Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $277.12 | Market Cap: $4.1 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $277.12Market Cap: $4.1 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% | High Valuation P/S of 9.3 and P/E of 38.2 are above peer medians (5.6 and 28.4). |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 109 Bil, FCF LTM is 96 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.7% | Regulatory Scrutiny App Store policies face increasing antitrust pressure from EU and US DOJ. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Significant Max Drawdown Stock experienced a -31.3% loss during the 2022 Inflation Shock. | Slower Revenue Growth 3-year average revenue growth of 1.8% trails S&P 500's 5.5% average. |
| Strong Services Growth Revenue climbed 15% YoY to $28.8 billion in FY25, driven by subscriptions. | Opportunity Cost Technology Hardware peers like WDC show higher LTM revenue growth at 39.2%. | |
| New iPhone Demand iPhone 17 lineup projected to drive double-digit sales growth in fiscal Q1 2026. | Analysts Neutral Consensus suggests limited upside of 3.3%, with average price target of $287.0 |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AAPL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 8, 2025, Apple's (AAPL) stock experienced an approximate increase of 19.25%, moving from a closing price of $232.56 on August 28, 2025, to $277.34 on December 8, 2025. The key factors influencing this movement include:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings: Apple reported robust fiscal third-quarter results, ending June 28, 2025, which exceeded revenue and earnings per share expectations. Revenue reached $94 billion, nearly 10% higher than the previous year, and earnings per share were $1.57, topping forecasts. This strong performance, particularly in iPhone revenue and services growth, contributed to a significant stock rebound in August.
2. Successful iPhone 17 Launch and Demand: The anticipation surrounding and the subsequent launch of the iPhone 17 series, along with updated Apple Watch models, in September 2025, significantly boosted investor confidence. Reports indicated strong early sales and continued demand for the iPhone 17 lineup in key markets, including China and the U.S., outperforming previous iPhone generations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAPL Return | 82% | 35% | -26% | 49% | 31% | 11% | 292% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 46% | -34% | 62% | 32% | 18% | 248% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAPL Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 75% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 70% | 32% | 73% | 62% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAPL Max Drawdown | -23% | -12% | -29% | -4% | -14% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -4% | -40% | -4% | -5% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ. See AAPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 281 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -31.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -31.3% loss requires a 45.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Apple Earnings Notes | |||
| What Could Spark the Next Big Move In Apple Stock | |||
| Should You Buy Apple Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Apple Stock | |||
| What Could Spark the Apple Stock's Next Big Move | |||
| Apple Stock Surged 30%, Here's Why | |||
| Apple Stock: 3 Risks You Need to Know | |||
| What Could Send Apple Stock Soaring | |||
| How Low Can Apple Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Better Bet Than AAPL Stock: Pay Less Than Apple To Get More From SMCI | Actionable | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What Could Spark the Next Big Move In Apple Stock | December 5th, 2025 | ||
| Buy or Sell Apple Stock? | December 4th, 2025 | ||
| What Is Happening With Apple Stock? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AAPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.3% | 14.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.9% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | AAPL | Apple | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 49.7% | 49.0% | -3.8% |
| 12312018 | AAPL | Apple | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.8% | 89.0% | -9.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.3% | 14.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.9% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | AAPL | Apple | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 49.7% | 49.0% | -3.8% |
| 12312018 | AAPL | Apple | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.8% | 89.0% | -9.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Apple
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 252.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 3,031.6 |
| Rev LTM | 339,644 |
| Op Inc LTM | 100,134 |
| FCF LTM | 43,516 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 45,337 |
| CFO LTM | 114,851 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 104,268 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3,031.6 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | 23.4 |
| P/E | 28.4 |
| P/CFO | 19.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 129.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 49.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone | 200,583 | 205,489 | 191,973 | 137,781 | 101,991 |
| Services | 85,200 | 78,129 | 68,425 | 53,768 | 18,063 |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories | 39,845 | 41,241 | 38,367 | 30,620 | |
| Mac | 29,357 | 40,177 | 35,190 | 28,622 | 24,079 |
| iPad | 28,300 | 29,292 | 31,862 | 23,724 | 30,283 |
| Other Products | 8,379 | ||||
| Total | 383,285 | 394,328 | 365,817 | 274,515 | 182,795 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.5% | 0.8% | -6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 15 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.5% | 18.4% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-K 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-K 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-K 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1282022 | 10-Q 12/25/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | KONDO CHRIS | Principal Accounting Officer | 11122025 | Sell | 271.23 | 3,752 | 1,017,655 | 4,095,031 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
