Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.9%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.9%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CSX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -1.5% stock movement for CSX from July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025: **1. Q2 2025 Financial Performance.** CSX's second-quarter financial results, announced on July 23, 2025, just prior to the specified period, revealed a 3% year-over-year decrease in revenue and a 10% decline in earnings per share (EPS). These reductions were primarily driven by lower export-coal benchmarks and decreased fuel surcharges.

**2. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Declining Reported Earnings.** For the third quarter of 2025, announced on October 16, 2025, CSX reported a 0.9% year-over-year decline in revenue, reaching $3.59 billion, which fell short of analysts' expectations of $3.60 billion. Furthermore, reported operating income decreased to $1.09 billion from $1.35 billion in Q3 2024, and net earnings dropped to $694 million ($0.37 per share) from $894 million ($0.46 per share) in the comparable prior-year quarter.

**3. Non-Cash Goodwill Impairment.** The third-quarter 2025 results included a substantial non-cash goodwill impairment of $164 million. This impairment directly impacted the company's reported operating income and net earnings for the quarter.

**4. Continued Weakness in Key Freight Segments.** The year-over-year revenue decrease observed in Q3 2025 was largely attributed to a combination of lower export coal prices and a decline in merchandise volume. These ongoing challenges in crucial freight segments continued from Q2 2025, which also saw steel and industrial markets impacted by unfavorable shifts.

**5. Leadership Transition.** On September 29, 2025, CSX announced a leadership change, with Steve Angel taking over as President and CEO, succeeding Joe Hinrichs. While this transition was met with some positive analyst reactions, including raised price targets, a change in top leadership can often introduce a degree of short-term uncertainty for investors, potentially contributing to stock price fluctuations.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CSX Return27%26%-17%14%-6%9%56%
Peers Return21%14%-6%-3%51%-7%76%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CSX Win Rate75%58%33%50%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate55%38%32%50%45%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CSX Max Drawdown-34%-8%-29%-9%-8%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-5%-15%-26%-10%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, CP, NSC, CNI, SWVL. See CSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCSXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-29.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven499 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven205 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven98 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-69.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven230.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven675 days1480 days

Compare to UNP, CP, NSC, CNI, SWVL


In The Past

CSX's stock fell -29.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -29.9% loss requires a 42.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CSX (CSX)

Interactive Breakdown

CSX Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than CSX (CSX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CSX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.0%-12.0%-12.6%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-6.4%-6.4%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-2.0%-2.0%-2.7%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.4%-8.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%
CSX_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
22.7%21.2%-9.3%
CSX_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.9%12.3%-3.9%
CSX_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.4%4.2%-2.7%
CSX_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-14.4%-9.6%-22.3%
CSX_11302019_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302019CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%29.3%-33.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.0%-12.0%-12.6%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-6.4%-6.4%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-2.0%-2.0%-2.7%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.4%-8.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%
CSX_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
22.7%21.2%-9.3%
CSX_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.9%12.3%-3.9%
CSX_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.4%4.2%-2.7%
CSX_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-14.4%-9.6%-22.3%
CSX_11302019_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302019CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%29.3%-33.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CSX

Financials

CSXUNPCPNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameCSX Union Pa.Canadian.Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Mkt Price34.88221.4871.15283.5396.613.0683.88
Mkt Cap65.0131.264.863.660.1-64.8
Rev LTM14,12324,54615,02912,23017,1981814,576
Op Inc LTM4,8289,9705,5564,7556,482-55,192
FCF LTM1,5526,0132,3932,0993,444-2,393
FCF 3Y Avg2,5245,4342,2221,4933,558-2,524
CFO LTM4,6159,7275,4894,2496,817-5,489
CFO 3Y Avg5,0869,0274,9703,7766,919-5,086

