Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $148.0 | Market Cap: $21.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Internet Services & Infrastructure
Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $148.0Market Cap: $21.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Internet Services & Infrastructure
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.9 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Cloud Security, Software Security, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% Key risksAKAM key risks include [1] intense competition creating significant pricing pressure and [2] the revenue decline in its legacy CDN business offsetting growth from its strategic security and compute segments. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.9 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Cloud Security, Software Security, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksAKAM key risks include [1] intense competition creating significant pricing pressure and [2] the revenue decline in its legacy CDN business offsetting growth from its strategic security and compute segments. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q1 2026 Financial Results and Upbeat Full-Year Guidance.
Akamai reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.074 billion, exceeding analyst estimates by 0.17% and representing a 6% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $1.61, surpassing estimates by 8.78%. The company further bolstered investor confidence by raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $4.445 billion and $4.550 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $6.40 to $7.15, which was in line to slightly above Street expectations.
2. Landmark $1.8 Billion Cloud Infrastructure Services Deal, cementing AI position.
A significant catalyst for the stock's surge was the announcement of a seven-year, $1.8 billion commitment from a leading frontier model provider for Akamai's Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS). This landmark deal positions Akamai as a critical infrastructure provider in the burgeoning AI economy and provides substantial long-term revenue visibility, with revenue expected to begin ramping in Q4 2026.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.3% change in AKAM stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 97.15 | 148.00 | 52.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,133 | 4,267 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 10.2% | -16.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 49.4 | 79.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 144 | 145 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AKAM | 52.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.1% | 25.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 97.1% change in AKAM stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 93.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.10 | 148.00 | 97.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,083 | 4,267 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.4% | 10.2% | -1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 49.4 | 93.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 145 | 145 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 97.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AKAM | 96.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 11.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.1% | 25.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 83.7% change in AKAM stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 106.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.58 | 148.00 | 83.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,991 | 4,267 | 6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.7% | 10.2% | -19.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.0 | 49.4 | 106.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 150 | 145 | 3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 83.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AKAM | 83.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 68.1% | 26.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 80.6% change in AKAM stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 100.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.97 | 148.00 | 80.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,617 | 4,267 | 18.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.5% | 10.2% | -29.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.6 | 49.4 | 100.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 157 | 145 | 8.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 80.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AKAM | 80.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 38.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 137.6% | 35.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AKAM Return | 11% | -28% | 40% | -19% | -9% | 34% | 11% |
| Peers Return | 42% | -50% | 95% | 20% | 23% | 34% | 176% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AKAM Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 75% | 42% | 42% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 33% | 65% | 55% | 57% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AKAM Max Drawdown | -11% | -33% | -16% | -27% | -29% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -53% | -6% | -24% | -21% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NET, FSLY, PANW, FTNT, CRWD. See AKAM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AKAM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 73 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 429 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.0% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -10.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Akamai Technologies's stock fell -32.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AKAM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 429 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 758 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 296.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1126 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Akamai Technologies's stock fell -32.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Akamai Technologies:
Akamai is like the FedEx for digital content, ensuring websites, videos, and applications are delivered quickly and securely across the globe.
Akamai is like Cloudflare for the world's largest enterprises and media companies, providing ultra-fast and secure online experiences globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Cybersecurity Solutions: Cloud-based services protecting infrastructure, websites, applications, APIs, and users from various cyberattacks and online threats.
- Web & Mobile Performance Solutions: Services designed to enable dynamic websites and applications to perform optimally for users.
- Media Delivery Solutions: Comprehensive services for video streaming, game and software delivery, broadcast operations, and authoritative DNS resolution.
- Edge Compute Solutions: Services that enable developers to deploy and distribute code and applications closer to end-users at the network edge.
- Carrier Offerings: Solutions for internet service providers, including cybersecurity protection, parental controls, DNS infrastructure, and content delivery.
- Professional Services & Support: Assistance provided to customers for integrating, configuring, optimizing, and managing Akamai's product offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) primarily sells its cloud services and solutions to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B).
