Tearsheet

Southwest Airlines (LUV)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $41.33 | Market Cap: $21.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Southwest Airlines (LUV)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $41.33
Market Cap: $21.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.4%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -57%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Mobility. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Mobility. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -57%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LUV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Southwest Airlines (LUV) stock moved by 25.1% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 13, 2025:

1. Strategic Business Model Overhaul to Boost Profitability: Southwest Airlines is actively implementing a significant strategic overhaul, departing from long-standing traditions such as open seating. The company is introducing assigned seating (effective January 27, 2026), preferred and extra-legroom seats, and cabin upgrades including larger overhead bins, in-seat power, and faster Wi-Fi. Furthermore, Southwest is seriously considering offering first-class seating and establishing its own airport lounge network in partnership with Chase to enhance loyalty revenue and appeal to premium customers. These strategic shifts are largely viewed positively by analysts as they aim to improve revenue yield and profitability.

2. Q3 2025 Earnings Exceed Expectations: Southwest Airlines reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 22-23, 2025, with record third-quarter operating revenues of $6.9 billion. This performance exceeded the company's expectations, driven by better-than-anticipated unit revenues and unit costs. The company initially reaffirmed its full-year 2025 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) guidance range of $600 million to $800 million, which provided a positive signal to investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LUV Return-13%-8%-21%-12%19%23%-19%
Peers Return-34%2%-26%3%64%-8%-23%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LUV Win Rate58%33%50%33%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate42%47%47%45%60%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LUV Max Drawdown-56%-16%-28%-33%-17%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-68%-11%-35%-20%-16%-46% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, AAL, UAL, JBLU, ALK. See LUV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLUVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven188.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven145.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven285 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-69.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1694 days1480 days

Compare to VTOL, CAKR, RJET, DAL, UAL


In The Past

Southwest Airlines's stock fell -65.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -65.3% loss requires a 188.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Southwest Airlines (LUV)

Better Bets than Southwest Airlines (LUV)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LUV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%22.9%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.8%1.8%0.0%
LUV_4302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302020LUVSouthwest AirlinesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
26.6%100.9%-23.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%22.9%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.8%1.8%0.0%
LUV_4302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302020LUVSouthwest AirlinesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
26.6%100.9%-23.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Southwest Airlines

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LUVDALAALUALJBLUALKMedian
NameSouthwes.Delta Ai.American.United A.JetBlue .Alaska A. 
Mkt Price41.1769.8114.96106.844.9451.4046.28
Mkt Cap21.545.39.934.61.85.915.7
Rev LTM27,55162,92054,29458,3689,09514,14140,922
Op Inc LTM3156,0722,2595,165-2226031,431
FCF LTM-2503,0748823,710-1,354-54414
FCF 3Y Avg-1,0191,8359621,783-1,156-292335
CFO LTM2,0247,9763,7719,369-1601,3382,898
CFO 3Y Avg1,9177,2533,6678,2201531,1962,792

Growth & Margins

LUVDALAALUALJBLUALKMedian
NameSouthwes.Delta Ai.American.United A.JetBlue .Alaska A. 
Rev Chg LTM0.6%4.3%1.3%4.2%-2.5%31.5%2.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.8%10.8%6.5%13.2%2.3%16.5%8.8%
Rev Chg Q1.1%6.4%0.3%2.6%-1.8%22.6%1.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.3%1.6%0.1%0.7%-0.5%5.2%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM1.1%9.7%4.2%8.8%-2.4%4.3%4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg0.3%9.5%6.1%9.2%-1.0%6.9%6.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%0.3%-0.9%-0.5%-0.9%-1.7%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM7.3%12.7%6.9%16.1%-1.8%9.5%8.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.3%12.1%6.9%14.8%1.5%10.3%8.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.9%4.9%1.6%6.4%-14.9%-0.4%0.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.8%3.0%1.8%3.1%-12.4%-2.7%-0.5%

Valuation

LUVDALAALUALJBLUALKMedian
NameSouthwes.Delta Ai.American.United A.JetBlue .Alaska A. 
Mkt Cap21.545.39.934.61.85.915.7
P/S0.60.60.10.50.20.40.5
P/EBIT27.15.62.85.7-28.013.95.6
P/E44.08.012.39.5-3.838.310.9
P/CFO8.24.62.03.3-11.24.33.8
Total Yield4.7%13.2%8.1%10.5%-26.2%2.6%6.4%
Dividend Yield2.4%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.9%5.7%11.6%7.7%-60.1%-5.8%-0.1%
D/E0.30.64.91.05.31.11.1
Net D/E0.10.53.90.63.80.70.7

Returns

LUVDALAALUALJBLUALKMedian
NameSouthwes.Delta Ai.American.United A.JetBlue .Alaska A. 
1M Rtn23.5%15.4%11.1%6.9%12.3%18.4%13.8%
3M Rtn30.0%17.0%15.9%0.2%-2.2%-18.9%8.1%
6M Rtn31.2%49.4%44.3%44.4%10.5%8.3%37.7%
12M Rtn26.7%14.6%-13.2%11.3%-31.8%-19.0%-0.9%
3Y Rtn16.6%115.0%11.1%159.5%-30.4%13.5%15.1%
1M Excs Rtn23.8%15.8%11.5%7.2%12.6%18.7%14.2%
3M Excs Rtn27.8%16.7%16.2%-1.0%-2.6%-16.3%7.6%
6M Excs Rtn17.0%35.2%30.0%30.1%-3.7%-5.9%23.5%
12M Excs Rtn12.8%-0.6%-27.6%-2.5%-40.3%-29.3%-15.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-57.0%35.5%-63.1%68.9%-109.3%-57.5%-57.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment26,09123,81415,7909,04822,428
Total26,09123,81415,7909,04822,428


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity32,079,035
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-4.2%
Average Daily Volume6,002,984
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.34
Basic Shares Quantity523,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-6.2%-9.2%-7.7%
7/23/2025-11.2%-18.0%-17.0%
4/23/20253.7%9.6%22.3%
1/30/2025-1.2%-2.4%-1.9%
10/24/2024-5.6%2.4%3.4%
7/25/20245.5%1.2%1.2%
4/25/2024-7.0%-12.4%-9.0%
1/25/2024-2.3%-3.9%8.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8812
# Negative161612
Median Positive3.1%5.0%7.1%
Median Negative-3.2%-4.4%-7.0%
Max Positive5.5%9.6%31.7%
Max Negative-11.2%-18.0%-17.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241028202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024729202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021207202210-K 12/31/2021