Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $31.8 | Market Cap: $16.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $31.8Market Cap: $16.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -6.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Mobility. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Mobility. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -6.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
LUV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025, Southwest Airlines (LUV) stock moved by 3.6% due to several key factors, primarily related to its third-quarter 2025 financial performance and operational updates.
1. Southwest Airlines reported a significant earnings beat for Q3 2025.
The company posted an adjusted profit of $0.11 per share, which substantially exceeded analyst expectations of a loss, representing a +1000.00% earnings surprise. This positive surprise likely contributed to a favorable stock movement.
2. The airline achieved record third-quarter revenue and observed a positive inflection in demand.
Southwest reported record Q3 2025 revenue of $6.95 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year. The company also noted a clear positive inflection in demand that began in early July and continued throughout the quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LUV Return | -13% | -8% | -21% | -12% | 19% | -4% | -37% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 5% | -19% | 7% | 51% | -8% | 31% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LUV Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 48% | 53% | 43% | 62% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LUV Max Drawdown | -56% | -16% | -28% | -33% | -15% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -67% | -11% | -30% | -17% | -15% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VTOL, DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL. See LUV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LUV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 188.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 285 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1694 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VTOL, DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL
In The Past
Southwest Airlines's stock fell -65.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -65.3% loss requires a 188.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LUV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 04302020 | LUV | Southwest Airlines | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.6% | 100.9% | -23.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 04302020 | LUV | Southwest Airlines | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.6% | 100.9% | -23.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Southwest Airlines
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| Rev LTM | 54,294 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,259 |
| FCF LTM | 882 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 962 |
| CFO LTM | 3,771 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,667 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.5 |
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/CFO | 4.5 |
| Total Yield | 11.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -6.2% | -9.2% | |
| 7/23/2025 | -11.2% | -18.0% | -17.0% |
| 4/23/2025 | 3.7% | 9.6% | 22.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -1.2% | -2.4% | -1.9% |
| 10/24/2024 | -5.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| 7/25/2024 | 5.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | -7.0% | -12.4% | -9.0% |
| 1/25/2024 | -2.3% | -3.9% | 8.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| # Negative | 16 | 16 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 5.0% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -4.4% | -6.3% |
| Max Positive | 5.5% | 9.6% | 31.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -18.0% | -17.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10282024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7292024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
