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Carnival Corporation (CCL)

Market Price (5/17/2026): $24.67 | Market Cap: $34.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Carnival Corporation (CCL)

Market Price (5/17/2026): $24.67
Market Cap: $34.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 8.8%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech.

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 74%

Key risks
CCL key risks include [1] a substantial debt load and high financial leverage that have placed the company in a financial "distress zone".

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech.
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 74%
5 Key risks
CCL key risks include [1] a substantial debt load and high financial leverage that have placed the company in a financial "distress zone".

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Carnival Corporation (CCL) stock has lost about 20% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Geopolitical Tensions and Rising Fuel Costs Triggered Sharp Stock Pullbacks. Geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, led to concerns over travel disruptions and a surge in bunker fuel prices in March 2026. This macroeconomic factor caused Carnival's stock to experience a sharp 15% pullback that month, and a more significant 22.4% decline from $33.99 on February 6, 2026, to $26.39 by March 10, 2026. These rising fuel expenses also directly impacted the company's Q1 2026 financial results, leading to a $54 million unfavorable impact on adjusted EPS.

2. Valuation Concerns Amidst Price Target Revisions. Despite Carnival reporting a strong Q1 2026 performance with adjusted EPS of $0.20 beating estimates of $0.18 and revenues up 6.1% year-over-year to $6.17 billion, the stock faced downward pressure from valuation concerns and analyst adjustments. For instance, research firm CRFA revised Carnival's price target from $36 to $28 per share around March 20, 2026, specifically citing ongoing concerns over rising fuel expenses and broader macroeconomic factors impacting travel spending. As of May 13, 2026, the stock was trading at an 8.7% premium to its intrinsic GF Value estimate of $22.86, suggesting potential overvaluation despite a comparatively lower P/E ratio.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -17.5% change in CCL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120265162026Change
Stock Price ($)29.8824.64-17.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)26,62126,9761.3%
Net Income Margin (%)10.4%11.5%10.7%
P/E Multiple14.211.0-22.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,3151,379-4.6%
Cumulative Contribution-17.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/16/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CCL-17.5% 
Market (SPY)7.1%71.7%
Sector (XLY)-3.6%75.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.1% change in CCL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120255162026Change
Stock Price ($)28.7024.64-14.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)26,22926,9762.8%
Net Income Margin (%)10.1%11.5%14.0%
P/E Multiple14.311.0-23.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,3131,379-4.8%
Cumulative Contribution-14.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/16/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CCL-14.1% 
Market (SPY)9.0%60.1%
Sector (XLY)-2.5%59.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 35.0% change in CCL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)43020255162026Change
Stock Price ($)18.2624.6435.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)25,42526,9766.1%
Net Income Margin (%)8.1%11.5%42.2%
P/E Multiple11.611.0-5.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,3091,379-5.1%
Cumulative Contribution35.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/16/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CCL35.0% 
Market (SPY)34.8%61.9%
Sector (XLY)19.1%60.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 168.8% change in CCL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 80.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)43020235162026Change
Stock Price ($)9.1724.64168.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)14,97926,97680.1%
P/S Multiple0.81.363.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2601,379-8.6%
Cumulative Contribution168.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/16/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CCL168.8% 
Market (SPY)84.7%59.3%
Sector (XLY)61.5%60.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CCL Return-7%-60%130%34%23%-17%17%
Peers Return17%-25%71%39%-1%-19%65%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CCL Win Rate50%42%50%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate52%44%60%56%52%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%60% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CCL Max Drawdown-48%-73%-43%-27%-42%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-47%-28%-21%-39%-39% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RCL, H, NCLH, WH, AHMA. See CCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/15/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventCCLS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-37.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven80 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-21.0%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.6%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven40 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-36.8%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.2%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven47 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-26.5%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.1%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven76 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-70.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven235.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven736 days427 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-19.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven24.7%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven51 days62 days

