Tearsheet

Alaska Air (ALK)

Market Price (4/11/2026): $39.55 | Market Cap: $4.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Alaska Air (ALK)

Market Price (4/11/2026): $39.55
Market Cap: $4.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.0 Bil

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Sustainable Aviation.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105%

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%

Key risks
ALK key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the troubled Boeing 737 MAX fleet for operations and growth and [2] operational disruptions from recent, Show more.

0	Strong revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
1	Stock buyback support Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.0 Bil
2	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Sustainable Aviation.
3	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72%
4	Meaningful short interest Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
5	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105%
6	Not cash flow generative FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%
7	Key risks ALK key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the troubled Boeing 737 MAX fleet for operations and growth and [2] operational disruptions from recent, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	4/11/26	2025	2024	2023	2022
Share Price CYE	$39.55	$49.22	$42.99	$41.96	$58.01
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	4.6	6.1	5.4	5.3	7.3
Total Debt ($ Bil)	6.9	6.3	3.8	3.7	4.0
Total Cash ($ Bil)	2.1	2.5	2.3	2.4	2.9
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	9.3	12.4	9.2	9.0	11.3
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.0
P/EBIT TTM	12.0	9.2	12.1	30.4	10.3
P/E TTM	45.7	16.8	22.1	90.7	15.7
P/FCF TTM	-13.5	30.3	-16.0	-34.7	12.2
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	1.7	1.4	1.6	1.3	1.6
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	11.6	9.6	11.8	9.3	10.5
P/E TTM (Sector)	15.5	14.0	16.3	13.1	14.0
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	12.3	11.3	13.6	7.9	10.5

	4/11/26	2025	2024
Share Price CYE	$39.55	$49.22	$42.99
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	4.6	6.1	5.4
Total Debt ($ Bil)	6.9	6.3	3.8
Total Cash ($ Bil)	2.1	2.5	2.3
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	9.3	12.4	9.2
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	0.3	0.5	0.5
P/EBIT TTM	12.0	9.2	12.1
P/E TTM	45.7	16.8	22.1
P/FCF TTM	-13.5	30.3	-16.0
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	1.7	1.4	1.6
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	11.6	9.6	11.8
P/E TTM (Sector)	15.5	14.0	16.3
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	12.3	11.3	13.6

	ALK	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	GOOD
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	14.2
Rev Chg Q	2.8%	7.5%
Rev Chg LTM	21.3%	6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	14.0%	5.7%
PROFITABILITY	VERY POOR
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.6
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	1.2
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.1
Op Mgn LTM	3.9%	18.6%
CFO/Rev LTM	8.8%	20.6%
Net Inc Mgn	0.7%	12.8%
VALUATION	HIGH
P/S	0.3	3.3
P/CFO	3.7	15.6
P/FCF	-13.5	20.1
P/E	45.7	24.4
STABILITY	FAIR
Debt/Equity	1.51	0.21
Cash/Assets	0.10	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Total Fleet Size	408	11052025	Link
Mainline Fleet Size	244	11022025	Link
Destinations Served	128	11052025	Link
Number of Routes	914	11052025	Link
Passenger Load Factor	82.5%	9302025	Link
Available Seat Miles (ASMs) % Change vs. Pro Forma 2024	-0.7%	9302025	Link
Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs)	20.18 billion	6302025	Link
Number of Global Airline Partners	30	10162024	Link

Upcoming
4/20/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $3.0 Bil (E) EPS: $-1.49 (E)

Price Chart

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Alaska Air (ALK) stock has lost about 20% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Alaska Air Group significantly lowered its first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance. The company revised its projection to an adjusted loss per share in the range of -$1.50 to -$2.00, a wider loss than its prior guidance of -$0.50 to -$1.50 per share.

2. The revised outlook was largely driven by a substantial increase in fuel costs. Alaska Air Group anticipated economic fuel prices to be between $2.90 and $3.00 per gallon for Q1 2026, marking a considerable rise from its 2025 average of $2.52 per gallon. This surge in fuel expenses was projected to create an incremental EPS headwind of at least -$0.70.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -21.5% change in ALK stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

(LTM values as of)	12312025	4102026	Change
Stock Price ($)	50.30	39.50	-21.5%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	14,141	14,239	0.7%
Net Income Margin (%)	1.1%	0.7%	-33.8%
P/E Multiple	38.7	45.6	18.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	115	116	-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution			-21.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026

	Return	Correlation
ALK	-21.5%
Market (SPY)	-5.4%	57.6%
Sector (XLI)	10.6%	68.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -20.7% change in ALK stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -69.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

(LTM values as of)	9302025	4102026	Change
Stock Price ($)	49.78	39.50	-20.7%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	13,447	14,239	5.9%
Net Income Margin (%)	2.3%	0.7%	-69.8%
P/E Multiple	18.9	45.6	141.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	119	116	2.9%
Cumulative Contribution			-20.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026

	Return	Correlation
ALK	-20.7%
Market (SPY)	-2.9%	50.9%
Sector (XLI)	11.6%	64.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -19.7% change in ALK stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

(LTM values as of)	3312025	4102026	Change
Stock Price ($)	49.22	39.50	-19.7%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	11,735	14,239	21.3%
Net Income Margin (%)	3.4%	0.7%	-79.1%
P/E Multiple	15.7	45.6	190.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	126	116	9.1%
Cumulative Contribution			-19.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026

	Return	Correlation
ALK	-19.7%
Market (SPY)	16.3%	63.2%
Sector (XLI)	32.3%	65.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -5.9% change in ALK stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	3312023	4102026	Change
Stock Price ($)	41.96	39.50	-5.9%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	9,646	14,239	47.6%
Net Income Margin (%)	0.6%	0.7%	16.8%
P/E Multiple	92.1	45.6	-50.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	127	116	10.2%
Cumulative Contribution			-5.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026

	Return	Correlation
ALK	-5.9%
Market (SPY)	63.3%	52.4%
Sector (XLI)	76.8%	56.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	Total [1]
Returns
ALK Return	0%	-18%	-9%	66%	-22%	-21%	-23%
Peers Return	0%	-27%	3%	55%	1%	-7%	9%
S&P 500 Return	27%	-19%	24%	23%	16%	-0%	82%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALK Win Rate	42%	50%	50%	58%	50%	75%
Peers Win Rate	45%	47%	42%	63%	52%	55%
S&P 500 Win Rate	75%	42%	67%	75%	67%	50%
Max Drawdowns [4]
ALK Max Drawdown	-11%	-26%	-28%	-16%	-42%	-32%
Peers Max Drawdown	-12%	-35%	-21%	-17%	-43%	-19%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-1%	-25%	-1%	-2%	-15%	-7%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL, JBLU. See ALK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique Key	Event	ALK	S&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock	2022 Inflation Shock
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss	% Loss	-57.9%	-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	137.3%	34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	456 days	464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic	2020 Covid Pandemic
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss	% Loss	-65.4%	-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	189.3%	51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	360 days	148 days
2018 Correction	2018 Correction
2018 Correction% Loss	% Loss	-46.5%	-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	87.0%	24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	Not Fully Recovered days	120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis	2008 Global Financial Crisis
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss	% Loss	-75.7%	-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	311.8%	131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	639 days	1,480 days

Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL, JBLU

In The Past

Alaska Air's stock fell -57.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -57.9% loss requires a 137.3% gain to breakeven.

