Intel (INTC)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $36.45 | Market Cap: $164.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Intel (INTC)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $36.45Market Cap: $164.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 8.6 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 829x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.6% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% | ||
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 8.6 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 829x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
The search results provide information about Intel's stock performance and news in late 2025, specifically around December 2025. Several sources mention Intel's stock performance *in 2025*, including an "82% year-to-date gain" or "almost 90% over the past year". However, none of the results indicate a 49.4% specific movement for the period between August 31, 2025, and December 23, 2025. Some sources even provide current prices for December 2025, which would allow for calculating a movement within the period, but the requested 49.4% movement is not explicitly confirmed or explained for that specific, precise timeframe. Given the information, I can infer general reasons for Intel's positive stock performance in 2025 as mentioned in the search results, even if the exact 49.4% increase for the specified future period isn't directly observed. I will focus on the reasons for the general positive trend in 2025, as suggested by the search results. Here are the key points for Intel's stock movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today, reflecting the general positive sentiment and performance observed in late 2025: 1. Continued Policy and Financial Support from the U.S. Government. The U.S. government finalized an $8.9 billion investment in Intel in August 2025, taking an approximate 10% equity stake. This demonstrates Washington's long-term commitment to Intel, driven by a focus on reshoring advanced manufacturing and reducing reliance on foreign foundries, suggesting ongoing policy and financial backing for Intel to regain competitiveness.2. Strengthening Rumors of a Major Customer Win with Apple. Intel is rumored to be nearing a deal with Apple to produce chips for MacBooks and potentially certain iPhone models starting in 2028. This potential multi-billion-dollar revenue opportunity is seen as a de facto seal of approval from Apple and, coupled with technological progress, strengthens the case for a valuation re-rating of Intel's stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.5% change in INTC stock from 9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 29.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 9222025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.76 | 36.37 | 26.46% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53070.00 | 53439.00 | 0.70% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.37 | 3.07 | 29.76% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4369.00 | 4514.00 | -3.32% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.32% |
Market Drivers
9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 26.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.7% | 48.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.7% | 54.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 71.6% change in INTC stock from 6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 77.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 6232025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.19 | 36.37 | 71.64% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53044.00 | 53439.00 | 0.74% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.73 | 3.07 | 77.08% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4343.00 | 4514.00 | -3.94% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 71.37% |
Market Drivers
6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 71.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 35.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 19.7% | 38.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 86.3% change in INTC stock from 12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 98.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 12222024 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.52 | 36.37 | 86.32% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54247.00 | 53439.00 | -1.49% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.54 | 3.07 | 98.92% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4292.00 | 4514.00 | -5.17% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 85.82% |
Market Drivers
12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 86.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 46.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.8% | 46.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 44.6% change in INTC stock from 12/23/2022 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 10545.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12232022 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.16 | 36.37 | 44.57% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 69540.00 | 53439.00 | -23.15% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.13% | 0.37% | -98.06% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.79 | 829.16 | 10545.39% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4118.00 | 4514.00 | -9.62% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.23% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2023 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | -23.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 47.7% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 52.9% | 49.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTC Return | -15% | 6% | -47% | 95% | -60% | 84% | -30% |
| Peers Return | 77% | 57% | -41% | 116% | 54% | 79% | 879% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTC Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 57% | 42% | 65% | 55% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTC Max Drawdown | -25% | -2% | -50% | -5% | -62% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -13% | -49% | -3% | -8% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, MU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,127 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NVDA, AMD, MU, AMAT, GLSA
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -63.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/9/2021. A -63.3% loss requires a 172.6% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Intel is like the Ford Motor Company for computers; they make the 'engines' (CPUs) that power PCs and servers.
2. Intel is like Microsoft for computer hardware; they've long been the primary maker of the 'brains' (CPUs) for PCs and data centers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Processors (CPUs): Intel designs and manufactures a wide range of central processing units for personal computers, servers, and embedded devices.
- Graphics Processing Units (GPUs): Intel offers integrated graphics within its CPUs and a growing line of discrete GPUs (Intel Arc) for gaming, content creation, and professional applications.
- Chipsets: These silicon components complement Intel's CPUs by providing essential connectivity, I/O, and platform control functions for various computing platforms.
- Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs): Through its Altera acquisition, Intel provides customizable integrated circuits used in data centers, networking, and industrial applications.
- AI Accelerators: Intel's Habana Labs division develops specialized AI processors (e.g., Gaudi) designed for deep learning training and inference workloads in data centers.
- Networking & Connectivity Solutions: Intel produces Ethernet controllers, Wi-Fi modules, and other components for a broad range of computing and communication platforms.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel (symbol: INTC) primarily sells its products and technologies to other companies rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers are Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs), and Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) who integrate Intel's components into their own products or services.
Here are some of Intel's major customer companies:
- Dell Technologies (DELL)
- HP Inc. (HPQ)
- Lenovo Group Limited (HKG: 0992)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - primarily for its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing platform.
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - primarily for its Azure cloud computing platform and Surface devices.
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - primarily for its Google Cloud Platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
- Teradyne, Inc. (TER)
- Tokyo Electron Limited
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lip-Bu Tan, Chief Executive Officer
Lip-Bu Tan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Intel Corporation in March 2025. He previously served as CEO of Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021, where the company's stock price increased 44-fold under his leadership. Mr. Tan is also the Chairman of Walden International, a venture capital firm, and a Founding Managing Partner of Walden Catalyst Ventures and Celesta Capital, known for investing early in semiconductor startups. He received the 2022 Robert N. Noyce Award and was named one of Forbes' Top 50 Venture Capitalists.
David Zinsner, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
David Zinsner has served as Intel's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since January 2022. Prior to Intel, he was the Executive Vice President and CFO at Micron Technology Inc. His experience also includes serving as President and Chief Operating Officer at Affirmed Networks, and as Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO at Analog Devices and Intersil Corp. At Intersil, he was part of a management team that, in partnership with a private equity firm, acquired assets from Harris Corporation and subsequently took the company public in 2000. During his tenure at Analog Devices, Mr. Zinsner managed the company's financial operations, including its acquisition strategy, notably overseeing the $15 billion purchase of Linear Technology.
Michelle Johnston Holthaus, Chief Executive Officer, Intel Products
Michelle Johnston Holthaus is the CEO of Intel Products. She also served as an interim co-CEO with David Zinsner after Pat Gelsinger's retirement in December 2024. Ms. Holthaus has over 30 years of experience at Intel, with previous roles including Chief Revenue Officer, General Manager of the Sales and Marketing Group, and lead of global Client Computing Group sales.
Naga Chandrasekaran, Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer, and GM of Intel Foundry
Dr. Naga Chandrasekaran was appointed Chief Global Operations Officer, Executive Vice President, and General Manager of the Intel Foundry Manufacturing and Supply Chain organization in August 2024. He joined Intel from Micron Technology, where he spent over 20 years in various senior leadership roles, including overseeing global technology development and engineering efforts. At Intel, he is responsible for worldwide manufacturing operations, strategic planning for Intel Foundry, corporate quality assurance, and supply chain.
April Miller Boise, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
April Miller Boise was recruited as Intel's Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer in July 2022, overseeing the company's global legal, trade, and government affairs team. Before joining Intel, she served as Executive Vice President and CLO at power company Eaton since 2020, and prior to that, she was Senior Vice President, CLO, and Corporate Secretary for Meritor. Ms. Miller Boise has over 25 years of experience across global markets and various industries and is a board member of Trane Technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Intel's business:- Manufacturing and Technological Challenges, including Competition in Advanced Process Nodes and AI Accelerators: Intel faces significant hurdles in its manufacturing capabilities, including delays in its process technology roadmap (e.g., 18A node) and lower-than-anticipated manufacturing yields. The company is struggling to compete with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in advanced manufacturing, which is considered a generation or two ahead. Intel's Foundry Services business has incurred substantial operating losses, raising concerns about its viability and ability to compete with established foundries. Furthermore, Intel has fallen behind in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator market, with rivals like Nvidia and AMD holding a significant lead and Intel's own Gaudi line facing challenges with immature software and missed sales targets.
