Tearsheet

United Parcel Service (UPS)


Market Price (6/26/2026): $108.55 | Market Cap: $92.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

United Parcel Service (UPS)


Market Price (6/26/2026): $108.55
Market Cap: $92.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 5.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 8.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.5 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%

Key risks
UPS key risks include [1] potential operational disruptions from ongoing labor disputes with the Teamsters union and [2] a significant revenue impact from its strategic decision to drastically reduce volume from its former largest customer, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 5.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 8.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.5 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%
7 Key risks
UPS key risks include [1] potential operational disruptions from ongoing labor disputes with the Teamsters union and [2] a significant revenue impact from its strategic decision to drastically reduce volume from its former largest customer, Show more.

UPS in ETFs

Weight = UPS's share of each fund

SPY0.12%
VOO0.12%
IVV0.12%
VTI0.11%
ITOT0.11%
IWB0.11%
RSP0.19%
VTV0.30%
+29 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 6/25/2026

United Parcel Service (UPS) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strategic Restructuring and Associated Costs: United Parcel Service is implementing a "Better, Not Bigger" strategy, involving a deliberate reduction of lower-margin business, notably from Amazon, to focus on higher-yielding segments. This transformation has led to significant restructuring expenses and facility closures. In fiscal Q1 2026, UPS incurred $42 million in after-tax transformation charges. The company anticipates total transformation-related costs of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion for the full year 2026, with approximately $1.2 billion allocated to the Driver Choice Program. Furthermore, UPS closed 23 facilities in fiscal Q1 2026 and plans to close an additional 27 facilities during 2026.

2. Decline in Package Volume: As a direct consequence of the strategic shift away from lower-margin shipments and general market softness, UPS experienced a notable decrease in package volume. U.S. domestic package volume declined by 8% in fiscal Q1 2026. The company specifically reduced Amazon's volume by 500,000 pieces per day during fiscal Q1 2026, aiming to shed 2 million pieces per day by mid-year 2026. This resulted in Amazon's contribution to UPS's revenue decreasing from over 13% to 8.8% in fiscal Q1 2026. Despite an increase in revenue per piece (6.5% for U.S. Domestic and 10.7% for International), the overall volume decline contributed to a 1.6% year-over-year decrease in consolidated revenues, reaching $21.2 billion in fiscal Q1 2026.

Show more
Updated on 6/25/2026

United Parcel Service (UPS) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strategic Restructuring and Associated Costs: United Parcel Service is implementing a "Better, Not Bigger" strategy, involving a deliberate reduction of lower-margin business, notably from Amazon, to focus on higher-yielding segments. This transformation has led to significant restructuring expenses and facility closures. In fiscal Q1 2026, UPS incurred $42 million in after-tax transformation charges. The company anticipates total transformation-related costs of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion for the full year 2026, with approximately $1.2 billion allocated to the Driver Choice Program. Furthermore, UPS closed 23 facilities in fiscal Q1 2026 and plans to close an additional 27 facilities during 2026.

2. Decline in Package Volume: As a direct consequence of the strategic shift away from lower-margin shipments and general market softness, UPS experienced a notable decrease in package volume. U.S. domestic package volume declined by 8% in fiscal Q1 2026. The company specifically reduced Amazon's volume by 500,000 pieces per day during fiscal Q1 2026, aiming to shed 2 million pieces per day by mid-year 2026. This resulted in Amazon's contribution to UPS's revenue decreasing from over 13% to 8.8% in fiscal Q1 2026. Despite an increase in revenue per piece (6.5% for U.S. Domestic and 10.7% for International), the overall volume decline contributed to a 1.6% year-over-year decrease in consolidated revenues, reaching $21.2 billion in fiscal Q1 2026.

3. Compressed Profitability: The combination of restructuring costs and volume declines significantly impacted UPS's profitability during the period. In fiscal Q1 2026, the company's net income fell 27.2% year-over-year to $864 million, compared to $1.19 billion in Q1 2025. Consolidated operating profit also decreased by 23.9% to $1.27 billion, and the consolidated operating margin compressed from 7.7% in fiscal Q1 2025 to 6.0% in fiscal Q1 2026.

