Trinity Industries (TRN)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $30.52 | Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Trinity Industries (TRN)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $30.52Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight. Themes include Freight Technology, Railcar Manufacturing & Leasing, and Sustainable Freight Solutions. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 213% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.1% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13% Key risksTRN key risks include [1] its high financial leverage, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight. Themes include Freight Technology, Railcar Manufacturing & Leasing, and Sustainable Freight Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 213% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.1% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13% |
| Key risksTRN key risks include [1] its high financial leverage, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Trinity Industries (TRN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Second Quarter 2026 Earnings and Reaffirmed Full-Year Guidance. Trinity Industries reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.25 for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026. This performance was significantly boosted by a $132 million non-cash pre-tax gain from a railcar partnership transaction. Alongside these results, the company maintained its full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $2.20 to $2.40, signaling confidence in its ongoing financial performance.
2. Robust Third Quarter 2026 Operational Performance and Positive Growth Outlook. For fiscal Q3 2026, ended September 30, 2026, Trinity Industries reported EPS of $0.27, meeting analyst consensus, and a year-over-year revenue increase of 18% to $535.1 million. Critically, new railcar orders of 2,190 exceeded deliveries of 2,030, leading to a growing backlog of $1.6 billion. Management highlighted that 2026 is expected to be the cyclical low point for industry deliveries and expressed confidence in the business being "positioned for growth, with momentum building."
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Trinity Industries (TRN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Second Quarter 2026 Earnings and Reaffirmed Full-Year Guidance. Trinity Industries reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.25 for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026. This performance was significantly boosted by a $132 million non-cash pre-tax gain from a railcar partnership transaction. Alongside these results, the company maintained its full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $2.20 to $2.40, signaling confidence in its ongoing financial performance.
2. Robust Third Quarter 2026 Operational Performance and Positive Growth Outlook. For fiscal Q3 2026, ended September 30, 2026, Trinity Industries reported EPS of $0.27, meeting analyst consensus, and a year-over-year revenue increase of 18% to $535.1 million. Critically, new railcar orders of 2,190 exceeded deliveries of 2,030, leading to a growing backlog of $1.6 billion. Management highlighted that 2026 is expected to be the cyclical low point for industry deliveries and expressed confidence in the business being "positioned for growth, with momentum building."
3. Strengthening Railcar Leasing Fundamentals. The company's lease fleet utilization remained strong at 97.0% in fiscal Q3 2026, indicating high demand for its railcars. Furthermore, renewal rates for leases were 4.1% above expiring rates, demonstrating favorable pricing power within its leasing segment. This sustained strength in leasing provides a stable and profitable revenue stream.
4. Favorable Macroeconomic Trends in the North American Railcar Market. The North American railcar market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance. The overall railcar fleet is contracting as older equipment is retired, while freight demand is strengthening. U.S. rail volume increased 8.5% year-over-year in mid-October 2026, with year-to-date combined traffic up 3.7% from 2025, suggesting increasing utilization and potential for new railcar orders in the near future. This market dynamic is beneficial for railcar manufacturers and lessors like Trinity Industries.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.2% change in TRN stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.87 | 30.50 | -1.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,042 | 2,123 | 4.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.6% | 15.4% | -7.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.2 | 7.4 | 2.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 80 | 80 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRN | -1.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | 20.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.7% | 33.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.5% change in TRN stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.95 | 30.50 | -4.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,064 | 2,123 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.4% | 15.4% | 24.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.0 | 7.4 | -25.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 80 | 80 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRN | -4.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 12.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -6.7% | 23.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.1% change in TRN stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 250.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.28 | 30.50 | 16.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,175 | 2,123 | -2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.4% | 15.4% | 250.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.2 | 7.4 | -66.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 80 | 80 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRN | 16.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 19.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.7% | 34.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 65.2% change in TRN stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 380.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.46 | 30.50 | 65.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,452 | 2,123 | -13.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 15.4% | 380.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.1 | 7.4 | -61.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 81 | 80 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 65.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRN | 65.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 39.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.8% | 48.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRN Return | 18% | 1% | -6% | 37% | -21% | 20% | 45% |
| Peers Return | 27% | -4% | 23% | 74% | 7% | 3% | 187% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRN Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 45% | 55% | 65% | 60% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRN Max Drawdown | -23% | -38% | -30% | -16% | -40% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -36% | -26% | -22% | -36% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GBX, GATX, WAB, ACA, RAIL. See TRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TRN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 722 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Trinity Industries's stock fell -29.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TRN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 722 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1844 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 177 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 320.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 667 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2014 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Trinity Industries's stock fell -29.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Trinity Industries (TRN)
Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) is a leading North American provider of rail transportation products and services, operating primarily under the TrinityRail brand. The company is central to the logistics chain, offering comprehensive solutions for businesses that rely on rail for transporting a wide array of materials and goods across the continent.
