Citigroup (C)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $105.62 | Market Cap: $187.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Citigroup (C)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $105.62Market Cap: $187.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -80%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -87% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -119% | Key risksC key risks include [1] persistent failures to remediate deficiencies in its enterprise-wide risk management and internal controls, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 14% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -119% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -80%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -87% |
| Key risksC key risks include [1] persistent failures to remediate deficiencies in its enterprise-wide risk management and internal controls, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Citigroup's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Surpassed Adjusted Expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.81, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.67-$1.70. Key drivers included a 14% increase in net interest income (NII) to $15.67 billion, which was $815 million higher than anticipated. Additionally, the provision for credit losses was lower than expected, coming in at $2.2 billion, approximately $330 million below forecasts, signaling management's optimism regarding credit quality.
2. Continued Progress in Strategic Transformation and Capital Management. Citigroup demonstrated tangible progress in its multi-year restructuring, including the divestiture of a 25% stake in Banamex in December 2024 and securing approval to sell its Russia-based banking unit, AO Citibank. These actions are designed to streamline operations, free up capital, and focus on core businesses. The company also committed over $17.5 billion to common shareholders in 2025, including $13 billion in share buybacks. This was supported by a robust Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital ratio of 13.2% at the end of 2025, exceeding regulatory requirements by 160 basis points.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.5% change in C stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 103.06 | 105.69 | 2.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 84,827 | 85,027 | 0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.3% | 16.8% | -2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.8 | 13.1 | 2.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,820 | 1,773 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| C | 2.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 65.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | -8.3% | 79.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.7% change in C stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 95.50 | 105.69 | 10.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 82,891 | 85,027 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.1% | 16.8% | -1.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 13.1 | 4.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,856 | 1,773 | 4.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| C | 10.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 60.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -9.1% | 79.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.6% change in C stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.92 | 105.69 | 35.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 80,672 | 85,027 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.7% | 16.8% | 7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.6 | 13.1 | 12.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,888 | 1,773 | 6.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| C | 35.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 74.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.3% | 83.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 131.5% change in C stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 119.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.66 | 105.69 | 131.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 74,463 | 85,027 | 14.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.9% | 16.8% | -15.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.0 | 13.1 | 119.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,937 | 1,773 | 9.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 131.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| C | 131.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 63.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 43.1% | 79.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| C Return | 1% | -22% | 19% | 42% | 70% | -6% | 113% |
| Peers Return | 47% | -13% | 18% | 43% | 41% | -11% | 169% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| C Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 43% | 53% | 65% | 72% | 13% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| C Max Drawdown | -5% | -31% | -13% | -1% | -17% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -27% | -14% | -5% | -17% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, GS. See C Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | C | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 448 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,767 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 374 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5311.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, GS
In The Past
Citigroup's stock fell -52.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -52.1% loss requires a 108.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Citigroup (C)
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1. Like JPMorgan Chase, offering both everyday consumer banking and sophisticated global investment banking services.
2. A global Bank of America, providing a full spectrum of financial services to individuals, businesses, and governments across continents.
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- Retail Banking: Offers traditional banking services like checking and savings accounts to individual consumers.
- Credit Cards: Issues Citi-branded credit cards and provides related consumer lending services.
- Consumer Lending & Investments: Provides various loans and investment services tailored for retail customers.
- Investment Banking & Advisory: Offers advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, and other strategic financial transactions.
- Sales & Trading: Facilitates transactions in global financial markets, including fixed income, equities, and foreign exchange.
- Corporate Lending: Provides loans and credit facilities to corporations, institutions, and public sector clients.
- Private Banking: Delivers comprehensive wealth management, lending, and advisory services to high-net-worth individuals.
- Treasury & Trade Solutions: Offers cash management, payments, and trade finance solutions for corporate and institutional clients.
- Securities Services: Provides custody, administration, and clearing services for institutional clients' securities.
- Prime Brokerage: Offers a suite of services including financing, securities lending, and trade execution for hedge funds and professional investors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Citigroup serves a diverse range of customers across its Global Consumer Banking (GCB) and Institutional Clients Group (ICG) segments. Based on the company description, particularly the extensive retail banking operations and credit card services offered globally, a significant portion of its customer base consists of individuals. Therefore, the major customer categories are:
- Retail Customers: This category includes individuals who utilize traditional banking services, Citi-branded credit cards, Citi retail services, lending products, and basic investment services through Citigroup's network of branches and electronic delivery systems. This segment forms a large and widespread part of Citigroup's consumer operations.
- Corporate and Institutional Clients: This category encompasses companies, other financial institutions, and public sector entities (governments and government-related organizations). These clients engage Citigroup for wholesale banking products and services such as corporate lending, investment banking and advisory services, fixed income and equity sales and trading, foreign exchange, cash management, trade finance, and securities services.
- High-Net-Worth Clients: These are affluent individuals who receive specialized private banking, wealth management, and sophisticated investment services from Citigroup's Institutional Clients Group.
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Jane Fraser, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Jane Fraser has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Citigroup since March 2021, making her the first woman to lead a major U.S. bank. She also holds the position of Chair of the Board. Fraser joined Citigroup in 2004. Her career at Citi includes significant leadership roles such as President and CEO of the Global Consumer Bank, CEO of Citigroup Latin America, CEO of Citi Private Bank, and Global Head of Strategy and Mergers and Acquisitions. Before joining Citigroup, Fraser worked as a mergers and acquisitions analyst at Goldman Sachs in London and was a partner at McKinsey & Company. She co-authored the book "Race for the World: Strategies to Build a Great Global Firm" in 1999.
Gonzalo Luchetti, Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Luchetti is the Chief Financial Officer of Citigroup. He also oversees U.S. Personal Banking. Prior to becoming CFO, Luchetti served as the Head of U.S. Personal Banking. He has held various leadership roles across Citigroup's consumer and institutional businesses.
Mark Mason, Executive Vice Chair and Senior Executive Advisor
Mark Mason is currently Citigroup's Executive Vice Chair and Senior Executive Advisor, supporting the company's strategic initiatives. He previously served as Citi's Chief Financial Officer from 2019 to 2026. Mason joined Citigroup in 2001. His prior roles at the firm include CFO of Citi's Institutional Clients Group, CEO of Citi Private Bank, CEO of Citi Holdings, and CFO and Head of Strategy and M&A for Citi's Global Wealth Management Division. Before his tenure at Citi, Mason was the Director of Strategy and Business Development at Lucent Technologies. He also worked as a strategy consultant at Marakon Associates and held investment banking positions with Goldman Sachs. Mason is a member of the board of directors of Microsoft and was previously a director of Primerica, Inc.
Anand Selvakesari, Chief Operating Officer
Anand Selvakesari serves as Citigroup's Chief Operating Officer. In this role, he is responsible for leading the company's enterprise-wide Transformation program. He is also the Chief Executive Officer of Personal Banking & Wealth Management, which encompasses branded cards, retail services cards, retail banking, and global wealth management. Selvakesari brings over 30 years of experience in Consumer Banking, Wealth Management, and Commercial Banking, all gained at Citi across various global markets. His previous positions include CEO of Global Consumer Bank and Head of the U.S. Consumer Bank.
Vis Raghavan, Head of Banking and Executive Vice Chair
Vis Raghavan holds the positions of Head of Banking and Executive Vice Chair at Citigroup. His dual role highlights the interconnected nature of various aspects of finance within the company. He is part of Citi's Executive Management Team.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Citigroup (symbol: C) primarily revolve around its ongoing challenges with regulatory compliance, risk management, and its underlying technology infrastructure.
- Ongoing Regulatory Scrutiny and Penalties: Citigroup has faced persistent and significant regulatory challenges, including substantial fines from the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). These penalties stem from repeated breaches of crucial rules and a lack of sufficient progress in addressing long-standing deficiencies in risk management, compliance, and data governance. The bank has been operating under consent orders since 2020, incurring fines such as a $135.6 million penalty in July 2024 for inadequate data management improvements and a $400 million fine in 2020 for poor risk controls. Regulators have expressed frustration with the slow pace of remediation, despite the bank's significant investments in its "Transformation" program. While some specific notices regarding trading risk management were lifted in late 2025, broader regulatory oversight and requirements for control improvements continue.
- Deficiencies in Risk Management, Internal Controls, and Data Governance: A fundamental risk for Citigroup is its persistent struggle with enterprise-wide risk management, compliance risk management, internal controls, and the quality of its data management. These shortcomings have led to significant operational errors, such as a mistaken $900 million payment to Revlon creditors in 2020, and inaccuracies in internal liquidity reporting. The root cause of many of these issues is attributed to outdated and fragmented technology systems, coupled with decades of underinvestment in its infrastructure. The lack of cohesive data governance has been repeatedly identified by regulators as a core risk, hindering the bank's ability to manage its operations effectively and meet regulatory standards. Citigroup is currently undertaking a major overhaul of its technology and aiming to bring more IT operations in-house to address these critical issues.
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Fintech and Neobank Disruption
The rise of agile financial technology (fintech) companies and neobanks presents a significant emerging threat to Citigroup's Global Consumer Banking (GCB) segment. These digital-first competitors offer streamlined user experiences, often with lower fees and faster services across traditional banking offerings such as checking accounts, lending, and payment solutions. By leveraging modern technology stacks and customer-centric design, they are actively capturing market share from incumbent banks, particularly among younger demographics and those seeking more accessible financial services.
Big Tech Entry into Financial Services
Major technology companies like Apple, Google, and Amazon are increasingly entering the financial services arena. These firms leverage their massive user bases, advanced data analytics, and technological prowess to offer a range of financial products, including payment systems (e.g., Apple Pay), credit offerings (e.g., Apple Card, Amazon Lending), and potentially broader banking services. This represents a potent threat to Citigroup's consumer banking operations, as Big Tech companies possess significant resources, established brand loyalty, and an ability to quickly scale financial products integrated within their existing ecosystems.
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Citigroup (symbol: C) addresses several large financial markets through its diverse product and service offerings. The addressable market sizes for its main products and services are detailed below:
- Retail Banking: The global retail banking market size was valued at approximately USD 4.26 trillion in 2025. In the U.S., the retail banking market generated revenue of USD 1.28 trillion in 2025.
- Credit Cards: The global credit card payment market size was valued at USD 736.6 billion in 2025. The market size for credit card issuing in the U.S. was USD 178.3 billion in 2025.
- Wealth Management (including Private Banking and retail investment services): The global wealth management market size was valued at USD 1.83 trillion in 2024.
- Corporate Lending: The global corporate lending market was valued at USD 17.6 trillion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 47.2 trillion by 2031.
- Investment Banking and Advisory (including fixed income and equity sales and trading, and research): The global investment banking market size was valued at USD 111.0 billion in 2024.
- Foreign Exchange: The global foreign exchange market size was valued at USD 867.37 billion in 2025.
- Cash Management: The global cash management system market size was estimated at USD 17.6 billion in 2024.
- Trade Finance: The global trade finance market size was valued at USD 55.32 billion in 2025.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Citigroup (C) over the next 2-3 years:- Growth in Services Segment: Citigroup expects continued revenue growth from its Services segment, particularly Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) and Securities Services. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Services revenues increased by 15%, driven by these areas. TTS is noted as a consistent growth engine, aligning with Citi's global reach and local insights, and is expanding its efforts in Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS) and embedded financial services. This segment saw an 8% increase in full-year 2025 revenues, with fee revenue growing by 6% and cross-border transaction value by 10%. The company's roadmap through 2026 emphasizes further TTS and Securities Services growth through pricing, deposit mix, and the implementation of real-time payment solutions.
- Expansion and Integration of Wealth Management: Citigroup is strategically focusing on and investing in its Wealth Management business. Wealth revenues increased by 7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, largely due to growth in Citigold and the Private Bank. For the full year 2025, Wealth delivered 14% revenue growth and an 8% increase in organic Net New Investment Assets. The integration of the U.S. Retail Bank into Wealth Management is anticipated to enhance client relationships, increase "wallet share," and boost revenue through a more seamless referral network and expanded investment offerings. Citigroup has also invested in expanding its wealth management and private banking services globally, including a planned increase in its Hong Kong retail wealth management team.
- Growth in US Personal Banking (Branded Cards): The U.S. Personal Banking (USPB) segment, particularly its Branded Cards, is expected to be a key revenue driver. USPB revenues increased by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, propelled by growth in Branded Cards and Retail Banking. Branded Cards revenue grew 8% in 2025, driven by strong customer engagement in spending, borrowing, and new account acquisitions. Historically, Branded Cards revenues have shown significant increases due to higher net interest income and growth in card spend volumes and average loans. Citi anticipates continued strong loan growth in its Cards business in 2026, supported by ongoing product innovation and robust customer engagement.
- Investment Banking and Corporate Lending Growth: Citigroup expects a resurgence in its Investment Banking and Corporate Lending activities. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Banking revenues surged by 78%, driven by growth in Corporate Lending and Investment Banking. The year 2025 was a record year for Banking, including the best quarter and year for M&A revenues in Citi's history. The company projects mid-teens growth in investment banking fees and its markets business for the first quarter of 2026, fueled by strong M&A and equity capital markets (ECM) activity. Strategic initiatives, including divestitures of non-core assets, are intended to free up capital to further invest in and grow investment banking operations.
- Net Interest Income (NII) Growth: Citigroup anticipates a 5-6% annual increase in net interest income (NII) by 2026, excluding markets. This growth is expected to be supported by a favorable business mix, increased loan volumes, and the repricing of maturing assets into higher yields. The bank's 2026 outlook also includes benefits from its investment portfolio as fixed-rate securities and derivatives transition into higher-yielding instruments. The large global operating deposit base provided by the Services segment is particularly important to Citi's NII story, with average Services deposits rising 7% in 2025, a trend expected to continue into 2026.
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Share Repurchases
- Citigroup's board of directors approved a $20 billion common stock repurchase program in January 2025, which has no expiration date.
- The company repurchased over $13 billion in common shares during 2025, including $4.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- Citigroup returned over $17.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 through common share repurchases and dividends.
Share Issuance
No significant share issuances were reported for Citigroup within the last 3-5 years.
Inbound Investments
No large inbound investments made in Citigroup by third-parties were reported within the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- Since April 2021, Citigroup initiated a multi-year strategy to exit consumer banking operations in 14 markets across Asia and EMEA, with exits completed in nine countries as of February 2026.
- In December 2025, Citigroup agreed to sell its Russia-based banking unit, AO Citibank, a move expected to improve the bank's capital position.
- Citigroup divested a 25% stake in Grupo Financiero Banamex in December 2024, and is preparing for a planned initial public offering of its Mexican consumer and small and middle-market banking units.
Capital Expenditures
- Citigroup reported $6.5 billion in capital expenditures for the full year 2025.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, capital expenditures amounted to $1.6 billion, primarily funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
- In 2024, Citigroup allocated $11.8 billion to technology and an additional $2.9 billion to transformation initiatives.
