Airbnb (ABNB)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $122.11 | Market Cap: $74.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Airbnb (ABNB)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $122.11Market Cap: $74.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.6 Bil | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.2% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.6 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ABNB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Airbnb's (ABNB) stock moved by -7.8% from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025:
1. Q2 2025 Earnings Outlook and Weakening Demand: Despite beating second-quarter revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates on August 6, 2025, Airbnb's stock declined significantly by 7.5% due to the company's forecast of slower growth for the second half of the year and signs of weakening demand in core markets for alternative accommodations.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Miss and Modest Q4 Outlook: On November 6, 2025, Airbnb reported third-quarter revenue that slightly exceeded expectations, but its reported EPS of $2.21 missed the consensus estimate of $2.31. The company's guidance for Q4 2025 implied a slower year-over-year revenue growth rate compared to the third quarter, which contributed to investor caution.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ABNB Return | - | 13% | -49% | 59% | -3% | -8% | -17% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 24% | -35% | 53% | 25% | -3% | 46% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ABNB Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 60% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 52% | 55% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ABNB Max Drawdown | - | -10% | -50% | -1% | -17% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -62% | -9% | -41% | -7% | -22% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAR, EXPE, HGV, TRIP, TZOO. See ABNB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ABNB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 148 days |
Compare to MAR, EXPE, HGV, TRIP, TZOO
In The Past
Airbnb's stock fell -62.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -62.0% loss requires a 162.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ABNB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.0% | 2.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.8% | -1.8% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.0% | 2.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.8% | -1.8% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Airbnb
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 80.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.1 |
| Rev LTM | 8,470 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,264 |
| FCF LTM | 1,093 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,213 |
| CFO LTM | 1,523 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,580 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.1 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 14.5 |
| P/E | 26.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 14.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.3% | ||
| 8/6/2025 | -8.0% | -4.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | 14.4% | 3.6% | -10.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -8.7% | -8.7% | -6.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | -13.4% | -10.4% | -11.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -6.9% | -7.7% | -7.1% |
| 2/13/2024 | -1.7% | -1.0% | 10.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 5 | 6 |
| # Negative | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 3.6% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -6.6% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.4% | 7.4% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -19.9% | -16.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Mertz Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | 10302025 | Sell | 130.00 | 7,500 | 975,000 | 56,754,113 | Form |
| 1 | Gebbia Joseph | 10292025 | Sell | 126.68 | 11,689 | 1,480,761 | 87,703,788 | Form | |
| 2 | BALOGH ARISTOTLE N | Chief Technology Officer | 10272025 | Sell | 127.53 | 600 | 76,518 | 25,073,160 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |