Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (11/29/2025): $41.85 | Market Cap: $10.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (11/29/2025): $41.85Market Cap: $10.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.1% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -80% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -80% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Improved Financial Management and Strong Liquidity: Alcoa demonstrated proactive financial management by announcing its intention to redeem $141 million of outstanding 5.500% notes due 2027, utilizing its robust cash reserves of $1.49 billion as of September 30, 2025. This move signals a strengthened balance sheet and renewed market confidence.
2. Favorable Aluminum Market Dynamics and Supply Deficit: The global aluminum market experienced a significant shift from a surplus in 2024 to an anticipated supply deficit in 2025, with some analysts forecasting a shortfall of 400,000 to 600,000 metric tons. This tightening supply, coupled with slowing production growth and a gradual recovery in global demand, drove aluminum prices to a three-year high by mid-September 2025. Price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025 indicated fluctuations around $2,300-$2,700 per ton.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AA Return | 7% | 159% | -23% | -24% | 12% | 11% | 102% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 39% | 3% | 18% | 27% | 58% | 267% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AA Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 50% | 48% | 57% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AA Max Drawdown | -75% | -22% | -43% | -48% | -25% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -18% | -27% | -19% | -17% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PAAS, ATI, MLI, KALU, AA. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 306.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 292.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 260.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 860 days | 120 days |
Compare to PAAS, ATI, MLI, KALU, AA
In The Past
Alcoa's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/24/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Alcoa Earnings Notes | |||
| With Alcoa Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| Alcoa vs United Airlines: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Is Alcoa Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | Peer Comparison | ||
| AA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Alcoa Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 13.6% in 2024 and -11.9% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Alcoa (AA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alcoa (AA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alcoa (AA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alcoa (AA) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why Did Alcoa Stock Jump 40%? | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Alcoa Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | October 20th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Alcoa Stock? | September 30th, 2025 | ||
| How Alcoa Stock Can Fall 50%? | August 28th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Alcoa Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | July 10th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | -2.7% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -18.2% | -18.2% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.2% | 10.2% | -7.3% |
| 09302022 | AA | Alcoa | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.0% | -12.8% | -22.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | -2.7% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -18.2% | -18.2% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.2% | 10.2% | -7.3% |
| 09302022 | AA | Alcoa | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.0% | -12.8% | -22.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alcoa
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.90 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| Rev LTM | 4,140 |
| Op Inc LTM | 682 |
| FCF LTM | 519 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 153 |
| CFO LTM | 754 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 493 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.0 |
| P/E | 15.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 30.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 41.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 37.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 196.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 23.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 26.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 150.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 6,940 | 8,762 | 8,784 | 6,377 | 6,820 |
| Alumina | 5,261 | 5,432 | 4,725 | 3,895 | 4,811 |
| Other | 13 | -8 | 11 | 22 | 83 |
| Elimination of intersegment sales | -1,663 | -1,735 | -2,315 | -2,221 | -2,557 |
| Bauxite | 947 | 1,213 | 1,276 | ||
| Total | 10,551 | 12,451 | 12,152 | 9,286 | 10,433 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alumina | 6,153 | 5,859 | 4,385 | 4,333 | 4,303 |
| Aluminum | 5,854 | 6,358 | 6,251 | 6,214 | 6,588 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 944 | 1,363 | 1,814 | 1,607 | 879 |
| Corporate fixed assets, net | 392 | 364 | 374 | 453 | 519 |
| Other | 371 | 355 | 222 | 182 | 291 |
| Deferred income taxes | 333 | 296 | 506 | 655 | 642 |
| Corporate goodwill | 142 | 141 | 140 | 141 | 145 |
| Pension assets | 125 | 146 | 164 | ||
| Elimination of intersegment receivables | -159 | -126 | -261 | -193 | -170 |
| Bauxite | 1,430 | 1,468 | 1,434 | ||
| Total | 14,155 | 14,756 | 15,025 | 14,860 | 14,631 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
| 4/16/2025 | -7.0% | 5.5% | 17.3% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.7% | -9.4% | -11.3% |
| 10/16/2024 | -4.1% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 7/10/2024 | 1.9% | -4.3% | -20.4% |
| 4/17/2024 | -0.2% | 1.5% | 12.9% |
| 1/17/2024 | -1.6% | 9.5% | 0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 16 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 6.0% | 17.3% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -10.1% | -11.3% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 14.8% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
