Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $0 | Market Cap: $-Investor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $0Market Cap: $-Sector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 183x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 54x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 266x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 183x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 54x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 266x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Tesla (TSLA) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Profitability Miss and Negative Free Cash Flow.
Tesla reported a non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33 for fiscal Q2 2026, significantly missing Wall Street's consensus estimates of $0.53 to $0.55 per share and representing an 18% decline year-over-year. Despite record revenue of $28.24 billion, which surpassed expectations by 26% year-over-year, the company's GAAP operating income fell 57% to $398 million, compressing the operating margin to 1.4% from 4.1% a year prior. Furthermore, Tesla recorded a negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, marking its first cash-burning quarter since early 2024.
2. Soaring Capital Expenditures on Future Ventures.
A primary driver of the negative free cash flow was a substantial increase in capital expenditures, which surged 142% to $5.8 billion in fiscal Q2 2026. Tesla has reaffirmed its plans to allocate over $25 billion to capital expenditures in fiscal year 2026, an increase from a previous $20 billion target, with further increases expected over the next two to three years. These significant investments are primarily directed towards developing AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, areas that currently do not generate meaningful revenue, raising investor concerns about short-term profitability and the company's valuation.
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Tesla (TSLA) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Profitability Miss and Negative Free Cash Flow.
Tesla reported a non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33 for fiscal Q2 2026, significantly missing Wall Street's consensus estimates of $0.53 to $0.55 per share and representing an 18% decline year-over-year. Despite record revenue of $28.24 billion, which surpassed expectations by 26% year-over-year, the company's GAAP operating income fell 57% to $398 million, compressing the operating margin to 1.4% from 4.1% a year prior. Furthermore, Tesla recorded a negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, marking its first cash-burning quarter since early 2024.
2. Soaring Capital Expenditures on Future Ventures.
A primary driver of the negative free cash flow was a substantial increase in capital expenditures, which surged 142% to $5.8 billion in fiscal Q2 2026. Tesla has reaffirmed its plans to allocate over $25 billion to capital expenditures in fiscal year 2026, an increase from a previous $20 billion target, with further increases expected over the next two to three years. These significant investments are primarily directed towards developing AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, areas that currently do not generate meaningful revenue, raising investor concerns about short-term profitability and the company's valuation.
3. Declining Automotive Gross Margins and Regulatory Credits Amid Increased Competition.
Tesla's automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, declined sequentially to 16.3% in fiscal Q2 2026 from 19.2% in fiscal Q1 2026. Contributing to this pressure was a 67% year-over-year decrease in automotive regulatory credit revenue, which fell to $146 million in fiscal Q2 2026. The company faces intensifying competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly from rivals like China's BYD, and its U.S. EV market share has declined from nearly 80% in 2019 to around 43.9% in 2025. The growing number of EV models (over 100 in 2026) has led to increased price competition, further impacting margins.
4. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Softening EV Demand.
Broader macroeconomic factors have contributed to a challenging environment for the auto industry. Sustained high interest rates, averaging around 7%, and elevated fuel costs are dampening consumer demand for new vehicles. U.S. light-vehicle sales are projected to decrease by 3% in 2026 due to fading pre-buy demand and ongoing affordability pressures. Additionally, the dissolution of the $7,500 EV tax credit has further impacted consumer incentives, leading to a cautious outlook among auto dealers and generally softer consumer demand.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.8% change in TSLA stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 371.75 | 313.03 | -15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 94,827 | 103,619 | 9.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 3.7% | -8.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 316.6 | 266.4 | -15.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,231 | 3,237 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 63.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.4% | 70.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.4% change in TSLA stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 449.72 | 313.03 | -30.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,633 | 103,619 | 8.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 3.7% | -30.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 285.7 | 266.4 | -6.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,227 | 3,237 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -30.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 63.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.2% | 70.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.5% change in TSLA stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 317.66 | 313.03 | -1.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,724 | 103,619 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.4% | 3.7% | -42.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 167.4 | 266.4 | 59.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,218 | 3,237 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 59.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 71.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.6% change in TSLA stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 278.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 261.77 | 313.03 | 19.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 86,035 | 103,619 | 20.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.7% | 3.7% | -73.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 70.3 | 266.4 | 278.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,166 | 3,237 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 19.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 59.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 31.8% | 77.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSLA Return | 50% | -65% | 102% | 63% | 11% | -29% | 36% |
| Peers Return | 82% | -56% | -1% | -18% | 36% | -18% | -27% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSLA Win Rate | 67% | 17% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 57% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSLA Max Drawdown | -36% | -73% | -33% | -43% | -48% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -66% | -52% | -46% | -40% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GM, F, RIVN, LCID, RUN. See TSLA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 788 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -38.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 62.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 788 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 369 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -38.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 62.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a global company headquartered in Austin, Texas, primarily focused on sustainable energy solutions through its electric vehicle and energy generation and storage businesses. Operating internationally, Tesla aims to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
The company's core business is divided into two main segments. The Automotive segment designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells a range of electric vehicles, including sedans and sport utility vehicles. This segment also provides a comprehensive ecosystem around its vehicles, including financing, a global Supercharger network for charging, maintenance services, vehicle insurance, and the sale of automotive regulatory credits. Its primary customers are individual consumers for vehicle purchases, financing, and related services, as well as third-party customers for specific products.
