United Parcel Service (UPS)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $100.58 | Market Cap: $85.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
United Parcel Service (UPS)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $100.58Market Cap: $85.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 6.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 5.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil | Key risksUPS key risks include [1] potential operational disruptions from ongoing labor disputes with the Teamsters union and [2] a significant revenue impact from its strategic decision to drastically reduce volume from its former largest customer, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 6.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7% |
| Key risksUPS key risks include [1] potential operational disruptions from ongoing labor disputes with the Teamsters union and [2] a significant revenue impact from its strategic decision to drastically reduce volume from its former largest customer, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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The United Parcel Service (UPS) stock experienced an approximate 17% increase during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 26, 2025, rising from a closing price of $85.95 in August 2025 to $100.54 by late December 2025. This movement was influenced by several key factors.
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat: On October 28, 2025, UPS announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, with consolidated revenues reaching $21.4 billion and non-GAAP adjusted diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.74, significantly exceeding the forecasted $1.30. This strong performance led to a 12.08% surge in UPS shares during pre-market trading.
2. Strategic Transformation and Cost Management Initiatives: UPS continued to execute a major strategic shift aimed at enhancing long-term value. The company reported achieving $2.2 billion in cost savings year-to-date and remained on track to meet its full-year expense reduction target of approximately $3.5 billion in 2025. This included significant operational changes such as eliminating about 48,000 jobs and closing 93 facilities.
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1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat: On October 28, 2025, UPS announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, with consolidated revenues reaching $21.4 billion and non-GAAP adjusted diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.74, significantly exceeding the forecasted $1.30. This strong performance led to a 12.08% surge in UPS shares during pre-market trading.
2. Strategic Transformation and Cost Management Initiatives: UPS continued to execute a major strategic shift aimed at enhancing long-term value. The company reported achieving $2.2 billion in cost savings year-to-date and remained on track to meet its full-year expense reduction target of approximately $3.5 billion in 2025. This included significant operational changes such as eliminating about 48,000 jobs and closing 93 facilities.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.2% change in UPS stock from 9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 27.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9282025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 82.29 | 100.54 | 22.18% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90313.00 | 89483.00 | -0.92% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.34% | 6.15% | -3.09% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.16 | 15.50 | 27.39% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 847.00 | 848.00 | -0.12% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.18% |
Market Drivers
9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | 22.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 30.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.0% | 29.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.0% change in UPS stock from 6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 9.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6292025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 97.61 | 100.54 | 3.00% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90910.00 | 89483.00 | -1.57% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.44% | 6.15% | -4.55% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.17 | 15.50 | 9.37% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 850.00 | 848.00 | 0.24% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.00% |
Market Drivers
6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | 3.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 30.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.5% | 37.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.8% change in UPS stock from 12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a -13.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12282024 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.00 | 100.54 | -14.80% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90686.00 | 89483.00 | -1.33% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.25% | 6.15% | -1.59% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.81 | 15.50 | -12.97% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 855.00 | 848.00 | 0.82% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.80% |
Market Drivers
12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | -14.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.2% | 49.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -33.4% change in UPS stock from 12/29/2022 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a -44.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12292022 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 150.88 | 100.54 | -33.36% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 101076.00 | 89483.00 | -11.47% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.07% | 6.15% | -44.45% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.73 | 15.50 | 32.07% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 870.00 | 848.00 | 2.53% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -33.41% |
Market Drivers
12/29/2023 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | -28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 39.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 41.4% | 44.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UPS Return | 49% | 30% | -15% | -6% | -16% | -15% | 10% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UPS Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UPS Max Drawdown | -26% | -8% | -24% | -20% | -20% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL. See UPS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UPS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 584 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
United Parcel Service's stock fell -41.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -41.9% loss requires a 72.2% gain to breakeven.
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United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment offers guaranteed time-definite express options. The company also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and mail and consulting services in approximately 200 countries and territories. In addition, it offers truckload brokerage services; supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry; shipping, visibility, and billing technologies; and financial and insurance services. The company operates a fleet of approximately 121,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; and owns 59,000 containers that are used to transport cargo in its aircraft. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for United Parcel Service (UPS):
- Essentially, FedEx's primary global competitor in package delivery and logistics.
- Imagine Amazon's vast shipping network, but as a century-old, independent company serving all businesses and consumers globally.
