Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $37.3 | Market Cap: $22.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $37.3Market Cap: $22.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Mobility. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0% | |
| Key risksLUV key risks include [1] its sole-source dependency on Boeing for its entire aircraft fleet and [2] significant business and growth disruptions from related delays in new aircraft certification and delivery. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Mobility. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0% |
| Key risksLUV key risks include [1] its sole-source dependency on Boeing for its entire aircraft fleet and [2] significant business and growth disruptions from related delays in new aircraft certification and delivery. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong 2026 Earnings Guidance and Business Transformation Initiatives.
Southwest Airlines provided optimistic adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) guidance of at least $4.00 for 2026, representing a projected increase of over 300% compared to 2025, significantly surpassing Wall Street's consensus estimate of $3.19. This positive outlook is largely attributed to the successful implementation of "sweeping transformation initiatives" in 2025, which included the introduction of bag fees, basic economy fares, assigned and extra legroom seating, optimization of the Rapid Rewards program, and expanded online distribution. The company also expects first-quarter 2026 operating revenues per available seat mile (RASM) to increase by at least 9.5% year-over-year.
2. Better-than-Expected Q4 2025 Financial Results.
Southwest Airlines reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 28, 2026, with an EPS of $0.58, which exceeded analysts' consensus estimates of $0.56 by $0.02. While quarterly revenue of $7.44 billion was slightly below analyst expectations, it still represented a 7.4% year-over-year increase. Furthermore, the company's net income for the fourth quarter jumped by nearly 24% year-over-year to $323 million.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.3% change in LUV stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.51 | 37.36 | 8.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,551 | 28,063 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 1.6% | 14.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 47.6 | 51.5 | 8.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 523 | 608 | -14.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUV | 8.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 35.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.9% | 49.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.2% change in LUV stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.43 | 37.36 | 15.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,472 | 28,063 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 1.6% | 10.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.5 | 51.5 | 15.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 538 | 608 | -11.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUV | 15.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 33.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.5% | 46.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.4% change in LUV stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.27 | 37.36 | 23.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,483 | 28,063 | 2.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.7% | 1.6% | -6.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.0 | 51.5 | 32.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 598 | 608 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUV | 23.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 56.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 59.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.5% change in LUV stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 49.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.27 | 37.36 | 19.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,814 | 28,063 | 17.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.3% | 1.6% | -30.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.4 | 51.5 | 49.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 593 | 608 | -2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUV | 19.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 44.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 65.1% | 50.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LUV Return | -8% | -21% | -12% | 19% | 26% | -4% | -8% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -26% | 3% | 64% | -9% | -15% | -1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LUV Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 47% | 45% | 60% | 52% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LUV Max Drawdown | -16% | -28% | -33% | -17% | -28% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -35% | -20% | -16% | -46% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAL, AAL, UAL, JBLU, ALK. See LUV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LUV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 188.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 285 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,694 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DAL, AAL, UAL, JBLU, ALK
In The Past
Southwest Airlines's stock fell -65.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -65.3% loss requires a 188.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Southwest Airlines (LUV)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Southwest Airlines (LUV):
- The Walmart of the Skies: Like Walmart, Southwest offers widespread domestic access and a focus on consistent value for its customers across a vast network.
- The Target of the Skies: Positioning itself as a step up from ultra-low-cost options, Southwest provides a value-oriented flying experience with a distinct, often more customer-friendly, brand and unique services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Scheduled Air Transportation: Providing passenger air travel services on scheduled routes within the United States and to near-international destinations.
- Inflight Entertainment and Connectivity: Offering entertainment and Wi-Fi services to passengers during flights.
- Rapid Rewards Loyalty Program: A customer loyalty program allowing members to earn and redeem points for airfare and other benefits.
- Digital Travel Platforms: A suite of online tools, including websites, mobile apps, and SWABIZ, designed to facilitate booking and managing travel.
- Ancillary Travel Services: Supplemental services like EarlyBird Check-In, upgraded boarding, and transportation for pets and unaccompanied minors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Southwest Airlines (LUV) sells primarily to individuals rather than other companies.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families traveling for vacations, holidays, and personal recreation.
- Business Travelers: Individuals flying for work, corporate meetings, conferences, or professional engagements. Southwest's SWABIZ online booking tool specifically caters to the needs of business travelers and corporate travel managers.
- Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) Travelers: Individuals traveling specifically to visit family and friends, which constitutes a significant segment for domestic and near-international carriers like Southwest.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Boeing (BA)
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Robert Jordan, President, Chief Executive Officer, & Vice Chairman of the Board
Mr. Jordan is a 38-year Southwest veteran who has held 15 different positions, including leadership roles in Finance, Planning, Procurement, Fuel, Facilities, Technology, Corporate Strategy, and People & Culture, and previously served as the airline's Chief Commercial Officer. He played a critical role in Southwest's acquisition of AirTran Airways and served as President of AirTran during the integration. Mr. Jordan was responsible for the development of Southwest's e-commerce platform, the Rapid Rewards loyalty program, leading the "Heart" brand refresh, and implementing a new reservations system. During the global pandemic, he led company efforts around voluntary retirement and leave programs to reduce costs and avoid pay cuts. He previously served as a Director and Chairman of The Container Store Group, Inc.
Tom Doxey, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Doxey assumed the role of Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer effective March 10, 2025. He most recently served as president of Breeze Airways, where he led the airline's successful transition from a start-up to profitability in under two years. Under his leadership, Breeze developed a strong customer-focused brand, launched a loyalty program and co-branded credit card, and optimized its fleet and network. Prior to Breeze, Mr. Doxey held several leadership roles at United Airlines, including Senior Vice President of Technical Operations and CFO of Operations, overseeing global maintenance, supply chain, and engineering teams, and leading strategic initiatives. His aviation career began in financial planning and fleet management roles at Allegiant Air and US Airways.
Andrew Watterson, Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Watterson assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer in October 2022. He previously served as Executive Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President & Chief Revenue Officer. Before joining Southwest in 2013, he served as Vice President of Planning and Revenue Management at Hawaiian Airlines and was a partner with Oliver Wyman in the consulting firm's aviation practice for 12 years. Mr. Watterson also spent three years as an operations management consultant with Ernst & Young and served four years in the U.S. Army.
Jeff Novota, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Mr. Novota serves as the Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary for Southwest Airlines.
Ryan Martinez, Senior Vice President, Finance & Controller (Principal Accounting Officer)
Mr. Martinez holds the position of Senior Vice President, Finance & Controller, and Principal Accounting Officer at Southwest Airlines.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Southwest Airlines (LUV) are primarily centered around its ongoing operational and strategic transformation, its heavy reliance on Boeing for its aircraft fleet, and the persistent cost pressures inherent in the airline industry.
- Operational and Strategic Execution Risks: Southwest Airlines is undergoing a significant transformation of its product and distribution model, introducing new concepts such as bag fees, a basic economy fare, and, starting in January 2026, assigned seating and extra legroom. This represents a substantial shift for a company historically built on a single-class, open-seating model. Any missteps in the rollout of these new initiatives could alienate its loyal customer base and negatively impact its brand image and profitability. Furthermore, the December 2022 operational meltdown exposed deep flaws, including outdated scheduling systems and operational vulnerabilities, which severely hampered the airline's ability to recover from disruptions. A failure to fully modernize these legacy systems and effectively integrate communication channels remains a significant risk to operational reliability and efficiency.
- Dependence on Boeing and Fleet Modernization Delays: Southwest Airlines operates an exclusive fleet of Boeing 737 aircraft, making it highly dependent on Boeing as its sole manufacturer. The company's ambitious fleet modernization and growth plans are currently jeopardized by significant delivery delays from Boeing, particularly concerning the 737 MAX 7 model. Southwest expects to receive "well over 100 fewer aircraft in 2026 than originally contractually agreed" due to ongoing production problems and certification delays. These delays can hinder capacity expansions, limit the ability to replace older aircraft, and negatively impact efforts to reduce operating costs, thereby affecting the company's long-term competitive position and financial performance.