The Energy Generation and Storage segment focuses on developing, manufacturing, installing, and selling solar energy generation and energy storage products. This includes solar panels for energy generation and battery storage solutions like Powerwall and Megapack for various applications. Tesla provides related services, installations, and financing options for these products. This segment serves a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients, as well as utilities, across its global markets.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Tesla (TSLA):
- It's like Apple for electric vehicles.
- Think of it as Amazon for cars and home energy.
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- Electric Vehicles: Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells sedans and sport utility vehicles.
- Automotive Regulatory Credits: The company sells automotive regulatory credits to other manufacturers.
- Vehicle Services & Financing: Tesla provides non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, vehicle insurance, purchase financing, and leasing services.
- Solar Energy Systems: Tesla designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases solar energy generation products.
- Energy Storage Systems: The company designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases energy storage products.
- Energy Product Services: Tesla offers service, repairs, and various financing options for its solar and energy storage customers.
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Tesla (TSLA) sells primarily to individuals for its automotive products, though its energy segment serves both individuals and various types of organizations. Based on the company description, here are the major categories of customers it serves:
- Individual Consumers: This category includes individuals who purchase or lease Tesla's electric vehicles (sedans and SUVs) for personal use. It also covers residential customers who acquire Tesla's solar energy generation products (solar panels) and energy storage systems (e.g., Powerwall) for their homes.
- Commercial and Industrial Businesses: This category encompasses various businesses, from commercial enterprises to large industrial operations, that purchase Tesla's energy storage products (such as Powerpack and Megapack) and solar solutions for their facilities. While less explicitly detailed for vehicles, some businesses may also acquire Tesla vehicles for their corporate fleets.
- Utility Companies: Electric utility providers form a distinct customer category for Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, particularly for large-scale energy storage projects (e.g., Megapack installations) designed to support grid stability, integrate renewable energy sources, and enhance overall power management.
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Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer
Elon Musk is the CEO and a Director of Tesla. He co-founded Zip2, an online business directory, which was sold to Compaq in 1999. He also co-founded X.com, which merged to form PayPal, later acquired by eBay in 2002. Musk became an early investor in Tesla in 2004 and assumed leadership as CEO and product architect in 2008. His other ventures include founding SpaceX, The Boring Company, X Corp (formerly Twitter), Neuralink, and xAI. He was also the primary financial backer of SolarCity, which Tesla acquired in 2016.
Vaibhav Taneja, Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja serves as Tesla's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer. He joined Tesla in 2017 as Assistant Corporate Controller and steadily rose through the ranks, becoming Corporate Controller, Chief Accounting Officer, and then CFO in August 2023. Prior to joining Tesla, he was the Corporate Controller at SolarCity, a solar energy company acquired by Tesla in 2016. Taneja also spent 17 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in both India and the United States.
Tom Zhu, Senior Vice President, Automotive
Tom Zhu is the Senior Vice President of Automotive at Tesla, overseeing global automotive operations, including assembly plants and sales. He joined Tesla in 2014, initially leading the charging network development in China, and later served as the General Manager for Tesla in China. Zhu was instrumental in the rapid construction of Gigafactory Shanghai. Before his tenure at Tesla, he co-founded Kaibo Engineering Group Corp. and worked as a project manager, advising Chinese contractors on infrastructure projects in Africa.
