Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (10/25/2025): $115.44 | Market Cap: $500.0 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (10/25/2025): $115.44Market Cap: $500.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 5.8% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 54 Bil, FCF LTM is 29 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 54 Bil, FCF LTM is 29 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
XOM Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XOM Return | -36% | 58% | 87% | -6% | 11% | 11% | 111% |
| Peers Return | -33% | 58% | 69% | 4% | -3% | 16% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XOM Win Rate | 25% | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 70% | 63% | 53% | 48% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XOM Max Drawdown | -54% | 0% | 0% | -9% | -3% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -61% | -1% | -0% | -12% | -10% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, MPC, XOM, BP. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 659 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1169 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1738 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CVX, COP, MPC, XOM, BP
In The Past
Exxon Mobil's stock fell -20.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -20.5% loss requires a 25.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to XOM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | TDW | Tidewater | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -11.3% |
| 09302025 | OKE | ONEOK | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.4% | -4.4% | -7.9% |
| 08312025 | LEU | Centrus Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 70.6% | 70.6% | -1.3% |
| 05312025 | KNTK | Kinetik | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.2% | -7.2% | -18.1% |
| 04302025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.9% | 3.9% | -11.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | TDW | Tidewater | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -11.3% |
| 09302025 | OKE | ONEOK | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.4% | -4.4% | -7.9% |
| 08312025 | LEU | Centrus Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 70.6% | 70.6% | -1.3% |
| 05312025 | KNTK | Kinetik | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.2% | -7.2% | -18.1% |
| 04302025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.9% | 3.9% | -11.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Exxon Mobil
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 115.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 110.7 |
| Rev LTM | 186,538 |
| Op Inc LTM | 12,827 |
| FCF LTM | 8,590 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 15,777 |
| CFO LTM | 23,293 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 30,100 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 110.7 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 10.7 |
| P/E | 19.5 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | 9.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -60.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Products | 320,122 | 371,872 | 250,738 | 133,367 | |
| Upstream | 85,527 | 116,898 | 71,894 | 14,549 | 23,143 |
| Chemical Products | 33,899 | 41,901 | 38,703 | 17,634 | |
| Specialty Products | 21,532 | 23,291 | 20,273 | 12,986 | |
| Intersegment revenue | -126,451 | -155,323 | -105,173 | ||
| Corporate and Financing | 257 | 38 | 41 | ||
| Chemical | 27,416 | ||||
| Downstream | 204,983 | ||||
| Total | 334,629 | 398,639 | 276,692 | 178,574 | 255,583 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 21,308 | 36,479 | 15,775 | -20,030 | 14,442 |
| Energy Products | 12,142 | 14,966 | -346 | -2,572 | |
| Specialty Products | 2,714 | 2,415 | 3,259 | 1,201 | |
| Chemical Products | 1,637 | 3,543 | 6,989 | 2,257 | |
| Corporate and Financing | -1,791 | -1,663 | -2,636 | -3,296 | -3,017 |
| Chemical | 592 | ||||
| Downstream | 2,323 | ||||
| Total | 36,010 | 55,740 | 23,041 | -22,440 | 14,340 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 206,366 | 206,459 | 209,272 | 216,017 | 246,931 |
| Energy Products | 74,460 | 73,565 | 64,630 | 56,758 | |
| Corporate and Financing | 49,817 | 44,671 | 22,863 | 20,072 | 18,171 |
| Chemical Products | 34,675 | 33,217 | 31,250 | 29,182 | |
| Specialty Products | 10,999 | 11,155 | 10,908 | 10,721 | |
| Chemical | 36,920 | ||||
| Downstream | 60,575 | ||||
| Total | 376,317 | 369,067 | 338,923 | 332,750 | 362,597 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11032021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Talley Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | 8252025 | Sell | 110.45 | 2,158 | 238,351 | 1,527,414 | Form |
| 1 | Talley Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | 3182025 | Sell | 113.00 | 2,100 | 237,300 | 1,806,531 | Form |
| 2 | Talley Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | 2052025 | Sell | 110.00 | 2,100 | 231,000 | 1,989,570 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
