Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85%
2 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AA Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AA Return7%159%-23%-24%12%-2%91%
Peers Return8%39%3%18%27%46%238%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AA Win Rate67%75%42%42%50%56% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%48%57%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AA Max Drawdown-75%-22%-43%-48%-25%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-59%-18%-27%-19%-17%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PAAS, ATI, MLI, KALU, AA. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven306.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-74.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven292.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven256 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-72.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven260.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven860 days120 days

Compare to PAAS, ATI, MLI, KALU, AA


In The Past

Alcoa's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/24/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alcoa (AA)

Interactive Breakdown

Alcoa Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Alcoa (AA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.0%3.0%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.8%-16.8%-16.8%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.0%8.0%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.5%14.5%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.1%-23.1%-23.3%
AA_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302022AAAlcoaDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
27.0%-12.8%-22.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.0%3.0%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.8%-16.8%-16.8%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.0%8.0%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.5%14.5%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.1%-23.1%-23.3%
AA_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302022AAAlcoaDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
27.0%-12.8%-22.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alcoa

Financials

AAPAASATIMLIKALUMedian
NameAlcoa Pan Amer.ATI Mueller .Kaiser A. 
Mkt Price36.7635.53101.18105.4288.6388.63
Mkt Cap9.512.913.911.51.411.5
Rev LTM12,8683,1164,5834,1403,2094,140
Op Inc LTM1,337682631887144682
FCF LTM51968044467613519
FCF 3Y Avg-592041536505153
CFO LTM1,063968679754175754
CFO 3Y Avg493528372713169493

Growth & Margins

AAPAASATIMLIKALUMedian
NameAlcoa Pan Amer.ATI Mueller .Kaiser A. 
Rev Chg LTM16.9%21.1%7.7%15.7%7.7%15.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.5%24.5%8.6%1.3%-2.2%1.3%
Rev Chg Q3.1%18.3%7.1%8.0%12.8%8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%4.2%1.6%2.0%3.1%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM10.4%21.9%13.8%21.4%4.5%13.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.2%9.1%12.4%21.4%3.5%9.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.8%4.1%0.2%1.0%1.0%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM8.3%31.1%14.8%18.2%5.5%14.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.0%19.0%8.4%19.0%5.4%8.4%
FCF/Rev LTM4.0%21.8%9.7%16.3%0.4%9.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.8%5.3%3.3%17.3%0.2%3.3%

Valuation

AAPAASATIMLIKALUMedian
NameAlcoa Pan Amer.ATI Mueller .Kaiser A. 
Mkt Cap9.512.913.911.51.411.5
P/S0.74.13.02.80.42.8
P/EBIT6.315.120.111.69.111.6
P/E8.324.631.215.416.816.8
P/CFO9.013.320.415.28.213.3
Total Yield13.1%5.2%3.2%7.2%6.8%6.8%
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%0.0%0.7%0.9%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.9%1.6%0.9%9.8%0.5%0.9%
D/E0.30.10.10.00.70.1
Net D/E0.1-0.00.1-0.10.70.1

Returns

AAPAASATIMLIKALUMedian
NameAlcoa Pan Amer.ATI Mueller .Kaiser A. 
1M Rtn11.8%-8.3%24.4%4.3%15.8%11.8%
3M Rtn23.1%32.0%31.5%23.8%15.6%23.8%
6M Rtn50.8%49.1%62.6%44.3%35.4%49.1%
12M Rtn-8.5%48.5%86.6%28.5%20.2%28.5%
3Y Rtn-2.6%137.7%240.0%250.8%24.1%137.7%
1M Excs Rtn6.9%-11.2%20.2%3.8%12.4%6.9%
3M Excs Rtn20.5%22.6%22.5%17.5%11.6%20.5%
6M Excs Rtn29.1%27.3%40.8%22.6%13.6%27.3%
12M Excs Rtn-27.3%30.7%42.9%11.2%4.1%11.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-84.9%60.2%159.6%174.3%-52.2%60.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum6,9408,7628,7846,3776,820
Alumina5,2615,4324,7253,8954,811
Other13-8112283
Elimination of intersegment sales-1,663-1,735-2,315-2,221-2,557
Bauxite  9471,2131,276
Total10,55112,45112,1529,28610,433


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Alumina6,1535,8594,3854,3334,303
Aluminum5,8546,3586,2516,2146,588
Cash and cash equivalents9441,3631,8141,607879
Corporate fixed assets, net392364374453519
Other371355222182291
Deferred income taxes333296506655642
Corporate goodwill142141140141145
Pension assets125146164  
Elimination of intersegment receivables-159-126-261-193-170
Bauxite  1,4301,4681,434
Total14,15514,75615,02514,86014,631


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,421,881
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202524.8%
Average Daily Volume7,344,286
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.56
Basic Shares Quantity259,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/202512.6%9.1% 
7/16/20252.9%12.4%10.1%
4/16/2025-7.0%5.5%17.3%
1/22/2025-3.7%-9.4%-11.3%
10/16/2024-4.1%-0.5%-1.8%
7/10/20241.9%-4.3%-20.4%
4/17/2024-0.2%1.5%12.9%
1/17/2024-1.6%9.5%0.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81514
# Negative16910
Median Positive3.2%6.0%18.5%
Median Negative-5.0%-10.1%-11.3%
Max Positive15.2%14.8%31.0%
Max Negative-16.9%-19.5%-28.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bacchi RenatoEVP & Chief Commercial Officer10242024Sell42.2923,8671,009,4312,424,165Form