Tearsheet

Carvana (CVNA)


Market Price (10/27/2025): $351.5 | Market Cap: $47.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Carvana (CVNA)


Market Price (10/27/2025): $351.5
Market Cap: $47.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 66x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 84x
1   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
1 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 66x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 84x
2 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CVNA Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CVNA Return160%-3%-98%1017%284%73%282%
Peers Return31%48%-11%29%16%1%161%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CVNA Win Rate67%50%17%67%75%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%67%43%50%62%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CVNA Max Drawdown-68%-15%-98%-7%-23%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-4%-30%-5%-11%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORLY, AZO, LAD, AN, KMX. See CVNA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCVNAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-99.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven9848.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven947 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-73.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven275.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven77 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-57.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven130 days120 days

Compare to ORLY, AZO, LAD, AN, KMX


In The Past

Carvana's stock fell -99.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/10/2021. A -99.0% loss requires a 9848.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carvana (CVNA)

Better Bets than Carvana (CVNA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CVNA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.6%-17.6%-22.1%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.2%-14.2%-14.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-9.0%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
13.2%13.2%-11.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.6%-17.6%-22.1%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.2%-14.2%-14.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-9.0%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
13.2%13.2%-11.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Carvana

Financials

CVNAORLYAZOLADANKMXMedian
NameCarvana O'Reilly.AutoZone Lithia M.AutoNati.CarMax  
Mkt Price351.2097.273,805.56331.60200.2144.26265.91
Mkt Cap47.683.163.78.47.56.628.0
Rev LTM16,27417,12218,90137,61127,91526,36822,635
Op Inc LTM1,5023,2913,7111,5481,284-2341,525
FCF LTM6151,7722,002-42-178685650
FCF 3Y Avg2532,1332,093-28057517385
CFO LTM7242,9083,2352951111,208966
CFO 3Y Avg3823,1173,11331408991699

Growth & Margins

CVNAORLYAZOLADANKMXMedian
NameCarvana O'Reilly.AutoZone Lithia M.AutoNati.CarMax  
Rev Chg LTM39.5%5.1%5.2%8.4%6.1%1.8%5.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.4%7.6%6.1%11.0%1.3%-7.4%6.2%
Rev Chg Q41.9%5.9%5.4%4.9%6.9%-6.0%5.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%1.5%1.2%1.2%1.6%-1.6%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM9.2%19.2%19.6%4.1%4.6%-0.9%6.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.9%19.7%20.0%4.7%5.2%-1.0%4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.8%0.0%-0.4%-0.1%-0.0%-0.3%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.4%17.0%17.1%0.8%0.4%4.6%4.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.7%19.3%17.3%0.0%1.5%3.8%3.2%
FCF/Rev LTM3.8%10.3%10.6%-0.1%-0.6%2.6%3.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.7%13.3%11.7%-0.9%0.2%2.0%1.8%

Valuation

CVNAORLYAZOLADANKMXMedian
NameCarvana O'Reilly.AutoZone Lithia M.AutoNati.CarMax  
Mkt Cap47.683.163.78.47.56.628.0
P/S2.94.93.40.20.30.31.6
P/EBIT30.225.117.14.45.64.211.4
P/E84.534.324.99.311.412.718.8
P/CFO65.728.619.728.367.75.528.5
Total Yield1.2%2.9%4.0%11.5%8.8%7.9%6.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.1%3.4%4.0%-3.4%1.1%4.7%2.2%
D/E0.10.10.21.81.32.90.7
Net D/E0.10.10.21.71.32.80.7

Returns

CVNAORLYAZOLADANKMXMedian
NameCarvana O'Reilly.AutoZone Lithia M.AutoNati.CarMax  
1M Rtn-4.9%-8.3%-9.3%4.0%-8.0%-1.3%-6.5%
3M Rtn5.7%-0.4%-0.4%6.2%-1.5%-27.1%-0.4%
6M Rtn48.1%8.3%5.4%13.6%14.3%-31.9%11.0%
12M Rtn73.4%22.1%21.5%0.2%28.5%-38.5%21.8%
3Y Rtn2,318.7%79.4%50.9%64.3%90.3%-28.7%71.9%
1M Excs Rtn-8.3%-9.8%-10.8%1.9%-10.2%-5.8%-9.0%
3M Excs Rtn-1.9%-6.4%-6.1%1.9%-4.3%-32.8%-5.2%
6M Excs Rtn25.2%-14.6%-17.5%-9.3%-8.6%-54.9%-11.9%
12M Excs Rtn61.9%5.0%3.9%-6.4%7.7%-54.2%4.4%
3Y Excs Rtn2,159.1%14.0%-17.6%-8.9%21.2%-106.8%2.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment10,77113,604   
Other sales and revenues  1,043401252
Retail vehicle sales, net  9,8514,7413,421
Wholesale sales and revenues  1,920445268
Total10,77113,60412,8145,5873,940


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,110,330
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-15.1%
Average Daily Volume2,488,395
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.06
Basic Shares Quantity135,414,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/202517.0%6.4%13.1%
5/7/202510.2%17.9%31.8%
2/19/2025-12.1%-17.5%-34.2%
10/30/202419.3%15.3%25.6%
7/31/202410.0%-3.4%12.6%
2/22/202432.1%44.9%64.0%
11/2/20237.9%1.7%33.9%
7/19/202340.2%10.8%-4.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151314
# Negative8109
Median Positive19.3%11.0%26.4%
Median Negative-9.8%-5.5%-12.5%
Max Positive40.2%66.1%108.3%
Max Negative-39.0%-30.4%-50.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023719202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0GARCIA ERNEST C. IIIChief Executive Officer9292025Sell361.2225090,305143,111,752Form
1GARCIA ERNEST C. IIIChief Executive Officer9292025Sell368.6525092,162147,419,448Form
2GARCIA ERNEST C. IIIChief Executive Officer9292025Sell356.3210035,632143,005,469Form
3GARCIA ERNEST C. IIIChief Executive Officer9252025Sell369.305018,465150,079,827Form
4GARCIA ERNEST C. IIIChief Executive Officer9252025Sell392.46282110,674159,655,868Form