Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Sustainable Aviation.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Sustainable Aviation.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ALK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Alaska Air reported a significant profit miss for Q3 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.05, less than half of the $2.25 earned in the same quarter last year and falling below analyst expectations. This underperformance was primarily due to elevated fuel costs, increased labor expenses, and higher maintenance costs, which significantly compressed the company's profit margins.

2. The company issued a weaker-than-expected profit outlook for both Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025. Alaska Air projected an adjusted profit of at least $0.40 for the fourth quarter, below analyst estimates of $0.88, and a full-year profit of at least $2.40, significantly lower than the $2.93 analysts anticipated.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALK Return-23%0%-18%-9%66%-34%-37%
Peers Return-29%-3%-26%2%62%-6%-22%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALK Win Rate58%42%50%50%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate44%44%46%42%67%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALK Max Drawdown-65%-11%-26%-28%-16%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-13%-35%-23%-13%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU, CAKR. See ALK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/1/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven456 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven360 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven87.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven311.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven639 days1480 days

Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU, CAKR


In The Past

Alaska Air's stock fell -57.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -57.9% loss requires a 137.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Alaska Air (ALK)

Better Bets than Alaska Air (ALK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.1%6.1%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
5.0%5.0%0.0%
ALK_7312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312020ALKAlaska AirDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
41.8%68.5%-1.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.1%6.1%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
5.0%5.0%0.0%
ALK_7312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312020ALKAlaska AirDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
41.8%68.5%-1.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alaska Air

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ALKDALUALLUVJBLUCAKRMedian
NameAlaska A.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.JetBlue .Cambodia. 
Mkt Price42.5264.15101.1234.774.47-42.52
Mkt Cap4.941.632.718.21.6-18.2
Rev LTM14,14162,92058,36827,5519,095-27,551
Op Inc LTM6036,0725,165315-222-603
FCF LTM-543,0743,710-250-1,354--54
FCF 3Y Avg-2921,8351,783-1,019-1,156--292
CFO LTM1,3387,9769,3692,024-160-2,024
CFO 3Y Avg1,1967,2538,2201,917153-1,917

Growth & Margins

ALKDALUALLUVJBLUCAKRMedian
NameAlaska A.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.JetBlue .Cambodia. 
Rev Chg LTM31.5%4.3%4.2%0.6%-2.5%-4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.5%10.8%13.2%6.8%2.3%-10.8%
Rev Chg Q22.6%6.4%2.6%1.1%-1.8%-2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.2%1.6%0.7%0.3%-0.5%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM4.3%9.7%8.8%1.1%-2.4%-4.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.9%9.5%9.2%0.3%-1.0%-6.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.7%0.3%-0.5%-0.0%-0.9%--0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM9.5%12.7%16.1%7.3%-1.8%-9.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.3%12.1%14.8%7.3%1.5%-10.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.4%4.9%6.4%-0.9%-14.9%--0.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.7%3.0%3.1%-3.8%-12.4%--2.7%

Valuation

ALKDALUALLUVJBLUCAKRMedian
NameAlaska A.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.JetBlue .Cambodia. 
Mkt Cap4.941.632.718.21.6-18.2
P/S0.40.60.50.60.2-0.5
P/EBIT13.95.65.727.1-28.0-5.7
P/E38.38.09.544.0-3.8-9.5
P/CFO4.34.63.38.2-11.2-4.3
Total Yield2.6%13.2%10.5%4.7%-26.2%-4.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.0%2.4%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.8%5.7%7.7%-5.9%-60.1%--5.8%
D/E1.10.61.00.35.3-1.0
Net D/E0.70.50.60.13.8-0.6

Returns

ALKDALUALLUVJBLUCAKRMedian
NameAlaska A.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.JetBlue .Cambodia. 
1M Rtn1.9%11.8%7.5%14.8%6.4%-7.5%
3M Rtn-32.3%4.2%-3.7%5.7%-16.4%--3.7%
6M Rtn-16.5%33.1%24.5%6.2%-15.3%-6.2%
12M Rtn-19.2%1.7%4.4%9.9%-25.1%-1.7%
3Y Rtn-9.0%84.7%130.4%-6.4%-43.7%--6.4%
1M Excs Rtn2.9%10.3%6.5%14.5%10.6%-10.3%
3M Excs Rtn-37.7%-1.3%-9.1%0.2%-21.9%--9.1%
6M Excs Rtn-31.8%18.2%12.0%-9.9%-26.7%--9.9%
12M Excs Rtn-34.2%-13.1%-9.4%-4.1%-40.7%--13.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-77.6%22.5%62.7%-72.7%-112.9%--72.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mainline19,93719,73319,25819,75419,207
Horizon1,3521,1571,2121,1701,266
Consolidating & Other-6,676-6,704-6,519-6,878-7,480
Total14,61314,18613,95114,04612,993


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,982,338
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.6%
Average Daily Volume3,561,979
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.24
Basic Shares Quantity115,287,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.9%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/24/20252.3%-4.7%-8.0%
7/23/2025-5.7%-1.0%1.9%
4/23/2025-10.0%-4.0%8.7%
1/22/20252.2%7.1%4.1%
10/31/20241.4%9.2%11.3%
7/17/2024-6.9%-5.5%-11.8%
4/18/20241.3%0.2%-2.6%
1/25/2024-1.7%-3.1%0.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121014
# Negative121410
Median Positive2.0%2.2%7.7%
Median Negative-1.9%-4.5%-7.3%
Max Positive3.4%9.2%46.1%
Max Negative-10.0%-9.4%-20.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022213202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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