Tearsheet

Carnival (CCL)


Market Price (11/8/2025): $26.76 | Market Cap: $35.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Carnival (CCL)


Market Price (11/8/2025): $26.76
Market Cap: $35.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 8.3%
  Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 74%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 5.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 8.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 5.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 74%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CCL Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CCL Return-57%-7%-60%130%34%6%-48%
Peers Return-10%-10%-31%74%11%-14%-8%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CCL Win Rate42%50%42%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%50%43%60%55%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CCL Max Drawdown-84%-24%-68%-1%-25%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-25%-43%-5%-30%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RCL, NCLH, UOKA, BKNG, ABNB. See CCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCCLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven390.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1051 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-84.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven551.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-44.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-70.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven241.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2426 days1480 days

Compare to RCL, NCLH, UOKA, BKNG, ABNB


In The Past

Carnival's stock fell -79.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -79.6% loss requires a 390.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carnival (CCL)

Better Bets than Carnival (CCL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.3%0.3%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.2%-3.2%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.7%-0.7%-2.5%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-6.2%
CCL_10312023_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE10312023CCLCarnivalDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
29.3%93.4%-1.4%
CCL_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312020CCLCarnivalDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
14.4%101.5%-39.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.3%0.3%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.2%-3.2%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.7%-0.7%-2.5%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-6.2%
CCL_10312023_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE10312023CCLCarnivalDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
29.3%93.4%-1.4%
CCL_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312020CCLCarnivalDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
14.4%101.5%-39.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Carnival

Financials

CCLRCLNCLHUOKABKNGABNBMedian
NameCarnival Royal Ca.Norwegia.MDJM Booking Airbnb  
Mkt Price26.73256.0119.072.954,940.00120.8873.80
Mkt Cap35.169.68.6-160.073.969.6
Rev LTM26,22917,4379,693-26,03911,94317,437
Op Inc LTM4,3094,6051,589-8,9812,7054,309
FCF LTM2,9142,035-1,036-8,3154,5862,914
FCF 3Y Avg1,1971,369-339-8,2204,3161,369
CFO LTM5,6116,3092,030-8,6404,5865,611
CFO 3Y Avg4,9295,0531,974-8,5864,3284,929

Growth & Margins

CCLRCLNCLHUOKABKNGABNBMedian
NameCarnival Royal Ca.Norwegia.MDJM Booking Airbnb  
Rev Chg LTM7.1%8.6%3.6%-13.0%10.2%8.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg45.9%37.7%43.8%-17.8%14.2%37.7%
Rev Chg Q3.3%5.2%4.7%-12.7%9.7%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.0%1.5%1.4%-4.1%3.1%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM16.4%26.4%16.4%-34.5%22.6%22.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.8%23.1%12.5%-31.4%20.4%20.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.0%0.4%-1.6%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM21.4%36.2%20.9%-33.2%38.4%33.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.6%32.2%22.0%-37.2%40.3%32.2%
FCF/Rev LTM11.1%11.7%-10.7%-31.9%38.4%11.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.5%9.3%-3.6%-35.6%40.2%9.3%

Valuation

CCLRCLNCLHUOKABKNGABNBMedian
NameCarnival Royal Ca.Norwegia.MDJM Booking Airbnb  
Mkt Cap35.169.68.6-160.073.969.6
P/S1.34.00.9-6.16.24.0
P/EBIT8.613.75.8-19.027.313.7
P/E13.317.113.0-31.728.117.1
P/CFO6.311.04.2-18.516.111.0
Total Yield7.5%6.3%7.7%-3.9%3.6%6.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%0.0%-0.8%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%4.0%-3.3%-6.0%5.4%4.0%
D/E0.80.31.7-0.10.00.3
Net D/E0.70.31.7-0.0-0.10.3

Returns

CCLRCLNCLHUOKABKNGABNBMedian
NameCarnival Royal Ca.Norwegia.MDJM Booking Airbnb  
1M Rtn-7.6%-17.0%-19.5%-5.8%-3.7%0.7%-6.7%
3M Rtn-5.8%-14.8%-20.5%14.9%-8.5%-0.1%-7.1%
6M Rtn32.4%10.4%7.7%-13.4%-2.3%-4.8%2.7%
12M Rtn12.9%17.5%-29.5%-39.5%1.1%-18.0%-8.4%
3Y Rtn193.7%378.0%10.4%-93.1%169.5%22.2%95.9%
1M Excs Rtn-6.0%-16.5%-18.0%-7.4%-4.8%0.7%-6.7%
3M Excs Rtn-12.1%-20.8%-25.2%5.3%-13.3%-3.4%-12.7%
6M Excs Rtn13.5%-8.5%-11.1%-32.2%-21.2%-23.7%-16.2%
12M Excs Rtn2.7%6.5%-42.8%-42.9%-15.1%-28.7%-21.9%
3Y Excs Rtn128.6%343.8%-62.3%-171.6%102.8%-50.9%26.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America14,5888,2811,1083,62713,612
Europe6,5353,5317121,7906,650
Tour and Other26518546110390
Cruise Support2061714268173
Total21,59412,1681,9085,59520,825


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America1,752-2,170-3,928-5,7942,451
Europe593-1,830-2,617-2,7291,115
Tour and Other11-64-67-2956
Cruise Support-399-315-477-313-347
Total1,957-4,379-7,089-8,8653,275


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America28,54727,41325,60625,25727,102
Europe16,52415,31716,08816,50515,473
Cruise Support3,6678,46111,01411,1351,861
Tour and Other382512637696623
Total49,12051,70353,34553,59345,059


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity49,932,315
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-6.3%
Average Daily Volume19,206,774
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.60
Basic Shares Quantity1,313,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/29/2025-4.0%-6.7%-3.9%
6/24/20256.9%17.0%23.9%
3/21/2025-1.2%-2.0%-18.7%
12/20/20246.4%-0.4%1.7%
9/30/2024-0.3%-2.8%18.2%
6/25/20248.7%8.1%11.0%
3/27/20240.9%-9.9%-10.9%
12/21/20236.2%3.3%-10.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131010
# Negative101313
Median Positive6.2%9.1%13.5%
Median Negative-3.2%-6.7%-9.7%
Max Positive12.4%19.2%32.3%
Max Negative-23.3%-23.8%-22.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025929202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025626202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025325202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024127202510-K 11/30/2024
8312024930202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024627202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024327202410-Q 2/29/2024
11302023126202410-K 11/30/2023
8312023929202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023628202310-Q 5/31/2023
2282023329202310-Q 2/28/2023
11302022127202310-K 11/30/2022
8312022930202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022629202210-Q 5/31/2022
2282022328202210-Q 2/28/2022
11302021127202210-K 11/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0BAND SIR JONATHON 8052025Sell29.7512,500371,9121,916,269Form
1Bernstein DavidCFO & CAO5162025Sell22.84105,0102,398,5333,198,951Form