Travelers Companies (TRV)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $379.48 | Market Cap: $79.9 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Travelers Companies (TRV)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $379.48Market Cap: $79.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 14% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -111% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3%, Dist 3Y High is -4.3% | Key risksTRV key risks include [1] substantial losses from catastrophic events exacerbated by climate change, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -111% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3%, Dist 3Y High is -4.3% |
| Key risksTRV key risks include [1] substantial losses from catastrophic events exacerbated by climate change, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Travelers Companies (TRV) stock has gained about 30% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Core Income Growth. Travelers reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on July 17, 2026, for the quarter ended June 2026, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $10.04, significantly exceeding the consensus analyst estimate of $4.94 by 103.24%. Core income for the quarter also increased by 54% year-over-year, reaching $2.16 billion, or $10.04 per diluted share. This substantial beat against expectations served as a primary catalyst for the stock's upward trajectory.
2. Strong Underwriting Performance and Favorable Reserve Development. The company's underlying operational strength was demonstrated by a consolidated combined ratio that improved to 83.6% in fiscal Q2 2026, marking a 6.7-point reduction from 90.3% in the prior-year quarter. This improvement was primarily driven by $1.678 billion of underlying underwriting income pre-tax, alongside lower catastrophe losses of $518 million pre-tax and $578 million pre-tax of net favorable prior-year reserve development across all three business segments.
Show more
Travelers Companies (TRV) stock has gained about 30% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Core Income Growth. Travelers reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on July 17, 2026, for the quarter ended June 2026, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $10.04, significantly exceeding the consensus analyst estimate of $4.94 by 103.24%. Core income for the quarter also increased by 54% year-over-year, reaching $2.16 billion, or $10.04 per diluted share. This substantial beat against expectations served as a primary catalyst for the stock's upward trajectory.
2. Strong Underwriting Performance and Favorable Reserve Development. The company's underlying operational strength was demonstrated by a consolidated combined ratio that improved to 83.6% in fiscal Q2 2026, marking a 6.7-point reduction from 90.3% in the prior-year quarter. This improvement was primarily driven by $1.678 billion of underlying underwriting income pre-tax, alongside lower catastrophe losses of $518 million pre-tax and $578 million pre-tax of net favorable prior-year reserve development across all three business segments.
3. Increased Net Investment Income and Shareholder Returns. Travelers' investment portfolio contributed positively, with net investment income rising 14% to $883 million after-tax in fiscal Q2 2026, reflecting the benefit of higher yields. Concurrently, the company demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder value by returning over $1.5 billion of capital to shareholders in fiscal Q2 2026, which included $1.3 billion in share repurchases and $266 million in dividends. Furthermore, Travelers increased its quarterly dividend per share by 14% in April 2026.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.8% change in TRV stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 289.68 | 378.92 | 30.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 48,942 | 48,979 | 0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.5% | 17.0% | 9.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.2 | 9.6 | 17.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 215 | 210 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRV | 30.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.3% | -24.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.4% | 23.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.2% change in TRV stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 305.20 | 378.92 | 24.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 48,828 | 48,979 | 0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 17.0% | 31.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.7 | 9.6 | -10.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 220 | 210 | 4.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRV | 24.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | -10.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.3% | 34.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.3% change in TRV stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 266.35 | 378.92 | 42.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,843 | 48,979 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.0% | 17.0% | 54.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.5 | 9.6 | -16.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 226 | 210 | 7.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRV | 42.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.9% | -4.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.8% | 36.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 148.8% change in TRV stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 194.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 152.27 | 378.92 | 148.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 38,753 | 48,979 | 26.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.8% | 17.0% | 194.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.7 | 9.6 | -38.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 230 | 210 | 9.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 148.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRV | 148.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 22.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 70.0% | 49.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRV Return | 14% | 22% | 4% | 29% | 22% | 32% | 201% |
| Peers Return | 29% | 17% | 10% | 33% | 14% | 6% | 169% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRV Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 75% | 58% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 62% | 62% | 65% | 60% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRV Max Drawdown | -10% | -19% | -17% | -12% | -12% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -19% | -23% | -11% | -16% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PGR, CB, ALL, HIG, AIG. See TRV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TRV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 264 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 384 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Travelers Companies's stock fell -3.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 3.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | TRV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 384 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Travelers Companies's stock fell -3.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 3.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Travelers Companies (TRV)
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) is a major insurance provider offering a comprehensive range of commercial and personal property and casualty (P&C) insurance products and services. Operating in the United States and internationally, Travelers helps businesses, government entities, associations, and individuals manage various risks. The company structures its operations into three primary segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance.
