Applied Materials (AMAT)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $536.0 | Market Cap: $425.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $536.0Market Cap: $425.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.3 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 191% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53% Key risksAMAT key risks include [1] U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.3 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 191% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53% |
| Key risksAMAT key risks include [1] U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Applied Materials (AMAT) stock has gained about 55% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance.
Applied Materials reported stronger-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter 2026 (ended April 26, 2026) on May 14, 2026, with an adjusted EPS of $2.86, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.68 by $0.18. Revenue reached $7.91 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $7.68 billion and marking an 11.4% year-over-year increase. The company also issued optimistic guidance for fiscal third quarter 2026 (ending July 26, 2026), forecasting revenue of approximately $8.95 billion (±$500 million) and an adjusted EPS of $3.36 (±$0.20), attributing this to sustained demand from AI and data center markets.
2. Surging Demand from AI Infrastructure and Advanced Packaging.
The semiconductor industry experienced strong momentum throughout fiscal Q2 2026, driven significantly by the expanding artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, including AI servers, hyperscale data centers, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) platforms. Applied Materials, a leader in materials engineering solutions crucial for AI and next-generation chip commercialization, benefited from this trend. Industry forecasts projected the global semiconductor industry to reach US$975 billion in annual sales in 2026, with a 26% growth rate, largely fueled by the AI boom. Additionally, Intel's increased 2026 capital expenditure forecast to US$20 billion further reinforced optimism for chip equipment stocks, including Applied Materials.
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Applied Materials (AMAT) stock has gained about 55% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance.
Applied Materials reported stronger-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter 2026 (ended April 26, 2026) on May 14, 2026, with an adjusted EPS of $2.86, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.68 by $0.18. Revenue reached $7.91 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $7.68 billion and marking an 11.4% year-over-year increase. The company also issued optimistic guidance for fiscal third quarter 2026 (ending July 26, 2026), forecasting revenue of approximately $8.95 billion (±$500 million) and an adjusted EPS of $3.36 (±$0.20), attributing this to sustained demand from AI and data center markets.
2. Surging Demand from AI Infrastructure and Advanced Packaging.
The semiconductor industry experienced strong momentum throughout fiscal Q2 2026, driven significantly by the expanding artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, including AI servers, hyperscale data centers, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) platforms. Applied Materials, a leader in materials engineering solutions crucial for AI and next-generation chip commercialization, benefited from this trend. Industry forecasts projected the global semiconductor industry to reach US$975 billion in annual sales in 2026, with a 26% growth rate, largely fueled by the AI boom. Additionally, Intel's increased 2026 capital expenditure forecast to US$20 billion further reinforced optimism for chip equipment stocks, including Applied Materials.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Analyst ratings for Applied Materials reflected significant confidence, with a consensus of "Strong Buy." Numerous firms raised their price targets for the stock in July 2026. For example, UBS increased its target from $570 to $705 on July 15, 2026, while Needham raised its target from $530 to $740 on July 10, 2026. Stifel Nicolaus also reiterated a "Buy" rating and lifted its price target from $530 to $650 on July 10, 2026, signaling strong analyst conviction in the company's growth trajectory.
4. Strategic Innovations for Advanced Memory and Chip Architectures.
On June 25, 2026, Applied Materials introduced new systems aimed at accelerating DRAM and advanced packaging technologies, which are critical for the development of AI chips. These innovations support the 3D architectures necessary for cutting-edge AI, including a new epitaxy system specifically optimized for DRAM fabs. This strategic focus on high-growth areas within semiconductor manufacturing enhanced the company's market position and contributed to investor confidence.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 57.1% change in AMAT stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 341.37 | 536.25 | 57.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,214 | 29,024 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.8% | 29.3% | 5.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.5 | 50.0 | 44.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 793 | 794 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 57.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 57.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 59.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 32.3% | 75.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 109.2% change in AMAT stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 71.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 256.35 | 536.25 | 109.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,368 | 29,024 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.7% | 29.3% | 18.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.1 | 50.0 | 71.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 795 | 794 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 109.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 109.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 59.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.3% | 74.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 195.1% change in AMAT stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 130.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 181.74 | 536.25 | 195.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,089 | 29,024 | 3.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.1% | 29.3% | 21.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.8 | 50.0 | 130.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 809 | 794 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 195.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 195.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 57.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 39.5% | 70.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 280.2% change in AMAT stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 173.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 141.04 | 536.25 | 280.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,638 | 29,024 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.4% | 29.3% | 20.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.3 | 50.0 | 173.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 843 | 794 | 6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 280.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 280.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 62.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 106.1% | 74.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMAT Return | 84% | -38% | 68% | 1% | 60% | 120% | 583% |
| Peers Return | 50% | -23% | 50% | -4% | 61% | 76% | 371% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMAT Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 38% | 65% | 42% | 53% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMAT Max Drawdown | -20% | -55% | -16% | -36% | -35% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -42% | -20% | -33% | -34% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TXN, MCHP, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC. See AMAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 478 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 421 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Applied Materials's stock fell -26.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AMAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 478 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 421 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1693 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Applied Materials's stock fell -26.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Applied Materials (AMAT)
Applied Materials (AMAT) is a foundational technology company that provides the essential manufacturing equipment, services, and software required to produce semiconductor chips and advanced displays. The company operates globally, enabling the creation of virtually all modern electronic devices by supplying critical tools to factories around the world. Its business is structured into three main segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display and Adjacent Markets.