However, the provided background information does not list the specific names of Akamai's major customer companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
F. Thomson Leighton, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder
F. Thomson Leighton (Tom Leighton) co-founded Akamai Technologies in 1998, with the company emerging from his and Daniel Lewin's research at MIT aimed at solving internet congestion. Before becoming CEO in January 2013, he served as Akamai's Chief Scientist from 1998 to 2012. Dr. Leighton has been a Professor of Applied Mathematics at MIT since 1982, currently on leave. He holds over 50 patents in areas such as content delivery, internet protocols, algorithms for networks, cryptography, and digital rights management. In 2017, he was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame for his fundamental contributions to Content Delivery Network methods. Under his leadership, Akamai expanded its offerings beyond CDN services into cybersecurity and cloud computing.
Ed McGowan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ed McGowan joined Akamai in 2000 and has held various significant roles within the organization, including Senior Vice President, Finance, and Senior Vice President, Global Sales Media & Carrier Division. He was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in March 2019. Mr. McGowan is responsible for overseeing Akamai's financial strategy and IT operations. He has been instrumental in the company's strategic expansion into cloud infrastructure and edge-based AI inference, as well as the growth of its security business through both internal innovation and acquisitions.
Mani Sundaram, Executive Vice President and General Manager, Security Technology Group
Mani Sundaram joined Akamai in 2007, starting as an architect in Professional Services where he consulted with large media businesses. He was crucial in developing new services and support models for Akamai customers managing major online events, and he integrated Akamai's global services teams into a unified organization. His efforts, including the integration of Prolexic security services, significantly contributed to establishing Akamai as a leading security provider. Prior to Akamai, Mr. Sundaram held various roles in engineering, marketing, and client services at Virtify Inc. and Stratus Technologies.
Adam Karon, Chief Operating Officer and General Manager, Cloud Technology Group
Adam Karon brings over 25 years of experience in organizational management, business operations, and technical leadership to Akamai. In his current role, he oversees the strategy and product direction for Akamai's media delivery, web performance, and edge computing solutions, as well as the Intelligent Edge platform. Previously, Mr. Karon served as Executive Vice President and General Manager of Akamai's Media & Carrier Division, and before that, as Senior Vice President of the Global Services and Support Organization. His earlier career also included positions as a Client Director at Leftbrain Solutions LLC and Director of Technology at Transportation Components, Inc..
Robert Blumofe, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Robert Blumofe is responsible for guiding Akamai's technology strategy and fostering innovation within the company. He joined Akamai in 1999 and has played a vital role in advancing Akamai's platform and enterprise solutions. Mr. Blumofe holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science from MIT. He was appointed Chief Technology Officer in February 2021 as part of Akamai's organizational restructuring into distinct technology groups.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from intense market competition, challenges in transitioning its core services, and the continuous need to adapt to rapidly evolving technological and cybersecurity landscapes.
-
Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure
Akamai operates in highly competitive markets for content delivery networks (CDN), cybersecurity, and cloud/edge computing. It faces formidable competition from both specialized providers like Cloudflare, Fastly, Imperva, and F5, as well as major hyperscale cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. These larger cloud providers possess vast resources, allowing them to offer aggressive pricing strategies or bundle services, which can erode Akamai's market share, pricing power, and profit margins, particularly in its traditional CDN business and its expanding compute segment. In 2024, AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud collectively controlled over 60% of the global cloud infrastructure market, intensifying this competitive pressure. The competitive intensity is also evident in the security market, where legacy security companies may engage in price competition, affecting Akamai's volume growth and margins. -
Slowing Revenue Growth and Transition Challenges
Akamai has experienced a slowdown in revenue growth, especially within its delivery (CDN) solutions segment, with reported year-over-year revenue declines. This trend is partly attributed to large customers optimizing their traffic, managing global economic headwinds, and increasingly adopting "do-it-yourself" (DIY) solutions for their content delivery needs. In response, Akamai is strategically shifting its focus and investments towards higher-growth areas like cloud compute and advanced security solutions. This transition, however, involves significant capital expenditures and research and development (R&D) investments, which could pressure the company's margins and free cash flow in the short to medium term if the utilization of new capacities is slower than anticipated. -
Rapid Technological Advancements and Evolving Cybersecurity Threats
Operating at the forefront of cloud services and cybersecurity, Akamai is exposed to the inherent risk of rapid technological change. The company must continuously innovate and adapt its products and services to keep pace with new technologies and emerging cyber threats. Failure to do so could negatively impact its market position and revenue. The cybersecurity landscape is particularly dynamic, with an increasing sophistication of attacks, including those exploiting application programming interfaces (APIs) and leveraging artificial intelligence (AI). For instance, between January 2023 and December 2024, Akamai documented 150 billion API attacks globally, with AI-powered APIs being especially vulnerable. The company's ability to develop and integrate new security capabilities, such as its Firewall for AI service, is critical to protecting its own systems and those of its customers from these evolving threats.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. **The increasing adoption of comprehensive Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) platforms:** Enterprises are consolidating their network and security functions into unified SASE frameworks. While Akamai offers strong individual security components (WAF, DDoS protection, enterprise application access), the market trend towards integrated SASE solutions from competitors like Zscaler, Palo Alto Networks, or Fortinet could lead to enterprises preferring a single vendor for a broader, converged security and networking stack, potentially marginalizing Akamai's discrete offerings within a more holistic corporate security strategy.