- Cost Pressures (Fuel and Labor) and Intense Competition: The airline industry is subject to persistent cost inflation, particularly in fuel and labor, which significantly impacts Southwest's operating expenses. Jet fuel and oil represented a substantial portion of the company's operating expenses, and their costs are highly volatile and unpredictable, directly affecting profitability. Similarly, labor costs, including salaries, wages, and benefits, constitute the largest operating cost category, and increases from new labor contracts and wage inflation continue to exert upward pressure on expenses. Moreover, the airline industry is characterized by intense competition and pricing pressures, which challenge Southwest's ability to maintain its low-cost advantage and differentiate its offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The aggressive expansion and evolving business models of Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers (ULCCs) such as Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, and Breeze Airways pose an emerging threat. These carriers are increasingly competing on routes traditionally dominated by Southwest, offering even lower base fares and expanding their networks, which could erode Southwest's market share among price-sensitive travelers. While Southwest historically offered free checked bags as a differentiator, the growing acceptance of ULCCs' unbundled pricing model threatens to shift consumer expectations regarding what's included in a low-cost fare.
The development and deployment of high-speed rail projects in key domestic corridors represent another emerging threat. For instance, the operational Brightline in Florida and planned projects like Texas Central Railway could offer a competitive alternative for short-to-medium distance travel, directly competing with Southwest's flight services on those routes by providing a faster, more convenient, and potentially more environmentally friendly option for ground transportation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Southwest Airlines (LUV) operates in the scheduled air transportation services market primarily within the United States and several near-international markets. The addressable markets for its main product can be sized as follows:
United States Market
- The U.S. air travel market, measured by departing seat capacity, offered approximately 104 million one-way departing seats in March 2026. This indicates an annual capacity of over 1.2 billion departing seats for the region.
- Historically, more than 926 million passengers were transported in the United States in 2019.
Near-International Markets
Southwest Airlines serves several near-international countries. The addressable market sizes for these regions are generally measured by annual passenger volumes:
- Mexico: The total number of passengers carried by airlines within, to, or from Mexico was 122.7 million in 2025.
- Dominican Republic: This market moved 19.6 million passengers in 2025.
- The Bahamas: Lynden Pindling International Airport, a major hub, welcomed a record 4.06 million passengers during fiscal year 2024. The overall Bahamian air passenger traffic is projected to reach approximately 2.14 million by 2028.
- Costa Rica: Approximately 4 million passengers traveled by air to, from, and within Costa Rica per year in 2023.
- Belize: The air passenger traffic in Belize is projected to reach 1.2 million by 2026, an increase from 850,000 in 2021.
- The Cayman Islands: The national airline transported 422,189 passengers in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
- Cuba: The air passenger traffic in Cuba was approximately 477,000 passengers in 2023, with a slight projected decline to 471,000 by 2028.
- Jamaica: Information on the total passenger volume or market size (revenue/passengers) is not readily available.
- Aruba: Information on the total passenger volume or market size (revenue/passengers) is not readily available.
- Turks and Caicos: Information on the total passenger volume or market size (revenue/passengers) is not readily available.
AI Analysis | Feedback
For Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), the following are expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
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Introduction of New Ancillary Revenue Streams and Enhanced Product Offerings: Southwest Airlines is implementing significant changes to its product, including the transition to assigned seating and the introduction of premium seating options with extra legroom, with sales expected to begin in the second half of 2025 for flights in the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, the company started charging for checked bags in May 2025, departing from its long-standing "bags fly free" policy. The launch of basic economy fares and a new fare structure designed to encourage "buy-up" to higher fare categories, also beginning in May 2025, further contributes to this strategy.
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Network Expansion and International Partnerships: Southwest is actively expanding its network by adding new domestic routes and intrastate services for summer 2025, with Nashville being prioritized as a hub. The airline is also formalizing partnerships with international carriers, such as Icelandair, expected to launch in 2025, and introducing new nonstop international flights to destinations like Cabo San Lucas and Punta Cana, thereby broadening its reach and connecting customers with more global destinations.
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Advanced Revenue Management and Expanded Distribution: The maturation of Southwest's revenue management system and techniques is expected to drive unit revenue growth. The company is also expanding its online presence through new partnerships with major travel aggregators like Expedia and Priceline, aimed at increasing visibility and market share.
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Loyalty Program Optimization and New Vacation Packages: Enhancements to the Rapid Rewards loyalty program, including optimizing variable earn and burn rates and improved co-brand credit card benefits, are in progress. Furthermore, Southwest intends to launch "Getaways by Southwest™," offering customizable vacation packages in 2025 to diversify revenue streams and enhance customer value.
