Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $137.4 | Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $137.4Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -195 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -195 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AXSM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between July 31, 2025, and November 14, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) stock moved by 35.5% due to several key developments:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Revenue Beat and Product Growth
Axsome Therapeutics reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 3, 2025, with total net product revenue reaching $171.0 million. This figure significantly surpassed analyst forecasts of $162.45 million, representing a 63% year-over-year increase. The growth was primarily driven by strong sales of Auvelity, which saw a 69% year-over-year increase to $136.1 million, and Sunosi, with a 35% increase to $32.8 million. Symbravo also contributed $2.1 million in its first full quarter on the market.
2. Submission of sNDA for AXS-05 in Alzheimer's Disease Agitation
The company announced on November 3, 2025, the submission of a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to the FDA for AXS-05 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease agitation. This regulatory milestone is significant, as AXS-05 previously received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for this indication, addressing a substantial unmet medical need.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXSM Return | -21% | -54% | 104% | 3% | 6% | 62% | 33% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 9% | -2% | 8% | -2% | 0% | 5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXSM Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 48% | 54% | 58% | 46% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXSM Max Drawdown | -60% | -76% | -42% | -26% | -17% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -8% | -20% | -16% | -16% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACT, ALKS, LIVN, PRGO, PCRX. See AXSM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXSM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 309.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 665 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1772 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -70.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 237.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 120 days |
Compare to ACT, ALKS, LIVN, PRGO, PCRX
In The Past
Axsome Therapeutics's stock fell -75.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/1/2021. A -75.6% loss requires a 309.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Axsome Therapeutics Earnings Notes | |||
| Axsome Therapeutics Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| null | |||
| AXSM Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axsome Therapeutics Market Price | Market Price | ||
| Axsome Therapeutics vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 13th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Axsome Therapeutics Stock? | October 14th, 2021 | ||
| Axsome Therapeutics Stock Rises 36% In A Month But Will The Rally Continue? | September 17th, 2021 | ||
| Will Axsome Stock Rebound After A 19% Fall In A Month? | July 22nd, 2021 | ||
| What’s Next For Axsome Therapeutics Stock After A 13% Rise In A Month? | June 18th, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AXSM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.2% | -9.2% | -10.1% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.6% | -25.6% | -25.6% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.8% | -0.8% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.6% | 13.6% | -7.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.2% | -9.2% | -10.1% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.6% | -25.6% | -25.6% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.8% | -0.8% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.6% | 13.6% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Axsome Therapeutics
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,287 |
| Op Inc LTM | 194 |
| FCF LTM | 231 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 192 |
| CFO LTM | 313 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 252 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 6.7 |
| P/E | -2.7 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auvelity | 130 | 5 | |||
| Sunosi | 72 | 45 | |||
| Sunosi license revenue | 66 | 0 | |||
| Sunosi royalty revenue | 2 | 0 | |||
| Total | 271 | 50 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business of developing and delivering novel therapies for the management of CNS disorders | 88 | 186 | 221 | ||
| Total | 88 | 186 | 221 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.6% | 2.3% | |
| 8/4/2025 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 19.9% |
| 5/5/2025 | 3.8% | -4.0% | -1.9% |
| 2/18/2025 | -2.3% | -0.3% | -4.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | 9.4% | 1.6% | 7.4% |
| 8/5/2024 | -1.4% | -1.6% | 6.2% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.5% | -3.1% | -3.4% |
| 2/20/2024 | -12.6% | -11.3% | -17.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 2.6% | 15.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -3.5% | -15.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 8.4% | 76.4% |
| Max Negative | -46.5% | -55.3% | -48.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Coleman Mark | 9092025 | Buy | 127.20 | 800 | 101,760 | 6,033,986 | Form | |
| 1 | JEFFS ROGER | 9022025 | Sell | 123.68 | 13,464 | 1,665,228 | 7,112,837 | Form | |
| 2 | JEFFS ROGER | 8292025 | Sell | 122.30 | 20,000 | 2,446,000 | 13,572,120 | Form | |
| 3 | JEFFS ROGER | 8262025 | Sell | 120.08 | 16,694 | 2,004,616 | 18,128,958 | Form | |
| 4 | Coleman Mark | 5292025 | Sell | 105.47 | 3,750 | 395,512 | 5,314,317 | Form |
Industry Resources
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