2. **The rapid maturation and widespread adoption of developer-centric serverless edge computing platforms by competitors:** Platforms such as Cloudflare Workers and Fastly Compute@Edge have gained significant traction among developers for their ease of use, agility, and cost-effectiveness in deploying complex application logic directly at the network edge. This growing ecosystem and developer mindshare around competing serverless edge solutions could challenge Akamai's ability to capture a leading share in the evolving edge compute market and potentially commoditize aspects of its own edge services if competitors prove more innovative or developer-friendly in this space.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) operates in several significant addressable markets globally.
Cloud Security Solutions
- The global cloud security market was valued at approximately USD 40.81 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to around USD 133.39 billion by 2035, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.57% from 2026 to 2035. North America is expected to hold the largest revenue share, at 35% in 2025.
- The global Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) protection market size was estimated at USD 4.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 20.31 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 18.7% from 2025 to 2033. North America held a 36.9% revenue share of the global DDoS protection market in 2024.
- The global Application Programming Interface (API) security market size was valued at USD 930.40 million in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 8,863.00 million by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 28.46% during the forecast period. North America dominates this market, driven by technological developments and a strong emphasis on cybersecurity, holding around 32% of the total market share globally.
Web and Mobile Performance & Media Delivery Solutions
- Akamai is a major player in the global Content Delivery Network (CDN) market. The global CDN market size was valued at approximately USD 30.51 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 170.86 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 21.10%. North America dominated the market with a share of 43.60% in 2025. For the U.S. specifically, the CDN market size is projected to grow from USD 6.91 billion in 2025 to USD 9.77 billion by 2030.
- Within media delivery, the global video streaming market size was valued at USD 811.37 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 3,394.56 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 17.00%. North America dominated the global market with a share of 37.70% in 2025.
Edge Compute Solutions
- The global edge computing market size was estimated at USD 18.64 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 267.42 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 34.10%. North America dominated the edge computing market with a market share of 35.70% in 2025. Another source reports the global edge computing market size at USD 554.39 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 6,092.42 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 27.09% from 2026 to 2035.
Carrier Offerings (DNS Infrastructure)
- The global Domain Name System (DNS) market size was valued at USD 1,164.84 million in 2025, with projections to grow to USD 4,398.459952 million by 2034 at a CAGR of 15.91%. North America represents 37-41% of the global DNS services market. The global managed domain name system market size reached USD 1.35 billion in 2025 and is expected to climb to USD 3.10 billion by 2030, expanding at an 18.16% CAGR. North America held a significant share of around 37% in 2024 for the managed DNS market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Accelerated Growth in Security Solutions: Akamai anticipates significant revenue growth from its expanding portfolio of security offerings, particularly in API Security and Guardicore segmentation. These solutions, which include web application firewall (WAF), DDoS mitigation, and bot management, are experiencing strong demand as enterprises increase their security budgets to combat evolving cyber threats and secure cloud computing environments. For example, Guardicore achieved $90 million in Q4 2025, marking a 35% year-over-year increase, and API security has seen over 100% growth.
- Expansion of Cloud Infrastructure Services (Edge Compute): The company's Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS), encompassing edge compute solutions, are a primary driver of growth. This segment, built on the Akamai Connected Cloud, provides distributed virtual machines, storage, and serverless compute capabilities closer to users. Akamai reported a 45% year-over-year growth in CIS revenue in Q4 2025, reaching $94 million, and projects an acceleration to 45%-50% growth in 2026 as it targets latency-sensitive use cases such as live video, ad selection, commerce, and robotics.
