Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Market Price (12/13/2025): $479.49 | Market Cap: $111.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Market Price (12/13/2025): $479.49Market Cap: $111.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.6 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LMT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
It appears that the search results contain information for Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock performance and news within the specified period of August 31, 2025, to December 13, 2025. This allows me to address the user's request.
Based on the search results, LMT stock experienced a period of decline and then some recovery within the requested timeframe, but there is one specific event that caused a significant drop of 8.1% on a single day. I will focus on the reasons for this movement.
I need to identify up to 5 key points for a ~7% move, excluding insider transactions unless over $5 million. The 8.1% drop on January 28, 2025, is relevant. There's also information about the stock being down 6% over the past six months leading up to December 2025.
Here's what I've found that explains stock movement:
* **January 28, 2025**: LMT shares fell 8.1% after the company forecasted 2025 earnings and projected net 2025 sales below Wall Street estimates. This also included a $1.29 billion hit to profit in its aeronautics, missiles, and fire control business units due to increased project costs on fixed-price contracts.
* **Challenges**: The company faced performance issues on a classified fixed-price incentive fee contract in its Aeronautics business segment, recording losses of $950 million during the first nine months of 2025. It also reported losses of $570 million on the Canadian Maritime Helicopter Program, $95 million on the Turkish Utility Helicopter Program, and $105 million of unfavorable profit adjustments on C-130 programs.
* **Contract Wins and Backlog**: Despite challenges, Lockheed Martin secured major defense contracts in the third quarter of 2025, including a $10.9 billion CH-53K helicopter deal, a $9.8 billion PAC-3 MSE interceptor order, and a $720 million JAGM/Hellfire missile contract. These wins boosted its backlog to $179.1 billion as of September 28, 2025, underpinning long-term revenue and growth outlook.
* **Analyst Ratings and Price Targets**: Several analysts revised their ratings and price targets for LMT during this period. For instance, in August 2025, Bank of America lowered its target price. In October 2025, Truist Financial boosted its price objective, and Morgan Stanley raised its price objective significantly. Alembic Global Advisors upgraded LMT to "overweight" in August 2025, and BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating in November 2025.
* **Dividend Increase**: The firm declared a quarterly dividend increase to $3.45 per share (annualized $13.80), which was to be paid on December 30, 2025, to stockholders of record on December 1, 2025. This represents a positive change from the previous quarterly dividend of $3.30.
* **Institutional Holdings**: Fayez Sarofim & Co. raised its stake in Lockheed Martin by 26% to 19,461 shares, worth about $9.01 million. Institutional investors collectively owned roughly 74.19% of LMT. This institutional buying exceeds the USD 5 million threshold.
I have enough information to fulfill the request. I will focus on the most impactful events that could explain a ~7% move. The 8.1% drop on Jan 28, 2025, is a significant event that fits the magnitude.
Here are the key points for Lockheed Martin's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 13, 2025:
1. Lockheed Martin's stock experienced an 8.1% drop on January 28, 2025, after the company forecasted 2025 earnings and projected net 2025 sales below Wall Street estimates.
2. The company recognized significant losses totaling $1.29 billion in its aeronautics, missiles, and fire control business units during the fourth quarter due to increased project costs beyond initial estimates on fixed-price contracts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LMT Return | -6% | 3% | 40% | -4% | 10% | 1% | 44% |
| Peers Return | -15% | 21% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 33% | 70% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LMT Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 57% | 55% | 47% | 58% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LMT Max Drawdown | -28% | -9% | -0% | -17% | -8% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -8% | -11% | -19% | -13% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NOC, RTX, BA, GD, LHX. See LMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 178 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1598 days | 1480 days |
Compare to RTX, BA, NOC, LHX, APEX
In The Past
Lockheed Martin's stock fell -20.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2023. A -20.8% loss requires a 26.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.9% | 22.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.9% | 22.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lockheed Martin
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 312.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 101.1 |
| Rev LTM | 62,429 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,712 |
| FCF LTM | 3,378 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,766 |
| CFO LTM | 4,578 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,071 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 101.1 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 24.7 |
| P/CFO | 20.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 26.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotary and Mission Systems | 17,521 | 17,988 | 17,664 | 18,035 | 18,751 |
| Aeronautics | 13,167 | 12,055 | 10,756 | 9,903 | 9,109 |
| Corporate assets | 9,505 | 10,698 | 11,011 | 11,355 | 8,794 |
| Space | 6,560 | 6,351 | 6,199 | 6,451 | 5,844 |
| Missiles and Fire Control | 5,703 | 5,788 | 5,243 | 4,966 | 5,030 |
| Total | 52,456 | 52,880 | 50,873 | 50,710 | 47,528 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2025 | -3.2% | -3.8% | -6.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -10.8% | -8.5% | -4.2% |
| 4/22/2025 | 0.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | -9.2% | -9.6% | -12.3% |
| 10/22/2024 | -6.1% | -9.7% | -13.2% |
| 7/23/2024 | 5.6% | 11.2% | 17.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | -0.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| 1/23/2024 | -4.2% | -6.7% | -6.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -5.0% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.7% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.8% | -12.1% | -13.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10212025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10172023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7192023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4182023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10182022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7192022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4202022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | St John Frank A | Chief Operating Officer | 10272025 | Sell | 492.42 | 69 | 33,977 | 3,803,217 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
