Expedia (EXPE)
Market Price (12/3/2025): $263.77 | Market Cap: $32.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Expedia (EXPE)
Market Price (12/3/2025): $263.77Market Cap: $32.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXPE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: Expedia reported a significant 23% increase in adjusted earnings per share and a 9% rise in revenue year-over-year for the third quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst estimates.
2. Robust Bookings Growth and Raised Guidance: The company experienced a 12% increase in total gross bookings in Q3 2025, largely propelled by a 26% growth in its Business-to-Business (B2B) segment. This strong performance led Expedia to raise its full-year 2025 guidance for both gross bookings and revenue growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXPE Return | 23% | 36% | -52% | 73% | 23% | 43% | 147% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 20% | -36% | 55% | 40% | 9% | 106% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXPE Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 55% | 37% | 60% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXPE Max Drawdown | -58% | -7% | -54% | 0% | -28% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -8% | -42% | -6% | -16% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, BKNG, EBAY, TRIP, TZOO. See EXPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/2/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 968 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 460 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 479.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1874 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GOOGL, BKNG, EBAY, TRIP, TZOO
In The Past
Expedia's stock fell -60.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -60.9% loss requires a 155.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXPE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | EXPE | Expedia | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -8.1% | 15.4% | -11.7% |
| 03312020 | EXPE | Expedia | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 63.1% | 205.9% | -14.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | EXPE | Expedia | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -8.1% | 15.4% | -11.7% |
| 03312020 | EXPE | Expedia | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 63.1% | 205.9% | -14.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Expedia
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 173.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 35.4 |
| Rev LTM | 12,420 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,108 |
| FCF LTM | 2,204 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,015 |
| CFO LTM | 2,843 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,650 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 35.4 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 14.5 |
| P/E | 21.4 |
| P/CFO | 13.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 122.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 59.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-to-customer (B2C) | 9,113 | 8,741 | 6,821 | 3,993 | 8,808 |
| Business-to-business (B2B) | 3,388 | 2,546 | 1,460 | 942 | 2,579 |
| trivago | 525 | 561 | 423 | 280 | 938 |
| Corporate & Eliminations | -187 | -181 | -106 | -16 | -258 |
| Total | 12,839 | 11,667 | 8,598 | 5,199 | 12,067 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-to-customer (B2C) | 1,810 | 1,617 | 1,277 | -285 | 1,601 |
| Business-to-business (B2B) | 681 | 518 | 8 | -321 | 323 |
| trivago | 51 | 105 | 29 | -26 | 74 |
| Corporate & Eliminations | -1,509 | -1,155 | -1,128 | -2,087 | -1,095 |
| Total | 1,033 | 1,085 | 186 | -2,719 | 903 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
