Boston Scientific (BSX)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $70.23 | Market Cap: $104.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Boston Scientific (BSX)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $70.23Market Cap: $104.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 36x |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% | Key risksBSX key risks include [1] significant financial and reputational damage from product liability lawsuits and settlements for alleged defects or failures, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 36x |
| Key risksBSX key risks include [1] significant financial and reputational damage from product liability lawsuits and settlements for alleged defects or failures, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Lower-than-expected 2026 Guidance and Electrophysiology (EP) Underperformance: Despite reporting adjusted earnings per share of $0.80 for Q4 2025, beating consensus estimates, Boston Scientific's stock experienced a significant decline of up to 17.6% on February 4, 2026, following its earnings release. This was largely driven by the company's 2026 guidance, which projected organic revenue growth of 10-11%, a notable deceleration from the 19.9% reported for 2025 and below prior consensus expectations. Investor concerns were exacerbated by the Q4 2025 Electrophysiology (EP) segment sales, which came in at $890 million, missing expectations of $933 million, leading several analysts to lower their price targets for the stock.
2. Class I Recall of AXIOS Stent and Delivery Systems: On February 28, 2026, Boston Scientific initiated a Class I recall for its AXIOS Stent and Delivery Systems due to reports of deployment and expansion problems. This recall, categorized as posing a high risk to patients, is anticipated to negatively impact the company's first-half 2026 growth by approximately 150 basis points due to the temporary withdrawal of the device.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.6% change in BSX stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.58 | 69.48 | -31.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,350 | 20,075 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 53.9 | 35.6 | -34.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,482 | 1,483 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BSX | -31.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.8% | -3.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -7.8% | -1.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.1% change in BSX stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 105.50 | 69.48 | -34.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,494 | 20,075 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.5% | 14.4% | 6.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 62.3 | 35.6 | -43.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,480 | 1,483 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BSX | -34.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 3.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 6.2% | 11.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -33.1% change in BSX stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 103.79 | 69.48 | -33.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,746 | 20,075 | 19.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.1% | 14.4% | 30.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 82.6 | 35.6 | -57.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,474 | 1,483 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -33.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BSX | -33.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 38.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -1.1% | 33.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.7% change in BSX stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 162.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.72 | 69.48 | 48.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,682 | 20,075 | 58.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.5% | 14.4% | 162.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 95.9 | 35.6 | -62.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,433 | 1,483 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BSX | 48.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.3% | 37.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 19.6% | 37.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BSX Return | 18% | 9% | 25% | 55% | 7% | -27% | 94% |
| Peers Return | 9% | -8% | 5% | 3% | 14% | -2% | 22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BSX Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 67% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 50% | 52% | 50% | 60% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BSX Max Drawdown | -2% | -17% | -3% | -0% | 0% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -20% | -10% | -6% | -7% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MDT, ABT, JNJ, SYK, BDX. See BSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 497 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 239.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,538 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MDT, ABT, JNJ, SYK, BDX
In The Past
Boston Scientific's stock fell -25.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.2% loss requires a 33.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Boston Scientific (BSX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Essentially a Medtronic-like company, specializing in a wide range of interventional medical devices.
2. Like the medical device arm of Johnson & Johnson, but purely focused on interventional technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Boston Scientific (BSX) develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices across various interventional specialties. Its major products include:
- Gastrointestinal and Pulmonary Devices: Medical devices for diagnosing and treating conditions of the digestive system and lungs.
- Urological and Pelvic Health Devices: Devices designed to treat various conditions affecting the urinary system and pelvic organs.
- Cardiac Rhythm Management Devices: Implantable devices like defibrillators and pacemakers, along with remote monitoring systems, to manage heart rate and rhythm disorders.
- Electrophysiology Technologies: Advanced tools including mapping and ablation catheters used to diagnose and treat complex heart rhythm disorders.
- Neuromodulation Systems: Devices such as spinal cord and deep brain stimulators for managing chronic pain and neurological conditions.
- Interventional Cardiology Products: A range of devices including drug-eluting stents, PCI products, imaging catheters, and structural heart therapies for treating coronary and structural heart diseases.
