Alaska Air (ALK)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $36.17 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Alaska Air (ALK)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $36.17Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Sustainable Aviation. | Key risksALK key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the troubled Boeing 737 MAX fleet for operations and growth and [2] operational disruptions from recent, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Sustainable Aviation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4% |
| Key risksALK key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the troubled Boeing 737 MAX fleet for operations and growth and [2] operational disruptions from recent, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Alaska Air (ALK) stock has lost about 15% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Decline in Q4 2025 Financial Performance and Cautious 2026 Outlook.
Alaska Air Group reported a substantial year-over-year decrease in its GAAP net income and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 compared to 2024. The GAAP net income for Q4 2025 was $21 million, a notable drop from $71 million in Q4 2024, and the full-year 2025 adjusted EPS was $2.44, significantly lower than $4.87 in 2024. Furthermore, the company issued cautious Q1 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, projecting a loss ranging from -$1.50 to -$0.50, despite exceeding its Q4 2025 adjusted EPS expectations.
2. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets.
In early 2026, several prominent Wall Street analysts downgraded Alaska Air Group's stock and lowered their price targets, indicating a less optimistic outlook from the financial community. For example, Wall Street Zen downgraded ALK from a "hold" to a "sell" rating on March 21, 2026. Major firms like UBS, Citigroup, and TD Cowen also reduced their price targets in March 2026, with UBS cutting its target to $53 from $60, Citigroup to $51 from $69, and TD Cowen to $54 from $63.
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1. Significant Decline in Q4 2025 Financial Performance and Cautious 2026 Outlook.
Alaska Air Group reported a substantial year-over-year decrease in its GAAP net income and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 compared to 2024. The GAAP net income for Q4 2025 was $21 million, a notable drop from $71 million in Q4 2024, and the full-year 2025 adjusted EPS was $2.44, significantly lower than $4.87 in 2024. Furthermore, the company issued cautious Q1 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, projecting a loss ranging from -$1.50 to -$0.50, despite exceeding its Q4 2025 adjusted EPS expectations.
2. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets.
In early 2026, several prominent Wall Street analysts downgraded Alaska Air Group's stock and lowered their price targets, indicating a less optimistic outlook from the financial community. For example, Wall Street Zen downgraded ALK from a "hold" to a "sell" rating on March 21, 2026. Major firms like UBS, Citigroup, and TD Cowen also reduced their price targets in March 2026, with UBS cutting its target to $53 from $60, Citigroup to $51 from $69, and TD Cowen to $54 from $63.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.6% change in ALK stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.86 | 36.16 | -15.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,141 | 14,239 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 0.7% | -33.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.9 | 41.8 | 26.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 116 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALK | -15.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 55.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.9% | 58.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -42.4% change in ALK stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -69.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.78 | 36.16 | -42.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,447 | 14,239 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.3% | 0.7% | -69.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.8 | 41.8 | 75.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 116 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -42.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALK | -42.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 46.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.5% | 54.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -50.0% change in ALK stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 72.28 | 36.16 | -50.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,735 | 14,239 | 21.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 0.7% | -79.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.1 | 41.8 | 81.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 126 | 116 | 9.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -50.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALK | -50.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 65.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 64.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.4% change in ALK stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -60.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.83 | 36.16 | -24.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,646 | 14,239 | 47.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.6% | 0.7% | 16.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 105.0 | 41.8 | -60.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 127 | 116 | 10.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALK | -24.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 51.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 65.1% | 55.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALK Return | 0% | -18% | -9% | 66% | -22% | -23% | -25% |
| Peers Return | 0% | -27% | 3% | 55% | 1% | -11% | 5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALK Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 47% | 42% | 63% | 52% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALK Max Drawdown | -11% | -26% | -28% | -16% | -42% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -35% | -21% | -17% | -43% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL, JBLU. See ALK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 311.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 639 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL, JBLU
In The Past
Alaska Air's stock fell -57.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -57.9% loss requires a 137.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Alaska Air (ALK)
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
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```html- The JetBlue of the West Coast.
- A major US domestic airline, similar to a more geographically focused Delta or United.
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```html- Passenger Air Transportation: Alaska Air provides scheduled air travel services for individuals and groups to approximately 120 destinations across North America.
- Cargo Air Transportation: The company offers freight and express parcel delivery services utilizing its air network.
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Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) primarily sells its services to individuals, although it also provides cargo services. Its major customer categories include:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals traveling for vacations, holidays, family visits, and other non-business related reasons.
- Business Travelers: Individuals traveling for work, conferences, meetings, and corporate events. While often funded by companies, the direct customers are the individuals utilizing the flight services.
- Cargo Customers: Businesses and individuals utilizing Alaska Air's cargo services to transport goods and freight across its network.
