Alibaba (BABA)
Market Price (10/21/2025): $174.1 | Market Cap: $404.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Alibaba (BABA)
Market Price (10/21/2025): $174.1Market Cap: $404.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 36%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 32%, FCF Yield is 37% | ||
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -46% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 151 Bil, FCF LTM is 151 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 36%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 32%, FCF Yield is 37% |
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -46% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 151 Bil, FCF LTM is 151 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
BABA Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
BABA Return | 10% | -49% | -26% | -11% | 12% | 108% | -17% |
Peers Return | 104% | 19% | -39% | 24% | 12% | 34% | 177% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
BABA Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 65% | 55% | 32% | 62% | 52% | 62% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
BABA Max Drawdown | -17% | -52% | -47% | -19% | -12% | -5% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -12% | -51% | -14% | -18% | -16% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, BIDU, EBAY, ETSY. See BABA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/20/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | BABA | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -76.7% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 328.9% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -30.0% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -38.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Alibaba's stock fell -76.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -76.7% loss requires a 328.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
With Alibaba Stock Climbed 5.1% In A Week, How Confident Are You? | Return | ||
BABA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
Time To Buy Alibaba Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
Alibaba (BABA) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 86.7% in 2025 and 8.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
Alibaba (BABA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba (BABA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba (BABA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba (BABA) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba Group (BABA) Stock Has 58% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
ARTICLES | |||
Buy Or Fear Alibaba Stock After AI Surge? | October 2nd, 2025 | ||
Alibaba’s AI Chip Gambit | September 2nd, 2025 | ||
How AI Is Powering Alibaba’s Stock Turnaround | February 21st, 2025 | ||
Why Is Alibaba Stock Trading So Cheaply? | January 23rd, 2025 | ||
Alibaba Stock Is Down 70% From Highs, But Its AI Push Is Yielding Results | August 29th, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BABA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -8.1% | -8.1% | -11.7% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -8.1% | -8.1% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alibaba
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 147.80 |
Mkt Cap | 223.7 |
Rev LTM | 252,122 |
Op Inc LTM | 46,908 |
FCF LTM | 7,804 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 22,099 |
CFO LTM | 61,862 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 59,749 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
Op Mgn LTM | 14.3% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 223.7 |
P/S | 3.0 |
P/EBIT | 17.2 |
P/E | 24.4 |
P/CFO | 14.0 |
Total Yield | 4.9% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
D/E | 0.3 |
Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 2.9% |
3M Rtn | 28.2% |
6M Rtn | 53.7% |
12M Rtn | 44.0% |
3Y Rtn | 117.2% |
1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
3M Excs Rtn | 18.0% |
6M Excs Rtn | 23.1% |
12M Excs Rtn | 25.2% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 34.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8292025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 6262025 | 20-F 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2202025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11182024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8152024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5232024 | 20-F 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2072024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11162023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8102023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 7212023 | 20-F 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2232023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11172022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8042022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 7262022 | 20-F 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2242022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11182021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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