Johnson Controls International (JCI)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $120.2 | Market Cap: $78.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Johnson Controls International (JCI)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $120.2Market Cap: $78.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
JCI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the 14.9% stock movement for Johnson Controls International (JCI) between July 31, 2025, and November 14, 2025:
1. Strong Q4 FY25 Earnings Beat and Optimistic FY26 Guidance. Johnson Controls reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26 for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $1.20. Revenue for the quarter also exceeded expectations, reaching $6.44 billion against an anticipated $6.31 billion. The company further bolstered investor confidence by initiating robust fiscal year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $4.55, which was higher than the consensus estimate of $4.43, implying over 20% year-over-year growth. The Q4 results also highlighted a 4% organic sales increase and a record $14.9 billion backlog, up 13% organically, indicating strong future revenue visibility.
2. Strategic Divestiture and Share Repurchase Program. On August 1, 2025, Johnson Controls completed the sale of its Residential and Light Commercial HVAC business to the Bosch Group. This transaction was valued at an enterprise value of $8.1 billion, yielding approximately $5.0 billion in net cash proceeds for JCI after tax and transaction-related expenses. The company stated that this move positions it as a "pure-play provider of innovative building solutions" aiming for faster growth and increased profitability. Consistent with its capital allocation strategy, Johnson Controls announced a $5.0 billion accelerated share repurchase program, with an initial delivery of 43.1 million shares in August, signaling a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JCI Return | 18% | 77% | -19% | -8% | 40% | 54% | 235% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 15% | -3% | 28% | 36% | 4% | 153% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JCI Win Rate | 75% | 92% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 68% | 42% | 50% | 62% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JCI Max Drawdown | -42% | -1% | -42% | -23% | -9% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -5% | -27% | -11% | -6% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HON, TT, EMR, CMI, LII. See JCI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JCI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 846 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 175 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 262 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1212 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HON, TT, EMR, CMI, LII
In The Past
Johnson Controls International's stock fell -43.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -43.1% loss requires a 75.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.1% | -14.1% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -9.1% | -9.1% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.8% | -4.8% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.3% | -6.3% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.1% | -14.1% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -9.1% | -9.1% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.8% | -4.8% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.3% | -6.3% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Johnson Controls International
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 306.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 75.3 |
| Rev LTM | 22,227 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,546 |
| FCF LTM | 2,637 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,028 |
| CFO LTM | 3,270 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,612 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 75.3 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 19.0 |
| P/E | 25.6 |
| P/CFO | 23.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 90.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 23.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 8.8% | 9.8% | |
| 7/29/2025 | -7.4% | -4.5% | -2.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.1% | 8.2% | 15.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | 11.3% | 15.4% | 4.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 8.8% | 13.8% | 11.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | -1.5% | -1.3% | 0.1% |
| 5/1/2024 | -7.1% | -0.9% | 10.0% |
| 12/12/2023 | -6.0% | -4.7% | 2.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -4.6% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 11.3% | 15.4% | 19.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -17.3% | -15.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1302024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12142023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11152022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | MANNING NATHAN D | VP and President, Americas | 9042025 | Sell | 105.06 | 1,422 | 149,395 | 14,651,552 | Form |
| 1 | MANNING NATHAN D | VP and President, Americas | 8042025 | Sell | 103.69 | 1,422 | 147,447 | 14,607,941 | Form |
| 2 | MANNING NATHAN D | VP and President, Americas | 7022025 | Sell | 104.56 | 1,022 | 106,860 | 14,874,754 | Form |
| 3 | RATHNINDE ANURUDDHA | VP and President, APAC | 6062025 | Sell | 103.13 | 15,000 | 1,546,950 | 4,390,687 | Form |
| 4 | MANNING NATHAN D | VP and President, Americas | 6022025 | Sell | 100.90 | 1,422 | 143,480 | 14,457,200 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