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Increased Aircraft Utilization: Initiatives such as the introduction of redeye flying in key markets, expected to begin in February 2025, are designed to maximize aircraft productivity and utilization. This strategy aims to generate more available seat miles (ASMs) and, consequently, more revenue from the existing fleet, especially given ongoing Boeing delivery constraints.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Southwest Airlines repurchased $2.6 billion in shares during 2025.
- In September 2024, the company authorized a $2.5 billion share repurchase program and initially intended to repurchase $250 million.
- Southwest Airlines planned to launch an additional $750 million accelerated share repurchase program in the first quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Expected net capital spending for 2026 is projected to be in the range of $3.0 billion to $3.5 billion, with a focus on operational enhancements, growth strategies, and the delivery of Boeing 737-8 aircraft.
- Net capital expenditures for 2025 were $2.6 billion.
- Full year 2024 net capital expenditures amounted to $1.2 billion, which included proceeds of $871 million from sale-leaseback transactions.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to LUV.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
| 02132026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -3.0% |
| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 02132026 | PCTY | Paylocity | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -4.8% |
| 09302024 | LUV | Southwest Airlines | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 14.6% | 10.1% | -18.0% |
| 04302020 | LUV | Southwest Airlines | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.6% | 100.9% | -23.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.8 |
| Rev LTM | 41,348 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,090 |
| FCF LTM | -584 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -73 |
| CFO LTM | 1,886 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,419 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.8 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 25.2 |
| P/CFO | 3.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| D/E | 1.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -23.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -18.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $37.36 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 22.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $45.74 | $36.82 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -18.3% | 1.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.3% | 48.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| Upside Capture | 158.35 | 129.39 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 35.1% | 58.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.60 | 0.72 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 1.36 | 1.12 |
| Up Beta | -0.03 | 1.06 | 0.56 | 0.80 | 1.39 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | 1.79 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 1.72 | 1.38 |
| Up Capture | 201% | 141% | 220% | 147% | 142% | 90% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 71 | 139 | 396 |
| Down Capture | -106% | -27% | -27% | 35% | 92% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 26 | 53 | 112 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUV | 10.9% | 48.7% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.5% | 19.2% | 0.84 | 62.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 58.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 55.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 44.0% | -0.41 | 16.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUV | -7.5% | 37.6% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.3% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 54.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 49.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 42.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.7% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 20.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUV | -0.5% | 37.2% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 19.8% | 0.58 | 60.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 52.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 16.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 45.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 12.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/28/2026 | 18.7% | 28.7% | 20.6% |
| 10/22/2025 | -6.2% | -9.2% | -7.7% |
| 7/23/2025 | -11.2% | -18.0% | -17.0% |
| 4/23/2025 | 3.7% | 9.6% | 22.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -1.2% | -2.4% | -1.9% |
| 10/24/2024 | -5.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| 7/25/2024 | 5.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | -7.0% | -12.4% | -9.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| # Negative | 16 | 16 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 5.0% | 11.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -4.4% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 18.7% | 28.7% | 31.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -18.0% | -17.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS | 0.45 | ||||||
| Q1 2026 ASMs | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | ||||
| Q1 2026 RASM | 0.1 | ||||||
| Q1 2026 CASM-X | 0.04 | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 4 | ||||||
| 2026 ASMs | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | ||||
| 2026 Net Capital Spending | 3.00 Bil | 3.25 Bil | 3.50 Bil | 18.2% | Higher New | Actual: 2.75 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jones, Justin | EVP Operations | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 37.36 | 8,085 | 302,056 | 2,311,090 | Form |
| 2 | Feinberg, Sarah | Direct | Buy | 8072025 | 30.01 | 1,500 | 45,008 | 426,943 | Form | |
| 3 | Saretsky, Gregg A | Direct | Buy | 8072025 | 30.03 | 3,345 | 100,447 | 710,008 | Form | |
| 4 | Saretsky, Gregg A | Direct | Buy | 5012025 | 27.29 | 3,670 | 100,169 | 406,162 | Form | |
| 5 | Breber, Pierre R | Family Trust | Buy | 4302025 | 26.89 | 10,000 | 268,877 | 1,183,059 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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