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 130.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 241.3 |
| Rev LTM | 84,236 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -34,002 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -22,876 |
| CFO LTM | -32,078 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -20,169 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -52.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -31.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -56.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 241.3 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 13.3 |
| P/CFO | -5.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.9% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 121.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 32.0% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markets | 949,000 | 1,007,000 | |||
| Services | 584,000 | 586,000 | |||
| United States Personal Banking (USPB) | 252,000 | 242,000 | |||
| Wealth | 224,000 | 232,000 | |||
| All Other | 201,000 | 196,000 | |||
| Banking | 143,000 | 149,000 | |||
| Corporate/Other | 96,000 | 89,000 | 96,000 | ||
| Institutional Clients Group (ICG) | 1,730,000 | 1,613,000 | 1,730,000 | ||
| Legacy Franchises | 97,000 | 125,000 | |||
| Personal Banking and Wealth Management (PBWM) | 494,000 | 464,000 | |||
| Global Consumer Banking | 434,000 | ||||
| Total | 2,353,000 | 2,412,000 | 2,417,000 | 2,291,000 | 2,260,000 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $105.69 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 192.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/03/1977 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -14.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $114.60 | $99.90 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -7.8% | 5.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.5% | 32.6% |
| Downside Capture | 216.18 | 130.80 |
| Upside Capture | 225.32 | 155.33 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 65.6% | 74.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.50 | 2.35 | 2.21 | 1.55 | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Up Beta | 2.86 | 2.70 | 2.38 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | 1.89 | 1.90 | 1.58 | 1.21 | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| Up Capture | 271% | 236% | 302% | 197% | 208% | 218% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 35 | 72 | 143 | 402 |
| Down Capture | 245% | 248% | 207% | 146% | 122% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 26 | 52 | 107 | 343 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 59.9% | 32.6% | 1.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 3.6% | 19.3% | 0.06 | 82.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 74.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 21.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 48.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 31.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 11.8% | 28.8% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.3% | 18.7% | 0.38 | 80.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 63.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 22.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 45.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 23.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 12.7% | 33.2% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 87.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 70.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | -4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 31.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 53.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 18.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/14/2026 | -3.3% | -2.1% | -3.9% |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | 3.7% | 5.9% | 10.1% |
| 4/15/2025 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 20.0% |
| 1/15/2025 | 6.5% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| 10/15/2024 | -5.1% | -6.3% | 5.5% |
| 4/12/2024 | -1.7% | -3.9% | 5.6% |
| 1/10/2024 | -1.8% | -3.6% | 2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -3.9% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 19.1% | 24.4% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -11.1% | -9.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry, Peter B | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 90.40 | 3,000 | 271,209 | 193,500 | Form | |
| 2 | Dugan, John Cunningham | Direct | Sell | 5022025 | 68.26 | 4,417 | 301,493 | 890,645 | Form | |
| 3 | Wechter, Sara | Chief Human Resources Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182025 | 81.01 | 15,125 | 1,225,284 | 8,893,366 | Form |
| 4 | Skyler, Edward | Hd of Ent Svc & Public Affairs | Direct | Sell | 2182025 | 82.41 | 35,545 | 2,929,263 | 16,871,512 | Form |
| 5 | Selvakesari, Anand | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182025 | 81.10 | 30,000 | 2,433,147 | 18,587,595 | Form |
C Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Despite a seemingly balanced raw skew, the probability-adjusted skew is unattractive at 0.79x. The high probability (60%) assigned to the downside scenario, driven by the binary and severe nature of the regulatory execution risk, outweighs the potential upside. The investment case requires taking on significant, hard-to-predict regulatory risk for a reward that is not sufficiently asymmetric. Until the consent orders are demonstrably resolved, the risk/reward is unfavorable.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Turnaround / Deep ValueThe investment thesis hinges on management's ability to execute a complex, multi-year restructuring to close a significant profitability and efficiency gap with peers. The focus is on strategic execution and balance sheet simplification, which are the core tenets of a Turnaround archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for shareholder return is the successful execution of Citigroup's strategic pivot towards its capital-light, high-margin Services (TTS, Securities Services) and Wealth Management businesses. These segments are growing faster than the bank's consolidated average and generate superior returns, driving a favorable mix shift that should expand the bank's overall Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE) into the management-guided 10-11% range.