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About Alaska Air (ALK)

Business Description Analogies Products Customers Suppliers Management Key Risks Emerging Threats Market Size Revenue Drivers Capital Allocation

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

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The JetBlue of the West Coast.
A major US domestic airline, similar to a more geographically focused Delta or United.

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Passenger Air Transportation: Alaska Air provides scheduled air travel services for individuals and groups to approximately 120 destinations across North America.
Cargo Air Transportation: The company offers freight and express parcel delivery services utilizing its air network.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) primarily sells its services to individuals, although it also provides cargo services. Its major customer categories include:

Leisure Travelers: Individuals traveling for vacations, holidays, family visits, and other non-business related reasons.
Business Travelers: Individuals traveling for work, conferences, meetings, and corporate events. While often funded by companies, the direct customers are the individuals utilizing the flight services.
Cargo Customers: Businesses and individuals utilizing Alaska Air's cargo services to transport goods and freight across its network.

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The Boeing Company (BA)
Embraer S.A. (ERJ)
GE Aerospace (GE)

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Here is the management team for Alaska Air (symbol: ALK):

Ben Minicucci President and Chief Executive Officer

Ben Minicucci was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Alaska Air Group on March 31, 2021. He joined Alaska Airlines in 2004, holding various leadership roles including staff vice president of maintenance, executive vice president of operations, and chief operating officer. In 2016, he became President of Alaska Airlines and also served as CEO of Virgin America during its acquisition by Alaska Air Group. Before his tenure at Alaska, Minicucci served 14 years in the Canadian Armed Forces and held several technical operations positions at Air Canada, where he rose to vice president of heavy maintenance. He holds bachelor's and master's degrees in mechanical engineering from the Royal Military College of Canada and completed the advanced management program at Harvard Business School.

Shane Tackett Executive Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Shane Tackett currently serves as the Executive Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer for Alaska Air Group, a position he was promoted to in March 2020. He joined Alaska in 2000 as an analyst in the real estate division and steadily advanced through various roles, including director and managing director of corporate financial planning and analysis. He also served as vice president of labor relations, where he negotiated six long-term labor contracts, and later as vice president of revenue management and e-commerce. Tackett earned a Bachelor of Business Administration with a Finance concentration from Pacific Lutheran University and an MBA from the University of Washington's Foster School of Business.

Jason Berry Chief Operating Officer, Alaska Airlines

Jason Berry became the Chief Operating Officer of Alaska Airlines, effective November 3, 2025. Prior to this role, he served as President of Horizon Air and Executive Vice President of Cargo for Alaska Air Group. His role is crucial for integrating operations, particularly with the ongoing Hawaiian Airlines acquisition.

Andy Schneider President and Chief Executive Officer, Horizon Air

Andy Schneider was appointed CEO and President of Horizon Air, a subsidiary of Alaska Air Group, in September 2025. He brings more than 35 years of experience with Alaska Air Group, having held various operations roles, and previously served as Senior Vice President of People at Alaska Airlines.

Constance von Muehlen Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Alaska Airlines (transitioning to advisory role)

Constance von Muehlen served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Alaska Airlines, a position she assumed on April 3, 2021. She is transitioning from this role, remaining with the company in an advisory capacity until February 2026. With over 30 years of aviation experience, she previously served as a Captain in the U.S. Army, flying Black Hawk helicopters. Von Muehlen joined Alaska in 2011 as Director of Engine Maintenance and later served as COO of Horizon Air from 2018 to 2019, and as senior vice president of maintenance and engineering for Alaska Airlines.

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Here are the key risks to Alaska Air (symbol: ALK):

Rising Operating Expenses: Alaska Air Group faces significant pressure from surging operating expenses, particularly related to fuel, labor, and maintenance costs. The company's operating expenses surged, driven primarily by escalating labor and maintenance costs, impacting its profitability. Rising oil prices are a key cost driver for airlines, and concerns exist that higher fuel expenses could pressure margins, especially since many carriers, including Alaska Air, may have limited fuel hedging in place, leaving them more exposed to spot-price swings.
Boeing 737 MAX Fleet Issues: Alaska Air's fleet primarily consists of Boeing 737 aircraft, including the 737 MAX models. Recent safety incidents and temporary groundings of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft due to structural issues pose operational challenges and potential reputational damage for the airline. A heavy reliance on this particular aircraft type means that further issues could lead to significant disruptions in operations and financial vulnerabilities.
Technology, Cybersecurity, and Loyalty Program Vulnerabilities: Alaska Air faces risks related to structural failures in its loyalty program, weak technology controls, and potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities. There have been allegations of repeated compromises of the mileage program, allowing unauthorized access and redemption of miles, with concerns about the company's response to underlying system vulnerabilities. Given that the loyalty program is a substantial revenue generator, mismanagement or security breaches could lead to significant financial risk, regulatory scrutiny, and damage to brand reputation. Additionally, the company has experienced recent IT system disruptions that have impacted profit outlooks.

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The addressable markets for Alaska Air's main products and services in North America are as follows:

North America Passenger Air Transportation Market: The North American airlines industry, which covers passenger air transportation, recorded revenues of $482.5 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow.
North America Air Cargo Market: This market was valued at USD 54.12 billion in 2023 and USD 55.45 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach US$ 43.20 billion by 2028.