- Investment and Commercialization of AI Inference Cloud: Akamai is making a substantial investment of approximately $250 million in its Inference Cloud, focusing on AI capabilities to support the increasing demand for artificial intelligence at the edge. This platform is designed to run AI models closer to end-users, reducing latency for applications like real-time fraud detection and personalized recommendations. Meaningful revenue from this initiative is expected to begin in late 2026, with a larger impact anticipated in 2027.
- Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions: Akamai is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions within the security and compute sectors. These strategic M&A activities are expected to enhance its product portfolio, expand its market reach, and ultimately contribute to future revenue growth by integrating new technologies and acquiring additional customer bases.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Akamai Technologies repurchased $654.046 million in shares in 2023 and $557.468 million in 2024.
- The company repurchased 10.0 million shares in 2025 under its share repurchase program.
- As of February 19, 2026, Akamai completed the repurchase of 10,229,826 shares for $819.51 million under a buyback plan announced on May 9, 2024.
Share Issuance
- In August 2023, Akamai issued $1,265.0 million in convertible senior notes due 2029.
- In May 2025, the company issued $1,725.0 million in convertible senior notes due 2033, using part of the proceeds to repay notes due in 2027.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2022, Akamai acquired Linode Limited Liability Company for $900 million, expanding its cloud computing services.
- Akamai acquired Neosec, Inc. in May 2023 to enhance its API Security offerings, and Noname Security Ltd. for $450 million in May 2024, further strengthening its API security solutions.
- In December 2025, Akamai acquired Fermyon, a cloud services provider.
Capital Expenditures
- Akamai's capital expenditures were $578.9 million in 2023 and $523.3 million in 2024.
- Capital expenditures peaked in September 2025 at $626.9 million (latest twelve months).
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on investing in Akamai's faster-growing compute solutions, including expanding the Akamai Connected Cloud platform with new enterprise-grade core computing regions, data centers, and upgrades, as well as deploying NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs for AI inference capabilities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AKAM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 05312025 | AKAM | Akamai Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 35.6% | -7.1% |
| 09302022 | AKAM | Akamai Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | 32.6% | -11.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 171.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 76.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,539 |
| Op Inc LTM | 241 |
| FCF LTM | 1,003 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 917 |
| CFO LTM | 1,596 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,438 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 76.5 |
| P/S | 13.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 0.2 |
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/CFO | 33.3 |
| Total Yield | 0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 35.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 35.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 38.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 91.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 20.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 28.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 30.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $147.71 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 21.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/29/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $106.24 | $89.44 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 39.0% | 65.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 86.7% | 52.1% |
| Downside Capture | -1.27 | 0.10 |
| Upside Capture | 5.86 | 93.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -2.2% | 19.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.80 | 0.41 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 0.74 | 0.93 |
| Up Beta | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Down Beta | -21.59 | -1.10 | -2.04 | -0.72 | -0.13 | 0.86 |
| Up Capture | 21% | 59% | 17% | 120% | 94% | 72% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 34 | 68 | 134 | 402 |
| Down Capture | 1195% | 99% | 54% | 61% | 107% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 18 | 30 | 57 | 116 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AKAM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM | 79.6% | 53.2% | 1.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 63.9% | 20.8% | 2.27 | 26.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 20.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | -3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | -7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 17.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 15.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AKAM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM | 6.8% | 35.8% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.2% | 24.8% | 0.76 | 40.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 44.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 33.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 14.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AKAM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM | 11.3% | 34.1% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.0% | 24.4% | 0.92 | 44.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 45.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 26.6% | ||
| 2/19/2026 | -14.1% | -8.8% | 0.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 14.7% | 21.5% | 17.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | -5.7% | -0.7% | 5.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -10.8% | -10.5% | -8.6% |
| 2/20/2025 | -21.7% | -20.6% | -17.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | -14.4% | -15.4% | -5.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | 10.9% | 10.1% | 3.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -10.4% | -10.5% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 26.6% | 21.5% | 17.4% |