Compare to RCL, H, NCLH, WH, AHMA

In The Past

Carnival Corporation's stock fell -37.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 58.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventCCLS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-37.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven80 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-21.0%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.6%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven40 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-36.8%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.2%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven47 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-26.5%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.1%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven76 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-70.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven235.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven736 days427 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-31.1%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.1%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven128 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-65.1%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven186.9%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven522 days1085 days

Compare to RCL, H, NCLH, WH, AHMA

In The Past

Carnival Corporation's stock fell -37.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 58.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carnival Corporation (CCL)

Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Carnival Corporation (CCL):

  • The Marriott or Hilton of the seas.
  • Like Club Med, but as a fleet of global, multi-brand floating resorts.

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  • Cruises: Providing leisure travel experiences on ships to various global destinations under multiple brand names.
  • Land-Based Travel & Hospitality: Operating hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches, often complementing cruise vacations.
  • Port & Onboard Services: Managing port destinations and offering a range of amenities and activities to enhance the overall cruise experience.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Carnival Corporation (CCL) primarily sells its cruise vacations directly to individual consumers, although sales are often facilitated through travel agents, tour operators, and vacation planners.

Based on its diverse portfolio of cruise brands, Carnival Corporation serves the following major categories of individual customers:

  • Mass Market and Family Travelers

    This category includes individuals and families seeking an accessible, fun, and often value-oriented cruise experience. Brands like Carnival Cruise Line, AIDA Cruises, and Costa Cruises cater to this segment, offering a wide array of entertainment, dining, and activities designed to appeal to a broad demographic, including multi-generational families and younger adults.

  • Premium and Upscale Travelers

    This segment comprises individuals and couples who desire a more refined, destination-focused, or culturally enriched cruise vacation. These customers often prioritize enhanced service, sophisticated amenities, and diverse itineraries. Brands such as Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and P&O Cruises (UK/Australia) typically serve this customer base, which may include affluent retirees, empty-nesters, or professional couples.

  • Luxury and Ultra-Luxury Travelers

    This category targets high-net-worth individuals who seek an exclusive, highly personalized, and often all-inclusive cruise experience. These travelers expect bespoke service, gourmet dining, lavish accommodations, and unique, often exotic, itineraries on smaller, more intimate ships. Seabourn and Cunard (particularly for its higher-tier offerings and transatlantic voyages) cater to this discerning clientele.

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  • Fincantieri S.p.A. (FINCANTIERI.MI)

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Josh Weinstein, Chief Executive Officer

A 20-year veteran of Carnival Corporation, Josh Weinstein assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer in August 2022. Prior to his current position, he served as Chief Operations Officer of Carnival Corporation from June 2020 to July 2022, overseeing critical operational functions including global maritime, global ports and destinations, global sourcing, global IT, and global auditing. From July 2017 to 2020, he was President of Carnival UK, responsible for P&O Cruises and Cunard. Weinstein also served as Treasurer for Carnival Corporation from 2007 to 2017. Before joining Carnival Corporation, he worked as a corporate attorney.

David Bernstein, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer

David Bernstein has been the Chief Financial Officer of Carnival Corporation since July 2007 and Chief Accounting Officer since April 2016. He joined Carnival Corporation & plc in July 2003 as Vice President and Treasurer. Before this, he served as Chief Financial Officer for Carnival's operating units Cunard Line and Seabourn Cruise Line from June 1998 to July 2003. Earlier in his career, he spent seven years at Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., where he held various financial roles including Assistant Controller, Assistant Treasurer, and Director of Corporate Planning.

Christine Duffy, President, Carnival Cruise Line

Christine Duffy has served as the President of Carnival Cruise Line, the flagship brand of Carnival Corporation, since 2015. Prior to her time at Carnival, Duffy was the President and CEO of the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA). Before joining CLIA, she spent a decade at Maritz Travel Company, serving as President and CEO for six years and becoming the first female president in the company's history. Duffy began her career as a travel agent and ascended to the role of president at McGettigan Travel, a company that was later acquired by Maritz Travel Co.

