Carnival (CCL)
Market Price (10/14/2025): $28.04 | Market Cap: $36.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Carnival (CCL)
Market Price (10/14/2025): $28.04Market Cap: $36.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 7.9% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 5.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 7.9% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 5.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CCL Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
CCL Return | -57% | -7% | -60% | 130% | 34% | 13% | -45% |
Peers Return | -10% | -10% | -31% | 74% | 11% | -4% | 4% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
CCL Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 48% | 50% | 43% | 60% | 55% | 56% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
CCL Max Drawdown | -84% | -24% | -68% | -1% | -25% | -34% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -25% | -43% | -5% | -30% | -31% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RCL, NCLH, UOKA, BKNG, ABNB. See CCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/13/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | CCL | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -79.6% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 390.8% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 1051 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -84.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 551.2% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -44.2% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 79.3% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -70.7% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 241.7% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 2426 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Carnival's stock fell -79.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -79.6% loss requires a 390.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Carnival (CCL)
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to CCL and Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -7.6% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -6.1% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -11.7% | -11.7% | -11.7% |
10312023 | CCL | Carnival | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 29.3% | 93.4% | -1.4% |
03312020 | CCL | Carnival | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.4% | 101.5% | -39.5% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -7.6% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -6.1% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -11.7% | -11.7% | -11.7% |
10312023 | CCL | Carnival | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 29.3% | 93.4% | -1.4% |
03312020 | CCL | Carnival | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.4% | 101.5% | -39.5% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carnival
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 73.47 |
Mkt Cap | 73.1 |
Rev LTM | 17,184 |
Op Inc LTM | 4,309 |
FCF LTM | 3,587 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 1,608 |
CFO LTM | 5,611 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 4,549 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 45.9% |
Rev Chg Q | 10.4% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
Op Mgn LTM | 22.5% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 33.4% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 73.1 |
P/S | 4.8 |
P/EBIT | 16.7 |
P/E | 23.1 |
P/CFO | 14.5 |
Total Yield | 4.7% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
D/E | 0.2 |
Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -6.2% |
3M Rtn | -6.5% |
6M Rtn | 28.5% |
12M Rtn | 11.0% |
3Y Rtn | 147.9% |
1M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
3M Excs Rtn | -11.7% |
6M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
12M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 64.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | 14,588 | 8,281 | 1,108 | 3,627 | 13,612 |
Europe | 6,535 | 3,531 | 712 | 1,790 | 6,650 |
Tour and Other | 265 | 185 | 46 | 110 | 390 |
Cruise Support | 206 | 171 | 42 | 68 | 173 |
Total | 21,594 | 12,168 | 1,908 | 5,595 | 20,825 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | 1,752 | -2,170 | -3,928 | -5,794 | 2,451 |
Europe | 593 | -1,830 | -2,617 | -2,729 | 1,115 |
Tour and Other | 11 | -64 | -67 | -29 | 56 |
Cruise Support | -399 | -315 | -477 | -313 | -347 |
Total | 1,957 | -4,379 | -7,089 | -8,865 | 3,275 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | 28,547 | 27,413 | 25,606 | 25,257 | 27,102 |
Europe | 16,524 | 15,317 | 16,088 | 16,505 | 15,473 |
Cruise Support | 3,667 | 8,461 | 11,014 | 11,135 | 1,861 |
Tour and Other | 382 | 512 | 637 | 696 | 623 |
Total | 49,120 | 51,703 | 53,345 | 53,593 | 45,059 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
9/29/2025 | -4.0% | -6.7% | |
6/24/2025 | 6.9% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
3/21/2025 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -18.7% |
12/20/2024 | 6.4% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
9/30/2024 | -0.3% | -2.8% | 18.2% |
6/25/2024 | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.0% |
3/27/2024 | 0.9% | -9.9% | -10.9% |
12/21/2023 | 6.2% | 3.3% | -10.1% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 13 | 10 | 10 |
# Negative | 10 | 13 | 13 |
Median Positive | 6.2% | 9.1% | 13.5% |
Median Negative | -3.2% | -6.7% | -9.9% |
Max Positive | 12.4% | 19.2% | 32.3% |
Max Negative | -23.3% | -23.8% | -22.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
8312025 | 9292025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
5312025 | 6262025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
2282025 | 3252025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
11302024 | 1272025 | 10-K 11/30/2024 |
8312024 | 9302024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
5312024 | 6272024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
2292024 | 3272024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
11302023 | 1262024 | 10-K 11/30/2023 |
8312023 | 9292023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
5312023 | 6282023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
2282023 | 3292023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
11302022 | 1272023 | 10-K 11/30/2022 |
8312022 | 9302022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
5312022 | 6292022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
2282022 | 3282022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
11302021 | 1272022 | 10-K 11/30/2021 |
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