4. Macroeconomic Headwinds: Broader economic factors exerted additional pressure on the stock. Management highlighted higher fuel costs and geopolitical risks, particularly those related to tensions in the Middle East, as potential inhibitors of demand and stressors on operating margins. Additionally, softening U.S. consumer confidence was identified as a risk that could curtail demand-driven freight growth. Muted pre-Lunar New Year import growth also suggested balanced inventories, limiting the potential for a significant demand surge in the logistics sector.

5. Insider Selling Activity: There was notable insider selling activity that may have contributed to negative sentiment. Over the 90 days leading up to the current date, a net sell-off of UPS stock by insiders totaled over $6 million, including proposed sales exceeding $6 million by former director Kevin Maxwell Warsh.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -4.1% change in UPS stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820266252026Change
Stock Price ($)114.04109.31-4.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)88,66188,317-0.4%
Net Income Margin (%)6.3%5.9%-5.4%
P/E Multiple17.417.71.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)849850-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution-4.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 6/25/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPS  
Market (SPY)7.3%48.8%
Sector (XLI)4.2%58.6%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 6/25/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPS17.7% 
Market (SPY)8.1%39.8%
Sector (XLI)20.5%53.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 19.8% change in UPS stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120256252026Change
Stock Price ($)91.26109.3119.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)90,91088,317-2.9%
Net Income Margin (%)6.4%5.9%-7.7%
P/E Multiple13.217.733.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8508500.0%
Cumulative Contribution19.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2025 to 6/25/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPS19.8% 
Market (SPY)26.0%36.9%
Sector (XLI) 47.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -22.8% change in UPS stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)53120236252026Change
Stock Price ($)141.62109.31-22.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)98,88588,317-10.7%
Net Income Margin (%)10.9%5.9%-45.5%
P/E Multiple11.317.756.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8628501.4%
Cumulative Contribution-22.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2023 to 6/25/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPS-22.8% 
Market (SPY)82.6%41.3%
Sector (XLI)98.8%48.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
UPS Return30%-15%-6%-16%-16%10%-19%
Peers Return39%-20%26%-0%21%27%114%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%7%96%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPS Win Rate58%67%50%33%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate62%42%58%52%67%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPS Max Drawdown-17%-30%-30%-22%-36%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-34%-19%-22%-28%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FDX, ODFL, CHRW, EXPD, JBHT. See UPS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/25/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventUPSS&P 500
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-18.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven85 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-13.2%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven55 days62 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-16.4%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.6%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven119 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-16.6%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.9%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven63 days125 days

Compare to FDX, ODFL, CHRW, EXPD, JBHT

In The Past

United Parcel Service's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventUPSS&P 500
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven213 days105 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-45.6%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven83.8%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven402 days1085 days

Compare to FDX, ODFL, CHRW, EXPD, JBHT

In The Past

United Parcel Service's stock fell -9.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 10.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About United Parcel Service (UPS)

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery. The company primarily operates through two core segments: U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic segment provides time-definite delivery services for letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight across the United States, utilizing an extensive network of air and ground transportation.

The International Package segment extends UPS's reach worldwide, offering guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services to regions including Europe, Asia Pacific, Canada, Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa, spanning approximately 200 countries and territories. This global network is crucial for businesses and individuals requiring reliable cross-border shipping.

Beyond traditional package delivery, UPS offers a comprehensive suite of supply chain and specialized services. These include international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution, post-sales support, and consulting services. The company also provides truckload brokerage, advanced supply chain solutions tailored for the healthcare and life sciences sectors, and various shipping, visibility, and billing technologies, catering to a diverse range of individual and business customers globally.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a few analogies for United Parcel Service (UPS):

