Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $353.58 | Market Cap: $1.1 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $353.58Market Cap: $1.1 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 209x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 73x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 313x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 209x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 73x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 313x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
| Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tesla (TSLA) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Record Revenue and Deliveries Masked by Significant Profitability Miss.
Tesla reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, comfortably surpassing Wall Street estimates and marking its first significant revenue growth in over a year. The company also achieved record vehicle deliveries of 480,126 units in Q2 2026, a 25% increase year-over-year, which beat analyst consensus by approximately 74,000 vehicles. Despite this strong top-line performance, non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) was $0.33, falling considerably short of analyst expectations ranging from $0.51 to $0.55, representing an 18% year-over-year decline.
2. Aggressive Capital Expenditures and Long-Term Growth Investments Drove Profitability Down.
Tesla entered its "largest investment period," with capital expenditures surging 142% year-over-year to $5.79 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, resulting in a negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion. This substantial spending is allocated to strategic initiatives such as Robotaxi, Optimus humanoid robots, and AI chip manufacturing, with full-year 2026 capital expenditures projected to exceed $25 billion. While these investments are aimed at future growth, they significantly weighed on current quarter profitability.
Show more
Tesla (TSLA) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Record Revenue and Deliveries Masked by Significant Profitability Miss.
Tesla reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, comfortably surpassing Wall Street estimates and marking its first significant revenue growth in over a year. The company also achieved record vehicle deliveries of 480,126 units in Q2 2026, a 25% increase year-over-year, which beat analyst consensus by approximately 74,000 vehicles. Despite this strong top-line performance, non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) was $0.33, falling considerably short of analyst expectations ranging from $0.51 to $0.55, representing an 18% year-over-year decline.
2. Aggressive Capital Expenditures and Long-Term Growth Investments Drove Profitability Down.
Tesla entered its "largest investment period," with capital expenditures surging 142% year-over-year to $5.79 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, resulting in a negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion. This substantial spending is allocated to strategic initiatives such as Robotaxi, Optimus humanoid robots, and AI chip manufacturing, with full-year 2026 capital expenditures projected to exceed $25 billion. While these investments are aimed at future growth, they significantly weighed on current quarter profitability.
3. Compressed Automotive Margins and Declining Regulatory Credit Revenue Impacted Earnings.
Automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, decreased to 16.3% in fiscal Q2 2026, missing Wall Street estimates of 18.4% and down from 19.2% year-over-year. A significant contributing factor to the profitability decline was the sharp drop in regulatory credit revenue, which plummeted by 67% year-over-year to $146 million, a substantial decrease from $439 million in Q2 2025 and less than half of Q1 2026's $380 million. These credits typically represent near-pure profit.
4. Mixed Macroeconomic EV Environment and Intensified Competition.
The broader electric vehicle market continued to face a nuanced environment. While global EV sales were projected for another record year, growth slowed in key markets like China and the U.S. In the U.S., EV sales in fiscal Q2 2026, while showing a 14.7% sequential improvement, still declined 20.5% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of annual declines. Intensified competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturer BYD, which delivered 557,090 fully electric vehicles in Q2 2026 (outpacing Tesla), added pressure on Tesla's market share and pricing power, despite Tesla narrowing the gap.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.6% change in TSLA stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 371.75 | 374.01 | 0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 94,827 | 97,879 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 3.9% | -1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 316.6 | 313.2 | -1.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,231 | 3,234 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 62.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 4.6% | 64.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.8% change in TSLA stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 449.72 | 374.01 | -16.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,633 | 97,879 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 3.9% | -25.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 285.7 | 313.2 | 9.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,227 | 3,234 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -16.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 64.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.3% | 67.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.7% change in TSLA stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 87.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 317.66 | 374.01 | 17.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,724 | 97,879 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.4% | 3.9% | -38.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 167.4 | 313.2 | 87.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,218 | 3,234 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 17.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 59.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.5% | 69.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.9% change in TSLA stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 345.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 261.77 | 374.01 | 42.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 86,035 | 97,879 | 13.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.7% | 3.9% | -71.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 70.3 | 313.2 | 345.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,166 | 3,234 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 42.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 59.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 37.3% | 77.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSLA Return | 50% | -65% | 102% | 63% | 11% | -16% | 61% |
| Peers Return | 82% | -56% | -1% | -18% | 36% | -14% | -23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSLA Win Rate | 67% | 17% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 57% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSLA Max Drawdown | -36% | -73% | -33% | -43% | -48% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -66% | -52% | -46% | -40% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GM, F, RIVN, LCID, RUN. See TSLA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 788 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -38.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 62.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 788 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 369 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -38.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 62.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a global company headquartered in Austin, Texas, primarily focused on sustainable energy solutions through its electric vehicle and energy generation and storage businesses. Operating internationally, Tesla aims to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
The company's core business is divided into two main segments. The Automotive segment designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells a range of electric vehicles, including sedans and sport utility vehicles. This segment also provides a comprehensive ecosystem around its vehicles, including financing, a global Supercharger network for charging, maintenance services, vehicle insurance, and the sale of automotive regulatory credits. Its primary customers are individual consumers for vehicle purchases, financing, and related services, as well as third-party customers for specific products.