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Intel has experienced a decline in market share in its core CPU market, notably losing ground to AMD. The company has also struggled to capitalize on new technologies and platform shifts, having missed opportunities in the mobile market and losing Apple's Macs as a key customer. The competitive landscape in the semiconductor industry remains fierce across various segments, impacting Intel's product mix and margins.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Geopolitical Risks: Intel is exposed to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, including persistent inflation and potential economic slowdowns, which could negatively impact demand for its products. Geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning US-China trade relations and supply chain dependencies, present additional risks to Intel's revenue streams and strategic operations, despite the company's efforts to diversify its supply chain and invest in domestic and regional manufacturing.
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The increasing adoption and performance of ARM-based CPUs in the personal computing market. Apple's successful transition to its M-series ARM chips for Macs has demonstrated competitive performance and power efficiency against Intel's x86 processors. This has led to Microsoft's significant investment and promotion of Windows on ARM, with new Snapdragon X Elite-powered Copilot+ PCs from major vendors now entering the market, directly threatening Intel's historical dominance in the PC CPU segment.
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The growing development and deployment of ARM-based CPUs and custom silicon by large cloud providers and enterprises in the data center market. Hyperscalers such as Amazon Web Services (Graviton processors), Google Cloud (Tensor Processing Units - TPUs), and Microsoft Azure (Maia AI accelerators) are increasingly designing and deploying their own specialized silicon or utilizing ARM-based alternatives for specific workloads. This challenges Intel's long-standing market leadership in the lucrative data center CPU segment by offering alternative, often more power-efficient or workload-optimized, solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel (symbol: INTC) operates in several significant addressable markets for its main products and services. The market sizes for these key areas are outlined below:
- Overall Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM): Intel's total serviceable addressable market (SAM) is predicted by IDC to grow at a 7.2% compound annual rate, reaching an estimated $500 billion globally by 2027.
- Central Processing Units (CPUs): The global PC processor market was valued at approximately $120.17 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly $170.90 billion by 2032. Another estimate indicates the global computer CPU market size was approximately $70 billion in 2023 and is forecasted to reach around $120 billion by 2032.
- Data Center Products: The global data center market was valued at $242.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $584.86 billion by 2032. Separately, data center semiconductor revenue totaled $112 billion globally in 2024, up from $64.8 billion in 2023.
- AI Accelerators: The global AI accelerator market size was estimated at $25.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $256.84 billion by 2033. Another report valued the global AI accelerator market at $26.03 billion in 2024, with projections to grow to $219.63 billion by 2032.
- Automotive Semiconductors: The global automotive semiconductor market is expected to reach $78 billion in 2025. Other estimates state the market was valued at $71.97 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $123.04 billion by 2032.
- Foundry Services: The global semiconductor foundry market was valued at $148.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $259.72 billion by 2034. Another source reported the global foundry services market revenues totaled $116.9 billion in 2024 and are expected to expand to $181.8 billion by 2032.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel (INTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives, primarily centered on artificial intelligence (AI), its foundry business, and a robust product roadmap across its core computing segments.
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Growth in AI-Driven Demand Across Client Computing and Data Center Segments: Intel is heavily investing in and seeing significant traction from AI integration across its product lines. The company anticipates shipping approximately 40 million AI PCs in 2024 alone, with over 230 designs featuring its Core Ultra processors and upcoming Lunar Lake and Panther Lake processors. In the data center, new products like Xeon 6 (Granite Rapids) and Xeon 6+ (Clearwater Forest) are positioned as the CPU choice for AI head nodes, boosting momentum in enterprises upgrading infrastructure for AI workloads. Intel's broader AI strategy involves adapting its product portfolio for new and emerging AI workloads, including its Gaudi 3 AI accelerator chips, which are expected to enhance its competitive position.
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Expansion and Success of Intel Foundry Services (IFS): Intel Foundry Services is a critical long-term growth driver, with analysts projecting its revenue to reach $25-30 billion by 2028. IFS aims to achieve break-even operating margins by 2027 and become the world's second-largest foundry by 2030. The company expects to generate "meaningful" revenue from external contract chip manufacturing starting in 2027, with ongoing talks with potential customers to generate revenue in 2026. This growth is underpinned by the ramp-up of advanced process technologies like Intel 18A and Intel 14A, with 18A expected to reach competitive yields by Q4 2027.
