Macy's (M)
Market Price (10/25/2025): $18.725 | Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Macy's (M)
Market Price (10/25/2025): $18.725Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.3%, FCF Yield is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.3%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
M Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| M Return | -31% | 136% | -19% | 2% | -12% | 15% | 29% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 6% | -16% | 21% | 5% | 4% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| M Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 43% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| M Max Drawdown | -73% | -0% | -41% | -47% | -28% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -12% | -28% | -13% | -14% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TJX, TGT, OLLI, KSS, BBBY. See M Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | M | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 253.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 308.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 345 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -65.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 192.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 718.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1631 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TJX, TGT, OLLI, KSS, BBBY
In The Past
Macy's's stock fell -71.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Macy's Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Macy's Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| How Does Macy's Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than M Stock: Pay Less Than Macy's To Get More From CHTR, IBKR | |||
| M Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Macy's Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -9.1% in 2025 and -7.1% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Macy's vs. StoneCo: M stock's significantly lower valuation vs. STNE appears counterintuitive | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Macy's (M) Stock: 27% of days in last 3 months had 1% or greater fluctuation | |||
| Macy's vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| Macy's Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 23rd, 2025 | ||
| Buy Or Fear Macy’s Stock? | September 4th, 2025 | ||
| Macy’s Stock Up 7% Over Last Ten Days. What’s Next? | July 29th, 2022 | ||
| Can Macy’s Stock Rebound After An 8% Fall In The Last Ten Days? | April 5th, 2022 | ||
| What’s Next For Macy’s Stock After An 8% Move Last Week? | September 27th, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to M. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -18.6% | -18.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -6.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.4% | -8.4% | -8.4% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 9.7% | 9.7% | -11.7% |
| 05312023 | M | Macy's | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 18.0% | 46.8% | -20.3% |
| 08312019 | M | Macy's | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.2% | -48.7% | -67.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -18.6% | -18.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -6.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.4% | -8.4% | -8.4% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 9.7% | 9.7% | -11.7% |
| 05312023 | M | Macy's | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 18.0% | 46.8% | -20.3% |
| 08312019 | M | Macy's | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.2% | -48.7% | -67.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Macy's
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| Rev LTM | 19,294 |
| Op Inc LTM | 685 |
| FCF LTM | 542 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 475 |
| CFO LTM | 1,152 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,217 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 6.7 |
| Total Yield | 13.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 23,866 | 25,449 | |||
| Credit card revenues, net | 832 | 751 | 771 | ||
| Home/Other | 4,654 | 3,745 | 4,067 | ||
| Macy's Media Network revenue, net | 107 | ||||
| Men's and Kids | 5,247 | 3,486 | 5,628 | ||
| Women's Accessories, Shoes, Cosmetics and Fragrances | 9,385 | 7,206 | 9,454 | ||
| Women's Apparel | 5,174 | 2,909 | 5,411 | ||
| Total | 23,866 | 25,449 | 25,399 | 18,097 | 25,331 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/3/2025 | 20.7% | 29.0% | 34.6% |
| 5/28/2025 | -0.3% | -4.6% | -6.2% |
| 3/6/2025 | -0.7% | 4.6% | -13.1% |
| 11/25/2024 | -2.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% |
| 8/21/2024 | -12.9% | -13.4% | -12.6% |
| 5/21/2024 | 5.1% | 6.7% | -3.1% |
| 11/16/2023 | 5.7% | 17.7% | 57.6% |
| 8/22/2023 | -14.1% | -17.4% | -25.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 17 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 7.7% | 13.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -5.5% | -13.1% |
| Max Positive | 21.2% | 34.7% | 57.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -17.4% | -29.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9102025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12122024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3222024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11282023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3242023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11302022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6072022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3252022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12072021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |