Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $29.39 | Market Cap: $40.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $29.39Market Cap: $40.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 7.2% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% Key risksCCL key risks include [1] a substantial debt load and high financial leverage that have placed the company in a financial "distress zone". |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 7.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% |
| Key risksCCL key risks include [1] a substantial debt load and high financial leverage that have placed the company in a financial "distress zone". |
Qualitative Assessment
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Carnival Corporation (CCL) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent headwind from higher fuel prices impacting full-year profitability outlook. Carnival Corporation's fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on February 28, 2026, saw strong operating results and exceeded guidance, yet the company's full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance was set at approximately $2.21, below the $2.38 consensus expectation. This revised outlook incorporated a significant $0.38 per-share headwind from higher fuel prices, primarily due to recent geopolitical events, which management estimated as a more than $500 million impact that partially offset operational improvements. This concern over fuel costs continued into fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on May 31, 2026, with analysts forecasting a 2.9% year-over-year decline in Q2 EPS to $0.34, despite an anticipated 5.7% increase in revenue, raising questions about profit margin sustainability.
2. Significant data breach raising concerns about litigation and reputational damage. Carnival Corporation disclosed a data breach that commenced around April 10, 2026, where an unauthorized actor accessed a limited portion of its IT system. This incident affected nearly 6 million individuals. Wider media coverage of the breach on June 10, 2026, contributed to a 6.27% single-day decline in the stock, intensifying worries about potential litigation costs and adverse effects on the company's reputation.
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Carnival Corporation (CCL) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent headwind from higher fuel prices impacting full-year profitability outlook. Carnival Corporation's fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on February 28, 2026, saw strong operating results and exceeded guidance, yet the company's full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance was set at approximately $2.21, below the $2.38 consensus expectation. This revised outlook incorporated a significant $0.38 per-share headwind from higher fuel prices, primarily due to recent geopolitical events, which management estimated as a more than $500 million impact that partially offset operational improvements. This concern over fuel costs continued into fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on May 31, 2026, with analysts forecasting a 2.9% year-over-year decline in Q2 EPS to $0.34, despite an anticipated 5.7% increase in revenue, raising questions about profit margin sustainability.
2. Significant data breach raising concerns about litigation and reputational damage. Carnival Corporation disclosed a data breach that commenced around April 10, 2026, where an unauthorized actor accessed a limited portion of its IT system. This incident affected nearly 6 million individuals. Wider media coverage of the breach on June 10, 2026, contributed to a 6.27% single-day decline in the stock, intensifying worries about potential litigation costs and adverse effects on the company's reputation.
3. Downward revisions of analyst EPS estimates despite strong demand indicators. While Carnival reported record bookings for 2026, up double digits with customer deposits reaching a first-quarter record of nearly $8 billion, analyst sentiment shifted negatively regarding earnings potential. Leading up to the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, EPS estimates saw a substantial downward revision of 26.1% over the preceding 90 days, moving from a consensus of $0.46 to $0.34. This widespread reduction in profit expectations from analysts, despite robust demand for cruises, indicated underlying concerns about the company's ability to translate revenue growth into proportional earnings growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.7% change in CCL stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.36 | 30.19 | -3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,621 | 26,976 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.4% | 11.5% | 10.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.9 | 13.4 | -10.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,315 | 1,379 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CCL | -3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 72.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 80.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.4% change in CCL stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.51 | 30.19 | 18.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,229 | 26,976 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 11.5% | 14.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.7 | 13.4 | 6.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,313 | 1,379 | -4.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CCL | 18.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 64.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.4% | 66.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.4% change in CCL stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.97 | 30.19 | 31.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,425 | 26,976 | 6.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.1% | 11.5% | 42.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.7 | 13.4 | -8.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,309 | 1,379 | -5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CCL | 31.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.7% | 58.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.4% | 59.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 171.7% change in CCL stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 80.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.11 | 30.19 | 171.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,979 | 26,976 | 80.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 1.5 | 65.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,260 | 1,379 | -8.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 171.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CCL | 171.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.1% | 59.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 55.4% | 60.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CCL Return | -7% | -60% | 130% | 34% | 23% | 2% | 44% |
| Peers Return | 12% | -26% | 81% | 47% | 20% | 18% | 214% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CCL Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 50% | 60% | 67% | 60% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CCL Max Drawdown | -48% | -73% | -43% | -27% | -42% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -46% | -24% | -20% | -35% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RCL, NCLH, VIK, MAR, HLT. See CCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -70.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 235.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 736 days | 427 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Carnival Corporation's stock fell -37.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 58.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -70.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 235.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 736 days | 427 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 186.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 522 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Carnival Corporation's stock fell -37.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 58.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Carnival Corporation (CCL) is the world's largest leisure travel company, primarily operating a vast fleet of cruise ships across the globe. It offers vacation experiences to millions of passengers annually, visiting approximately 700 ports with its 87 ships and 223,000 lower berths.
The company's core product is cruise vacations, delivered through a diverse portfolio of nine distinct and internationally recognized brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, AIDA Cruises, Costa Cruises, and Cunard, among others. Beyond cruises, Carnival also provides port destinations and related services, and in some regions, it owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches to complement its travel offerings.
Carnival reaches its primary customers, leisure travelers seeking vacation experiences, through multiple channels such as travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and its own websites. The company has a significant global presence, operating in key markets including the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and Asia, serving an international clientele.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Carnival Corporation (CCL):
- The Marriott or Hilton of the seas.
- Like Club Med, but as a fleet of global, multi-brand floating resorts.
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- Cruises: Providing leisure travel experiences on ships to various global destinations under multiple brand names.
- Land-Based Travel & Hospitality: Operating hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches, often complementing cruise vacations.
- Port & Onboard Services: Managing port destinations and offering a range of amenities and activities to enhance the overall cruise experience.
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Carnival Corporation (CCL) primarily sells its cruise vacations directly to individual consumers, although sales are often facilitated through travel agents, tour operators, and vacation planners.
Based on its diverse portfolio of cruise brands, Carnival Corporation serves the following major categories of individual customers:
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Mass Market and Family Travelers
This category includes individuals and families seeking an accessible, fun, and often value-oriented cruise experience. Brands like Carnival Cruise Line, AIDA Cruises, and Costa Cruises cater to this segment, offering a wide array of entertainment, dining, and activities designed to appeal to a broad demographic, including multi-generational families and younger adults.
-
Premium and Upscale Travelers
This segment comprises individuals and couples who desire a more refined, destination-focused, or culturally enriched cruise vacation. These customers often prioritize enhanced service, sophisticated amenities, and diverse itineraries. Brands such as Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and P&O Cruises (UK/Australia) typically serve this customer base, which may include affluent retirees, empty-nesters, or professional couples.
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Luxury and Ultra-Luxury Travelers
This category targets high-net-worth individuals who seek an exclusive, highly personalized, and often all-inclusive cruise experience. These travelers expect bespoke service, gourmet dining, lavish accommodations, and unique, often exotic, itineraries on smaller, more intimate ships. Seabourn and Cunard (particularly for its higher-tier offerings and transatlantic voyages) cater to this discerning clientele.
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- Fincantieri S.p.A. (FINCANTIERI.MI)
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Josh Weinstein, Chief Executive Officer
A 20-year veteran of Carnival Corporation, Josh Weinstein assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer in August 2022. Prior to his current position, he served as Chief Operations Officer of Carnival Corporation from June 2020 to July 2022, overseeing critical operational functions including global maritime, global ports and destinations, global sourcing, global IT, and global auditing. From July 2017 to 2020, he was President of Carnival UK, responsible for P&O Cruises and Cunard. Weinstein also served as Treasurer for Carnival Corporation from 2007 to 2017. Before joining Carnival Corporation, he worked as a corporate attorney.
David Bernstein, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein has been the Chief Financial Officer of Carnival Corporation since July 2007 and Chief Accounting Officer since April 2016. He joined Carnival Corporation & plc in July 2003 as Vice President and Treasurer. Before this, he served as Chief Financial Officer for Carnival's operating units Cunard Line and Seabourn Cruise Line from June 1998 to July 2003. Earlier in his career, he spent seven years at Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., where he held various financial roles including Assistant Controller, Assistant Treasurer, and Director of Corporate Planning.
Christine Duffy, President, Carnival Cruise Line
Christine Duffy has served as the President of Carnival Cruise Line, the flagship brand of Carnival Corporation, since 2015. Prior to her time at Carnival, Duffy was the President and CEO of the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA). Before joining CLIA, she spent a decade at Maritz Travel Company, serving as President and CEO for six years and becoming the first female president in the company's history. Duffy began her career as a travel agent and ascended to the role of president at McGettigan Travel, a company that was later acquired by Maritz Travel Co.
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The key risks to Carnival Corporation (CCL) are multifaceted, stemming from its capital-intensive nature and reliance on discretionary consumer spending.
1. Economic Slowdown and Consumer Discretionary Spending
Carnival Corporation is highly susceptible to economic downturns, inflation, and shifts in consumer confidence, as cruise vacations are a discretionary expense. A recessionary environment or persistent inflationary pressures can lead to reduced demand for cruise bookings and pressure on ticket prices, directly impacting the company's revenue streams and profitability.
2. High Debt Burden and Interest Rate Risk
The company carries a substantial debt load, largely accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Servicing this debt requires significant cash, and Carnival's ability to generate sufficient cash flow is crucial. Rising interest rates pose an additional risk, as a significant portion of its debt is floating rate, which could further strain its financial health and limit investment in growth initiatives.
3. Operational Risks, including Fuel Costs, Geopolitical Events, and Health Crises
Carnival faces inherent operational risks, including volatility in fuel prices, which are a major expense and can significantly impact profit margins. Geopolitical instability and conflicts can disrupt travel patterns, alter itineraries, and increase operational costs. Furthermore, the cruise industry remains vulnerable to public health crises, such as pandemics or localized outbreaks on ships, which can lead to cancellations, reputational damage, and increased operational disruptions and costs, as experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The clear emerging threat for Carnival Corporation (CCL) is the rise and increasing popularity of **peer-to-peer boat and yacht rental platforms**. These platforms, similar to an "Airbnb for boats," allow individuals to rent various types of vessels, from small motorboats to large yachts, often with or without a captain, for customized durations and itineraries. This model directly threatens traditional cruise lines like Carnival by offering a highly flexible, personalized, and often more private alternative for marine leisure travel, appealing to consumers seeking experiences beyond the structured, large-ship environment.
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Carnival Corporation (CCL) operates within the global cruise tourism market. The addressable markets for their main products and services, primarily cruise vacations, can be sized as follows:
- Global Cruise Tourism Market: The global cruise tourism market size was valued at USD 86.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 204.93 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.15% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2034. Another source estimates the global cruise market size at USD 9.84 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 25.06 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 12.4% from 2026 to 2033. Furthermore, the global cruises market revenue is projected to reach $46.56 billion by 2026 and $53.49 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 4.81% from 2024 to 2029.
- North American Cruise Tourism Market: The North America cruise market reached USD 31.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 34.96 billion in 2026. It generated a revenue of USD 4,928.5 million in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2026 to 2033, reaching a projected revenue of US$ 12,625.9 million by 2033. In 2024, the North America cruise tourism market size was USD 2216.48 million and is estimated to reach USD 4329.9 million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 8.8% from 2024 to 2031.
