Tearsheet

Adobe (ADBE)


Market Price (12/10/2025): $345.25 | Market Cap: $146.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Adobe (ADBE)


Market Price (12/10/2025): $345.25
Market Cap: $146.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


Our Take: Despite AI competition and moderating growth leading to stock underperformance, Adobe's strong core businesses and strategic AI integration position it for future revenue expansion, supported by a $454.15 average analyst price target.

0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%
AI competition
increasing pressure from major players like Microsoft-backed OpenAI, Alphabet, and Canva.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil
Slow AI monetization
concerns about translating new AI tools into significant revenue streams persist.
Moderating growth
analysts note "moderating growth" with the removal of Digital Media ARR metric.
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.9%
Opportunity cost
Peers like APP (86.4% Rev Chg LTM) show higher revenue growth than ADBE (10.7%).
P/E Multiple Decline
a -54.0% change in P/E multiple primarily drove the -37.2% stock price drop over 1Y.
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
4 AI innovation
aggressive integration (Firefly, GenStudio) driving engagement and exceeding AI-first product revenue targets.
  

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Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADBE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -3.5% movement in Adobe's stock (ADBE) from August 31, 2025, to December 10, 2025: 1. Continued concerns regarding rising AI competition. Adobe's stock has faced pressure throughout 2025 due to increasing competition in the artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI (GenAI) space from major players such as Microsoft-backed OpenAI, Alphabet, Salesforce, Midjourney, and Canva. This persistent concern about the impact of innovation from competitors has weighed on investor sentiment. 2. Perceived "moderating growth" signaled by metric changes. Citi analysts pointed out that Adobe's decision to remove Digital Media annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth as a metric for the upcoming year, replacing it with total ARR, indicated a sign of "moderating growth." This analytical observation could have contributed to a negative outlook among investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADBE Return52%13%-41%77%-25%-23%4%
Peers Return40%32%-31%55%32%20%215%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADBE Win Rate67%67%33%67%33%20% 
Peers Win Rate63%65%28%62%67%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADBE Max Drawdown-14%-16%-51%-5%-27%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-8%-40%-2%-9%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, CRM, ORCL, GOOGL, ADSK. See ADBE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/9/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADBES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-25.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven69 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven200.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1592 days1480 days

Compare to ORCL, CRM, INTU, ADSK, SNPS


In The Past

Adobe's stock fell -60.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -60.0% loss requires a 150.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Adobe (ADBE)

Interactive Breakdown

Adobe Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Adobe (ADBE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADBE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.4%9.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.9%14.9%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
8.6%8.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.2%1.2%-8.2%
ADBE_3312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%-10.2%-18.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.4%9.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.9%14.9%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
8.6%8.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.2%1.2%-8.2%
ADBE_3312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%-10.2%-18.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Adobe

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADBEMSFTCRMORCLGOOGLADSKMedian
NameAdobe MicrosoftSalesfor.Oracle Alphabet Autodesk  
Mkt Price344.32492.02261.02221.53317.08300.75308.91
Mkt Cap145.63,657.2247.4626.03,832.267.7436.7
Rev LTM23,181293,81240,31759,018385,4776,88849,668
Op Inc LTM8,402135,9378,88018,667124,0771,64413,774
FCF LTM9,59978,01712,895-5,88073,5522,08311,247
FCF 3Y Avg7,92571,30211,1944,94968,9981,6909,559
CFO LTM9,792147,03913,50221,534151,4242,15517,518
CFO 3Y Avg8,185121,38411,88219,468120,9901,76515,675