Growth & Margins

CSXUNPCPNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameCSX Union Pa.Canadian.Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Rev Chg LTM-3.8%1.1%4.0%0.5%0.2%22.5%0.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.0%0.2%22.2%-0.3%1.8%-0.2%
Rev Chg Q-0.9%2.5%3.2%1.7%1.3%123.4%2.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%0.6%0.8%0.4%0.3%290.5%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM34.2%40.6%37.0%38.9%37.7%-28.5%37.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg36.5%39.3%35.7%38.6%38.4%-38.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%0.3%0.6%-3.2%0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM32.7%39.6%36.5%34.7%39.6%-36.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.0%37.1%36.9%30.9%40.5%-36.9%
FCF/Rev LTM11.0%24.5%15.9%17.2%20.0%-17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.3%22.3%16.6%12.2%20.8%-17.3%

Valuation

CSXUNPCPNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameCSX Union Pa.Canadian.Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Mkt Cap65.0131.264.863.660.1-64.8
P/S4.65.34.35.23.5-4.6
P/EBIT14.112.710.313.88.6-12.7
P/E22.418.615.221.513.0-18.6
P/CFO14.113.511.815.08.8-13.5
Total Yield5.6%7.8%7.8%4.7%11.3%-7.8%
Dividend Yield1.1%2.5%1.2%0.0%3.7%-1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.9%3.9%3.1%2.6%5.3%-3.9%
D/E0.30.30.40.30.4-0.3
Net D/E0.30.20.40.20.4-0.3

Returns

CSXUNPCPNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameCSX Union Pa.Canadian.Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
1M Rtn-3.5%-2.5%-6.6%-1.9%0.8%-6.7%-3.0%
3M Rtn-3.7%0.6%-3.5%0.8%5.1%-24.6%-1.4%
6M Rtn12.3%-2.9%-12.3%17.4%-9.3%-33.5%-6.1%
12M Rtn-2.9%-5.7%-5.6%7.6%-10.9%-16.6%-5.7%
3Y Rtn14.5%9.6%-4.2%20.7%-14.9%-71.9%2.7%
1M Excs Rtn-4.7%-2.9%-8.3%-2.7%-1.5%-3.2%-3.1%
3M Excs Rtn-8.0%-3.5%-8.4%-3.0%0.0%-26.4%-5.8%
6M Excs Rtn-1.5%-16.7%-26.2%3.5%-23.1%-47.3%-19.9%
12M Excs Rtn-15.3%-18.5%-19.6%-5.4%-23.3%-31.7%-19.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-54.5%-59.5%-81.8%-47.5%-91.0%-149.4%-70.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rail13,77514,853 10,58311,937
Trucking Revenue887    
Elimination of intersegment revenues-5    
Agricultural and Food Products  1,461  
Automotive  886  
Chemicals  2,421  
Coal  1,790  
Fertilizers  470  
Forest Products  918  
Intermodal  2,039  
Metals and Equipment  796  
Minerals  587  
Other  744  
Trucking  410  
Total14,65714,85312,52210,58311,937


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rail5,467    
Trucking Revenue and Eliminations882    
Trucking Expenses and Eliminations-850    
Total5,499    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rail42,000    
Total42,000    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24,903,822
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-10.1%
Average Daily Volume13,450,666
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.85
Basic Shares Quantity1,864,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/16/20251.7%-1.3% 
7/23/20250.1%0.9%2.6%
4/16/20251.2%2.9%14.5%
1/23/2025-2.9%-2.4%-5.5%
10/16/2024-6.7%-5.3%0.5%
8/5/20242.6%1.5%6.0%
4/17/20240.7%-1.4%-0.7%
1/24/20241.8%3.8%11.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151113
# Negative91311
Median Positive1.8%3.5%5.1%
Median Negative-3.2%-2.3%-1.3%
Max Positive4.3%11.9%16.5%
Max Negative-6.7%-5.4%-12.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251016202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025416202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241017202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024418202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231020202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023720202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023420202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221021202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More