Its Business Insurance segment caters to a diverse clientele, from small to large enterprises, as well as specialized industries like commercial trucking and agriculture. This segment provides a broad spectrum of coverages, including workers' compensation, commercial automobile and property, general liability, professional indemnity, marine, aviation, and even specialized products like kidnap and ransom insurance. The Bond & Specialty Insurance segment focuses on more specialized needs, offering surety, fidelity, and management and professional liability coverages, along with related risk management services.
The Personal Insurance segment addresses the insurance needs of individuals, primarily offering essential property and casualty products like automobile and homeowners insurance. Across all segments, Travelers primarily distributes its products and services through a network of independent agencies and brokers, as well as wholesale agents and program managers for its business clients. Essentially, Travelers plays a crucial role in safeguarding both the operations of diverse businesses and the personal assets of individuals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Think of them as a combination of State Farm for your personal car and home, and a specialized insurer like Chubb for businesses of all sizes and unique risks.
They're like Geico or Progressive, but they don't just insure individuals; they also cover everything from a small shop's general liability to a multinational corporation's workers' compensation and specialized bonds.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Commercial Property & Casualty Insurance: A comprehensive suite of policies protecting businesses against risks such as property damage, general liability, workers' compensation, commercial auto, professional indemnity, and specialized coverages.
- Surety & Fidelity Bonds: Guarantees the fulfillment of contractual obligations for businesses (surety) and provides protection against losses caused by employee dishonesty (fidelity).
- Management & Professional Liability Insurance: Provides coverage for corporate directors, officers, and professionals against liabilities arising from their roles and services.
- Personal Automobile Insurance: Offers coverage for individuals' personal vehicles against damage, theft, and liability claims.
- Homeowners Insurance: Protects individuals' residences and personal belongings from damage or loss, and includes personal liability coverage.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)
The Travelers Companies, Inc. sells primarily to other companies and organizations through its Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance segments, though it also serves individuals through its Personal Insurance segment. Due to the diverse nature of its insurance offerings and broad customer base, specific names of major customer companies are not disclosed in the provided information. Instead, Travelers serves various categories of businesses and organizations, which include:
- Small businesses
- Mid-sized businesses
- Large companies
- Government units
- Associations
- Businesses in the commercial trucking industry
- Businesses in agricultural sectors
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alan D. Schnitzer Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Alan D. Schnitzer became Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Travelers in 2017 and 2015, respectively. He joined Travelers in 2007 as Vice Chairman and Chief Legal Officer. Prior to that, he was a partner at the law firm of Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, where he advised corporate clients on various transactions and corporate governance matters, and also served as Travelers' lead outside counsel. He previously held key leadership roles at Travelers, including President of the company's Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance segments, and led the Financial, Professional and International Insurance segment and the Business and International Insurance segment.
Daniel S. Frey Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Daniel S. Frey is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Travelers. He joined Travelers in 2003 and has served in various financial management capacities, including Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for the Personal Insurance segment and Chief Financial Officer for the Claim and Field Management organizations. Before joining Travelers, Frey was the Chief Financial Officer for Spalding Sports Worldwide, where he contributed to improving the company's performance and successfully managed the simultaneous sale of three product lines to three different buyers. He also held several finance positions at Duracell International, Inc. and started his career in public accounting at Deloitte & Touche.
Avrohom J. Kess Vice Chairman and Chief Legal Officer
Avrohom J. Kess serves as Vice Chairman and Chief Legal Officer of The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Gregory C. Toczydlowski Executive Vice President and President, Business Insurance
Gregory C. Toczydlowski holds the position of Executive Vice President and President, Business Insurance at Travelers.
Michael F. Klein Executive Vice President and President, Personal Insurance
Michael F. Klein is the Executive Vice President and President, Personal Insurance for Travelers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Clear emerging threats for The Travelers Companies (TRV) include:
- The rise of direct-to-consumer digital insurance platforms (insurtechs) that leverage technology (e.g., AI, advanced data analytics, mobile-first applications) to offer insurance products directly to customers, often providing a more streamlined and personalized experience. This model bypasses the independent agencies and brokers that Travelers heavily relies on for distributing its personal and commercial insurance products, similar to how Netflix disrupted Blockbuster's traditional distribution.
- The increasing adoption of embedded insurance solutions, where insurance products are seamlessly integrated into the purchase or use of other goods and services (e.g., car insurance offered at the point of sale for a new vehicle, or home insurance bundled with smart home systems). This approach captures customers at an earlier stage in their buying journey, potentially before they interact with traditional insurance channels like independent agents and brokers, thereby challenging Travelers' established customer acquisition model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Market Sizes for Travelers Companies' Main Products and Services
- Commercial Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance
- The global P&C insurance market was valued at USD 2.4 trillion in 2024. North America held a 30.2% share of this market in 2023. The U.S. property and casualty insurance market is valued at USD 1.10 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.33 trillion by 2030.
- **U.S. Workers' Compensation Insurance:** The market size of the Workers' Compensation Insurance industry in the United States is $51.2 billion in 2026. Direct premiums written in the U.S. workers' compensation market totaled $57.48 billion in 2024.
- **U.S. Commercial Auto Insurance:** The U.S. commercial auto insurance market was valued at USD 40.45 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to exceed USD 90.41 billion by 2033. U.S. commercial automobile carriers saw direct premiums written increase to $72.18 billion in 2025.
- **Global Commercial Property Insurance:** The global commercial property insurance market size was worth around USD 298 billion in 2023 and is predicted to grow to around USD 621 billion by 2032.
- **Global Marine Insurance:** The global marine insurance market size was valued at USD 35.0 billion in 2024. Another estimate places the global marine insurance premiums at USD 39.92 billion in 2024.
- **Global Aviation Insurance:** The global aviation insurance market size was valued at USD 5.32 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 9.66 billion by 2035. North America held a dominant share of the aviation insurance market with 44.90% in 2025.
- Surety & Fidelity Bonds
- **U.S. Surety Bond Market:** The U.S. surety industry writes approximately $7-9 billion in premiums annually in 2026. The U.S. is the largest surety market in the world, accounting for well over half of the estimated $14 billion of bonds that were issued globally in 2021. The global surety market was estimated at USD 19.14 billion in 2024.
- Management and Professional Liability Insurance
- The global professional liability insurance market size is estimated at USD 51.415 billion in 2026 and is expected to rise to USD 69.227 billion by 2035. North America leads this market, with the United States accounting for more than 11 million active policies in 2024.
- Personal Automobile Insurance
- **U.S. Personal Auto Insurance:** Personal motor policies represented USD 359 billion in direct written premiums in 2024. The overall U.S. motor insurance market size is USD 532.45 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 826.30 billion by 2031. Personal auto insurance premiums were about $318 billion in 2023, representing 35.8% of the entire U.S. property and casualty insurance market.
- Homeowners Insurance
- **U.S. Homeowners Insurance:** The market size of Homeowners' Insurance in the U.S. was $175.1 billion in 2025. It is projected to be USD 184.59 billion in 2026 and reach USD 236.90 billion by 2031. Direct written premiums in the U.S. homeowners insurance market rose to nearly $173.1 billion in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
-
Disciplined Underwriting and Pricing: Travelers is focused on disciplined pricing and favorable renewal rate changes across its commercial and personal insurance lines. This strategy is expected to contribute to premium growth by reflecting adequate pricing for risk and offsetting inflationary pressures.
-
Growth in Net Investment Income: The company anticipates continued robust growth in net investment income, driven by higher interest rates and an expanding investment portfolio. Travelers projects approximately $3.3 billion in after-tax fixed income net investment income for 2026.
-
Expansion in Specialty Lines, Notably Cyber Insurance: Travelers aims for sustained double-digit premium growth in its cyber insurance offerings through 2025-2026, including benefits from integrations like Corvus, which expands its cyber footprint and risk-scoring capabilities. This is part of a broader strategy of specialty expansion.
-
Targeted Growth Initiatives within Business Insurance: The Business Insurance segment is expected to outgrow the market through initiatives such as enhanced quote/bind and agent portal rollouts across most U.S. states in 2024-2025. These efforts are designed to increase market share in specific areas like construction, Excess & Surplus (E&S), and management liability, contributing to broader small-commercial conversion gains.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In January 2026, the Board of Directors authorized an additional $5.0 billion for share repurchases, supplementing the $2.015 billion remaining from prior authorizations as of December 31, 2025.
- During the fourth quarter of 2025, Travelers repurchased 5.8 million shares at an average price of $285.04 per share, totaling $1.653 billion.
- The company expects to repurchase approximately $1.8 billion in shares during the first quarter of 2026.
Outbound Investments
- On May 27, 2025, Travelers agreed to divest its Canadian personal insurance and the majority of its Canadian commercial insurance operations to Definity Financial Corporation for approximately US$2.4 billion.
- The sale of the Canadian operations was completed on January 2, 2026, with Travelers retaining its Canadian surety business.
Capital Expenditures
- Travelers made a $1.5 billion technology investment and established a partnership with Anthropic to enhance AI capabilities in underwriting and claims.
- This investment supports efficiency gains in claims processing, with over half of all claims now eligible for straight-through processing and 15% more claims handled with advanced digital tools.
Peer Outperformance in Property & Casualty Insurance
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 26.1% | 74.7% | 129.5% | SPNT 163% · RGA 147% · RNR 137% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | 0.4% | 98.2% | 116.0% | IBKR 479% · SNEX 249% · GS 170% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 31.6% | 121.6% | 112.2% | JPM 151% · CM 150% · RY 142% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 10.9% | 56.5% | 105.9% | JXN 584% · UNM 354% · FG 206% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 4.7% | 48.2% | 83.2% | JONE 361% · BRK-B 88% · VOYA 79% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance ← | 42 | 11.8% | 70.4% | 67.7% | ASIC 2828900% · HRTG 480% · UVE 319% |
| Regional Banks | 265 | 26.8% | 83.9% | 64.6% | ESQ 361% · VBNK 332% · GCBC 324% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 12.7% | 74.3% | 62.3% | GNW 187% · L 108% · SLF 96% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -7.6% | 13.0% | 31.6% | VIRT 182% · CBOE 134% · CME 78% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 3.6% | 82.8% | 27.3% | ENVA 437% · EZPW 334% · FCFS 164% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -6.0% | 13.4% | 24.6% | FRHC 166% · EQH 110% · TMS -61% |
| Insurance Brokers | 16 | -14.9% | -5.0% | 21.2% | LIFE 274% · ARX 89% · AJG 73% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 84 | -11.8% | 12.0% | 10.7% | WT 303% · SII 267% · VCTR 246% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 13 | -51.1% | 23.7% | 9.1% | FNMA 420% · FMCC 392% · ACT 207% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 20.1% | 36.9% | 0.9% | EFC 29% · CACC 1% · HASI -19% |
| Mortgage REITs | 33 | -13.3% | 2.7% | -16.2% | NREF 48% · RITM 43% · DX 33% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 15 | 1.1% | -8.4% | -43.9% | V 74% · MA 70% · CPAY 56% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 21 | -40.5% | 2.2% | -76.0% | OPY 185% · LPLA 132% · GOLD 95% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 235.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 72.5 |
| Rev LTM | 55,628 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 11,638 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,332 |
| CFO LTM | 11,748 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,440 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 72.5 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | 7.9 |
| P/E | 10.2 |
| P/CFO | 7.5 |
| Total Yield | 12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Insurance | 26,018 | 24,657 | 21,861 | 19,589 | 18,609 |
| Personal Insurance | 18,279 | 17,418 | 15,600 | 13,803 | 12,628 |
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 4,579 | 4,378 | 4,008 | 3,696 | 3,408 |
| Net realized investment gains (losses) | -48 | -30 | -105 | -204 | 171 |
| Total | 48,828 | 46,423 | 41,364 | 36,884 | 34,816 |
| $ Mil | 2008 | 2007 | 2005 | 2003 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Insurance | 2,338 | 3,015 | |||
| Financial, Professional & International Insurance | 649 | 675 | |||
| Personal Insurance | 465 | 1,019 | |||
| Commercial | 756 | ||||
| Personal | 775 | ||||
| Specialty | 679 | ||||
| Asset Management | 187 | ||||
| Commercial Lines | 235 | ||||
| Property-Liability Insurance | 889 | ||||
| Specialty Commercial | 288 | ||||
| Commercial Lines Group | 99 | ||||
| Global Healthcare | -244 | ||||
| Global Surety | 51 | ||||
| International | -100 | ||||
| Life Insurance | 53 | ||||
| Other Global Specialty | -9 | ||||
| Property-Liability Investment Operations | 1,467 | ||||
| Reinsurance | -106 | ||||
| Total | 3,452 | 4,709 | 2,210 | 1,599 | 1,211 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business and International Insurance | 1,824 | 2,156 | |||
| Personal Insurance | 332 | 379 | 369 | 464 | 422 |
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 223 | 252 | |||
| Business Insurance | 1,975 | 2,156 | 1,902 | ||
| Financial, Professional & International Insurance | 372 | 439 | 452 | ||
| Total | 2,379 | 2,787 | 2,716 | 3,059 | 2,776 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Insurance | 106,084 | 98,311 | 93,565 | 86,522 | 90,353 |
| Personal Insurance | 22,787 | 21,138 | 20,072 | 18,275 | 18,983 |
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 13,676 | 12,628 | 11,478 | 10,119 | 10,146 |
| Other assets | 1,161 | 1,112 | 863 | 801 | 984 |
| Total | 143,708 | 133,189 | 125,978 | 115,717 | 120,466 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $378.92 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 79.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/09/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $367.24 | $313.08 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.2% | 21.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.9% | 20.7% |
| Downside Capture | -131.92 | -43.69 |
| Upside Capture | -1.48 | 4.71 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -20.2% | -5.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.10 | -0.90 | -0.68 | -0.23 | -0.11 | 0.33 |
| Up Beta | 0.72 | -0.73 | -0.03 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| Down Beta | -1.21 | -1.13 | -0.89 | -0.47 | -0.27 | 0.34 |
| Up Capture | -50% | -41% | -21% | -6% | 2% | 12% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 37 | 66 | 133 | 410 |
| Down Capture | -29% | -167% | -181% | -79% | -69% | 16% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 27 | 61 | 118 | 338 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRV | 39.4% | 20.8% | 1.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.5% | 14.6% | 0.14 | 34.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 12.8% | 0.82 | -6.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.7% | 29.3% | 0.50 | -6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.3% | 20.7% | 1.76 | -13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.5% | 0.10 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.6% | 43.9% | -0.84 | -6.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRV | 21.4% | 22.3% | 0.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.0% | 18.4% | 0.41 | 55.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.3% | 17.2% | 0.54 | 32.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 19.6% | 0.46 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.5% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 35.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 5.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRV | 14.7% | 24.7% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.9% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 67.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 51.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.3% | 0.59 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 17.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 53.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.0% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 8.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/19/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/17/2026 | 9.2% | 11.4% | 9.6% |
| 4/16/2026 | -0.2% | 0.8% | -0.3% |
| 1/21/2026 | 1.1% | 4.3% | 11.2% |
| 10/16/2025 | -2.9% | -0.4% | 6.7% |
| 7/17/2025 | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| 4/16/2025 | 1.1% | 3.8% | 8.5% |
| 1/22/2025 | 3.2% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| 10/17/2024 | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.9% | -2.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 11.4% | 20.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -6.8% | -4.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/17/2026 | 9.2% | 11.4% | 9.6% |
| 4/16/2026 | -0.2% | 0.8% | -0.3% |
| 1/21/2026 | 1.1% | 4.3% | 11.2% |
| 10/16/2025 | -2.9% | -0.4% | 6.7% |
| 7/17/2025 | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| 4/16/2025 | 1.1% | 3.8% | 8.5% |
| 1/22/2025 | 3.2% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| 10/17/2024 | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% |
| 7/19/2024 | -7.8% | -5.2% | -1.8% |
| 4/17/2024 | -7.4% | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| 1/19/2024 | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% |
| 10/18/2023 | -0.7% | -6.8% | 0.1% |
| 7/20/2023 | 1.8% | 2.1% | -4.2% |
| 4/19/2023 | 6.1% | 3.1% | 5.6% |
| 1/24/2023 | 3.7% | 0.8% | -0.1% |
| 10/19/2022 | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% |
| 7/21/2022 | -0.9% | 0.5% | 10.1% |
| 4/19/2022 | -4.9% | -5.8% | -4.2% |
| 1/20/2022 | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% |
| 10/19/2021 | 1.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| 7/20/2021 | -0.1% | -1.6% | 5.1% |
| 4/20/2021 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| 1/21/2021 | 2.6% | -3.8% | 0.6% |
| 10/20/2020 | 5.6% | 8.7% | 20.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.9% | -2.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 11.4% | 20.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -6.8% | -4.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/16/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/16/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/19/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/16/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/16/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/19/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/19/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/17/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/19/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/20/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/20/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/11/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/20/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/22/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/18/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Expense Ratio | Reported | 0.28 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.28 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Expense Ratio | Reported | 0.28 | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 7.01 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/31/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olivo, Maria | EVP, ERM & Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 369.86 | 6,000 | 2,219,145 | 43,917,788 | Form |
| 2 | Yin, Daniel Tei-Hwa | EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer | Direct | Sell | 7272026 | 387.00 | 7,153 | 2,768,211 | 26,638,778 | Form |
| 3 | Kurtzman, Diane | EVP & Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 7272026 | 386.71 | 4,164 | 1,610,260 | 2,048,870 | Form |
| 4 | Klein, Michael Frederick | EVP & President, Personal Ins. | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 366.09 | 6,000 | 2,196,561 | 16,519,895 | Form |
| 5 | Frey, Daniel S | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 368.24 | 14,037 | 5,169,002 | 10,139,503 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olivo, Maria | EVP, ERM & Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 369.86 | 6,000 | 2,219,145 | 43,917,788 | Form |
| 2 | Yin, Daniel Tei-Hwa | EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer | Direct | Sell | 7272026 | 387.00 | 7,153 | 2,768,211 | 26,638,778 | Form |
| 3 | Kurtzman, Diane | EVP & Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 7272026 | 386.71 | 4,164 | 1,610,260 | 2,048,870 | Form |
| 4 | Klein, Michael Frederick | EVP & President, Personal Ins. | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 366.09 | 6,000 | 2,196,561 | 16,519,895 | Form |
| 5 | Frey, Daniel S | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 368.24 | 14,037 | 5,169,002 | 10,139,503 | Form |
| 6 | Lefebvre, Mojgan M | EVP & Chief Tech & Ops Officer | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 368.38 | 16,313 | Form | ||
| 7 | Klein, Michael Frederick | EVP & President, Personal Ins. | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 307.65 | 10,000 | 3,076,546 | 13,882,848 | Form |
| 8 | Bessette, Andy F | EVP and Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 308.11 | 4,255 | 1,311,008 | 7,482,266 | Form |
| 9 | Kess, Avrohom J | Vice Chmn. & Chief Legal Off. | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 308.78 | 6,735 | 2,079,640 | 15,049,190 | Form |
| 10 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 310.64 | 1,557 | 483,670 | 80,639,624 | Form |
| 11 | Kurtzman, Diane | EVP & Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 303.45 | 2,867 | 869,980 | 1,607,721 | Form |
| 12 | Klein, Michael Frederick | EVP & President, Personal Ins. | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 303.77 | 10,000 | 3,037,691 | 13,707,515 | Form |
| 13 | Klenk, Jeffrey P | EVP & Pres., Bond & Spec. Ins. | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 305.06 | 6,414 | 1,956,549 | 1,853,332 | Form |
| 14 | Rowland, David Donnay | EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 308.52 | 4,731 | 1,459,604 | 3,232,857 | Form |
| 15 | Olivo, Maria | EVP, ERM & Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 306.60 | 10,400 | 3,188,588 | 38,245,414 | Form |
| 16 | Munson, Paul E | SVP & Corp. Controller | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 306.04 | 3,727 | 1,140,611 | 225,043 | Form |
| 17 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 307.44 | 4,000 | 1,229,755 | 79,808,032 | Form |
| 18 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 304.00 | 1,000 | 304,000 | 78,915,360 | Form |
| 19 | Toczydlowski, Gregory C | EVP & President, Business Ins. | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 299.76 | 12,200 | 3,656,984 | 5,520,444 | Form |
| 20 | Frey, Daniel S | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 299.50 | 8,000 | 2,395,960 | 8,246,579 | Form |
| 21 | Kess, Avrohom J | Vice Chmn & Chief Legal Off | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 300.44 | 4,756 | 1,428,901 | 15,281,193 | Form |
| 22 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 300.00 | 1,000 | 300,000 | 76,525,660 | Form |
| 23 | Bessette, Andy F | EVP and Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 297.65 | 6,000 | 1,785,925 | 5,915,751 | Form |
| 24 | Olivo, Maria | EVP, ERM & Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 300.75 | 10,400 | 3,127,832 | 35,367,406 | Form |
| 25 | Klein, Michael Frederick | EVP & President, Personal Ins. | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 301.18 | 10,000 | 3,011,783 | 10,131,045 | Form |
| 26 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 303.00 | 1,000 | 303,000 | 77,290,917 | Form |
| 27 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 302.00 | 5,000 | 1,510,000 | 77,035,831 | Form |
| 28 | Schnitzer, Alan D | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 294.70 | 55,733 | 16,424,517 | 76,719,082 | Form |
| 29 | Klenk, Jeffrey P | EVP & Pres., Bond & Spec. Ins. | Direct | Sell | 1262026 | 279.77 | 16,712 | 4,675,593 | 1,699,715 | Form |
| 30 | Olivo, Maria | EVP, Strat Dev & Pres Intl | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 295.73 | 8,920 | 2,637,912 | 34,776,709 | Form |
| 31 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 294.50 | 4,000 | 1,178,010 | 75,123,327 | Form |
| 32 | Kurtzman, Diane | EVP & Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 290.00 | 4,805 | 1,393,450 | 1,107,379 | Form |
| 33 | Rowland, David Donnay | EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 290.57 | 5,000 | 1,452,849 | 5,103,099 | Form |
| 34 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 291.50 | 2,000 | 583,000 | 74,357,433 | Form |
| 35 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 289.55 | 1,803 | 522,067 | 73,861,198 | Form |
| 36 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 287.50 | 2,000 | 575,000 | 73,337,091 | Form |
| 37 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 284.69 | 4,000 | 1,138,780 | 72,621,576 | Form |
| 38 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 281.50 | 2,000 | 563,000 | 71,806,578 | Form |
| 39 | Heyman, William H | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 280.00 | 1,000 | 280,000 | 71,423,950 | Form |
| 40 | Frey, Daniel S | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 278.25 | 25,000 | 6,956,255 | 7,493,784 | Form |
| 41 | Klein, Michael Frederick | EVP & President, Personal Ins. | Direct | Sell | 10292025 | 270.73 | 8,572 | 2,320,728 | 9,106,944 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 17, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $29.2 Mil | 7.8% | 12 | TRIM -26.3% | 13F |
| St. James Investment Company, LLC | $19.8 Mil | 3.1% | 22 | TRIM -23.9% | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $5.9 Mil | 1.0% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $5.6 Mil | 0.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives | $14.6 Mil | 0.1% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $29.2 Mil | 7.8% | 12 | TRIM -26.3% | 13F |
| St. James Investment Company, LLC | $19.8 Mil | 3.1% | 22 | TRIM -23.9% | 13F |
| National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives | $14.6 Mil | 0.1% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $5.9 Mil | 1.0% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $5.6 Mil | 0.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
TRV Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Travelers is executing a clear strategy of underwriting discipline, which produced a record 24.9% core return on equity in its most recent quarter. This profitability, combined with a fortress balance sheet, is funding a substantial 13.4% total shareholder yield. The market has strongly endorsed this profitable, shareholder-focused approach over simple top-line growth.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring TransactionalNet Written Premiums = (Number of Policies in Force x Average Premium per Policy) - Ceded Reinsurance Premiums Underwriting Margin (achieving a profitable Combined Ratio) combined with Net Investment Income earned on invested premiums (float).
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The company is prioritizing highly profitable underwriting over market share, a strategy the market is rewarding.
- Q2 2026 core return on equity was 24.9%, well above the mid-teens target.
- Business Insurance retention remains strong at 86% despite pricing actions.
- The company has a total shareholder yield of 13.4%.
PRIMARY RISK
Peers report that price competition is intensifying and spreading from property to casualty lines, potentially threatening the sustainability of Travelers' strong underwriting margins.
- A peer CEO noted casualty pricing is 'failing to keep pace with loss costs'.
- Headline renewal premium change in Business Insurance decelerated.
- Trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 2.4% lags peers significantly.
- A peer CEO saw market pricing down around 40% on property business they passed on.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Net Written Premiums (NWP) Growth | Up 5% year-over-year in the core Business Insurance segment (excluding the impact of a divestiture) in Q2 2026 - Accelerating | Consolidated Net Written Premiums were comparable to the prior year in Q2 2026, but this was impacted by the sale of the company's Canadian business. Excluding that divestiture, NWP grew 2%. The core Business Insurance segment, which represents over half of premiums, showed healthier underlying growth of 5% (ex-Canada), accelerating from 4% domestic growth in the prior quarter. This indicates stable to improving momentum in the primary business lines. |
| Renewal Premium Change (RPC) | 4.8% in the Business Insurance segment in Q2 2026 - Decelerating | The headline deceleration in pricing is primarily driven by the property line, where management is exercising underwriting discipline in a softening market. Excluding the property line, management stated that RPC was 7.8% and about flat sequentially, indicating pricing remains firm in other core commercial lines. |
| Combined Ratio | 83.6% (Q2 2026) | Measures overall underwriting profitability. |
| Underlying Combined Ratio | 84.1% (Q2 2026) | Represents the core underwriting performance of the business by excluding the impact of catastrophe losses and prior year reserve development, providing a view of current accident year profitability. |
| Core Return on Equity (ROE) | 24.9% (Q2 2026) | Market rewards The company has a long-term target of a mid-teens core ROE.. Measures the company's profitability in relation to shareholders' equity, excluding certain non-core items. It is a key measure of shareholder value creation. |
Profitability Engine vs. Competitive Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the company's disciplined underwriting is a durable advantage, generating superior returns and cash flow that will continue to fund value-creating buybacks, regardless of market softness.
