Citigroup (C)
Market Price (2/11/2026): $122.11 | Market Cap: $222.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Citigroup (C)
Market Price (2/11/2026): $122.11Market Cap: $222.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3%, Dist 3Y High is -1.3% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -97% | Key risksC key risks include [1] persistent failures to remediate deficiencies in its enterprise-wide risk management and internal controls, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 14% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -97% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3%, Dist 3Y High is -1.3% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89% |
| Key risksC key risks include [1] persistent failures to remediate deficiencies in its enterprise-wide risk management and internal controls, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q4 2025 Earnings and Positive Forward Guidance.
Citigroup reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 14, 2026, with adjusted revenues increasing by 8% year-over-year. The company's net income for the quarter was $2.5 billion on revenues of $19.9 billion. Notably, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.81 surpassed analyst estimates. Furthermore, Citigroup provided a positive outlook, projecting net interest income (NII) excluding markets to grow by 5-6% through 2026, targeting a total NII of $62.5 billion. The bank also saw its book value per share increase by 8.3% year-over-year.
2. Significant Progress in Resolving Regulatory Consent Orders.
Citigroup is nearing the completion of its long-standing compliance efforts related to regulatory demands issued more than five years ago. Executives have expressed confidence that the work on these consent orders will be finalized in 2026, a sentiment also being communicated to clients. This progress is anticipated to reduce regulatory constraints, allowing the bank to shift its focus from intensive transformation work back to growth initiatives. A notable step in this direction was the removal by the OCC in December 2025 of a July 2024 amendment to a 2020 consent order, indicating improved compliance. Completing these orders would also enable Citigroup to pursue acquisitions currently prohibited.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.0% change in C stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 100.11 | 122.15 | 22.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 83,308 | 85,244 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.0% | 17.2% | 1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.1 | 15.1 | 15.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,856 | 1,820 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| C | 22.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.5% | 65.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.3% | 72.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.7% change in C stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 92.06 | 122.15 | 32.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81,684 | 85,244 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 17.2% | 5.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.9 | 15.1 | 17.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,879 | 1,820 | 3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| C | 32.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 62.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.6% | 76.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 55.0% change in C stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 69.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.82 | 122.15 | 55.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 78,642 | 85,244 | 8.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.2% | 17.2% | 69.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.7 | 15.1 | -19.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,900 | 1,820 | 4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 55.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| C | 55.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.0% | 75.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.1% | 82.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 162.2% change in C stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 160.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.58 | 122.15 | 162.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 73,645 | 85,244 | 15.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.1% | 17.2% | -18.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.8 | 15.1 | 160.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,937 | 1,820 | 6.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 162.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| C | 162.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.6% | 64.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 53.2% | 79.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| C Return | 1% | -22% | 19% | 42% | 70% | 7% | 141% |
| Peers Return | 47% | -13% | 18% | 43% | 41% | 3% | 210% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| C Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 43% | 53% | 65% | 72% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| C Max Drawdown | -5% | -31% | -13% | -1% | -17% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -27% | -14% | -5% | -17% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, GS. See C Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | C | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 448 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,767 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 374 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5311.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, GS
In The Past
Citigroup's stock fell -52.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -52.1% loss requires a 108.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Citigroup (C)
AI Analysis | Feedback
A global financial supermarket, much like JPMorgan Chase.
Similar to Bank of America, but with a much larger international presence and a major division serving corporations and institutions worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Credit Cards: Offers various credit card products to consumers, enabling purchases and providing revolving credit lines.
- Retail Banking: Provides traditional banking services to individuals, including checking and savings accounts, and personal lending solutions.
- Investment Banking: Delivers advisory services for corporate mergers and acquisitions, and assists clients with capital raising through equity and debt markets.
- Corporate Lending: Extends loans and credit facilities to corporations, institutions, and governments for various financial needs.
- Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS): Offers integrated cash management, payment processing, and trade finance solutions to corporate and institutional clients globally.
- Markets Services: Provides execution and access to global financial markets for clients trading in fixed income, equities, currencies, and commodities.
- Wealth Management: Offers financial planning, advisory, and investment services to help high-net-worth clients manage and grow their assets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Citigroup (symbol: C) serves a diverse range of customers across various segments, rather than having a few identifiable "major customers" in the traditional sense. It sells primarily to both individuals and a vast array of institutional clients. Therefore, we will describe the categories of customers it serves.
