Union Pacific (UNP)
Market Price (12/11/2025): $234.4 | Market Cap: $138.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Union Pacific (UNP)
Market Price (12/11/2025): $234.4Market Cap: $138.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UNP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Union Pacific's (UNP) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 11, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Union Pacific reported robust adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.08 for the third quarter of 2025, marking a 12% increase compared to the previous year and exceeding analyst expectations. Operating revenue for the quarter also grew by 3% to $6.2 billion, primarily driven by solid core pricing gains. These results were further supported by operational efficiencies, including improved freight car velocity and workforce productivity.
2. Shareholder Approval of Norfolk Southern Merger: In November 2025, Union Pacific shareholders overwhelmingly approved the proposed merger with Norfolk Southern, with 99.5% of votes cast in favor. This strategic initiative aims to establish America's first transcontinental railroad, representing a significant long-term development for the company. As a result, share repurchases have been temporarily paused to facilitate the merger.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UNP Return | 18% | 23% | -16% | 22% | -5% | 6% | 49% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 24% | -9% | 8% | -9% | 13% | 61% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UNP Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 53% | 37% | 52% | 48% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UNP Max Drawdown | -37% | -7% | -25% | -10% | -9% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -5% | -20% | -11% | -14% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, JBHT. See UNP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/10/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UNP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 578 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, UNP
In The Past
Union Pacific's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UNP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 20.9% | 20.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.1% | -0.1% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.5% | 2.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | UNP | Union Pacific | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 21.6% | -9.7% |
| 06302022 | UNP | Union Pacific | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -1.6% | -12.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 20.9% | 20.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.1% | -0.1% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.5% | 2.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | UNP | Union Pacific | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 21.6% | -9.7% |
| 06302022 | UNP | Union Pacific | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -1.6% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Union Pacific
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 148.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 67.1 |
| Rev LTM | 14,576 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,192 |
| FCF LTM | 2,246 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,373 |
| CFO LTM | 5,052 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,028 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 37.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 67.1 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.9 |
| P/E | 21.2 |
| P/CFO | 13.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -2.3% | -3.9% | -1.8% |
| 7/24/2025 | -4.5% | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| 4/24/2025 | -2.0% | -1.9% | 1.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | -4.4% | -3.8% | -1.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | -0.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1/25/2024 | -0.3% | 0.7% | 6.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -3.1% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -13.1% | -12.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10192023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
