Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $70.15 | Market Cap: $277.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $70.15Market Cap: $277.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% | |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.3% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CSCO Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
CSCO Return | -3% | 46% | -22% | 9% | 21% | 22% | 75% |
Peers Return | 32% | 33% | -28% | 82% | 58% | 22% | 349% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
CSCO Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 28% | 47% | 53% | 76% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
CSCO Max Drawdown | -30% | -1% | -36% | -3% | -9% | -9% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -7% | -38% | -8% | -7% | -28% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ANET, VRT, ERIC, NTAP, FIEE. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -38.6% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 856 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -33.5% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 375 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -25.0% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 624 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -60.0% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 150.2% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 2906 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Cisco Systems's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 62.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.5% | -5.5% | -6.7% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.1% | 9.1% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.2% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.5% | -5.5% | -6.7% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.1% | 9.1% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.2% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cisco Systems
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 94.60 |
Mkt Cap | 66.4 |
Rev LTM | 8,522 |
Op Inc LTM | 2,507 |
FCF LTM | 2,817 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 1,960 |
CFO LTM | 2,943 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 2,075 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
Op Mgn LTM | 19.6% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 20.4% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 66.4 |
P/S | 4.9 |
P/EBIT | 21.9 |
P/E | 27.3 |
P/CFO | 19.6 |
Total Yield | 6.0% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 0.2% |
3M Rtn | 19.2% |
6M Rtn | 45.5% |
12M Rtn | 26.7% |
3Y Rtn | 104.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
3M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
6M Excs Rtn | 19.3% |
12M Excs Rtn | 18.4% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 18.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
5/15/2024 | -2.7% | -4.5% | -8.0% |
2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -3.4% | -2.7% |
11/15/2023 | -9.8% | -9.8% | -6.4% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 13 | 13 | 12 |
# Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Median Positive | 4.5% | 3.4% | 6.2% |
Median Negative | -5.2% | -4.7% | -6.5% |
Max Positive | 7.1% | 11.0% | 14.4% |
Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -24.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
7312025 | 9032025 | 10-K 7/26/2025 |
4302025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 4/26/2025 |
1312025 | 2182025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
10312024 | 11192024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
7312024 | 9052024 | 10-K 7/27/2024 |
4302024 | 5212024 | 10-Q 4/27/2024 |
1312024 | 2202024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
7312023 | 9072023 | 10-K 7/29/2023 |
4302023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
1312023 | 2212023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
7312022 | 9082022 | 10-K 7/30/2022 |
4302022 | 5252022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
1312022 | 2222022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | EVP, Operations | 9152025 | Sell | 66.78 | 1,744 | 116,464 | 10,551,816 | Form |
1 | Wong Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | 8272025 | Sell | 67.28 | 3,162 | 212,739 | 2,117,178 | Form |
2 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | EVP, Operations | 8202025 | Sell | 66.84 | 7,511 | 502,022 | 10,792,159 | Form |
3 | Patel Jeetendra I | President and CPO | 8192025 | Sell | 66.21 | 5,755 | 381,049 | 15,937,932 | Form |
4 | Robbins Charles | Chair and CEO | 8192025 | Sell | 66.19 | 18,370 | 1,215,852 | 43,099,967 | Form |
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