| Max Negative | -21.7% | -20.6% | -17.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 1.07 Bil | 1.09 Bil | 1.10 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP operating margin | 25.0% | 25.5% | 26.0% | ||||
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP net income per diluted share | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1.65 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 4.45 Bil | 4.50 Bil | 4.55 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.47 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating margin | 26.0% | -3.7% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 27.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Non-GAAP net income per diluted share | 6.4 | 6.78 | 7.15 | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 6.7 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 1.06 Bil | 1.07 Bil | 1.08 Bil | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.07 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP operating margin | 26.0% | 26.5% | 27.0% | -8.6% | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 29.0% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP net income per diluted share | 1.5 | 1.58 | 1.67 | -9.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.75 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 4.40 Bil | 4.47 Bil | 4.55 Bil | 6.8% | Higher New | Actual: 4.19 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating margin | 26.0% | 27.0% | 28.0% | -8.5% | -2.5% | Lower New | Actual: 29.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Non-GAAP net income per diluted share | 6.2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | -4.7% | Lower New | Actual: 7.03 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joseph, Paul C | EVP - Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 106.25 | 5,000 | 531,256 | 3,669,174 | Form |
| 2 | Ahola, Aaron | EVP & General Counsel | See footnote | Sell | 3162026 | 106.27 | 4,500 | 478,216 | 3,157,928 | Form |
| 3 | Williams, Anthony P | EVP and CHRO | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 104.29 | 15,000 | 1,564,419 | 2,301,157 | Form |
| 4 | Sundaram, Mani | EVP and GM Security | See footnote | Sell | 3092026 | 98.58 | 1,722 | 169,755 | 2,133,961 | Form |
| 5 | Ranganathan, Madhu | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 102.00 | 3,131 | 319,362 | 934,320 | Form |
AKAM Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock is a 'Value Trap'. While the pivot to Security and Cloud Compute is logical and shows promise, the company's competitive moat is highly contested, and the legacy CDN business is a significant structural drag. The low valuation is deceptive, as it reflects the market's correct assessment of high execution risk and the potential for the new growth engines to fail to outrun the legacy decline. The negative operating leverage ('Bloating') and bureaucratic management grade further reduce conviction in a successful turnaround.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: Type F ('Transition / Profit Pivot'), Secondary: Type B ('Quality Compounder / Stalwart')Akam is a mature tech company pivoting from its declining, low-growth legacy CDN business (a former Type B asset) to higher-growth Security and Cloud Compute segments. The market's negative reaction to heavy investment and margin pressure, despite growth in the new segments, is a classic Type F dynamic where investors are pricing it as a 'dead growth' story rather than a successful 'cash machine' transition.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for stock appreciation is the successful scaling of Akamai's specialized cloud computing services, particularly the Akamai Inference Cloud for AI workloads. This pivot transforms a significant portion of the business from a commoditized service (CDN) into a high-growth, high-margin infrastructure provider capitalizing on the secular AI trend.
- Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS) revenue growth accelerated to 45% YoY in Q4 2025.
- Management has guided for 45-50% growth in Cloud Infrastructure Services in FY2026.
- A major US tech company signed a 4-year, $200 million contract for these new services, validating the enterprise demand.
- The Edge Computing market is projected to grow at a ~27-43% CAGR through 2030.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is a faster-than-expected revenue decline in the legacy Content Delivery segment (still ~30% of revenue) as large customers are cannibalized by bundled, 'good-enough' offerings from hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google. This revenue hole could grow too quickly for the new Security and Compute segments to fill, leading to overall revenue stagnation or decline.
- Legacy Delivery segment revenue declined by 2% YoY in Q4 2025.
- Competitive positioning data indicates Akamai is 'LOSING' to Hyperscalers in this commoditizing market.
- CDN gross margins for tier-one operators fell from 65% in 2020 to 58% in 2025 due to aggressive pricing from competitors.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS) Revenue Growth | > 40% YoY | This is the primary growth engine and validates the entire AI / Edge Compute pivot. Deceleration below this level would break the bull thesis. |
| Delivery Revenue Growth | > -5% YoY | Signals whether the decline of the legacy business is managed and stable. An acceleration of this decline below -5% would indicate the 'Anti-Alpha' risk is materializing. |
| Non-GAAP Operating Margin | > 28% | Measures management's ability to fund the strategic pivot and high capex without destroying overall profitability. A sustained drop below this level indicates the transition is too costly. |
The Growth Pivot vs. The Legacy Drag
BULL VIEW
The AI/Cloud pivot is working. Strong CIS growth (+45%) validates the thesis, creating a higher-margin business. The legacy decline is managed.
CORE TENSION
Can high-growth Security & Cloud outrun the legacy CDN decline and justify heavy investment before the market loses patience with margin compression?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Market punished stock -14% after last earnings despite strong CIS growth (+45%), focusing instead on weak full-year guidance and compressing operating margins from high capex.
