Tearsheet

McDonald's (MCD)


Market Price (10/16/2025): $305.01 | Market Cap: $217.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

McDonald's (MCD)


Market Price (10/16/2025): $305.01
Market Cap: $217.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.4x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.9 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.9 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.4x

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

MCD Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MCD Return11%28%1%15%0%7%72%
Peers Return28%17%-5%26%14%-5%95%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MCD Win Rate58%58%50%50%42%56% 
Peers Win Rate67%52%42%62%57%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MCD Max Drawdown-30%-4%-17%-5%-16%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-7%-27%-5%-10%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See MCD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventMCDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-17.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven172 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven20.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven242 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-21.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven517 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

McDonald's's stock fell -17.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2022. A -17.7% loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than McDonald's (MCD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MCD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.9%-16.9%-16.9%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.9%-4.9%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.6%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-9.3%-9.3%-11.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.9%-16.9%-16.9%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.9%-4.9%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.6%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-9.3%-9.3%-11.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for McDonald's

Financials

MCDSBUXCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameMcDonald.StarbucksChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Price305.2582.8641.77144.5169.30172.53113.69
Mkt Cap218.194.256.240.322.711.548.2
Rev LTM26,06036,68911,5787,9079,1065,67110,342
Op Inc LTM12,0233,8361,9992,4392,3485232,394
FCF LTM6,8972,2541,4661,5341,3543731,500
FCF 3Y Avg6,8773,0211,3391,3941,2402961,367
CFO LTM9,7934,9012,0921,8341,5887421,963
CFO 3Y Avg9,3735,5231,9201,6821,4056331,801

Growth & Margins

MCDSBUXCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameMcDonald.StarbucksChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Rev Chg LTM1.2%0.6%8.6%11.3%21.8%14.6%9.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.4%4.7%12.5%5.9%14.2%14.5%9.2%
Rev Chg Q5.4%3.8%3.0%9.6%15.9%12.7%7.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%0.9%0.8%2.2%3.8%3.1%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM46.1%10.5%17.3%30.8%25.8%9.2%21.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg45.9%13.3%16.9%31.7%28.8%8.7%22.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-1.6%-0.4%-0.5%-0.6%-0.2%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM37.6%13.4%18.1%23.2%17.4%13.1%17.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg37.0%15.3%18.3%22.9%18.1%12.6%18.2%
FCF/Rev LTM26.5%6.1%12.7%19.4%14.9%6.6%13.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg27.2%8.4%12.8%19.0%16.0%5.9%14.4%

Valuation

MCDSBUXCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameMcDonald.StarbucksChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Cap218.194.256.240.322.711.548.2
P/S8.42.64.95.12.52.03.7
P/EBIT18.023.128.116.410.621.920.0
P/E26.035.836.428.226.526.127.3
P/CFO22.319.226.922.014.315.420.6
Total Yield6.1%5.7%2.7%5.5%8.5%4.6%5.6%
Dividend Yield2.3%2.9%0.0%1.9%4.7%0.8%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.4%3.0%1.9%3.6%5.5%2.8%3.2%
D/E0.30.30.10.30.70.10.3
Net D/E0.20.20.10.30.70.10.2

Returns

MCDSBUXCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameMcDonald.StarbucksChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
1M Rtn1.1%0.2%8.3%-2.9%9.5%4.5%2.8%
3M Rtn2.7%-9.8%-21.7%-0.6%3.0%-5.9%-3.3%
6M Rtn-0.1%4.0%-13.1%2.4%13.5%8.3%3.2%
12M Rtn-0.3%-10.6%-30.2%10.6%1.0%-3.6%-2.0%
3Y Rtn34.5%3.6%38.5%43.3%42.8%95.9%40.6%
1M Excs Rtn-0.3%-2.8%5.3%-3.3%7.6%3.2%1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-3.7%-16.4%-27.9%-7.9%-5.4%-11.1%-9.5%
6M Excs Rtn-24.8%-23.3%-38.0%-22.8%-10.4%-17.0%-23.0%
12M Excs Rtn-12.3%-25.8%-43.5%-4.8%-13.2%-15.1%-14.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-45.5%-81.9%-43.2%-42.7%-38.5%21.3%-42.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
International Operated Markets12,38211,29712,2209,57111,480
United States (US)10,5689,5888,8657,8288,003
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate2,5432,2972,1381,8091,882
Total25,49323,18223,22319,20821,364


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
International Operated Markets5,8313,9265,1313,3154,789
United States (US)5,6945,1364,7553,7894,069
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate121309471220212
Total11,6469,37110,3567,3249,070


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
International Operated Markets23,94721,97924,18624,74422,848
United States (US)22,47721,79321,28021,01021,377
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate9,7236,6638,3886,8733,286
Total56,14750,43553,85452,62747,511


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,275,707
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-11.6%
Average Daily Volume3,293,714
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.21
Basic Shares Quantity714,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/20253.0%1.0%6.7%
5/1/2025-1.9%-0.5%-1.8%
2/10/20254.8%4.8%4.8%
10/29/2024-0.6%-1.3%-0.2%
7/29/20243.7%9.8%14.6%
4/30/2024-0.2%-1.6%-8.8%
2/5/2024-3.7%-2.6%-1.0%
10/30/20231.7%4.7%10.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121512
# Negative12912
Median Positive2.7%2.9%5.3%
Median Negative-0.9%-1.6%-2.8%
Max Positive4.8%9.8%14.6%
Max Negative-5.0%-8.6%-8.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211102202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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