- The private, global equivalent of the US Postal Service, handling everything from small packages to large freight and complex logistics for businesses worldwide.
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- Global Package Delivery: Provides domestic and international shipping services for small to medium-sized packages via ground, air, and ocean networks.
- Freight Forwarding: Offers transportation solutions for larger, heavier shipments, including less-than-truckload (LTL), full truckload (FTL), air freight, and ocean freight.
- Contract Logistics & Supply Chain Management: Delivers comprehensive solutions such as warehousing, distribution, fulfillment, returns management, and supply chain consulting.
- Customs Brokerage: Facilitates international trade by managing customs clearance, duties, and regulatory compliance for shipments across borders.
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United Parcel Service (UPS) primarily sells its services to other companies and businesses, though it also serves individual consumers. Given the vast and diversified nature of UPS's customer base, no single customer typically accounts for a significant portion (e.g., 10% or more) of its total revenue. UPS serves millions of businesses globally, ranging from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMBs) to large multinational corporations. However, based on the types of businesses that generate high shipping volumes and rely heavily on logistics providers, the following categories represent major users of UPS's services, and within those categories, specific companies would be significant customers:
- E-commerce and Online Retailers: Companies operating large online marketplaces or direct-to-consumer businesses generate immense parcel volumes. While many large players like Amazon have developed their own logistics capabilities, they, along with countless other online retailers, still utilize UPS for various aspects of their shipping, especially for last-mile delivery, specialized services, or during peak demand.
- Illustrative Customer Example: eBay Inc. (Symbol: EBAY) - While individual sellers on eBay are the direct customers, eBay's platform facilitates millions of transactions that rely on parcel carriers like UPS.
- Illustrative Customer Example: Wayfair Inc. (Symbol: W) - A major online retailer of home goods that ships a high volume of items, often requiring specialized handling.
- Large Retailers with Omnichannel Presence: Traditional retailers with extensive physical footprints and growing e-commerce operations require sophisticated logistics for inventory movement between distribution centers, stores, and direct customer deliveries.
- Illustrative Customer Example: Walmart Inc. (Symbol: WMT) - One of the world's largest retailers with vast supply chain and delivery needs for both its stores and e-commerce platform.
- Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Companies: This sector requires highly reliable, often temperature-controlled, and time-sensitive delivery services for medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and equipment.
- Illustrative Customer Example: McKesson Corporation (Symbol: MCK) - A leading distributor of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, requiring extensive and precise logistics.
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- Boeing (BA)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
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Carol B. Tomé Chief Executive Officer
Carol B. Tomé has served as the Chief Executive Officer of UPS since 2020, becoming the first outsider to lead the company. Prior to joining UPS, she spent 25 years at The Home Depot Inc., serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from 2001 to 2019. During her tenure at The Home Depot, she was instrumental in increasing shareholder value by 450% and expanding the number of stores from 400 to 2,200. Her career also includes roles as Vice President and Treasurer of Riverwood International Corporation, Director of Banking for Johns-Manville Corporation, and a commercial lender at United Bank of Denver (now Wells Fargo). She also serves as a Director at Verizon Communications.
Brian Dykes Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Brian Dykes was appointed Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of UPS in July 2024. Before this role, he served as Senior Vice President, Global Finance and Planning at UPS. Mr. Dykes also previously served on the board of Ware2Go.
Norman M. Brothers, Jr. Executive Vice President, Secretary, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer
Norman M. Brothers, Jr. has been the Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, Executive Vice President, and Secretary of UPS since 2020. His previous roles at the company include Vice President and Deputy General Counsel. Earlier in his career, he served as a military prosecutor in the Judge Advocate General's Corps while on active duty as a captain in the U.S. Army.
Kate M. Gutmann Executive Vice President, President International - Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions
Kate M. Gutmann has held the position of Executive Vice President and President International - Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions at UPS since 2022. Her prior roles within UPS include Executive Vice President of Global Healthcare and Chief Sales and Solutions Officer, and Senior Vice President of UPS Store and UPS Capital. She also served as President of Worldwide Sales and Vice President of Marketing for the UPS Europe Region.
Nando Cesarone Executive Vice President & President U.S.
Nando Cesarone serves as the Executive Vice President and President U.S. for UPS.
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The key risks to United Parcel Service (UPS) include:
- Labor Relations and Costs: UPS faces significant risks related to its labor relations, particularly with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union. Ongoing disputes regarding new contracts, wage increases, and working conditions, such as the mandate for air conditioning in delivery vehicles, pose a continuous threat. These challenges can lead to increased operating costs and potential disruptions, including strikes or slowdowns, which could severely impact operations, customer satisfaction, and the company's reputation. For instance, recent reports highlight tensions over a proposed Driver Voluntary Severance Plan, which the Teamsters argue violates the 2023 National Master Agreement. Non-compliance with contractual obligations, such as the delayed rollout of air-conditioned vehicles, also creates potential for further labor tensions and legal action.
- Volume Decline from Major Customers and General Demand Slowdown: UPS is actively reducing its reliance on Amazon, its former largest customer, with plans to cut Amazon-related volume by over 50% by mid-2026. This strategic shift, while aiming for higher-margin business, presents a short-term revenue risk. This reduction coincides with a broader trend of stagnant parcel shipment demand, a slowdown in U.S. consumer sentiment, and weakening global manufacturing activity, all of which negatively impact UPS's revenue and profitability. The company's revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025 has already missed analyst expectations, largely attributed to this significant drop in Amazon business.
- Intense Competition and Industry Disruption: UPS operates in a highly competitive logistics industry, facing pressure from traditional rivals such as FedEx and DHL, as well as national postal services like USPS. The competitive landscape is further complicated by disruptive players, including last-mile technology firms and large e-commerce companies that are developing their own in-house logistics capabilities. This intense competition can lead to price wars, reduced market share, and continuous pressure on UPS to innovate, improve efficiency, and invest in new technologies like automation, AI routing, electric vehicles, and drone delivery to meet evolving customer demands for faster and more flexible deliveries.
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A clear emerging threat to United Parcel Service (UPS) is the continued and expanding insourcing of logistics and last-mile delivery by major customers, most notably Amazon (AMZN). Amazon has significantly scaled its own logistics network, Amazon Logistics, to handle a substantial portion of its own package volume, directly reducing the volume previously handled by carriers like UPS. Furthermore, Amazon has indicated an expansion of its logistics services to third-party merchants through initiatives like "Buy with Prime" fulfillment, signaling an intent to compete directly in the broader third-party logistics market, traditionally a core business for UPS. This trend represents a major customer becoming a direct competitor, leveraging vast resources and a global fulfillment infrastructure built on deep data insights and operational efficiency.
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United Parcel Service (UPS) offers a diverse portfolio of services, primarily encompassing package delivery, e-commerce logistics, freight forwarding, and contract logistics/supply chain management solutions. The addressable markets for these key services are substantial and global in scope.
- Package Delivery (Courier, Express, and Parcel - CEP): The global parcel delivery market size was valued at approximately USD 568.22 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 1,126.44 billion by 2034.
- E-commerce Logistics: The global e-commerce logistics market size was valued at USD 500.76 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 3,721.53 billion by 2034.
- Freight Forwarding: The global freight forwarding market size is estimated at USD 572.25 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 740.85 billion by 2030.
- Contract Logistics: The global contract logistics market size is estimated at USD 488.99 billion in 2025 and is predicted to reach around USD 931.24 billion by 2034.
- Supply Chain Management Solutions: The global supply chain management (SCM) market size is projected to grow from USD 38.51 billion in 2025 to USD 58.42 billion by 2030.
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United Parcel Service (UPS) Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth (Next 2-3 Years)
- Revenue Per Piece (RPP) Growth and Pricing Discipline: UPS anticipates continued revenue growth through disciplined pricing strategies and an improved customer mix. The company has seen increases in U.S. revenue per piece, driven by base rate improvements and a focus on favorable customer segments. This strategy prioritizes profitability over package volume.
- Expansion in High-Margin Segments (Healthcare and SMBs): A key driver for future revenue growth is UPS's strategic focus on expanding its presence in higher-margin markets, particularly healthcare logistics and small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs). UPS aims to grow its U.S. SMB penetration, which made up 28.9% of its total U.S. volume in 2024. Additionally, the acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group in late 2025 further accelerates its expansion in complex healthcare logistics.
- Network Transformation and Efficiency Initiatives: UPS is undertaking a significant "efficiency reimagined" initiative, involving a substantial network reconfiguration and facility closures. These multi-year initiatives are designed to drive approximately $1.0 billion in savings through an end-to-end process redesign, ultimately contributing to a more profitable and agile business model and supporting revenue quality by shedding unprofitable volume. The company aims to achieve a 12% U.S. operating margin by the end of 2026.
