Tearsheet

Wayfair (W)


Market Price (11/27/2025): $112.54 | Market Cap: $14.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

Wayfair (W)


Market Price (11/27/2025): $112.54
Market Cap: $14.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 166%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 148%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 176%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.4%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 166%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 148%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 176%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

W Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



Based on the available information for Wayfair (W) during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 27, 2025, the following key points explain significant stock movement, including a reported surge of 8.58% on November 21, 2025, and a current price of $112.55 as of November 27, 2025, significantly above its 52-week low of $20.41:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Wayfair reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, 2025, which exceeded Wall Street expectations. The company achieved substantial growth in orders delivered, with total net revenue increasing by 8.1% year-over-year to $3.1 billion, and U.S. net revenue up 8.6%. Notably, Adjusted EBITDA surged by over 70% year-over-year, reaching $208 million, and the Adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.7% marked the highest level in Wayfair's history outside of the pandemic period.

2. Accelerated Revenue Growth and Profitability: The third quarter's performance highlighted an acceleration in sales and market share gains, with revenue growth (excluding Germany) at 9%, the highest since early 2021. This growth was accompanied by expanding profitability, indicating improved operational efficiency and strategic execution. Wayfair's CEO emphasized that the plan for growth is driven by Wayfair-specific factors and not reliant on a housing market recovery, with continued investment in technology and AI capabilities.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
W Return150%-16%-83%88%-28%148%21%
Peers Return22%9%-11%34%21%-4%83%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
W Win Rate58%50%17%58%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate33%38%23%45%40%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
W Max Drawdown-74%-16%-85%-6%-39%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-4%-18%-1%-4%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BBBY, BGO. See W Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-91.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1118.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-78.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven367.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven36 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-53.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven114.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven153 days120 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BBBY, BGO


In The Past

Wayfair's stock fell -91.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -91.8% loss requires a 1118.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Wayfair (W)

Better Bets than Wayfair (W)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to W. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
7.0%7.0%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-5.6%-5.6%-8.8%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.8%-3.8%-7.7%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
7.0%7.0%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-5.6%-5.6%-8.8%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.8%-3.8%-7.7%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Wayfair

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WAMZNWMTNSITBBBYBGOMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bed Bath.Bialgo C. 
Mkt Price112.55229.16109.1086.775.84-109.10
Mkt Cap14.62,437.6870.42.70.4-14.6
Rev LTM12,241670,038693,1538,2721,074-12,241
Op Inc LTM-5876,19028,988340-105-340
FCF LTM28613,48113,753333-95-333
FCF 3Y Avg8221,67714,986530-121-530
CFO LTM494121,13738,438365-72-494
CFO 3Y Avg36596,97736,707569-91-569

Growth & Margins

WAMZNWMTNSITBBBYBGOMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bed Bath.Bialgo C. 
Rev Chg LTM3.4%10.9%4.2%-6.7%-27.2%-3.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%11.3%5.7%-7.6%-20.0%--0.3%
Rev Chg Q8.1%13.3%4.8%-4.0%-17.4%-4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%3.0%1.2%-1.0%-4.8%-1.2%
Op Mgn LTM-0.5%11.4%4.2%4.1%-9.8%-4.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.9%7.9%4.0%4.6%-9.3%-4.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.0%0.3%-0.1%0.0%2.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM4.0%18.1%5.5%4.4%-6.7%-4.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.0%15.8%5.5%6.3%-6.7%-5.5%
FCF/Rev LTM2.3%2.0%2.0%4.0%-8.9%-2.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.7%3.5%2.3%5.9%-8.9%-2.3%

Valuation

WAMZNWMTNSITBBBYBGOMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bed Bath.Bialgo C. 
Mkt Cap14.62,437.6870.42.70.4-14.6
P/S1.23.61.30.30.3-1.2
P/EBIT-66.828.628.09.7-2.1-9.7
P/E-45.034.540.819.1-2.4-19.1
P/CFO29.620.122.67.5-4.9-20.1
Total Yield-2.2%2.9%3.3%5.2%-41.2%-2.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.6%1.1%2.8%10.7%--2.0%
D/E0.20.10.10.60.1-0.1
Net D/E0.20.00.10.4-0.4-0.1

Returns

WAMZNWMTNSITBBBYBGOMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bed Bath.Bialgo C. 
1M Rtn30.2%1.0%4.4%-18.9%-32.1%-1.0%
3M Rtn51.1%0.0%13.6%-32.6%-36.0%-0.0%
6M Rtn165.8%11.9%12.5%-35.2%--12.2%
12M Rtn148.5%10.2%20.6%-44.3%--15.4%
3Y Rtn251.5%145.3%122.2%-17.3%--133.7%
1M Excs Rtn6.8%1.1%6.9%-16.2%-29.3%-1.1%
3M Excs Rtn44.4%-5.8%8.7%-37.9%-42.9%--5.8%
6M Excs Rtn147.9%-3.8%-2.6%-49.6%---3.2%
12M Excs Rtn141.5%2.1%7.7%-56.7%--4.9%
3Y Excs Rtn168.6%75.4%52.5%-87.7%--63.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment12,00312,21813,70814,1459,127
Total12,00312,21813,70814,1459,127


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,130,993
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-12.8%
Average Daily Volume3,699,965
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.36
Basic Shares Quantity130,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.4%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/202523.2%19.5% 
8/4/202512.7%11.0%19.1%
5/1/20253.5%1.0%36.7%
2/20/2025-0.6%-8.0%-31.9%
11/1/2024-6.3%-7.1%12.3%
8/1/2024-8.1%-25.7%-22.6%
5/2/202416.0%35.0%17.7%
2/22/202410.8%18.3%34.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141413
# Negative889
Median Positive8.6%10.8%18.5%
Median Negative-5.6%-12.3%-21.7%
Max Positive23.2%35.0%38.1%
Max Negative-23.0%-25.7%-34.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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