Adobe (ADBE)
Market Price (12/10/2025): $345.25 | Market Cap: $146.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Adobe (ADBE)
Market Price (12/10/2025): $345.25Market Cap: $146.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% | AI competition increasing pressure from major players like Microsoft-backed OpenAI, Alphabet, and Canva. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil | Slow AI monetization concerns about translating new AI tools into significant revenue streams persist. | Moderating growth analysts note "moderating growth" with the removal of Digital Media ARR metric. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% | Opportunity cost Peers like APP (86.4% Rev Chg LTM) show higher revenue growth than ADBE (10.7%). | P/E Multiple Decline a -54.0% change in P/E multiple primarily drove the -37.2% stock price drop over 1Y. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| AI innovation aggressive integration (Firefly, GenStudio) driving engagement and exceeding AI-first product revenue targets. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADBE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -3.5% movement in Adobe's stock (ADBE) from August 31, 2025, to December 10, 2025: 1. Continued concerns regarding rising AI competition. Adobe's stock has faced pressure throughout 2025 due to increasing competition in the artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI (GenAI) space from major players such as Microsoft-backed OpenAI, Alphabet, Salesforce, Midjourney, and Canva. This persistent concern about the impact of innovation from competitors has weighed on investor sentiment. 2. Perceived "moderating growth" signaled by metric changes. Citi analysts pointed out that Adobe's decision to remove Digital Media annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth as a metric for the upcoming year, replacing it with total ARR, indicated a sign of "moderating growth." This analytical observation could have contributed to a negative outlook among investors.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADBE Return | 52% | 13% | -41% | 77% | -25% | -23% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 40% | 32% | -31% | 55% | 32% | 20% | 215% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADBE Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 28% | 62% | 67% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADBE Max Drawdown | -14% | -16% | -51% | -5% | -27% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -8% | -40% | -2% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, CRM, ORCL, GOOGL, ADSK. See ADBE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/9/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADBE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1592 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ORCL, CRM, INTU, ADSK, SNPS
In The Past
Adobe's stock fell -60.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -60.0% loss requires a 150.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Adobe Earnings Notes | |||
| ADBE Now 39% Cheaper, Buy? | Actionable | ||
| High Margins, Lower Price: Is ADBE a Buy? | Actionable | ||
| Adobe Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| ADBE Leadership & 41% Price Drop - Time to Buy? | Actionable | ||
| High Margins, Lower Price: Is ADBE a Buy? | Actionable | ||
| Better Bet Than ADBE Stock: Pay Less Than Adobe To Get More From OKE, CCL | |||
| Better Bet Than ADBE Stock: Pay Less Than Adobe To Get More From FSLR, IDCC | |||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for Adobe Stock with -8.6% Return (vs. -24% YTD) [8/5/2025] | Notification | ||
| ORCL or ADBE - With 44% Return Forecast, ADBE Probably Deserves Your Money | Peer Comparison | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| How Will Adobe Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | December 9th, 2025 | ||
| Between Adobe and Salesforce, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out? | December 9th, 2025 | ||
| Salesforce vs Adobe: Which Stock Could Rally? | December 8th, 2025 | ||
| Adobe vs Oracle: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Is Adobe a Better Buy Than Oracle? | December 3rd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADBE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.4% | 9.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.9% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.9% | 14.9% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.6% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -8.2% |
| 03312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -10.2% | -18.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.4% | 9.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.9% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.9% | 14.9% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.6% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -8.2% |
| 03312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -10.2% | -18.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Adobe
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 308.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 436.7 |
| Rev LTM | 49,668 |
| Op Inc LTM | 13,774 |
| FCF LTM | 11,247 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,559 |
| CFO LTM | 17,518 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,675 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 436.7 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| P/EBIT | 25.3 |
| P/E | 35.5 |
| P/CFO | 22.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 103.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 22.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/11/2025 | -0.3% | 4.8% | -3.7% |
| 6/12/2025 | -5.3% | -8.9% | -12.5% |
| 3/12/2025 | -13.9% | -11.6% | -20.2% |
| 12/11/2024 | -13.7% | -19.8% | -25.0% |
| 9/12/2024 | -8.5% | -10.2% | -15.5% |
| 6/13/2024 | 14.5% | 16.3% | 23.5% |
| 3/14/2024 | -13.7% | -10.4% | -17.6% |
| 12/13/2023 | -6.3% | -4.5% | -4.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 6.2% | 10.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -9.6% | -11.5% |
| Max Positive | 17.7% | 16.3% | 23.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -22.9% | -25.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9242025 | 10-Q 8/29/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6252025 | 10-Q 5/30/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3262025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1132025 | 10-K 11/29/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9252024 | 10-Q 8/30/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6262024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3272024 | 10-Q 3/1/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1172024 | 10-K 12/1/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9272023 | 10-Q 9/1/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6282023 | 10-Q 6/2/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3292023 | 10-Q 3/3/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1172023 | 10-K 12/2/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9282022 | 10-Q 9/2/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6292022 | 10-Q 6/3/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3302022 | 10-Q 3/4/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1212022 | 10-K 12/3/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