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The key risks to Carnival Corporation (CCL) are multifaceted, stemming from its capital-intensive nature and reliance on discretionary consumer spending.

1. Economic Slowdown and Consumer Discretionary Spending

Carnival Corporation is highly susceptible to economic downturns, inflation, and shifts in consumer confidence, as cruise vacations are a discretionary expense. A recessionary environment or persistent inflationary pressures can lead to reduced demand for cruise bookings and pressure on ticket prices, directly impacting the company's revenue streams and profitability.

2. High Debt Burden and Interest Rate Risk

The company carries a substantial debt load, largely accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Servicing this debt requires significant cash, and Carnival's ability to generate sufficient cash flow is crucial. Rising interest rates pose an additional risk, as a significant portion of its debt is floating rate, which could further strain its financial health and limit investment in growth initiatives.

3. Operational Risks, including Fuel Costs, Geopolitical Events, and Health Crises

Carnival faces inherent operational risks, including volatility in fuel prices, which are a major expense and can significantly impact profit margins. Geopolitical instability and conflicts can disrupt travel patterns, alter itineraries, and increase operational costs. Furthermore, the cruise industry remains vulnerable to public health crises, such as pandemics or localized outbreaks on ships, which can lead to cancellations, reputational damage, and increased operational disruptions and costs, as experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The clear emerging threat for Carnival Corporation (CCL) is the rise and increasing popularity of **peer-to-peer boat and yacht rental platforms**. These platforms, similar to an "Airbnb for boats," allow individuals to rent various types of vessels, from small motorboats to large yachts, often with or without a captain, for customized durations and itineraries. This model directly threatens traditional cruise lines like Carnival by offering a highly flexible, personalized, and often more private alternative for marine leisure travel, appealing to consumers seeking experiences beyond the structured, large-ship environment.

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Carnival Corporation (CCL) operates within the global cruise tourism market. The addressable markets for their main products and services, primarily cruise vacations, can be sized as follows:

  • Global Cruise Tourism Market: The global cruise tourism market size was valued at USD 86.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 204.93 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.15% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2034. Another source estimates the global cruise market size at USD 9.84 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 25.06 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 12.4% from 2026 to 2033. Furthermore, the global cruises market revenue is projected to reach $46.56 billion by 2026 and $53.49 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 4.81% from 2024 to 2029.
  • North American Cruise Tourism Market: The North America cruise market reached USD 31.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 34.96 billion in 2026. It generated a revenue of USD 4,928.5 million in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2026 to 2033, reaching a projected revenue of US$ 12,625.9 million by 2033. In 2024, the North America cruise tourism market size was USD 2216.48 million and is estimated to reach USD 4329.9 million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 8.8% from 2024 to 2031.
  • European Cruise Tourism Market: The European cruise sector reached USD 2,285.37 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 2,574.47 million in 2025, accelerating toward USD 6,676.32 million by 2033, with a CAGR of 12.65% through the forecast period. Another estimate states the European cruise market was valued at USD 2,285.37 million in 2024, is estimated to reach USD 2,574.47 million in 2025, and is projected to grow to USD 6,676.32 million by 2033 at a CAGR of 12.65% from 2025 to 2033. The Europe cruise market is projected to be valued at USD 2.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 6.5 billion in 2034 at a CAGR of 13.4%.
  • Asia Pacific Cruise Tourism Market: The Asia Pacific market accounted for USD 16.23 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 18.04 billion in 2026. It is projected to record the highest growth rate amongst all regions, at 11.83%, to reach a valuation of USD 16.23 billion in 2025. The Asia Pacific cruise market generated a revenue of USD 1,654.8 million in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.4% from 2026 to 2033, reaching a projected revenue of US$ 4,536.2 million by 2033. The Asia Pacific cruise market is also valued at USD 1.3 billion based on historical analysis.
  • Australian Cruise Tourism Market: The Australia cruise market size reached USD 237.2 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 578.0 million by 2034, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 10.09% during 2026-2034. In 2025, a record 1.45 million Australians took a sea holiday, making Australia the world's fourth-largest cruise source market.