  • Like FedEx.
  • The private, global equivalent of the U.S. Postal Service.
  • Imagine the Amazon delivery system, but for any company or individual worldwide.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Package Delivery Services: Provides time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services, both domestically and internationally.
  • Freight Forwarding: Offers international air and ocean freight forwarding services.
  • Customs Brokerage: Assists clients with customs clearance and compliance for international shipments.
  • Logistics and Distribution Solutions: Includes distribution, post-sales support, and specialized supply chain solutions for industries such as healthcare.
  • Truckload Brokerage: Arranges full truckload transportation services for businesses.
  • Technology Solutions: Develops and provides shipping, visibility, and billing technologies to enhance logistics management.
  • Financial and Insurance Services: Offers financial and insurance products related to its transportation and logistics operations.
  • Consulting Services: Provides expert advice on logistics and supply chain optimization.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

United Parcel Service (UPS) primarily sells its services to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B) rather than individuals. Due to the vast and diverse nature of its customer base, spanning virtually all industries globally, UPS does not publicly disclose the names of its individual major customer companies. Its services are integral to the supply chains of countless businesses worldwide.

However, the major categories of companies that rely heavily on UPS for their operations include:

  • E-commerce Businesses and Retailers: Companies of all sizes, from large online marketplaces to small direct-to-consumer brands, use UPS for shipping products to their customers (both domestically and internationally).
  • Manufacturers and Distributors: Businesses across various sectors (e.g., automotive, electronics, consumer goods, industrial products) utilize UPS for transporting raw materials, components, finished goods, and managing complex supply chains.
  • Healthcare and Life Sciences Companies: As explicitly mentioned in the company description, this sector relies on UPS for specialized logistics, including temperature-controlled shipping, urgent deliveries, and compliance with strict regulations for pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and other sensitive materials.
  • Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs): A broad array of SMBs across virtually every industry use UPS for their shipping needs, from documents and small packages to freight services.

While individuals do use UPS for personal shipping (Consumer-to-Consumer or C2C) and returning items to businesses, the core of UPS's revenue and operational focus lies in serving the complex logistics and shipping requirements of other businesses.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Boeing (BA)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Carol Tomé, Chief Executive Officer

Carol Tomé has served as the Chief Executive Officer of UPS since June 2020, making her the first female CEO and the first external hire for the role in the company's history, although she had been a member of the Board since 2003. Before joining UPS, Ms. Tomé spent nearly two decades as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Home Depot, from 1995 to 2019. During her tenure at The Home Depot, she was instrumental in guiding the company through the financial recession and housing crisis, doubling sales to over $108 billion, and achieving a 450% increase in shareholder value. Her early career included roles as a commercial lender at United Bank of Denver (now Wells Fargo) and leadership positions at Johns-Manville Corporation and Riverwood International Corporation.

Brian Dykes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Brian Dykes was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of UPS in July 2024. He is a veteran of UPS with 25 years of service, having held various senior roles within the company's finance and accounting, corporate treasury, mergers and acquisitions, business intelligence, and business development functions, both in the United States and internationally. Prior to his current role, he served as Senior Vice President, Global Finance and Planning since April 2023.

Nando Cesarone, Executive Vice President and President U.S.

Nando Cesarone serves as the Executive Vice President and President U.S. for UPS, where he is responsible for overseeing the company's U.S. small package, transportation, and airline operations. He began his career at UPS in 1990 as a preloader, benefiting from the company's tuition reimbursement program, and later became a package car driver. His extensive international experience with UPS includes serving as President of UPS International, President of UPS Europe, and President of the Asia Pacific Region, where he led expansion efforts in emerging markets and China.

Kate Gutmann, Executive Vice President & President International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions

Kate Gutmann holds the position of Executive Vice President & President International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions at UPS. She is responsible for global sales, solutions, and customer engagement strategies, and also oversees the UPS Capital and The UPS Store business units worldwide. Ms. Gutmann started her career with UPS in 1989 as a marketing intern while studying at Siena College. She has progressed through numerous sales and marketing roles with increasing responsibility, including President of Worldwide Sales and Vice President of Marketing for the UPS Europe, Middle East, and Africa Region.

