JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $297.9 | Market Cap: $830.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $297.9Market Cap: $830.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -85%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -85% | |
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -49% | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8% |
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -49% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% |
Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -85%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -85% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
JPM Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
JPM Return | -6% | 28% | -13% | 31% | 44% | 27% | 155% |
Peers Return | -5% | 38% | -15% | 15% | 37% | 26% | 121% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
JPM Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 78% | |
Peers Win Rate | 53% | 62% | 45% | 53% | 60% | 64% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
JPM Max Drawdown | -43% | -1% | -34% | -6% | -1% | -11% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -2% | -25% | -15% | -5% | -16% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BAC, WFC, MS, RY, C. See JPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | JPM | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -40.6% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 448 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -44.0% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 297 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 263 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -70.1% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 234.6% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1535 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
JPMorgan Chase's stock fell -40.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -40.6% loss requires a 68.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JPM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.4% | -12.4% | -12.7% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.4% | -12.4% | -12.7% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for JPMorgan Chase
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 121.43 |
Mkt Cap | 259.7 |
Rev LTM | 82,288 |
Op Inc LTM | - |
FCF LTM | -15,042 |
FCF 3Y Avg | -5,908 |
CFO LTM | -13,406 |
CFO 3Y Avg | -4,245 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
Op Mgn LTM | - |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
CFO/Rev LTM | -20.0% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
FCF/Rev LTM | -22.6% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 259.7 |
P/S | 3.6 |
P/EBIT | - |
P/E | 13.6 |
P/CFO | -3.8 |
Total Yield | 7.5% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
D/E | 1.1 |
Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -0.3% |
3M Rtn | 6.8% |
6M Rtn | 34.4% |
12M Rtn | 33.8% |
3Y Rtn | 111.9% |
1M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
3M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
6M Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
12M Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 40.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer & Community Banking | 70,148 | 54,814 | 49,879 | 51,268 | 55,133 |
Commercial & Investment Bank | 64,353 | 59,635 | 51,943 | 49,284 | 39,265 |
Asset & Wealth Management | 19,827 | 17,748 | 16,957 | 14,240 | 13,591 |
Corporate | 8,038 | 80 | -3,483 | -1,176 | 1,211 |
Reconciling Items | -4,262 | -3,582 | -3,655 | -2,978 | -3,065 |
Commercial Banking | 10,008 | 9,313 | 9,264 | ||
Total | 158,104 | 128,695 | 121,649 | 119,951 | 115,399 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer & Community Banking | 21,232 | 14,916 | 20,957 | 8,217 | 16,541 |
Commercial & Investment Bank | 20,272 | 19,138 | 21,107 | 17,094 | 11,954 |
Asset & Wealth Management | 5,227 | 4,365 | 4,737 | 2,992 | 2,867 |
Corporate | 2,821 | -743 | -3,713 | -1,750 | 1,111 |
Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Commercial Banking | 5,246 | 2,578 | 3,958 | ||
Total | 49,552 | 37,676 | 48,334 | 29,131 | 36,431 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commercial & Investment Bank | 1,638,493 | 1,591,402 | 1,259,896 | 1,095,926 | 914,705 |
Corporate | 1,348,437 | 1,328,219 | 1,518,100 | 1,359,831 | 837,618 |
Consumer & Community Banking | 642,951 | 514,085 | 500,370 | 496,705 | 541,367 |
Asset & Wealth Management | 245,512 | 232,037 | 234,425 | 203,384 | 173,175 |
Commercial Banking | 230,776 | 228,911 | 220,514 | ||
Total | 3,875,393 | 3,665,743 | 3,743,567 | 3,384,757 | 2,687,379 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
10/14/2025 | -1.9% | ||
7/15/2025 | -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
4/11/2025 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 14.5% |
1/15/2025 | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.7% |
10/11/2024 | 4.4% | 5.4% | 11.3% |
7/12/2024 | -1.2% | 1.2% | -0.8% |
4/12/2024 | -6.5% | -7.3% | 1.7% |
1/12/2024 | -0.7% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 10 | 12 | 19 |
# Negative | 14 | 12 | 5 |
Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% |
Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.2% | -9.8% |
Max Positive | 7.6% | 9.2% | 23.7% |
Max Negative | -6.5% | -13.8% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
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