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Carnival Corporation (CCL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

1. Sustained Strong Demand and Increased Ticket Prices

Carnival Corporation anticipates continued strong demand for its cruises, leading to higher occupancy levels and increased ticket prices. The company has reported robust booking trends for future sailings, with 2026 bookings showing double-digit increases and a significant portion of inventory already sold at historically high prices. This strong demand translates into an expected rise in net yields. For the full year 2026, Carnival projects net yields (in constant currency) to increase by approximately 2.75% compared to record 2025 levels.

2. Growth in Onboard Spending and Pre-Cruise Sales

Another significant driver of revenue growth is the continued strength in onboard spending and an acceleration of pre-cruise sales. The company has observed strong onboard revenues, which consistently contribute to overall yield improvement. This trend reflects guests purchasing packages and excursions before boarding, further enhancing revenue generation.

3. Enhanced Commercial Execution and Technology

Carnival's PROPEL strategy, introduced in early 2026, emphasizes "enhanced commercial execution" as a core component for yield expansion. This includes improvements in marketing, revenue management, and the utilization of personalization technology to optimize pricing and guest engagement. These initiatives are designed to convert strong demand into higher returns and earnings growth.

4. Strategic Monetization of Destination Assets

The company's long-term PROPEL framework also highlights the "further monetization of destination assets" as a driver for value creation and revenue growth. This involves leveraging its port destinations and owned and operated facilities, such as hotels, lodges, and private islands like Celebration Key and Half Moon Cay (RelaxAway), to generate additional revenue streams.

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Share Repurchases

  • In March 2026, Carnival Corporation authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2.5 billion, which is expected to begin after shareholder meetings on April 17, 2026.
  • The company sought shareholder approval in January 2026 to authorize Carnival plc to repurchase up to 10% of its outstanding ordinary shares.
  • Carnival Corporation spent $94.0 million on share buybacks in Q4 2021.

Share Issuance

  • Carnival plc shareholders received Carnival Corporation shares on a one-for-one basis as part of the unification of the dual-listed company structure, completed on May 7, 2026.
  • Carnival's shares outstanding increased to 1.402 billion in 2025, a 0.29% increase from 2024, and to 1.398 billion in 2024, a 10.78% increase from 2023.
  • As of February 28, 2026, shares outstanding were 1.392 billion, marking a 6.34% increase year-over-year.

Outbound Investments

  • Princess Cruises, a Carnival brand, announced orders for three new Voyager-class ships, with deliveries scheduled for 2035, 2038, and 2039.
  • Carnival is expanding its exclusive destinations, including Celebration Key and additional "Paradise Collection" projects.

Capital Expenditures

  • Carnival's capital expenditures averaged $4.014 billion for fiscal years ending November 2021 to 2025.
  • For the remainder of 2026, expected capital expenditures include $0.6 billion for newbuilds and $1.8 billion for non-newbuilds.
  • The company has future ship capital expenditure commitments of approximately $1.6 billion in 2027 and $1.9 billion in 2029.

Better Bets vs. Carnival Corporation (CCL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1Is 22.4% Fall In Carnival (CCL) Stock A Buying Opportunity?03/10/2026
2CCL Stock Falls -18% With A 6-day Losing Spree On Geopolitical Fears03/09/2026
3CCL Stock Falls -21% With A 6-day Losing Spree On Mideast Conflict03/07/2026
4CCL Stock Falls -17% In 5-Day Spree On Sector Fears03/06/2026
5Carnival Stock (-7.6%): Mideast Strikes & Oil Spike Hit Cruise Sector03/03/2026
6CCL Stock Surges 11% In A 7-day Spree On Analyst Upgrade and Strong Bookings01/30/2026
7CCL Stock Falls -13% In A 6-day Rout On Institutional Profit-Taking01/21/2026
8Carnival Earnings Notes12/27/2025
9Carnival Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain?12/23/2025
10ARTICLES 
11S&P 500 Movers | Winners: RCL, UAL, CCL | Losers: LYB, DOW, NFLX04/17/2026
12Is Carnival Stock A Trap Or A Missed Opportunity?04/14/2026
13Stronger Bet Than Marriott International Stock: RCL, CCL Deliver More04/09/2026
14S&P 500 Movers | Winners: TER, INTC, CCL | Losers: APA, LYB, WDAY04/08/2026
15Is Carnival Stock Poised for a Rally?03/11/2026
Title
0DASHBOARDS
1Is 22.4% Fall In Carnival (CCL) Stock A Buying Opportunity?
2CCL Stock Falls -18% With A 6-day Losing Spree On Geopolitical Fears
3CCL Stock Falls -21% With A 6-day Losing Spree On Mideast Conflict
4CCL Stock Falls -17% In 5-Day Spree On Sector Fears
5Carnival Stock (-7.6%): Mideast Strikes & Oil Spike Hit Cruise Sector
6CCL Stock Surges 11% In A 7-day Spree On Analyst Upgrade and Strong Bookings
7CCL Stock Falls -13% In A 6-day Rout On Institutional Profit-Taking
8Carnival Earnings Notes
9Carnival Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain?
10ARTICLES
11S&P 500 Movers | Winners: RCL, UAL, CCL | Losers: LYB, DOW, NFLX
12Is Carnival Stock A Trap Or A Missed Opportunity?
13Stronger Bet Than Marriott International Stock: RCL, CCL Deliver More
14S&P 500 Movers | Winners: TER, INTC, CCL | Losers: APA, LYB, WDAY
15Is Carnival Stock Poised for a Rally?

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FUN_4302026_Short_Squeeze04302026FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		0.0%0.0%0.0%
MGM_4242026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V204242026MGMMGM Resorts InternationalInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		-1.5%-1.5%-1.5%
WEN_4242026_Short_Squeeze04242026WENWendy'sSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
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SKY_4022026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04022026SKYChampion HomesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		3.1%3.1%-1.2%
CCL_10312023_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE10312023CCLCarnivalDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		29.3%93.4%-1.4%
CCL_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312020CCLCarnivalDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		14.4%101.5%-39.5%

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Financials

CCLRCLHNCLHWHAHMAMedian
NameCarnival.Royal Ca.Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.Wyndham .Ambition. 
Mkt Price24.64260.29168.7815.5279.741.1952.19
Mkt Cap34.070.315.97.16.0-15.9
Rev LTM26,97618,3877,13110,0311,440-10,031
Op Inc LTM4,5475,1284831,593518-1,593
FCF LTM2,9861,371113-949304-304
FCF 3Y Avg2,0951,363369-656284-369
CFO LTM6,5566,6723262,222350-2,222
CFO 3Y Avg5,7665,5775622,151327-2,151

Growth & Margins

CCLRCLHNCLHWHAHMAMedian
NameCarnival.Royal Ca.Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.Wyndham .Ambition. 
Rev Chg LTM6.1%9.7%7.2%6.5%1.4%-6.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.1%20.5%4.3%19.1%0.0%-19.1%
Rev Chg Q6.1%11.3%1.7%9.6%3.5%-6.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%2.5%0.4%2.1%0.8%-1.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM18.3%19.1%-0.4%10.0%-8.8%-10.0%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg85.6%288.8%6.2%90.3%0.6%-85.6%
Op Mgn LTM16.9%27.9%6.8%15.9%36.0%-16.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.2%25.5%6.3%14.7%37.5%-14.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%0.5%0.0%-0.0%0.2%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM24.3%36.3%4.6%22.2%24.3%-24.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.1%33.3%8.3%22.8%23.1%-23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM11.1%7.5%1.6%-9.5%21.1%-7.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.2%8.1%5.5%-6.8%20.1%-8.1%

