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Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)


Market Price (10/21/2025): $131.0 | Market Cap: $6.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)


Market Price (10/21/2025): $131.0
Market Cap: $6.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -208 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.3%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -208 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.3%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AXSM Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AXSM Return-21%-54%104%3%6%56%24%
Peers Return-19%-12%-7%-26%-43%-35%-82%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AXSM Win Rate42%50%67%50%50%44% 
Peers Win Rate23%44%52%40%25%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AXSM Max Drawdown-60%-76%-42%-26%-17%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-16%-18%-43%-67%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APLM, APM. See AXSM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/20/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventAXSMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven309.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven665 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1772 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-70.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven237.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven11 days120 days


How Low Can It Go?

Axsome Therapeutics's stock fell -75.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/1/2021. A -75.6% loss requires a 309.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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Better Bets than Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AXSM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADMA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025ADMAADMA BiologicsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-4.6%
REGN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-0.8%
HAE_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09262025HAEHaemoneticsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.3%4.3%-0.1%
WAT_9192025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09192025WATWatersMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.2%11.2%-4.3%
ISRG_9052025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09052025ISRGIntuitive SurgicalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.4%-4.4%-8.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADMA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025ADMAADMA BiologicsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-4.6%
REGN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-0.8%
HAE_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09262025HAEHaemoneticsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.3%4.3%-0.1%
WAT_9192025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09192025WATWatersMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.2%11.2%-4.3%
ISRG_9052025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09052025ISRGIntuitive SurgicalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.4%-4.4%-8.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Axsome Therapeutics

Financials

AXSMVRTXACSBALPSAPLMAPMMedian
NameAxsome T.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Apollomi.Aptorum  
Mkt Price131.60419.10---1.60131.60
Mkt Cap6.5107.6----57.0
Rev LTM49511,419----5,957
Op Inc LTM-208-199-----204
FCF LTM-1213,500----1,689
FCF 3Y Avg-1341,984----925
CFO LTM-1213,846----1,863
CFO 3Y Avg-1332,324----1,095

Growth & Margins

AXSMVRTXACSBALPSAPLMAPMMedian
NameAxsome T.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Apollomi.Aptorum  
Rev Chg LTM69.8%10.5%----40.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg699.5%11.0%----355.3%
Rev Chg Q72.1%12.1%----42.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM14.5%2.9%----8.7%
Op Mgn LTM-42.0%-1.7%-----21.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-73.9%26.5%-----23.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM13.3%2.0%----7.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-24.4%33.7%----4.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-47.6%22.5%-----12.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-24.5%30.6%----3.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-47.8%19.2%-----14.3%

Valuation

AXSMVRTXACSBALPSAPLMAPMMedian
NameAxsome T.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Apollomi.Aptorum  
Mkt Cap6.5107.6----57.0
P/S13.19.4----11.3
P/EBIT-27.224.5-----1.3
P/E-26.429.6----1.6
P/CFO-53.928.0-----13.0
Total Yield-3.8%3.4%-----0.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.4%2.1%-----0.7%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.0-----0.0

Returns

AXSMVRTXACSBALPSAPLMAPMMedian
NameAxsome T.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Apollomi.Aptorum  
1M Rtn13.5%9.4%----10.1%9.4%
3M Rtn20.0%-8.6%----8.6%-8.6%
6M Rtn27.8%-12.2%---86.0%27.8%
12M Rtn41.0%-13.2%----6.4%-6.4%
3Y Rtn217.3%39.7%----77.4%39.7%
1M Excs Rtn12.4%8.3%----11.2%8.3%
3M Excs Rtn21.6%-17.6%----7.4%-7.4%
6M Excs Rtn-2.8%-42.8%---55.4%-2.8%
12M Excs Rtn31.0%-29.3%----20.6%-20.6%
3Y Excs Rtn101.3%-42.2%----163.5%-42.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Auvelity1305   
Sunosi7245   
Sunosi license revenue660   
Sunosi royalty revenue20   
Total27150   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business of developing and delivering novel therapies for the management of CNS disorders  88186221
Total  88186221


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,380,948
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-2.0%
Average Daily Volume473,895
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.13
Basic Shares Quantity49,442,001
Short % of Basic Shares6.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/20253.4%1.7%19.9%
5/5/20253.8%-4.0%-1.9%
2/18/2025-2.3%-0.3%-4.9%
11/12/20249.4%1.6%7.4%
8/5/2024-1.4%-1.6%6.2%
5/6/20241.5%-3.1%-3.4%
2/20/2024-12.6%-11.3%-17.2%
11/6/2023-4.2%-11.9%5.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131112
# Negative91110
Median Positive4.8%3.4%15.6%
Median Negative-4.2%-3.5%-12.9%
Max Positive10.2%8.4%76.4%
Max Negative-46.5%-55.3%-48.1%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211108202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Coleman Mark 9092025Buy127.20800101,7606,033,986Form
1JEFFS ROGER 9022025Sell123.6813,4641,665,2287,112,837Form
2JEFFS ROGER 8292025Sell122.3020,0002,446,00013,572,120Form
3JEFFS ROGER 8262025Sell120.0816,6942,004,61618,128,958Form
4Coleman Mark 5292025Sell105.473,750395,5125,314,317Form