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United Airlines (UAL)


Market Price (12/2/2025): $102.12 | Market Cap: $33.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

United Airlines (UAL)


Market Price (12/2/2025): $102.12
Market Cap: $33.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 12%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UAL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

United Airlines (UAL) experienced a stock movement of -3.7% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 2, 2025, influenced by several key factors: 1. 1. Lower Year-over-Year Adjusted Earnings in Q3 2025
Despite beating analyst estimates for the third quarter of 2025, United Airlines reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.78, which marked a decline from $3.33 per share in Q3 2024. This year-over-year decrease in profitability likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.

2. 2. Missed Revenue Expectations in Q3 2025
United Airlines' total operating revenue of $15.2 billion in Q3 2025, while showing a 2.6% year-over-year increase, fell slightly below the anticipated $15.33 billion by analysts. This revenue shortfall, despite overall growth, can be a negative signal for the market.

3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UAL Return-51%1%-14%9%135%4%15%
Peers Return-20%-0%-7%8%34%-13%-8%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UAL Win Rate25%42%50%50%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate15%23%25%33%44%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UAL Max Drawdown-77%-10%-29%-10%-8%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-7%-14%-4%-27%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, SRFM, CAKR, RJET, UAL. See UAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/1/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUALS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven100.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven952 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-77.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven350.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1643 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven266 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-93.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1545.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2248 days1480 days

Compare to DAL, SRFM, CAKR, RJET, UAL


In The Past

United Airlines's stock fell -50.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/17/2021. A -50.0% loss requires a 100.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About United Airlines (UAL)

Better Bets than United Airlines (UAL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.1%6.1%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
5.0%5.0%0.0%
UAL_12312018_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312018UALUnited AirlinesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
5.6%5.2%-7.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.1%6.1%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
5.0%5.0%0.0%
UAL_12312018_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312018UALUnited AirlinesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
5.6%5.2%-7.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for United Airlines

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UALDALSRFMCAKRRJETMedian
NameUnited A.Delta Ai.Surf Air.Cambodia.Republic. 
Mkt Price101.1264.151.94-19.3041.73
Mkt Cap32.741.60.0--32.7
Rev LTM58,36862,920107-1,35329,860
Op Inc LTM5,1656,072-35-2582,712
FCF LTM3,7103,074-78-1381,606
FCF 3Y Avg1,7831,835-63--123860
CFO LTM9,3697,976-62-2224,099
CFO 3Y Avg8,2207,253-53-2453,749

Growth & Margins

UALDALSRFMCAKRRJETMedian
NameUnited A.Delta Ai.Surf Air.Cambodia.Republic. 
Rev Chg LTM4.2%4.3%-4.0%-3.7%4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.2%10.8%---0.1%10.8%
Rev Chg Q2.6%6.4%-15.2%-30.9%4.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%1.6%-4.4%-7.4%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM8.8%9.7%-32.6%-19.1%9.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.2%9.5%-138.1%-12.2%9.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%0.3%6.9%-2.1%1.2%
CFO/Rev LTM16.1%12.7%-58.1%-16.4%14.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.8%12.1%-86.7%-18.1%13.4%
FCF/Rev LTM6.4%4.9%-72.2%-10.2%5.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.1%3.0%-96.5%--9.2%-3.1%

Valuation

UALDALSRFMCAKRRJETMedian
NameUnited A.Delta Ai.Surf Air.Cambodia.Republic. 
Mkt Cap32.741.60.0--32.7
P/S0.50.60.7--0.6
P/EBIT5.75.6-1.7--5.6
P/E9.58.0-1.3--8.0
P/CFO3.34.6-1.2--3.3
Total Yield10.5%13.2%-74.4%--10.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.7%5.7%---6.7%
D/E1.00.61.2--1.0
Net D/E0.60.50.9--0.6

Returns

UALDALSRFMCAKRRJETMedian
NameUnited A.Delta Ai.Surf Air.Cambodia.Republic. 
1M Rtn7.5%11.8%-52.2%--7.5%
3M Rtn-3.7%4.2%-55.3%---3.7%
6M Rtn24.5%33.1%-10.2%--24.5%
12M Rtn4.4%1.7%-51.6%--1.7%
3Y Rtn130.4%84.7%---107.5%
1M Excs Rtn6.5%10.3%-49.9%--6.5%
3M Excs Rtn-9.1%-1.3%-60.8%---9.1%
6M Excs Rtn12.0%18.2%-32.0%--12.0%
12M Excs Rtn-9.4%-13.1%-62.1%---13.1%
3Y Excs Rtn62.7%22.5%---42.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,535,642
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.2%
Average Daily Volume5,495,616
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.28
Basic Shares Quantity323,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/15/2025-5.6%-7.5%-6.6%
7/16/20253.1%2.2%12.1%
4/15/2025-0.0%1.5%14.2%
1/21/20252.9%-0.6%-0.8%
10/15/202412.4%16.3%40.2%
7/17/2024-1.2%-2.0%-9.1%
4/16/202417.4%30.2%32.4%
1/22/20245.3%9.5%14.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111113
# Negative131311
Median Positive5.0%5.0%10.9%
Median Negative-4.6%-3.7%-5.0%
Max Positive17.4%30.2%40.2%
Max Negative-10.2%-23.1%-9.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251016202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025717202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025416202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241016202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024718202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024417202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231018202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023720202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023420202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221019202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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