Tearsheet

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)


Market Price (10/19/2025): $27.97 | Market Cap: $38.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)


Market Price (10/19/2025): $27.97
Market Cap: $38.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106%
 
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

KDP Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KDP Return13%17%-1%-4%-1%-10%12%
Peers Return11%14%6%1%-7%-5%20%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KDP Win Rate50%50%42%42%50%44% 
Peers Win Rate65%55%55%53%47%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KDP Max Drawdown-32%-4%-6%-20%-13%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-9%-11%-13%-10%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, MDLZ, KHC, STZ. See KDP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventKDPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-13.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven129 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-55.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven164 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Keurig Dr Pepper's stock fell -30.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -30.4% loss requires a 43.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KDP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
IPAR_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.0%-0.0%-6.0%
TAP_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.6%4.6%0.0%
STZ_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-15.9%-15.9%-21.1%
SJM_6302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302025SJMJM SmuckerDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
BF-B_5312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.5%-12.5%-22.4%
KDP_12312018_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312018KDPKeurig Dr PepperQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
16.3%15.4%-1.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
IPAR_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.0%-0.0%-6.0%
TAP_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.6%4.6%0.0%
STZ_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-15.9%-15.9%-21.1%
SJM_6302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302025SJMJM SmuckerDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
BF-B_5312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.5%-12.5%-22.4%
KDP_12312018_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312018KDPKeurig Dr PepperQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
16.3%15.4%-1.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Keurig Dr Pepper

Financials

KDPKOPEPMDLZKHCSTZMedian
NameKeurig D.Coca-ColaPepsiCo Mondelez.Kraft He.Constell. 
Mkt Price28.0368.44153.7162.4625.52140.4165.45
Mkt Cap38.1294.6210.480.930.224.759.5
Rev LTM15,75947,06292,36637,10525,3109,62431,208
Op Inc LTM3,38214,41812,1934,8785,1623,0425,020
FCF LTM1,575-7226,7882,8613,4941,8482,355
FCF 3Y Avg1,3865,9406,6453,1212,8961,6773,008
CFO LTM2,1171,30111,7554,1644,4002,7693,467
CFO 3Y Avg1,8957,82811,9744,3223,9232,8414,122

Growth & Margins

KDPKOPEPMDLZKHCSTZMedian
NameKeurig D.Coca-ColaPepsiCo Mondelez.Kraft He.Constell. 
Rev Chg LTM4.6%1.3%0.5%3.1%-3.8%-5.6%0.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.9%4.5%3.4%7.6%-0.3%0.7%4.0%
Rev Chg Q6.1%1.4%2.7%7.7%-1.9%-15.0%2.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%0.4%0.7%1.8%-0.5%-4.4%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM21.5%30.6%13.2%13.1%20.4%31.6%20.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.5%29.4%13.8%14.7%19.5%31.7%20.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.6%-0.3%0.6%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM13.4%2.8%12.7%11.2%17.4%28.8%13.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.5%17.3%13.0%12.1%15.0%28.8%14.0%
FCF/Rev LTM10.0%-1.5%7.3%7.7%13.8%19.2%8.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%13.1%7.2%8.7%11.1%17.0%10.1%

Valuation

KDPKOPEPMDLZKHCSTZMedian
NameKeurig D.Coca-ColaPepsiCo Mondelez.Kraft He.Constell. 
Mkt Cap38.1294.6210.480.930.224.759.5
P/S2.46.32.32.21.22.62.3
P/EBIT14.117.620.817.3-4.511.615.7
P/E24.824.229.122.2-5.720.223.2
P/CFO18.0226.417.919.46.98.917.9
Total Yield5.7%7.0%7.0%7.5%-11.1%6.4%6.7%
Dividend Yield1.6%2.9%3.6%3.0%6.3%1.5%2.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.1%2.2%3.1%3.4%8.0%4.9%3.3%
D/E0.50.20.00.30.70.40.3
Net D/E0.40.10.00.20.60.40.3

Returns

KDPKOPEPMDLZKHCSTZMedian
NameKeurig D.Coca-ColaPepsiCo Mondelez.Kraft He.Constell. 
1M Rtn4.0%3.0%9.2%-0.5%-2.1%5.6%3.5%
3M Rtn-15.7%-1.3%8.4%-9.8%-6.9%-17.2%-8.4%
6M Rtn-19.5%-4.9%9.9%-5.8%-10.8%-23.9%-8.3%
12M Rtn-21.8%0.1%-8.8%-10.1%-25.1%-40.6%-16.0%
3Y Rtn-19.6%33.9%-2.5%16.9%-18.8%-33.8%-10.6%
1M Excs Rtn3.5%2.5%8.7%-0.9%-2.6%5.1%3.0%
3M Excs Rtn-20.8%-7.3%3.9%-15.0%-11.5%-21.6%-13.2%
6M Excs Rtn-45.7%-31.0%-16.3%-32.0%-36.9%-50.1%-34.4%
12M Excs Rtn-36.4%-14.4%-23.8%-25.0%-39.1%-55.8%-30.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-105.7%-50.5%-86.5%-67.6%-102.8%-120.1%-94.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
US Refreshment Beverages8,8218,0837,120  
US Coffee4,0714,3024,089  
International1,9221,6721,474  
Beverage Concentrates   1,3251,414
Coffee Systems   4,4334,233
Latin America Beverages   497528
Packaged Beverages   5,3634,945
Total14,81414,05712,68311,61811,120


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
US Refreshment Beverages2,4831,9611,961  
US Coffee1,1581,2151,306  
International475373382  
Unallocated corporate costs-924-944-755-647-638
Beverage Concentrates   932955
Coffee Systems   1,2681,219
Latin America Beverages   10585
Packaged Beverages   822757
Total3,1922,6052,8942,4802,378


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25,178,896
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-11.4%
Average Daily Volume19,857,429
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.27
Basic Shares Quantity1,358,300,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/24/20250.2%1.0%5.1%
2/25/20252.4%0.0%-0.8%
10/24/2024-4.8%-10.1%-12.2%
7/25/20241.3%4.6%8.8%
2/22/2024-3.9%-5.0%-6.4%
10/26/20231.4%4.7%12.1%
7/27/20233.7%5.9%2.7%
2/23/20230.9%-4.4%-4.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10109
# Negative9910
Median Positive3.1%4.6%7.0%
Median Negative-1.9%-4.3%-3.5%
Max Positive5.9%5.9%12.1%
Max Negative-4.8%-10.1%-13.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211028202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Gamgort Robert James 8222025Sell35.917,601272,95282,038,837Form
1Gamgort Robert James 8052025Sell32.90208,0006,843,20075,412,360Form
2DeNooyer Mary BethChief Human Resources Officer7182025Sell33.6612,000403,9202,777,320Form
3DeNooyer Mary BethChief Human Resources Officer7022025Sell33.6411,889399,9463,183,084Form
4Van de Ven Michael G 6062025Buy33.2015,000498,000498,000Form