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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Alaska Air (ALK) over the next 2-3 years:

Synergies from the Hawaiian Airlines Acquisition: Alaska Air Group completed its acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines in September 2024, a strategic move expected to unlock significant value. The "Alaska Accelerate" three-year strategic plan aims to deliver $1 billion in incremental profit by 2027, with acquisition synergy estimates increasing to at least $500 million by 2027. This integration is a pivotal driver for expanding long-haul capabilities and entering new international markets.
Expanded International Network and Seattle Global Gateway: The company is establishing Seattle as a new global gateway, launching nonstop routes to Tokyo Narita (NRT) in May 2025 and Seoul Incheon (ICN) in October 2025. Further international expansion includes transatlantic routes to London Heathrow and Reykjavik planned for Spring 2026, followed by Rome in May 2026. This network expansion, supported by the integration of Hawaiian Airlines' widebody aircraft, is expected to significantly bolster commercial growth.
Growth in Premium Cabin Offerings and Enhanced Loyalty Program: Alaska Air is actively scaling its premium experience by increasing the premium seat mix on its Boeing narrowbody fleet to 29% and developing plans for widebody fleet premium cabins. Premium cabin demand has been robust, with revenue increasing 7.1% year-over-year in Q4 2025 and now contributing 36% of total revenue. Additionally, the company is introducing a premium credit card with enhanced benefits and expanding its lounge program, and the revamped "Atmos Rewards" loyalty program post-Hawaiian Airlines acquisition is designed to attract higher-value travelers.
Recovery in Corporate Travel Demand: Alaska Air has observed a strong rebound in corporate travel. Managed corporate revenue for Q1 2026 saw a year-over-year increase of approximately 20% in bookings, driven by higher volume rather than just price increases. This sustained recovery in corporate demand is anticipated to be a significant contributor to revenue growth.

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Share Repurchases

Alaska Air Group approved a new $1 billion share repurchase program in December 2024, to be executed over the following four years.
The company repurchased $570 million of common stock in 2025.
Share buybacks amounted to $312 million in 2024 and $137 million in 2023.

Share Issuance

Share issuance primarily consisted of equity compensation to executives, such as Performance Stock Unit (PSU) vesting and Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) grants, with some shares disposed to cover tax obligations.

Outbound Investments

Alaska Air Group acquired Hawaiian Airlines, an investment anticipated to generate at least $500 million in synergies.
The company plans to invest over $3 billion in hub airports to enhance the guest experience and expand global operations, including into Europe, starting in early 2026.
Hawaiian Airlines, a subsidiary, intends to invest more than $600 million over the next five years from January 2026 to modernize infrastructure and improve the guest experience in Hawaii.

Capital Expenditures

Capital expenditures were projected to be between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion for 2025, with similar forecasts for 2026.
A primary focus of capital expenditures is fleet expansion, marked by the largest-ever order in January 2026 for 110 new Boeing jets (105 737-10 and 5 787 aircraft), with deliveries extending through 2035.
The company also opened a new 660,000-square-foot global training facility in early 2026.

Interactive Breakdown

Alaska Air Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets vs. Alaska Air (ALK)

INDUSTRY: Passenger Airlines

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 8.3x)

LTM (15.2% | 6.5x)

LATAM Airlines

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: 14.0%)

SRFM (95.0%)

Surf Air Mobility

LTM (15.2%)

LATAM Airlines

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ALK: 3.9%)

LTM (16.4%)

LATAM Airlines

SKYW (15.2%)

SkyWest

DAL (8.8%)

Delta Air Lines

UAL (8.4%)

United Airlines

ALGT (6.7%)

Allegiant Travel

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: 8.8%)

SKYW (23.2%)

SkyWest

ALGT (15.0%)

Allegiant Travel

UAL (14.3%)

United Airlines

SNCY (13.9%)

Sun Country Airlines

DAL (12.9%)

Delta Air Lines

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: -2.4%)

SNCY (7.5%)

Sun Country Airlines

SKYW (7.1%)

SkyWest

DAL (6.0%)

Delta Air Lines

UAL (4.3%)

United Airlines

ALGT (2.9%)

Allegiant Travel

Higher Total Yield (Value for ALK: 2.2%)

LTM (11.5%)

LATAM Airlines

SKYW (11.3%)

SkyWest

UAL (10.7%)

United Airlines

DAL (10.4%)

Delta Air Lines

LUV (3.5%)

Southwest Airlines

SECTOR: Industrials

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 0.3x)

CNXC (16.0% | 0.2x)

Concentrix

FWRD (21.0% | 0.2x)

Forward Air

IMMR (424.7% | 0.1x)

Immersion

WYY (17.6% | 0.3x)

WidePoint

APWC (16.1% | 0.1x)

Asia Pacific Wire & Cable

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 8.3x)

LTM (15.2% | 6.5x)

LATAM Airlines

OTEX (17.3% | 4.9x)

Open Text

HRI (17.0% | 5.5x)

Herc

CNXC (16.0% | 2.9x)

Concentrix

WLFC (32.8% | 5.1x)

Willis Lease Finance

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ALK: 21.3%)

RKLB (38.0%)

Rocket Lab

BE (37.3%)

Bloom Energy

BA (34.5%)

Boeing

FIX (29.5%)

Comfort Systems USA

VRT (27.7%)

Vertiv

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: 14.0%)

VRT (21.7%)

Vertiv

CP (20.7%)

Canadian Pacific Kansas City

PWR (18.7%)

Quanta Services

GE (18.3%)

GE Aerospace

UBER (17.7%)

Uber Technologies

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ALK: 3.9%)

ETN (19.0%)

Eaton

GE (18.9%)

GE Aerospace

DE (18.0%)

Deere

CAT (16.5%)

Caterpillar

RTX (10.5%)

RTX

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: 8.8%)

GE (18.6%)

GE Aerospace

CAT (17.4%)

Caterpillar

DE (16.8%)

Deere

GEV (13.1%)

GE Vernova

RTX (11.9%)

RTX

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: -2.4%)

GE (15.8%)

GE Aerospace

CAT (11.0%)

Caterpillar

GEV (9.7%)

GE Vernova

RTX (8.4%)

RTX

BA (-2.1%)

Boeing

Higher Total Yield (Value for ALK: 2.2%)

DE (4.0%)

Deere

RTX (3.8%)

RTX

CAT (3.2%)

Caterpillar

ETN (2.9%)

Eaton

GE (2.7%)

GE Aerospace

All Other Sectors

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 0.3x)

CI (15.3% | 0.3x)

Cigna

SNEX (32.4% | 0.0x)

StoneX

STNE (21.3% | 0.3x)

StoneCo

GOLD (26.1% | 0.1x)

Gold.com

REAX (73.2% | 0.3x)

Real Brokerage

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 8.3x)

APO (66.8% | 7.5x)

Apollo Global Management

IBKR (38.4% | 3.6x)

Interactive Brokers

VICI (16.5% | 8.2x)

VICI Properties

GEN (15.3% | 6.2x)

Gen Digital

JEF (17.2% | 2.1x)

Jefferies Financial

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ALK: 21.3%)

MU (85.5%)

Micron Technology

NVDA (65.5%)

NVIDIA

LLY (44.7%)

Eli Lilly

AVGO (25.2%)

Broadcom

META (22.2%)

Meta Platforms

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: 14.0%)

NVDA (101.8%)

NVIDIA

BRK-B (27.0%)

Berkshire Hathaway

AVGO (26.2%)

Broadcom

META (19.9%)

Meta Platforms

MSFT (14.4%)

Microsoft

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ALK: 3.9%)

NVDA (60.4%)

NVIDIA

MSFT (46.7%)

Microsoft

AAPL (32.4%)

Apple

GOOGL (32.0%)

Alphabet

AMZN (11.2%)

Amazon.com

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: 8.8%)

MSFT (52.5%)

Microsoft

NVDA (47.6%)

NVIDIA

GOOGL (40.9%)

Alphabet

AAPL (31.1%)

Apple

AMZN (19.5%)

Amazon.com

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: -2.4%)

NVDA (44.8%)

NVIDIA

AAPL (28.3%)

Apple

MSFT (25.3%)

Microsoft

GOOGL (18.2%)

Alphabet

AMZN (1.1%)

Amazon.com

Higher Total Yield (Value for ALK: 2.2%)

MSFT (5.2%)

Microsoft

GOOGL (3.7%)

Alphabet

AAPL (3.5%)

Apple

AMZN (3.0%)

Amazon.com

NVDA (2.6%)

NVIDIA

Best Bets in Industrials

What You Pay

P/EBIT (Value for ALK: 12.0x)

GATX (10.2x)

GATX

PAYX (12.7x)

Paychex

AGX (62.3x)

Argan

TDG (16.5x)

TransDigm

PCTY (15.2x)

Paylocity

ADP (12.8x)

Automatic Data Processing

STRL (32.0x)

Sterling Infrastructure

PAYC (10.0x)

Paycom Software

WOR (17.7x)

Worthington Enterprises

CSW (27.7x)

CSW Industrials

P/E (Value for ALK: 45.6x)

GATX (20.6x)

GATX

PAYX (18.8x)

Paychex

AGX (60.9x)

Argan

TDG (34.7x)

TransDigm

PCTY (21.6x)

Paylocity

ADP (18.0x)

Automatic Data Processing

STRL (47.2x)

Sterling Infrastructure

PAYC (13.8x)

Paycom Software

WOR (24.2x)

Worthington Enterprises

CSW (38.0x)

CSW Industrials

What You Get

Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: 14.0%)

GATX (11.0%)

GATX

PAYX (8.9%)

Paychex

AGX (28.8%)

Argan

TDG (17.5%)

TransDigm

PCTY (19.0%)

Paylocity

ADP (7.1%)

Automatic Data Processing

STRL (12.1%)

Sterling Infrastructure

PAYC (14.4%)

Paycom Software

WOR (51.4%)

Worthington Enterprises

CSW (11.0%)

CSW Industrials

Rev Chg LTM (Value for ALK: 21.3%)

GATX (9.8%)

GATX

PAYX (16.4%)

Paychex

AGX (8.1%)

Argan

TDG (11.7%)

TransDigm

PCTY (12.1%)

Paylocity

ADP (6.6%)

Automatic Data Processing

STRL (17.7%)

Sterling Infrastructure

PAYC (8.9%)

Paycom Software

WOR (15.0%)

Worthington Enterprises

CSW (16.9%)

CSW Industrials

Rev Chg Q (Value for ALK: 2.8%)

GATX (8.6%)

GATX

PAYX (19.9%)

Paychex

AGX (12.7%)

Argan

TDG (13.9%)

TransDigm

PCTY (10.4%)

Paylocity

ADP (6.2%)

Automatic Data Processing

STRL (51.5%)

Sterling Infrastructure

PAYC (10.2%)

Paycom Software

WOR (24.4%)

Worthington Enterprises

CSW (20.3%)

CSW Industrials

FCF/Rev 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: -1.7%)

GATX (37.4%)

GATX

PAYX (33.2%)

Paychex

AGX (27.3%)

Argan

TDG (22.1%)

TransDigm

PCTY (21.7%)

Paylocity

ADP (19.7%)

Automatic Data Processing

STRL (18.4%)

Sterling Infrastructure

PAYC (18.2%)

Paycom Software

WOR (18.2%)

Worthington Enterprises

CSW (18.0%)

CSW Industrials

[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 16%, alpha of 4.2%, and sharpe of 0.76

Latest Trefis Analyses

	Title	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Is 34.6% Fall In Alaska Air (ALK) Stock A Buying Opportunity?	03/28/2026
2	Alaska Air Stock (-9.4%): Geopolitical Tensions Cause Oil Prices to Spike 8.5%	03/06/2026
3	Alaska Air Earnings Notes	12/28/2026
4	Is 21.2% Fall In Alaska Air (ALK) Stock A Buying Opportunity?	11/20/2025
5	Can Alaska Air Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?	10/17/2025
6	Is The 24.1% Decline In Alaska Air (ALK) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity?	10/02/2025
7	Is The 20.3% Decline In Alaska Air (ALK) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity?	09/27/2025
8	ARTICLES
9	Alaska Air Stock To $25?	03/28/2026
10	After A 24% Slide, Is ALK Stock Worth A Look?	10/02/2025
11	ALK Stock Sinks 20%, Is A Rebound Coming?	09/27/2025
12	Time To Buy Alaska Air Stock?	09/23/2025
13	What’s Behind The 20% Rise In Alaska Air Stock This Month?	12/18/2024

	Title
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Is 34.6% Fall In Alaska Air (ALK) Stock A Buying Opportunity?
2	Alaska Air Stock (-9.4%): Geopolitical Tensions Cause Oil Prices to Spike 8.5%
3	Alaska Air Earnings Notes
4	Is 21.2% Fall In Alaska Air (ALK) Stock A Buying Opportunity?
5	Can Alaska Air Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?
6	Is The 24.1% Decline In Alaska Air (ALK) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity?
7	Is The 20.3% Decline In Alaska Air (ALK) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity?
8	ARTICLES
9	Alaska Air Stock To $25?
10	After A 24% Slide, Is ALK Stock Worth A Look?
11	ALK Stock Sinks 20%, Is A Rebound Coming?
12	Time To Buy Alaska Air Stock?
13	What’s Behind The 20% Rise In Alaska Air Stock This Month?

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to ALK.