The up to three major categories of customers that Citigroup serves are:
- Individual Consumers: This category includes millions of retail banking customers who use checking and savings accounts, credit card holders, individuals seeking mortgages and personal loans, and clients utilizing wealth management services.
- Corporations: Citigroup provides a wide array of services to multinational corporations, mid-sized companies, and other commercial clients. These services include corporate banking, investment banking (advisory, underwriting), treasury and trade solutions, and commercial lending.
- Governments and Other Financial Institutions: This customer base includes sovereign entities, public sector bodies, and central banks, as well as other financial institutions such as banks, asset managers, hedge funds, and insurance companies. Citi provides them with services like markets and securities services, prime brokerage, correspondent banking, and debt capital markets solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
- International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
- Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
- London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG)
- Bloomberg L.P.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlJane Fraser Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board
Jane Fraser is the Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board of Citigroup. She was appointed CEO in March 2021, becoming the first woman to lead a major Wall Street bank. Fraser joined Citigroup in 2004, initially as Head of Client Strategy in the investment and global banking division. She swiftly advanced through various leadership roles, including Global Head of Strategy and Mergers & Acquisitions from 2007 to 2009, a period during which she was part of the executive team responsible for restructuring the group during the 2008 financial crisis. Her career at Citi also includes serving as CEO of Citi Private Bank, CEO of Citigroup Latin America, and President of Citi and CEO of Global Consumer Banking. Fraser has overseen the divestiture of several retail banking and credit card operations in various markets as part of efforts to simplify the bank. Prior to joining Citi, she worked as a mergers and acquisitions analyst at Goldman Sachs in London and was a Partner at McKinsey & Company.
Mark Mason Chief Financial Officer
Mark Mason is the Chief Financial Officer of Citigroup, a position he has held since February 2019. He is responsible for the financial management of the company, overseeing Strategy and M&A, Treasury, and Controllers. Mason joined Citigroup in 2001 and has held numerous executive positions within the firm, including Chief Financial Officer of Citi's Institutional Clients Group, Chief Executive Officer of Citi Private Bank, Chief Executive Officer of Citi Holdings, and CFO and Head of Strategy and M&A for Citi's Global Wealth Management Division. Before his tenure at Citi, Mason was Director of Strategy and Business Development at Lucent Technologies, a strategy consultant with Marakon Associates, and had investment banking experience with Goldman Sachs & Co. Mason earned a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance from Howard University and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Anand Selvakesari Chief Operating Officer
Anand Selvakesari is the Chief Operating Officer of Citigroup, a role he took on in March 2023. He is also head of consumer banking operations and is tasked with overseeing the group's ongoing transformation program. Selvakesari began his career with Citi India in 1991 and has over 30 years of experience across Consumer Banking, Wealth Management, and Commercial Banking, all with Citi and across multiple global markets. His previous roles include CEO of Global Consumer Bank (responsible for consumer banking businesses across 19 markets globally), Head of U.S. Consumer Bank, Head of Consumer Banking for Asia Pacific, and Head of Consumer Banking in China.
Viswas Raghavan Head of Banking and Executive Vice Chair
Viswas Raghavan serves as the Head of Banking and Executive Vice Chair at Citigroup. He is a member of the Executive Management Team.
Andrew Morton Head of Markets
Andrew Morton is the Head of Markets at Citigroup. He is part of Citigroup's Executive Management Team.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Citigroup (C)
- Regulatory Scrutiny, Risk Management, and Internal Controls: Citigroup faces significant ongoing challenges and regulatory scrutiny regarding its enterprise-wide risk management, compliance, internal controls, and data quality management. The company has been operating under consent orders from the Federal Reserve Board and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency since 2020, which mandate substantial improvements in these areas. Failure to fully remediate these deficiencies has resulted in financial penalties and could continue to impact its ability to return capital to shareholders. The company's own management has acknowledged insufficient progress in certain aspects, particularly data quality and regulatory reporting, which led to further regulatory actions in July 2024.
