Tearsheet

Union Pacific (UNP)


Market Price (11/5/2025): $220.22 | Market Cap: $130.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Union Pacific (UNP)


Market Price (11/5/2025): $220.22
Market Cap: $130.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

UNP Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UNP Return18%23%-16%22%-5%-1%38%
Peers Return23%14%-6%-5%50%-5%80%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UNP Win Rate58%50%42%50%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate58%40%31%50%48%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UNP Max Drawdown-37%-7%-25%-10%-9%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-5%-15%-26%-10%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CP, CSX, NSC, CNI, SWVL. See UNP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUNPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven50 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven149.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven578 days1480 days

Compare to CP, CSX, NSC, CNI, SWVL


In The Past

Union Pacific's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Union Pacific (UNP)

Better Bets than Union Pacific (UNP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UNP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.8%-3.8%-3.8%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.3%-7.3%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%-0.8%
UNP_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%21.6%-9.7%
UNP_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-1.6%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.8%-3.8%-3.8%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.3%-7.3%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%-0.8%
UNP_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%21.6%-9.7%
UNP_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-1.6%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Union Pacific

Financials

UNPCPCSXNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameUnion Pa.Canadian.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Mkt Price220.9170.6235.84283.8095.763.0083.19
Mkt Cap130.964.366.863.759.6-64.3
Rev LTM24,54615,02914,12312,23017,1981814,576
Op Inc LTM9,9705,5564,8284,7556,482-55,192
FCF LTM6,0132,3931,5522,0993,444-2,393
FCF 3Y Avg5,4342,2222,5241,4933,558-2,524
CFO LTM9,7275,4894,6154,2496,817-5,489
CFO 3Y Avg9,0274,9705,0863,7766,919-5,086

Growth & Margins

UNPCPCSXNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameUnion Pa.Canadian.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Rev Chg LTM1.1%4.0%-3.8%0.5%0.2%22.5%0.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.2%22.2%-1.0%-0.3%1.8%-0.2%
Rev Chg Q2.5%3.2%-0.9%1.7%1.3%123.4%2.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%0.8%-0.2%0.4%0.3%290.5%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM40.6%37.0%34.2%38.9%37.7%-28.5%37.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg39.3%35.7%36.5%38.6%38.4%-38.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%0.6%-0.7%-3.2%0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM39.6%36.5%32.7%34.7%39.6%-36.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg37.1%36.9%35.0%30.9%40.5%-36.9%
FCF/Rev LTM24.5%15.9%11.0%17.2%20.0%-17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.3%16.6%17.3%12.2%20.8%-17.3%

Valuation

UNPCPCSXNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameUnion Pa.Canadian.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Mkt Cap130.964.366.863.759.6-64.3
P/S5.34.34.75.23.5-4.7
P/EBIT12.710.214.513.88.5-12.7
P/E18.615.123.021.512.9-18.6
P/CFO13.511.714.515.08.7-13.5
Total Yield7.9%7.8%5.4%4.7%11.4%-7.8%
Dividend Yield2.5%1.2%1.1%0.0%3.7%-1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.9%3.1%3.9%2.6%5.3%-3.9%
D/E0.30.40.30.30.4-0.3
Net D/E0.20.40.30.20.4-0.3

Returns

UNPCPCSXNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameUnion Pa.Canadian.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
1M Rtn-6.7%-9.0%-0.5%-5.4%-0.6%-5.6%-5.5%
3M Rtn-0.3%-5.8%0.9%1.4%2.6%-24.8%0.3%
6M Rtn4.9%-3.4%28.6%30.4%-1.2%1.7%3.3%
12M Rtn-1.6%-8.9%9.1%16.5%-8.9%-13.3%-5.2%
3Y Rtn20.5%-4.7%26.3%29.4%-14.1%-76.5%7.9%
1M Excs Rtn-7.4%-9.2%-1.6%-5.8%-1.3%-6.1%-5.9%
3M Excs Rtn-8.1%-14.2%-6.8%-6.4%-4.1%-30.2%-7.5%
6M Excs Rtn-15.9%-24.2%7.9%9.7%-22.0%-19.1%-17.5%
12M Excs Rtn-21.2%-26.4%-10.5%-2.9%-27.5%-28.9%-23.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-54.2%-75.7%-45.5%-40.8%-87.6%-152.2%-65.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Railroad24,11924,87521,80419,53321,708
Total24,11924,87521,80419,53321,708


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,338,494
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020256.6%
Average Daily Volume2,984,578
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.14
Basic Shares Quantity592,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.1%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231019202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023420202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221020202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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