Bala Subramanian, Executive Vice President & Chief Digital and Technology Officer

Bala Subramanian is the Executive Vice President & Chief Digital and Technology Officer at UPS. He joined the company in 2020, bringing significant expertise in digital transformation, technology innovation, and strategic leadership. His career prior to UPS included various leadership roles with several major corporations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to United Parcel Service (UPS) include intense competition and shifts in the e-commerce landscape, labor costs and union relations, and fuel price volatility and rising operating expenses.

Competitive Landscape and E-commerce Shifts

UPS operates in a highly competitive industry with established rivals such as FedEx, DHL Express, and national postal services. A significant and evolving threat comes from Amazon Logistics, which has been rapidly expanding its sorting and distribution capabilities and handling a growing portion of its own package deliveries, with the potential to offer third-party services in the future. This intense competition necessitates continuous investment in network efficiency, technological innovation, and service diversification to maintain market share. In response to these shifts, UPS has been strategically reducing its reliance on Amazon's package volume and pivoting towards higher-margin segments like small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and healthcare logistics.

Labor Costs and Union Relations

UPS has a large, unionized workforce, primarily represented by the Teamsters. Labor costs are a significant challenge, with recent collective bargaining agreements leading to substantial increases in expenses. The company has faced and continues to navigate potential labor disputes, including strike threats, which can lead to operational disruptions and increased costs. Efforts by UPS to reduce its workforce through voluntary buyout plans, aimed at improving profitability and aligning staffing with reduced package volumes (particularly from Amazon), have also created tension and disputes with the union, which views these actions as potential violations of existing contracts.

Fuel Price Volatility and Operating Expenses

As a transportation and logistics company operating a large fleet of vehicles and aircraft, UPS is highly sensitive to fluctuations in fuel prices. While UPS implements fuel surcharges to offset these costs, significant or sustained increases in diesel and jet fuel prices directly impact operating expenses. These increased costs can put pressure on profitability and may necessitate passing on higher shipping costs to customers, potentially affecting demand for UPS's services. Beyond fuel, rising operating expenses generally, including compensation and benefits, also contribute to financial pressures.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The clear emerging threat for United Parcel Service (UPS) is the continued and extensive expansion of major e-commerce retailers, particularly Amazon, into developing and operating their own in-house logistics and delivery networks. Amazon, a significant former customer of UPS, has heavily invested in its own fleet of aircraft, trucks, vans, and last-mile delivery services, effectively internalizing a substantial volume of packages that were previously handled by traditional carriers like UPS. This trend represents a direct competitive challenge, as a major source of parcel volume is diverted to an internal network, significantly altering the competitive landscape and putting pressure on UPS's package delivery segments by removing a large customer and establishing a formidable new competitor.

AI Analysis | Feedback

United Parcel Service (UPS) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:

  • Global Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market: This market, which includes both domestic and international package delivery, was valued at approximately USD 956.19 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow significantly, reaching an estimated USD 2,976.01 billion by 2033.
  • U.S. Domestic Parcel Market: For its U.S. domestic package delivery services, the market generated USD 196 billion in revenue in 2025.
  • Global Freight Forwarding Market: The global freight forwarding market, encompassing international air and ocean freight forwarding, was valued at USD 230.68 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow to approximately USD 365.15 billion by 2035.
  • Global Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Market: This broad market, covering services such as international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and truckload brokerage, was valued at USD 1.6 trillion in 2025. The 3PL market is expected to expand to USD 4.3 trillion by 2035.
  • Global Healthcare Third-Party Logistics Market: For its specialized supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry, the global healthcare third-party logistics market was estimated at USD 261.39 billion in 2024. This specific segment is projected to grow to USD 406.36 billion by 2030.

