Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
  Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 10%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 144x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.3%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 10%
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 144x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.3%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

DOW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DOW Return8%7%-7%15%-23%-37%-40%
Peers Return16%25%-19%14%-13%-27%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DOW Win Rate67%42%58%42%42%20% 
Peers Win Rate67%58%45%43%47%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DOW Max Drawdown-59%-6%-21%-2%-25%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-5%-36%-10%-27%-35% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APD, DD, EMN, CE, HUN. See DOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDOWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven148.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven247 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven621 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven653.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1815 days1480 days

Compare to APD, DD, EMN, CE, HUN


In The Past

Dow's stock fell -38.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -38.5% loss requires a 62.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dow (DOW)

Better Bets than Dow (DOW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.6%-0.6%-2.0%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-2.9%-2.9%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
DOW_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022DOWDowDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.1%23.8%-0.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.6%-0.6%-2.0%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-2.9%-2.9%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
DOW_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022DOWDowDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.1%23.8%-0.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dow

Financials

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
Mkt Price-------
Mkt Cap17.054.034.26.84.21.411.9
Rev LTM40,91312,02112,6079,2869,9395,86010,980
Op Inc LTM4722,8912,0251,33793251,134
FCF LTM-1,120-4,3331,108406632134270
FCF 3Y Avg903-2,336693453947152573
CFO LTM1,5623,3582,0641,0021,0202991,291
CFO 3Y Avg3,6453,3062,0131,1471,4403621,726

Growth & Margins

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
Rev Chg LTM-5.3%-1.1%4.6%1.5%-5.8%-1.6%-1.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.3%2.3%-1.0%-5.1%1.4%-11.6%-3.1%
Rev Chg Q-8.3%-0.5%2.7%-3.2%-4.5%-7.4%-3.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.2%-0.1%0.7%-0.8%-1.2%-1.9%-1.0%
Op Mgn LTM1.2%24.1%16.1%14.4%9.4%0.1%11.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%22.4%15.1%12.7%9.9%1.8%11.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.5%0.3%-0.7%-0.5%-0.6%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM3.8%27.9%16.4%10.8%10.3%5.1%10.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.3%26.6%16.3%12.2%14.0%5.8%13.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.7%-36.0%8.8%4.4%6.4%2.3%3.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.9%-19.3%5.5%4.8%9.2%2.4%3.6%

Valuation

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
Mkt Cap17.054.034.26.84.21.411.9
P/S0.44.52.70.70.40.20.6
P/EBIT143.925.940.55.6-8.0-18.115.7
P/E-15.035.3-176.38.2-2.6-4.2-3.4
P/CFO10.916.116.66.84.14.88.8
Total Yield3.5%5.7%1.4%14.9%-34.7%-11.4%2.4%
Dividend Yield10.2%2.9%1.9%2.8%3.8%12.2%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.2%-3.8%2.3%4.5%8.9%4.8%3.4%
D/E1.20.30.20.73.21.71.0
Net D/E0.90.30.20.72.91.40.8

Returns

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
12M Rtn-------
3Y Rtn-------
1M Excs Rtn-------
3M Excs Rtn-------
6M Excs Rtn-------
12M Excs Rtn-------
3Y Excs Rtn-------

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging & Specialty Plastics23,14929,26028,12818,30120,245
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure12,53816,60616,85112,02113,440
Performance Materials & Coatings8,49710,7649,6727,9518,923
Corporate438272317269343
Total44,62256,90254,96838,54242,951


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging & Specialty Plastics28,69230,01730,55630,06929,522
Performance Materials & Coatings12,08013,02813,81013,91514,059
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure11,99312,88313,75012,22011,753
Corporate5,2024,6754,8745,2665,190
Total57,96760,60362,99061,47060,524


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity30,143,511
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020254.0%
Average Daily Volume13,144,206
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.29
Basic Shares Quantity711,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023131202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022201202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221021202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022722202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022422202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Dial Debra L. 2112025Buy38.8167526,197104,787Form
1Banister Gaurdie E. JR. 12172024Buy40.877,339299,932446,445Form
2Fitterling James RChair and CEO12162024Buy41.5214,200589,57410,277,729Form
3DAVIS RICHARD K 12162024Buy41.456,025249,7301,783,385Form