BEAR VIEW
The transition is too slow and costly. Margin pressure from AI capex and accelerating CDN decline will lead to EPS misses.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
May 7, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Delivery Revenue decline vs. >-5% YoY threshold and any revision to Non-GAAP Operating Margin guidance (currently targeting <29%). |
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS) Revenue Growth vs. >40% YoY threshold. Watch for evidence that the $200M contract is ramping. |
August 1-6, 2026 | Competitor Announcements at Black Hat USA 2026 Watch: Launch of a new, aggressively priced, or bundled security platform from Cloudflare, AWS, or Microsoft targeting Akamai's core WAAP/API security. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Jan-Mar 2026 | Significant Insider Selling Cluster Details: Despite a strong stock rally through Q1, corporate insiders sold over $7.1M worth of shares, including $5.7M by executives, with zero insider buy transactions reported. | Stock rose +34.9% during the period $85.10 -> $114.85 |
Nov 7, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Details: Reported strong results relative to expectations. CIS revenue grew +39% YoY, Security revenue grew +10% YoY, while legacy Delivery declined -4% YoY, driving the positive reaction. | Surged +14.7% $73.00 -> $83.74 |
Feb 19, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Weak FY26 Guidance Details: Beat Q4 estimates with CIS growth at +45% YoY and Security at +11% YoY. Stock crashed on weak FY26 EPS guidance due to margin pressure from AI-related capex. | Plummeted -14.1% $109.59 -> $94.17 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.7x S&P) with near-term fear spiking. The Bearish sentiment, Contested moat, and low visibility force a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
VRSN
INDUSTRYSuperior business model. VRSN has a durable, high-margin, near-monopoly on .com/.net domain registry, avoiding the intense competition and transition risk facing Akamai.
FFIV
SECTORA more focused play on application security and delivery. While it has its own transition risks (hardware to software), it lacks Akamai's declining legacy CDN business.
Akamai is re-rating from a legacy, slow-growth Content Delivery Network (CDN) to a higher-growth, higher-margin security and specialized cloud computing provider, driven by its expansion into cybersecurity and edge compute for AI workloads.
Filter all news through the lens of the Security & Compute transformation thesis; the key question is whether these growth segments can outpace the managed decline of the legacy Delivery business.
Security revenue growth >+10% YoY; Compute revenue (specifically Cloud Infrastructure Services) growth >+40% YoY; major enterprise or sovereign cloud design wins for the Akamai Connected Cloud or Akamai Inference Cloud; evidence of market share gains in WAAP or microsegmentation.
Deceleration of Security or Compute growth below targets; faster-than-expected revenue decline or margin erosion in the Delivery segment; major competitive wins by Cloudflare, Fastly, or hyperscalers in core CDN accounts; significant pricing pressure in security products.
Quarterly fluctuations in CDN traffic from major media events — this is the legacy, low-margin business; general market commentary on internet traffic growth — already priced in; partnerships with small tech vendors that don't move the revenue needle.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful scaling of Akamai's specialized cloud computing services for AI, specifically the Akamai Inference Cloud. This is validated by a 4-year, $200 million contract with a major US tech company and management's guidance for 45-50% growth in Cloud Infrastructure Services in FY2026. This transforms a portion of the business from a commoditizing service to a high-growth infrastructure play on the AI trend.
Cloud Security Solutions
$2.4B TTM (54% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
App & API Protector (WAAP); Prolexic (DDoS Protection); Guardicore Segmentation (Zero Trust/Ransomware protection); Account Protector (Bot Mitigation)
Who Pays & How
Enterprises like Ryt Bank and National Healthcare Network pay recurring fees to protect their web applications, APIs, and internal networks from cyberattacks. Switching costs are high due to deep integration into a company's security infrastructure and workflows, making it complex and risky to change vendors.
Competition
Cloud Computing & Content Delivery
$2.0B TTM (46% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Content Delivery Network (CDN) for video and web content; Akamai Connected Cloud (Linode acquisition) for compute, storage, and networking; Akamai Inference Cloud for AI workloads.
Who Pays & How
Major media companies, e-commerce sites, and gaming companies (e.g., adidas) pay usage-based fees to deliver their content (video, software, websites) to end-users globally with low latency and high reliability. The core value is performance at scale, which is critical for user experience and revenue generation.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.