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- The Boeing Company (BA)
- Embraer S.A. (ERJ)
- GE Aerospace (GE)
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Here is the management team for Alaska Air (symbol: ALK):Ben Minicucci President and Chief Executive Officer
Ben Minicucci was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Alaska Air Group on March 31, 2021. He joined Alaska Airlines in 2004, holding various leadership roles including staff vice president of maintenance, executive vice president of operations, and chief operating officer. In 2016, he became President of Alaska Airlines and also served as CEO of Virgin America during its acquisition by Alaska Air Group. Before his tenure at Alaska, Minicucci served 14 years in the Canadian Armed Forces and held several technical operations positions at Air Canada, where he rose to vice president of heavy maintenance. He holds bachelor's and master's degrees in mechanical engineering from the Royal Military College of Canada and completed the advanced management program at Harvard Business School.
Shane Tackett Executive Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Shane Tackett currently serves as the Executive Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer for Alaska Air Group, a position he was promoted to in March 2020. He joined Alaska in 2000 as an analyst in the real estate division and steadily advanced through various roles, including director and managing director of corporate financial planning and analysis. He also served as vice president of labor relations, where he negotiated six long-term labor contracts, and later as vice president of revenue management and e-commerce. Tackett earned a Bachelor of Business Administration with a Finance concentration from Pacific Lutheran University and an MBA from the University of Washington's Foster School of Business.
Jason Berry Chief Operating Officer, Alaska Airlines
Jason Berry became the Chief Operating Officer of Alaska Airlines, effective November 3, 2025. Prior to this role, he served as President of Horizon Air and Executive Vice President of Cargo for Alaska Air Group. His role is crucial for integrating operations, particularly with the ongoing Hawaiian Airlines acquisition.
Andy Schneider President and Chief Executive Officer, Horizon Air
Andy Schneider was appointed CEO and President of Horizon Air, a subsidiary of Alaska Air Group, in September 2025. He brings more than 35 years of experience with Alaska Air Group, having held various operations roles, and previously served as Senior Vice President of People at Alaska Airlines.
Constance von Muehlen Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Alaska Airlines (transitioning to advisory role)
Constance von Muehlen served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Alaska Airlines, a position she assumed on April 3, 2021. She is transitioning from this role, remaining with the company in an advisory capacity until February 2026. With over 30 years of aviation experience, she previously served as a Captain in the U.S. Army, flying Black Hawk helicopters. Von Muehlen joined Alaska in 2011 as Director of Engine Maintenance and later served as COO of Horizon Air from 2018 to 2019, and as senior vice president of maintenance and engineering for Alaska Airlines.
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Here are the key risks to Alaska Air (symbol: ALK):
- Rising Operating Expenses: Alaska Air Group faces significant pressure from surging operating expenses, particularly related to fuel, labor, and maintenance costs. The company's operating expenses surged, driven primarily by escalating labor and maintenance costs, impacting its profitability. Rising oil prices are a key cost driver for airlines, and concerns exist that higher fuel expenses could pressure margins, especially since many carriers, including Alaska Air, may have limited fuel hedging in place, leaving them more exposed to spot-price swings.
- Boeing 737 MAX Fleet Issues: Alaska Air's fleet primarily consists of Boeing 737 aircraft, including the 737 MAX models. Recent safety incidents and temporary groundings of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft due to structural issues pose operational challenges and potential reputational damage for the airline. A heavy reliance on this particular aircraft type means that further issues could lead to significant disruptions in operations and financial vulnerabilities.
- Technology, Cybersecurity, and Loyalty Program Vulnerabilities: Alaska Air faces risks related to structural failures in its loyalty program, weak technology controls, and potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities. There have been allegations of repeated compromises of the mileage program, allowing unauthorized access and redemption of miles, with concerns about the company's response to underlying system vulnerabilities. Given that the loyalty program is a substantial revenue generator, mismanagement or security breaches could lead to significant financial risk, regulatory scrutiny, and damage to brand reputation. Additionally, the company has experienced recent IT system disruptions that have impacted profit outlooks.
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The addressable markets for Alaska Air's main products and services in North America are as follows:
- North America Passenger Air Transportation Market: The North American airlines industry, which covers passenger air transportation, recorded revenues of $482.5 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow.
- North America Air Cargo Market: This market was valued at USD 54.12 billion in 2023 and USD 55.45 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach US$ 43.20 billion by 2028.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Alaska Air (ALK) over the next 2-3 years:
- Synergies from the Hawaiian Airlines Acquisition: Alaska Air Group completed its acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines in September 2024, a strategic move expected to unlock significant value. The "Alaska Accelerate" three-year strategic plan aims to deliver $1 billion in incremental profit by 2027, with acquisition synergy estimates increasing to at least $500 million by 2027. This integration is a pivotal driver for expanding long-haul capabilities and entering new international markets.
- Expanded International Network and Seattle Global Gateway: The company is establishing Seattle as a new global gateway, launching nonstop routes to Tokyo Narita (NRT) in May 2025 and Seoul Incheon (ICN) in October 2025. Further international expansion includes transatlantic routes to London Heathrow and Reykjavik planned for Spring 2026, followed by Rome in May 2026. This network expansion, supported by the integration of Hawaiian Airlines' widebody aircraft, is expected to significantly bolster commercial growth.
