Tearsheet

Wayfair (W)


Market Price (10/17/2025): $83.19 | Market Cap: $10.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

Wayfair (W)


Market Price (10/17/2025): $83.19
Market Cap: $10.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights


0  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -172 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.4%
1   Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 213%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.3%
0 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
1 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -172 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.4%
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 213%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.3%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

W Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
W Return150%-16%-83%88%-28%88%-18%
Peers Return22%9%-11%34%21%-2%86%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
W Win Rate58%50%17%58%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate33%38%23%45%40%49% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
W Max Drawdown-74%-16%-85%-6%-39%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-4%-18%-1%-4%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BBBY, AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BGO. See W Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/16/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-91.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1118.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-78.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven367.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven36 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-53.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven114.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven153 days120 days


How Low Can It Go?

Wayfair's stock fell -91.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -91.8% loss requires a 1118.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than Wayfair (W)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to W. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-19.3%-19.3%-19.3%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.3%-2.3%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.9%-7.9%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-6.4%-6.4%-11.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-19.3%-19.3%-19.3%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.3%-2.3%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.9%-7.9%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-6.4%-6.4%-11.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Wayfair

Financials

WBBBYAMZNWMTNSITBGOMedian
NameWayfair Bed Bath.Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bialgo C. 
Mkt Price83.187.95214.47106.47108.76-106.47
Mkt Cap10.6-2,281.3849.43.5-430.0
Rev LTM12,0081,129670,038693,1538,426-12,008
Op Inc LTM-172-12876,19028,988387-387
FCF LTM184-11313,48113,753416-416
FCF 3Y Avg-128-11521,67714,986525-525
CFO LTM388-99121,13738,438464-464
CFO 3Y Avg170-8796,97736,707571-571

Growth & Margins

WBBBYAMZNWMTNSITBGOMedian
NameWayfair Bed Bath.Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bialgo C. 
Rev Chg LTM0.9%-26.6%10.9%4.2%-8.7%-0.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.7%-21.3%11.3%5.7%-5.1%--1.7%
Rev Chg Q5.0%-29.1%13.3%4.8%-11.6%-4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%-9.3%3.0%1.2%-3.2%-1.2%
Op Mgn LTM-1.4%-11.3%11.4%4.2%4.6%-4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.0%-8.5%7.9%4.0%4.6%-4.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%1.3%0.3%-0.1%-0.3%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM3.2%-8.8%18.1%5.5%5.5%-5.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg1.4%-6.4%15.8%5.5%6.2%-5.5%
FCF/Rev LTM1.5%-10.0%2.0%2.0%4.9%-2.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.1%-8.3%3.5%2.3%5.7%-2.3%

Valuation

WBBBYAMZNWMTNSITBGOMedian
NameWayfair Bed Bath.Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bialgo C. 
Mkt Cap10.6-2,281.3849.43.5-430.0
P/S0.9-3.41.20.4-1.1
P/EBIT-48.6-26.827.310.7-18.7
P/E-35.5-32.339.818.2-25.3
P/CFO27.4-18.822.17.5-20.5
Total Yield-2.8%-3.1%3.3%5.5%-3.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%0.8%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.6%-1.1%2.8%9.9%-2.0%
D/E0.4-0.10.10.4-0.2
Net D/E0.2-0.00.10.3-0.1

Returns

WBBBYAMZNWMTNSITBGOMedian
NameWayfair Bed Bath.Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bialgo C. 
1M Rtn-4.7%-19.0%-8.4%2.9%-9.7%--8.4%
3M Rtn47.0%--4.2%12.2%-23.0%-4.0%
6M Rtn212.6%-24.3%14.8%-18.4%-19.5%
12M Rtn53.1%-14.8%32.4%-51.4%-23.6%
3Y Rtn157.9%-88.5%152.6%26.0%-120.6%
1M Excs Rtn-4.1%-19.4%-7.8%1.7%-9.4%--7.8%
3M Excs Rtn42.1%--10.4%7.0%-27.3%--1.7%
6M Excs Rtn205.2%--2.6%-8.3%-44.1%--5.5%
12M Excs Rtn37.5%-1.2%20.8%-63.5%-11.0%
3Y Excs Rtn85.2%-6.4%65.4%-56.9%-35.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment12,00312,21813,70814,1459,127
Total12,00312,21813,70814,1459,127


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,823,710
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-2.8%
Average Daily Volume3,321,164
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.67
Basic Shares Quantity128,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/202512.7%11.0%19.1%
5/1/20253.5%1.0%36.7%
2/20/2025-0.6%-8.0%-31.9%
11/1/2024-6.3%-7.1%12.3%
8/1/2024-8.1%-25.7%-22.6%
5/2/202416.0%35.0%17.7%
2/22/202410.8%18.3%34.7%
11/1/20234.2%8.7%31.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131313
# Negative999
Median Positive7.2%10.6%18.5%
Median Negative-6.3%-14.2%-20.8%
Max Positive16.2%35.0%38.1%
Max Negative-23.0%-25.7%-34.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Shah NirajChief Executive Officer9242025Sell85.5319,5001,667,83537,602,153Form
1Conine StevenCo-Founder9242025Sell85.5419,5041,668,37237,600,732Form
2Kumin Michael Andrew 9042025Buy74.9716011,99519,535,458Form
3Conine StevenCo-Founder8212025Sell78.525,117401,78742,318,825Form
4Shah NirajChief Executive Officer8212025Sell78.515,126402,44242,317,754Form