Growth & Margins

ADBEMSFTCRMORCLGOOGLADSKMedian
NameAdobe MicrosoftSalesfor.Oracle Alphabet Autodesk  
Rev Chg LTM10.7%15.6%8.4%9.7%13.4%15.6%12.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.5%13.2%10.0%10.2%11.0%12.1%10.8%
Rev Chg Q10.7%18.4%8.6%12.2%15.9%18.0%14.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.6%4.3%2.1%2.8%3.8%4.3%3.3%
Op Mgn LTM36.2%46.3%22.0%31.6%32.2%23.9%31.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg35.4%44.6%19.2%30.3%29.9%22.0%30.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.6%0.8%0.2%-0.5%0.9%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM42.2%50.0%33.5%36.5%39.3%31.3%37.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg39.0%47.2%31.8%35.6%35.3%29.1%35.5%
FCF/Rev LTM41.4%26.6%32.0%-10.0%19.1%30.2%28.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg37.7%28.0%30.0%9.8%20.5%27.9%28.0%

Valuation

ADBEMSFTCRMORCLGOOGLADSKMedian
NameAdobe MicrosoftSalesfor.Oracle Alphabet Autodesk  
Mkt Cap145.63,657.2247.4626.03,832.267.7436.7
P/S7.113.16.110.57.69.88.7
P/EBIT18.829.625.334.219.3-25.3
P/E23.536.734.349.723.660.935.5
P/CFO16.726.218.328.719.431.422.8
Total Yield4.3%3.4%3.4%2.8%4.6%1.6%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.5%0.8%0.3%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.0%2.3%4.9%1.6%3.3%-3.3%
D/E0.00.00.00.20.0-0.0
Net D/E0.0-0.0-0.00.2-0.0--0.0

Returns

ADBEMSFTCRMORCLGOOGLADSKMedian
NameAdobe MicrosoftSalesfor.Oracle Alphabet Autodesk  
1M Rtn5.3%-0.8%8.8%-7.4%13.8%1.2%3.3%
3M Rtn-2.8%-1.1%3.7%-8.1%32.4%-7.5%-1.9%
6M Rtn-17.2%4.8%-2.4%25.3%77.8%1.1%3.0%
12M Rtn-37.2%11.1%-25.3%17.5%81.5%-2.5%4.3%
3Y Rtn4.1%105.3%101.2%187.9%244.2%54.8%103.2%
1M Excs Rtn3.7%-2.4%7.2%-9.1%12.1%-0.5%1.6%
3M Excs Rtn-6.4%-6.2%2.9%-37.1%27.9%-11.8%-6.3%
6M Excs Rtn-30.5%-8.4%-15.6%12.0%64.5%-12.2%-10.3%
12M Excs Rtn-48.6%-0.6%-39.9%7.5%72.0%-14.0%-7.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-67.2%29.5%14.5%107.8%150.1%-18.5%22.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Digital Media14,21612,84211,5209,2337,707
Digital Experience4,8934,4223,8673,1252,795
Publishing and Advertising300342398510669
Total19,40917,60615,78512,86811,171


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,263,926
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-0.3%
Average Daily Volume3,631,579
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.38
Basic Shares Quantity423,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/11/2025-0.3%4.8%-3.7%
6/12/2025-5.3%-8.9%-12.5%
3/12/2025-13.9%-11.6%-20.2%
12/11/2024-13.7%-19.8%-25.0%
9/12/2024-8.5%-10.2%-15.5%
6/13/202414.5%16.3%23.5%
3/14/2024-13.7%-10.4%-17.6%
12/13/2023-6.3%-4.5%-4.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81111
# Negative171414
Median Positive4.4%6.2%10.2%
Median Negative-5.3%-9.6%-11.5%
Max Positive17.7%16.3%23.5%
Max Negative-16.8%-22.9%-25.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025924202510-Q 8/29/2025
5312025625202510-Q 5/30/2025
2282025326202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024113202510-K 11/29/2024
8312024925202410-Q 8/30/2024
5312024626202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024327202410-Q 3/1/2024
11302023117202410-K 12/1/2023
8312023927202310-Q 9/1/2023
5312023628202310-Q 6/2/2023
2282023329202310-Q 3/3/2023
11302022117202310-K 12/2/2022
8312022928202210-Q 9/2/2022
5312022629202210-Q 6/3/2022
2282022330202210-Q 3/4/2022
11302021121202210-K 12/3/2021