JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $310.11 | Market Cap: $848.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $310.11Market Cap: $848.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -40% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 73 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81% Key risksJPM key risks include [1] substantial legal and reputational exposure from intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -40% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 73 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81% |
| Key risksJPM key risks include [1] substantial legal and reputational exposure from intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Mixed Q4 2025 Earnings Report and Initial Sell-Off.
JPMorgan Chase announced its Fourth-Quarter 2025 earnings on January 13, 2026, reporting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $5.23, which beat analysts' estimates by 6.30%. However, the company's quarterly revenue of $45.80 billion was slightly below the consensus estimate of $45.98 billion. This mixed performance, coupled with a 5% decline in Investment Banking fees, led to a 4.2% drop in JPM's stock price the day following the earnings announcement.
2. Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds and Market Uncertainty.
The banking sector, including JPMorgan Chase, has faced increased macroeconomic uncertainty during early 2026. Factors such as persistent energy-driven inflation and a volatile interest rate environment, exacerbated by events like the "March Oil Shock" that caused inflation anxiety, have put pressure on financial institutions. Additionally, signs of a weakening U.S. labor market, with the economy recently adding 6,000 jobs per month compared to a five-year average of 180,000, and increasing economic uncertainty could lead to wider credit spreads. This shift away from an era of easy growth driven by high interest margins towards a focus on fee-based revenue also presents a structural challenge for banks.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.9% change in JPM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 319.14 | 309.87 | -2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 179,430 | 182,435 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.3% | 31.3% | -3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 14.9 | -2.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,762 | 2,735 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | -2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 54.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.3% | 87.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.3% change in JPM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 310.90 | 309.87 | -0.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 175,656 | 182,435 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.2% | 31.3% | -2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 14.9 | -3.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,789 | 2,735 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | -0.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 52.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.4% | 79.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.6% change in JPM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 239.15 | 309.87 | 29.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 169,423 | 182,435 | 7.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 34.5% | 31.3% | -9.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.6 | 14.9 | 28.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,837 | 2,735 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 29.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 72.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.0% | 85.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 156.6% change in JPM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 56.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 120.75 | 309.87 | 156.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 127,727 | 182,435 | 42.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.5% | 31.3% | 6.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.5 | 14.9 | 56.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,963 | 2,735 | 8.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 156.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 156.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 59.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 64.9% | 82.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JPM Return | 28% | -13% | 31% | 44% | 37% | -3% | 181% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -16% | 18% | 41% | 43% | -1% | 173% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JPM Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 75% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 43% | 55% | 63% | 70% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JPM Max Drawdown | -1% | -34% | -6% | -1% | -11% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -28% | -14% | -5% | -16% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BAC, MS, WFC, C, JPM. See JPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 448 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 297 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 263 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 234.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,535 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BAC, MS, WFC, C, JPM
In The Past
JPMorgan Chase's stock fell -40.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -40.6% loss requires a 68.5% gain to breakeven.
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About JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
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Here are a few brief analogies for JPMorgan Chase:
The **Amazon of financial services**
A **financial Walmart**
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- Retail Banking Services: Offers deposit, lending (mortgages, auto, credit card), and payment solutions for individual consumers and small businesses.
- Commercial Banking Services: Provides financial solutions, including lending, payments, investment banking, and asset management, to midsized companies, local governments, and nonprofit clients.
- Investment Banking & Advisory: Delivers corporate strategy and structure advisory, capital-raising services via equity and debt markets, and loan origination and syndication.
- Markets Services: Engages in trading cash and derivative instruments, offers risk management solutions, and provides prime brokerage services for institutional clients.
- Asset Management: Manages multi-asset investment solutions, including equities, fixed income, and alternatives, for institutional clients and retail investors.
- Wealth Management: Furnishes comprehensive financial planning, brokerage, trusts, loans, and investment management products for high-net-worth individuals.
- Treasury & Payment Services: Manages payments, cash flow, and cross-border financing for corporate and institutional clients.
- Securities Services: Provides custody, fund accounting and administration, and securities lending products for asset managers, insurance companies, and investment funds.
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The following are major suppliers for JPMorgan Chase (JPM):
- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Jamie Dimon has served as CEO of JPMorgan Chase since 2005 and Chairman since 2006. Prior to JPMorgan Chase, he began his professional career at American Express and was a key member of the team that launched Commercial Credit Company. He served as Chief Financial Officer and then President of Commercial Credit, which made numerous acquisitions and divestitures, including acquiring Primerica Corporation and The Travelers Corporation. Dimon served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Travelers from 1990 through 1998, concurrently serving as Chief Operating Officer of its Smith Barney Inc. subsidiary. He became Chief Executive Officer of Smith Barney in 1996 and then co-Chairman and co-Chief Executive Officer of the combined brokerage after the 1997 merger of Smith Barney and Salomon Brothers. In 1998, Dimon was named President of Citigroup Inc. In 2000, he was named Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Bank One, which he led until its merger with JPMorgan Chase in 2004.
Jeremy Barnum, Chief Financial Officer
Jeremy Barnum is the Chief Financial Officer for JPMorgan Chase & Co., appointed in May 2021. He is responsible for global financial operations, budgeting, forecasting, and investor relations. Since joining JPMorgan Chase in 1994, Barnum has held numerous leadership roles, including Head of Global Research for the Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB) and Chief Financial Officer of the CIB from 2013 to 2021. He briefly left JPMorgan in 2004 and worked for BlueMountain Capital as head of its London office before returning to JPMorgan in 2007.
Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO, Asset & Wealth Management
Mary Callahan Erdoes is the Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Asset Management business, overseeing a global leader in investment management and private banking. She joined J.P. Morgan in 1996 from Meredith, Martin & Kaye, a fixed income specialty advisory firm.
Jennifer Piepszak, Chief Operating Officer
Jennifer Piepszak serves as the Chief Operating Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. She has been with JPMorgan Chase for 28 years and previously served as the firm's Chief Financial Officer from May 2019. Prior to her CFO role, Piepszak spent seven years in Consumer & Community Banking (CCB), holding positions such as CEO of Card Services, CEO of Business Banking, and CFO for Mortgage Banking.
Troy Rohrbaugh, Co-CEO, Commercial & Investment Bank
Troy Rohrbaugh serves as Co-CEO of JPMorgan Chase's Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB), with a focus on markets and securities services. He has held various senior roles within the firm's markets business.
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The primary risks to JPMorgan Chase's business include broad economic and market downturns, stringent regulatory and legal oversight, and pervasive cybersecurity threats.
- Economic and Market Risks: JPMorgan Chase is significantly exposed to adverse economic conditions and market volatility. This includes potential negative impacts from factors such as increased inflation, higher interest rates, and overall economic downturns, which can lead to increased delinquencies and credit losses across its diverse lending portfolios, including consumer and commercial loans. Fluctuations in interest rates, credit spreads, and general market volatility can also materially affect the firm's investment and market-making positions, potentially reducing earnings and asset management fees.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks: Operating as a globally systemically important financial institution (G-SIFI), JPMorgan Chase faces extensive and evolving regulatory scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions. Changes in laws, rules, and regulations can significantly impact its operations, increase compliance costs, and constrain strategic initiatives. The firm is also subject to ongoing regulatory investigations and potential legal proceedings that could result in substantial penalties, operational restrictions, and reputational damage.
- Cybersecurity Threats and Operational/Technology Risks: JPMorgan Chase faces persistent and evolving cybersecurity threats, including data breaches and system failures. These incidents can disrupt operations, compromise sensitive customer data (as seen in past breaches affecting millions of records), damage the firm's reputation, and lead to significant financial losses. The increasing reliance on complex technology, including Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) architecture and third-party vendors, introduces additional operational vulnerabilities and potential systemic risks that could lead to widespread service disruptions.
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- Fintech and Neobanks: Digital-first financial technology companies and challenger banks are increasingly offering agile, user-friendly, and often lower-cost alternatives to traditional banking services across deposits, payments, lending, and investment products. These firms threaten JPMorgan Chase's market share, particularly in its Consumer & Community Banking and Commercial Banking segments, by attracting customers with superior digital experiences and specialized offerings.
- Big Tech in Financial Services: Companies such as Apple, Google, and Amazon are leveraging their immense user bases, technological platforms, and data capabilities to increasingly offer financial products and services directly to consumers (e.g., payments, credit cards, lending to small businesses). While often partnering with banks for regulatory compliance, Big Tech's growing involvement threatens JPMorgan Chase's direct customer relationships and its role as the primary interface for financial interactions, especially within its Consumer & Community Banking segment.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates across diverse financial services, addressing substantial markets globally and within the U.S. for its main products and services. The estimated addressable market sizes for these offerings in 2024 are as follows:
Consumer & Community Banking (CCB)
- Retail Banking: The global retail banking market was estimated at USD 2,039.25 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 3,373.43 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.8% from 2025 to 2033. In the U.S., the retail banking market generated an estimated revenue of USD 454.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 678.3 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.6% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate places the U.S. retail banking market size at USD 870 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 1,112.2 billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 4.17% from 2026 to 2031. North America held a significant share of 38.02% of the global retail banking market, which was valued at USD 4.26 trillion in 2025.
- Credit Card Services: The global credit cards market was valued at USD 1,282.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1,771.55 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 4.8% during the forecast period. Another report indicates the global credit card market size was USD 559.18 billion in 2023, with an expectation to reach USD 1,146.62 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 7.45%. The global credit card payments market size was estimated at USD 622.76 billion in 2024 and is predicted to surpass USD 1,433.49 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 8.69% from 2025 to 2034. North America is anticipated to maintain the largest share of the global credit card market.
- Mortgage Origination and Servicing (Residential Mortgages): Total U.S. mortgage originations across all loan purposes amounted to $1.82 trillion in 2024. The U.S. home mortgage market size was valued at approximately USD 180.91 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 501.67 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 12.00% between 2024 and 2032.
Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB)
- Investment Banking: The global investment banking market size was valued at USD 111.0 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 221.89 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 8.0% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another source reported the global investment banking market was valued at USD 184.91 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 334.27 billion by 2030, rising at a CAGR of 10.43%. For the U.S., the investment banking market was estimated at USD 45.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 112.0 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.6% from 2025 to 2035. North America is a dominant player in the global investment banking market, holding over 34% share in 2023.
- Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory: Global M&A deal value rose by 10% to USD 3.2 trillion in fiscal year 2024, with the U.S. accounting for 45% of the total deal volume.
- Debt Capital Markets (DCM): Global debt capital market activity reached USD 10.7 trillion in fiscal year 2024, marking a 20% increase year-over-year.
- Equity Capital Markets (ECM): Global equity capital market activity rose to USD 638 billion in fiscal year 2024, a 19% increase year-over-year, with the U.S. contributing 38% of total issuances.
Commercial Banking (CB)
- Commercial Banking Services: The global commercial banking market size was valued at USD 3.78 trillion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 12.67 trillion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 14.4% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another estimate places the global commercial banking market size at $3.9 trillion in 2024.
- Commercial Real Estate Banking Services: Total commercial real estate (CRE) mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. is estimated to have totaled USD 498 billion in 2024, a 16% increase from 2023. The total level of commercial mortgage debt in the U.S. has risen to $4.70 trillion as of Q1 2024.
Asset & Wealth Management (AWM)
- Asset Management: The global asset management industry's assets under management (AuM) grew to a record-breaking $128 trillion in 2024, a 12% increase from the previous year. North American managers reached $88.2 trillion in AUM at the end of 2024, representing 63% of all assets managed by the 500 largest firms globally. In terms of revenue, the global asset management market size was valued at USD 469 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% between 2025 and 2034.
- Wealth Management: The total financial wealth of all U.S. households exceeded $90 trillion by year-end 2024. Advice revenues in the U.S. wealth management industry grew to an estimated $260 billion in 2024. North America leads the wealth management platform market with a valuation of USD 7.5 billion in 2024.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives across its diversified financial services segments:
- Expansion of Consumer & Community Banking (CCB): JPMorgan Chase plans to expand its physical branch network, opening over 160 new branches in 2026 and renovating hundreds more as part of a multiyear strategy. This expansion is designed to capture greater market share in retail deposits, with an aim to reach a 15% national retail deposit share, up from 11.3% as of the end of 2024. The company also anticipates continued robust growth in new credit card accounts, targeting approximately 10 million new accounts per year, and higher revolving balances in its Card Services and Auto segments.
- Growth in Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB) Activities: The firm intends to increase its investment banking revenue by strategically focusing on key client segments, including private-equity clients, Silicon Valley startups, and midsize companies. Investment banking fees have already shown strong year-on-year growth, driven by an increase in underwriting and advisory activities. JPMorgan Chase has been actively hiring investment bankers since 2022 to support this growth.
- Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) Expansion: Revenue growth in this segment is anticipated from strong net client inflows, which have been positive across all channels, regions, and asset classes. The company has seen significant increases in assets under management and client assets, with a long-term target of $10 trillion in client assets. JPMorgan Chase is also making substantial investments in innovation within this segment, particularly in fast-growing areas such as active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
- Sustained Net Interest Income (NII) powered by a supportive macro environment: JPMorgan Chase forecasts continued growth in its net interest income. For 2026, the company expects Net Interest Income excluding Markets to be approximately $95 billion, and total Net Interest Income to be around $103 billion. This outlook is supported by a resilient consumer base and a generally favorable macroeconomic environment.
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Share Repurchases
- JPMorgan Chase authorized a new common share repurchase program of $50 billion, effective July 1, 2025.
- Annual share repurchases amounted to $31.591 billion in 2025 and $18.83 billion in 2024.
- A $30 billion share repurchase program was authorized, effective July 1, 2024.
Share Issuance
- The total number of outstanding shares generally declined, from 2.97 billion in 2021 to 2.782 billion in 2025, primarily due to share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2023, JPMorgan Chase acquired the substantial majority of assets and assumed deposits of First Republic Bank, an acquisition expected to generate over $500 million of incremental net income per year.
- The company made a total of 21 acquisitions, with peak activity including 5 acquisitions in 2021 and 3 in 2022, encompassing areas like fintech, wealth management, and strategic solutions.
- The Strategic Financing Solutions unit of JPMorgan Chase has deployed over $10 billion across 100 direct-lending transactions since 2021 and the firm announced plans in October 2025 to invest up to $10 billion directly into selected U.S. companies over the next decade, focusing on critical industries.
Capital Expenditures
- Technology spending, a significant portion of capital expenditures, was approximately $18 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to roughly $19.8 billion in 2026.
- The technology budget for 2024 was $17 billion.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on technology and AI, including investments in cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, data systems, and the development of new products, features, and customer platforms.
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 124.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 278.0 |
| Rev LTM | 85,027 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -20,787 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -19,945 |
| CFO LTM | -19,001 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -16,688 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -27.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -30.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -31.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -32.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 278.0 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 14.9 |
| P/CFO | -5.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.8% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 49.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 135.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 84.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking | 70,148 | 54,814 | 50,073 | 51,268 | 55,133 |
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 64,353 | 48,102 | 51,749 | 49,284 | 39,265 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 19,827 | 17,748 | 16,957 | 14,240 | 13,591 |
| Corporate | 8,038 | 80 | -3,483 | -1,176 | 1,211 |
| Reconciling Items | -4,262 | -3,582 | -3,655 | -2,978 | -3,065 |
| Commercial Banking | 11,533 | 10,008 | 9,313 | 9,264 | |
| Total | 158,104 | 128,695 | 121,649 | 119,951 | 115,399 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking | 21,232 | 14,916 | 20,930 | 8,217 | 16,541 |
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 20,272 | 14,925 | 21,134 | 17,094 | 11,954 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 5,227 | 4,365 | 4,737 | 2,992 | 2,867 |
| Corporate | 2,821 | -743 | -3,713 | -1,750 | 1,111 |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Commercial Banking | 4,213 | 5,246 | 2,578 | 3,958 | |
| Total | 49,552 | 37,676 | 48,334 | 29,131 | 36,431 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 1,638,493 | 1,334,296 | 1,259,896 | 1,095,926 | 914,705 |
| Corporate | 1,348,437 | 1,328,219 | 1,518,100 | 1,359,831 | 837,618 |
| Consumer & Community Banking | 642,951 | 514,085 | 500,370 | 496,705 | 541,367 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 245,512 | 232,037 | 234,425 | 203,384 | 173,175 |
| Commercial Banking | 257,106 | 230,776 | 228,911 | 220,514 | |
| Total | 3,875,393 | 3,665,743 | 3,743,567 | 3,384,757 | 2,687,379 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $309.87 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 847.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $298.03 | $300.15 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.1% | 21.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| Upside Capture | 73.07 | 112.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.8% | 58.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.58 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Up Beta | 1.39 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.16 | 0.84 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | 0.54 | 0.63 | 0.86 | 0.46 | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| Up Capture | 51% | 112% | 88% | 111% | 116% | 101% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 31 | 64 | 141 | 425 |
