Costco Wholesale (COST)
Market Price (11/19/2025): $899.0 | Market Cap: $399.2 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Costco Wholesale (COST)
Market Price (11/19/2025): $899.0Market Cap: $399.2 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.8 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
COST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that may explain the approximate -4.5% movement in Costco Wholesale (COST) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 19, 2025:
1. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Several financial institutions downgraded Costco's stock or reduced their price targets during this period. For example, Erste Group Bank lowered its rating from "buy" to "hold" in early August 2025, citing a "pricey valuation" and anticipated "lower sales figures." Mizuho also cut its price objective on Costco in October 2025, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its price target in early November 2025. Other firms like Truist Financial and Daiwa Capital Markets also reduced their price objectives and maintained neutral ratings, often highlighting valuation concerns.
2. Persistent Concerns Over High Valuation: Despite reporting strong sales and earnings, analysts consistently pointed to Costco's elevated valuation as a factor limiting further stock upside or signaling a potential pullback. Costco's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was noted to be significantly higher than the industry average, with some reports mentioning it trading at over 50 times projected earnings. This valuation concern contributed to a cautious outlook from some analysts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COST Return | 33% | 52% | -19% | 49% | 40% | -2% | 233% |
| Peers Return | 48% | 26% | -16% | 10% | 21% | 5% | 120% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COST Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 45% | 60% | 58% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COST Max Drawdown | -5% | -17% | -26% | -1% | -2% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -8% | -30% | -20% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ. See COST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/18/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 566 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 701 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ
In The Past
Costco Wholesale's stock fell -31.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -31.5% loss requires a 46.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to COST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.3% | -11.3% | -11.3% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.8% | 1.8% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.1% | -5.1% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.6% | -25.6% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.3% | -11.3% | -11.3% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.8% | 1.8% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.1% | -5.1% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.6% | -25.6% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Costco Wholesale
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 218.8 |
| Rev LTM | 190,438 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,904 |
| FCF LTM | 5,390 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,176 |
| CFO LTM | 9,860 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,692 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 218.8 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 20.3 |
| P/E | 27.1 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 51.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/25/2025 | -2.9% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
| 5/29/2025 | 3.1% | 0.2% | -1.9% |
| 3/6/2025 | -6.1% | -13.2% | -10.7% |
| 12/12/2024 | 0.1% | -3.4% | -6.6% |
| 9/26/2024 | -1.8% | -2.9% | -1.1% |
| 5/30/2024 | -0.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% |
| 3/7/2024 | -7.6% | -6.8% | -9.4% |
| 12/14/2023 | 4.4% | 5.5% | 10.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -2.9% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 5.5% | 13.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -13.2% | -10.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10082025 | 10-K 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/11/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3132025 | 10-Q 2/16/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12192024 | 10-Q 11/24/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10092024 | 10-K 9/1/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6062024 | 10-Q 5/12/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3132024 | 10-Q 2/18/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12202023 | 10-Q 11/26/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10112023 | 10-K 9/3/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 5/7/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 2/12/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12292022 | 10-Q 11/20/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10052022 | 10-K 8/28/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 5/8/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 2/13/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12222021 | 10-Q 11/21/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jones Teresa A. | Executive Vice President | 8222025 | Sell | 992.05 | 600 | 595,230 | 2,343,346 | Form |
| 1 | Rubanenko Yoram | Executive Vice President | 7152025 | Sell | 974.96 | 4,000 | 3,899,852 | 5,629,468 | Form |
| 2 | DECKER SUSAN L | 6202025 | Sell | 980.00 | 546 | 535,080 | 11,301,297 | Form | |
| 3 | Callans Patrick J | Executive Vice President | 6102025 | Sell | 1002.77 | 3,000 | 3,008,298 | 58,704,666 | Form |
| 4 | Riel Pierre | Executive Vice President | 6092025 | Sell | 1014.15 | 2,000 | 2,028,294 | 8,326,396 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