- European Cruise Tourism Market: The European cruise sector reached USD 2,285.37 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 2,574.47 million in 2025, accelerating toward USD 6,676.32 million by 2033, with a CAGR of 12.65% through the forecast period. Another estimate states the European cruise market was valued at USD 2,285.37 million in 2024, is estimated to reach USD 2,574.47 million in 2025, and is projected to grow to USD 6,676.32 million by 2033 at a CAGR of 12.65% from 2025 to 2033. The Europe cruise market is projected to be valued at USD 2.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 6.5 billion in 2034 at a CAGR of 13.4%.
- Asia Pacific Cruise Tourism Market: The Asia Pacific market accounted for USD 16.23 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 18.04 billion in 2026. It is projected to record the highest growth rate amongst all regions, at 11.83%, to reach a valuation of USD 16.23 billion in 2025. The Asia Pacific cruise market generated a revenue of USD 1,654.8 million in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.4% from 2026 to 2033, reaching a projected revenue of US$ 4,536.2 million by 2033. The Asia Pacific cruise market is also valued at USD 1.3 billion based on historical analysis.
- Australian Cruise Tourism Market: The Australia cruise market size reached USD 237.2 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 578.0 million by 2034, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 10.09% during 2026-2034. In 2025, a record 1.45 million Australians took a sea holiday, making Australia the world's fourth-largest cruise source market.
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1. Sustained Strong Demand and Increased Ticket Prices
Carnival Corporation anticipates continued strong demand for its cruises, leading to higher occupancy levels and increased ticket prices. The company has reported robust booking trends for future sailings, with 2026 bookings showing double-digit increases and a significant portion of inventory already sold at historically high prices. This strong demand translates into an expected rise in net yields. For the full year 2026, Carnival projects net yields (in constant currency) to increase by approximately 2.75% compared to record 2025 levels.2. Growth in Onboard Spending and Pre-Cruise Sales
Another significant driver of revenue growth is the continued strength in onboard spending and an acceleration of pre-cruise sales. The company has observed strong onboard revenues, which consistently contribute to overall yield improvement. This trend reflects guests purchasing packages and excursions before boarding, further enhancing revenue generation.3. Enhanced Commercial Execution and Technology
Carnival's PROPEL strategy, introduced in early 2026, emphasizes "enhanced commercial execution" as a core component for yield expansion. This includes improvements in marketing, revenue management, and the utilization of personalization technology to optimize pricing and guest engagement. These initiatives are designed to convert strong demand into higher returns and earnings growth.4. Strategic Monetization of Destination Assets
The company's long-term PROPEL framework also highlights the "further monetization of destination assets" as a driver for value creation and revenue growth. This involves leveraging its port destinations and owned and operated facilities, such as hotels, lodges, and private islands like Celebration Key and Half Moon Cay (RelaxAway), to generate additional revenue streams.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In March 2026, Carnival Corporation authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2.5 billion, which is expected to begin after shareholder meetings on April 17, 2026.
- The company sought shareholder approval in January 2026 to authorize Carnival plc to repurchase up to 10% of its outstanding ordinary shares.
- Carnival Corporation spent $94.0 million on share buybacks in Q4 2021.
Share Issuance
- Carnival plc shareholders received Carnival Corporation shares on a one-for-one basis as part of the unification of the dual-listed company structure, completed on May 7, 2026.
- Carnival's shares outstanding increased to 1.402 billion in 2025, a 0.29% increase from 2024, and to 1.398 billion in 2024, a 10.78% increase from 2023.
- As of February 28, 2026, shares outstanding were 1.392 billion, marking a 6.34% increase year-over-year.
Outbound Investments
- Princess Cruises, a Carnival brand, announced orders for three new Voyager-class ships, with deliveries scheduled for 2035, 2038, and 2039.
- Carnival is expanding its exclusive destinations, including Celebration Key and additional "Paradise Collection" projects.
Capital Expenditures
- Carnival's capital expenditures averaged $4.014 billion for fiscal years ending November 2021 to 2025.
