Wayfair (W)
Market Price (10/17/2025): $83.19 | Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Wayfair (W)
Market Price (10/17/2025): $83.19Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -172 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.4% | |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x | ||
Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 213% | ||
Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% | ||
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.3% |
Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -172 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.4% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x |
Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 213% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% |
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.3% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
W Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
W Return | 150% | -16% | -83% | 88% | -28% | 88% | -18% |
Peers Return | 22% | 9% | -11% | 34% | 21% | -2% | 86% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
W Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 17% | 58% | 50% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 33% | 38% | 23% | 45% | 40% | 49% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
W Max Drawdown | -74% | -16% | -85% | -6% | -39% | -46% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -4% | -18% | -1% | -4% | -13% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BBBY, AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BGO. See W Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/16/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | W | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -91.8% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 1118.6% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -78.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 367.1% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -53.4% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 114.8% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Wayfair's stock fell -91.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -91.8% loss requires a 1118.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to W. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.3% | -19.3% | -19.3% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.3% | -2.3% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.9% | -7.9% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.7% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.3% | -19.3% | -19.3% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.3% | -2.3% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.9% | -7.9% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Wayfair
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 106.47 |
Mkt Cap | 430.0 |
Rev LTM | 12,008 |
Op Inc LTM | 387 |
FCF LTM | 416 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 525 |
CFO LTM | 464 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 571 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
Rev Chg Q | 4.8% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 430.0 |
P/S | 1.1 |
P/EBIT | 18.7 |
P/E | 25.3 |
P/CFO | 20.5 |
Total Yield | 3.2% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
D/E | 0.2 |
Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -8.4% |
3M Rtn | 4.0% |
6M Rtn | 19.5% |
12M Rtn | 23.6% |
3Y Rtn | 120.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
3M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
6M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
12M Excs Rtn | 11.0% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 35.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/4/2025 | 12.7% | 11.0% | 19.1% |
5/1/2025 | 3.5% | 1.0% | 36.7% |
2/20/2025 | -0.6% | -8.0% | -31.9% |
11/1/2024 | -6.3% | -7.1% | 12.3% |
8/1/2024 | -8.1% | -25.7% | -22.6% |
5/2/2024 | 16.0% | 35.0% | 17.7% |
2/22/2024 | 10.8% | 18.3% | 34.7% |
11/1/2023 | 4.2% | 8.7% | 31.0% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 13 | 13 | 13 |
# Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Median Positive | 7.2% | 10.6% | 18.5% |
Median Negative | -6.3% | -14.2% | -20.8% |
Max Positive | 16.2% | 35.0% | 38.1% |
Max Negative | -23.0% | -25.7% | -34.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Shah Niraj | Chief Executive Officer | 9242025 | Sell | 85.53 | 19,500 | 1,667,835 | 37,602,153 | Form |
1 | Conine Steven | Co-Founder | 9242025 | Sell | 85.54 | 19,504 | 1,668,372 | 37,600,732 | Form |
2 | Kumin Michael Andrew | 9042025 | Buy | 74.97 | 160 | 11,995 | 19,535,458 | Form | |
3 | Conine Steven | Co-Founder | 8212025 | Sell | 78.52 | 5,117 | 401,787 | 42,318,825 | Form |
4 | Shah Niraj | Chief Executive Officer | 8212025 | Sell | 78.51 | 5,126 | 402,442 | 42,317,754 | Form |
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