Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $116.39 | Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $116.39Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.9% | Key risksANF key risks include [1] managing brand relevance as evidenced by a 5% sales decline in its core Abercrombie brand and [2] navigating a projected $50 million net impact from trade tariffs. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.9% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Key risksANF key risks include [1] managing brand relevance as evidenced by a 5% sales decline in its core Abercrombie brand and [2] navigating a projected $50 million net impact from trade tariffs. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ANF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results. Abercrombie & Fitch reported record net sales of $1.3 billion for the third quarter ended November 1, 2025, marking its twelfth consecutive quarter of growth with a 7% increase from the prior year. The company's GAAP profit of $2.36 per share exceeded analyst estimates by 9.4%, and revenue also surpassed expectations, leading to a significant stock surge of over 30% in a single day after the report.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases. Following the robust Q3 2025 performance, multiple analyst firms upgraded their ratings and raised price targets for Abercrombie & Fitch. Notably, Barclays increased its price target to $94, UBS adjusted its expectations to $130, Morgan Stanley set a new target of $95, and Telsey Advisory Group reiterated an "outperform" rating with a $125 target. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a $120 price target, citing the company's strong sales growth outlook and potential for margin recovery, while Jefferies raised its target to $115 based on healthy traffic and omni-channel momentum.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ANF Return | 19% | 71% | -34% | 285% | 69% | -22% | 583% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 17% | -24% | 55% | 12% | 21% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ANF Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 50% | 83% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 50% | 32% | 62% | 52% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ANF Max Drawdown | -53% | 0% | -59% | -5% | 0% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -8% | -44% | -7% | -22% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AEO, URBN, LULU, RL, PVH. See ANF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ANF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 232.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 552 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 497.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5506 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TJX, URBN, AEO, GES, ROST
In The Past
Abercrombie & Fitch's stock fell -69.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -69.9% loss requires a 232.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ANF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 09122025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 33.0% | -25.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 09122025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 33.0% | -25.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Abercrombie & Fitch
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,785 |
| Op Inc LTM | 688 |
| FCF LTM | 422 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 488 |
| CFO LTM | 627 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 683 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 17.2 |
| P/E | 12.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 29.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 154.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 28.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 18.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 70.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/26/2025 | 7.1% | -0.3% | |
| 8/28/2025 | -3.1% | -1.2% | -12.2% |
| 5/29/2025 | -5.5% | -4.2% | -0.2% |
| 3/6/2025 | 2.9% | -9.2% | -12.3% |
| 11/27/2024 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 8/29/2024 | 3.8% | -7.9% | -1.6% |
| 5/30/2024 | -3.1% | -1.5% | 3.4% |
| 3/7/2024 | -7.2% | -1.9% | -6.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -7.0% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 19.0% | 31.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.5% | -13.7% | -30.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12052025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6062025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3312025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9062024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4012024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12042023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3272023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6082022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3282022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
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