Lars Moravy, Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy holds the position of Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla. He joined the company in 2010. His roles at Tesla have included Director, Chassis Dynamics Engineering, and Senior Director, Chassis Dynamics and Vehicle Test Engineering. Moravy previously worked as a Suspension Design Engineer III, Chassis Design for Honda R&D. He leads a substantial team responsible for all aspects of Tesla vehicle hardware design, testing, validation, development, manufacturing, and supporting engineering tools.
Ashok Elluswamy, Vice President of AI
Ashok Elluswamy is Tesla's Vice President of AI and leads the company's Autopilot software team. He was the first engineer hired for the Autopilot team in 2014. Elluswamy holds a Master of Science degree in Robotic Systems Development from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor's degree in Electronics and Communication Engineering from the College of Engineering, Guindy. His prior experience includes working as a Software Engineer at WABCO Vehicle Control Systems and a research internship at Volkswagen Electronic Research Lab, where he contributed to autonomous driving projects.
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Here are the key risks to Tesla's business:
- Intensifying Competition and Margin Erosion: Tesla faces significant challenges from intensifying competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly from established automakers and new entrants from China, such as BYD. This heightened competition has led to price cuts, declining market share, and reduced profitability for Tesla's core automotive business. For instance, Tesla reported significant declines in revenue and net income in Q1 2025, with revenue decreasing 9% year-over-year and net income falling 71%, largely attributed to reduced vehicle deliveries and lower average selling prices due to increased competition. Tesla's market share in the U.S. declined to 43.5% in Q1 2025 from 60% in 2020, and European sales also experienced a significant downturn. The company's operational margin dropped to 8.2% in Q4 2023 from 16% in Q4 2022, a decrease driven in part by intense competition and significant price cuts impacting profit margins.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Safety Concerns related to Autonomous Driving (FSD/Autopilot): Tesla's advanced driver-assistance systems, Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD), are under ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) due to numerous incidents involving crashes, traffic violations, and concerns about their safety and advertised capabilities. These investigations cover millions of vehicles and have led to recalls, such as nearly 2 million U.S. vehicles in December 2023 following an NHTSA investigation into approximately 1,000 crashes involving its Autopilot system. There are concerns about FSD's ability to detect and respond appropriately in challenging environmental conditions, and reports of vehicles running red lights or steering against traffic. Legal and regulatory actions could lead to mandatory safety retrofits, litigation costs, reputational damage, and delays in the deployment of robotaxi services, which are crucial for Tesla's future valuation and growth narrative.
- Dependence on Elon Musk and Associated Reputational/Governance Risks: The success and public perception of Tesla are closely tied to its CEO, Elon Musk. His personal actions, political involvement, and divided attention across multiple ventures are increasingly seen as a liability for the company. Reports suggest that Musk's controversial statements and political alignment have alienated a significant portion of Tesla's core customer base, impacting sales in key markets like Europe and China. Critics also highlight concerns about Tesla's corporate governance structure, with the board largely composed of individuals with deep ties to Musk, raising questions about independent oversight. The company's reliance on Musk for strategic direction and investor confidence poses a significant risk if his focus is diverted or his reputation continues to negatively impact the brand.
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1. Intensified competition from a growing number of legacy automakers and new entrants releasing a wide range of competitive electric vehicles. This directly challenges Tesla's market share, pricing power, and perceived technological lead in a rapidly maturing EV market.
2. The increasing adoption of Tesla's North American Charging Standard (NACS) by other major automakers, which, while beneficial for the EV industry, erodes Tesla's proprietary Supercharger network advantage, a key differentiator and competitive moat.
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Addressable Markets for Tesla's Main Products and Services
Automotive Segment (Electric Vehicles)
The global electric vehicle (EV) market was estimated at approximately USD 1,328.08 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6,523.97 billion by 2030, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 32.5% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate values the global EV market at USD 988.70 billion in 2025, with a projection to increase to approximately USD 2,763.17 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 10.82% from 2026 to 2035. Global electric car sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024. In February 2026, global EV sales reached 1.1 million units.Energy Generation and Storage Segment
Solar Energy
The global solar energy market was valued at approximately USD 0.4 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.6 trillion by 2034, with a CAGR of 15.2% from 2025 to 2034. Another source states the global solar power market size was valued at USD 273 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 436.36 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6% during the forecast period. Global solar installations reached nearly 600 GW in 2024. The installed base of the solar energy market is expected to grow from 2.35 Terawatt in 2025 to 7.25 Terawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 19.91% over 2026-2031.Energy Storage Systems
The global energy storage systems market was estimated at USD 668.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 5.12 trillion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 21.7% from 2025 to 2034. Alternatively, the global energy storage systems market size was estimated at USD 222,787.5 million in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 512,407.9 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2030. The global battery energy storage system (BESS) market alone is projected to grow from USD 50.81 billion in 2025 to USD 105.96 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 15.8%.AI Analysis | Feedback
For Tesla (TSLA), the following are expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Energy Generation and Storage Products: Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, encompassing products like Megapack and Powerwall, is consistently cited as a significant growth area. The company has reported record deployments and a robust backlog for these products, with management anticipating increasing deployments. This segment is expected to contribute a growing portion of high-margin revenue.
- Growth of Full Self-Driving (FSD) Software Subscriptions: Tesla is actively transitioning its Full Self-Driving system to a subscription-based model. This strategic shift aims to generate recurring, high-margin software revenue by leveraging its substantial installed vehicle base and advancing its autonomous driving capabilities.
- Launch and Scaling of Robotaxi Service (Cybercab): The introduction and expansion of a dedicated Robotaxi service, including the Cybercab, are considered major catalysts for future revenue. Production of the Cybercab is anticipated to begin in April 2026, with expectations for it to become a high-volume model over the longer term. This service will be closely tied to the monetization of Tesla's autonomy software.
- Introduction of a More Affordable Electric Vehicle: Tesla plans to launch a more affordable electric vehicle, potentially priced around $25,000. This new model is expected to significantly broaden the company's customer base globally and drive substantial vehicle sales volume, especially in markets with increasing competition and demand for lower-priced EVs.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Tesla has not made significant company-led share repurchases in the last 3-5 years, with buyback yields indicating minimal to no activity in this area.
Share Issuance
- Tesla's shares outstanding have generally increased between 2021 and 2025, from approximately 3.386 billion in December 2021 to 3.528 billion in December 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, Tesla revealed plans to invest approximately $2 billion into xAI, an artificial intelligence company led by Elon Musk.
- This investment is intended to enhance Tesla's capability to develop and deploy AI products and services.
Capital Expenditures
- Tesla's capital expenditures have shown substantial growth, with approximately $6.514 billion in 2021, $7.163 billion in 2022, $8.899 billion in 2023, and peaking at $11.342 billion in 2024.
- For 2025, capital expenditures are reported around $8.5 billion.
- Future capital expenditures are anticipated to exceed $20 billion in 2026, with a primary focus on expanding manufacturing facilities for new products like Cybertruck and Semi, developing battery cell technologies, scaling AI initiatives and infrastructure (including the Dojo supercomputer), and ramping up Optimus robot production.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 38.6 |
| Rev LTM | 54,574 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1,908 |
| FCF LTM | -986 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,840 |
| CFO LTM | 9,189 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,404 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -22.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -19.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -27.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 38.6 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | -2.9 |
| P/EBIT | -3.4 |
| P/E | 1.7 |
| P/CFO | 1.2 |
| Total Yield | -3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -14.0% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -76.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $313.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,012.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/29/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -36.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $402.83 | $414.74 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 56.5% | 46.4% |
| Downside Capture | 393.40 | 234.07 |
| Upside Capture | 247.05 | 193.64 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 69.0% | 60.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.47 | 2.43 | 2.05 | 1.93 | 2.10 | 2.24 |
| Up Beta | 2.83 | 2.33 | 1.68 | 1.93 | 2.23 | 2.21 |
| Down Beta | 2.57 | 2.64 | 2.47 | 2.19 | 2.45 | 2.22 |
| Up Capture | 242% | 271% | 198% | 178% | 278% | 2138% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 35 | 64 | 133 | 380 |
| Down Capture | 221% | 218% | 234% | 176% | 152% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 28 | 61 | 118 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -5.9% | 47.1% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -2.9% | 19.3% | -0.27 | 72.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 60.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 21.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | -7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 4.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.4% | 42.9% | -1.29 | 36.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 9.4% | 59.5% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.0% | 24.0% | 0.17 | 76.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 58.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 32.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.7% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 33.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 36.8% | 59.3% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.5% | 22.1% | 0.48 | 63.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 30.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 19.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/25/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/22/2026 | -14.5% | ||
| 4/22/2026 | -3.6% | -3.8% | 7.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.5% | -5.9% | -6.7% |
| 10/22/2025 | 2.3% | 5.1% | -10.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | -8.2% | -4.1% | -3.7% |
| 4/22/2025 | 5.4% | 22.7% | 40.6% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.9% | -2.8% | -24.7% |
| 10/23/2024 | 21.9% | 20.5% | 59.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 15.5% | 24.5% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -5.9% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 21.9% | 26.7% | 59.0% |
| Max Negative | -14.5% | -14.9% | -27.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/22/2026 | -14.5% | ||
| 4/22/2026 | -3.6% | -3.8% | 7.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.5% | -5.9% | -6.7% |
| 10/22/2025 | 2.3% | 5.1% | -10.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | -8.2% | -4.1% | -3.7% |
| 4/22/2025 | 5.4% | 22.7% | 40.6% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.9% | -2.8% | -24.7% |
| 10/23/2024 | 21.9% | 20.5% | 59.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | -12.3% | -9.6% | -9.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | 12.1% | 26.7% | 24.5% |
| 1/24/2024 | -12.1% | -9.9% | -7.6% |
| 10/18/2023 | -9.3% | -12.5% | -3.7% |
| 7/19/2023 | -9.7% | -9.2% | -24.7% |
| 4/19/2023 | -9.7% | -14.9% | -2.0% |
| 1/25/2023 | 11.0% | 25.6% | 36.3% |
| 10/19/2022 | -6.6% | 1.2% | -17.5% |
| 7/20/2022 | 9.8% | 11.0% | 22.4% |
| 4/20/2022 | 3.2% | -9.8% | -27.4% |
| 1/26/2022 | -11.6% | -3.4% | -13.6% |
| 10/20/2021 | 3.3% | 19.9% | 26.6% |
| 7/26/2021 | -2.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% |
| 4/2/2021 | -0.9% | 2.4% | 6.2% |
| 1/27/2021 | -3.3% | -1.1% | -21.8% |
| 10/21/2020 | 0.7% | -3.9% | 18.1% |
| 7/22/2020 | -5.0% | -5.9% | 25.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 15.5% | 24.5% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -5.9% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 21.9% | 26.7% | 59.0% |
| Max Negative | -14.5% | -14.9% | -27.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/07/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/08/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/29/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 402.20 | 2,606 | 1,047,924 | 8,864,020 | Form |
| 2 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 450.00 | 3,000 | 1,350,000 | 8,147,925 | Form |
| 3 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 378.11 | 26,409 | 9,985,390 | 18,299,931 | Form | |
| 4 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 359.33 | 25,809 | 9,273,888 | 12,166,836 | Form | |
| 5 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 397.03 | 2,264 | 899,077 | 7,188,842 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 402.20 | 2,606 | 1,047,924 | 8,864,020 | Form |
| 2 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 450.00 | 3,000 | 1,350,000 | 8,147,925 | Form |
| 3 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 378.11 | 26,409 | 9,985,390 | 18,299,931 | Form | |
| 4 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 359.33 | 25,809 | 9,273,888 | 12,166,836 | Form | |
| 5 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 397.03 | 2,264 | 899,077 | 7,188,842 | Form |
| 6 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 415.56 | 25,731 | 10,692,814 | 8,173,680 | Form | |
| 7 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 1062026 | 445.40 | 60,000 | 26,723,781 | 257,007,505 | Form | |
| 8 | Musk, Kimbal | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 450.66 | 56,820 | 25,606,501 | 627,145,216 | Form | |
| 9 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 443.93 | 2,637 | 1,170,635 | 6,107,104 | Form |
| 10 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 9172025 | 422.68 | 60,000 | 25,360,800 | 269,260,263 | Form | |
| 11 | Musk, Elon | CEO | Trust | Buy | 9152025 | 389.28 | 2,568,732 | 999,959,042 | 160,914,364,612 | Form |
| 12 | Zhu, Xiaotong | SVP, APAC and | See Footnote | Sell | 9122025 | 363.75 | 20,000 | 7,275,100 | 17,314,647 | Form |
| 13 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 352.38 | 2,606 | 918,137 | 3,473,097 | Form |
| 14 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 8282025 | 350.29 | 120,000 | 42,034,320 | 244,160,201 | Form | |
| 15 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 300.00 | 2,000 | 600,000 | 1,777,050 | Form |
| 16 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 292.89 | 4,000 | 1,171,545 | 1,734,911 | Form |
| 17 | Zhu, Xiaotong | SVP, APAC | Direct | Sell | 6162025 | 323.81 | 15,000 | 4,857,105 | 21,889,272 | Form |
| 18 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092025 | 285.71 | 2,564 | 732,573 | 1,692,433 | Form |
| 19 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 350.00 | 1,000 | 350,000 | 682,325 | Form |
| 20 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 341.02 | 6,000 | 2,046,092 | 664,809 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 25, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Prime Capital Management Co Ltd | $267.6 Mil | 30.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| Privium Fund Management B.V. | $82.5 Mil | 17.2% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $166.8 Mil | 17.1% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $429.8 Mil | 13.7% | 18 | Hold | 13F |
| Bamco Inc /Ny/ | $4.4 Bil | 13.4% | 326 | Hold | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| Straight Path Wealth Management | $44.0 Mil | 11.8% | 129 | Hold | 13F |
| KTF Investments, LLC | $60.1 Mil | 10.3% | 91 | Hold | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $1.4 Bil | 9.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Boundless Plain Holdings Ltd | $25.0 Mil | 8.2% | 22 | ADD +49.1% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $50.2 Mil | 7.0% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund | $74.1 Mil | 6.5% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $15.5 Mil | 6.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $20.3 Mil | 5.9% | 9 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $69.4 Mil | 5.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $138.1 Mil | 4.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $35.9 Mil | 2.9% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $15.5 Mil | 6.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Howard Hughes Medical Institute | $15.3 Mil | 3.7% | 31 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $13.6 Mil | 4.6% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $12.1 Mil | 4.0% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Once Capital Management, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 3.2% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Defender Capital, LLC. | $9.6 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Westwood Wealth Management | $7.9 Mil | 3.1% | 42 | New | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $7.4 Mil | 3.0% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| Boundless Plain Holdings Ltd | $25.0 Mil | 8.2% | 22 | ADD +49.1% | 13F |
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caxton Associates LLP | $975.1 Mil | 19.3% | 750 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $297.7 Mil | 28.4% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $205.4 Mil | 12.7% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Panoramic Hills Capital Ltd | $161.9 Mil | 56.8% | 3 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Pureheart Capital Pte Ltd. | $129.5 Mil | 30.6% | 3 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Elequin Capital, LP | $119.7 Mil | 15.6% | 392 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| O'Neil Global Advisors, Inc. | $45.7 Mil | 15.7% | 45 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $24.9 Mil | 7.0% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hel Ved Capital Management Ltd | $14.2 Mil | 4.9% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $30.2 Mil | 3.3% | 37 | TRIM -77.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $20.3 Mil | 5.9% | 9 | TRIM -11.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bamco Inc /Ny/ | $4.4 Bil | 13.4% | 326 | Hold | 13F |
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $1.4 Bil | 9.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $429.8 Mil | 13.7% | 18 | Hold | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| Prime Capital Management Co Ltd | $267.6 Mil | 30.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $166.8 Mil | 17.1% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $138.1 Mil | 4.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| Privium Fund Management B.V. | $82.5 Mil | 17.2% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund | $74.1 Mil | 6.5% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $69.4 Mil | 5.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| KTF Investments, LLC | $60.1 Mil | 10.3% | 91 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $50.2 Mil | 7.0% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Straight Path Wealth Management | $44.0 Mil | 11.8% | 129 | Hold | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $35.9 Mil | 2.9% | 11 | New | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $30.2 Mil | 3.3% | 37 | TRIM -77.1% | 13F |
TSLA Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Tesla is funding an ambitious pivot to AI and robotics using its profitable automotive business. While demand for its vehicles is strong, with record Q2 deliveries, the company is deliberately entering a multi-year period of intense investment, guiding to over $25 billion in 2026 capital expenditures and negative free cash flow. The investment story now hinges entirely on executing this high-risk transition.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: Transactional Hardware with a Growing Services Layer(Vehicle Deliveries × ASP) + (Energy GWh Deployed × ASP) + (FSD Subscriptions × Price) Scaling high-margin, recurring software (FSD) and service (Robotaxi) revenues across the large and growing installed base of hardware.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the transition to an AI-driven model is progressing, funded by a strong core business.
- The company exited Q2 with its largest vehicle order backlog since 2023.
- The paid customer base for Full Self-Driving software has reached nearly 1.5 million.
- Over 380,000 unsupervised Robotaxi miles have been driven as of the Q2 call.
- Capital expenditures are guided to exceed $25 billion in 2026 to fund AI initiatives.
PRIMARY RISK
The company is spending aggressively on unproven, novel products like humanoid robots, risking massive capital destruction if timelines slip or the technology fails to scale safely.
- Free cash flow was negative in Q2 and is expected to worsen in the second half of 2026.
- Operating expenses grew 41.5% year-over-year, far outpacing 11.8% revenue growth.
- Management acknowledges the production scaling challenge for new products is 'very substantial'.
- A recent news report noted France opposes EU approval of FSD software over safety concerns.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Deliveries | Over 480,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 2026. - Accelerating | Vehicle deliveries showed strong sequential acceleration in the second quarter, recovering from the first quarter and setting a new Q2 record. Management cited broad-based sequential growth across all major geographic regions. |
| FSD Paid Customers | Nearly 1.5 million paid customers globally as of Q2 2026. - Stable | The base of paid FSD customers is expanding at a steady pace, reaching nearly 1.5 million paid customers globally. Management states that FSD is a significant demand driver for its vehicles. |
| Energy Storage Deployed | 13.5 GWh (Q2 2026) | Measures the volume growth of the energy storage business, which is becoming an increasingly important revenue contributor. |
| Unsupervised Robotaxi Miles Driven | more than 380,000 (as of Q2 2026 earnings call) | Indicates the real-world progress and data accumulation for the company's autonomous ride-hailing service, a critical future growth vector. |
Re-accelerating Demand vs. Unprecedented Investment
BULL VIEW
Record Q2 deliveries and the largest backlog since 2023 show the core business is strong enough to fund the transition to a dominant AI and robotics company.
CORE TENSION
Can strong auto demand, with over 480,000 Q2 deliveries, fund the AI pivot before the massive cash burn, which drove a -16.0% stock reaction, exhausts investor patience?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence shows both forces intensifying. Demand is confirmed strong, but management doubled down on its aggressive, cash-consuming investment plan for the next 2-3 years.
BEAR VIEW
The pivot is a high-risk gamble, with negative free cash flow and over $25 billion in 2026 capex destroying value that should be returned to shareholders.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
2026 | Ongoing Operating Expense Growth Watch: Management expects operating expenses, largely driven by R&D, to continue to grow in 2026. |
7/30/2026 | Rivian Earnings Report Watch: Peer Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/20/2026 | Automotive Margin Pressure Watch: Further sequential decline in automotive gross margin excluding credits, or negative commentary on pricing and cost headwinds. |
10/21/2026 | Ford Motor Earnings Watch: Peer Ford Motor (F) is scheduled to report earnings. |
second half of 2026 | Increased Capital Expenditures Watch: Management expects capital expenditures to increase further in the second half of 2026. |
No set date | European FSD Approval Delays Watch: Official statements from EU or member-state regulators regarding the FSD approval process or timeline. |
No set date | Slower Robotaxi Expansion Watch: Pace of new city launches for Robotaxi service versus management's stated goal of weekly updates on X. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-22 | Q2 Earnings and Negative Stock Reaction Details: Following the Q2 earnings call on July 22, 2026, the stock had a two-day reaction of -16.0% versus a -1.0% move for the S&P 500. | -15.6% $378.93 -> $319.69 |
2026-07-02 | Q2 Production and Deliveries Announced Details: On July 2, 2026, Tesla announced Q2 production of over 450,000 vehicles and deliveries of over 480,000 vehicles. The company also deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage products. | -1.3% $425.30 -> $419.77 |
2026-06-15 | Speculation on Tesla-SpaceX Merger Details: News reports in mid-June cited commentary that a merger between Tesla and SpaceX was a "forgone conclusion," potentially propping up Tesla's stock as investors seek exposure to SpaceX. | -0.4% $406.43 -> $404.66 |
2026-05-05 | Large Tesla Semi Order Reported Details: On May 5, 2026, it was announced that WattEV would deploy 370 Tesla Semis, with delivery of the first 50 units scheduled to start in 2026. | +1.6% $392.51 -> $398.73 |
2026-04-22 | Q1 Earnings Call and Stock Reaction Details: Following the earnings call on July 22, 2026, the stock had a two-day reaction of -16.0% versus a -1.0% move for the S&P 500. | -3.3% $386.42 -> $373.72 |
2026-03-23 | Tesla and SpaceX Announce Chip Fab Details: In March, it was reported that Tesla and SpaceX would build a new chip factory in Texas for AI chip production, causing the stock to rise 3.53% on the day of the news. | +4.1% $367.96 -> $383.03 |
2026-02-03 | SpaceX and xAI Merger Announced Details: Reports in early February noted that a merger between SpaceX and AI startup xAI could pave the way for future integration with Tesla, highlighting a convergence of CEO Elon Musk's ventures. | -3.7% $421.81 -> $406.01 |
2026-01-30 | Company Pivots to AI and Robotics Details: News reports in January highlighted a "profound shift in strategy" as the company announced plans for a $20 billion capital expenditure cycle focused on robots, AI, and related infrastructure. | +1.3% $416.56 -> $421.81 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: TSLA trades at roughly 47% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (3.4x the market), around the 62nd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
GM - General Motors
Value-Focused IncumbentGeneral Motors has 1.8 times Tesla's revenue, offering exposure to the auto industry at a much larger scale and with a broader portfolio of lower-priced models.
F - Ford Motor
Commercial Fleet LeaderFord's dedicated 'Ford Pro' business provides a powerful, integrated ecosystem of vehicles, software, and services specifically for high-value commercial and fleet customers.
An AI and robotics company funding its development of autonomous transport and humanoid labor through its established electric vehicle and energy businesses.
Tesla is leveraging its leadership in real-world AI, developed for its vehicle fleet, to pivot towards a future dominated by autonomous services and robotics. While current financials are driven by vehicle and energy sales, the company's massive capital expenditures are directed at building the manufacturing and compute infrastructure for Robotaxi, the Cybercab, and the Optimus humanoid robot. The investment thesis hinges on the successful and safe scaling of these new, potentially enormous markets.
Rapid expansion of the Robotaxi service to new markets with a continued impeccable safety record; successful production ramp of Cybercab and Optimus; and sustained high-double-digit weekly growth in unsupervised miles driven.
Any notable safety incident involving Robotaxi leading to a regulatory crackdown; significant delays or failures in scaling manufacturing for new products like Optimus; or a stall in the technological progress of FSD, preventing a large-scale unsupervised rollout.
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly vehicle deliveries or margins that do not impact the long-term manufacturing ramp; criticism from advocacy groups without accompanying regulatory action.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful scaling of the Robotaxi service across multiple U.S. markets and the start of production for the purpose-built Cybercab and the Optimus robot.
Automotive
$85.4B TTM (87% of Total)What It Is
This segment designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and leases electric vehicles (Model 3, Y, S, X, Cybertruck, and Semi) directly to consumers and businesses. It also includes revenue from automotive regulatory credits sold to other manufacturers, and a 'services and other' category comprising used vehicle sales, maintenance, paid Supercharging, and insurance.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and commercial fleet owners pay for vehicles, drawn by performance, styling, safety, and a lower cost of ownership. Increasingly, customers are purchasing vehicles for their advanced software and AI capabilities, such as Full Self-Driving (FSD). Other automakers pay for regulatory credits to comply with emissions standards.
Competition
Energy Generation and Storage
$12.4B TTM (13% of Total)What It Is
This segment sells and leases solar energy generation systems (solar panels and Solar Roof) and energy storage products (Powerwall for residential/small commercial, and Megapack for commercial, industrial, and utility-scale customers).
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and utility customers pay for these systems to reduce energy costs, provide backup power, and stabilize the electrical grid. A key emerging driver is the rapid load growth from AI infrastructure, where Megapack helps manage power for data centers.
Competition
Tesla — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automobile Manufacturers Resources |
| MotorTrend |
| Car and Driver |
| The Drive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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