- Peripheral Interventions Products: Devices like stents, balloons, and atherectomy systems used to treat arterial, venous, and other peripheral vascular diseases, including cancer therapies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Boston Scientific (BSX) sells its medical devices primarily to healthcare institutions and organizations worldwide. Due to the fragmented nature of the global healthcare market and the extensive range of Boston Scientific's product portfolio, they do not typically have a few named public companies that constitute "major customers" in the traditional sense. Instead, their customer base is broadly categorized as follows:
- Hospitals and Health Systems: These institutions are the primary purchasers and end-users for a vast array of Boston Scientific's medical devices, utilized in various interventional specialties such as cardiology, gastroenterology, urology, and neurology. This category includes academic medical centers, community hospitals, and integrated delivery networks globally.
- Ambulatory Surgical Centers (ASCs) and Specialty Clinics: For less invasive and outpatient procedures, ambulatory surgical centers and specialized clinics (e.g., cardiology clinics, endoscopy centers, pain management clinics) represent a significant and growing customer segment for many of Boston Scientific's devices.
- Group Purchasing Organizations (GPOs) and Distributors: While not direct end-users of the medical devices, GPOs play a critical role by negotiating purchasing contracts on behalf of their member hospitals and health systems, effectively channeling sales. Distributors manage the logistics of product delivery to healthcare providers. Both are crucial intermediaries and major partners in Boston Scientific's sales and supply chain strategy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Michael F. Mahoney - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Michael F. Mahoney is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Boston Scientific Corporation. He joined Boston Scientific as President in October 2011, became CEO in November 2012, and assumed the role of Chairman in 2016. Prior to his tenure at Boston Scientific, Mahoney served as Worldwide Chairman of the Medical Devices and Diagnostics division of Johnson & Johnson. From 2001 to 2006, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Global Healthcare Exchange (GHX), a company he built through organic development and strategic acquisitions, integrating seven acquisitions and expanding its operations into Europe and Canada. He began his career at General Electric Medical Systems, where he spent twelve years in various leadership roles within diagnostic imaging, cardiology, and healthcare information technology.
Jon Monson - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jon Monson serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Boston Scientific, a position he assumed effective June 30, 2025. He has been with Boston Scientific for over 25 years, holding various roles of increasing responsibility within the finance organization. His previous positions include Senior Vice President, Investor Relations, Global Controller, Chief Accounting Officer, and Vice President and Controller of the company's Urology business. Monson is a certified public accountant and holds a bachelor's degree in economics and accounting from the College of the Holy Cross.
Arthur C. Butcher - Executive Vice President and Group President, MedSurg and Asia Pacific
Arthur C. Butcher is the Executive Vice President and Group President for MedSurg and Asia Pacific at Boston Scientific. He has previously served as Senior Vice President and President of Endoscopy for the company.
Joseph M. Fitzgerald - Executive Vice President and Group President, Cardiology
Joseph M. Fitzgerald holds the position of Executive Vice President and Group President, Cardiology at Boston Scientific. He is responsible for the company's cardiology-related businesses.
Vance R. Brown - Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Vance R. Brown is the Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Boston Scientific. In this role, he oversees the company's legal affairs and corporate governance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Boston Scientific's business operations and financial performance are primarily centered around its regulatory and legal environment, intense market competition, and the inherent product liability associated with medical devices.
- Legal and Regulatory Risks: Boston Scientific faces significant exposure to legal and regulatory challenges, which are frequently cited as the top risk category for the company. The company is currently dealing with multiple class-action lawsuits and a federal probe related to the AXIOS stent recall and disclosure allegations, which could result in substantial settlements, fines, and reputational damage. In the past, Boston Scientific has incurred billions in litigation-related charges, particularly from transvaginal mesh product liability cases. Recent Class I recalls, which indicate a high probability of serious adverse health consequences or death, have been issued for products such as the AXIOS Stent & Delivery System and certain pacemakers due to manufacturing flaws. Additionally, FDA safety alerts have been issued for Endotak Reliance defibrillator wires and Watchman implants due to reported injuries and deaths. Changes in healthcare regulations, reimbursement policies, and the evolving ethical and regulatory landscape of medical AI also present ongoing risks.
- Competition and Technological Obsolescence: The medical device industry is highly competitive and technology-driven, requiring continuous innovation. Boston Scientific faces intense competition from established rivals and new market entrants, particularly in key segments like electrophysiology, where competitive pressures are reportedly increasing and impacting market share. There is a constant risk that competitors will introduce more effective, advanced, or cheaper products, or that Boston Scientific's own products may become technologically obsolete. The company has also experienced setbacks, such as disappointing clinical results in the transcatheter heart valve space, which can diminish opportunities in important growth markets. Maintaining momentum and market leadership requires sustained investment in research and development and successful clinical outcomes for new products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rise of gene therapy and other advanced precision medicine approaches that aim to cure or prevent diseases at a genetic or cellular level represents a clear emerging threat. Many of Boston Scientific's devices address the symptoms or mechanical issues of chronic conditions (e.g., cardiovascular disease, chronic pain, certain cancers, neurological disorders). If these underlying diseases can be effectively treated or prevented through targeted biological interventions, the demand for device-based therapies could significantly diminish.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX) operates in several large and growing addressable markets for its medical devices across its MedSurg, Rhythm and Neuro, and Cardiovascular segments.
Cardiovascular Segment
- Structural Heart Devices: The global structural heart devices market was estimated at approximately USD 16.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 50.99 billion by 2033. North America accounted for the largest revenue share in 2024.
- Interventional Cardiology Devices: The global interventional cardiology devices market was valued at approximately USD 29.41 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 42.39 billion by 2031. North America held the largest global revenue share in 2025.
- Peripheral Vascular Devices: The global peripheral vascular device market was valued at approximately USD 10.67 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 18.51 billion by 2034. North America led the global market with a 40.8% market share in 2024. The broader global interventional cardiology and peripheral vascular devices market was valued at USD 27.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 60.8 billion by 2035.
Rhythm and Neuro Segment
- Cardiac Rhythm Management Devices: The global cardiac rhythm management devices market was valued at approximately USD 23.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 39.7 billion by 2034. The U.S. cardiac rhythm management devices market accounted for USD 11.1 billion in 2024. North America dominated the global market in 2024.
- Spinal Cord Stimulators: The global spinal cord stimulator market is expected to increase from approximately USD 3,437 million in 2024 to USD 7,243.98 million by 2032. North America is the largest market for spinal cord stimulators.
- Deep Brain Stimulation Systems: The global deep brain stimulation devices market was estimated at approximately USD 1.54 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 4.43 billion by 2035. North America captured approximately 41.88% of the market share in 2025.
MedSurg Segment
- Gastrointestinal Devices: The global gastrointestinal devices market was estimated at USD 11.11 billion in 2024, growing to USD 11.79 billion in 2025, and is projected to reach USD 16.38 billion in 2029. North America commanded 39.62% of revenue in 2025.
- Urology and Pelvic Health Devices: The global urology devices market was estimated at USD 36.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 73.5 billion in 2034. North America currently holds the largest share of the global urology devices market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Boston Scientific (BSX)
Over the next 2-3 years, Boston Scientific (BSX) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key strategic areas and product innovations:
- Electrophysiology (EP) Innovations: The company anticipates significant growth from its Electrophysiology portfolio, particularly with the continued adoption of its FARAPULSE pulsed-field ablation (PFA) system. Strong market demand for PFA technology and the planned launch of next-generation devices like FARAPULSE Ultra are expected to fuel this segment's expansion. The global PFA market is projected to experience substantial growth.
- Structural Heart Therapies (WATCHMAN): Continued strong adoption of the WATCHMAN FLX Pro device for left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) is a key growth driver. The potential impact of ongoing clinical trials, such as the CHAMPION-AF trial, could further enhance the WATCHMAN business.
- Interventional Cardiology & Vascular Therapies (ICVT): Boston Scientific expects robust sales growth within its Interventional Cardiology and Vascular Therapies segments. The company's strategy in capturing market share, capitalizing on recent acquisitions, and launching new products like Seismic IVL contributes to this growth.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Acquisitions are a crucial component of Boston Scientific's growth strategy. Recent and planned acquisitions, such as Valencia Technologies Corporation and Penumbra, are anticipated to expand capabilities in areas like neurovascular and thrombectomy, thereby contributing to overall revenue growth.
- MedSurg Segment Growth (Urology and Neuromodulation): The company's diverse MedSurg product lines, specifically urology and neuromodulation, are demonstrating strong market demand and are expected to continue their growth trajectory through successful product launches and market penetration.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Boston Scientific expanded its stock repurchase program by an additional $4 billion, increasing the total authorization to $5 billion, effective February 18, 2026. All authorized funds are currently available for use.
Share Issuance
- In 2025, Boston Scientific received $282 million from stock issuances related to employee stock plans.
Outbound Investments
- Boston Scientific has pursued a strategy of acquisitions to strengthen its core businesses and expand into high-growth adjacent markets. Acquisitions contributed 420 basis points to sales in the third quarter of 2025, resulting in 15.3% organic revenue growth.
