CSX (CSX)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $34.87 | Market Cap: $65.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
CSX (CSX)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $34.87Market Cap: $65.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CSX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -1.5% stock movement for CSX from July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025:
**1. Q2 2025 Financial Performance.**
CSX's second-quarter financial results, announced on July 23, 2025, just prior to the specified period, revealed a 3% year-over-year decrease in revenue and a 10% decline in earnings per share (EPS). These reductions were primarily driven by lower export-coal benchmarks and decreased fuel surcharges.
**2. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Declining Reported Earnings.**
For the third quarter of 2025, announced on October 16, 2025, CSX reported a 0.9% year-over-year decline in revenue, reaching $3.59 billion, which fell short of analysts' expectations of $3.60 billion. Furthermore, reported operating income decreased to $1.09 billion from $1.35 billion in Q3 2024, and net earnings dropped to $694 million ($0.37 per share) from $894 million ($0.46 per share) in the comparable prior-year quarter.
**3. Non-Cash Goodwill Impairment.**
The third-quarter 2025 results included a substantial non-cash goodwill impairment of $164 million. This impairment directly impacted the company's reported operating income and net earnings for the quarter.
**4. Continued Weakness in Key Freight Segments.**
The year-over-year revenue decrease observed in Q3 2025 was largely attributed to a combination of lower export coal prices and a decline in merchandise volume. These ongoing challenges in crucial freight segments continued from Q2 2025, which also saw steel and industrial markets impacted by unfavorable shifts.
**5. Leadership Transition.**
On September 29, 2025, CSX announced a leadership change, with Steve Angel taking over as President and CEO, succeeding Joe Hinrichs. While this transition was met with some positive analyst reactions, including raised price targets, a change in top leadership can often introduce a degree of short-term uncertainty for investors, potentially contributing to stock price fluctuations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSX Return | 27% | 26% | -17% | 14% | -6% | 9% | 56% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 14% | -6% | -3% | 51% | -7% | 76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSX Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 38% | 32% | 50% | 45% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSX Max Drawdown | -34% | -8% | -29% | -9% | -8% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -5% | -15% | -26% | -10% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, CP, NSC, CNI, SWVL. See CSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 499 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 230.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 675 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UNP, CP, NSC, CNI, SWVL
In The Past
CSX's stock fell -29.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -29.9% loss requires a 42.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| CSX Earnings Notes | |||
| Pay Less, Grow More: UNP Beats CSX Stock | Actionable | ||
| CSX Capital Return Hits $29 Bil in 10 Years | |||
| How Low Can CSX Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| How Does CSX Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for CSX Stock with -11% Return (vs. 1.3% YTD) [8/26/2025] | Notification | ||
| CSX vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than CSX Stock: Pay Less Than CSX To Get More From UNP, NSC | |||
| Better Bet Than CSX Stock: Pay Less Than CSX To Get More From NSC, UNP | |||
| CSX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Pay Less, Gain More: UNP Tops CSX Stock | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| CSX Stock Pays Out $29 Bil – Investors Take Note | October 28th, 2025 | ||
| UNP Tops CSX Stock on Price & Potential | October 25th, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than CSX Stock: Pay Less To Get More From NSC | October 1st, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: WDC, COIN, CSX | Losers: WSM, VST, CCL | September 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.0% | -12.0% | -12.6% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -6.4% | -6.4% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.0% | -2.0% | -2.7% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.4% | -8.4% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| 03312025 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 22.7% | 21.2% | -9.3% |
| 04302023 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.9% | 12.3% | -3.9% |
| 10312022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.4% | 4.2% | -2.7% |
| 04302022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.4% | -9.6% | -22.3% |
| 11302019 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 29.3% | -33.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.0% | -12.0% | -12.6% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -6.4% | -6.4% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.0% | -2.0% | -2.7% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.4% | -8.4% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| 03312025 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 22.7% | 21.2% | -9.3% |
| 04302023 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.9% | 12.3% | -3.9% |
| 10312022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.4% | 4.2% | -2.7% |
| 04302022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.4% | -9.6% | -22.3% |
| 11302019 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 29.3% | -33.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CSX
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 83.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 64.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,576 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,192 |
| FCF LTM | 2,393 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,524 |
| CFO LTM | 5,489 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,086 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 38.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 64.8 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 12.7 |
| P/E | 18.6 |
| P/CFO | 13.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 13,775 | 14,853 | 10,583 | 11,937 | |
| Trucking Revenue | 887 | ||||
| Elimination of intersegment revenues | -5 | ||||
| Agricultural and Food Products | 1,461 | ||||
| Automotive | 886 | ||||
| Chemicals | 2,421 | ||||
| Coal | 1,790 | ||||
| Fertilizers | 470 | ||||
| Forest Products | 918 | ||||
| Intermodal | 2,039 | ||||
| Metals and Equipment | 796 | ||||
| Minerals | 587 | ||||
| Other | 744 | ||||
| Trucking | 410 | ||||
| Total | 14,657 | 14,853 | 12,522 | 10,583 | 11,937 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 5,467 | ||||
| Trucking Revenue and Eliminations | 882 | ||||
| Trucking Expenses and Eliminations | -850 | ||||
| Total | 5,499 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 42,000 | ||||
| Total | 42,000 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/16/2025 | 1.7% | -1.3% | |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| 4/16/2025 | 1.2% | 2.9% | 14.5% |
| 1/23/2025 | -2.9% | -2.4% | -5.5% |
| 10/16/2024 | -6.7% | -5.3% | 0.5% |
| 8/5/2024 | 2.6% | 1.5% | 6.0% |
| 4/17/2024 | 0.7% | -1.4% | -0.7% |
| 1/24/2024 | 1.8% | 3.8% | 11.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -2.3% | -1.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.3% | 11.9% | 16.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -5.4% | -12.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10162025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4162025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10172024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4182024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10202023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10212022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