Valuation

CCLRCLHNCLHWHAHMAMedian
NameCarnival.Royal Ca.Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.Wyndham .Ambition. 
Mkt Cap34.070.315.97.16.0-15.9
P/S1.33.82.20.74.2-2.2
P/Op Inc7.513.733.04.411.6-11.6
P/EBIT7.712.539.74.814.5-12.5
P/E11.015.7-469.012.531.2-12.5
P/CFO5.210.548.93.217.2-10.5
Total Yield9.1%7.0%0.1%8.0%5.3%-7.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%0.4%0.0%2.1%-0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.5%2.5%2.6%-7.6%4.4%-2.6%
D/E0.80.30.32.10.4-0.4
Net D/E0.70.30.22.10.4-0.4

Returns

CCLRCLHNCLHWHAHMAMedian
NameCarnival.Royal Ca.Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.Wyndham .Ambition. 
1M Rtn-9.8%-2.1%2.9%-22.5%-8.7%-5.6%-7.1%
3M Rtn-22.4%-18.1%2.1%-27.8%3.1%-83.0%-20.3%
6M Rtn-4.9%3.8%11.0%-15.1%11.8%-74.4%-0.5%
12M Rtn5.8%3.4%25.5%-19.5%-8.3%-74.4%-2.4%
3Y Rtn124.2%234.6%51.8%8.2%27.7%-74.4%39.7%
1M Excs Rtn-15.0%-7.3%-2.4%-27.7%-13.9%-10.8%-12.3%
3M Excs Rtn-30.8%-26.5%-6.2%-36.2%-5.3%-91.4%-28.7%
6M Excs Rtn-16.9%-8.5%-0.3%-26.2%1.9%-83.2%-12.7%
12M Excs Rtn-18.1%-20.7%-1.3%-45.9%-32.6%-100.1%-26.6%
3Y Excs Rtn56.9%166.0%-29.7%-68.8%-51.4%-153.5%-40.5%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
North America16,80214,5888,2811,1083,627
Europe7,7106,5353,5317121,790
Cruise Support2552061714268
Tour and Other25526518546110
Total25,02221,59412,1681,9085,595


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
North America2,6051,752-2,170-3,928-5,794
Europe1,347593-1,830-2,617-2,729
Gains on ship sales and impairments39    
Tour and Other1811-64-67-29
Restructuring expenses-21    
Cruise Support-414-399-315-477-313
Total3,5741,957-4,379-7,089-8,865


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
North America30,89228,54727,41325,60625,257
Europe15,04216,52415,31716,08816,505
Cruise Support2,7323,6678,46111,01411,135
Tour and Other390382512637696
Total49,05649,12051,70353,34553,593


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$24.64 
Market Cap ($ Bil)34.0 
First Trading Date01/05/1989 
Distance from 52W High-27.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$26.13$28.57
DMA Trendindeterminatedown
Distance from DMA-5.7%-13.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility57.6%45.9%
Downside Capture327.94214.73
Upside Capture134.02163.58
Correlation (SPY)72.5%59.2%
CCL Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta3.902.912.772.352.281.86
Up Beta4.785.044.753.433.281.94
Down Beta10.032.973.012.332.131.72
Up Capture137%121%178%212%264%1102%
Bmk +ve Days15223166141428
Stock +ve Days10182861128383
Down Capture533%247%195%174%153%111%
Bmk -ve Days4183056108321
Stock -ve Days12253664122364

