Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $27.97 | Market Cap: $38.0 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $27.97Market Cap: $38.0 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% | |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
KDP Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
KDP Return | 13% | 17% | -1% | -4% | -1% | -10% | 12% |
Peers Return | 11% | 14% | 6% | 1% | -7% | -5% | 20% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
KDP Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 44% | |
Peers Win Rate | 65% | 55% | 55% | 53% | 47% | 47% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
KDP Max Drawdown | -32% | -4% | -6% | -20% | -13% | -19% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -9% | -11% | -13% | -10% | -15% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, MDLZ, KHC, STZ. See KDP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | KDP | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -30.4% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -33.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -13.6% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -55.1% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 122.9% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Keurig Dr Pepper's stock fell -30.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -30.4% loss requires a 43.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KDP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -6.0% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.9% | -15.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.5% | -12.5% | -22.4% |
12312018 | KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.3% | 15.4% | -1.8% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -6.0% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.9% | -15.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.5% | -12.5% | -22.4% |
12312018 | KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.3% | 15.4% | -1.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Keurig Dr Pepper
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 65.45 |
Mkt Cap | 59.5 |
Rev LTM | 31,208 |
Op Inc LTM | 5,020 |
FCF LTM | 2,355 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 3,008 |
CFO LTM | 3,467 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 4,122 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
Rev Chg Q | 2.0% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
Op Mgn LTM | 20.9% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 59.5 |
P/S | 2.3 |
P/EBIT | 15.7 |
P/E | 23.2 |
P/CFO | 17.9 |
Total Yield | 6.7% |
Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
D/E | 0.3 |
Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 3.5% |
3M Rtn | -8.4% |
6M Rtn | -8.3% |
12M Rtn | -16.0% |
3Y Rtn | -10.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
3M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | -34.4% |
12M Excs Rtn | -30.7% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -94.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
US Refreshment Beverages | 8,821 | 8,083 | 7,120 | ||
US Coffee | 4,071 | 4,302 | 4,089 | ||
International | 1,922 | 1,672 | 1,474 | ||
Beverage Concentrates | 1,325 | 1,414 | |||
Coffee Systems | 4,433 | 4,233 | |||
Latin America Beverages | 497 | 528 | |||
Packaged Beverages | 5,363 | 4,945 | |||
Total | 14,814 | 14,057 | 12,683 | 11,618 | 11,120 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
US Refreshment Beverages | 2,483 | 1,961 | 1,961 | ||
US Coffee | 1,158 | 1,215 | 1,306 | ||
International | 475 | 373 | 382 | ||
Unallocated corporate costs | -924 | -944 | -755 | -647 | -638 |
Beverage Concentrates | 932 | 955 | |||
Coffee Systems | 1,268 | 1,219 | |||
Latin America Beverages | 105 | 85 | |||
Packaged Beverages | 822 | 757 | |||
Total | 3,192 | 2,605 | 2,894 | 2,480 | 2,378 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/24/2025 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 5.1% |
2/25/2025 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -0.8% |
10/24/2024 | -4.8% | -10.1% | -12.2% |
7/25/2024 | 1.3% | 4.6% | 8.8% |
2/22/2024 | -3.9% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
10/26/2023 | 1.4% | 4.7% | 12.1% |
7/27/2023 | 3.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
2/23/2023 | 0.9% | -4.4% | -4.7% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
# Negative | 9 | 9 | 10 |
Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% |
Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.3% | -3.5% |
Max Positive | 5.9% | 5.9% | 12.1% |
Max Negative | -4.8% | -10.1% | -13.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10282021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Gamgort Robert James | 8222025 | Sell | 35.91 | 7,601 | 272,952 | 82,038,837 | Form | |
1 | Gamgort Robert James | 8052025 | Sell | 32.90 | 208,000 | 6,843,200 | 75,412,360 | Form | |
2 | DeNooyer Mary Beth | Chief Human Resources Officer | 7182025 | Sell | 33.66 | 12,000 | 403,920 | 2,777,320 | Form |
3 | DeNooyer Mary Beth | Chief Human Resources Officer | 7022025 | Sell | 33.64 | 11,889 | 399,946 | 3,183,084 | Form |
4 | Van de Ven Michael G | 6062025 | Buy | 33.20 | 15,000 | 498,000 | 498,000 | Form |
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