Alaska Air (ALK)
Market Price (12/2/2025): $42.52 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Alaska Air (ALK)
Market Price (12/2/2025): $42.52Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Sustainable Aviation. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Sustainable Aviation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ALK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Alaska Air reported a significant profit miss for Q3 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.05, less than half of the $2.25 earned in the same quarter last year and falling below analyst expectations. This underperformance was primarily due to elevated fuel costs, increased labor expenses, and higher maintenance costs, which significantly compressed the company's profit margins.
2. The company issued a weaker-than-expected profit outlook for both Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025. Alaska Air projected an adjusted profit of at least $0.40 for the fourth quarter, below analyst estimates of $0.88, and a full-year profit of at least $2.40, significantly lower than the $2.93 analysts anticipated.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALK Return | -23% | 0% | -18% | -9% | 66% | -34% | -37% |
| Peers Return | -29% | -3% | -26% | 2% | 62% | -6% | -22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALK Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 67% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALK Max Drawdown | -65% | -11% | -26% | -28% | -16% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -66% | -13% | -35% | -23% | -13% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU, CAKR. See ALK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/1/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 311.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 639 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU, CAKR
In The Past
Alaska Air's stock fell -57.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -57.9% loss requires a 137.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ALK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312020 | ALK | Alaska Air | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.8% | 68.5% | -1.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312020 | ALK | Alaska Air | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.8% | 68.5% | -1.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alaska Air
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.2 |
| Rev LTM | 27,551 |
| Op Inc LTM | 603 |
| FCF LTM | -54 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -292 |
| CFO LTM | 2,024 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,917 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.2 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/CFO | 4.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/24/2025 | 2.3% | -4.7% | -8.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | -5.7% | -1.0% | 1.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | -10.0% | -4.0% | 8.7% |
| 1/22/2025 | 2.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 1.4% | 9.2% | 11.3% |
| 7/17/2024 | -6.9% | -5.5% | -11.8% |
| 4/18/2024 | 1.3% | 0.2% | -2.6% |
| 1/25/2024 | -1.7% | -3.1% | 0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 2.2% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.5% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 3.4% | 9.2% | 46.1% |
| Max Negative | -10.0% | -9.4% | -20.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