AI Analysis | Feedback

United Parcel Service (UPS) is strategically positioning itself for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years by focusing on several key drivers:

  1. Expansion in Higher-Margin Markets: UPS is prioritizing growth in premium segments such as healthcare logistics and small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs/SMEs). This involves reducing lower-margin volume, for instance, by significantly decreasing its shipments for a major customer like Amazon, to concentrate on more profitable package types. The company aims to become the world's leading provider of complex healthcare logistics and has demonstrated strong growth in this area, targeting $20 billion in healthcare revenue by 2026.
  2. Network Optimization and Automation: Under its "Network of the Future" initiative, UPS is investing heavily in optimizing and automating its core integrated network. This strategy is designed to lower the cost to serve, enhance efficiency, and support anticipated volume growth. Plans include more than tripling the number of automated buildings in its network by the end of 2028, largely through implementing automation projects in existing facilities, and reconfiguring its U.S. network to yield substantial savings.
  3. Improved Revenue Quality and Strategic Pricing: UPS is focused on driving higher revenue per piece by implementing average rate increases across its ground, air, and international services. This emphasis on "revenue quality" is a core part of its strategy, which includes adjusting customer volume to focus on more profitable package types and insourcing services like SurePost to improve efficiency and control over final-mile delivery.
  4. International Market Expansion: The company continues to target growth in high-growth international markets. This involves efficiently connecting domestic and export customers to its global network, leveraging its established presence in over 200 countries and territories.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • In January 2023, UPS approved a new share repurchase authorization for $5.0 billion of Class A and Class B common stock, replacing a previous 2021 authorization.
  • UPS repurchased $2.2 billion in shares in 2023, $500 million in 2024, and $1 billion in 2025.
  • As of December 31, 2024, $2.3 billion remained available under the 2023 share repurchase authorization.

Outbound Investments

  • UPS acquired Frigo-Trans in January 2025 and Andlauer Healthcare Group (AHG) in November 2025, with recent strategic mergers and acquisitions focusing on healthcare logistics.
  • The company sold Coyote in the third quarter of 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $4.194 billion in 2021, $4.769 billion in 2022, $5.158 billion in 2023, $3.909 billion in 2024, and $3.685 billion in 2025.
  • Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $3.0 billion, marking a 10-year low.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures includes network reconfiguration, automation investments, and capacity rightsizing, emphasizing a leaner, more productive network.

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPSFDXODFLCHRWEXPDJBHTMedian
NameUnited P.FedEx Old Domi.C.H. Rob.Expedito.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Price109.31329.44220.12180.34161.67274.68200.23
Mkt Cap92.977.745.821.621.626.035.9
Rev LTM88,31791,9335,45616,19911,18612,13414,167
Op Inc LTM7,4686,4661,3407941,0828931,211
FCF LTM4,5164,3711,0188079211,0321,025
FCF 3Y Avg5,1683,712928584804555866
CFO LTM8,3568,1791,4078779731,6271,517
CFO 3Y Avg9,5598,1521,5196578491,5901,555

Growth & Margins

UPSFDXODFLCHRWEXPDJBHTMedian
NameUnited P.FedEx Old Domi.C.H. Rob.Expedito.JB Hunt . 
Rev Chg LTM-2.9%4.7%-4.8%-6.7%1.1%0.6%-1.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.6%-0.2%-4.2%-9.9%-5.1%-5.7%-4.7%
Rev Chg Q-1.6%8.3%-2.9%-0.8%4.4%4.6%1.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%2.0%-0.7%-0.2%1.1%1.1%0.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM-12.4%7.9%-10.4%10.4%-1.0%9.6%3.5%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-14.1%5.1%-9.7%1.5%-7.7%-9.8%-8.7%
Op Mgn LTM8.5%7.0%24.6%4.9%9.7%7.4%7.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.0%6.9%26.2%3.9%9.8%7.1%8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%0.0%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM9.5%8.9%25.8%5.4%8.7%13.4%9.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.7%9.2%26.7%3.9%8.2%13.0%9.9%
FCF/Rev LTM5.1%4.8%18.7%5.0%8.2%8.5%6.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.8%4.2%16.4%3.5%7.8%4.6%5.2%

Valuation

UPSFDXODFLCHRWEXPDJBHTMedian
NameUnited P.FedEx Old Domi.C.H. Rob.Expedito.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Cap92.977.745.821.621.626.035.9
P/S1.10.88.41.31.92.11.6
P/Op Inc12.412.034.227.220.029.123.6
P/EBIT11.911.634.227.220.028.923.6
P/E17.717.345.536.125.841.730.9
P/CFO11.19.532.624.622.216.019.1
Total Yield11.5%7.5%2.7%4.2%4.8%3.0%4.5%
Dividend Yield5.8%1.7%0.5%1.4%1.0%0.7%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.2%5.2%2.3%4.3%4.5%3.1%4.4%
D/E0.30.50.00.10.00.10.1
Net D/E0.20.4-0.00.1-0.00.00.1

