Tearsheet

Southwest Airlines (LUV)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $31.8 | Market Cap: $16.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Southwest Airlines (LUV)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $31.8
Market Cap: $16.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Mobility. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Mobility. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

LUV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025, Southwest Airlines (LUV) stock moved by 3.6% due to several key factors, primarily related to its third-quarter 2025 financial performance and operational updates.

1. Southwest Airlines reported a significant earnings beat for Q3 2025. The company posted an adjusted profit of $0.11 per share, which substantially exceeded analyst expectations of a loss, representing a +1000.00% earnings surprise. This positive surprise likely contributed to a favorable stock movement.

2. The airline achieved record third-quarter revenue and observed a positive inflection in demand. Southwest reported record Q3 2025 revenue of $6.95 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year. The company also noted a clear positive inflection in demand that began in early July and continued throughout the quarter.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LUV Return-13%-8%-21%-12%19%-4%-37%
Peers Return4%5%-19%7%51%-8%31%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LUV Win Rate58%33%50%33%75%40% 
Peers Win Rate40%48%53%43%62%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LUV Max Drawdown-56%-16%-28%-33%-15%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-67%-11%-30%-17%-15%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VTOL, DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL. See LUV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLUVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven188.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven145.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven285 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-69.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1694 days1480 days

Compare to VTOL, DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL


In The Past

Southwest Airlines's stock fell -65.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -65.3% loss requires a 188.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Southwest Airlines (LUV)

Better Bets than Southwest Airlines (LUV)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LUV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
LUV_4302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302020LUVSouthwest AirlinesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
26.6%100.9%-23.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
LUV_4302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302020LUVSouthwest AirlinesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
26.6%100.9%-23.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Southwest Airlines

Financials

LUVVTOLDALUALAALMedian
NameSouthwes.Bristow Delta Ai.United A.American. 
Mkt Price31.8537.0855.7689.9512.3437.08
Mkt Cap16.71.136.229.18.116.7
Rev LTM27,5511,46762,92058,36854,29454,294
Op Inc LTM3151426,0725,1652,2592,259
FCF LTM-250-243,0743,710882882
FCF 3Y Avg-1,019-481,8351,783962962
CFO LTM2,0241737,9769,3693,7713,771
CFO 3Y Avg1,9171047,2538,2203,6673,667

Growth & Margins

LUVVTOLDALUALAALMedian
NameSouthwes.Bristow Delta Ai.United A.American. 
Rev Chg LTM0.6%4.8%4.3%4.2%1.3%4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.8%7.4%10.8%13.2%6.5%7.4%
Rev Chg Q1.1%5.8%6.4%2.6%0.3%2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.3%1.5%1.6%0.7%0.1%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM1.1%9.7%9.7%8.8%4.2%8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg0.3%7.3%9.5%9.2%6.1%7.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%0.5%0.3%-0.5%-0.9%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM7.3%11.8%12.7%16.1%6.9%11.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.3%7.3%12.1%14.8%6.9%7.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.9%-1.6%4.9%6.4%1.6%1.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.8%-3.6%3.0%3.1%1.8%1.8%

Valuation

LUVVTOLDALUALAALMedian
NameSouthwes.Bristow Delta Ai.United A.American. 
Mkt Cap16.71.136.229.18.116.7
P/S0.60.70.60.50.20.6
P/EBIT27.15.75.55.33.15.5
P/E44.07.57.88.813.58.8
P/CFO8.26.24.53.12.24.5
Total Yield4.7%13.3%13.4%11.3%7.4%11.3%
Dividend Yield2.4%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.9%-5.2%5.7%7.7%11.6%5.7%
D/E0.30.90.61.14.40.9
Net D/E0.10.60.50.63.60.6

Returns

LUVVTOLDALUALAALMedian
NameSouthwes.Bristow Delta Ai.United A.American. 
1M Rtn-5.0%-2.9%-6.5%-9.3%4.0%-5.0%
3M Rtn2.3%-2.9%-8.4%-12.1%-6.3%-6.3%
6M Rtn-1.2%25.2%9.6%14.4%4.0%9.6%
12M Rtn-0.1%1.3%-11.9%-1.3%-14.2%-1.3%
3Y Rtn-10.6%47.9%66.3%105.3%-12.2%47.9%
1M Excs Rtn-5.1%-3.1%-6.6%-9.4%3.9%-5.1%
3M Excs Rtn-2.7%-5.3%-11.6%-16.0%-10.7%-10.7%
6M Excs Rtn-13.0%13.3%-2.2%2.5%-7.8%-2.2%
12M Excs Rtn-10.9%-10.7%-23.9%-11.3%-23.4%-11.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-80.8%-31.9%-7.2%34.3%-86.0%-31.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment26,09123,81415,7909,04822,428
Total26,09123,81415,7909,04822,428


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity33,537,516
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520253.1%
Average Daily Volume11,405,427
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.94
Basic Shares Quantity523,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.4%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-6.2%-9.2% 
7/23/2025-11.2%-18.0%-17.0%
4/23/20253.7%9.6%22.3%
1/30/2025-1.2%-2.4%-1.9%
10/24/2024-5.6%2.4%3.4%
7/25/20245.5%1.2%1.2%
4/25/2024-7.0%-12.4%-9.0%
1/25/2024-2.3%-3.9%8.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8812
# Negative161612
Median Positive3.1%5.0%7.1%
Median Negative-3.2%-4.4%-6.3%
Max Positive5.5%9.6%31.7%
Max Negative-11.2%-18.0%-17.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241028202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024729202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021207202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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