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
NSP_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K	03312026	NSP	Insperity	Insider	Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
TNC_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K	03312026	TNC	Tennant	Insider	Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ADP_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03272026	ADP	Automatic Data Processing	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%
HURN_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03272026	HURN	Huron Consulting	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	4.0%	4.0%	0.0%
TRU_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03272026	TRU	TransUnion	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	5.2%	5.2%	0.0%
ALK_7312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	07312020	ALK	Alaska Air	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	41.8%	68.5%	-1.3%

Recent Active Movers

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
OGN	Organon	2.3	27.8%	23.5%
LWLG	Lightwave Logic	1.4	25.6%	227.2%
POET	POET Technologies	0.6	15.8%	11.2%
ALAB	Astera Labs	25.3	15.1%	-10.4%
MANE	Veradermics	1.4	14.7%	82.3%
TTMI	TTM Technologies	12.6	13.0%	76.1%
AAOI	Applied Optoelectronics	10.6	13.0%	332.0%
FBYD	Falcons Beyond Global	0.5	12.6%	-18.9%
TE	T1 Energy	0.8	12.2%	-29.8%
CRWV	CoreWeave	51.7	10.9%	42.4%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
FSLY	Fastly	3.5	-21.7%	126.6%
REPL	Replimune	0.4	-19.5%	-51.0%
AKAM	Akamai Technologies	13.2	-16.7%	4.7%
FICO	Fair Isaac	21.9	-14.0%	-45.4%
SEZL	Sezzle	2.0	-13.6%	-5.9%
NET	Cloudflare	58.6	-13.5%	-15.3%
DOCN	DigitalOcean	6.9	-13.3%	57.1%
SMPL	Simply Good Foods	1.0	-11.5%	-48.0%
EVMN	Evommune	0.8	-11.0%	49.0%
GH	Guardant Health	10.1	-9.8%	-23.0%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
AEHR	Aehr Test Systems	2.1	58.9%	248.8%
CAR	Avis Budget	10.6	57.5%	133.7%
AAOI	Applied Optoelectronics	10.6	44.9%	332.0%
OGN	Organon	2.3	38.8%	23.5%
LWLG	Lightwave Logic	1.4	38.4%	227.2%
HUT	Hut 8	7.2	37.4%	43.9%
SLNO	Soleno Therapeutics	2.8	33.3%	13.7%
STAA	Staar Surgical	1.3	30.8%	14.5%
RIOT	Riot Platforms	5.8	29.1%	31.0%
CIFR	Cipher Digital	6.6	28.9%	12.0%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
REPL	Replimune	0.4	-43.4%	-51.0%
FSLY	Fastly	3.5	-31.1%	126.6%
SMPL	Simply Good Foods	1.0	-26.3%	-48.0%
AKAM	Akamai Technologies	13.2	-22.6%	4.7%
GWRE	Guidewire Software	10.0	-21.8%	-41.3%
OKTA	Okta	11.2	-21.5%	-27.2%
HUBS	HubSpot	10.1	-21.4%	-52.1%
NET	Cloudflare	58.6	-21.1%	-15.3%
VRDN	Viridian Therapeutics	1.4	-20.6%	-52.0%
SNOW	Snowflake	41.5	-20.2%	-44.8%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
XLO	Xilio Therapeutics	0.6	1475.9%	-5.1%
CAR	Avis Budget	10.6	196.4%	133.7%
SATL	Satellogic	1.0	135.7%	292.0%
LWLG	Lightwave Logic	1.4	111.2%	227.2%
APLS	Apellis Pharmaceuticals	5.2	110.5%	62.4%
FBYD	Falcons Beyond Global	0.5	92.1%	-18.9%
FLY	Firefly Aerospace	6.0	82.2%	67.8%
KOD	Kodiak Sciences	2.3	75.7%	54.2%
KODK	Eastman Kodak	1.2	74.0%	42.9%
ORKA	Oruka Therapeutics	3.2	73.1%	96.6%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
WVE	WAVE Life Sciences	1.3	-49.0%	-57.8%
VRDN	Viridian Therapeutics	1.4	-47.8%	-52.0%
MAZE	Maze Therapeutics	1.2	-47.1%	-35.6%
BUR	Burford Capital	1.0	-47.0%	-51.1%
FRMI	Fermi	2.9	-43.9%	-39.1%
TE	T1 Energy	0.8	-42.4%	-29.8%
REPL	Replimune	0.4	-39.7%	-51.0%
ADMA	ADMA Biologics	2.3	-38.1%	-46.8%
FIG	Figma	9.3	-34.8%	-51.4%
BOBS	Bobs Discount Furniture	1.4	-34.7%	-34.8%

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

	ALK	DAL	UAL	LUV	AAL	JBLU	Median
Name	Alaska A.	Delta Ai.	United A.	Southwes.	American.	JetBlue .
Mkt Price	39.50	67.82	96.40	39.56	11.32	4.74	39.53
Mkt Cap	4.6	44.2	31.2	24.1	7.5	1.8	15.8
Rev LTM	14,239	65,178	59,069	28,063	54,633	9,062	41,348
Op Inc LTM	553	5,754	4,971	428	1,626	-338	1,090
FCF LTM	-339	3,921	2,557	-830	-1,786	-1,216	-584
FCF 3Y Avg	-200	2,622	2,042	-926	54	-1,166	-73
CFO LTM	1,249	8,396	8,431	1,843	1,930	-94	1,886
CFO 3Y Avg	1,254	7,676	8,262	1,823	3,015	150	2,419

Growth & Margins

	ALK	DAL	UAL	LUV	AAL	JBLU	Median
Name	Alaska A.	Delta Ai.	United A.	Southwes.	American.	JetBlue .
Rev Chg LTM	21.3%	5.2%	3.5%	2.1%	0.8%	-2.3%	2.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	14.0%	6.5%	9.7%	5.7%	3.8%	-0.3%	6.1%
Rev Chg Q	2.8%	12.9%	4.8%	7.4%	2.5%	-1.4%	3.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM	0.7%	2.9%	1.2%	1.9%	0.6%	-0.4%	0.9%
Op Mgn LTM	3.9%	8.8%	8.4%	1.5%	3.0%	-3.7%	3.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg	6.6%	9.8%	9.0%	1.2%	5.5%	-1.7%	6.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.4%	0.4%	-1.2%	-1.3%	-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM	8.8%	12.9%	14.3%	6.6%	3.5%	-1.0%	7.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg	10.4%	12.3%	14.6%	6.8%	5.6%	1.6%	8.6%
FCF/Rev LTM	-2.4%	6.0%	4.3%	-3.0%	-3.3%	-13.4%	-2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	-1.7%	4.2%	3.5%	-3.4%	0.1%	-12.6%	-0.8%

Valuation

	ALK	DAL	UAL	LUV	AAL	JBLU	Median
Name	Alaska A.	Delta Ai.	United A.	Southwes.	American.	JetBlue .
Mkt Cap	4.6	44.2	31.2	24.1	7.5	1.8	15.8
P/S	0.3	0.7	0.5	0.9	0.1	0.2	0.4
P/EBIT	12.0	7.0	5.7	35.5	3.9	-9.0	6.4
P/E	45.6	9.9	9.3	54.5	67.4	-2.9	27.7
P/CFO	3.7	5.3	3.7	13.1	3.9	-18.6	3.8
Total Yield	2.2%	10.4%	10.7%	3.5%	1.5%	-34.4%	2.8%
Dividend Yield	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg	-4.2%	7.6%	5.7%	-4.4%	0.7%	-56.2%	-1.7%
D/E	1.5	0.5	1.0	0.2	4.9	5.4	1.3
Net D/E	1.0	0.3	0.6	0.1	4.2	4.1	0.8

Returns

	ALK	DAL	UAL	LUV	AAL	JBLU	Median
Name	Alaska A.	Delta Ai.	United A.	Southwes.	American.	JetBlue .
1M Rtn	-4.4%	14.7%	6.3%	-5.1%	2.5%	7.5%	4.4%
3M Rtn	-21.0%	-6.0%	-17.8%	-10.8%	-29.2%	-8.7%	-14.3%
6M Rtn	-16.3%	18.7%	-0.3%	27.5%	-1.7%	7.7%	3.7%
12M Rtn	-11.3%	74.4%	53.6%	56.5%	19.0%	28.5%	41.0%
3Y Rtn	-8.5%	102.1%	117.5%	29.2%	-20.9%	-34.3%	10.3%
1M Excs Rtn	-5.0%	14.1%	5.7%	-5.7%	1.9%	6.9%	3.8%
3M Excs Rtn	-17.2%	-3.1%	-15.0%	-5.9%	-26.5%	-4.4%	-10.5%
6M Excs Rtn	-20.6%	18.5%	-2.7%	22.0%	-5.1%	-0.9%	-1.8%
12M Excs Rtn	-40.5%	54.5%	34.9%	26.3%	-12.0%	-5.1%	10.6%
3Y Excs Rtn	-72.1%	39.8%	60.4%	-33.0%	-86.3%	-98.9%	-52.6%

Comparison Analyses

	Title
0	Is Alaska Air Stock Outperforming Its Rivals?
1	DAL or ALK - With 59% Return Forecast, ALK Probably Deserves Your Money
2	Alaska Air vs. Southwest Airlines: With Return Forecast Of 29%, Alaska Air Is A Better Bet
3	With 59% Gains On The Table, ALK May Outshine UAL
4	With 59% Gains On The Table, ALK May Outshine AAL
5	With 61% Gains On The Table, ALK May Outshine JBLU
6	Alaska Air vs. Atlas Air Worldwide: With Return Forecast Of 35%, Atlas Air Worldwide Is A Better Bet

FDIC Bank Data

Bank Capital

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Bank Deposits

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Bank Assets

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Bank Loans

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FDA Approved Drugs Data

Expand for Morenull

Financials

Annual
Quarterly

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	LTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Period End	12/31/2025	12/31/2025	12/31/2024	12/31/2023	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020
Filing Date	2/12/2026	2/12/2026	2/14/2025	2/14/2024	2/13/2023	2/11/2022	2/26/2021
Key Financials
Total Revenue	14,239	14,239	11,735	10,426	9,646	6,176	3,566
EBITDA	1,176	1,176	1,270	868	588	1,140	-1,333
Operating Income	553	553	915	837	650	674	-922
Net Income	100	100	395	235	58	478	-1,324
EPS	0.91	0.85	3.13	1.84	0.46	3.82	-10.72
Growth Rates
Total Revenue Growth	21.3%	21.3%	12.6%	8.1%	56.2%	73.2%	-59.4%
EBITDA Growth	-7.4%	-7.4%	46.3%	47.6%	-48.4%	185.5%	-188.7%
Operating Income Growth	-39.6%	-39.6%	9.3%	28.8%	-3.6%	173.1%	-183.3%
Net Income Growth	-74.7%	-74.7%	68.1%	305.2%	-87.9%	136.1%	-272.2%
Margins
EBITDA Margin	8.3%	8.3%	10.8%	8.3%	6.1%	18.5%	-37.4%
Operating Income Margin	3.9%	3.9%	7.8%	8.0%	6.7%	10.9%	-25.9%
Net Income Margin	0.7%	0.7%	3.4%	2.3%	0.6%	7.7%	-37.1%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	2,123	2,123	2,475	1,791	2,417	3,116	3,346
Total Debt	6,893	6,893	6,393	3,818	3,780	4,086	5,053
Net Debt / (Cash)	4,770	4,770	3,918	2,027	1,363	970	1,707
Cash Flows
Net Cash from Operations	1,249	1,249	1,464	1,050	1,418	1,030	-234
Free Cash from Operations	-339	-339	183	-444	-253	738	-456
Returns to Shareholders
Dividends	0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	45
Share Repurchases	570	570	312	137	-0	-0	31

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1	2024Q4	2024Q3	2024Q2	2024Q1	2023Q4	2023Q3	2023Q2	2023Q1
Period End	12/31/2025	9/30/2025	6/30/2025	3/31/2025	12/31/2024	9/30/2024	6/30/2024	3/31/2024	12/31/2023	9/30/2023	6/30/2023	3/31/2023
Filing Date	2/12/2026	11/6/2025	8/7/2025	5/8/2025	2/14/2025	11/8/2024	8/2/2024	5/3/2024	2/14/2024	11/2/2023	8/2/2023	5/5/2023
Key Financials Quarterly
Total Revenue	3,632	3,766	3,704	3,137	3,534	3,072	2,897	2,232	2,553	2,839	2,838	2,196
Ebitda	291	376	494	15	315	504	474	-23	150	333	459	-74
Operating Income	114	212	333	-106	164	415	468	-132	69	367	523	-122
Net Income	21	73	172	-166	71	236	220	-132	-2	139	240	-142
EPS	0.18	0.63	1.45	-1.35	0.56	1.87	1.74	-1.05	-0.02	1.09	1.88	-1.11
Key Financials TTM
Total Revenue TTM	14,239	14,141	13,447	12,640	11,735	10,754	10,521	10,462	10,426	10,352	10,341	10,161
Ebitda TTM	1,176	1,200	1,328	1,308	1,270	1,105	934	919	868	876	740	593
Operating Income TTM	553	603	806	941	915	820	772	827	837	905	845	655
Net Income TTM	100	150	313	361	395	322	225	245	235	259	160	59
Growth Rates Quarterly
Total Revenue Growth	2.8%	22.6%	27.9%	40.5%	38.4%	8.2%	2.1%	1.6%	3.0%	0.4%	6.8%	30.6%
EBITDA Growth	-7.6%	-25.4%	4.2%	165.2%	110.0%	51.4%	3.3%	68.9%	-5.1%	69.0%	47.1%	6.3%
Operating Income Growth	-30.5%	-48.9%	-28.8%	19.7%	137.7%	13.1%	-10.5%	-8.2%	-49.6%	19.5%	57.1%	3.9%
Net Income Growth	-70.4%	-69.1%	-21.8%	-25.8%	3650.0%	69.8%	-8.3%	7.0%	-109.1%	247.5%	72.7%	0.7%
Margins Quarterly
EBITDA Margin	8.0%	10.0%	13.3%	0.5%	8.9%	16.4%	16.4%	-1.0%	5.9%	11.7%	16.2%	-3.4%
Operating Income Margin	3.1%	5.6%	9.0%	-3.4%	4.6%	13.5%	16.2%	-5.9%	2.7%	12.9%	18.4%	-5.6%
Net Income Margin	0.6%	1.9%	4.6%	-5.3%	2.0%	7.7%	7.6%	-5.9%	-0.1%	4.9%	8.5%	-6.5%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	2,123	2,272	2,124	2,464	2,475	2,505	2,509	2,278	1,791	2,451	2,442	2,429
Total Debt	6,893	6,471	6,373	6,276	6,393	6,142	3,875	3,821	3,818	4,127	3,886	3,731
Net Debt / (Cash)	4,770	4,199	4,249	3,812	3,918	3,637	1,366	1,543	2,027	1,676	1,444	1,302
Cash Flows Quarterly
FCF from Operations	185	229	376	459	274	318	580	292	-53	271	610	222
Cash Flows TTM
FCF from Operations TTM	1,249	1,338	1,427	1,631	1,464	1,137	1,090	1,120	1,050	1,112	1,015	1,353
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Share Repurchases	30	5	430	105	249	14	29	20	67	13	39	18
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly
ROIC	6.7%	13.3%	22.7%	-7.9%	15.0%	32.8%	95.4%	-25.4%	13.6%	63.1%	107.0%	-26.7%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM
ROIC TTM	7.9%	11.0%	14.4%	18.2%	16.9%	15.4%	38.0%	38.2%	30.0%	39.5%	41.4%	34.5%