- For the remainder of 2026, expected capital expenditures include $0.6 billion for newbuilds and $1.8 billion for non-newbuilds.
- The company has future ship capital expenditure commitments of approximately $1.6 billion in 2027 and $1.9 billion in 2029.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 204.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 61.6 |
| Rev LTM | 15,334 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,546 |
| FCF LTM | 1,745 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,644 |
| CFO LTM | 3,069 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,605 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 85.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 61.6 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.1 |
| P/EBIT | 19.2 |
| P/E | 27.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 141.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 58.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 17,604 | 16,802 | 14,588 | 8,281 | 1,108 |
| Europe | 8,467 | 7,710 | 6,535 | 3,531 | 712 |
| Cruise Support | 309 | 255 | 206 | 171 | 42 |
| Tour and Other | 241 | 255 | 265 | 185 | 46 |
| Total | 26,621 | 25,022 | 21,594 | 12,168 | 1,908 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 3,233 | 2,605 | 1,752 | -2,170 | -3,928 |
| Europe | 1,610 | 1,347 | 593 | -1,830 | -2,617 |
| Gains on ship sales and impairments | 110 | 39 | |||
| Tour and Other | 22 | 18 | 11 | -64 | -67 |
| Other | -10 | ||||
| Restructuring expenses | -13 | -21 | |||
| Cruise Support | -468 | -414 | -399 | -315 | -477 |
| Total | 4,484 | 3,574 | 1,957 | -4,379 | -7,089 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 31,400 | 30,892 | 28,547 | 27,413 | 25,606 |
| Europe | 16,030 | 15,042 | 16,524 | 15,317 | 16,088 |
| Cruise Support | 3,836 | 2,732 | 3,667 | 8,461 | 11,014 |
| Tour and Other | 421 | 390 | 382 | 512 | 637 |
| Total | 51,687 | 49,056 | 49,120 | 51,703 | 53,345 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $30.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 41.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/05/1989 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $27.15 | $28.14 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.2% | 7.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.7% | 47.6% |
| Downside Capture | 227.77 | 195.12 |
| Upside Capture | 189.82 | 171.95 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 70.5% | 58.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.43 | 3.88 | 3.02 | 2.70 | 2.27 | 1.86 |
| Up Beta | 6.47 | 5.85 | 5.06 | 4.54 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
| Down Beta | 4.22 | 4.21 | 2.88 | 2.30 | 2.15 | 1.74 |
| Up Capture | 188% | 152% | 156% | 237% | 231% | 929% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 29 | 61 | 126 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 283% | 400% | 254% | 187% | 158% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 34 | 63 | 123 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL | 29.4% | 47.4% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 10.1% | 18.5% | 0.38 | 60.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.1% | 12.4% | 1.59 | 58.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 14.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.5% | 18.8% | 0.77 | -40.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.8% | 13.8% | 0.57 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.2% | 42.5% | -1.09 | 16.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL | 1.2% | 55.5% | 0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 23.9% | 0.24 | 62.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 59.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.28 | 2.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 43.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 54.1% | 0.37 | 26.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL | -3.1% | 57.6% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 58.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 55.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.1% | 0.62 | -1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.0% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 47.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.9% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 15.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/23/2026 | 0.0% | ||
| 3/27/2026 | -4.3% | 1.4% | 5.9% |
| 12/19/2025 | 9.8% | 8.3% | -0.3% |
| 9/29/2025 | -4.0% | -6.7% | -3.9% |
| 6/24/2025 | 6.9% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| 3/21/2025 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -18.7% |
| 12/20/2024 | 6.4% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 9/30/2024 | -0.3% | -2.8% | 18.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -6.5% | -8.5% |
| Max Positive | 12.4% | 19.2% | 32.3% |
| Max Negative | -23.3% | -23.8% | -22.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/23/2026 | 0.0% | ||
| 3/27/2026 | -4.3% | 1.4% | 5.9% |
| 12/19/2025 | 9.8% | 8.3% | -0.3% |
