Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Market Price (11/25/2025): $428.13 | Market Cap: $109.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Market Price (11/25/2025): $428.13Market Cap: $109.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 3.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -92 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 29x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 3.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -92 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.8% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 29x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VRTX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Experimental Pain Drug VX-993 Failed to Meet Primary Endpoint.
On August 5, 2025, Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced that its experimental non-opioid painkiller, VX-993, did not achieve a statistically significant improvement on its primary endpoint in a mid-stage clinical trial for acute pain following bunionectomy surgery. This setback led Vertex to discontinue the development of VX-993 as a standalone treatment for acute pain. The news prompted a significant sell-off, with Vertex shares falling by as much as 18% on the day, marking its largest drop in five years.
2. Regulatory Concerns for Suzertrigine (JOURNAVX) in Broader Pain Indications.
In conjunction with the VX-993 trial results on August 5, 2025, Vertex Pharmaceuticals also faced regulatory hurdles for another pain medication, suzetrigine (JOURNAVX). U.S. regulators indicated that they did not see a clear path forward for a broad label for suzetrigine in peripheral neuropathic pain. While JOURNAVX had received FDA approval for acute pain in January 2025, this regulatory feedback limited the drug's potential for wider applications beyond its initial approval, contributing to investor concerns regarding the company's efforts to diversify its pipeline beyond cystic fibrosis.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VRTX Return | 8% | -7% | 32% | 41% | -1% | 5% | 94% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -26% | 6% | 29% | -36% | 39% | -9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VRTX Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 46% | 50% | 50% | 29% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VRTX Max Drawdown | -9% | -25% | 0% | -2% | -3% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -38% | -22% | -14% | -42% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BIIB, IONS, BMRN, ACAD, ACSB. See VRTX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VRTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 610 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BIIB, IONS, BMRN, ACAD, ACSB
In The Past
Vertex Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -26.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2021. A -26.6% loss requires a 36.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VRTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -17.8% | -17.8% | -22.3% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -33.5% | -33.5% | -38.7% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -7.0% |
| 12312022 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 21.9% | 40.9% | -1.9% |
| 10312020 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | -11.2% | -15.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -17.8% | -17.8% | -22.3% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -33.5% | -33.5% | -38.7% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -7.0% |
| 12312022 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 21.9% | 40.9% | -1.9% |
| 10312020 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | -11.2% | -15.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vertex Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 78.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.5 |
| Rev LTM | 3,094 |
| Op Inc LTM | 94 |
| FCF LTM | 826 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 386 |
| CFO LTM | 914 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 489 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.5 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 16.1 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.0% | -1.1% | |
| 8/4/2025 | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.0% | -12.2% | -10.9% |
| 2/10/2025 | -3.1% | -1.7% | 5.4% |
| 11/4/2024 | 5.7% | 6.1% | -1.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.2% | -7.9% | -2.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.9% | 6.8% | 20.0% |
| 2/5/2024 | -3.0% | -2.4% | -4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.4% | -5.1% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 11.9% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
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