Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $78.0 | Market Cap: $309.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $78.0Market Cap: $309.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CSCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock moved by 15.3% from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025:
1. Strong Q4 FY2025 Earnings and Positive Outlook.
Cisco reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 on August 13, 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations with revenue of $14.7 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, and EPS of $0.99, slightly above the $0.98 forecast. This performance was attributed to strong demand for AI infrastructure and network upgrades, along with the introduction of new AI-centric products. Despite a slight initial dip in stock price post-earnings, the company's positive forward guidance for Q1 FY2026 and full fiscal year 2026 helped to establish a bullish outlook.
2. Robust Q1 FY2026 Earnings and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
On November 12, 2025, Cisco announced strong first-quarter fiscal year 2026 results that exceeded guidance. The company reported revenue of $14.9 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.00, marking a 10% year-over-year increase and beating analyst estimates of $0.98. Following this strong performance, Cisco raised its full-year FY2026 guidance, projecting revenue between $60.2 billion and $61.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS between $4.08 and $4.14, significantly boosting investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSCO Return | 34% | 34% | |||||
| Peers Return | 32% | 33% | -28% | 82% | 58% | 17% | 331% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSCO Win Rate | |||||||
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 28% | 47% | 53% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSCO Max Drawdown | |||||||
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -7% | -38% | -8% | -7% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ANET, VRT, ERIC, NTAP, FIEE. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 856 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 375 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 624 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2906 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ANET, VRT, ERIC, NTAP, FIEE
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 62.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -10.3% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -10.3% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cisco Systems
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 93.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.3 |
| Rev LTM | 9,072 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,686 |
| FCF LTM | 2,852 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,146 |
| CFO LTM | 2,989 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,264 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 65.3 |
| P/S | 5.5 |
| P/EBIT | 24.3 |
| P/E | 30.3 |
| P/CFO | 21.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 89.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 20.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 20.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | ||
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.7% | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 3.4% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 11.0% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -24.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9032025 | 10-K 7/26/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 4/26/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2182025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11192024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-K 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5212024 | 10-Q 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2202024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9072023 | 10-K 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2212023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-K 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5252022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2222022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
