Tearsheet

United Parcel Service (UPS)


Market Price (11/26/2025): $94.59 | Market Cap: $80.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

United Parcel Service (UPS)


Market Price (11/26/2025): $94.59
Market Cap: $80.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 6.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.4%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 6.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.4%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UPS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The United Parcel Service (UPS) stock experienced significant movements between July 31, 2025, and November 26, 2025, influenced by various operational, economic, and strategic factors. While a specific 13.7% increase or decrease for the entire period cannot be isolated as a single event across all provided data, several key points highlight significant changes and drivers within this timeframe. 1. **Declining Demand and Sales Volumes**: UPS faced a challenging environment with slipping demand and declining sales volumes, averaging 4.2% year-on-year declines in units sold over the last two years as of April 2025. This underwhelming performance suggested increasing competition or market saturation, potentially leading to lower prices or increased investment in product improvements, which could hinder near-term profitability. 2. **Stalled EPS Growth and Declining ROIC**: The company's earnings per share (EPS) growth remained flat over the five years leading up to April 2025, despite a 4.2% annualized revenue growth, indicating a decrease in profitability on a per-share basis. Additionally, UPS's return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly decreased, suggesting fewer profitable growth opportunities and potentially moving the stock price negatively. 3. **Network Optimization and Revenue Quality Focus**: UPS implemented a comprehensive strategy involving the most extensive network reconfiguration in its history, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency through automation and facility consolidation. The company also shifted its focus away from low-margin Amazon volume towards higher-value business-to-business, healthcare, and international shipments to drive earnings growth and improve profitability. 4. **Impact of Tariffs and Geopolitical Uncertainty**: The negative impact of President Trump's tariffs significantly hurt UPS's business, with the average daily volume in the profitable China-to-U.S. lane decreasing by 34.8% in May and June 2025. Geopolitical uncertainty and higher inflation also contributed to revenue weakness and declining package volumes due to reduced consumer sentiment and global manufacturing activity. 5. **Job Reductions and Cost-Saving Initiatives**: UPS quietly cut nearly 40,000 jobs across the country in 2025, including operational and management positions. The company expected to save approximately $3.5 billion by the end of 2025 through these reductions and other efficiency initiatives, aiming for a more responsive and cost-effective operating model.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UPS Return49%30%-15%-6%-16%-20%3%
Peers Return48%21%-29%66%18%6%163%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPS Win Rate67%58%67%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%58%35%65%52%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPS Max Drawdown-26%-8%-24%-20%-20%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-8%-41%-5%-10%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX. See UPS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/25/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUPSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven125 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven584 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX


In The Past

United Parcel Service's stock fell -41.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -41.9% loss requires a 72.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About United Parcel Service (UPS)

Better Bets than United Parcel Service (UPS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.0%-8.0%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.1%-4.1%-12.2%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.0%-4.0%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.4%-4.4%-10.8%
UPS_10312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312023UPSUnited Parcel ServiceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%-0.8%-9.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.0%-8.0%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.1%-4.1%-12.2%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.0%-4.0%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.4%-4.4%-10.8%
UPS_10312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312023UPSUnited Parcel ServiceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%-0.8%-9.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for United Parcel Service

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
Mkt Price94.54229.67273.87147.58139.9945.44143.79
Mkt Cap80.22,443.064.620.116.57.442.4
Rev LTM89,483670,03888,59111,2738,0677,47849,932
Op Inc LTM8,21876,1906,0841,1167063213,600
FCF LTM4,39613,4813,654810232-622,232
FCF 3Y Avg4,77121,6773,1871,104-206-22,146
CFO LTM8,463121,1377,5658629498184,257
CFO 3Y Avg9,61396,9778,1021,1528089474,627

Growth & Margins

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.3%10.9%1.1%23.7%-0.3%-0.0%0.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.9%11.3%-2.2%-12.5%38.4%0.1%-1.0%
Rev Chg Q-3.7%13.3%3.1%8.7%2.8%2.7%3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.9%3.0%0.8%1.9%0.7%0.7%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM9.2%11.4%6.9%9.9%8.8%4.3%9.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.5%7.9%6.7%10.1%8.0%4.8%7.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM9.5%18.1%8.5%7.6%11.8%10.9%10.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.5%15.8%9.2%10.1%10.1%13.1%10.3%
FCF/Rev LTM4.9%2.0%4.1%7.2%2.9%-0.8%3.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%3.5%3.6%9.7%-2.6%-0.0%3.6%

Valuation

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
Mkt Cap80.22,443.064.620.116.57.442.4
P/S0.93.60.71.82.01.01.4
P/EBIT10.128.710.218.024.821.019.5
P/E14.634.615.723.649.851.829.1
P/CFO9.520.28.523.317.49.013.4
Total Yield13.6%2.9%8.5%5.3%2.0%3.1%4.2%
Dividend Yield6.7%0.0%2.1%1.0%0.0%1.2%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.7%1.1%5.2%6.4%-1.8%-0.1%2.9%
D/E0.40.10.60.00.20.40.3
Net D/E0.30.00.5-0.00.20.40.3

Returns

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
1M Rtn10.3%2.4%13.6%25.3%11.3%0.2%10.8%
3M Rtn10.0%0.4%19.3%21.4%2.7%2.6%6.3%
6M Rtn0.5%11.5%26.2%30.0%17.8%4.5%14.7%
12M Rtn-26.5%14.0%-8.1%22.1%-7.7%-21.5%-7.9%
3Y Rtn-39.7%145.9%65.6%35.8%271.8%-13.7%50.7%
1M Excs Rtn9.4%2.8%12.3%24.9%13.4%2.3%10.9%
3M Excs Rtn5.1%-4.1%14.3%16.3%1.6%-1.2%3.3%
6M Excs Rtn-13.6%-2.7%12.8%17.6%3.4%-10.3%0.4%
12M Excs Rtn-36.8%2.0%-18.8%10.1%-20.2%-31.7%-19.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-109.1%73.3%-3.2%-34.9%206.2%-84.5%-19.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment90,958    
International Package 19,69819,54115,94514,220
Supply Chain Solutions 16,43117,42915,18413,381
United States (U.S.) Domestic Package 64,20960,31753,49946,493
Total90,958100,33897,28784,62874,094


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,418,756
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.8%
Average Daily Volume6,982,771
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.78
Basic Shares Quantity848,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/20258.0%5.5% 
7/29/2025-10.6%-16.3%-12.3%
4/29/2025-0.4%-1.6%1.3%
1/30/2025-14.1%-16.4%-9.8%
10/24/20245.3%1.8%1.2%
7/23/2024-12.1%-11.4%-10.1%
4/23/20242.4%2.2%1.2%
1/30/2024-8.2%-12.0%-5.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91113
# Negative151311
Median Positive6.9%4.6%4.4%
Median Negative-6.7%-8.4%-9.9%
Max Positive14.4%20.7%30.4%
Max Negative-14.1%-16.4%-21.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Shi Christiana Smith 8262025Buy88.1750044,08444,084Form
1Cesarone NandoPresident, US Operations11262024Sell137.1010,0001,371,0225,041,178Form
2Brothers Norman M. JrChief Legal & Compliance Off11262024Sell138.577,3251,015,009 Form