- Key acquisitions include the agreement to acquire Penumbra in January 2026 for $14.5 billion, which is expected to expand capabilities in neurovascular and thrombectomy, and Valencia Technologies Corporation in January 2026 to enhance urology offerings.
- Other significant acquisitions in the last 3-5 years include Axonics, Inc. for $3.7 billion in November 2024, Silk Road Medical, Inc. for $1.16 billion in June 2024, Relievant Medsystems, Inc. for $850 million in November 2023, and Baylis Medical for $1.75 billion in October 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are projected to increase from 4.7% of revenue in 2024 to 7% of revenue by 2030, aimed at maintaining high-growth rates, increasing production capabilities, and investing in new projects.
- The company is making substantial investments in its supply chain and manufacturing infrastructure, including expanding its manufacturing footprint in China, Costa Rica, and Malaysia, and integrating AI and automation into its manufacturing network.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 119.5 |
| Rev LTM | 30,300 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,835 |
| FCF LTM | 4,846 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,452 |
| CFO LTM | 6,164 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,674 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 119.5 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 19.0 |
| P/E | 26.6 |
| P/CFO | 20.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill | 17,089 | 14,387 | 12,920 | 11,988 | 9,951 |
| Cardiovascular | 7,084 | 5,988 | 5,205 | 4,417 | 2,461 |
| Other intangible assets, net | 6,684 | 6,003 | 5,902 | 6,121 | 5,917 |
| All other corporate assets | 5,446 | 5,869 | 5,941 | 7,525 | 7,850 |
| MedSurg | 3,093 | 2,888 | 2,501 | 2,178 | 1,638 |
| Other | 1,133 | ||||
| Rhythm and Neuro | 1,827 | ||||
| Total | 39,396 | 35,135 | 32,469 | 32,229 | 30,777 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $69.48 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 103.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/19/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -35.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $80.41 | $95.74 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -13.6% | -27.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 43.5% | 30.1% |
| Downside Capture | 124.70 | 76.46 |
| Upside Capture | -43.63 | 25.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -2.6% | 36.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.52 | -0.51 | -0.43 | -0.04 | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| Up Beta | -1.47 | -0.63 | -0.16 | 0.44 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| Down Beta | -2.20 | -1.88 | -1.87 | -0.69 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| Up Capture | -100% | -65% | -60% | -26% | 21% | 20% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 26 | 59 | 124 | 410 |
| Down Capture | 182% | 123% | 113% | 66% | 78% | 65% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 35 | 65 | 124 | 339 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BSX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSX | -31.3% | 30.1% | -1.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 0.2% | 17.6% | -0.14 | 32.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 18.9% | 0.64 | 36.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.0% | 1.45 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.4% | 0.83 | 10.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 25.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.9% | 44.2% | -0.35 | 2.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BSX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSX | 12.0% | 23.9% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.3% | 14.5% | 0.26 | 49.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 49.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.5% | 0.97 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 39.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.8% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 16.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BSX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSX | 14.4% | 26.6% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.6% | 16.5% | 0.47 | 60.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 60.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.7% | 0.70 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 19.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 50.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 11.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | -17.6% | -19.0% | -20.3% |
| 10/22/2025 | 4.0% | 1.1% | -2.9% |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | 4.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | 1.4% | 2.4% | -2.6% |
| 10/23/2024 | -0.6% | -3.9% | 2.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | -1.1% | -5.8% | 0.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | 5.7% | 4.2% | 9.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -2.9% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 9.2% | 17.4% |
| Max Negative | -17.6% | -19.0% | -20.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Butcher, Arthur C | EVP& Grp Pres, MedSurg & APAC | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 101.55 | 17,313 | 1,758,189 | 2,396,653 | Form |
| 2 | Zane, Ellen M | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 98.28 | 12,891 | 1,266,978 | 2,371,984 | Form | |
| 3 | Fitzgerald, Joseph Michael | EVP & Group Pres, Cardiology | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 99.47 | 50,000 | 4,973,338 | 17,739,100 | Form |
| 4 | Zane, Ellen M | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 101.13 | 9,990 | 1,010,301 | 2,734,082 | Form | |
| 5 | Zane, Ellen M | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 102.24 | 2,901 | 296,599 | 2,467,465 | Form |
BSX Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a favorable probability-adjusted skew of 1.88x. Despite the valid concerns about growth deceleration and competition, the underlying secular trend in PFA and structural heart is strong enough (Regime B) to warrant a bullish probability skew. The recent 17% price decline has improved the entry point, creating an attractive risk-reward profile where the market has likely over-penalized the stock for the moderation of its hyper-growth phase.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderBoston Scientific fits the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype due to its strong, double-digit organic revenue growth driven by innovative, market-leading products in high-growth categories. However, its high valuation and the market's extreme sensitivity to decelerating growth in its key engines (as shown by the 17% stock drop) confirm the 'High-Beta' nature.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is centered on Boston Scientific's ability to drive above-market growth and margin expansion by shifting its revenue mix towards higher-growth, higher-margin product lines, specifically the FARAPULSE Pulsed Field Ablation (PFA) system for electrophysiology and the WATCHMAN device for left atrial appendage closure.