Returns

UPSFDXODFLCHRWEXPDJBHTMedian
NameUnited P.FedEx Old Domi.C.H. Rob.Expedito.JB Hunt . 
1M Rtn7.2%3.2%1.7%1.7%1.1%2.6%2.2%
3M Rtn14.0%18.1%17.3%7.9%13.9%33.5%15.6%
6M Rtn12.0%40.1%38.5%10.1%7.2%39.1%25.2%
12M Rtn17.6%88.9%38.2%97.6%45.5%94.3%67.2%
3Y Rtn-25.4%86.1%33.8%108.9%44.4%60.2%52.3%
1M Excs Rtn9.3%5.4%3.9%3.9%3.3%4.8%4.3%
3M Excs Rtn1.4%3.9%5.0%-5.0%1.9%20.0%2.9%
6M Excs Rtn4.9%34.6%31.6%3.1%-0.8%31.2%18.1%
12M Excs Rtn-4.7%62.0%16.0%73.5%22.3%72.6%42.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-94.9%21.1%-28.0%41.0%-23.0%-5.0%-14.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
United States (U.S.) Domestic Package59,519  64,20960,317
International Package18,576  19,69819,541
Other revenues10,566    
Single Segment 91,07090,958  
Supply Chain Solutions   16,43117,429
Total88,66191,07090,958100,33897,287


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252023202220212020
United States (U.S.) Domestic Package3,9265,0766,9976,4363,891
International Package2,8733,2314,3264,6463,436
Other profit/(loss)1,068    
Supply Chain Solutions 8341,7711,728357
Total7,8679,14113,09412,8107,684


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
United States (U.S.) Domestic Package38,35938,65738,36838,30335,746
International Package18,21418,30017,58717,67017,225
Other assets12,6939,850   
Unallocated assets3,8243,2633,6574,7446,878
Supply Chain Solutions  11,24510,4079,556
Total73,09070,07070,85771,12469,405


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$109.31 
Market Cap ($ Bil)92.9 
First Trading Date11/10/1999 
Distance from 52W High-100.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$103.65$97.48
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA5.5%12.1%
 3M1YR
Volatility36.0%30.2%
Downside Capture129.4794.70
Upside Capture116.7591.54
Correlation (SPY)  
UPS Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.601.131.070.800.830.76
Up Beta2.011.041.211.050.670.80
Down Beta-1.090.670.970.730.750.58
Up Capture123%96%66%78%82%37%
Bmk +ve Days13283667141432
Stock +ve Days13283572137381
Down Capture344%196%143%69%99%100%
Bmk -ve Days7132757109318
Stock -ve Days7132852113364