The Semiconductor Systems segment is central to the chip-making industry, offering a broad range of sophisticated equipment used to fabricate integrated circuits. These tools perform crucial processes such as deposition, etching, chemical mechanical planarization, and metrology, which are vital steps in manufacturing the processors and memory chips powering computers, smartphones, and other digital devices. Simultaneously, the Display and Adjacent Markets segment provides specialized equipment for producing various screen technologies, including liquid crystal displays (LCD) and organic light-emitting diodes (OLED), which are found in TVs, monitors, laptops, tablets, and smartphones.
Complementing its equipment sales, the Applied Global Services segment delivers comprehensive solutions designed to optimize the performance and productivity of manufacturing facilities. This includes supplying essential spare parts, offering equipment upgrades, providing maintenance services, and developing factory automation software. These services ensure that semiconductor and display fabrication plants operate efficiently and reliably. Applied Materials serves a global customer base, including leading semiconductor and display manufacturers across the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Applied Materials (AMAT):
- Applied Materials is like the Caterpillar of the semiconductor and display industries, providing the essential heavy machinery for making advanced chips and screens.
- Think of Applied Materials as the Deere & Company for high-tech manufacturing, supplying the specialized equipment and services critical to producing the world's semiconductors and electronic displays.
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Applied Materials (AMAT) provides the following major products and services:
- Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment: Equipment used for various processes in fabricating integrated circuits, including deposition, etching, and planarization.
- Metrology and Inspection Tools: Devices designed for measuring and examining semiconductor wafers to ensure quality and precision during manufacturing.
- Display Manufacturing Products: Equipment for producing liquid crystal displays (LCDs), organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs), and other advanced display technologies.
- Equipment Spares and Upgrades: Services providing replacement parts and enhancements to optimize the performance and extend the life of manufacturing equipment.
- Equipment Services: Integrated solutions and support aimed at maintaining and improving the operational efficiency and productivity of manufacturing equipment and facilities.
- Remanufactured Equipment: Sales of refurbished earlier-generation manufacturing equipment for cost-effective solutions.
- Factory Automation Software: Software solutions that automate and optimize manufacturing operations within semiconductor and display fabrication plants.
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Applied Materials (AMAT) sells primarily to other companies. Its major customers are the world's leading manufacturers of semiconductor chips (integrated circuits) and display panels (such as LCDs and OLEDs).
Based on the company's description and the industries it serves, its major customers include, but are not limited to, the following public companies:
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) (NYSE: TSM)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (KRX: 005930 or ADR: SSNLF) - a major manufacturer of both semiconductor chips and display panels
- Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC)
- Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU)
- SK Hynix Inc. (KRX: 000660)
- LG Display Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LPL or KRX: 034220)
- BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (SHE: 000725)
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Gary E. Dickerson, President and Chief Executive Officer
Gary Dickerson has served as President of Applied Materials since June 2012 and as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the board of directors since September 2013. He has over 35 years of experience in the semiconductor industry. Prior to joining Applied Materials, he was the CEO of Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, Inc. for seven years, until its acquisition by Applied Materials in 2011. Dickerson also spent 18 years at KLA-Tencor Corporation, where he held various operations and product development roles, eventually serving as President and Chief Operating Officer. He began his career in manufacturing and engineering management at General Motors' Delco Electronics Division and AT&T Technologies. He successfully negotiated Applied Materials' $4.9 billion cash acquisition of Varian Semiconductor.
Brice Hill, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services
Brice Hill joined Applied Materials as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Global Information Services in March 2022. He brings 25 years of finance leadership experience within the semiconductor industry. Before joining Applied Materials, Hill served as Executive Vice President and CFO of Xilinx, Inc., through its acquisition by AMD. For over two decades, he held various finance leadership roles at Intel Corporation, including CFO and Chief Operating Officer of the Technology, Systems & Core Engineering Group. His career began at General Motors Corporation in various finance positions.
Omkaram Nalamasu, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Omkaram Nalamasu is Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of Applied Materials, Inc., and also serves as President of Applied Ventures, LLC, the company's venture capital fund. He joined Applied Materials in 2006. Prior to his tenure at Applied Materials, he was an NYSTAR Distinguished Professor of materials science and engineering and Vice President of Research at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Dr. Nalamasu held key research and development leadership positions at AT&T Bell Laboratories, Bell Laboratories/Lucent Technologies, and Agere Systems, Inc. While at Bell Labs, he established the United States' first public-private partnership for nanotechnology commercialization.
Prabu Raja, Ph.D., President, Semiconductor Products Group
Dr. Prabu Raja is President of Applied Materials' Semiconductor Products Group (SPG), leading the company's semiconductor process equipment businesses and global field organization. He started his career at Applied Materials in 1995 as a process engineer. He previously served as Group Vice President and General Manager of the Patterning and Packaging Group. In 2010, he was recognized as an Applied Materials Fellow for his significant technical contributions. Dr. Raja was instrumental in developing Applied Materials' advanced packaging strategy.
Teri Little, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
Teri Little serves as Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary at Applied Materials. In this role, she is responsible for managing the legal and governance aspects of the company, ensuring compliance and effective risk management.
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Key Risks to Applied Materials (AMAT)
- Geopolitical Tensions and Export Controls (China Exposure): Applied Materials faces significant risks due to increasing U.S. export controls on advanced logic and memory tools to China. China was previously a major market for AMAT, accounting for a substantial portion of its revenue, which has since dropped. Management forecasts a further revenue headwind in 2026 due to expanded restrictions, and the company has incurred settlements related to past export control violations, indicating ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
- Cyclicality of the Semiconductor Industry and Global Economic Uncertainties: The semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical and highly sensitive to global economic conditions. Applied Materials' financial performance is closely tied to these fluctuations, as economic downturns or broader geopolitical tensions can lead to reduced capital expenditure by chipmakers, directly impacting AMAT's orders and revenue.
- Customer Concentration Risk: Applied Materials has a highly concentrated customer base, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from a few large chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Any shifts in the spending patterns of these major clients or the loss of a key customer could materially affect AMAT's financial performance and market position.
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The clear emerging threat for Applied Materials is the significant push by China to develop its domestic semiconductor equipment industry. Backed by substantial government investment and strategic policy, Chinese equipment manufacturers are rapidly advancing their capabilities with the explicit goal of achieving self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers like Applied Materials. This initiative poses a direct threat to Applied Materials' market share and long-term revenue in the critical Chinese market, as geopolitical factors increasingly favor local alternatives.
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Applied Materials (AMAT) operates in key addressable markets related to semiconductor manufacturing equipment, display manufacturing equipment, and associated services. The market sizes for their main products and services are outlined below:
Semiconductor Systems
The Semiconductor Systems segment provides manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips. The global market for semiconductor manufacturing equipment demonstrates substantial scale and growth:
- The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market was valued at approximately USD 110.50 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 206.05 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.10% between 2025 and 2034.
- Another estimate indicates the global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market size was valued at USD 118.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 224.93 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2026 to 2033.
- Global sales of total semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are forecast to reach a record high of USD 133 billion in 2025, growing 13.7% year-on-year, with projections of USD 145 billion in 2026 and USD 156 billion in 2027.
- The front-end equipment segment is projected to lead the market with an 84.64% share in 2026.
- The Asia Pacific region dominated the semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry with the largest revenue share of 69.0% in 2025.
Applied Global Services
The Applied Global Services segment provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity, including spares, upgrades, services, remanufactured equipment, and factory automation software for semiconductor and display products. A direct, standalone addressable market size specifically for "Applied Global Services" was not readily available as a distinct market from the overall equipment sales and aftermarket support for the installed base. However, its market is intrinsically linked to the overall semiconductor manufacturing equipment market and the installed base of equipment that it services and maintains. Applied Materials' own services business is noted to be supporting a double-digit growth rate.
Display and Adjacent Markets
The Display and Adjacent Markets segment offers products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays (LCDs), organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs), and other display technologies globally:
- Global display equipment spending is expected to reach a cumulative USD 76 billion during 2020-2027.
- The global flat panel display manufacturing equipment market size was valued at approximately USD 17.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 29.3 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.8% during the forecast period.
- OLED is projected to account for 67% of total display equipment spending from 2023 to 2030, followed by LCD at 30%.
- The global OLED market size was accounted at USD 68.27 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase from USD 82.67 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 385.91 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 18.91% from 2026 to 2035.
- The OLED Deposition Equipment Market was valued at USD 2,510 million in 2024 and is expected to grow from USD 2,690 million in 2025 to USD 5.2 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of around 6.9% during the forecast period (2025 - 2035).
- The liquid crystal display (LCD) market was valued at USD 2.14 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow from USD 2.33 billion in 2026 to reach USD 3.56 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 8.85% during the forecast period (2026-2031).
- Asia Pacific is expected to contribute 46% to the growth of the global flat panel display equipment market during the forecast period.
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Applied Materials (AMAT) is anticipated to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years driven by several key factors:
- AI-Driven Semiconductor Demand: The surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications is fueling significant investments in leading-edge foundry-logic, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and advanced packaging technologies. Applied Materials expects its semiconductor equipment business to grow by more than 20% in calendar year 2026, largely attributed to AI infrastructure investments. This strong demand across these segments is expanding the market opportunity for their differentiated materials engineering portfolio.
- Innovation and New Product Introductions: Applied Materials is continuously investing in research and development (R&D) and launching new products designed for advanced technology inflections. These innovations target next-generation chips, including advanced transistors, Gate-All-Around (GAA) structures, and other 3D scaling approaches in both logic and DRAM. The company plans to introduce more than a dozen new products in 2026, which are critical for enabling their customers' roadmaps and capturing market share.
- Expansion of Applied Global Services (AGS): The Applied Global Services segment provides integrated solutions such as spares, upgrades, services, and factory automation software. This segment is transitioning to an entirely recurring revenue model in 2026, offering a stable and growing revenue stream. Core services within AGS have demonstrated double-digit growth, bolstered by healthy utilization rates in leading-edge foundry-logic and high-bandwidth memory.
- Growth in Display Technology Adoption: The Display and Adjacent Markets segment is expected to contribute to revenue growth through continued industry investments in equipment supporting the broader adoption of advanced display technologies, particularly organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology, in consumer devices.
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Share Repurchases
- Applied Materials authorized a new $10 billion share repurchase program in March 2025, augmenting an existing authorization that had approximately $7.6 billion remaining at the end of Q1 fiscal 2025.
- The company's annual share repurchases amounted to approximately $4.895 billion in 2025, $3.823 billion in 2024, and $2.189 billion in 2023.
- Over the four years preceding March 2025, Applied Materials returned $19.7 billion to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share buybacks.
Outbound Investments
- In April 2025, Applied Materials made a strategic, long-term investment by purchasing 9% of the outstanding shares of BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (Besi). This investment is intended to further the co-development of a fully integrated equipment solution for die-based hybrid bonding, a critical technology for advanced semiconductor packaging.
- Applied Materials acquired Picosun, a developer of thin film coating machinery for industrial purposes, in June 2022. The financial terms of this acquisition were not disclosed.
Capital Expenditures
- Annual capital expenditures were $2.26 billion in 2025, $1.19 billion in 2024, and $1.106 billion in 2023.
- Capital expenditures for the twelve months ending January 31, 2026, were $646 million.
- A significant capital investment has been made in the EPIC lab in Sunnyvale, which aims to foster innovation and collaboration with partners such as Micron and Samsung.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 279.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 275.6 |
| Rev LTM | 19,453 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,405 |
| FCF LTM | 5,343 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,534 |
| CFO LTM | 6,955 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,450 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 27.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 34.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 275.6 |
| P/S | 14.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 50.5 |
| P/EBIT | 48.6 |
| P/E | 56.9 |
| P/CFO | 53.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -18.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 40.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 134.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 295.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 33.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 119.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 225.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Systems | 20,798 | 19,911 | 19,698 | 18,797 | 16,286 |
| Applied Global Services | 6,385 | 6,225 | 5,732 | 5,543 | 5,013 |
| Corporate and Other | 1,185 | 1,040 | 219 | 114 | 130 |
| Display | 868 | 1,331 | 1,634 | ||
| Total | 28,368 | 27,176 | 26,517 | 25,785 | 23,063 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Systems | 7,379 | 6,981 | 6,879 | 6,969 | 6,311 |
| Applied Global Services | 1,792 | 1,812 | 1,529 | 1,661 | 1,508 |
| Corporate and Other | -882 | -926 | -868 | -1,102 | -1,244 |
| Display | 114 | 260 | 314 | ||
| Total | 8,289 | 7,867 | 7,654 | 7,788 | 6,889 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and unallocated costs | 7,016 | 5,028 | 4,084 | ||
| Silicon Systems Group | 5,464 | 5,508 | 5,525 | 5,106 | 2,036 |
| Applied Global Services | 2,254 | 2,042 | 1,958 | 2,035 | 1,337 |
| Display | 456 | 423 | 293 | 278 | 459 |
| Energy and Environmental Solutions | 118 | 173 | 183 | 513 | 1,438 |
| Corporate | 4,170 | 8,591 | |||
| Total | 15,308 | 13,174 | 12,043 | 12,102 | 13,861 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $536.25 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 425.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $537.42 | $366.14 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.2% | 46.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 78.4% | 56.8% |
| Downside Capture | 418.27 | 268.08 |
| Upside Capture | 478.71 | 349.11 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 60.6% | 58.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.80 | 3.48 | 2.88 | 2.76 | 2.48 | 1.92 |
| Up Beta | 1.14 | 2.67 | 2.36 | 2.03 | 2.07 | 1.71 |
| Down Beta | 3.95 | 2.26 | 2.27 | 2.12 | 2.10 | 1.56 |
| Up Capture | 1040% | 878% | 634% | 967% | 1181% | 4109% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 29 | 43 | 77 | 151 | 407 |
| Down Capture | 170% | 240% | 242% | 187% | 160% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 12 | 20 | 48 | 101 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 190.1% | 56.6% | 2.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 35.9% | 24.8% | 1.19 | 71.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 57.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 23.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | -4.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | -0.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.2% | 42.9% | -1.32 | 27.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 34.3% | 45.9% | 0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.4% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 77.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 67.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 15.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 30.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 27.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 36.8% | 43.8% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.1% | 24.8% | 0.88 | 76.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 69.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 11.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 19.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 39.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.1% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 20.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -0.9% | -2.9% | 33.1% |
| 2/12/2026 | 8.1% | 14.5% | 5.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | 1.2% | -1.2% | 16.2% |
| 8/14/2025 | -14.1% | -14.8% | -8.9% |
| 5/15/2025 | -5.3% | -7.9% | 1.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.2% | -6.5% | -15.4% |
| 11/14/2024 | -9.2% | -5.3% | -8.7% |
| 8/15/2024 | -1.9% | -5.3% | -11.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -5.2% | -10.1% |