The Energy Generation and Storage segment focuses on developing, manufacturing, installing, and selling solar energy generation and energy storage products. This includes solar panels for energy generation and battery storage solutions like Powerwall and Megapack for various applications. Tesla provides related services, installations, and financing options for these products. This segment serves a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients, as well as utilities, across its global markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Tesla (TSLA):
- It's like Apple for electric vehicles.
- Think of it as Amazon for cars and home energy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electric Vehicles: Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells sedans and sport utility vehicles.
- Automotive Regulatory Credits: The company sells automotive regulatory credits to other manufacturers.
- Vehicle Services & Financing: Tesla provides non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, vehicle insurance, purchase financing, and leasing services.
- Solar Energy Systems: Tesla designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases solar energy generation products.
- Energy Storage Systems: The company designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases energy storage products.
- Energy Product Services: Tesla offers service, repairs, and various financing options for its solar and energy storage customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tesla (TSLA) sells primarily to individuals for its automotive products, though its energy segment serves both individuals and various types of organizations. Based on the company description, here are the major categories of customers it serves:
- Individual Consumers: This category includes individuals who purchase or lease Tesla's electric vehicles (sedans and SUVs) for personal use. It also covers residential customers who acquire Tesla's solar energy generation products (solar panels) and energy storage systems (e.g., Powerwall) for their homes.
- Commercial and Industrial Businesses: This category encompasses various businesses, from commercial enterprises to large industrial operations, that purchase Tesla's energy storage products (such as Powerpack and Megapack) and solar solutions for their facilities. While less explicitly detailed for vehicles, some businesses may also acquire Tesla vehicles for their corporate fleets.
- Utility Companies: Electric utility providers form a distinct customer category for Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, particularly for large-scale energy storage projects (e.g., Megapack installations) designed to support grid stability, integrate renewable energy sources, and enhance overall power management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Panasonic Corporation (TYO: 6752)
- LG Energy Solution (KRX: 373220)
- Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) (SZSE: 300750)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (KRX: 005930)
- Aptiv PLC (NYSE: APTV)
- Lear Corporation (NYSE: LEA)
- Infineon Technologies AG (ETR: IFX)
- NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ: NXPI)
- Continental AG (ETR: CON)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer
Elon Musk is the CEO and a Director of Tesla. He co-founded Zip2, an online business directory, which was sold to Compaq in 1999. He also co-founded X.com, which merged to form PayPal, later acquired by eBay in 2002. Musk became an early investor in Tesla in 2004 and assumed leadership as CEO and product architect in 2008. His other ventures include founding SpaceX, The Boring Company, X Corp (formerly Twitter), Neuralink, and xAI. He was also the primary financial backer of SolarCity, which Tesla acquired in 2016.
Vaibhav Taneja, Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja serves as Tesla's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer. He joined Tesla in 2017 as Assistant Corporate Controller and steadily rose through the ranks, becoming Corporate Controller, Chief Accounting Officer, and then CFO in August 2023. Prior to joining Tesla, he was the Corporate Controller at SolarCity, a solar energy company acquired by Tesla in 2016. Taneja also spent 17 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in both India and the United States.
Tom Zhu, Senior Vice President, Automotive
Tom Zhu is the Senior Vice President of Automotive at Tesla, overseeing global automotive operations, including assembly plants and sales. He joined Tesla in 2014, initially leading the charging network development in China, and later served as the General Manager for Tesla in China. Zhu was instrumental in the rapid construction of Gigafactory Shanghai. Before his tenure at Tesla, he co-founded Kaibo Engineering Group Corp. and worked as a project manager, advising Chinese contractors on infrastructure projects in Africa.
Lars Moravy, Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy holds the position of Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla. He joined the company in 2010. His roles at Tesla have included Director, Chassis Dynamics Engineering, and Senior Director, Chassis Dynamics and Vehicle Test Engineering. Moravy previously worked as a Suspension Design Engineer III, Chassis Design for Honda R&D. He leads a substantial team responsible for all aspects of Tesla vehicle hardware design, testing, validation, development, manufacturing, and supporting engineering tools.
Ashok Elluswamy, Vice President of AI
Ashok Elluswamy is Tesla's Vice President of AI and leads the company's Autopilot software team. He was the first engineer hired for the Autopilot team in 2014. Elluswamy holds a Master of Science degree in Robotic Systems Development from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor's degree in Electronics and Communication Engineering from the College of Engineering, Guindy. His prior experience includes working as a Software Engineer at WABCO Vehicle Control Systems and a research internship at Volkswagen Electronic Research Lab, where he contributed to autonomous driving projects.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Tesla's business:
- Intensifying Competition and Margin Erosion: Tesla faces significant challenges from intensifying competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly from established automakers and new entrants from China, such as BYD. This heightened competition has led to price cuts, declining market share, and reduced profitability for Tesla's core automotive business. For instance, Tesla reported significant declines in revenue and net income in Q1 2025, with revenue decreasing 9% year-over-year and net income falling 71%, largely attributed to reduced vehicle deliveries and lower average selling prices due to increased competition. Tesla's market share in the U.S. declined to 43.5% in Q1 2025 from 60% in 2020, and European sales also experienced a significant downturn. The company's operational margin dropped to 8.2% in Q4 2023 from 16% in Q4 2022, a decrease driven in part by intense competition and significant price cuts impacting profit margins.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Safety Concerns related to Autonomous Driving (FSD/Autopilot): Tesla's advanced driver-assistance systems, Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD), are under ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) due to numerous incidents involving crashes, traffic violations, and concerns about their safety and advertised capabilities. These investigations cover millions of vehicles and have led to recalls, such as nearly 2 million U.S. vehicles in December 2023 following an NHTSA investigation into approximately 1,000 crashes involving its Autopilot system. There are concerns about FSD's ability to detect and respond appropriately in challenging environmental conditions, and reports of vehicles running red lights or steering against traffic. Legal and regulatory actions could lead to mandatory safety retrofits, litigation costs, reputational damage, and delays in the deployment of robotaxi services, which are crucial for Tesla's future valuation and growth narrative.
- Dependence on Elon Musk and Associated Reputational/Governance Risks: The success and public perception of Tesla are closely tied to its CEO, Elon Musk. His personal actions, political involvement, and divided attention across multiple ventures are increasingly seen as a liability for the company. Reports suggest that Musk's controversial statements and political alignment have alienated a significant portion of Tesla's core customer base, impacting sales in key markets like Europe and China. Critics also highlight concerns about Tesla's corporate governance structure, with the board largely composed of individuals with deep ties to Musk, raising questions about independent oversight. The company's reliance on Musk for strategic direction and investor confidence poses a significant risk if his focus is diverted or his reputation continues to negatively impact the brand.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Intensified competition from a growing number of legacy automakers and new entrants releasing a wide range of competitive electric vehicles. This directly challenges Tesla's market share, pricing power, and perceived technological lead in a rapidly maturing EV market.