- Cardiovascular segment organic growth of 16.1% in Q4 2025 significantly outpaced the MedSurg segment's 6.5% growth.
- The Pulsed Field Ablation (PFA) market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~25%, representing a major shift in the standard of care.
- BSX has a ~500-1200 basis point COGS advantage over key rivals Medtronic and Abbott, providing superior profitability and reinvestment capacity.
- Full-year 2025 adjusted operating margin was strong at 28.0%, with guidance for another 50-75 bps of expansion in 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is the sharp deceleration in the key Electrophysiology (EP) growth engine. After an initial hyper-adoption phase in the U.S., sequential sales flattened in Q4 2025. Management has guided to losing market share from its current dominant position as formidable competitors like Medtronic and Johnson & Johnson launch their own PFA products, potentially leading to a growth and valuation reset.
- Electrophysiology YoY organic growth decelerated dramatically from 93.7% in Q2 2025 to 35% in Q4 2025.
- Management acknowledged sequential flatness in the US EP market and guided for market share loss as new competitors enter.
- FY2026 organic growth guidance of 10-11% implies a significant slowdown from 15.8% in FY2025, triggering downward analyst revisions.
- The stock fell over 17% post-earnings, indicating the market is highly sensitive to signs of slowing growth in this key franchise.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Electrophysiology (EP) Organic Growth | Sequential Growth > 0% | After flattening in Q4 2025, a return to sequential growth is required to prove that the slowdown was a temporary air pocket from initial U.S. saturation and not the start of a structural decline due to competition. |
| WATCHMAN Franchise Growth | Maintain >20% YoY Growth | This is the second key growth engine. A positive CHAMPION trial result on March 28, 2026, should keep growth well above 20%. Any deceleration below this level ahead of a positive catalyst would be a major red flag. |
| FY2026 Organic Revenue Growth vs. Guidance | Tracking at/above the high end of 10-11% range | The entire debate is about the rate of deceleration. The stock needs to prove it can sustain double-digit growth. Consistently tracking towards the high end of guidance would signal that competitive threats are manageable. |
The Farapulse Growth Cliff
BULL VIEW
Recent sales flatness is a temporary pause after a massive US launch. Market leadership, physician training moats, and pipeline will drive sustained double-digit growth.
CORE TENSION
Whether the sharp deceleration in Electrophysiology (Farapulse) growth is a temporary digestion period or a structural downshift due to market saturation and intensifying competition.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q4 2025 EP sales missed consensus by $33M. YoY growth fell from 94% to 35% in two quarters, with flat sequential sales. Management guided to losing PFA market share.