- Services division revenues grew 15% in the latest quarter, with a full-year RoTCE over 28%.
- Wealth Management division reported 14% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025.
- Management has guided to a 10-11% overall RoTCE target for FY2026, a significant step-up from the 8.8% adjusted RoTCE in 2025.
- The bank returned over $17.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, primarily through buybacks, which will continue to be a key driver of per-share value.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk to the turnaround thesis is Citigroup's failure to satisfy the 2020 consent orders from the Federal Reserve and OCC regarding deficiencies in risk management and internal controls. This is a multi-year, high-impact issue that has already resulted in significant fines. A failure to show material progress and achieve resolution in 2026 would severely damage management's credibility, likely incur further financial penalties, and could lead to business restrictions, derailing the path to improved returns.
- Citigroup is under ongoing consent orders from the Fed/OCC from 2020.
- The bank was fined an additional $135.6 million in July 2024 for 'insufficient progress', demonstrating the continued material risk.
- As of February 2026, executives are only 'hopeful' for a resolution this year, indicating the outcome is not yet certain.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency Ratio | Trending towards ~60% for FY2026 | This is the most direct measure of management's success in simplifying the bank and realizing cost savings. Failure to hit this target invalidates the margin expansion thesis. |
| Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE) | Achieving 10-11% for FY2026 | The ultimate barometer of the turnaround's success. This metric synthesizes profitability, efficiency, and capital management into the single figure management has staked its credibility on. |
| Services and Wealth Management Revenue Growth | Sustained double-digit YoY growth | These are the designated 'growth engines'. Any significant deceleration here would indicate the core strategy of shifting the business mix is failing, making the overall RoTCE targets much harder to achieve. |
The Transformation vs. Turnaround Trap
BULL VIEW
Management's 'Simplification' strategy will achieve its ~60% efficiency and 10-11% RoTCE targets, unlocking significant value via margin expansion and buybacks.
CORE TENSION
Can a complex restructuring close the profitability gap with peers, or will execution risk and regulatory drag perennially impair returns?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The high probability assigned to 'Execution Risk in Remediation of Regulatory Consent Orders' and the recent Q4 2025 revenue miss give credence to the bear case.
BEAR VIEW
Ongoing regulatory consent orders, legacy asset divestiture risk (Banamex), and potential credit deterioration will prevent management from hitting its targets.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Mid-April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Update Watch: Progress on Efficiency Ratio (~60% target) and Net Charge-Offs in U.S. Personal Banking (guidance: 5.75%-6.25%). |
H1 2026 | Regulatory Update on Consent Orders Watch: Any announcement from the Federal Reserve or OCC regarding lifting the 2020 consent orders. |
May 7, 2026 | Investor Day / Banamex IPO Update Watch: Clarity on the Banamex IPO timeline and updated costs associated with winding down legacy franchises. |
H1 2026 | Finalization of Basel III Endgame Rules Watch: The final rule's stringency on risk-weighted assets (RWA) and operational risk capital charges. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Sep 9, 2025 | Barclays Global Financial Services Conference Details: Management presented at a major industry conference, reiterating the firm's commitment to its transformation strategy and medium-term financial targets. | Modest 1.5% gain $94.80 -> $96.26 |
Oct 14, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: The bank reported strong quarterly results, with positive momentum noted in the core Services and Wealth Management divisions, reinforcing the strategic pivot. | Rose significantly by 3.9% $95.03 -> $98.73 |
Nov 12, 2025 | Strategic Update on Simplification Details: Management provided further details on its restructuring, including plans to cut 20,000 jobs by 2026, which investors viewed as a positive step towards improving efficiency. | Rose significantly by 2.1% $100.23 -> $102.33 |
Dec 24, 2025 | Stock Reaches 52-Week High Details: Shares hit a new 52-week high, continuing a strong year-end rally fueled by optimism over the bank's strategic simplification and a favorable market backdrop. | Modest 1.8% gain $118.78 -> $120.92 |
Jan 14, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported adjusted EPS of $1.81, beating estimates of $1.70, but revenue of $19.9 billion fell short of the anticipated $20.55 billion. | Rose significantly by 4.5% $111.82 -> $116.85 |
Feb 6, 2026 | Report on Consent Order Progress Details: A media report indicated executives are increasingly confident they will complete the compliance work on legacy consent orders within the year. | Surged +6.0% $115.74 -> $122.69 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is trading in a Moderate Volatility regime. However, the Bearish sentiment, driven by significant execution risk and a contested moat, reduces conviction. Therefore, we cap exposure to Conservative (1-3%) until visibility on the turnaround improves.
