Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (11/25/2025): $76.3 | Market Cap: $302.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (11/25/2025): $76.3Market Cap: $302.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CSCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results provide information about Cisco Systems' (CSCO) earnings reports for Q3 and Q4 of fiscal year 2025, and Q1 of fiscal year 2026, which fall within the requested time period of July 31, 2025, to November 25, 2025. This includes details on revenue, EPS, and factors like AI infrastructure demand and recurring revenue. Some articles also discuss analyst expectations and stock performance around these announcements, noting a surge to new highs and outperformance of certain market indices.
Here are the key points for Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock movement from July 31, 2025, to today, November 25, 2025:
1. Strong Fiscal Year 2025 and Q4 2025 Earnings: Cisco reported strong financial results for its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 (period ended July 26, 2025), with Q4 revenue up 8% year over year to $14.7 billion and full-year revenue up 5% to $56.7 billion, exceeding guidance ranges. Non-GAAP EPS for Q4 was $0.99, an increase of 14% year over year.
2. Positive Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook and Q1 2026 Performance: The company provided a positive outlook for fiscal year 2026, projecting revenue between $59.0 billion and $60.0 billion. Cisco then reported a solid start to fiscal year 2026 with first-quarter results (period ended October 25, 2025) showing revenue of $14.9 billion, an 8% increase year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.00, up 10%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSCO Return | -3% | 46% | -22% | 9% | 21% | 32% | 91% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 44% | -23% | 81% | 56% | 17% | 355% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSCO Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 58% | 28% | 50% | 55% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSCO Max Drawdown | -30% | -1% | -36% | -3% | -9% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -4% | -35% | -5% | -4% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ANET, VRT, NTAP, FIEE, CSCO. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 856 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 375 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 624 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2906 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ANET, VRT, NTAP, FIEE, CSCO
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 62.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.0% | -10.0% | -15.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -4.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -6.3% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -5.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -8.9% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.0% | -10.0% | -15.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -4.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -6.3% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -5.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -8.9% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cisco Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 108.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 109.1 |
| Rev LTM | 8,448 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,748 |
| FCF LTM | 1,658 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,380 |
| CFO LTM | 1,838 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,563 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 109.1 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | 33.1 |
| P/E | 37.7 |
| P/CFO | 29.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 166.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 104.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | 6.0% | |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.7% | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 11.0% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -24.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9032025 | 10-K 7/26/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 4/26/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2182025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11192024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-K 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5212024 | 10-Q 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2202024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9072023 | 10-K 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2212023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-K 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5252022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2222022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
