Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Market Price (10/20/2025): $417.0 | Market Cap: $107.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Market Price (10/20/2025): $417.0Market Cap: $107.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -199 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 29x |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43% |
Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -199 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 29x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
VRTX Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
VRTX Return | 8% | -7% | 32% | 41% | -1% | 4% | 90% |
Peers Return | 1% | -26% | 6% | 29% | -36% | 24% | -18% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
VRTX Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 78% | |
Peers Win Rate | 48% | 46% | 50% | 50% | 29% | 50% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
VRTX Max Drawdown | -9% | -25% | 0% | -2% | -3% | -9% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -38% | -22% | -14% | -42% | -24% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BIIB, BMRN, IONS, ACAD, ACSB. See VRTX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | VRTX | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -26.6% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 36.3% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -31.7% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -21.2% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -64.0% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 178.0% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 610 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -26.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2021. A -26.6% loss requires a 36.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VRTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADMA | ADMA Biologics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -4.6% |
09302025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.8% |
09262025 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.1% |
09192025 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.2% | 11.2% | -4.3% |
09052025 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.4% | -4.4% | -8.0% |
12312022 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 21.9% | 40.9% | -1.9% |
10312020 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | -11.2% | -15.0% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADMA | ADMA Biologics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -4.6% |
09302025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.8% |
09262025 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.1% |
09192025 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.2% | 11.2% | -4.3% |
09052025 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.4% | -4.4% | -8.0% |
12312022 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 21.9% | 40.9% | -1.9% |
10312020 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | -11.2% | -15.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 73.09 |
Mkt Cap | 11.6 |
Rev LTM | 3,064 |
Op Inc LTM | 90 |
FCF LTM | 691 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 315 |
CFO LTM | 767 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 419 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 10.5% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Rev Chg Q | 10.1% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
Op Mgn LTM | 8.9% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 25.0% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 22.6% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 11.6 |
P/S | 3.4 |
P/EBIT | 12.0 |
P/E | 15.6 |
P/CFO | 13.3 |
Total Yield | 6.3% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 0.4% |
3M Rtn | -7.0% |
6M Rtn | 20.6% |
12M Rtn | -13.7% |
3Y Rtn | 33.2% |
1M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
3M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
6M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
12M Excs Rtn | -28.5% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -52.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/4/2025 | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
5/5/2025 | -10.0% | -12.2% | -10.9% |
2/10/2025 | -3.1% | -1.7% | 5.4% |
11/4/2024 | 5.7% | 6.1% | -1.9% |
8/1/2024 | -2.2% | -7.9% | -2.0% |
5/6/2024 | 1.9% | 6.8% | 20.0% |
2/5/2024 | -3.0% | -2.4% | -4.0% |
11/6/2023 | -1.9% | -1.8% | -8.4% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
# Negative | 12 | 13 | 12 |
Median Positive | 2.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% |
Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.4% | -5.1% |
Max Positive | 9.0% | 11.9% | 20.0% |
Max Negative | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11032021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Bhatia Sangeeta N. | 8292025 | Sell | 386.69 | 266 | 102,860 | 1,765,240 | Form | |
1 | Kewalramani Reshma | CEO & President | 8072025 | Buy | 389.08 | 4,290 | 1,669,153 | 42,899,183 | Form |
2 | SACHS BRUCE I | 8072025 | Buy | 389.36 | 1,634 | 636,214 | 16,210,614 | Form | |
3 | ALTSHULER DAVID | EVP, Chief Scientific Officer | 5192025 | Sell | 424.69 | 52 | 22,084 | 9,887,208 | Form |
4 | ALTSHULER DAVID | EVP, Chief Scientific Officer | 3172025 | Sell | 510.00 | 3,231 | 1,647,810 | 11,873,310 | Form |
Industry Resources
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