| 9/29/2025 | -4.0% | -6.7% | -3.9% |
| 6/24/2025 | 6.9% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| 3/21/2025 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -18.7% |
| 12/20/2024 | 6.4% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 9/30/2024 | -0.3% | -2.8% | 18.2% |
| 6/25/2024 | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.0% |
| 3/27/2024 | 0.9% | -9.9% | -10.9% |
| 12/21/2023 | 6.2% | 3.3% | -10.1% |
| 9/29/2023 | -5.0% | -7.9% | -22.9% |
| 6/26/2023 | -7.6% | 19.2% | 10.4% |
| 3/27/2023 | -4.8% | 10.0% | -2.9% |
| 12/21/2022 | 4.7% | -5.3% | 32.3% |
| 9/30/2022 | -23.3% | -23.8% | -2.4% |
| 6/24/2022 | 12.4% | -10.4% | -4.9% |
| 3/22/2022 | -0.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% |
| 12/20/2021 | 3.4% | 14.6% | 16.1% |
| 9/24/2021 | 3.0% | 1.3% | -9.7% |
| 6/24/2021 | -2.5% | -6.4% | -22.0% |
| 4/7/2021 | 1.4% | -2.7% | -7.3% |
| 10/8/2020 | -2.4% | -12.6% | -11.3% |
| 7/10/2020 | 10.8% | 8.2% | -2.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -6.5% | -8.5% |
| Max Positive | 12.4% | 19.2% | 32.3% |
| Max Negative | -23.3% | -23.8% | -22.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2021 | 01/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2021 | 09/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2021 | 06/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2021 | 04/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2020 | 01/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2020 | 10/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2020 | 07/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2020 | 04/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2019 | 01/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2019 | 09/26/2019 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2019 | 06/24/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/23/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 6/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.88 Bil | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted net income | 1.86 Bil | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted earnings per share | 1.35 | ||||||
| 2026 Net yields | 0.03 | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD | 0.04 | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 7.11 Bil | -1.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 7.19 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted net income | 3.07 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.07 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per share | 2.22 | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.21 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 3/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 7.19 Bil | -5.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 7.63 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 3.07 Bil | -12.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 2.21 | -10.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.48 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Dividends | 800.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Newbuild Capital Expenditures | 600.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 600.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.40 Bil | -22.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.10 Bil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/12/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Subotnick, Stuart | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 25.22 | 0 | 5 | 3,339,792 | Form | |
| 2 | Band, Sir Jonathon | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 26.19 | 11,988 | 313,966 | 1,377,629 | Form | |
| 3 | Band, Sir Jonathon | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 24.98 | 12 | 300 | 1,613,571 | Form | |
| 4 | Bernstein, David | CFO & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 33.22 | 361,790 | 12,016,891 | 3,722,350 | Form |
| 5 | Band, Sir Jonathon | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 29.75 | 12,500 | 371,912 | 1,916,269 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Subotnick, Stuart | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 25.22 | 0 | 5 | 3,339,792 | Form | |
| 2 | Band, Sir Jonathon | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 26.19 | 11,988 | 313,966 | 1,377,629 | Form | |
| 3 | Band, Sir Jonathon | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 24.98 | 12 | 300 | 1,613,571 | Form | |
| 4 | Bernstein, David | CFO & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 33.22 | 361,790 | 12,016,891 | 3,722,350 | Form |
| 5 | Band, Sir Jonathon | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 29.75 | 12,500 | 371,912 | 1,916,269 | Form | |
| 6 | Bernstein, David | CFO & CAO | Direct | Sell | 5162025 | 22.84 | 105,010 | 2,398,533 | 3,198,951 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Resources |
| Skift |
| Hotel News Now |
| Cruise Industry News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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