| Max Positive | 8.1% | 14.5% | 33.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -14.8% | -16.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -0.9% | -2.9% | 33.1% |
| 2/12/2026 | 8.1% | 14.5% | 5.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | 1.2% | -1.2% | 16.2% |
| 8/14/2025 | -14.1% | -14.8% | -8.9% |
| 5/15/2025 | -5.3% | -7.9% | 1.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.2% | -6.5% | -15.4% |
| 11/14/2024 | -9.2% | -5.3% | -8.7% |
| 8/15/2024 | -1.9% | -5.3% | -11.3% |
| 2/15/2024 | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% |
| 11/16/2023 | -4.0% | -2.7% | 3.8% |
| 8/17/2023 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| 5/18/2023 | -2.3% | 0.7% | 6.9% |
| 2/16/2023 | 0.0% | -3.3% | 7.7% |
| 11/17/2022 | 0.2% | 1.6% | -0.2% |
| 8/18/2022 | -3.4% | -2.8% | -16.9% |
| 5/19/2022 | -3.9% | 4.2% | -13.8% |
| 2/16/2022 | -3.2% | -5.2% | -4.0% |
| 11/18/2021 | -5.5% | -9.6% | -8.5% |
| 8/19/2021 | -1.5% | 2.7% | 5.1% |
| 5/20/2021 | -1.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| 2/18/2021 | 5.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% |
| 11/12/2020 | 4.3% | 11.0% | 27.2% |
| 8/13/2020 | 3.9% | -1.6% | -12.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -5.2% | -10.1% |
| Max Positive | 8.1% | 14.5% | 33.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -14.8% | -16.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/19/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/19/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 02/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2021 | 08/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 05/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 02/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/11/2020 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2020 | 08/20/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 05/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 02/20/2020 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/13/2019 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2019 | 08/22/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 5/14/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total Revenue | 8.45 Bil | 8.95 Bil | 9.45 Bil | 17.0% | Higher New | Actual: 7.65 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | 3.16 | 3.36 | 3.56 | 27.3% | Higher New | Actual: 2.64 for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Semiconductor equipment business growth | 30.0% | 10.0% | Raised | Guidance: 20.0% for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 7.15 Bil | 7.65 Bil | 8.15 Bil | 11.7% | Higher New | Actual: 6.85 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | 2.44 | 2.64 | 2.84 | 21.1% | Higher New | Actual: 2.18 for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Semiconductor equipment business growth | 20.0% | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total net revenue | 6.35 Bil | 6.85 Bil | 7.35 Bil | 2.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.70 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | 1.98 | 2.18 | 2.38 | 3.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.11 for Q4 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/6/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dickerson, Gary E | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 735.22 | 20,000 | 14,704,425 | 1,176,238,562 | Form |
| 2 | Dickerson, Gary E | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 700.36 | 58,321 | 40,845,895 | 1,134,478,785 | Form |
| 3 | Raja, Prabu G | President, Semi. Products Grp. | Through Living Trust | Sell | 6222026 | 633.53 | 10,000 | 6,335,300 | 219,608,106 | Form |
| 4 | Iannotti, Thomas J | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 599.77 | 9,250 | 5,547,872 | 24,326,071 | Form | |
| 5 | Nalamasu, Omkaram | Senior Vice President, CTO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 593.43 | 24,263 | 14,398,453 | 87,184,729 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dickerson, Gary E | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 735.22 | 20,000 | 14,704,425 | 1,176,238,562 | Form |
| 2 | Dickerson, Gary E | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 700.36 | 58,321 | 40,845,895 | 1,134,478,785 | Form |
| 3 | Raja, Prabu G | President, Semi. Products Grp. | Through Living Trust | Sell | 6222026 | 633.53 | 10,000 | 6,335,300 | 219,608,106 | Form |
| 4 | Iannotti, Thomas J | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 599.77 | 9,250 | 5,547,872 | 24,326,071 | Form | |
| 5 | Nalamasu, Omkaram | Senior Vice President, CTO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 593.43 | 24,263 | 14,398,453 | 87,184,729 | Form |
| 6 | Dickerson, Gary E | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 593.75 | 71,727 | 42,587,675 | 1,006,498,170 | Form |
| 7 | Nalamasu, Omkaram | Senior Vice President, CTO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 591.95 | 10,737 | 6,355,744 | 101,329,047 | Form |
| 8 | Dickerson, Gary E | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 590.03 | 11,273 | 6,651,408 | 1,042,518,697 | Form |
| 9 | Deane, Timothy M | SVP, Applied Global Services | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 590.76 | 8,621 | 5,092,984 | 79,535,269 | Form |
| 10 | Raja, Prabu G | President, Semi. Products Grp. | Through Living Trust | Sell | 6052026 | 505.28 | 50,000 | 25,264,197 | 180,205,473 | Form |
| 11 | Hill, Brice | SVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 498.86 | 2,500 | 1,247,154 | 67,901,535 | Form |
| 12 | Bruner, Judy | Family Trust | Sell | 5282026 | 450.00 | 1,128 | 507,600 | 11,944,800 | Form | |
| 13 | Sanders, Adam | Corp. Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 434.22 | 268 | 116,370 | 1,858,444 | Form |
| 14 | Bruner, Judy | Family Trust | Sell | 2272026 | 391.71 | 2,500 | 979,275 | 10,219,322 | Form | |
| 15 | Sanders, Adam | Corp. Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 379.16 | 534 | 202,471 | 1,753,615 | Form |
| 16 | Bruner, Judy | Family Trust | Sell | 2242026 | 377.02 | 3,969 | 1,496,404 | 10,778,710 | Form | |
| 17 | Hill, Brice | SVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 361.21 | 5,000 | 1,806,062 | 50,051,396 | Form |
| 18 | Sanders, Adam | Corp. Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 255.53 | 609 | 155,620 | 1,127,672 | Form |
| 19 | Little, Teri A | SVP, CLO | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 238.24 | 4,000 | 952,942 | 20,095,403 | Form |
| 20 | Little, Teri A | SVP, CLO | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 234.08 | 4,000 | 936,321 | 20,681,220 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 26, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $40.4 Mil | 15.0% | 16 | TRIM -8.9% | 13F |
| Lountzis Asset Management, LLC | $40.7 Mil | 14.9% | 52 | Hold | 13F |
| Abrams Bison Investments, LLC | $240.6 Mil | 10.4% | 11 | TRIM -21.1% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $30.2 Mil | 9.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $50.7 Mil | 8.9% | 24 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. | $30.4 Mil | 8.7% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $89.9 Mil | 7.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| XN LP | $165.2 Mil | 6.1% | 23 | ADD +43.4% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $33.8 Mil | 5.6% | 40 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $34.7 Mil | 5.6% | 24 | TRIM -17.7% | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $77.2 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | TRIM -30.3% | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 4.8% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $309.1 Mil | 4.6% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Analog Century Management LP | $95.4 Mil | 4.6% | 25 | TRIM -31.0% | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $12.0 Mil | 4.2% | 10 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $156.6 Mil | 4.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $28.7 Mil | 4.1% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $97.9 Mil | 3.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $177.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +115.4% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $29.6 Mil | 3.4% | 38 | ADD +73.1% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $29.7 Mil | 3.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $20.2 Mil | 2.9% | 31 | TRIM -22.1% | 13F |
| EdgePoint Investment Group Inc. | $334.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.3% | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $2.1 Bil | 2.5% | 44 | TRIM -30.1% | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $7.4 Mil | 1.9% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $309.1 Mil | 4.6% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $156.6 Mil | 4.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $97.9 Mil | 3.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 4.8% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $29.7 Mil | 3.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $28.7 Mil | 4.1% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $28.3 Mil | 1.6% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $12.8 Mil | 0.9% | 28 | New | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $12.0 Mil | 4.2% | 10 | New | 13F |
| Night Owl Capital Management, LLC | $9.7 Mil | 1.1% | 30 | New | 13F |
| KR Capital LP | $7.4 Mil | 1.5% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $7.4 Mil | 1.9% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $177.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +115.4% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $29.6 Mil | 3.4% | 38 | ADD +73.1% | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $67.4 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +52.1% | 13F |
| XN LP | $165.2 Mil | 6.1% | 23 | ADD +43.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $72.1 Mil | 2.3% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $64.2 Mil | 1.5% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $40.4 Mil | 7.1% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $36.2 Mil | 3.3% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives | $27.0 Mil | 0.2% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $12.3 Mil | 0.6% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hel Ved Capital Management Ltd | $8.3 Mil | 2.9% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| MIG Capital, LLC | $5.2 Mil | 0.9% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| EdgePoint Investment Group Inc. | $334.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Analog Century Management LP | $95.4 Mil | 4.6% | 25 | TRIM -31.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $77.2 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | TRIM -30.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $2.1 Bil | 2.5% | 44 | TRIM -30.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $20.2 Mil | 2.9% | 31 | TRIM -22.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Abrams Bison Investments, LLC | $240.6 Mil | 10.4% | 11 | TRIM -21.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $34.7 Mil | 5.6% | 24 | TRIM -17.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $40.4 Mil | 15.0% | 16 | TRIM -8.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $33.8 Mil | 5.6% | 40 | TRIM -8.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $50.7 Mil | 8.9% | 24 | TRIM -5.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $2.1 Bil | 2.5% | 44 | TRIM -30.1% | 13F |
| EdgePoint Investment Group Inc. | $334.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.3% | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $309.1 Mil | 4.6% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Abrams Bison Investments, LLC | $240.6 Mil | 10.4% | 11 | TRIM -21.1% | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $177.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +115.4% | 13F |
| XN LP | $165.2 Mil | 6.1% | 23 | ADD +43.4% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $156.6 Mil | 4.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $97.9 Mil | 3.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Analog Century Management LP | $95.4 Mil | 4.6% | 25 | TRIM -31.0% | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $89.9 Mil | 7.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $77.2 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | TRIM -30.3% | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 4.8% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $67.4 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +52.1% | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $50.7 Mil | 8.9% | 24 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Lountzis Asset Management, LLC | $40.7 Mil | 14.9% | 52 | Hold | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $40.4 Mil | 15.0% | 16 | TRIM -8.9% | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $34.7 Mil | 5.6% | 24 | TRIM -17.7% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $33.8 Mil | 5.6% | 40 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. | $30.4 Mil | 8.7% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $30.2 Mil | 9.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $29.7 Mil | 3.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $29.6 Mil | 3.4% | 38 | ADD +73.1% | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $28.7 Mil | 4.1% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $28.3 Mil | 1.6% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $20.2 Mil | 2.9% | 31 | TRIM -22.1% | 13F |
AMAT Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high as Applied Materials is capitalizing on a powerful AI investment cycle. The company raised its 2026 equipment business growth forecast to over 30%, supported by unprecedented 8-quarter demand visibility from its largest customers. Expanding margins from a favorable mix toward high-value AI-enabling products further strengthens the outlook.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical Capital Goods (Picks & Shovels)Semiconductor Industry Capital Expenditures (driven by end-market demand for chips) x AMAT's Market Share (driven by technology leadership at key inflections). Mix shift towards higher-value, higher-margin systems for leading-edge logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging, where AMAT has strong leadership and pricing power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a powerful, durable cycle driven by AI-related capital spending.
- Semiconductor equipment business growth forecast raised to over 30% for calendar 2026.
- Largest customers are providing rolling 8-quarter forecasts for capacity planning.
- Q2 non-GAAP gross margin reached 50%, increasing 80 basis points year-over-year.
- Core Semiconductor Systems revenue growth sharply accelerated from -8% to +10% YoY in the latest quarter.
- The company has nearly doubled its manufacturing capacity to meet accelerating demand.
PRIMARY RISK
Ongoing U.S. export controls targeting China, which accounted for 30% of fiscal 2025 revenue, could limit the addressable market and cede share to international competitors.
- China represented 30% of total net revenue in fiscal 2025.
- The company has received multiple government subpoenas regarding China shipments since 2022.
- U.S. export controls may provide an advantage to international competitors.
- Management cited uncertainties in its China business for sequentially lower Q4 2025 guidance.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Systems Revenue Growth | 10% year-over-year growth in Q2 FY2026 - Accelerating | The core equipment business has sharply inflected from a year-over-year decline to strong positive growth, driven by a powerful sequential increase. Management attributes this to accelerating investments in AI computing, particularly in leading-edge logic and DRAM. |
| Applied Global Services (AGS) Revenue Growth | 17% year-over-year growth in Q2 FY2026 - Accelerating | The recurring services business has demonstrated strong and consistent acceleration over the past three quarters, moving from a slight decline to high double-digit growth. This reflects higher fab utilization by customers and an expanding installed base of equipment. |
| Backlog | $15,002 million (As of October 26, 2025) | Represents future revenue from accepted orders and contractual service fees, indicating near-to-medium term demand. However, it is subject to change from cancellations or delays. |
| Connected Chambers (AIx) | Over 35,000 (As of May 14, 2026) | Indicates the scale and adoption of the company's AI-powered advanced services platform, which is a driver for the high-growth, subscription-oriented AGS segment. |
| Inventory-versus-Revenue Growth Divergence | 0.7 percentage points (Q2 FY2026 (ended 6/30/2026)) | Measures how much faster inventory is growing than revenue. A small or negative number is positive, suggesting efficient inventory management relative to sales. The current value is a significant improvement from 11.1 percentage points in the prior quarter. |
AI Supercycle Growth vs. Geopolitical Ceiling
BULL VIEW
The AI-driven demand from leading-edge logic and memory customers globally is so strong that it creates a durable growth cycle, more than offsetting any potential weakness from China.
CORE TENSION
Can the forecast of over 30% growth in the core equipment business overcome the structural risk from China, which accounted for 30% of fiscal 2025 revenue?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence, including the significant guidance raise and 8-quarter customer forecasts, indicates the global AI demand driver is currently overwhelming the China-related headwinds.
