particularly during busy times or when on the go.
- Value-Conscious Consumers: Customers who prioritize affordability and seek budget-friendly meal options are a key demographic for McDonald's, often utilizing value menus, combo deals, and promotions to get a satisfying meal at a lower cost.
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- Tyson Foods (TSN)
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Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Chris Kempczinski joined McDonald's in 2015 as Executive Vice President for strategy, business development, and innovation. He was promoted to President of McDonald's USA in October 2016 and became CEO in November 2019, also assuming the role of Chairman of the Board in 2024. Prior to McDonald's, he accumulated over 25 years of experience in consumer goods, holding senior positions at Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, and Kraft Foods, where he served as Executive Vice President of Growth Initiatives and President of International. There is no information indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Ian Borden, Executive Vice President, Global Chief Financial Officer
Ian Borden has been with McDonald's for nearly 30 years. He began his career in the finance department in Canada and has held various international leadership and P&L roles, including Chief Financial Officer of McDonald's Russia and Eastern Europe, Managing Director of McDonald's Ukraine, and President of International Developmental Licensed and Foundational Markets. Most recently, he was President, International, overseeing all business outside of the U.S., before becoming Global Chief Financial Officer. There is no information provided indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Joe Erlinger, President, McDonald's USA
Joe Erlinger serves as the President of McDonald's USA.
Heidi B. Capozzi, Executive Vice President, Global Chief People Officer
Heidi B. Capozzi joined McDonald's in April 2020. Before McDonald's, she was the Senior Vice President of Human Resources at The Boeing Company since 2016. Her prior experience also includes leadership roles in human resources and communications at Northrop Grumman and TRW's automotive and defense business, as well as human resources, internal services, and quality for Insitu.
Warren Anderson, Senior Vice President, Global Chief Supply Chain Officer
Warren Anderson's career with McDonald's spans more than 15 years. He most recently served as Corporate Senior Vice President, Global Supply Chain, collaborating with over 100 international markets. His responsibilities include the supply and cost management of food, packaging, logistics, toys, and equipment for McDonald's restaurants worldwide. He contributed to achieving a $1 billion global cost savings target and ensured supply chain resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The key risks to McDonald's (MCD) business are:
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Inflation and Pressured Consumers Leading to Margin Compression: McDonald's faces significant challenges from stubborn inflation, which drives up input costs such as food (specifically beef) and labor expenses. This pressure on operational costs, particularly due to minimum wage hikes, directly impacts the company's margins. Simultaneously, a pressured consumer base, especially lower-income quick-service restaurant (QSR) consumers, is leading to reduced traffic. McDonald's must balance the need to offer value to attract and retain customers with increasing costs, which can compress profitability if prices cannot be raised sufficiently.
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Geopolitical Instability and International Market Risks: As a global company with extensive international operations, McDonald's is exposed to geopolitical instability in key international markets. This includes navigating diverse economic systems, political crises, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, which can significantly affect profitability and financial reporting. Additionally, varying foreign taxation policies in different countries pose challenges for international business expansion and operations.
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Intensifying Competition and Maintaining Customer Relevance: McDonald's operates in a highly competitive fast-food industry. The company faces ongoing challenges from competitors, which can impact its market positioning and foot traffic. To remain successful, McDonald's must continuously differentiate its customer experience, stay relevant with evolving consumer preferences (such as the demand for healthier menu options), and execute strategic plans effectively to ensure sustained customer satisfaction and prevent sales cannibalization from its own expanding store footprint.
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- Shift in consumer preferences towards healthier, plant-based, and sustainably sourced food options, challenging McDonald's traditional menu and brand perception.
- Increasing reliance on and power of third-party food delivery platforms, leading to eroded profit margins, loss of direct customer relationship and data, and increased platform leverage over McDonald's operations and pricing.