| Down Capture | 51% | 94% | 108% | 116% | 104% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 62 | 110 | 325 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 45.9% | 23.1% | 1.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 16.9% | 17.3% | 0.74 | 82.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 67.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 42.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -4.3% | 43.7% | 0.02 | 37.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 18.0% | 24.3% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.7% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 85.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 63.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 17.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 43.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 23.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 21.1% | 27.4% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 22.2% | 0.53 | 91.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 70.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | -6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 27.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 53.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.6% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/13/2026 | -4.2% | -6.7% | -4.2% |
| 10/14/2025 | -1.9% | -1.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 4/11/2025 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 14.5% |
| 1/15/2025 | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.7% |
| 10/11/2024 | 4.4% | 5.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/12/2024 | -1.2% | 1.2% | -0.8% |
| 4/12/2024 | -6.5% | -7.3% | 1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 19 |
| # Negative | 15 | 12 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 9.2% | 23.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -13.8% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 311.92 | 966 | 301,311 | 18,240,547 | Form |
| 2 | Bammann, Linda | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 297.94 | 9,500 | 2,830,472 | 24,493,217 | Form | |
| 3 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122025 | 267.44 | 5,201 | 1,390,972 | 61,456,017 | Form |
| 4 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052025 | 262.47 | 6,128 | 1,608,424 | 16,392,645 | Form |
| 5 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5202025 | 265.71 | 6,608 | 1,755,833 | 9,703,850 | Form |
JPM Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.85x is attractive. The analysis suggests a high probability (70%) of a favorable outcome, driven by a widening competitive moat and strong execution in high-margin businesses. While the raw skew is below 1.0x, the high likelihood of the bull case materializing makes the risk/reward profile compelling, leading to an Accumulate rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowJPMorgan is the largest U.S. bank with a saturated market position and projected terminal revenue growth tethered to GDP. Its investment case is defined by best-in-class profitability (20% ROTCE), massive scale, and capital efficiency, fitting the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype where margin defense and capital returns are the primary focus over hypergrowth.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on JPMorgan's successful and ongoing shift of its revenue mix toward higher-margin, less capital-intensive, fee-based businesses. The Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) and Payments divisions are growing faster than the core banking segments, driving superior and more durable profitability (ROTCE) while insulating the firm's earnings from pure interest rate cyclicality.
- Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) revenue grew 13% YoY in Q4 2025, with record AUM of $4.8 Trillion (+18% YoY).
- AWM division delivered a 44% ROE and a 38% pre-tax margin, significantly outperforming the Consumer & Community Banking segment's 25% ROE.
- Payments revenue grew 9% YoY in Q4 2025, highlighting durable growth in a key fee-generating business.
- The firm generated a best-in-class 20% Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) for the full year 2025.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the acknowledged competitive pressure from fintech rivals in the payments and credit card ecosystems. This structural threat could lead to persistent margin compression, eroding the profitability of the very segments central to the 'Alpha Driver' thesis and potentially slowing the firm's overall earnings growth trajectory.
- CFO Jeremy Barnum explicitly 'highlighted challenges in the card ecosystem amid fintech competition' in the Q4 2025 earnings discussion.
- The Payments division experienced 'deposit margin compression' in Q4 2025, which partially offset revenue growth from higher balances and fees.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) Revenue Growth YoY | > 10% | This is the primary engine of the 'Alpha Driver' thesis. Growth below this level would indicate the high-margin mix shift is stalling. |
| Payments Division Pre-Tax Margin | Stable to Increasing QoQ | Directly monitors the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. Any sustained compression in this metric would validate the bear case that fintech competition is eroding profitability. |
| Firm-wide Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) | Consistently > 17% | The ultimate measure of capital efficiency and profitability for a bank. A drop below this best-in-class threshold would challenge the stock's premium valuation. |
Fortress Balance Sheet vs. Emerging Credit & Margin Cracks
BULL VIEW
Best-in-class execution, share gains (Apple Card), and a stable ~$103B NII forecast will power through any cyclical softness, proving its durable compounding thesis.
CORE TENSION
Can JPM's scale and execution (Bull) overcome decelerating returns, rising credit provisions for new ventures like the Apple Card, and structural fintech competition (Bear)?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The $2.2B net reserve build for the Apple Card portfolio acquisition is a direct, quantifiable signal that management sees tangible credit risk ahead.