Diversification Alternatives
JPM
INDUSTRYAvoids Citigroup's execution risk by already operating at a best-in-class level. Offers superior profitability (RoTCE), a higher efficiency ratio, and a more robust 'fortress balance sheet'.
BAC
INDUSTRYProvides a cleaner, more direct investment thesis. Its massive, low-cost US consumer deposit base makes it a primary beneficiary of a high interest rate environment, avoiding C's complex turnaround narrative.
Citigroup is transitioning from a complex, underperforming financial supermarket to a simplified, higher-return bank focused on five core, capital-light businesses (Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth, US Personal Banking).
Filter all news through the lens of the strategic simplification and its impact on Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE).
News of completed divestitures of non-core assets (e.g., Banamex IPO finalization); segment revenue growth in Services or Wealth; improvement in the firm-wide efficiency ratio; and any progress on resolving regulatory consent orders.
Delays in planned divestitures; significant increases in operating expenses not tied to revenue growth; new regulatory sanctions or consent orders; and deterioration in credit quality beyond guided expectations.
Broad market commentary on the banking sector; minor fluctuations in quarterly trading revenues; and short-term interest rate speculation (unless it significantly alters forward guidance).
Repricing Catalyst
The market re-rating is driven by management's execution of a strategic overhaul, exiting 14 international consumer markets to focus on less capital-intensive, high-return businesses like Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) and Wealth Management. The key catalyst is achieving the medium-term target of 11-12% RoTCE by 2026, which would narrow the valuation gap to its tangible book value.
Services (Treasury & Securities)
$23.8B TTM (30% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) for payments, liquidity management; Securities Services for asset custody and administration.
Who Pays & How
Multinational corporations and financial institutions pay fees and maintain large deposit balances for access to Citi's global network, which processes ~$5 trillion in payments daily, creating high switching costs.
Competition
Markets (Trading)
$18.2B TTM (23% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) and Equities sales and trading services.
Who Pays & How
Institutional investors (hedge funds, asset managers) pay spreads and commissions to execute large trades and manage risk.
Competition
US Personal Banking (Cards & Retail)
$21.2B TTM (27% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Branded credit cards (e.g., Citi Double Cash), co-branded cards (e.g., with American Airlines), and retail banking services.
Who Pays & How
US consumers pay interest on revolving credit card balances and merchants pay interchange fees. Retail banking customers provide low-cost deposits.
Competition
Banking (Investment & Corporate)
$8.8B TTM (11% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Investment banking advisory (M&A) and underwriting (debt & equity); corporate lending.
Who Pays & How
Corporations and financial sponsors pay fees for strategic advice (e.g., Boeing, Pfizer, Blackstone) and for raising capital.
Competition
Wealth Management
$7.6B TTM (9% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Private banking, investment advisory, and brokerage services for high-net-worth individuals.
Who Pays & How
Wealthy individuals and families pay fees based on assets under management (AUM) for investment management and financial planning.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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