- Growth in Premium Cabin Offerings and Enhanced Loyalty Program: Alaska Air is actively scaling its premium experience by increasing the premium seat mix on its Boeing narrowbody fleet to 29% and developing plans for widebody fleet premium cabins. Premium cabin demand has been robust, with revenue increasing 7.1% year-over-year in Q4 2025 and now contributing 36% of total revenue. Additionally, the company is introducing a premium credit card with enhanced benefits and expanding its lounge program, and the revamped "Atmos Rewards" loyalty program post-Hawaiian Airlines acquisition is designed to attract higher-value travelers.
- Recovery in Corporate Travel Demand: Alaska Air has observed a strong rebound in corporate travel. Managed corporate revenue for Q1 2026 saw a year-over-year increase of approximately 20% in bookings, driven by higher volume rather than just price increases. This sustained recovery in corporate demand is anticipated to be a significant contributor to revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Alaska Air Group approved a new $1 billion share repurchase program in December 2024, to be executed over the following four years.
- The company repurchased $570 million of common stock in 2025.
- Share buybacks amounted to $312 million in 2024 and $137 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Share issuance primarily consisted of equity compensation to executives, such as Performance Stock Unit (PSU) vesting and Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) grants, with some shares disposed to cover tax obligations.
Outbound Investments
- Alaska Air Group acquired Hawaiian Airlines, an investment anticipated to generate at least $500 million in synergies.
- The company plans to invest over $3 billion in hub airports to enhance the guest experience and expand global operations, including into Europe, starting in early 2026.
- Hawaiian Airlines, a subsidiary, intends to invest more than $600 million over the next five years from January 2026 to modernize infrastructure and improve the guest experience in Hawaii.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were projected to be between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion for 2025, with similar forecasts for 2026.
- A primary focus of capital expenditures is fleet expansion, marked by the largest-ever order in January 2026 for 110 new Boeing jets (105 737-10 and 5 787 aircraft), with deliveries extending through 2035.
- The company also opened a new 660,000-square-foot global training facility in early 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ALK.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
| 02132026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -3.0% |
| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 02132026 | PCTY | Paylocity | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -4.8% |
| 07312020 | ALK | Alaska Air | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.8% | 68.5% | -1.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.8 |
| Rev LTM | 41,348 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,090 |
| FCF LTM | -584 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -73 |
| CFO LTM | 1,886 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,419 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.8 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 25.2 |
| P/CFO | 3.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| D/E | 1.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -23.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -18.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $36.16 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/03/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -43.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $48.45 | $50.09 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -25.4% | -27.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 53.0% | 54.2% |
| Downside Capture | 2.14 | 1.64 |
| Upside Capture | 261.30 | 155.26 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 57.3% | 63.1% |
ALK Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.62 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 1.63 | 1.81 | 1.44 |
| Up Beta | 3.84 | 2.73 | 1.91 | 1.40 | 1.88 | 1.65 |
| Down Beta | -0.54 | 1.01 | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.65 | 1.49 |
| Up Capture | 369% | 342% | 440% | 136% | 203% | 148% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 35 | 60 | 124 | 373 |
| Down Capture | 279% | 249% | 219% | 185% | 148% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 26 | 64 | 126 | 376 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK | -32.5% | 54.2% | -0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.5% | 19.2% | 0.84 | 63.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 63.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 13.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 52.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 44.0% | -0.41 | 32.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK | -11.9% | 41.0% | -0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.3% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 59.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 55.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 43.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.7% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 23.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK | -7.1% | 42.6% | -0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 19.8% | 0.58 | 64.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 55.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 16.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 49.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 15.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/22/2026 | 4.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% |
| 10/24/2025 | 2.3% | -4.7% | -8.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | -5.7% | -1.0% | 1.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | -10.0% | -4.0% | 8.7% |
| 1/22/2025 | 2.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 1.4% | 9.2% | 11.3% |
| 7/17/2024 | -6.9% | -5.5% | -11.8% |
| 4/18/2024 | 1.3% | 0.2% | -2.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 2.4% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -4.2% | -8.0% |
| Max Positive | 4.5% | 9.2% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -10.0% | -9.4% | -20.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/24/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Capacity (ASMs) % change | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -40.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.03 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted earnings (loss) per share | -1.5 | -1 | -0.5 | -350.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.4 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Capacity (ASMs) % change | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 25.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.02 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted earnings (loss) per share | 3.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 108.3% | Raised | Guidance: 2.4 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 1.40 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 1.50 Bil | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levine, Kyle B | SVP LEGAL & GEN COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 57.75 | 5,914 | 341,534 | 1,207,957 | Form |
| 2 | Tackett, Shane R | EVP AND CFO | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 57.06 | 5,000 | 285,315 | 2,472,825 | Form |
| 3 | Harrison, Andrew R | EVP AND CCO | Direct | Sell | 7292025 | 53.22 | 7,600 | 404,501 | 1,007,527 | Form |
| 4 | Halverson, Emily | VP Finance, Controller & Treas | Direct | Sell | 6062025 | 51.34 | 2,946 | 151,251 | 423,719 | Form |
| 5 | Harrison, Andrew R | EVP AND CCO | Direct | Sell | 5202025 | 53.51 | 7,500 | 401,330 | 1,419,639 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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