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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) operates within several large addressable markets for its main products and services. The primary markets include the global and U.S. fast food and quick service restaurant (QSR) industries, specific segments for burgers and chicken, and broader markets for non-alcoholic beverages and coffee. The global fast food market was valued at approximately USD 780.61 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 1,112.63 billion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.61% from 2026 to 2035. Another estimate places the global fast food market size at USD 939.0 billion in 2025, with an expectation to reach USD 1,342.2 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.93% during 2026-2034. North America accounted for approximately 40% of the global fast food market share. In the United States, the fast food market is substantial. In 2025, the U.S. fast food market size was valued at USD 153.87 billion, with projections to reach USD 223.42 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 3.8% from 2026 to 2035. Other estimates for the U.S. fast food and quick service restaurant market include USD 405 billion in 2023, forecasted to hit USD 663 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of nearly 10.3% between 2024 and 2032. For specific product categories:- Burgers and Cheeseburgers: The global hamburger market is valued at USD 759.45 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,168.48 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2026 to 2035. In the U.S., the burger restaurant market size was approximately USD 173.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 177.7 billion in 2026. The burgers/sandwich segment contributed over 43% of the revenue share in the global fast food market in 2025.
- Chicken Sandwiches and Nuggets: The global fried chicken market was valued at about USD 44.56 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to around USD 78.92 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 5.33% from 2025 to 2035. The U.S. quick-service chicken restaurant industry generated roughly USD 60–65 billion in annual revenue as of 2025, and its market size is estimated at USD 63.7 billion in 2026. This segment is projected to grow to approximately USD 67.2 billion by 2030.
- Beverages (Soft Drinks and Other Beverages): The global non-alcoholic beverages market was estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 2.85 trillion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 3.78% from 2026 to 2035. The U.S. non-alcoholic beverages market size was estimated at USD 280.2 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 457.0 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030.
- Coffee: The global coffee shop market size was approximately USD 220.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly USD 290.24 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.5% from 2025 to 2032. The U.S. coffee shop market value was around USD 49.5 billion in 2023 and approximately USD 74.3 billion in revenue in 2025. For the broader U.S. coffee market, the size is projected to grow from USD 112.86 billion in 2025 to reach USD 175.27 billion by 2035.
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McDonald's (MCD) is strategically focused on several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years. These initiatives are part of its "Accelerating the Arches" strategy, emphasizing restaurant expansion, digital transformation, menu innovation, and the introduction of new restaurant concepts.
- Aggressive Restaurant Expansion: McDonald's plans its fastest period of growth in its history, aiming to expand its global restaurant count to 50,000 by 2027. This includes opening over 2,100 new restaurants worldwide in 2024, with significant development targeted in international markets such as China, alongside expansion in the United States and International Operated Markets (IOM). This substantial increase in its footprint is expected to contribute to systemwide sales growth.
- Digital Transformation and Loyalty Program Growth: The company is doubling down on its "3 Ds" – Digital, Delivery, and Drive-Thru – with a strong emphasis on enhancing its digital ecosystem. A core component is the MyMcDonald's Rewards program, which McDonald's aims to grow to 250 million active users by 2027, projecting to double loyalty program sales to $45 billion. This digital focus involves upgrading the McDonald's app, introducing web-based ordering, personalizing offers, and deploying a new universal software platform across its digital channels to improve customer experience and operational efficiency. Furthermore, the company is leveraging AI solutions to optimize drive-thru speeds and personalized app offers.
- Menu Innovation and Value Focus: McDonald's is committed to enhancing its core menu, notably through its "Best Burger" initiative, which involves over 50 changes to improve burger quality with hotter patties, softer buns, and better-melted cheese, rolling out nationwide. Beyond core improvements, the company plans to introduce new menu items and limited-time offers (LTOs) and is testing a larger burger option. A significant driver for attracting and retaining customers, especially in a pressured consumer spending environment, is its continued focus on value and affordability through initiatives like the $5 Meal Deal and Every Day Affordable Price (EDAP) menus.
- Launch of New Restaurant Concepts: To tap into new market segments and drive growth, McDonald's is introducing innovative spin-off concepts such as CosMc's. This new drive-thru-only format, focusing on customizable beverages and snacks, is designed to compete in the growing afternoon snack and beverage category, with 10 locations planned in 2024.
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Share Repurchases
- McDonald's repurchased $2.056 billion of its stock in 2025.
- The company repurchased $2.824 billion in 2024.
- Share repurchases amounted to $3.054 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- McDonald's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the last few years, indicating that share repurchases have outweighed any share issuances. For instance, shares outstanding decreased from 744.8 million in 2021 to 712.1 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, the company's cash used for investing activities increased, primarily due to an increased ownership stake in McDonald's China business and the acquisition of McDonald's business in Israel.
- Long-term investments by McDonald's were $2.71 billion in 2024, marking a significant increase from $1.08 billion in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are projected to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion in 2026, with the majority directed towards new unit openings across the U.S. and international markets, and supporting strategic growth drivers like technology and digital enhancements.
- McDonald's capital expenditures were $3.365 billion in 2025, primarily for new restaurant openings, with approximately 2,275 new restaurants opened globally in 2025.
- Capital expenditures were approximately $2.8 billion in 2024, mainly allocated to new restaurant openings and reinvestment in existing restaurants.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 45.0 |
| Rev LTM | 10,680 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,510 |
| FCF LTM | 1,544 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,428 |
| CFO LTM | 2,062 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,884 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 45.0 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 20.7 |
| P/E | 29.1 |
| P/CFO | 21.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 33.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 12,382 | 11,297 | 12,220 | 9,571 | 11,480 |
| United States (US) | 10,568 | 9,588 | 8,865 | 7,828 | 8,003 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 2,543 | 2,297 | 2,138 | 1,809 | 1,882 |
| Total | 25,493 | 23,183 | 23,223 | 19,208 | 21,364 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 5,831 | 3,926 | 5,131 | 3,315 | 4,789 |
| United States (US) | 5,694 | 5,136 | 4,755 | 3,789 | 4,069 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 121 | 309 | 471 | 220 | 212 |
| Total | 11,646 | 9,371 | 10,356 | 7,324 | 9,070 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 23,947 | 21,979 | 24,186 | 24,744 | 22,848 |
| United States (US) | 22,477 | 21,793 | 21,280 | 21,010 | 21,377 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 9,723 | 6,663 | 8,388 | 6,873 | 3,286 |
| Total | 56,147 | 50,436 | 53,854 | 52,627 | 47,511 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $326.65 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 232.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $318.99 | $305.13 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.4% | 7.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 15.1% | 17.1% |
| Downside Capture | -13.07 | 5.49 |
| Upside Capture | 3.88 | 15.62 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.6% | 16.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.38 | -0.02 | -0.12 | -0.06 | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| Up Beta | 0.92 | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| Down Beta | -1.30 | -0.09 | -0.49 | -0.29 | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| Up Capture | 11% | 25% | 20% | 3% | 11% | 11% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 23 | 33 | 66 | 130 | 394 |
| Down Capture | -118% | -69% | -46% | -33% | 10% | 52% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 28 | 58 | 121 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 12.4% | 17.1% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 17.4% | 23.6% | 0.61 | 19.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.5% | 18.9% | 0.94 | 16.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 68.7% | 26.2% | 1.98 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.7% | 17.3% | 0.91 | -4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.3% | 16.2% | 0.37 | 37.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -9.2% | 44.2% | -0.09 | -2.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 11.9% | 17.1% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.4% | 23.6% | 0.28 | 34.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 39.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 1.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 42.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.1% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 7.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 13.5% | 20.3% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.6% | 21.9% | 0.53 | 49.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 54.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.76 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 15.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 54.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 11.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.0% | 1.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -0.6% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.7% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.2% | -1.6% | -8.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.6% | -1.4% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -3.8% | -8.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 320.00 | 2,486 | 795,520 | 2,005,763 | Form |
| 2 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 315.00 | 658 | 207,270 | 1,952,861 | Form |
| 3 | Steijaert, Manuel Jm | EVP - President, IOM | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 305.50 | 6,567 | 2,006,218 | 1,407,164 | Form |
| 4 | Borden, Ian Frederick | EVP - CFO | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 310.00 | 17,134 | 5,311,540 | 8,169,476 | Form |
| 5 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 305.82 | 3,195 | 977,095 | 1,861,869 | Form |
MCD Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is well below 1.0x, indicating an unfavorable risk/reward profile. The primary friction point—weakness in the core U.S. low-income consumer—is actively playing out, as evidenced by decelerating sales and negative traffic. While the long-term thesis is plausible, the near-term headwinds are significant and appear to be worsening, making the stock unattractive at its current valuation.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowMcDonald's fits the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype due to its massive scale, high and stable franchise-driven operating margins (mid-to-high 40% range), significant cash flow generation, and a capital return strategy focused on dividends and buybacks. Its growth is steady but moderate, characteristic of a mature market leader.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis rests on McDonald's dual strategy of aggressive global restaurant expansion, targeting 50,000 locations by 2027, combined with the scaling of its MyMcDonald's Rewards program. The goal to grow the loyalty user base to 250 million active members is designed to increase visit frequency and average transaction value, creating a significant, high-margin revenue layer on top of the expanding physical footprint.
- Strategic goal to expand to 50,000 restaurants by 2027, with 2,200 net new openings planned for 2025.
- Target to grow loyalty program to 250 million 90-day active users, generating $45 billion in annual system-wide sales by 2027.
- MyMcDonald's Rewards members' visit frequency is 2.5x higher than non-members, and their average transaction values increase by about 15%.
- The heavily franchised model (~95%) ensures new unit growth is capital-light and accretive to already high corporate operating margins.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is the sustained pressure on the core low-income consumer in the U.S. market. Persistently high inflation has created 'check fatigue', leading this key demographic to reduce visit frequency. This forces a greater reliance on value promotions which can pressure franchisee margins and makes it difficult to grow comparable sales without significant price increases, a strategy that is reaching its limit.
- Management noted a double-digit percentage drop in traffic from low-income consumers in Q3 2025.
- U.S. comparable sales turned negative (-1.4%) in Q4 2024, driven by insufficient guest counts.
- Global comparable sales decelerated sharply from +3.8% in Q2 2025 to +0.4% in Q4 2024, indicating momentum has stalled.
- There have been 28 downward EPS estimate revisions in the last 90 days, compared to only 4 upward, signaling growing analyst concern.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Guest Counts | Return to positive YoY growth | This is the primary leading indicator of health in the company's core market and directly addresses the main bear thesis. |
| Global Comparable Sales | Re-acceleration above 2-3% | This metric reflects the overall momentum of the business and its ability to balance pricing with volume. |
| Active MyMcDonald's Rewards Users | Sequential quarterly growth towards the 250M target | This is the most direct measure of the success of the digital 'Alpha Driver' thesis. |
Digital Growth vs. Consumer Health
BULL VIEW
Bulls bet loyalty members (targeting $45B sales by 2027) and aggressive unit expansion (50k stores by 2027) will create durable growth, defending best-in-class margins.
CORE TENSION
Can growth from the 'Accelerating the Arches' digital/loyalty strategy offset the material decline in traffic from its core low-income consumer base facing 'check fatigue'?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The U.S. market, a key region, saw comparable sales decrease by 1.4% in the most recent quarter, driven by negative guest counts.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a ceiling on pricing power, forecasting sustained negative guest counts that will force margin-eroding promotions to defend market share in the U.S.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: U.S. Guest Counts. A reversal of the negative trend is required to invalidate the core bear thesis. |
Late April 2026 | Next Earnings Call - Margin Guidance Watch: Full-year 2026 Operating Margin guidance. Watch for any cut from the mid-to-high 40% range. |
Ongoing / Monthly | Federal Reserve & CPI Data Releases Watch: Consumer credit delinquency rates and CPI for food away from home. |
Anytime | Federal Appeals Court Ruling on 'Joint Employer' Standard Watch: Court decision on the NLRB's expanded joint employer rule. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-06 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: The company reported strong Q2 results with global comparable sales growth of +3.8%, demonstrating resilience prior to the more recent slowdown. | Rose significantly by 3.0% $295.31 -> $304.09 |
2025-09-02 | Dividend Increase Announcement Details: McDonald's Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend increase, signaling confidence in its cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns. | Modest 1.3% gain $309.91 -> $313.87 |
2025-10-14 | New 'Best Burger' Initiative Details: Company announced upgrades to its core burgers, including softer buns and meltier cheese, which began rolling out, aiming to improve quality perception. | Modest 1.5% gain $298.31 -> $302.74 |
2025-11-05 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite missing EPS and revenue estimates, the stock gained. Global comparable sales grew 3.6%, but management flagged a 'double-digit drop' in traffic from low-income consumers. | Rose significantly by 2.2% $297.42 -> $303.84 |
2025-12-05 | Investor Day & Strategic Update Details: McDonald's unveiled its 'Accelerating the Arches 2.0' plan, setting an ambitious target to reach 50,000 global restaurants by the end of 2027. | Flat (0.9%) $308.54 -> $311.23 |
2026-02-05 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Company reported a significant deceleration in growth, with global comparable sales at +0.4% and U.S. comparable sales falling -1.4%, confirming consumer weakness. | Muted (-0.1%) $323.69 -> $323.48 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in a Stable Volatility regime. However, the Bearish sentiment, driven by decelerating U.S. sales and low visibility into a growth re-acceleration, warrants a cautious approach. We will cap exposure to a Conservative (1-3%) sizing until U.S. guest counts stabilize.
Diversification Alternatives
COST
SECTORUnlike MCD, COST's membership model creates a loyal, higher-income customer base, making it more resilient to the 'check fatigue' affecting low-income consumers.
McDonald's is executing a transition from a mature fast-food operator to a tech-enabled growth company, leveraging its massive real estate footprint and global brand to accelerate restaurant expansion and deepen customer relationships through its digital loyalty programs.
Filter all news through the lens of accelerated, capital-efficient unit growth and the deepening of digital customer relationships.
Net new restaurant openings exceeding a 4.5% annual growth rate; Systemwide sales from loyalty members growing >15% annually; positive comparable sales growth, particularly in the U.S. market.
Slowing pace of new restaurant openings; signs of franchisee distress or pushback on expansion plans; decline in loyalty member growth or engagement; sustained negative comparable sales in key markets.
Short-term fluctuations in commodity costs; quarterly variations in international market performance unless it signals a long-term trend change; competitor menu announcements that are not part of a broader strategic shift.
Repricing Catalyst
The 'Accelerating the Arches' strategy, which targets expanding to 50,000 global restaurants by the end of 2027 and growing its active loyalty program user base to 250 million, aiming to increase annual systemwide sales from loyalty members to $45.0 billion.
Franchised & Licensed Restaurants
$16548000.0B TTM (61% of Total) · 81% MarginWhat It Is
Not applicable (collects fees on sales of all McDonald's products).
Who Pays & How
Independent owner-operators pay for the right to use the McDonald's brand, operating system, and for the lease of the restaurant real estate. The lock-in is the powerful global brand recognition which drives customer traffic, and the high initial investment cost of a franchise.
Competition
Company-Operated Restaurants
$9690000.0B TTM (36% of Total) · 17% MarginWhat It Is
Hamburgers (e.g., Big Mac, Quarter Pounder), Chicken McNuggets, French Fries, and other food and beverage items sold directly to consumers.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for quick, convenient, and affordable meals. The brand's consistency and global recognition are key purchasing drivers.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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