Tearsheet

Investment Highlights


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.4%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 13%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.4%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

DOW Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DOW Return8%7%-7%15%-23%-42%-48%
Peers Return16%25%-19%14%-13%-26%-14%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DOW Win Rate67%42%58%42%42%11% 
Peers Win Rate67%58%45%43%47%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DOW Max Drawdown-59%-6%-21%-2%-25%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-5%-36%-10%-27%-35% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APD, DD, EMN, CE, HUN. See DOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/16/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventDOWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven148.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven247 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven621 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven653.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1815 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Dow's stock fell -38.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -38.5% loss requires a 62.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than Dow (DOW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.5%-3.5%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.7%-11.7%-11.7%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.7%6.7%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.8%15.8%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-18.1%-18.1%-19.6%
DOW_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022DOWDowDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.1%23.8%-0.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.5%-3.5%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.7%-11.7%-11.7%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.7%6.7%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.8%15.8%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-18.1%-18.1%-19.6%
DOW_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022DOWDowDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.1%23.8%-0.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dow

Financials

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
Mkt Price21.90253.1878.1360.1639.988.4050.07
Mkt Cap15.556.432.76.94.41.411.2
Rev LTM41,81912,02112,6079,2869,9395,86010,980
Op Inc LTM7082,8912,0251,33793251,134
FCF LTM-1,740-4,3331,108406632134270
FCF 3Y Avg1,192-2,336693453947152573
CFO LTM1,2353,3582,0641,0021,0202991,128
CFO 3Y Avg3,9163,3062,0131,1471,4403621,726

Growth & Margins

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
Rev Chg LTM-2.8%-1.1%4.6%1.5%-5.8%-1.6%-1.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.2%2.3%-1.0%-5.1%1.4%-11.6%-3.1%
Rev Chg Q-7.4%-0.5%2.7%-3.2%-4.5%-7.4%-3.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.9%-0.1%0.7%-0.8%-1.2%-1.9%-1.0%
Op Mgn LTM1.7%24.1%16.1%14.4%9.4%0.1%11.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.1%22.4%15.1%12.7%9.9%1.8%11.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-0.5%0.3%-0.7%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM3.0%27.9%16.4%10.8%10.3%5.1%10.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%26.6%16.3%12.2%14.0%5.8%13.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.2%-36.0%8.8%4.4%6.4%2.3%3.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.4%-19.3%5.5%4.8%9.2%2.4%3.6%

Valuation

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
Mkt Cap15.556.432.76.94.41.411.2
P/S0.44.72.60.70.40.20.6
P/EBIT44.427.038.85.7-8.4-18.416.3
P/E-15.836.8-168.78.3-2.7-4.3-3.5
P/CFO12.616.815.96.94.34.89.7
Total Yield6.4%5.5%1.4%14.8%-33.4%-11.2%3.5%
Dividend Yield12.7%2.8%2.0%2.8%3.6%12.0%3.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.6%-3.8%2.3%4.5%8.9%4.8%3.4%
D/E1.20.30.20.73.01.71.0
Net D/E1.00.30.20.72.81.40.8

Returns

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
1M Rtn-10.5%-10.6%1.2%-8.8%-12.0%-22.9%-10.6%
3M Rtn-21.9%-13.2%5.5%-22.1%-31.6%-23.9%-22.0%
6M Rtn-19.1%-2.4%31.4%-19.8%-0.2%-32.6%-10.8%
12M Rtn-55.5%-20.5%-6.5%-42.4%-70.2%-61.6%-48.9%
3Y Rtn-42.2%15.0%55.9%-8.9%-54.2%-62.8%-25.5%
1M Excs Rtn-11.2%-12.7%1.3%-9.3%-11.8%-19.0%-11.5%
3M Excs Rtn-26.9%-19.0%-1.3%-26.9%-35.5%-29.3%-26.9%
6M Excs Rtn-42.8%-27.5%7.7%-45.5%-19.0%-57.3%-35.1%
12M Excs Rtn-69.1%-32.1%-21.3%-56.4%-83.4%-75.0%-62.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-125.2%-66.6%-24.5%-91.4%-138.4%-146.8%-108.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging & Specialty Plastics23,14929,26028,12818,30120,245
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure12,53816,60616,85112,02113,440
Performance Materials & Coatings8,49710,7649,6727,9518,923
Corporate438272317269343
Total44,62256,90254,96838,54242,951


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging & Specialty Plastics28,69230,01730,55630,06929,522
Performance Materials & Coatings12,08013,02813,81013,91514,059
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure11,99312,88313,75012,22011,753
Corporate5,2024,6754,8745,2665,190
Total57,96760,60362,99061,47060,524


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity28,974,439
Short Interest: % Change Since 91520253.0%
Average Daily Volume13,760,841
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.11
Basic Shares Quantity709,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/24/2025-17.5%-21.2%-22.0%
4/24/20252.6%5.5%-1.1%
1/30/2025-6.1%-7.6%-5.4%
10/24/2024-1.0%-4.2%-13.0%
7/25/2024-0.9%2.2%-1.4%
4/25/2024-0.9%0.4%-0.1%
1/25/20243.5%1.0%6.2%
10/24/20232.1%0.2%7.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111313
# Negative131111
Median Positive2.6%3.6%6.2%
Median Negative-2.1%-4.2%-3.2%
Max Positive5.3%8.0%14.1%
Max Negative-17.5%-21.2%-22.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023131202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022201202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221021202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022722202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022422202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211022202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Dial Debra L. 2112025Buy38.8167526,197104,787Form
1Banister Gaurdie E. JR. 12172024Buy40.877,339299,932446,445Form
2Fitterling James RChair and CEO12162024Buy41.5214,200589,57410,277,729Form
3DAVIS RICHARD K 12162024Buy41.456,025249,7301,783,385Form