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Alaska Airlines	24,664
Hawaiian Airlines	4,423
Consolidating & Other	-9,319	-6,676	-6,704	-6,519	-6,878
Horizon		1,352	1,157	1,212	1,170
Mainline		19,937	19,733	19,258	19,754
Total	19,768	14,613	14,186	13,951	14,046

Price Behavior

Price Behavior

Market Price	$39.50
Market Cap ($ Bil)	4.6
First Trading Date	01/03/1983
Distance from 52W High	-38.1%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$46.26	$49.61
DMA Trend	down	down
Distance from DMA	-14.6%	-20.4%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	58.4%	47.6%
Downside Capture	1.53	1.19
Upside Capture	274.63	150.33
Correlation (SPY)	51.1%	47.6%

ALK Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	2.00	2.36	2.30	1.88	1.79	1.49
Up Beta	3.40	3.74	2.75	1.35	1.90	1.71
Down Beta	0.66	0.17	1.13	1.50	1.51	1.50
Up Capture	154%	284%	296%	224%	210%	166%
Bmk +ve Days	7	16	27	65	139	424
Stock +ve Days	7	17	28	61	125	369
Down Capture	292%	273%	245%	189%	150%	109%
Bmk -ve Days	12	23	33	58	110	323
Stock -ve Days	15	25	35	65	126	379

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Based On 1-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ALK
ALK	-3.1%	53.9%	0.13	-
Sector ETF (XLI)	49.1%	17.9%	2.08	65.8%
Equity (SPY)	31.2%	17.3%	1.47	62.6%
Gold (GLD)	60.1%	27.8%	1.69	7.5%
Commodities (DBC)	29.8%	16.6%	1.58	5.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)	21.3%	15.2%	1.07	51.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	-5.7%	43.7%	-0.01	32.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 5-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ALK
ALK	-11.0%	41.3%	-0.16	-
Sector ETF (XLI)	13.1%	17.3%	0.59	59.6%
Equity (SPY)	11.1%	17.0%	0.50	55.3%
Gold (GLD)	22.1%	17.8%	1.02	7.1%
Commodities (DBC)	11.8%	18.8%	0.52	9.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)	3.7%	18.8%	0.10	43.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	4.0%	56.5%	0.29	23.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 10-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ALK
ALK	-6.3%	42.8%	-0.00	-
Sector ETF (XLI)	13.8%	19.9%	0.61	64.2%
Equity (SPY)	13.8%	17.9%	0.66	55.9%
Gold (GLD)	14.2%	15.9%	0.74	2.1%
Commodities (DBC)	8.6%	17.6%	0.41	16.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)	5.1%	20.7%	0.22	49.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	67.4%	66.9%	1.07	15.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date	3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	15.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3152026	16.8%
Average Daily Volume	5.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	2.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity	115.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares	13.1%

Returns Analyses

	Title
0	Can Alaska Air Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?
1	Alaska Air During 2008 Recession vs. 2022 Inflation Shock: ALK Stock Has 42% Upside If It Recovers To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels
2	ALK YTD Stock Return Of -17% Outperforms JBLU by 38% and Underperforms UAL by -4.8%
3	Alaska Air (ALK) Stock Has 55% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month
4	Alaska Air Stock Return Comparison

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
1/22/2026	4.1%	9.1%	3.6%
10/24/2025	2.3%	-4.7%	-8.0%
7/23/2025	-5.7%	-1.0%	1.9%
4/23/2025	-10.0%	-4.0%	8.7%
1/22/2025	2.2%	7.1%	4.1%
10/31/2024	1.4%	9.2%	11.3%
7/17/2024	-6.9%	-5.5%	-11.8%
4/18/2024	1.3%	0.2%	-2.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	14	11	15
# Negative	10	13	9
Median Positive	2.1%	2.4%	7.9%
Median Negative	-1.4%	-4.2%	-8.0%
Max Positive	4.5%	9.2%	36.6%
Max Negative	-10.0%	-9.4%	-20.3%