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with CCL
CCL7.7%45.7%0.30-
Sector ETF (XLY)8.7%18.1%0.3257.9%
Equity (SPY)27.4%12.1%1.7159.3%
Gold (GLD)42.5%26.8%1.304.5%
Commodities (DBC)45.4%18.5%1.88-38.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)11.5%13.5%0.5641.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-23.7%41.8%-0.5416.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with CCL
CCL-1.2%55.3%0.19-
Sector ETF (XLY)6.8%23.8%0.2562.3%
Equity (SPY)13.6%17.1%0.6359.6%
Gold (GLD)19.4%17.9%0.883.5%
Commodities (DBC)10.9%19.4%0.454.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.9%18.8%0.0643.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.2%55.9%0.3425.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with CCL
CCL-5.4%57.4%0.15-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.6%22.0%0.5257.7%
Equity (SPY)15.5%17.9%0.7455.5%
Gold (GLD)13.0%16.0%0.67-2.1%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%17.9%0.3814.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2147.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.4%66.9%1.0615.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity43.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 41520262.3%
Average Daily Volume23.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,379.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
3/27/2026-4.3%1.4%5.9%
12/19/20259.8%8.3%-0.3%
9/29/2025-4.0%-6.7%-3.9%
6/24/20256.9%17.0%23.9%
3/21/2025-1.2%-2.0%-18.7%
12/20/20246.4%-0.4%1.7%
9/30/2024-0.3%-2.8%18.2%
6/25/20248.7%8.1%11.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive12119
# Negative111214
Median Positive6.3%8.2%11.0%
Median Negative-4.0%-6.5%-8.5%
Max Positive12.4%19.2%32.3%
Max Negative-23.3%-23.8%-22.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
02/28/202603/27/202610-Q
11/30/202501/27/202610-K
08/31/202509/29/202510-Q
05/31/202506/26/202510-Q
02/28/202503/25/202510-Q
11/30/202401/27/202510-K
08/31/202409/30/202410-Q
05/31/202406/27/202410-Q
02/29/202403/27/202410-Q
11/30/202301/26/202410-K
08/31/202309/29/202310-Q
05/31/202306/28/202310-Q
02/28/202303/29/202310-Q
11/30/202201/27/202310-K
08/31/202209/30/202210-Q
05/31/202206/29/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 3/27/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Adjusted EBITDA 7.19 Bil -5.8% LoweredGuidance: 7.63 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Net Income 3.07 Bil -12.3% LoweredGuidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPS 2.21 -10.9% LoweredGuidance: 2.48 for 2026
2026 Dividends 800.00 Mil    
2026 Newbuild Capital Expenditures 600.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 600.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures 2.40 Bil -22.6% LoweredGuidance: 3.10 Bil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 12/19/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Net Yields Growth 1.6% -62.8% Lower NewActual: 4.3% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel per ALBD Growth 5.9% 84.4% Higher NewActual: 3.2% for Q4 2025
2026 Adjusted Net Income 3.50 Bil 19.7% Higher NewActual: 2.92 Bil for 2025
2026 Net Yields Growth 2.5% -52.8%-2.8%Lower NewActual: 5.3% for 2025
2026 Adjusted Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel per ALBD Growth 3.25% -1.5%-0.0%Lower NewActual: 3.3% for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDA 7.63 Bil 8.2% Higher NewActual: 7.05 Bil for 2025
2026 Adjusted EPS 2.48 15.9% Higher NewActual: 2.14 for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures 3.10 Bil    
2026 Adjusted Net Income Growth 12.0%    

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Subotnick, Stuart DirectSell512202625.22053,339,792Form
2Band, Sir Jonathon DirectSell402202626.1911,988313,9661,377,629Form
3Band, Sir Jonathon DirectSell402202624.98123001,613,571Form
4Bernstein, DavidCFO & CAODirectSell212202633.22361,79012,016,8913,722,350Form
5Band, Sir Jonathon DirectSell805202529.7512,500371,9121,916,269Form

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