Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
Market Price (4/5/2026): $162.38 | Market Cap: $10.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
Market Price (4/5/2026): $162.38Market Cap: $10.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.6% | Key risksTXRH key risks include pressure on operating margins from [1] significant commodity inflation, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.6% |
| Key risksTXRH key risks include pressure on operating margins from [1] significant commodity inflation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Q4 2025 Earnings Miss and Margin Pressure.
Texas Roadhouse reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.28 for the fourth quarter of 2025, missing analyst estimates of $1.54 by $0.26. Quarterly revenue of $1.482 billion also fell short of expectations by approximately $44 million. This performance included a 26.1% decrease in diluted EPS and a 15.6% decline in restaurant margin dollars to $204.8 million, primarily attributed to a 9.5% commodity inflation and the impact of one less week in the quarter compared to the prior year.
2. Persistent High Commodity and Labor Cost Inflation.
The company continues to face significant inflationary pressures, with commodity costs, particularly beef, increasing by 9.5% in Q4 2025. Management has projected ongoing commodity inflation of approximately 7% and wage and other labor inflation of 3% to 4% for the full fiscal year 2026. Although Texas Roadhouse plans to implement a menu price increase of around 1.9% in early April 2026, these elevated input costs are expected to continue pressuring restaurant-level margins.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.4% change in TXRH stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 165.27 | 162.98 | -1.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,834 | 5,878 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.5% | 6.9% | -7.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.1 | 26.6 | 5.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 66 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXRH | -1.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 23.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.4% | 20.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.1% change in TXRH stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 164.76 | 162.98 | -1.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,671 | 5,878 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.7% | 6.9% | -10.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.0 | 26.6 | 6.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 66 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXRH | -1.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 22.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.6% | 25.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.6% change in TXRH stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 164.01 | 162.98 | -0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,373 | 5,878 | 9.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.1% | 6.9% | -14.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.2 | 26.6 | 5.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 66 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXRH | -0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 45.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.2% | 48.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.5% change in TXRH stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.85 | 162.98 | 58.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,015 | 5,878 | 46.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.7% | 6.9% | 2.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.5 | 26.6 | 4.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 66 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 58.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 43.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 47.9% | 45.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TXRH Return | 16% | 4% | 37% | 50% | -7% | -2% | 127% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -12% | 31% | 41% | -3% | -1% | 55% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TXRH Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 37% | 58% | 57% | 47% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TXRH Max Drawdown | -5% | -21% | 0% | -5% | -15% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -32% | -7% | -23% | -21% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, EAT, BLMN, CAKE, BJRI. See TXRH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TXRH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 210 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 517 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DRI, EAT, BLMN, CAKE, BJRI
In The Past
Texas Roadhouse's stock fell -34.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/3/2021. A -34.9% loss requires a 53.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Texas Roadhouse is like an Olive Garden for steaks and American comfort food.
Texas Roadhouse is like a more casual, high-volume Outback Steakhouse.
Texas Roadhouse is like a smaller, steak-focused Darden Restaurants.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Casual Dining Restaurant Services: Texas Roadhouse offers a full casual dining experience, serving a variety of food and beverages through its company-owned restaurants operating under names like Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers.
- Restaurant Franchising: The company licenses its established restaurant brands and operational model to independent operators, allowing them to open and run franchised locations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) primarily sells to individuals who dine at its casual dining restaurants. Its major customer categories include:
- Families: Many customers are families looking for a casual dining experience suitable for all ages, often including children.
- Adults/Couples: A significant portion of customers are adults and couples seeking a relaxed meal out, whether for a weeknight dinner or a special occasion.
- Groups of Friends: The restaurants often cater to groups of friends gathering for a meal and socializing in a lively atmosphere.
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Jerry Morgan, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Vice Chairman
Jerry Morgan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Texas Roadhouse in March 2021, succeeding founder Kent Taylor. He also assumed the role of Executive Vice Chairman in August 2025. Morgan joined Texas Roadhouse in 1997 as a Managing Partner and has over 35 years of experience in the foodservice industry. Prior to his tenure at Texas Roadhouse, he gained experience at Bennigan's and Burger King, and early in his career, partnered with his uncle to acquire and manage two Burger King locations in Waco, Texas. He previously served as President of Texas Roadhouse from December 2020 to January 2023.
Mike Lenihan, Chief Financial Officer
Mike Lenihan was named Chief Financial Officer of Texas Roadhouse, effective December 3, 2025. He brings nearly 30 years of finance experience, with 22 years specifically in the restaurant industry. Before joining Texas Roadhouse, Lenihan served as Chief Financial Officer at CKE Restaurants, Inc. From 2003 through 2023, he held various leadership positions at YUM! Brands Inc.
Christopher C. Colson, Chief Business and Administrative Officer
Christopher C. Colson was appointed Chief Business and Administrative Officer in August 2025. He joined Texas Roadhouse in 2005 as Senior Counsel and has held roles including Associate General Counsel, Corporate Secretary (appointed August 2019), and General Counsel (appointed March 2021). From 2009 to 2019, he served as the Executive Director of the Global Development Group. Prior to Texas Roadhouse, Colson worked for Yum! Brands, Inc. from 2000 to 2003 and then at Frost Brown Todd LLC, where he served as outside counsel for Texas Roadhouse's initial public offering in 2004.
Lloyd Paul Marshall, Chief Growth Officer
Lloyd Paul Marshall has served as Chief Growth Officer of Texas Roadhouse since August 2025. In this capacity, he leads the Bubba's 33 concept and is responsible for overseeing the construction, design, real estate, development, and facilities functions across all of the company's concepts.
Keith Humpich, Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer
Keith Humpich was promoted to Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer following his successful service as interim Chief Financial Officer.
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Here are the key risks to Texas Roadhouse (TXRH):- Inflation and Cost Pressures (especially beef and labor costs): Texas Roadhouse faces significant challenges from rising food costs, particularly beef, which constitutes a substantial portion of its commodity basket. The company has experienced and continues to anticipate commodity inflation, making it difficult to maintain profit margins if these costs cannot be fully offset by pricing or operational efficiencies. Additionally, increasing labor costs, including rising wages and staffing pressures, pose a continuous threat to restaurant margins.
- Competitive Landscape: The casual dining sector in which Texas Roadhouse operates is highly competitive. The company faces ongoing pressure from numerous other casual dining chains, as well as the growing influence of fast-casual and quick-service restaurants, and meal delivery services. Competitors may attract customers through promotions, new menu items, or aggressive pricing strategies.
- Economic Downturns and Shifting Consumer Preferences: Economic instability, including inflationary pressures and potential consumer sentiment shifts, can impact discretionary spending on dining out. A prolonged period of economic stress could lead to reduced customer traffic and lower sales for Texas Roadhouse. Furthermore, evolving consumer preferences, such as a growing trend towards healthier eating or plant-based diets, could also pose a long-term challenge to its core menu offerings.
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One clear emerging threat to Texas Roadhouse is the proliferation and growing sophistication of **ghost kitchens (also known as dark kitchens or virtual restaurants)**.
Ghost kitchens are food preparation facilities that operate solely for delivery or takeout, without a traditional dine-in restaurant space. They leverage online ordering platforms and third-party delivery services to reach customers. This business model has seen significant investment and growth, particularly accelerated by changing consumer habits and technological advancements in food delivery.
This trend poses a threat to traditional casual dining establishments like Texas Roadhouse in several ways:
- Lower Overhead and Cost Advantage: Ghost kitchens operate with significantly lower overhead costs, as they eliminate the need for prime real estate, front-of-house staff, and extensive dining room facilities. This allows them to potentially offer more competitive pricing for delivered meals or achieve higher profit margins.