- Credit Risk: As a global financial institution, Citigroup is inherently exposed to significant credit risk arising from its extensive consumer, corporate, and public sector loan portfolios across various countries and jurisdictions. Unexpected or increased losses from these credit exposures, particularly in the event of an economic downturn or normalization of credit losses to pre-pandemic levels in segments like its cards business, could materially impact its financial results.
- Cybersecurity Risk: Citigroup is continuously exposed to cybersecurity risks, which encompass the threat of cyberattacks, data breaches, or failures in protecting its vital business information assets and operations. Given the evolving threat landscape, increasing sophistication of cyber threats, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such incidents could lead to significant financial losses and reputational damage for the company and its clients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The following are clear emerging threats for Citigroup:
- The increasing market penetration and adoption of Fintech companies and Neobanks. These agile, digitally native financial service providers offer lower fees, superior user experiences, and tailored products (e.g., mobile-first banking, advanced budgeting tools, peer-to-peer payments) that directly compete with Citigroup's Global Consumer Banking segment, particularly for deposits, consumer lending, and payment services, eroding market share among younger and digitally-savvy demographics.
- The expansion of Big Tech companies into financial services. Giants like Apple, Google, and Amazon are leveraging their vast customer bases, robust ecosystems, and extensive data to offer financial products and services (e.g., credit cards, payment solutions, lending to small businesses). While often partnering with traditional banks, these tech companies typically own the customer interface and data, positioning themselves as the primary financial relationship and potentially relegating traditional banks like Citigroup to back-end infrastructure providers.
- The rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and digital assets. The development and increasing institutional adoption of blockchain-based financial systems, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins present an emerging long-term threat. DeFi platforms enable peer-to-peer lending, borrowing, trading, and asset management without traditional intermediaries, potentially disintermediating Citigroup's core banking, capital markets, and treasury services, especially for cross-border transactions and wholesale finance, as regulatory frameworks evolve and the technology matures.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Citigroup operates across several main product and service areas, each addressing significant global and regional markets.
Addressable Markets for Citigroup's Main Products and Services:
- Retail Banking / Personal Banking: The global retail banking market size was estimated at USD 2,039.25 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 3,373.43 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2025 to 2033.
- Credit Cards: The global credit card payment market size was valued at USD 690.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,316.4 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.66% during 2025-2033. North America currently dominates this market, holding a significant market share of over 43.7% in 2024.
- Wealth Management: The global wealth management market reached a value of approximately USD 1.8 trillion in 2023. It is expected to grow to USD 2.5 trillion by 2028 and further to USD 3.5 trillion by 2033. North America held the highest market share in terms of revenue for wealth management in 2020.
- Investment Banking (including Corporate and Investment Banking): The global investment banking and trading services market size accounted for USD 397.11 billion in 2024. This market is predicted to increase to approximately USD 765.98 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 6.79% from 2025 to 2034. North America dominated the global investment banking and trading services market with the largest share in 2024.
- Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS): null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Citigroup (symbol: C) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies across its core businesses:
- Growth in Services Sector: Citigroup anticipates continued revenue expansion in its Services sector, particularly within Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) and Securities Services. This growth is expected to be fueled by building on established leadership in cross-border payments, improving client experience, offering integrated solutions, and increasing average deposits and transaction volumes. The Services business has consistently delivered strong performance and gained market share.
- Scaling Wealth Management: The company is focused on expanding its Wealth Management business globally. This includes strategic initiatives such as hiring client advisors, enhancing the client and advisor experience, and driving record net new investment assets. Citigroup's private bank and wealth management revenues saw double-digit growth in the first nine months of 2025.
- Targeted Share Gains in Banking and Markets: Citigroup aims for targeted share gains in its Banking and Markets segments. In Banking, this involves investing in talent in key growth areas and providing seamless client experiences to increase market share in M&A, ECM, and DCM. For Markets, the focus is on capital productivity, digital solutions, and achieving share gains in Fixed Income and Equities, capitalizing on strong franchise performance and increased dealmaking and trading activity.
- Growth in U.S. Personal Banking (USPB): Revenue growth in U.S. Personal Banking is projected, driven by the strong performance of its cards portfolio, increased customer engagement, a rise in interest-earning balances, and fee growth. Citigroup is also maximizing the value of its retail bank through investments in digital capabilities.
- Strategic Investments in Technology and Digital Capabilities: Citigroup is making significant investments in technology, digital assets, and artificial intelligence to drive innovation and enhance capabilities across its franchise. These investments are crucial for improving client experience, operational efficiency, and supporting growth across all business segments, contributing to an improved returns profile.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Citigroup authorized a new multi-year $20 billion share repurchase program in January 2025, with plans to buy back $1.5 billion in shares in Q1 2025.
- The company conducted approximately $1.999 billion in share buybacks in the quarter ending September 30, 2025, and $2.474 billion in 2024.
- In 2023, Citigroup's annual share buybacks totaled $1.977 billion, following $3.25 billion in 2022.
Share Issuance
- Citigroup's shares outstanding have generally declined over the past few years, with a 4% decline year-over-year to 1.863 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2025.
- Shares outstanding decreased by 0.8% in 2024 to 1.94 billion and by 0.43% in 2023 to 1.956 billion.
Outbound Investments
- Citigroup announced an innovative $25 billion private credit partnership with Apollo in 2024.
- The company continues to make investments in its technology and client experience, particularly within its Services business, to deepen client relationships.
- Citi is focusing on high-growth sectors like technology, healthcare, and leverage finance, and aims to capitalize on a favorable market environment in 2025, especially in M&A and debt and equity underwriting.
Capital Expenditures
- Citigroup's capital expenditures for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, were $1.8 billion.
- The company has been investing heavily in its infrastructure as part of an enterprise-wide transformation, enhancing governance, overhauling risk management structures, and automating processes.
- These investments also focus on data governance and quality to leverage the vast amounts of data the bank holds.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 150.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 293.1 |
| Rev LTM | 83,888 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -10,482 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -27,669 |
| CFO LTM | -8,948 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -24,915 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -37.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 293.1 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 15.1 |
| P/CFO | -5.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.3% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 125.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 57.6% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markets | 1,007,000 | ||||
| Services | 586,000 | ||||
| United States Personal Banking (USPB) | 242,000 | ||||
| Wealth | 232,000 | ||||
| All Other | 196,000 | ||||
| Banking | 149,000 | ||||
| Corporate/Other | 96,000 | 89,000 | 96,000 | 97,000 | |
| Institutional Clients Group (ICG) | 1,730,000 | 1,613,000 | 1,730,000 | 1,447,000 | |
| Legacy Franchises | 97,000 | 125,000 | |||
| Personal Banking and Wealth Management (PBWM) | 494,000 | 464,000 | |||
| Global Consumer Banking | 434,000 | 407,000 | |||
| Total | 2,412,000 | 2,417,000 | 2,291,000 | 2,260,000 | 1,951,000 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $122.15 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 222.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/03/1977 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $114.68 | $95.47 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 6.5% | 28.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.9% | 32.0% |
| Downside Capture | 139.34 | 120.49 |
| Upside Capture | 242.54 | 147.90 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 66.9% | 75.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.13 | 1.84 | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| Up Beta | 1.95 | 1.59 | 0.59 | 1.48 | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| Down Beta | 2.24 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.08 | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| Up Capture | 170% | 284% | 230% | 173% | 184% | 192% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 26 | 37 | 72 | 142 | 404 |
| Down Capture | 249% | 163% | 138% | 123% | 113% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 15 | 24 | 53 | 108 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 53.6% | 32.0% | 1.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 4.4% | 19.2% | 0.10 | 82.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.3% | 19.3% | 0.65 | 75.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 76.7% | 25.0% | 2.25 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 16.6% | 0.37 | 22.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.5% | 16.6% | 0.21 | 50.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.3% | 44.7% | -0.58 | 27.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 19.0% | 28.6% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.0% | 18.7% | 0.61 | 80.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.1% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 63.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 16.9% | 1.06 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.3% | 18.9% | 0.48 | 22.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 45.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 57.9% | 0.45 | 24.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 15.1% | 33.3% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.2% | 22.2% | 0.59 | 87.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 70.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.7% | 15.5% | 0.84 | -6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 31.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 20.7% | 0.27 | 54.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.8% | 66.7% | 1.08 | 18.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/14/2026 | -3.3% | -2.1% | |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | 3.7% | 5.9% | 10.1% |
| 4/15/2025 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 20.0% |
| 1/15/2025 | 6.5% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| 10/15/2024 | -5.1% | -6.3% | 5.5% |
| 4/12/2024 | -1.7% | -3.9% | 5.6% |
| 1/10/2024 | -1.8% | -3.6% | 2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -3.9% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 19.1% | 24.4% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -11.1% | -9.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry, Peter B | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 90.40 | 3,000 | 271,209 | 193,500 | Form | |
| 2 | Dugan, John Cunningham | Direct | Sell | 5022025 | 68.26 | 4,417 | 301,493 | 890,645 | Form | |
| 3 | Wechter, Sara | Chief Human Resources Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182025 | 81.01 | 15,125 | 1,225,284 | 8,893,366 | Form |
| 4 | Skyler, Edward | Hd of Ent Svc & Public Affairs | Direct | Sell | 2182025 | 82.41 | 35,545 | 2,929,263 | 16,871,512 | Form |
| 5 | Selvakesari, Anand | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182025 | 81.10 | 30,000 | 2,433,147 | 18,587,595 | Form |
C Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
The Transformation vs. Turnaround Trap
BULL VIEW
Management's 'Simplification' strategy will achieve its ~60% efficiency and 10-11% RoTCE targets, unlocking significant value via margin expansion and buybacks.
CORE TENSION
Can a complex restructuring close the profitability gap with peers, or will execution risk and regulatory drag perennially impair returns?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The high probability assigned to 'Execution Risk in Remediation of Regulatory Consent Orders' and the recent Q4 2025 revenue miss give credence to the bear case.
BEAR VIEW
Ongoing regulatory consent orders, legacy asset divestiture risk (Banamex), and potential credit deterioration will prevent management from hitting its targets.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Mid-April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Update Watch: Progress on Efficiency Ratio (~60% target) and Net Charge-Offs in U.S. Personal Banking (guidance: 5.75%-6.25%). |
H1 2026 | Regulatory Update on Consent Orders Watch: Any announcement from the Federal Reserve or OCC regarding lifting the 2020 consent orders. |
May 7, 2026 | Investor Day / Banamex IPO Update Watch: Clarity on the Banamex IPO timeline and updated costs associated with winding down legacy franchises. |
H1 2026 | Finalization of Basel III Endgame Rules Watch: The final rule's stringency on risk-weighted assets (RWA) and operational risk capital charges. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Feb 6, 2026 | Report on Consent Order Progress Details: A media report indicated executives are increasingly confident they will complete the compliance work on legacy consent orders within the year. | Surged +6.0% |
Jan 14, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported adjusted EPS of $1.81, beating estimates of $1.70, but revenue of $19.9 billion fell short of the anticipated $20.55 billion. | Rose significantly by 4.5% |
Dec 24, 2025 | Stock Reaches 52-Week High Details: Shares hit a new 52-week high, continuing a strong year-end rally fueled by optimism over the bank's strategic simplification and a favorable market backdrop. | Modest 1.8% gain |
Nov 12, 2025 | Strategic Update on Simplification Details: Management provided further details on its restructuring, including plans to cut 20,000 jobs by 2026, which investors viewed as a positive step towards improving efficiency. | Rose significantly by 2.1% |
Oct 14, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: The bank reported strong quarterly results, with positive momentum noted in the core Services and Wealth Management divisions, reinforcing the strategic pivot. | Rose significantly by 3.9% |
Sep 9, 2025 | Barclays Global Financial Services Conference Details: Management presented at a major industry conference, reiterating the firm's commitment to its transformation strategy and medium-term financial targets. | Modest 1.5% gain |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is trading in a Moderate Volatility regime. However, the Bearish sentiment, driven by significant execution risk and a contested moat, reduces conviction. Therefore, we cap exposure to Conservative (1-3%) until visibility on the turnaround improves.
Diversification Alternatives
JPM
INDUSTRYAvoids Citigroup's execution risk by already operating at a best-in-class level. Offers superior profitability (RoTCE), a higher efficiency ratio, and a more robust 'fortress balance sheet'.
BAC
INDUSTRYProvides a cleaner, more direct investment thesis. Its massive, low-cost US consumer deposit base makes it a primary beneficiary of a high interest rate environment, avoiding C's complex turnaround narrative.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