BEAR VIEW
The low-hanging fruit has been picked. Competitors are launching viable alternatives, and management has guided to market share loss, breaking the hyper-growth thesis.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
March 28, 2026 | WATCHMAN CHAMPION Trial Data Readout Watch: Headline result vs. primary endpoint. Did WATCHMAN prove to be a viable first-line alternative to NOACs for a broader patient population? |
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Sequential growth in Electrophysiology sales. Any further deceleration from Q4's flat performance would confirm the bear thesis. |
Ongoing (Next 6 months) | Competitor PFA System Traction Watch: Announcements of major hospital contracts or superior clinical data from Medtronic (PulseSelect) or J&J (Varipulse). |
This Quarter (Next 90 days) | EPA / Court Ruling on EtO Sterilization Watch: Court ruling revoking exemptions for sterilization facilities or any EPA announcement of enforcement actions against major providers. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 9, 2025 | New Product Line Launch Details: The company announced the launch of Endura Weight Loss Solutions, accompanied by a survey highlighting demand for new weight loss methods. | Muted (-0.38%) $103.14 -> $102.75 |
Sep 30, 2025 | Investor Day Details: Boston Scientific hosted its 2025 Investor Day to review financial goals and long-term growth strategies with the investment community. Market reaction was muted. | Flat (0.61%) $97.04 -> $97.63 |
Oct 22, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Details: Reported strong Q3 results with adjusted EPS of $0.75 beating the high end of guidance. The company highlighted exceptional performance and strong cash flow conversion. | Rose significantly by 3.95% $99.90 -> $103.85 |
Jan 15, 2026 | Announced Agreement to Acquire Penumbra, Inc. Details: BSX announced a deal to acquire Penumbra to expand its cardiovascular portfolio with an entry into the mechanical thrombectomy market for vascular diseases. | Fell notably by -3.96% $93.74 -> $90.03 |
Feb 4, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Downbeat Guidance Details: Reported a miss on Electrophysiology sales and guided 2026 organic growth to 10-11%, a sharp deceleration from 15.8% in 2025, triggering a massive sell-off. | Plummeted -17.6% $91.62 -> $75.50 |
Feb 6, 2026 | Securities Fraud Investigation Announced Details: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz announced an investigation into Boston Scientific for possible violations of federal securities laws, following the severe stock drop after earnings. | Modest 1.02% gain $75.50 -> $76.27 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive and Spiking volatility regime. The combination of Bearish sentiment, decelerating growth, and a contested moat makes this a potential knife catch. We cap exposure until the growth trajectory stabilizes.
Diversification Alternatives
HALO
SECTORUnlike BSX's decelerating growth, Halozyme's royalty-based model offers high-margin, accelerating growth visibility, driven by established blockbuster therapies using its ENHANZE platform.
ARWR
SECTORARWR offers exposure to a potentially transformative drug launch (Redemplo) with a clearer catalyst path and recent FDA approval, contrasting with BSX's maturing growth cycle and competitive pressures.
Boston Scientific is transitioning from a diversified medical device manufacturer to a high-growth cardiovascular powerhouse, driven by category-defining products in Pulsed Field Ablation (Farapulse) and Left Atrial Appendage Closure (WATCHMAN).
Filter all news through the lens of sustaining premium growth in the high-margin Cardiovascular segment, particularly in Electrophysiology (EP) and Structural Heart (WATCHMAN), while managing MedSurg performance and integrating large acquisitions.
Electrophysiology or WATCHMAN franchise revenue growth >+20% YoY; competitor stumbles in the Pulsed Field Ablation (PFA) market; successful clinical trial data for next-generation devices or expanded indications (e.g., CHAMPION trial for WATCHMAN).
Sustained deceleration of EP organic growth below market expectations; competitor PFA systems (Medtronic, Abbott) gaining significant physician mindshare; negative clinical trial outcomes for key pipeline products; integration issues with major acquisitions like Penumbra.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in lower-growth MedSurg businesses like Endoscopy or Urology; single-analyst price target changes without new fundamental data; early-stage pipeline announcements without clinical data.
Repricing Catalyst
The dual commercial success of the FARAPULSE PFA System and the WATCHMAN FLX device is the primary catalyst. FARAPULSE achieved over $1B in revenue in its first full year (2024), fundamentally transforming the atrial fibrillation market. WATCHMAN is projected to grow ~20% annually, creating a new standard of care. These products are shifting the company's revenue mix towards higher-growth, higher-margin categories, justifying a premium valuation.
Cardiovascular Devices
$13.3B TTM (66% of Total) · 70.7% MarginWhat It Is
FARAPULSE Pulsed Field Ablation System, WATCHMAN FLX Left Atrial Appendage Closure Device, Interventional Cardiology Therapies (stents, catheters), Cardiac Rhythm Management (pacemakers, defibrillators).
Who Pays & How
Hospitals and cardiac specialists pay for these devices because they offer superior clinical outcomes, improve procedural efficiency, and are becoming the standard of care for conditions like atrial fibrillation (Farapulse) and stroke prevention in AFib patients (WATCHMAN).
Competition
Medical Surgical (MedSurg) Devices
$6.8B TTM (34% of Total) · 70.7% MarginWhat It Is
Endoscopy devices (e.g., OverStitch Endoscopic Suturing System), Urology products, and Neuromodulation devices for pain management.
Who Pays & How
Hospitals and specialty clinics pay for these devices to perform less invasive procedures for a wide range of conditions in gastroenterology, urology, and neurology.
Competition
External Quote Links
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