Adobe (ADBE)
Market Price (12/2/2025): $322.25 | Market Cap: $136.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Adobe (ADBE)
Market Price (12/2/2025): $322.25Market Cap: $136.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADBE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Adobe (ADBE) stock moved by -9.5% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 3, 2025:
1. Conservative Outlook and Decelerating Revenue Growth: Adobe's initial fiscal year 2025 outlook was perceived as disappointing, indicating a deceleration in revenue growth compared to fiscal year 2024. This conservative stance extended to management's avoidance of providing explicit guidance for fiscal year 2026, which further fueled investor uncertainty regarding future growth.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: A series of negative adjustments from prominent financial analysts contributed to the stock's decline. During this period, firms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, TD Cowen, UBS, and Evercore ISI Group either downgraded Adobe's stock rating or reduced their price targets, signaling a less optimistic outlook for the company's valuation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADBE Return | 52% | 13% | -41% | 77% | -25% | -27% | -2% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 31% | -28% | 57% | 21% | -2% | 167% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADBE Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 60% | 32% | 62% | 58% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADBE Max Drawdown | -14% | -16% | -51% | -5% | -27% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -11% | -39% | -1% | -11% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORCL, CRM, INTU, ADSK, SNPS. See ADBE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/2/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADBE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1592 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ORCL, CRM, INTU, ADSK, SNPS
In The Past
Adobe's stock fell -60.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -60.0% loss requires a 150.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Adobe Earnings Notes | |||
| ADBE Now 39% Cheaper, Buy? | Actionable | ||
| High Margins, Lower Price: Is ADBE a Buy? | Actionable | ||
| How Low Can Adobe Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| ADBE Leadership & 41% Price Drop - Time to Buy? | Actionable | ||
| High Margins, Lower Price: Is ADBE a Buy? | Actionable | ||
| Better Bet Than ADBE Stock: Pay Less Than Adobe To Get More From OKE, CCL | |||
| Better Bet Than ADBE Stock: Pay Less Than Adobe To Get More From FSLR, IDCC | |||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for Adobe Stock with -8.6% Return (vs. -24% YTD) [8/5/2025] | Notification | ||
| ORCL or ADBE - With 44% Return Forecast, ADBE Probably Deserves Your Money | Peer Comparison | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Is It Time To Buy Adobe Stock? | December 1st, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 20th, 2025 | ||
| Adobe vs Oracle: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| Adobe Stock: Join the Rally at a 41% Discount | November 17th, 2025 | ||
| Between Adobe and Oracle, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out? | November 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADBE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.1% | -5.1% | -8.2% |
| 03312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -15.8% | -18.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.1% | -5.1% | -8.2% |
| 03312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -15.8% | -18.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Adobe
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 316.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 157.3 |
| Rev LTM | 21,006 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,662 |
| FCF LTM | 3,965 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,058 |
| CFO LTM | 8,000 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,782 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 157.3 |
| P/S | 10.2 |
| P/EBIT | 38.8 |
| P/E | 45.4 |
| P/CFO | 31.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9242025 | 10-Q 8/29/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6252025 | 10-Q 5/30/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3262025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1132025 | 10-K 11/29/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9252024 | 10-Q 8/30/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6262024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3272024 | 10-Q 3/1/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1172024 | 10-K 12/1/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9272023 | 10-Q 9/1/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6282023 | 10-Q 6/2/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3292023 | 10-Q 3/3/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1172023 | 10-K 12/2/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9282022 | 10-Q 9/2/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6292022 | 10-Q 6/3/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3302022 | 10-Q 3/4/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1212022 | 10-K 12/3/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