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New Product Roadmap Execution and Market Share Gains in Core CPU Businesses: Intel is focused on reclaiming market share in both its Client Computing Group (CCG) and Data Center and AI (DCAI) segments through new product launches. In CCG, robust PC demand, Windows 11 refresh cycles, and the adoption of AI PC processors like Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake, Panther Lake (expected late 2025/early 2026), and Nova Lake (2026) are expected to drive growth. For the data center, the successful launch and adoption of Xeon 6 processors (Granite Rapids) and Xeon 6+ (Clearwater Forest) are crucial for improving performance and efficiency against competitors. Intel is also reintroducing simultaneous multithreading (SMT) in future chip designs to close performance gaps.
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Improved Profitability and Gross Margins Driven by New Product Strategy: Intel has shifted its product strategy to prioritize higher gross margins. The company's Products CEO revealed a focus on eliminating R&D on any product that doesn't bring in more than 50% gross margins, indicating that next-gen CPUs like Panther Lake and Nova Lake will feature better gross margins. This strategic emphasis on financially viable products, coupled with cost controls and stronger pricing, is expected to lead to a significant gross margin recovery, which will support sustainable revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Intel had share repurchases of $2.415 billion in 2021.
- As of September 27, 2025, Intel was authorized to repurchase up to $110.0 billion, with $7.24 billion remaining available.
- Intel expects future stock repurchases to be curtailed as the company focuses on significant capital investments and does not anticipate paying dividends or making stock repurchases until cash flows improve.
Share Issuance
- Intel's shares outstanding increased by 0.81% in 2022, 2.16% in 2023, and 1.61% in 2024.
- Intel's net common equity issued/repurchased amounted to $2.883 billion in 2022, $5.512 billion in 2023, and $13.701 billion in 2024.
- Since 2021, Intel has diluted shareholder positions.
Inbound Investments
- In 2025, the U.S. government converted $8.9 billion in CHIPS Act funding into a near 10% equity stake in Intel, including $5.7 billion in cash from grants and $3.2 billion from the Secure Enclave program. The company was also awarded an additional $11 billion in favorable loans.
- Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel in September 2025, as part of a partnership to jointly develop data-center and personal-computing CPUs and for AI chip production.
- SoftBank's Vision Fund provided a $2 billion capital injection in 2025, specifically targeting Intel's data center and foundry divisions.
Outbound Investments
- Intel completed four acquisitions in 2021 and eight acquisitions in 2022.
- In Q1 2022, Intel agreed to acquire Tower Semiconductor for approximately $5.4 billion to accelerate its global end-to-end systems foundry business.
- Intel divested its NAND memory business to SK Hynix for $9.0 billion in cash, with the first closing in 2021 and the second expected in March 2025. Intel also sold an equity stake in its AI software start-up, Articul8 AI, to raise capital for manufacturing goals in January 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Intel's capital expenditures were $20.329 billion in 2021, $24.844 billion in 2022, $25.75 billion in 2023, and $23.944 billion in 2024.