- Increased Competition for At-Home Dining Occasions: As consumers increasingly opt for convenience, ghost kitchens offer a highly optimized solution for restaurant-quality food delivered directly to their homes. This competes directly with Texas Roadhouse's takeout and delivery services, and can also divert potential dine-in customers who prioritize convenience.
- Flexibility and Specialization: Ghost kitchens can quickly launch and adapt new virtual brands tailored to specific cuisines, dietary trends, or meal times without the significant investment required for a full-service restaurant. This allows for rapid market response and the emergence of highly specialized competitors (e.g., virtual steakhouses) that can challenge Texas Roadhouse's core offerings in the delivery space.
- Erosion of the Dine-In Value Proposition: If the quality, variety, and convenience of delivered meals from ghost kitchens continue to improve, it could diminish the perceived unique value or necessity of the full sit-down dining experience for some consumers, especially for more routine meal occasions.
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The primary addressable market for Texas Roadhouse's main products and services is the full-service restaurant market in the United States.
The United States full-service restaurant market was valued at approximately USD 362.15 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow to approximately USD 685.11 billion by 2031, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.07% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2031.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of strategic expansion, optimized existing operations, and menu enhancements.
Here are 5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- New Restaurant Openings and Unit Growth: Texas Roadhouse continues to expand its footprint by opening new company-owned and franchised restaurants across its brands, including Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers. The company anticipates opening approximately 35 new company-owned restaurants in 2026, in addition to 10 new franchise locations (6 international Texas Roadhouses and 4 domestic Jaggers). This consistent unit growth directly contributes to increased overall revenue.
- Growth in Customer Traffic: The company consistently focuses on attracting more guests to its restaurants. Texas Roadhouse has a strong track record of positive traffic growth, which contributes significantly to comparable restaurant sales. Strategies such as maintaining its value proposition and local marketing efforts are key to sustaining this traffic.
- Strategic Menu Pricing: Texas Roadhouse plans to implement disciplined menu price increases to help offset commodity and labor inflation while aiming to maintain its value perception. For instance, a 1.9% menu price increase is planned for the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. These price adjustments are expected to contribute to a higher average check and, consequently, revenue growth.
- Expansion of To-Go Business: The to-go segment continues to be a robust and growing part of Texas Roadhouse's sales mix. This channel represented approximately 13.8% of average weekly sales in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company's ongoing efforts to enhance execution in this area are expected to drive continued growth in off-premise sales.
- Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Guest Experience through Technology: Texas Roadhouse is investing in technology upgrades, including the rollout of digital kitchen systems and upgraded guest management systems across its restaurants. These improvements are designed to streamline operations, enhance service efficiency, and improve the overall guest experience, which can lead to increased customer satisfaction, repeat visits, and higher average unit volumes. Additionally, innovations like self-pay options at tables are being implemented to further improve the customer journey.
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Share Repurchases
- Texas Roadhouse repurchased $150.0 million of common stock in 2025.
- The company executed $120 million in buybacks under its recent program, resulting in the retirement of approximately 1.06% of its shares (as of March 2026).
- As of February 19, 2025, the Board authorized a stock repurchase program for up to $500 million of common stock, which replaced a previous $300 million program approved on March 17, 2022.
Share Issuance
- No information is available regarding large-scale share issuances for capital raising purposes during the specified period.
Inbound Investments
- No information is available regarding large inbound investments made by third-parties, such as strategic partners or private equity firms, during the specified period.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, the company's capital allocation included $107.5 million for franchise acquisitions.
- At the beginning of the 2026 fiscal year, Texas Roadhouse acquired five domestic franchise restaurants for approximately $72 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $388.0 million in 2025.
- The company anticipates approximately $400 million in total capital expenditures for 2026.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes opening new restaurants, with 28 new restaurants opened in 2025, and plans for approximately 35 company restaurant openings in 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,822 |
| Op Inc LTM | 369 |
| FCF LTM | 245 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 218 |
| CFO LTM | 516 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 444 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 14.7 |
| P/E | 18.9 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 49.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Roadhouse | 5,013 | 4,332 | 3,763 | 3,254 | |
| Bubba's 33 | 298 | 247 | 212 | 174 | |
| Other | 32 | 26 | 14 | 11 | |
| Royalties and franchise fees | 31 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 18 |
| Restaurant and other sales | 2,380 | ||||
| Total | 5,373 | 4,632 | 4,015 | 3,464 | 2,398 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Roadhouse | 865 | ||||
| Bubba's 33 | 46 | ||||
| Royalties and franchise fees | 31 | ||||
| Other | 4 | ||||
| Impairment and closure, net | -1 | ||||
| Pre-opening | -28 | ||||
| Depreciation and amortization | -178 | ||||
| General and administrative | -223 | ||||
| Total | 517 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Roadhouse | 2,489 | 2,290 | 2,015 | 1,875 | |
| Other | 447 | 271 | 309 | 457 | |
| Bubba's 33 | 255 | 232 | 202 | 180 | |
| Total | 3,191 | 2,793 | 2,526 | 2,512 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $162.98 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/05/2004 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $176.83 | $174.14 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.8% | -6.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.3% | 27.8% |
| Downside Capture | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Upside Capture | 44.30 | 45.08 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.3% | 44.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| Up Beta | 0.30 | 0.80 | -0.16 | 0.35 | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| Down Beta | 1.24 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| Up Capture | -73% | 16% | 63% | 51% | 34% | 33% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 31 | 60 | 121 | 376 |
| Down Capture | 54% | 67% | 51% | 55% | 65% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 66 | 131 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXRH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | -2.0% | 28.2% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.1% | 23.7% | 0.31 | 47.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 45.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 16.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 45.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 17.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXRH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 12.8% | 30.0% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 53.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 38.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 19.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXRH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 16.5% | 35.3% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 21.9% | 0.50 | 52.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 49.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | -0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 44.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | -2.0% | 1.0% | -6.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.6% | -6.5% | -9.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 4.8% | 9.8% | 13.3% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.4% | 3.7% | -0.6% |
| 10/24/2024 | 3.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% |
| 7/25/2024 | 2.0% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 4.5% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -1.9% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 11.2% | 25.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -7.6% | -9.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | 8.2% | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Effective Income Tax Rate | 14.0% | 14.5% | 15.0% | -3.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 15.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Store Week Growth | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Commodity Inflation | 0.07 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.07 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Wage and Other Labor Inflation | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 400.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Commodity Inflation | 0.06 | 20.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.05 for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Effective Income Tax Rate | 14.5% | -3.3% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 15.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Store Week Growth | 5.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Wage and Other Labor Inflation | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 400.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Store Week Growth | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Actual: 5.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Commodity Inflation | 0.07 | 16.7% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 0.06 for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Wage and Other Labor Inflation | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | -12.5% | -0.5% | Lower New | Actual: 0.04 for 2025 |
| 2026 Effective Income Tax Rate | 15.0% | 3.4% | 0.5% | Higher New | Actual: 14.5% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 400.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 400.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carroll, Hugh J | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 167.27 | 1,000 | 167,270 | 310,119 | Form | |
| 2 | Moore, Gregory N | Moore Family Trust | Sell | 12052025 | 170.00 | 1,400 | 238,000 | 5,465,500 | Form | |
| 3 | Mujica, Hernan E | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 172.40 | 2,189 | 377,384 | 3,026,137 | Form |
| 4 | Tobin, Regina A | PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 173.53 | 3,153 | 547,140 | 2,648,241 | Form |
| 5 | Moore, Gregory N | Moore Family Trust | Sell | 8202025 | 173.06 | 3,000 | 519,180 | 5,979,223 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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