BEAR VIEW
A macro slowdown and fintech pressure will expose credit weaknesses and erode payment margins, causing its premium Return on Equity to mean-revert lower.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 23, 2026 | Company Update Event Watch: 2026 Expense Guidance and Net Interest Income (NII) forecast updates. Any revision to the ~$103B NII or expense outlook is critical. |
Mid-April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Watch: Net Charge-Offs in Wholesale (CRE) and Consumer (Card) segments. Watch for provisions for credit losses exceeding Q4 levels. |
Next 6 Months | Antitrust Litigation Update (Normandin v. JPMorgan) Watch: Any key court ruling or announcement of a formal investigation by the Department of Justice regarding prime rate fixing allegations. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-18 | Investor Day Timing Announcement Details: JPMorgan announced it would provide a 'Company Update' on February 23, 2026, setting expectations for a key strategic update. | Flat (0.47%) $308.84 -> $310.31 |
2025-10-14 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: JPM reported a strong beat with CIB revenue up 17% YoY and IB fees up 16%. Despite strong results, the stock pulled back amid broader market weakness. | Slight -1.91% pullback $306.58 -> $300.72 |
2025-11-19 | Affordable Housing Initiative Details: Announced over $40 million in new philanthropic funding to help increase housing supply, extending its commitment to affordable housing. | Modest 1.29% gain $298.06 -> $301.90 |
2025-12-11 | Executive Order on Proxy Advisors Details: An Executive Order was issued scrutinizing proxy advisors like ISS and Glass Lewis, a positive development for JPM which was planning its own AI-based solution. | Rose significantly by 2.34% $308.71 -> $315.95 |
2026-01-07 | Apple Card Acquisition & AI 'Proxy IQ' Announcement Details: Announced it will become the new issuer for the Apple Card, taking over from Goldman Sachs. Also announced a shift to an in-house AI platform for proxy voting. | Fell notably by -2.28% $334.61 -> $326.99 |
2026-01-13 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: JPM beat EPS and revenue estimates, but the stock fell on higher-than-expected 2026 expense guidance and a large $2.2B credit loss provision for the Apple Card portfolio. | Fell notably by -4.19% $324.49 -> $310.90 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The stock's volatility is spiking (3M at 27% vs 1Y at 26%), signaling rising near-term risk. This, combined with our calculated Bearish sentiment, makes this a 'Knife Catch' scenario, mandating a Conservative sizing despite the widening moat.
Diversification Alternatives
MS
INDUSTRYMorgan Stanley offers a purer play on the high-margin wealth and asset management theme, which is JPM's key growth driver, but with less exposure to consumer credit risk.
BAC
INDUSTRYWhile a lower-quality operator than JPM, Bank of America offers a cheaper valuation and potentially higher torque to a positive macro inflection, given its greater consumer sensitivity.
JPMorgan Chase is leveraging its 'fortress balance sheet' and scale to navigate interest rate uncertainty and potential credit normalization, while deploying a ~$20 billion technology budget to defend its market share against fintech rivals and drive operating efficiency.
Filter all news through the lens of Net Interest Income (NII) trajectory versus guidance and credit quality trends (net charge-offs).
NII guidance being raised; investment banking league table share gains; wealth management net new asset growth >$100B/quarter; announcements of technology-driven cost savings; card loan growth in the high single digits.
NII guidance being lowered; a sharp increase in credit loss provisions or net charge-offs above the guided ~3.4% in Card Services; significant market share loss in investment banking; regulatory actions limiting capital returns.
Minor fluctuations in quarterly trading revenue; typical M&A rumors; executive commentary on broad macroeconomic conditions without specific changes to guidance; announcements of new branch openings.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is focused on the trajectory of Net Interest Income (NII) in a shifting interest rate environment. Management's 2026 firmwide NII guidance of ~$104.5 billion, slightly upgraded in February 2026, is the key benchmark. Achieving or exceeding this target, driven by resilient loan growth and controlled deposit margin compression, would be a positive catalyst.
Consumer & Community Banking (CCB)
$77.6B TTM (41.7% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Checking/savings accounts, mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards (Chase Sapphire, Freedom) for consumers and small businesses.
Who Pays & How
Millions of U.S. consumers and small businesses pay through net interest margin on deposits and loans, as well as various service fees. Lock-in is created by the high friction of switching primary banking relationships (direct deposit, auto-pay) and integrated digital ecosystems (Chase Mobile App).
Competition
Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB)
$77.6B TTM (41.7% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
M&A advisory, debt/equity underwriting (IPOs), sales & trading services (FICC and Equities), and treasury & payments solutions for corporations and institutional investors.
Who Pays & How
Large corporations, governments, and institutional investors pay fees for capital raising and advisory services, and generate trading revenue through bid-ask spreads. The 'why' is JPM's #1 global investment banking fee share (8.4% in 2025) and deep, long-standing relationships with C-suite executives.
Competition
Asset & Wealth Management (AWM)
$26.0B TTM (14% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Investment management services for institutions and high-net-worth individuals, including portfolio management, brokerage, and private banking.
Who Pays & How
Institutions and wealthy individuals pay a percentage of their assets under management (AUM) for professional investment services and access to exclusive investment products. The firm's brand, track record, and integrated private banking services create a sticky client base.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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