Tearsheet

Twilio (TWLO)


Market Price (11/11/2025): $130.81 | Market Cap: $20.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Twilio (TWLO)


Market Price (11/11/2025): $130.81
Market Cap: $20.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 156x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 298x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more.
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 156x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 298x
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

TWLO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining why Twilio's (TWLO) stock moved by 1.2% between July 31, 2025, and November 11, 2025: 1. Twilio reported strong second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, exceeding expectations with a 13% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.23 billion.

The company also reported a 26% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP income from operations, reaching $221 million, and subsequently raised its full-year 2025 organic revenue growth target to 9%-10% and free cash flow target to $875-$900 million. 2. Twilio was included in the S&P MidCap 400 index on August 15, 2025, which led to a surge in its stock price.

The company's induction into this key market index boosted investor confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TWLO Return244%-22%-81%55%42%21%33%
Peers Return86%5%-46%48%-0%8%70%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TWLO Win Rate67%33%17%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate63%62%37%60%48%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TWLO Max Drawdown-27%-27%-84%-6%-30%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-25%-58%-9%-24%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDB, VRSN, OKTA, AKAM, WIX. See TWLO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/10/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTWLOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven937.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven52 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven182 days120 days

Compare to MDB, VRSN, OKTA, AKAM, WIX


In The Past

Twilio's stock fell -90.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/18/2021. A -90.4% loss requires a 937.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Twilio (TWLO)

Better Bets than Twilio (TWLO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TWLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-4.1%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.2%-2.2%-3.5%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.4%-3.4%-3.9%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.5%-0.5%-1.3%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
10.8%10.8%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-4.1%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.2%-2.2%-3.5%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.4%-3.4%-3.9%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.5%-0.5%-1.3%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
10.8%10.8%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Twilio

Financials

TWLOMDBVRSNOKTAAKAMWIXMedian
NameTwilio MongoDB VeriSign Okta Akamai T.Wix.com  
Mkt Price130.61373.89247.6585.7387.12131.35130.98
Mkt Cap20.030.323.115.012.57.317.5
Rev LTM4,8962,2181,6272,7634,1331,8692,491
Op Inc LTM128-1651,10083637144136
FCF LTM7832401,005838718550751
FCF 3Y Avg545145892565740322555
CFO LTM8402701,0338531,496559847
CFO 3Y Avg6011589255851,454365593

Growth & Margins

TWLOMDBVRSNOKTAAKAMWIXMedian
NameTwilio MongoDB VeriSign Okta Akamai T.Wix.com  
Rev Chg LTM12.8%21.9%5.5%12.7%4.2%13.0%12.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.4%27.2%5.2%20.1%4.8%11.7%11.1%
Rev Chg Q14.7%23.7%7.3%12.7%5.0%12.4%12.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.5%5.4%1.8%3.1%1.2%3.0%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM2.6%-7.5%67.6%3.0%15.4%7.7%5.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-4.5%-13.8%67.5%-12.3%16.8%1.4%-1.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%0.7%-0.3%2.1%0.0%0.6%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM17.2%12.2%63.5%30.9%36.2%29.9%30.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.2%8.0%59.6%23.2%36.8%21.2%22.2%
FCF/Rev LTM16.0%10.8%61.8%30.3%17.4%29.4%23.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.9%7.3%57.4%22.4%18.7%18.4%18.6%

Valuation

TWLOMDBVRSNOKTAAKAMWIXMedian
NameTwilio MongoDB VeriSign Okta Akamai T.Wix.com  
Mkt Cap20.030.323.115.012.57.317.5
P/S4.113.714.25.43.03.94.8
P/EBIT156.2-415.620.677.118.237.028.8
P/E297.5-385.628.589.524.744.236.3
P/CFO23.8112.322.417.68.413.120.0
Total Yield0.3%-0.3%3.8%1.1%4.1%2.3%1.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.4%0.8%4.1%3.6%5.4%3.9%4.0%
D/E0.10.00.10.10.40.10.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.10.1-0.10.3-0.0-0.0

Returns

TWLOMDBVRSNOKTAAKAMWIXMedian
NameTwilio MongoDB VeriSign Okta Akamai T.Wix.com  
1M Rtn21.9%18.9%-5.0%-4.0%19.0%-2.1%8.4%
3M Rtn41.3%86.0%-7.1%-3.1%23.4%13.8%18.6%
6M Rtn17.5%95.1%-10.9%-31.0%10.6%-26.9%-0.2%
12M Rtn41.5%28.9%35.7%11.7%-2.5%-23.9%20.3%
3Y Rtn136.3%112.5%29.4%57.7%-6.7%54.5%56.1%
1M Excs Rtn17.7%14.6%-9.3%-8.3%14.7%-6.4%4.1%
3M Excs Rtn31.2%73.9%-11.8%-10.0%15.1%6.0%10.5%
6M Excs Rtn0.6%78.2%-27.8%-47.9%-6.3%-43.8%-17.1%
12M Excs Rtn29.4%17.8%18.2%-3.3%-32.0%-36.5%7.3%
3Y Excs Rtn16.2%54.1%-45.5%-12.7%-79.2%-20.2%-16.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Twilio Communications (Communications)3,8593,5502,411  
Twilio Segment (Segment)295276   
Other  105  
Software  326  
Single segment   1,7621,134
Total4,1543,8262,8421,7621,134


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Twilio Communications (Communications)842    
Acquisition and divestiture related expenses-6    
Payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation-13    
Charitable contributions-17    
Loss on net assets divested-32    
Twilio Segment (Segment)-72    
Restructuring costs-166    
Amortization of acquired intangibles-192    
Corporate costs not allocated to segments-237    
Impairment of long-lived assets-321    
Stock-based compensation-663    
Total-877    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,326,252
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-33.9%
Average Daily Volume2,876,725
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.20
Basic Shares Quantity153,119,639
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/202519.5%  
8/7/2025-19.4%-17.6%-10.9%
5/1/20252.3%7.5%22.2%
1/23/202520.1%30.8%4.1%
10/30/202414.3%28.0%48.1%
8/1/202411.7%7.7%11.5%
5/7/2024-7.5%-1.8%-9.5%
2/14/2024-15.4%-21.8%-17.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1189
# Negative131615
Median Positive7.7%14.5%14.5%
Median Negative-9.4%-11.7%-14.3%
Max Positive39.6%53.1%60.7%
Max Negative-34.6%-22.4%-34.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Viggiano AidanChief Financial Officer10142025Sell115.008,035924,02514,906,070Form