	Forward Returns
1/22/2026	4.1%	9.1%	3.6%
10/24/2025	2.3%	-4.7%	-8.0%
7/23/2025	-5.7%	-1.0%	1.9%
4/23/2025	-10.0%	-4.0%	8.7%
1/22/2025	2.2%	7.1%	4.1%
10/31/2024	1.4%	9.2%	11.3%
7/17/2024	-6.9%	-5.5%	-11.8%
4/18/2024	1.3%	0.2%	-2.6%
1/25/2024	4.5%	0.0%	7.9%
10/19/2023	-0.4%	-1.2%	14.3%
7/25/2023	-0.7%	-0.6%	-11.5%
4/20/2023	2.0%	-1.4%	2.2%
1/26/2023	-0.6%	4.4%	-6.6%
10/20/2022	2.8%	8.5%	17.1%
7/21/2022	-1.0%	1.9%	5.2%
4/21/2022	0.2%	-7.5%	-20.3%
1/27/2022	-0.7%	1.2%	6.7%
10/21/2021	-1.8%	-7.9%	-8.2%
7/22/2021	0.5%	1.5%	-6.3%
4/22/2021	3.4%	2.4%	1.7%
1/26/2021	-2.0%	-5.7%	27.5%
10/22/2020	2.4%	-9.4%	17.6%
7/23/2020	1.0%	-4.2%	-1.5%
5/5/2020	0.7%	-1.4%	36.6%
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	14	11	15
# Negative	10	13	9
Median Positive	2.1%	2.4%	7.9%
Median Negative	-1.4%	-4.2%	-8.0%
Max Positive	4.5%	9.2%	36.6%
Max Negative	-10.0%	-9.4%	-20.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
12/31/2025	02/12/2026	10-K
09/30/2025	11/06/2025	10-Q
06/30/2025	08/07/2025	10-Q
03/31/2025	05/08/2025	10-Q
12/31/2024	02/14/2025	10-K
09/30/2024	11/08/2024	10-Q
06/30/2024	08/02/2024	10-Q
03/31/2024	05/03/2024	10-Q
12/31/2023	02/14/2024	10-K
09/30/2023	11/02/2023	10-Q
06/30/2023	08/02/2023	10-Q
03/31/2023	05/05/2023	10-Q
12/31/2022	02/13/2023	10-K
09/30/2022	11/03/2022	10-Q
06/30/2022	08/02/2022	10-Q
03/31/2022	05/05/2022	10-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026

Forward Guidance				Guidance Change
Metric	Low	Mid	High	% Chg	% Delta	Change	Prior
Q1 2026 Capacity (ASMs) % change	0.01	0.01	0.02	-40.0%		Lowered	Guidance: 0.03 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted earnings (loss) per share	-1.5	-1	-0.5	-350.0%		Lowered	Guidance: 0.4 for Q4 2025
2026 Capacity (ASMs) % change	0.02	0.03	0.03	25.0%		Raised	Guidance: 0.02 for 2025
2026 Adjusted earnings (loss) per share	3.5	5	6.5	108.3%		Raised	Guidance: 2.4 for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures	1.40 Bil	1.45 Bil	1.50 Bil

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/24/2025

Forward Guidance				Guidance Change
Metric	Low	Mid	High	% Chg	% Delta	Change	Prior
Q4 2025 Capacity (ASMs) % change	0.02	0.03	0.03
Q4 2025 Adjusted earnings per share		0.4
2025 Capacity (ASMs) % change		0.02		0.0%		Affirmed	Guidance: 0.02 for 2025
2025 Adjusted earnings per share		2.4		-26.2%		Lowered	Guidance: 3.25 for 2025

Insider Activity

Expand for More

#	Owner	Title	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Levine, Kyle B	SVP LEGAL & GEN COUNSEL	Direct	Sell	8192025	57.75	5,914	341,534	1,207,957	Form
2	Tackett, Shane R	EVP AND CFO	Direct	Sell	8142025	57.06	5,000	285,315	2,472,825	Form
3	Harrison, Andrew R	EVP AND CCO	Direct	Sell	7292025	53.22	7,600	404,501	1,007,527	Form
4	Halverson, Emily	VP Finance, Controller & Treas	Direct	Sell	6062025	51.34	2,946	151,251	423,719	Form
5	Harrison, Andrew R	EVP AND CCO	Direct	Sell	5202025	53.51	7,500	401,330	1,419,639	Form

ALK Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

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CONVICTION RATIONALE

null

STOCK ARCHETYPE

null

INVESTMENT THESIS

null

Mechanism: null

Supporting Evidence:

PRIMARY RISK

null

Mechanism: null

Supporting Evidence:

Key KPI Watchlist

KPI	Threshold	Rationale

Core Investment Debate

BULL VIEW

CORE TENSION

PREVAILING SENTIMENT

BEAR VIEW

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts

Timeline	Event & Metric To Watch

Key Events in Last 6 Months

Date	Event	Stock Impact

Risk Management

Position Sizing

null

Diversification Alternatives

How Is The Market Pricing ALK?

What will confirm the thesis

What will damage the thesis

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Repricing Catalyst

What ALK Makes & Who Pays

TTM figures based on

ALK Evolution: Price Return by Era

① Structure

② Volume / Momentum

③ Catalyst

Combined Score

0 / 12

1 Price Structure & Trend · ▾

2 Momentum ▾

3 Relative Strength vs. SPY ▾

4 Institutional Footprint & Volume ▾

5 Volatility ▾

6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol ▾

7 Earnings Reaction History ▾

8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾

Pillar	Score
① Structure	0
② Vol / Mom	0
③ Catalyst	0

ℹ Bull Pillars: 0 · Bear Pillars: 0 · Combined Score: 0 →

External Quote Links

0	Y Finance	Barrons
1	TradingView	Morningstar
2	SeekingAlpha	ValueLine
3	Motley Fool	Robinhood
4	CNBC	Etrade
5	MarketWatch	Unusual Whales
6	YCharts	Perplexity Finance
7	FinViz

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Alaska Air (ALK)

Market Price (4/11/2026): $39.55 | Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Alaska Air (ALK)

Market Price (4/11/2026): $39.55Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

How Low Can It Go

In The Past

Preserve Wealth

Asset Allocation

About Alaska Air (ALK)

Share Repurchases

Share Issuance

Outbound Investments

Capital Expenditures

Interactive Breakdown

Better Bets vs. Alaska Air (ALK)

INDUSTRY: Passenger Airlines

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 8.3x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: 14.0%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ALK: 3.9%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: 8.8%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: -2.4%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ALK: 2.2%)

SECTOR: Industrials

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 0.3x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 8.3x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ALK: 21.3%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: 14.0%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ALK: 3.9%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: 8.8%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: -2.4%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ALK: 2.2%)

All Other Sectors

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 0.3x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ALK: 14.0% | 8.3x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ALK: 21.3%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: 14.0%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ALK: 3.9%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: 8.8%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ALK: -2.4%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ALK: 2.2%)

Best Bets in Industrials

P/EBIT (Value for ALK: 12.0x)

P/E (Value for ALK: 45.6x)

Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: 14.0%)

Rev Chg LTM (Value for ALK: 21.3%)

Rev Chg Q (Value for ALK: 2.8%)

FCF/Rev 3Y Avg (Value for ALK: -1.7%)

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Valuation

Market Price (4/11/2026): $39.55 | Market Cap: $4.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Market Price (4/11/2026): $39.55
Market Cap: $4.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines