United Airlines (UAL)
Market Price (5/3/2026): $92.4 | Market Cap: $29.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
United Airlines (UAL)
Market Price (5/3/2026): $92.4Market Cap: $29.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 9.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% Key risksUAL key risks include workforce instability driven by [1] flight attendants' rejection of a labor agreement and [2] a U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 9.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
| Key risksUAL key risks include workforce instability driven by [1] flight attendants' rejection of a labor agreement and [2] a U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
United Airlines (UAL) stock has lost about 10% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Fuel Costs and Geopolitical Instability. United Airlines faced significant headwinds from a sharp increase in jet fuel prices, which "more than doubled since the war with Iran began in late February". This macroeconomic factor led CEO Scott Kirby to state that the airline needed an 8.5-point rise in revenue per available seat mile (RASM) to offset approximately $4.6 billion in higher fuel costs. Concerns over these rising costs contributed to a 6.09% premarket stock drop despite a positive Q1 earnings report. The airline also began adjusting its schedule for the remainder of 2026, with an expected 5-point capacity reduction due to higher fuel prices.
2. Cautious Future Guidance Despite Strong Q1 Earnings Beat. Although United Airlines reported strong first-quarter 2026 financial results, beating analysts' consensus estimates with an EPS of $1.19 (10.19% higher than the $1.08 estimate) and revenue of $14.61 billion (exceeding estimates by $0.42 billion), the company issued conservative guidance for Q2 and the full year 2026. Management's revised outlook projected full-year 2026 EPS between $7.00 and $11.00, and Q2 EPS between $1.00 and $2.00. This cautious forward-looking statement, largely attributed to the persistent high fuel costs, dampened investor enthusiasm and contributed to a post-earnings decline, including a 5.58% drop on April 22, 2026.
Show more
1. Elevated Fuel Costs and Geopolitical Instability. United Airlines faced significant headwinds from a sharp increase in jet fuel prices, which "more than doubled since the war with Iran began in late February". This macroeconomic factor led CEO Scott Kirby to state that the airline needed an 8.5-point rise in revenue per available seat mile (RASM) to offset approximately $4.6 billion in higher fuel costs. Concerns over these rising costs contributed to a 6.09% premarket stock drop despite a positive Q1 earnings report. The airline also began adjusting its schedule for the remainder of 2026, with an expected 5-point capacity reduction due to higher fuel prices.
2. Cautious Future Guidance Despite Strong Q1 Earnings Beat. Although United Airlines reported strong first-quarter 2026 financial results, beating analysts' consensus estimates with an EPS of $1.19 (10.19% higher than the $1.08 estimate) and revenue of $14.61 billion (exceeding estimates by $0.42 billion), the company issued conservative guidance for Q2 and the full year 2026. Management's revised outlook projected full-year 2026 EPS between $7.00 and $11.00, and Q2 EPS between $1.00 and $2.00. This cautious forward-looking statement, largely attributed to the persistent high fuel costs, dampened investor enthusiasm and contributed to a post-earnings decline, including a 5.58% drop on April 22, 2026.
Show more
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.6% change in UAL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.32 | 92.52 | -9.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,368 | 60,465 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.1 | 8.2 | -18.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 324 | 324 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UAL | -9.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 65.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.8% | 65.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.6% change in UAL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.04 | 92.52 | -1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,368 | 60,465 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.2 | 8.2 | -11.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 324 | 324 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UAL | -1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 60.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.2% | 59.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.4% change in UAL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 68.82 | 92.52 | 34.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,736 | 60,465 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 6.1% | -4.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.2 | 8.2 | 32.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 328 | 324 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UAL | 34.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 58.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.6% | 57.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 111.2% change in UAL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.80 | 92.52 | 111.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 48,818 | 60,465 | 23.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.9% | 6.1% | 54.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.5 | 8.2 | 9.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 327 | 324 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 111.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UAL | 111.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 58.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 80.9% | 59.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UAL Return | 1% | -14% | 9% | 135% | 15% | -20% | 108% |
| Peers Return | 0% | -28% | -1% | 41% | -7% | -11% | -16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UAL Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 47% | 42% | 60% | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UAL Max Drawdown | -10% | -29% | -10% | -8% | -42% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -35% | -25% | -18% | -43% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAL, AAL, LUV, ALK, JBLU. See UAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 273.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1686 days | 140 days |
In The Past
United Airlines's stock fell -47.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 89.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | UAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 273.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1686 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 62 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 979.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1765 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
United Airlines's stock fell -47.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 89.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About United Airlines (UAL)
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The company transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. It also offers catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for third parties. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Passenger Air Transportation: The company provides scheduled flights for passengers across its extensive global network.
- Cargo Air Transportation: United Airlines transports freight and mail internationally using its fleet.
- Catering Services: The company offers food and beverage services, including for third-party airlines.
- Ground Handling Services: United Airlines provides essential ground support for aircraft and passengers, available also to third parties.
- Training Services: The company offers aviation-related training programs, often for external clients.
- Maintenance Services: United Airlines performs aircraft maintenance and repair, including for third-party aircraft.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlUnited Airlines (UAL) primarily sells air transportation services to individuals, but also serves business customers for cargo and other aviation services. Its major customer categories include:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families flying for personal reasons such as vacations, holidays, or visiting friends and relatives. This segment often seeks competitive pricing and flexible booking options.
- Business Travelers: Individuals traveling for corporate purposes, including meetings, conferences, client visits, or other work-related assignments. This segment typically prioritizes convenience, direct routes, and flexibility for last-minute changes.
- Cargo and Third-Party Service Customers: This category includes businesses utilizing United Airlines for air cargo transport (shipping goods globally) and other aviation companies that purchase services like catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance from United's subsidiaries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Boeing (NYSE: BA)
- Airbus (Euronext Paris: AIR)
- GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE)
- RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) (parent company of Pratt & Whitney)
- Amadeus IT Group SA (BME: AMS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to United Airlines (UAL) are:
- Fuel Price Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions: United Airlines faces significant financial pressure from rising and volatile jet fuel prices, which are often exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Fuel can account for a substantial portion of an airline's operating expenses, and United's decision not to hedge fuel costs increases its exposure to market fluctuations.
- Labor Costs and Negotiations: The airline industry, including United, constantly grapples with managing operational costs, with labor being a major component. Ongoing labor negotiations, such as those with flight attendants, pose a risk of increased cost inflation and highlight inherent workforce and cost structure challenges.
- Economic Headwinds and Demand Slowdown: United Airlines is vulnerable to broader economic uncertainties, including potential slowdowns in demand for air travel. Recent evidence indicates a softening in demand, particularly in government and business travel segments, leading the airline to trim domestic capacity. Economic factors like rising interest rates and inflation could further dampen overall travel demand.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to United Airlines (UAL) is the accelerating development and adoption of advanced virtual presence technologies, including virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) platforms. As these technologies mature, they offer increasingly immersive and effective alternatives to physical travel for business meetings, conferences, training, and potentially even some forms of tourism. This shift could significantly reduce the demand for air travel, particularly the high-yield business class segment, by enabling individuals and companies to achieve their objectives without the need for physical presence.
AI Analysis | Feedback
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) operates in several significant addressable markets, primarily air transportation for passengers and cargo, along with ancillary services like catering, ground handling, and maintenance.
Passenger Air Transportation
- The global passenger air transport market was valued at approximately USD 870.78 billion in 2025, with projections indicating growth to USD 1.2 trillion by 2030. Another estimate places the market at USD 830.72 billion in 2025, growing to USD 1.86 trillion by 2032.
- In North America, the aviation market, which includes passenger air transport, was valued at USD 79 billion based on a five-year historical analysis. Specifically, North America is forecasted to reach 2.1 billion passengers in 2025.
Air Cargo Transportation
- The global air cargo market was valued at USD 185.3 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 288.8 billion by 2032. Other estimates include USD 172.74 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 273.50 billion by 2032, and USD 186.24 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 275.16 billion by 2033.
- For North America, the air cargo market was valued at USD 31.94 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 43.20 billion by 2028. In 2025, North America's air cargo market share was estimated at more than 40% of the global revenue, with a market size of USD 74.49 billion.
Catering Services
- The global airline catering market was valued at USD 18.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 29.3 billion by 2034. Another report estimates the market size at USD 19.61 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach approximately USD 35.12 billion by 2034.
Ground Handling Services
- The global airport ground handling market was approximately USD 34.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 64.2 billion by 2030. Another source indicates a market size of USD 37.1 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 90.9 billion by 2034. The combined global airport ground and cargo handling services market was valued at USD 51.23 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 88.17 billion by 2034.
- In North America, the airport ground and cargo handling services market held a 34.89% share of the global market in 2025, valued at USD 17.87 billion.
Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Services
- The global aviation MRO market was valued at USD 90.73 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to USD 145.28 billion by 2034. Another source valued the global commercial aircraft MRO services market at USD 110.7 billion in 2023, estimated to grow to USD 146.9 billion by 2032. The commercial aircraft MRO market is estimated at USD 100.99 billion in 2026, projected to reach USD 128.17 billion by 2031.
- In North America, the MRO demand is projected to grow from USD 28 billion to USD 34 billion by 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several strategic initiatives and favorable market dynamics:
- Growth in Premium Cabin and Loyalty Program Offerings: United Airlines is strategically focusing on expanding its premium services, which has already demonstrated significant growth in premium cabin revenue. This emphasis on higher-value offerings, coupled with robust loyalty programs, is expected to attract and retain high-spending customers, thereby enhancing revenue and margin expansion.
- Strategic International Route Expansion and Increased Capacity: The company is actively expanding its route network, particularly in high-margin international markets, by adding new destinations and increasing flight frequencies on existing routes to meet rising demand. This expansion, supported by the "United Next" growth plan and planned fleet modernization and expansion, is set to increase available capacity and capture a larger market share.
- Enhancement of Customer Experience through Technology and Operational Efficiencies: United's investments in advanced technologies, such as AI for operational decision-making and the rapid deployment of Starlink for in-flight Wi-Fi, are expected to significantly improve the customer experience. These enhancements aim to differentiate United from competitors, increase customer satisfaction, and attract more passengers, ultimately contributing to revenue growth.
- Sustained Strong Travel Demand: The overall robust demand for air travel, especially within the premium leisure segment, is a crucial driver of revenue growth for United Airlines. The airline has reported record quarterly revenues and strong bookings, indicating a resilient market and continued demand for its services over the coming years.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- United Airlines authorized a $1.5 billion share repurchase program in October 2024, to be executed starting in Q4 2024 and continuing through 2025.
- The company repurchased $640 million of shares in the full year 2025.
- Actual share buybacks for 2024 amounted to $162 million and for 2025 to $637 million.
Share Issuance
- In January 2021, United received approximately $2.6 billion in funding through a Payroll Support Program Extension Agreement with the U.S. Treasury Department, which involved the issuance and sale of UAL common stock.
- United Airlines' shares outstanding declined by 1.41% in 2025 to 0.329 billion.
Outbound Investments
- United Airlines planned a $100 million investment in Azul S.A. through a subscription of Azul shares and ADSs, approved in February 2026.
- The company made a new investment in the carbon capture startup Heirloom as of April 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- United Airlines' capital expenditures averaged $5.117 billion annually from 2021 to 2025.
- For 2025, net capital expenditures totaled $5.9 billion, primarily focused on fleet expansion.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be under $8 billion, with over $12 billion specifically earmarked for the delivery of 124 new aircraft, aligning with the "United Next" strategy for fleet modernization and customer experience enhancements like Starlink Wi-Fi and cabin upgrades.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to UAL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 03312023 | UAL | United Airlines | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -4.4% | 8.2% | -23.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.6 |
| Rev LTM | 42,439 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,390 |
| FCF LTM | -172 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 24 |
| CFO LTM | 3,049 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,686 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -24.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.6 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 6.9 |
| P/EBIT | 6.1 |
| P/E | 16.8 |
| P/CFO | 3.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $92.52 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 30.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/06/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $95.55 | $100.76 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.2% | -8.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 58.1% | 48.2% |
| Downside Capture | 1.90 | 1.39 |
| Upside Capture | 213.76 | 212.48 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 65.0% | 58.3% |
UAL Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.98 | 2.26 | 2.53 | 2.29 | 2.26 | 1.84 |
| Up Beta | 3.64 | 3.60 | 3.41 | 2.70 | 2.36 | 2.23 |
| Down Beta | -0.41 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 1.46 | 1.88 | 1.79 |
| Up Capture | 103% | 128% | 246% | 291% | 386% | 477% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 15 | 26 | 59 | 127 | 377 |
| Down Capture | 483% | 242% | 251% | 199% | 175% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 28 | 38 | 66 | 124 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 34.4% | 48.6% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 33.7% | 15.4% | 1.68 | 57.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 58.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | -28.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.1% | 42.2% | -0.33 | 32.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 11.4% | 48.1% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 17.4% | 0.59 | 59.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 57.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 40.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 25.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 6.2% | 51.5% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 61.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 53.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | -2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 45.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 15.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/21/2026 | -5.6% | -6.9% | |
| 1/20/2026 | 2.2% | -4.2% | 1.4% |
| 10/15/2025 | -5.6% | -7.5% | -6.6% |
| 7/16/2025 | 3.1% | 2.2% | 12.1% |
| 4/15/2025 | -0.0% | 1.5% | 14.2% |
| 1/21/2025 | -2.3% | -3.8% | -7.3% |
| 10/15/2024 | 12.4% | 16.3% | 40.2% |
| 7/17/2024 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -9.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| # Negative | 15 | 15 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -4.2% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 17.4% | 30.2% | 40.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.2% | -23.1% | -9.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/16/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/16/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/19/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Capacity Growth | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Capacity Growth | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 2.70 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Actual: 2.70 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Customer Experience Investment | 1.00 Bil | Higher New | Actual: 0 for 2025 | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hart, Brett J | President | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 106.45 | 19,000 | 2,022,569 | 28,170,980 | Form |
| 2 | Kirby, J Scott | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 107.86 | 120,000 | 12,943,800 | 71,895,798 | Form |
| 3 | Gebo, Kate | EVP HR and Labor Relations | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 97.59 | 29,953 | 2,923,203 | 4,440,091 | Form |
| 4 | Gebo, Kate | EVP HR and Labor Relations | See Footnote | Sell | 8142025 | 97.81 | 6,343 | 620,415 | 6,759,327 | Form |
| 5 | Harford, Barney | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 97.76 | 9,000 | 879,862 | 7,821,000 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.