- The expected gross capital expenditure for 2025 is $18 billion, with net capital expenditures projected to be between $8 billion and $11 billion. Lower capital expenditures are anticipated for 2026.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes strengthening engineering capabilities, enhancing Intel's AI strategy through integrated solutions, and expanding U.S. manufacturing capacity to achieve process technology leadership by 2025 with Intel 18A and an extended roadmap to Intel 14A.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Intel Earnings Notes | |||
| Intel Earnings Notes | |||
| Intel Stock Slides 12% With A 5-Day Losing Spree | Notification | ||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Intel Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| A Decade of Rewards: $92 Bil From Intel Stock | |||
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Intel Stock | |||
| Does Intel Stock Lead the Pack? | |||
| How Low Can Intel Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Why Intel Stock May Drop Soon | |||
| Intel Stock Rockets 19% With 5-Day Winning Streak | Notification | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Intel Stock Plummets -12% With 5-Day Losing Streak | December 18th, 2025 | ||
| Intel Stock To $26? | December 17th, 2025 | ||
| Intel Stock Pays Out $92 Bil – Investors Take Note | December 13th, 2025 | ||
| What Could Send Intel Stock Soaring | December 11th, 2025 | ||
| Does Intel Stock Lead the Pack? | December 5th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to INTC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 16.1% | 16.1% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.7% | 16.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.8% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 08312024 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.7% | 10.5% | -17.7% |
| 04302022 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -32.1% | -25.6% | -41.5% |
| 10312020 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.7% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
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Peer Comparisons for Intel
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 199.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 330.3 |
| Rev LTM | 48,862 |
| Op Inc LTM | 13,082 |
| FCF LTM | 9,134 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,026 |
| CFO LTM | 18,352 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,095 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 27.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 330.3 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| P/EBIT | 47.9 |
| P/E | 57.5 |
| P/CFO | 36.4 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 50.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 68.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 346.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 48.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 255.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 29,258 | 31,773 | 41,067 | 40,057 | 37,146 |
| Intel Foundry | 18,910 | 469 | 786 | ||
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 12,635 | 19,445 | 22,691 | ||
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 5,774 | 8,409 | 7,976 | ||
| All Other | 5,608 | 1,089 | 5,019 | 522 | 289 |
| Corporate unallocated | 0 | ||||
| Intersegment eliminations | -17,957 | ||||
| Mobileye | 1,869 | 1,386 | |||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics | 774 | ||||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics intersegment revenue | -675 | ||||
| Data Center Group | 26,103 | 23,481 | |||
| Internet of Things Group | 3,974 | 4,700 | |||
| Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group | 5,358 | 4,362 | |||
| Programmable Solutions Group | 1,853 | 1,987 | |||
| Total | 54,228 | 63,054 | 79,024 | 77,867 | 71,965 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 9,513 | 5,569 | 15,704 | 15,129 | 15,202 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 1,620 | 1,300 | 8,439 | ||
| All Other | 1,079 | -5,977 | -5,722 | -3,381 | -3,878 |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 204 | 1,033 | 1,711 | ||
| Intersegment eliminations | -203 | ||||
| Corporate unallocated | -5,165 | ||||
| Intel Foundry | -6,955 | -281 | -23 | ||
| Mobileye | 690 | 554 | |||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics | -1,207 | ||||
| Data Center Group | 10,571 | 10,227 | |||
| Internet of Things Group | 738 | 1,342 | |||
| Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group | 361 | -1,176 | |||
| Programmable Solutions Group | 260 | 318 | |||
| Total | 93 | 2,334 | 19,456 | 23,678 | 22,035 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $36.37 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 164.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $38.03 | $27.02 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.4% | 34.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 56.6% | 64.1% |
| Downside Capture | 186.80 | 143.31 |
| Upside Capture | 278.63 | 183.46 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 48.3% | 47.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.52 | 2.29 | 2.10 | 1.91 | 1.51 | 1.62 |
| Up Beta | 1.27 | 0.64 | 1.13 | 1.74 | 1.63 | 1.62 |
| Down Beta | 2.81 | 1.75 | 2.36 | 2.14 | 1.28 | 1.46 |
| Up Capture | 215% | 365% | 390% | 325% | 254% | 500% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 23 | 32 | 66 | 115 | 378 |
| Down Capture | 300% | 254% | 144% | 124% | 123% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 18 | 30 | 58 | 130 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of INTC With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 77.9% | 21.7% | 14.7% | 67.3% | 6.8% | -0.5% | -16.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 64.0% | 27.8% | 19.7% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.6% | 35.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.14 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 2.54 | 0.23 | -0.18 | -0.25 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 47.6% | 47.5% | 3.9% | 17.5% | 31.3% | 24.1% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of INTC With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -4.4% | 19.4% | 15.0% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 35.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 46.3% | 24.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.06 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.63 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 54.7% | 52.7% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 32.5% | 21.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of INTC With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 2.9% | 22.4% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 69.9% |
| Annualized Volatility | 40.2% | 24.2% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.21 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.84 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 62.1% | 59.2% | 5.9% | 20.3% | 37.9% | 17.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -12.1% |
| 1/25/2024 | -11.9% | -12.5% | -13.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 7.2% | 5.0% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.8% | -9.3% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 10.7% | 21.9% | 36.0% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1262024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1272022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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