United Airlines (UAL)
Market Price (10/28/2025): $98.85 | Market Cap: $32.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
United Airlines (UAL)
Market Price (10/28/2025): $98.85Market Cap: $32.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 12% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
UAL Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UAL Return | -51% | 1% | -14% | 9% | 135% | 2% | 13% |
| Peers Return | -28% | 1% | -16% | 6% | 37% | -9% | -20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UAL Win Rate | 25% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 35% | 40% | 41% | 60% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UAL Max Drawdown | -77% | -10% | -29% | -10% | -8% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -9% | -24% | -13% | -31% | -45% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, SRFM, UAL, LUV, AAL. See UAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/27/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 952 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -77.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 350.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1643 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -93.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1545.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2248 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DAL, SRFM, UAL, LUV, AAL
In The Past
United Airlines's stock fell -50.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/17/2021. A -50.0% loss requires a 100.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.0% | 3.0% | -6.2% |
| 09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.6% | -5.6% | -7.3% |
| 08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.0% | -7.0% | -8.5% |
| 08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -5.6% |
| 08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 25.9% | 25.9% | -1.2% |
| 12312018 | UAL | United Airlines | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.6% | 5.2% | -7.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.0% | 3.0% | -6.2% |
| 09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.6% | -5.6% | -7.3% |
| 08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.0% | -7.0% | -8.5% |
| 08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -5.6% |
| 08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 25.9% | 25.9% | -1.2% |
| 12312018 | UAL | United Airlines | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.6% | 5.2% | -7.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for United Airlines
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.9 |
| Rev LTM | 54,294 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,259 |
| FCF LTM | 882 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 962 |
| CFO LTM | 3,771 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,667 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.9 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.8 |
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/CFO | 3.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 43.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 37.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/15/2025 | -5.6% | -7.5% | |
| 7/16/2025 | 3.1% | 2.2% | 12.1% |
| 4/15/2025 | -0.0% | 1.5% | 14.2% |
| 1/21/2025 | -2.3% | -3.8% | -7.3% |
| 10/15/2024 | 12.4% | 16.3% | 40.2% |
| 7/17/2024 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -9.1% |
| 4/16/2024 | 17.4% | 30.2% | 32.4% |
| 1/22/2024 | 5.3% | 9.5% | 14.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 5.0% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -3.8% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 17.4% | 30.2% | 40.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.2% | -23.1% | -9.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10162025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7172025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4162025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10162024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7182024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4172024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10182023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10192022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Gebo Kate | EVP HR and Labor Relations | 8142025 | Sell | 97.59 | 29,953 | 2,923,203 | 4,440,091 | Form |
| 1 | Harford Barney | 8122025 | Sell | 90.03 | 15,823 | 1,424,598 | 8,012,973 | Form | |
| 2 | Freyre Michelle | 7292025 | Sell | 92.13 | 900 | 82,914 | 76,373 | Form | |
| 3 | Enqvist Torbjorn J | EVP & Chief Operations Officer | 7222025 | Sell | 92.22 | 20,000 | 1,844,500 | 5,750,967 | Form |
| 4 | Jojo Linda P | EVP & Chief Customer Officer | 11262024 | Sell | 95.12 | 60,000 | 5,707,500 | 6,049,855 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |