American Express (AXP)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $330.66 | Market Cap: $230.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
American Express (AXP)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $330.66Market Cap: $230.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% | |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AXP Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
AXP Return | -1% | 37% | -9% | 29% | 60% | 13% | 175% |
Peers Return | 38% | 8% | -26% | 20% | 31% | 5% | 82% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
AXP Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 33% | 75% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 60% | 54% | 38% | 67% | 65% | 58% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
AXP Max Drawdown | -44% | -5% | -17% | -3% | -4% | -22% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -13% | -35% | -9% | -4% | -15% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: V, MA, COF, PYPL, GFCX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | AXP | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -32.0% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 47.0% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 483 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -49.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 98.6% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -20.7% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 26.1% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -84.3% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 538.9% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1470 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
American Express's stock fell -32.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -32.0% loss requires a 47.0% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AXP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.8% | -10.8% | -12.3% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.4% | 3.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% |
03312020 | AXP | American Express | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 15.3% | 68.7% | -13.6% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.8% | -10.8% | -12.3% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.4% | 3.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% |
03312020 | AXP | American Express | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 15.3% | 68.7% | -13.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American Express
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 330.66 |
Mkt Cap | 230.8 |
Rev LTM | 38,893 |
Op Inc LTM | 16,870 |
FCF LTM | 14,315 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 16,399 |
CFO LTM | 15,488 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 18,226 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 8.4% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
Op Mgn LTM | 58.0% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 58.0% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 49.9% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.5% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 46.6% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.1% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 230.8 |
P/S | 3.4 |
P/EBIT | 25.6 |
P/E | 22.7 |
P/CFO | 17.6 |
Total Yield | 4.9% |
Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
D/E | 0.2 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 1.3% |
3M Rtn | -0.4% |
6M Rtn | 12.8% |
12M Rtn | 20.5% |
3Y Rtn | 98.4% |
1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
3M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
6M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
12M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States Consumer Services (USCS) | 28,116 | 23,914 | 18,922 | ||
Commercial Services (CS) | 14,776 | 13,569 | 10,911 | ||
International Card Services (ICS) | 10,430 | 9,061 | 7,435 | ||
Global Merchant and Network Services (GMNS) | 7,396 | 6,475 | 5,129 | 4,243 | 6,234 |
Corporate & Other | -203 | -157 | -17 | -552 | -171 |
Global Commercial Services (GCS) | 10,619 | 13,108 | |||
Global Consumer Services Group (GCSG) | 21,777 | 24,385 | |||
Total | 60,515 | 52,862 | 42,380 | 36,087 | 43,556 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States Consumer Services (USCS) | 107,158 | 94,444 | 77,000 | ||
Commercial Services (CS) | 55,361 | 51,411 | 45,000 | ||
International Card Services (ICS) | 42,234 | 36,891 | 33,000 | ||
Corporate & Other | 32,641 | 25,603 | 19,000 | 48,000 | 21,000 |
Global Merchant and Network Services (GMNS) | 23,714 | 20,005 | 15,000 | 14,000 | 18,000 |
Global Commercial Services (GCS) | 42,000 | 53,000 | |||
Global Consumer Services Group (GCSG) | 87,000 | 106,000 | |||
Total | 261,108 | 228,354 | 189,000 | 191,000 | 198,000 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/18/2025 | -2.3% | -2.3% | -3.1% |
4/17/2025 | -0.6% | 5.7% | 18.5% |
1/24/2025 | -1.4% | -2.1% | -9.3% |
10/18/2024 | -3.1% | -5.5% | 0.4% |
7/19/2024 | -2.7% | -3.6% | 1.0% |
4/19/2024 | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.6% |
1/26/2024 | 7.1% | 8.1% | 15.4% |
10/20/2023 | -5.4% | -4.2% | 8.6% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 9 | 11 | 15 |
# Negative | 15 | 13 | 9 |
Median Positive | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.3% |
Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.4% | -6.5% |
Max Positive | 10.5% | 13.1% | 18.9% |
Max Negative | -5.4% | -13.1% | -17.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7182025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4182025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10182024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7192024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4192024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10202023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 4212023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10212022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7222022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4222022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10222021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Seeger Laureen | Chief Legal Officer | 8072025 | Sell | 297.24 | 39,383 | 11,706,203 | 9,315,177 | Form |
1 | Marquez Rafael | President, International Card | 5212025 | Sell | 296.93 | 12,000 | 3,563,160 | 2,398,617 | Form |
2 | Joabar Raymond | Grp. Pres., Global Comm. Serv. | 5142025 | Sell | 302.44 | 400 | 120,976 | 602,763 | Form |
3 | Grosfield Howard | Group Pres., U.S. Cons. Serv. | 5072025 | Sell | 275.50 | 9,450 | 2,603,475 | 2,590,383 | Form |
4 | McNeal Glenda G | Chief Partner Officer | 4302025 | Sell | 264.66 | 3,019 | 799,009 | 2,889,792 | Form |
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