Tearsheet

Alaska Air (ALK)


Market Price (10/26/2025): $43.94 | Market Cap: $5.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Alaska Air (ALK)


Market Price (10/26/2025): $43.94
Market Cap: $5.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 82%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
  
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 82%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

ALK Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALK Return-23%0%-18%-9%66%-32%-35%
Peers Return-32%0%-27%3%55%-12%-31%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALK Win Rate58%42%50%50%58%44% 
Peers Win Rate42%45%47%42%63%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALK Max Drawdown-65%-11%-26%-28%-16%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-12%-35%-21%-17%-43% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU, AAL. See ALK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven456 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven360 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven87.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven311.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven639 days1480 days

Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU, AAL


In The Past

Alaska Air's stock fell -57.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -57.9% loss requires a 137.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alaska Air (ALK)

Better Bets than Alaska Air (ALK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FCN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025FCNFTI ConsultingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-6.2%
ODFL_9122025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09122025ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.1%-6.1%-7.3%
EFX_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025EFXEquifaxMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.1%-5.1%-8.5%
UHAL_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025UHALU-HaulMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.4%-3.4%-5.6%
BWXT_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025BWXTBWX TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
25.5%25.5%-1.2%
ALK_7312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312020ALKAlaska AirDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
41.8%68.5%-1.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FCN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025FCNFTI ConsultingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-6.2%
ODFL_9122025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09122025ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.1%-6.1%-7.3%
EFX_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025EFXEquifaxMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.1%-5.1%-8.5%
UHAL_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025UHALU-HaulMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.4%-3.4%-5.6%
BWXT_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025BWXTBWX TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
25.5%25.5%-1.2%
ALK_7312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312020ALKAlaska AirDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
41.8%68.5%-1.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alaska Air

Financials

ALKDALUALLUVJBLUAALMedian
NameAlaska A.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.JetBlue .American. 
Mkt Price43.9460.9099.0032.104.5713.7538.02
Mkt Cap5.239.532.016.81.79.112.9
Rev LTM13,44762,92058,36827,5519,13854,29440,922
Op Inc LTM8066,0725,165315-1382,2591,532
FCF LTM-83,0743,710-250-1,245882437
FCF 3Y Avg-3411,8351,783-1,019-1,094962311
CFO LTM1,4277,9769,3692,024-473,7712,898
CFO 3Y Avg1,1777,2538,2201,9172083,6672,792

Growth & Margins

ALKDALUALLUVJBLUAALMedian
NameAlaska A.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.JetBlue .American. 
Rev Chg LTM27.8%4.3%4.2%0.6%-1.9%1.3%2.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg18.6%10.8%13.2%6.8%5.4%6.5%8.8%
Rev Chg Q27.9%6.4%2.6%1.1%-3.0%0.3%1.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.4%1.6%0.7%0.3%-0.8%0.1%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM6.0%9.7%8.8%1.1%-1.5%4.2%5.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.2%9.5%9.2%0.3%-0.2%6.1%6.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.5%0.3%-0.5%-0.0%-0.3%-0.9%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM10.6%12.7%16.1%7.3%-0.5%6.9%9.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.3%12.1%14.8%7.3%2.1%6.9%8.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.1%4.9%6.4%-0.9%-13.6%1.6%0.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.3%3.0%3.1%-3.8%-11.8%1.8%-0.7%

Valuation

ALKDALUALLUVJBLUAALMedian
NameAlaska A.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.JetBlue .American. 
Mkt Cap5.239.532.016.81.79.112.9
P/S0.40.60.50.60.20.20.5
P/EBIT8.66.05.827.3235.93.57.3
P/E16.78.59.744.3-4.315.112.4
P/CFO3.75.03.48.3-35.12.43.5
Total Yield6.0%12.3%10.2%4.6%-23.4%6.6%6.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.0%2.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.6%5.7%7.7%-5.9%-58.1%11.6%0.1%
D/E1.20.51.00.35.74.01.1
Net D/E0.80.40.60.13.83.20.7

Returns

ALKDALUALLUVJBLUAALMedian
NameAlaska A.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.JetBlue .American. 
1M Rtn-14.0%6.9%1.4%-1.0%-9.1%21.8%0.2%
3M Rtn-16.1%11.8%9.0%-2.5%4.3%19.8%6.7%
6M Rtn4.4%48.0%45.6%22.9%17.8%41.3%32.1%
12M Rtn-3.9%14.0%33.1%11.9%-36.4%4.8%8.3%
3Y Rtn1.2%83.8%131.0%-2.4%-40.0%-1.4%-0.1%
1M Excs Rtn-17.5%4.9%-2.7%-2.0%-10.5%18.2%-2.3%
3M Excs Rtn-25.7%4.0%1.2%-6.7%-1.5%12.7%-0.2%
6M Excs Rtn-18.5%25.1%22.7%0.0%-5.1%18.4%9.2%
12M Excs Rtn-20.9%-3.5%17.2%-8.1%-54.1%-9.7%-8.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-79.2%8.9%70.2%-79.8%-117.1%-85.3%-79.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Alaska Airlines8,8538,081   
Regional1,5651,5611,1477341,394
Other Revenue84   
Hawaiian Airlines00   
Consolidating & Other  -402-383-445
Horizon  406386451
Mainline  5,0252,8297,381
Special Items  00 
Total10,4269,6466,1763,5668,781


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Alaska Airlines19,937    
Hawaiian Airlines0    
Consolidating & Other-5,324   -7,480
Horizon    1,266
Mainline    19,207
Total14,613   12,993


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,445,202
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202527.3%
Average Daily Volume3,190,911
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.65
Basic Shares Quantity118,847,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/24/2025   
7/23/2025-5.7%-1.0%1.9%
4/23/2025-10.0%-4.0%8.7%
1/22/20252.2%7.1%4.1%
10/31/20241.4%9.2%11.3%
7/17/2024-6.9%-5.5%-11.8%
4/18/20241.3%0.2%-2.6%
1/25/20244.5%0.0%7.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131114
# Negative111310
Median Positive2.0%1.9%8.3%
Median Negative-1.4%-4.1%-8.2%
Max Positive4.5%9.2%36.6%
Max Negative-10.0%-9.4%-20.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022213202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LEVINE KYLE BSVP LEGAL & GEN COUNSEL8192025Sell57.755,914341,5341,207,957Form
1TACKETT SHANE REVP AND CFO8142025Sell57.065,000285,3152,472,825Form
2HARRISON ANDREW REVP AND CCO7292025Sell53.227,600404,5011,007,527Form
3HALVERSON EMILYVP Finance, Controller & Treas6062025Sell51.372,156110,756442,407Form
4HARRISON ANDREW REVP AND CCO5202025Sell53.517,500401,3301,419,639Form