CORE TENSION
Can a record 88.2% underlying combined ratio in Business Insurance offset the competitive pressure implied by 2.4% TTM revenue growth, which the market rewarded with a 9.0% stock gain?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market's powerful positive reaction to Q2 earnings demonstrates it currently values Travelers' proven profitability far more than its muted top-line growth.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that anemic 2.4% revenue growth is a sign of losing share, and that spreading market softness will inevitably erode the recent record profitability, exposing the lack of growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/16/2026 | Commercial Property Pricing Declines Watch: Commentary on renewal premium change in Business Insurance, specifically the property line, and net written premium trends. |
10/19/2026 | Broadening Casualty Market Softening Watch: Peer commentary on casualty pricing trends as a read-through for TRV's largest segment, Business Insurance. |
11/2/2026 | Personal Lines Growth Stalls Watch: Peer Progressive's results and commentary on competition in personal auto and home for signals of headwinds. |
11/4/2026 | Peer Allstate Earnings Report Watch: Peer Allstate (ALL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
Oct. 16 | Third Quarter Earnings Report Watch: The company will report its third quarter 2026 results. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-14 | Q3 Earnings Call Scheduled Details: The company scheduled its conference call to review third quarter 2026 results for 9 a.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 16. | +0.7% $375.20 -> $377.97 |
2026-08-18 | Major Institutional Investment Details: News reports noted BlackRock Inc. bought a new stake in the company, valued at approximately $6.92 billion, representing about 10.04% of Travelers. | -0.6% $363.27 -> $360.99 |
2026-07-24 | Senior Notes Issuance Details: AM Best assigned an 'a+' rating to $750 million of 4.95% senior unsecured notes due July 2031. The company's financial leverage ratio was 21.4%. | +3.7% $375.09 -> $389.02 |
2026-07-17 | Excellent Q2 Results Reported Details: Travelers reported Q2 net income of $2.208 billion, or $10.26 per diluted share. The strong results drove a 9.0% positive two-day stock reaction. | +9.1% $336.67 -> $367.24 |
2026-06-30 | AI Strategy Advancement Details: The company announced the development of TravelersLLM, a proprietary large language model trained on millions of company documents to enhance underwriting, research, and model development. | +0.8% $330.75 -> $333.48 |
2026-04-16 | Q1 Earnings and Dividend Hike Details: The company reported strong Q1 results and the Board of Directors declared a 14% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $1.25 per diluted share. | +0.5% $297.07 -> $298.54 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: TRV trades at roughly 24% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market), around the 89th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
CB - Chubb
Complex Risk SpecialistChubb offers focused exposure to disciplined underwriting for large, complex commercial risks, a different segment than Travelers' core small and mid-sized business focus.
PGR - Progressive
Personal Lines GrowthProgressive provides direct exposure to high-growth U.S. personal auto insurance through a dominant direct-to-consumer model, contrasting with Travelers' agent-focused, multi-line approach.
A disciplined, diversified P&C underwriter whose scale and data-driven 'earnings engine' generates durable profits and substantial capital returns, even while navigating volatile markets.
Travelers operates a formidable 'earnings engine' built on durable underlying underwriting income and growing net investment income, which has proven resilient enough to absorb significant catastrophe losses while still producing leading returns. The company prioritizes disciplined risk selection and pricing over market share, as evidenced by its strategic reduction in the large-account property market. This discipline, combined with a strong balance sheet, allows for consistent and significant capital returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
Sustained strong underlying combined ratios, continued positive renewal premium changes in core businesses, and ongoing net favorable prior year reserve development would confirm the durability of the underwriting engine.
A significant and sustained increase in the underlying combined ratio, evidence of losing pricing discipline to chase growth, or significant adverse prior year reserve development, particularly in long-tail casualty lines.
Quarterly volatility in catastrophe losses or short-term stock price movements not tied to fundamental underwriting performance.
Repricing Catalyst
The strong Q2 2026 results, which beat expectations on underwriting profitability and showed lower catastrophe losses, prompted a 9.0% positive stock reaction, suggesting the market is repricing the stock based on the perceived durability and strength of the company's earnings power.
Business Insurance
$26.3B TTM (54% of Total)What It Is
Offers a broad array of property and casualty insurance products and services to customers ranging from small businesses (Select Accounts) to mid-sized (Middle Market) and large companies (National Accounts), primarily in the United States but also internationally.
Who Pays & How
Businesses of all sizes pay premiums to protect against operational risks such as workers' compensation, commercial auto accidents, property damage, and general liability. They choose Travelers for its customized programs, claims handling, risk management services, and financial strength.
Competition
Personal Insurance
$18.0B TTM (37% of Total)What It Is
Offers a broad range of property and casualty insurance products, primarily automobile and homeowners insurance, to individuals in the United States.
Who Pays & How
Individuals pay premiums to protect against personal risks, such as losses to their homes, vehicles, and personal liability. They choose Travelers based on breadth of product offerings, price, service (including claims handling), and brand recognition, primarily through independent agents.
Competition
Bond & Specialty Insurance
$4.7B TTM (10% of Total)What It Is
Offers surety, fidelity, management liability (e.g., D&O), and professional liability coverages to a wide range of customers, including construction firms, general commercial enterprises, public corporations, private companies, and financial institutions.
Who Pays & How
Businesses and other organizations pay for specialized, financially-based underwriting products. For example, a construction firm pays for a surety bond to guarantee contract performance, or a corporation pays for D&O insurance to protect its executives.
Competition
Travelers Companies — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Property & Casualty Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Journal |
| Business Insurance |
| PropertyCasualty360 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.