BEAR VIEW
Further U.S. restrictions on China, which was 30% of revenue, will create a structural ceiling on growth and cede market share to non-U.S. competitors, undermining the supercycle narrative.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
payable on Sept. 10, 2026 | Quarterly Cash Dividend Payment Watch: A quarterly cash dividend of $0.53 per share is payable to shareholders of record as of August 20, 2026. |
in calendar 2026 | Packaging Revenue Growth Watch: The company's packaging revenues are expected to grow more than 50%. |
in the fall | EPIC Center Operations Begin Watch: The new EPIC Center in Silicon Valley is on track to begin operations. |
10/19/2026 | Peer Texas Instruments Earnings Watch: Peer Texas Instruments (TXN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/20/2026 | Peer Earnings Signal Industry Slowdown Watch: Peers' revenue guidance, particularly for memory and leading-edge logic segments, and commentary on capital expenditure trends. |
10/27/2026 | Peer KLA Corp Earnings Watch: Peer KLA (KLAC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/12/2026 | AI Demand Fails To Meet Expectations Watch: Company commentary on order patterns from leading-edge logic and DRAM customers, and any revision to the growth outlook. |
this calendar year | Semiconductor Equipment Business Growth Watch: The company's semiconductor equipment business is expected to grow more than 30% this calendar year. |
No set date | Escalation of US-China Trade Restrictions Watch: New additions to the U.S. Commerce Department's Entity List, or new rules restricting specific technologies or services. |
On Monday afternoon, October 12 | EPIC Center Unveiling Watch: The new EPIC Center in Sunnyvale, California will be unveiled. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-06-25 | Launches New Systems for AI Chips Details: The company introduced a suite of new systems to accelerate DRAM and advanced packaging for AI chips, targeting 3D architectures like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). | +6.4% $588.97 -> $626.84 |
2026-06-10 | Expands Singapore Manufacturing for AI Details: The company expanded its Singapore manufacturing operations with a new US$500 million campus to support the global build-out of AI infrastructure. | +10.7% $499.21 -> $552.64 |
2026-05-14 | Reports Record Q2 and Raises Guidance Details: For the earnings report dated May 14, 2026, the company raised Q3 revenue guidance by 17.0% and non-GAAP EPS guidance by 27.3% to a new midpoint of $3.36. | +0.0% $436.07 -> $436.08 |
2026-05-11 | Announces TSMC Partnership at EPIC Center Details: Applied Materials and TSMC announced a partnership at the EPIC Center to accelerate AI scaling by developing materials, equipment, and process technologies for next-generation devices. | -1.0% $434.90 -> $430.66 |
2026-04-08 | Introduces New Deposition Systems Details: The company introduced new deposition systems, Trillium ALD and Precision Selective Nitride PECVD, designed for angstrom-era Gate-All-Around logic chips. | +12.3% $353.87 -> $397.32 |
2026-03-10 | Announces R&D Partnerships for EPIC Center Details: The company announced long-term R&D partnerships with SK hynix and Micron to accelerate AI memory innovation at its EPIC Center in Silicon Valley. | +3.6% $338.52 -> $350.63 |
2026-02-12 | Stock Soars on Q1 Earnings Beat Details: The company delivered Q1 revenue and earnings above guidance. The stock had a two-day reaction of 4.0% versus -1.0% for the S&P 500 around the February 12, 2026 earnings call. | +4.4% $339.04 -> $354.03 |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AMAT trades at roughly 91% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (6.2x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
LRCX - Lam Research
Direct Peer ExposureLam Research offers a similar picks-and-shovels exposure to the semiconductor cycle, but with historically higher operating margins (34.3% vs. AMAT's 30.1%).
KLAC - KLA
Higher-Margin NicheKLA provides exposure to the high-margin process control and yield management segment of the market, with trailing-twelve-month gross margins of 61.4%.
The primary arms dealer for the global AI infrastructure buildout, with leadership in the most critical and fastest-growing segments of semiconductor manufacturing.
AMAT is capitalizing on the AI-driven demand surge for high-performance chips. Its business is inflecting positively as customer spending shifts to its areas of strength: leading-edge logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging. With customers providing unprecedented long-range visibility via 8-quarter forecasts, the company is ramping capacity to meet what it sees as sustained, multi-year growth.
Announcements of new large-scale fab construction projects by major foundry or memory customers; continued upward revisions to company guidance; reports of tightening capacity in the semiconductor equipment supply chain.
A significant slowdown in AI-related capital spending by cloud service providers; major delays or cancellations of new fab projects; further tightening of U.S. export controls on semiconductor technology to China.
Short-term stock price volatility; minor quarterly fluctuations in the ICAPS (IoT, Communications, Automotive, Power, Sensors) business, which is currently expected to be flat.
Repricing Catalyst
The significant upward revision of its calendar 2026 semiconductor equipment business growth forecast to over 30%, driven by accelerating and diversifying AI demand and customers finding new ways to add clean room space.
Semiconductor Systems
$20.3B TTM (72% of Total) · 34% MarginWhat It Is
This segment sells a wide range of capital equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips to customers in the foundry, logic, and memory (DRAM and NAND) markets. This includes equipment for patterning, transistor and interconnect fabrication, process control, and advanced packaging.
Who Pays & How
Semiconductor chip manufacturers pay for this equipment to make strategic investments in new capacity and technology transitions, driven by demand for end-products like AI servers, smartphones, and PCs. They choose AMAT for its comprehensive portfolio and ability to solve key technical challenges.
Competition
Applied Global Services (AGS)
$6.6B TTM (23% of Total) · 29% MarginWhat It Is
This segment provides services, spare parts, and factory automation software to customer fabrication plants globally. It supports AMAT's large installed base of semiconductor and other equipment.
Who Pays & How
Semiconductor manufacturers pay for AGS products to optimize the performance of their existing equipment, shorten ramp times, improve system performance, and optimize factory output and operating costs.
Competition
Corporate and Other
$1.3B TTM (5% of Total) · -69% MarginWhat It Is
Includes revenues from products not in the reportable segments, such as the display business which manufactures equipment for that industry. It also includes certain unallocated corporate operating expenses.
Who Pays & How
Manufacturers in industries like display pay for this equipment.
Competition
Applied Materials — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Resources |
| SEMI |
| Semiconductor Digest |
| Semiconductor Today |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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