2. The increasing adoption of Tesla's North American Charging Standard (NACS) by other major automakers, which, while beneficial for the EV industry, erodes Tesla's proprietary Supercharger network advantage, a key differentiator and competitive moat.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Tesla's Main Products and Services
Automotive Segment (Electric Vehicles)
The global electric vehicle (EV) market was estimated at approximately USD 1,328.08 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6,523.97 billion by 2030, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 32.5% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate values the global EV market at USD 988.70 billion in 2025, with a projection to increase to approximately USD 2,763.17 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 10.82% from 2026 to 2035. Global electric car sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024. In February 2026, global EV sales reached 1.1 million units.Energy Generation and Storage Segment
Solar Energy
The global solar energy market was valued at approximately USD 0.4 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.6 trillion by 2034, with a CAGR of 15.2% from 2025 to 2034. Another source states the global solar power market size was valued at USD 273 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 436.36 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6% during the forecast period. Global solar installations reached nearly 600 GW in 2024. The installed base of the solar energy market is expected to grow from 2.35 Terawatt in 2025 to 7.25 Terawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 19.91% over 2026-2031.Energy Storage Systems
The global energy storage systems market was estimated at USD 668.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 5.12 trillion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 21.7% from 2025 to 2034. Alternatively, the global energy storage systems market size was estimated at USD 222,787.5 million in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 512,407.9 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2030. The global battery energy storage system (BESS) market alone is projected to grow from USD 50.81 billion in 2025 to USD 105.96 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 15.8%.AI Analysis | Feedback
For Tesla (TSLA), the following are expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Energy Generation and Storage Products: Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, encompassing products like Megapack and Powerwall, is consistently cited as a significant growth area. The company has reported record deployments and a robust backlog for these products, with management anticipating increasing deployments. This segment is expected to contribute a growing portion of high-margin revenue.
- Growth of Full Self-Driving (FSD) Software Subscriptions: Tesla is actively transitioning its Full Self-Driving system to a subscription-based model. This strategic shift aims to generate recurring, high-margin software revenue by leveraging its substantial installed vehicle base and advancing its autonomous driving capabilities.
- Launch and Scaling of Robotaxi Service (Cybercab): The introduction and expansion of a dedicated Robotaxi service, including the Cybercab, are considered major catalysts for future revenue. Production of the Cybercab is anticipated to begin in April 2026, with expectations for it to become a high-volume model over the longer term. This service will be closely tied to the monetization of Tesla's autonomy software.
- Introduction of a More Affordable Electric Vehicle: Tesla plans to launch a more affordable electric vehicle, potentially priced around $25,000. This new model is expected to significantly broaden the company's customer base globally and drive substantial vehicle sales volume, especially in markets with increasing competition and demand for lower-priced EVs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Tesla has not made significant company-led share repurchases in the last 3-5 years, with buyback yields indicating minimal to no activity in this area.
Share Issuance
- Tesla's shares outstanding have generally increased between 2021 and 2025, from approximately 3.386 billion in December 2021 to 3.528 billion in December 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, Tesla revealed plans to invest approximately $2 billion into xAI, an artificial intelligence company led by Elon Musk.
- This investment is intended to enhance Tesla's capability to develop and deploy AI products and services.
Capital Expenditures
- Tesla's capital expenditures have shown substantial growth, with approximately $6.514 billion in 2021, $7.163 billion in 2022, $8.899 billion in 2023, and peaking at $11.342 billion in 2024.
- For 2025, capital expenditures are reported around $8.5 billion.
- Future capital expenditures are anticipated to exceed $20 billion in 2026, with a primary focus on expanding manufacturing facilities for new products like Cybertruck and Semi, developing battery cell technologies, scaling AI initiatives and infrastructure (including the Dojo supercomputer), and ramping up Optimus robot production.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 39.5 |
| Rev LTM | 51,704 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1,908 |
| FCF LTM | -986 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,840 |
| CFO LTM | 8,111 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,132 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -26.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -17.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -27.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 39.5 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/Op Inc | -3.1 |
| P/EBIT | -3.7 |
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/CFO | 1.2 |
| Total Yield | -3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -14.0% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -3.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -68.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $374.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,209.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/29/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $406.50 | $415.68 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -8.0% | -10.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.7% | 44.9% |
| Downside Capture | 343.25 | 215.18 |
| Upside Capture | 252.38 | 184.37 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 69.5% | 60.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.47 | 2.43 | 2.05 | 1.93 | 2.10 | 2.24 |
| Up Beta | 2.83 | 2.33 | 1.68 | 1.93 | 2.23 | 2.21 |
| Down Beta | 2.57 | 2.64 | 2.47 | 2.19 | 2.45 | 2.22 |
| Up Capture | 242% | 271% | 198% | 178% | 278% | 2138% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 35 | 64 | 133 | 380 |
| Down Capture | 221% | 218% | 234% | 176% | 152% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 28 | 61 | 118 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 13.9% | 44.7% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 2.8% | 18.7% | 0.01 | 70.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 60.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 19.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | -6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 4.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 37.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 13.0% | 59.2% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.5% | 23.9% | 0.19 | 76.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 58.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 32.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 33.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 39.0% | 59.1% | 0.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.1% | 0.50 | 63.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 15.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 30.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 19.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/22/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/2/2026 | -7.5% | -4.4% | |
| 4/22/2026 | -3.6% | -3.8% | 7.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.5% | -5.9% | -6.7% |
| 10/22/2025 | 2.3% | 5.1% | -10.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | -8.2% | -4.1% | -3.7% |
| 4/22/2025 | 5.4% | 22.7% | 40.6% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.9% | -2.8% | -24.7% |
| 10/23/2024 | 21.9% | 20.5% | 59.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 15 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 15.5% | 24.5% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -5.9% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 21.9% | 26.7% | 59.0% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -14.9% | -27.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/2/2026 | -7.5% | -4.4% | |
| 4/22/2026 | -3.6% | -3.8% | 7.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.5% | -5.9% | -6.7% |
| 10/22/2025 | 2.3% | 5.1% | -10.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | -8.2% | -4.1% | -3.7% |
| 4/22/2025 | 5.4% | 22.7% | 40.6% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.9% | -2.8% | -24.7% |
| 10/23/2024 | 21.9% | 20.5% | 59.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | -12.3% | -9.6% | -9.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | 12.1% | 26.7% | 24.5% |
| 1/24/2024 | -12.1% | -9.9% | -7.6% |
| 10/18/2023 | -9.3% | -12.5% | -3.7% |
| 7/19/2023 | -9.7% | -9.2% | -24.7% |
| 4/19/2023 | -9.7% | -14.9% | -2.0% |
| 1/25/2023 | 11.0% | 25.6% | 36.3% |
| 10/19/2022 | -6.6% | 1.2% | -17.5% |
| 7/20/2022 | 9.8% | 11.0% | 22.4% |
| 4/20/2022 | 3.2% | -9.8% | -27.4% |
| 1/26/2022 | -11.6% | -3.4% | -13.6% |
| 10/20/2021 | 3.3% | 19.9% | 26.6% |
| 7/26/2021 | -2.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% |
| 4/2/2021 | -0.9% | 2.4% | 6.2% |
| 1/27/2021 | -3.3% | -1.1% | -21.8% |
| 10/21/2020 | 0.7% | -3.9% | 18.1% |
| 7/22/2020 | -5.0% | -5.9% | 25.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 15 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 15.5% | 24.5% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -5.9% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 21.9% | 26.7% | 59.0% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -14.9% | -27.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/07/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/08/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/29/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/29/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 402.20 | 2,606 | 1,047,924 | 8,864,020 | Form |
| 2 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 450.00 | 3,000 | 1,350,000 | 8,147,925 | Form |
| 3 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 378.11 | 26,409 | 9,985,390 | 18,299,931 | Form | |
| 4 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 359.33 | 25,809 | 9,273,888 | 12,166,836 | Form | |
| 5 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 397.03 | 2,264 | 899,077 | 7,188,842 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 402.20 | 2,606 | 1,047,924 | 8,864,020 | Form |
| 2 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 450.00 | 3,000 | 1,350,000 | 8,147,925 | Form |
| 3 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 378.11 | 26,409 | 9,985,390 | 18,299,931 | Form | |
| 4 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 359.33 | 25,809 | 9,273,888 | 12,166,836 | Form | |
| 5 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 397.03 | 2,264 | 899,077 | 7,188,842 | Form |
| 6 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 415.56 | 25,731 | 10,692,814 | 8,173,680 | Form | |
| 7 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 1062026 | 445.40 | 60,000 | 26,723,781 | 257,007,505 | Form | |
| 8 | Musk, Kimbal | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 450.66 | 56,820 | 25,606,501 | 627,145,216 | Form | |
| 9 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 443.93 | 2,637 | 1,170,635 | 6,107,104 | Form |
| 10 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 9172025 | 422.68 | 60,000 | 25,360,800 | 269,260,263 | Form | |
| 11 | Musk, Elon | CEO | Trust | Buy | 9152025 | 389.28 | 2,568,732 | 999,959,042 | 160,914,364,612 | Form |
| 12 | Zhu, Xiaotong | SVP, APAC and | See Footnote | Sell | 9122025 | 363.75 | 20,000 | 7,275,100 | 17,314,647 | Form |
| 13 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 352.38 | 2,606 | 918,137 | 3,473,097 | Form |
| 14 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 8282025 | 350.29 | 120,000 | 42,034,320 | 244,160,201 | Form | |
| 15 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 300.00 | 2,000 | 600,000 | 1,777,050 | Form |
| 16 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 292.89 | 4,000 | 1,171,545 | 1,734,911 | Form |
| 17 | Zhu, Xiaotong | SVP, APAC | Direct | Sell | 6162025 | 323.81 | 15,000 | 4,857,105 | 21,889,272 | Form |
| 18 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092025 | 285.71 | 2,564 | 732,573 | 1,692,433 | Form |
| 19 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 350.00 | 1,000 | 350,000 | 682,325 | Form |
| 20 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 341.02 | 6,000 | 2,046,092 | 664,809 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Prime Capital Management Co Ltd | $267.6 Mil | 30.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| Privium Fund Management B.V. | $82.5 Mil | 17.2% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $166.8 Mil | 17.1% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $429.8 Mil | 13.7% | 18 | Hold | 13F |
| Bamco Inc /Ny/ | $4.4 Bil | 13.4% | 326 | Hold | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| Straight Path Wealth Management | $44.0 Mil | 11.8% | 129 | Hold | 13F |
| KTF Investments, LLC | $60.1 Mil | 10.3% | 91 | Hold | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $1.4 Bil | 9.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Boundless Plain Holdings Ltd | $25.0 Mil | 8.2% | 22 | ADD +49.1% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $50.2 Mil | 7.0% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund | $74.1 Mil | 6.5% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $15.5 Mil | 6.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $20.3 Mil | 5.9% | 9 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $69.4 Mil | 5.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $138.1 Mil | 4.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $35.9 Mil | 2.9% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $15.5 Mil | 6.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Howard Hughes Medical Institute | $15.3 Mil | 3.7% | 31 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $13.6 Mil | 4.6% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $12.1 Mil | 4.0% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Once Capital Management, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 3.2% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Defender Capital, LLC. | $9.6 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Westwood Wealth Management | $7.9 Mil | 3.1% | 42 | New | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $7.4 Mil | 3.0% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| Boundless Plain Holdings Ltd | $25.0 Mil | 8.2% | 22 | ADD +49.1% | 13F |
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caxton Associates LLP | $975.1 Mil | 19.3% | 750 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $297.7 Mil | 28.4% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $205.4 Mil | 12.7% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Panoramic Hills Capital Ltd | $161.9 Mil | 56.8% | 3 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Pureheart Capital Pte Ltd. | $129.5 Mil | 30.6% | 3 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Elequin Capital, LP | $119.7 Mil | 15.6% | 392 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| O'Neil Global Advisors, Inc. | $45.7 Mil | 15.7% | 45 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $24.9 Mil | 7.0% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hel Ved Capital Management Ltd | $14.2 Mil | 4.9% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $30.2 Mil | 3.3% | 37 | TRIM -77.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $20.3 Mil | 5.9% | 9 | TRIM -11.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bamco Inc /Ny/ | $4.4 Bil | 13.4% | 326 | Hold | 13F |
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $1.4 Bil | 9.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $429.8 Mil | 13.7% | 18 | Hold | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| Prime Capital Management Co Ltd | $267.6 Mil | 30.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $166.8 Mil | 17.1% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $138.1 Mil | 4.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| Privium Fund Management B.V. | $82.5 Mil | 17.2% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund | $74.1 Mil | 6.5% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $69.4 Mil | 5.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| KTF Investments, LLC | $60.1 Mil | 10.3% | 91 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $50.2 Mil | 7.0% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Straight Path Wealth Management | $44.0 Mil | 11.8% | 129 | Hold | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $35.9 Mil | 2.9% | 11 | New | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $30.2 Mil | 3.3% | 37 | TRIM -77.1% | 13F |
TSLA Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The core automotive business is strengthening, with Q2 deliveries over 480,000 and the highest Q1 order backlog in two years. This operational health funds a $25 billion+ 2026 investment in autonomy and robotics. Conviction is constructive as this pivot has a clear, funded path, but hinges on hitting key milestones like the planned Q4 release of unsupervised FSD.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Manufacturing & Hardware transitioning to Platform & ServiceVehicle Deliveries x Average Selling Price (ASP) + FSD Subscriptions + Energy Deployments x ASP Gross margin on Full Self-Driving (FSD) software sales and future Robotaxi network fees.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a strengthening core business is funding a high-risk, high-reward transition to a software and services model.
- Paid FSD customers reached nearly 1.3 million as of Q1 2026.
- Latest-quarter revenue growth re-accelerated to 15.8% year-over-year.
- The company reported its highest Q1 order backlog in over two years.
- Capital expenditures are expected to be over $25 billion in 2026 to fund AI initiatives.
PRIMARY RISK
A $25 billion+ 2026 capital plan is causing negative free cash flow and has compressed trailing operating margins to 5.4%, with a mixed record on hitting ambitious timelines.
- Operating expenses grew 36% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth of 2.3%.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 5.4%, down from 15% three years ago.
- Management guided to negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026.
- The company missed its goal of having Robotaxi in half the U.S. by end of 2025.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Deliveries | Over 480,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 2026. - Turning around | Year-over-year trend data for the quarter is not available in the provided sources. |
| FSD Paid Customers | Nearly 1.3 million paid customers globally as of the Q1 2026 earnings call. - Accelerating | The number of paid FSD customers grew from nearly 1.1 million at the end of Q4 2025 to nearly 1.3 million by the Q1 2026 call, representing approximately 180,000 net new paying users in the quarter. The company is transitioning fully to a subscription-based model for FSD. |
| Quarterly Energy Storage Deployed | 13.5 GWh (Q2 2026) | Measures the volume of battery storage products deployed, reflecting demand and production capacity for the Energy segment. |
AI Ambition vs. Near-Term Cash Burn
BULL VIEW
The core auto business, with its 19.1% gross margin and strong backlog, generates enough cash to fund the transition to a higher-margin AI services model before competitors can catch up.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating FSD adoption and a strong auto backlog offset the negative free cash flow and margin pressure from the 2026 investment cycle?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest data favors the bull case, as re-accelerating revenue (15.8% YoY) and improving latest-quarter gross margins (21.1%) suggest the funding engine for the transition is strengthening.
BEAR VIEW
The $25 billion+ capex plan is a value-destructive bet on unproven technology, while the core auto business faces new headwinds from subsidy removals and intensifying competition.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
late July, August time frame | Optimus Production Start Watch: The company assumes the start of production for the Optimus robot will be in the late July or August timeframe. |
10/20/2026 | Capital Expenditure Cash Burn Watch: Q3 free cash flow result and any update to the full-year capital expenditure guidance. |
10/20/2026 | Operating Margin Disappointment Watch: Reported Q3 operating margin and the growth rate of operating expenses versus revenue. |
10/20/2026 | Legacy Auto Competitive Data Watch: GM and Ford commentary on market share, EV progress, and profitability, which could reframe Tesla's competitive position. |
10/21/2026 | Peer Ford Motor Earnings Watch: Peer Ford Motor (F) is scheduled to report earnings. |
in the fourth quarter | Unsupervised FSD Customer Release Watch: Management expects to release unsupervised FSD to the customer fleet. |
later this year | Megapack 3 Production Start Watch: Management expects to begin production of Megapack 3. |
middle of this year | Optimus V3 Unveiling Watch: Management expects to unveil the Optimus V3 design. |
this year | Research Chip Fab Construction Watch: Management expects to start construction of the research chip fab on the Giga Texas campus. |
No set date | Adverse Regulatory Action Watch: Announcements from NHTSA, DOJ, or SEC regarding investigations, recalls, or restrictions on FSD or Robotaxi deployment. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-21 | Robotaxi Service Expands to Florida Details: Just ahead of its Q2 earnings report, Tesla expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa, Florida, as it works to scale the autonomous ride-hailing business. | +2.5% $369.57 -> $378.93 |
2026-07-21 | Robotaxi Service Launched in June 2025 Details: The company launched its Robotaxi service, an autonomous ride-hailing platform, in June 2025. This is a foundational element of its current AI-focused, service-driven business model. | +2.5% $369.57 -> $378.93 |
2026-07-02 | Q2 Production and Deliveries Reported Details: Tesla announced it produced over 450,000 vehicles and delivered over 480,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2026. | -1.3% $425.30 -> $419.77 |
2026-05-05 | Major Tesla Semi Order Announced Details: WattEV announced an award for 370 Tesla Semi Class 8 electric trucks, the largest single electric truck deployment in California, with first deliveries scheduled to start in 2026. | +1.6% $392.51 -> $398.73 |
2026-04-22 | Q1 Earnings and Capex Update Details: Tesla released Q1 2026 results and confirmed a 'very significant increase in capital expenditures.' The stock reacted negatively, falling -3.0% over two days versus a 1.0% gain for the S&P 500. | -3.3% $386.42 -> $373.72 |
2026-03-23 | SpaceX and Tesla Announce Chip Factory Details: Tesla and SpaceX announced plans to jointly build a new semiconductor plant in Texas for AI chip production, causing the stock to rise 3.5%. | +4.1% $367.96 -> $383.03 |
2026-01-30 | Company Pivots to AI and Robotics Details: On its Q4 2025 earnings call, management announced a 'profound shift in strategy' with a planned capital expenditure of over $20 billion for 2026 to fund investments in AI and robotics. | +1.3% $416.56 -> $421.81 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: TSLA trades at roughly 41% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.8x the market), around the 14th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
GM - General Motors
Legacy Scale & ProfitabilityGeneral Motors has 1.9 times Tesla's revenue, providing immense scale and an established distribution network. It is funding its EV transition from a profitable legacy business.
F - Ford Motor
Commercial Fleet LeaderFord's established 'Ford Pro' division offers an integrated ecosystem for commercial customers, a market where it has a mature, scaled offering and deep relationships.
Tesla is a real-world AI company leveraging its vehicle and energy hardware fleet as a platform to deploy and scale autonomous services and robotics.
Tesla is aggressively investing to transition from a hardware-centric model to one dominated by AI-driven services. The core thesis is that its massive fleet of sensor-equipped vehicles provides a data advantage to solve full autonomy, unlocking high-margin revenue from Robotaxi and FSD subscriptions. The parallel development of the Optimus robot represents a significant expansion of this AI ambition into general-purpose labor.
Regulatory approvals for unsupervised FSD in new major markets; rapid scaling of the Robotaxi fleet and service area; demonstration of commercially useful tasks by Optimus robots in Tesla's factories.
Significant delays or setbacks in achieving unsupervised FSD; major safety incidents involving the Robotaxi fleet; competitors achieving comparable autonomous performance; inability to scale manufacturing of new products like Cybercab or Optimus cost-effectively.
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly vehicle delivery numbers; competitor announcements of new EV models without a clear path to scalable autonomy.
Repricing Catalyst
The scaling of the Robotaxi service and the removal of safety drivers in more cities, which would validate the technology and provide a clearer path to monetization of the autonomous fleet.
Automotive
$82.1B TTM (87% of Total)What It Is
This segment sells and leases electric vehicles (Model 3, Y, S, X, Cybertruck, Semi) directly to consumers and commercial clients. It also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits to other manufacturers, and from 'Services and other' which includes used vehicle sales, maintenance, paid Supercharging, insurance, and merchandise.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and businesses pay for vehicles, software upgrades like FSD (Supervised), and services. The company states its value proposition is based on performance, styling, safety, and a lower cost of ownership. Other automakers pay for regulatory credits to comply with emissions standards.
Competition
Energy Generation and Storage
$12.8B TTM (13% of Total)What It Is
This segment sells, leases, and finances solar energy generation systems (solar panels, Solar Roof) and battery energy storage products (Powerwall for residential, Megapack for commercial/utility) to residential, commercial, and utility customers.
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and utility customers pay for energy products to store energy and reduce reliance on the grid. The company states that as AI infrastructure drives rapid load growth, its Megapack product helps increase utilization of existing grid capacity.
Competition
Tesla — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automobile Manufacturers Resources |
| MotorTrend |
| Car and Driver |
| The Drive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.