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPS
UPS15.8%30.5%0.49-
Sector ETF (XLI)30.5%16.4%1.4248.3%
Equity (SPY)23.7%12.5%1.3934.3%
Gold (GLD)18.8%27.7%0.6014.0%
Commodities (DBC)19.5%19.4%0.78-19.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.6%13.8%0.6825.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-43.7%42.3%-1.222.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPS
UPS-4.3%29.1%-0.13-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.7%17.7%0.6755.0%
Equity (SPY)13.9%16.9%0.6548.8%
Gold (GLD)17.4%18.3%0.786.3%
Commodities (DBC)9.8%19.5%0.407.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.7%0.1543.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)0.8%56.7%0.248.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPS
UPS4.5%28.0%0.20-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.7%20.4%0.6657.4%
Equity (SPY)15.4%18.0%0.7654.8%
Gold (GLD)11.6%16.4%0.611.9%
Commodities (DBC)5.9%18.2%0.2713.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.5%21.0%0.2443.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)56.6%67.8%0.996.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 5312026-0.1%
Average Daily Volume5.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity850.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/2/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/28/2026-4.0%-11.0%-1.9%
1/27/20260.2%3.1%7.9%
10/28/20258.0%5.5%7.8%
7/29/2025-10.6%-16.3%-12.3%
4/29/2025-0.4%-1.6%1.3%
1/30/2025-14.1%-16.4%-9.8%
10/24/20245.3%1.8%1.2%
7/23/2024-12.1%-11.4%-10.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101215
# Negative14129
Median Positive6.1%4.3%4.7%
Median Negative-6.5%-7.8%-9.8%
Max Positive14.4%20.7%30.4%
Max Negative-14.1%-16.4%-12.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/28/2026-4.0%-11.0%-1.9%
1/27/20260.2%3.1%7.9%
10/28/20258.0%5.5%7.8%
7/29/2025-10.6%-16.3%-12.3%
4/29/2025-0.4%-1.6%1.3%
1/30/2025-14.1%-16.4%-9.8%
10/24/20245.3%1.8%1.2%
7/23/2024-12.1%-11.4%-10.1%
4/23/20242.4%2.2%1.2%
1/30/2024-8.2%-12.0%-5.4%
10/26/2023-5.9%-4.9%4.7%
8/8/2023-0.9%-2.8%-10.1%
4/25/2023-10.0%-7.0%-12.5%
1/31/20234.7%6.7%4.4%
10/25/2022-0.3%0.1%11.1%
7/26/2022-3.4%4.0%10.1%
4/26/2022-3.5%-5.8%-7.4%
2/1/202214.1%11.3%5.3%
10/26/20216.9%3.4%4.4%
7/27/2021-7.0%-8.5%-7.4%
4/27/202110.4%20.7%20.9%
2/2/20212.6%4.6%3.3%
10/28/2020-8.8%-4.3%0.4%
7/30/202014.4%17.3%30.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101215
# Negative14129
Median Positive6.1%4.3%4.7%
Median Negative-6.5%-7.8%-9.8%
Max Positive14.4%20.7%30.4%
Max Negative-14.1%-16.4%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/17/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/20/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/08/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/21/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/17/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/20/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/08/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/21/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q
12/31/202102/22/202210-K
09/30/202111/04/202110-Q
06/30/202108/06/202110-Q
03/31/202105/05/202110-Q
12/31/202002/22/202110-K
09/30/202011/02/202010-Q
06/30/202008/04/202010-Q
03/31/202005/08/202010-Q
12/31/201902/20/202010-K
09/30/201910/29/201910-Q
06/30/201907/30/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 5/31/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue 89.70 Bil 00AffirmedGuidance: 89.70 Bil for 2026
2026 Operating Margin 9.6% 00AffirmedGuidance: 9.6% for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures 3.00 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Dividends 5.40 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 5.40 Bil for 2026
2026 Program Cost Savings 3.00 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Effective Tax Rate 23.0%   Higher New
2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Expense Exclusions1.30 Bil1.40 Bil1.50 Bil  Higher New

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue 89.70 Bil    
2026 Operating Margin 9.6%    
2026 Capital Expenditures 3.00 Bil -14.3% LoweredGuidance: 3.50 Bil for 2025
2026 Dividends 5.40 Bil -1.8% LoweredGuidance: 5.50 Bil for 2025
2026 Cost Savings 3.00 Bil    

Insider Activity

Updated 5/15/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Brothers, Norman M JRChief Legal & Compliance OffDirectSell1282026106.1525,014  Form
2Shi, Christiana Smith DirectBuy826202588.1750044,08444,084Form
3Tome, Carol BChief Executive OfficerDirectBuy801202585.6711,6821,000,8162,117,631Form
4Johnson, William R DirectBuy801202586.505,000432,477878,793Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Brothers, Norman M JRChief Legal & Compliance OffDirectSell1282026106.1525,014  Form
2Shi, Christiana Smith DirectBuy826202588.1750044,08444,084Form
3Tome, Carol BChief Executive OfficerDirectBuy801202585.6711,6821,000,8162,117,631Form
4Johnson, William R DirectBuy801202586.505,000432,477878,793Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 6/25/2026