- Growth in International Package Delivery: The international segment is expected to contribute to revenue growth. In the fourth quarter of 2024, international revenue increased by 6.9%, with all regions experiencing year-over-year growth, driven by strong market demand, particularly out of Asia for air and ocean forwarding. UPS's "1 + 2 plan" for 2024 and beyond emphasizes operating margin growth in subsequent years, aiming for a consolidated operating margin of 13% by 2026, which includes leveraging its integrated network and focusing on high-margin international package delivery.
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Share Repurchases
- UPS completed $3.5 billion in share buybacks in 2022.
- In 2023, the company repurchased $2.25 billion in shares, including 12.3 million shares for $2.2 billion under the 2023 Authorization.
- For 2025, UPS anticipates share repurchases of approximately $1.0 billion. The Board of Directors authorized a new $5.0 billion share repurchase program in January 2023, with $2.8 billion remaining available as of June 30, 2024.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, UPS acquired Delivery Solutions, a digital platform for optimizing customer deliveries, and Bomi Group, to expand healthcare logistics internationally and enhance cold chain capabilities. The aggregate purchase price for acquisitions in 2022 was approximately $755 million.
- Aggregate acquisitions in 2023 totaled approximately $1.3 billion, primarily for various business acquisitions and the expansion of The UPS Store franchise development areas.
- During 2024, the aggregate purchase price for acquisitions was $71 million, mainly for franchise development areas for The UPS Store, and the company completed the divestiture of Coyote for net proceeds of $1.002 billion.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $4.769 billion in 2022 and $5.158 billion in 2023.
- In 2024, capital expenditures were $3.909 billion, representing a decrease from the prior year due to reduced spending on buildings, facilities, plant equipment, vehicles, and technology.
- UPS plans approximately $3.5 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, focusing on a network reconfiguration and "Efficiency Reimagined" initiatives to optimize and automate its integrated network.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to UPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.3% | 18.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.5% | 5.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.7% | 5.7% | -0.4% |
| 10312023 | UPS | United Parcel Service | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | -0.8% | -9.7% |
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Peer Comparisons for United Parcel Service
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 185.1 |
| Rev LTM | 61,549 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,881 |
| FCF LTM | 8,125 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,262 |
| CFO LTM | 10,973 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,556 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 185.1 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 33.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $100.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 85.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/10/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $94.53 | $92.65 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 6.4% | 8.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.6% | 32.7% |
| Downside Capture | 37.10 | 92.83 |
| Upside Capture | 125.93 | 62.45 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 31.7% | 46.1% |
UPS Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.53 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.94 | 0.78 | 0.84 |
| Up Beta | -0.71 | -0.85 | -0.43 | 0.26 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 0.35 | 1.20 | 1.12 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Up Capture | 107% | 161% | 110% | 98% | 42% | 41% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 24 | 34 | 64 | 120 | 369 |
| Down Capture | 75% | 63% | 78% | 138% | 97% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 28 | 61 | 127 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of UPS With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -14.5% | 19.3% | 17.8% | 72.1% | 8.6% | 4.4% | -8.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 32.4% | 18.8% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.45 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 49.2% | 46.2% | -11.0% | 9.0% | 40.2% | 13.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of UPS With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -6.5% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 30.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 28.0% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.6% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.22 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 55.3% | 51.4% | 2.0% | 13.6% | 44.7% | 11.3% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of UPS With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 3.9% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 26.9% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.18 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 58.3% | 56.8% | -2.2% | 17.8% | 44.6% | 8.3% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | -10.6% | -16.3% | -12.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | -0.4% | -1.6% | 1.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -14.1% | -16.4% | -9.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | 5.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| 7/23/2024 | -12.1% | -11.4% | -10.1% |
| 4/23/2024 | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| 1/30/2024 | -8.2% | -12.0% | -5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -8.4% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.4% | 20.7% | 30.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -16.4% | -21.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q (06/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q (03/31/2024) |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K (12/31/2023) |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q (09/30/2023) |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q (06/30/2023) |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q (03/31/2023) |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K (12/31/2022) |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q (09/30/2022) |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q (06/30/2022) |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q (03/31/2022) |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K (12/31/2021) |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Shi Christiana Smith | 8262025 | Buy | 88.17 | 500 | 44,084 | 44,084 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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