Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $435.33 | Market Cap: $111.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $435.33Market Cap: $111.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 3.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -92 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 30x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 3.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -92 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.8% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 30x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
VRTX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) stock moved by -5% for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025:
1. Discontinuation of Acute Pain Drug Candidate VX-993.
On August 4, 2025, Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced the discontinuation of its investigational acute pain drug candidate, VX-993. This decision followed the failure of VX-993 to meet its primary efficacy endpoint in a Phase 2 study for treating acute pain after bunionectomy surgery. The news led to a significant market reaction, with Vertex's stock plummeting approximately 13% in after-hours trading, indicating substantial investor disappointment regarding this pipeline setback.
2. Narrowed Full-Year 2025 Revenue Guidance.
Despite reporting strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 3, 2025, which included an 11% increase in revenue and beating analysts' EPS estimates, Vertex Pharmaceuticals' stock experienced a decline of approximately 4% in after-hours trading. This negative movement was primarily attributed to the company's decision to narrow its full-year 2025 revenue guidance range from $11.85 billion-$12 billion to $11.9 billion-$12.0 billion. While the updated guidance still reflected growth, the market reacted negatively to the tighter range, suggesting concerns about potentially slowing growth momentum or a more cautious outlook than previously anticipated by investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VRTX Return | 8% | -7% | 32% | 41% | -1% | 8% | 98% |
| Peers Return | -16% | -29% | -8% | 12% | -26% | 16% | -47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VRTX Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 27% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VRTX Max Drawdown | -9% | -25% | 0% | -2% | -3% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -38% | -32% | -26% | -49% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BIIB, IONS, BMRN, ACAD, APM. See VRTX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VRTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 610 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BIIB, IONS, BMRN, ACAD, APM
In The Past
Vertex Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -26.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2021. A -26.6% loss requires a 36.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VRTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -15.4% | -15.4% | -15.4% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -33.1% | -33.1% | -33.1% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.3% | -3.3% | -3.3% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -7.0% |
| 12312022 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 21.9% | 40.9% | -1.9% |
| 10312020 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | -11.2% | -15.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -15.4% | -15.4% | -15.4% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -33.1% | -33.1% | -33.1% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.3% | -3.3% | -3.3% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -7.0% |
| 12312022 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 21.9% | 40.9% | -1.9% |
| 10312020 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | -11.2% | -15.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.7 |
| Rev LTM | 3,094 |
| Op Inc LTM | 94 |
| FCF LTM | 826 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 386 |
| CFO LTM | 914 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 489 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.7 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.2 |
| P/E | 15.5 |
| P/CFO | 11.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 23.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -0.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.0% | -1.1% | |
| 8/4/2025 | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.0% | -12.2% | -10.9% |
| 2/10/2025 | -3.1% | -1.7% | 5.4% |
| 11/4/2024 | 5.7% | 6.1% | -1.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.2% | -7.9% | -2.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.9% | 6.8% | 20.0% |
| 2/5/2024 | -3.0% | -2.4% | -4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.4% | -5.1% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 11.9% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
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