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Cybertruck could add $4.5 billion to Tesla's top-line
Tesla unveiled its first electric pickup truck last dubbed "Cybertruck," featuring a radical design and prices ranging from $40k going up $70k.Tesla's interest in the market is understandable, given that pickup trucks have been a big money maker for auto majors, with GM previously indicating that it garners as much as
$17k in pretax profits from larger pickups , which typically sell for $50k. While the Cybertruck appears to have impressive technology and performance, it remains unclear if traditional truck owners, who are typically very brand loyal, will be lured by the vehicle.Based on our estimates, the vehicle could add over $4.5 billion to the company's revenues by 2025. For perspective, this would be under 20% of the company's 2019 revenues and roughly 55% of estimated Model X and S revenues for this year.
Pickup Truck Revenue, Shipment statistics: Statista
Loyalty Statistics: Strategic Vision, via WSJ
Sizing Up The Potential Of The Cybertruck
Production startup could begin in 2021, & we believe the vehicle could hit the market by 2023
While Tesla has not provided a concrete launch date for the vehicle, it indicated that production startup could begin in late 2021 and we assume that the truck could hit the market by 2023. Tesla has been somewhat circumspect about the prospects of the truck, indicating that its long-term sales could be below the Model S/X (which sell ~100k units a year)We assume that Tesla will garner 1% of the total volumes of the top 5 players combined, with the number growing to 3% by 2025. We assume that the average selling price for the vehicle will be $55kThis would translate into revenues of about $1.5 billion in 2023, growing to about $4.6 billion by 2025.