The company's business is structured around two key areas: manufacturing and leasing railcars. Through its Rail Products Group, Trinity Industries manufactures various freight and tank railcars designed for transporting liquids, gases, and dry cargo, alongside providing maintenance and modification services for these vehicles. Simultaneously, its Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group offers leasing options for its extensive fleet of freight and tank railcars, manages leases for third-party investors, and delivers fleet maintenance and management services.
Trinity Industries serves a broad spectrum of customers, including railroad companies, other leasing entities, and a diverse range of industrial shippers. These clients operate in critical sectors such as agriculture, construction and metals, consumer products, energy, and refined products and chemicals, all depending on Trinity's specialized railcar solutions for their operational and logistical requirements.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Trinity Industries (TRN):
- Ryder System for freight railcars: Trinity Industries manufactures, leases, and manages fleets of freight and tank railcars, much like Ryder System provides truck leasing and fleet management services for commercial vehicles.
- Caterpillar for the rail industry: Imagine a company similar to Caterpillar, but instead of making and leasing heavy construction equipment like bulldozers, Trinity Industries specializes in manufacturing and leasing various types of railcars.
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- Railcar Manufacturing: Trinity Industries manufactures new freight and tank railcars designed for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo.
- Railcar Leasing: The company leases a fleet of freight and tank railcars to industrial shippers and railroad companies across North America.
- Railcar Lease Management: Trinity Industries originates and manages railcar leases on behalf of third-party investors.
- Railcar Maintenance and Modification Services: The company provides comprehensive maintenance, modification, and fleet management services for railcars.
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Trinity Industries (TRN) sells primarily to other companies. Based on the provided description, its major customer categories are:
- Industrial Shippers: Companies operating in various sectors such as agriculture, construction and metals, consumer products, energy, and refined products and chemicals markets. These companies lease or purchase railcars to transport their goods.
- Railroad Companies: Entities that operate rail networks and transport goods, which lease or purchase railcars from Trinity Industries.
- Leasing Companies (Third-Party Investors): Other companies that invest in and lease railcars to industrial shippers and railroads, and utilize Trinity's management services.
The company description does not name specific major customer companies within these categories.
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E. Jean Savage
Chief Executive Officer and President
Ms. Savage was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of Trinity Industries in February 2020. She is the first non-family member and first woman to lead the company. Prior to joining Trinity, Ms. Savage spent 17 years at Caterpillar Inc. in various senior leadership positions, including Vice President of the Surface Mining & Technology division, a role she held since August 2017. She also held leadership roles for 12 years in Caterpillar's Progress Rail division, a wholly owned subsidiary, including SVP and Chief Operating Officer of the locomotive and railcar services unit. Before Caterpillar, she worked for 14 years at Parker Hannifin Corporation in manufacturing and engineering roles. Ms. Savage began her career with nine years of service as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Army Reserves.
Eric R. Marchetto
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Marchetto was appointed Chief Financial Officer for Trinity in March 2020. He joined Trinity in 1995 and has held various leadership roles, including both Chief Financial Officer and Group President of TrinityRail. Mr. Marchetto was previously Chief Financial Officer of TrinityRail. He has been a key contributor to the development, growth, and evolution of the railcar manufacturing, leasing, and services businesses into the TrinityRail platform.
Melendy E. Lovett
Senior Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer
Ms. Lovett currently serves as Senior Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer of Trinity Industries. She previously held the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer after the spin-off of Arcosa, Inc., and then returned to her position as Chief Administrative Officer in March 2020. Ms. Lovett led the company's spin-off of Arcosa, Inc. to Trinity's shareholders. Before joining Trinity as an executive, she was a member of Trinity's Board of Directors. Ms. Lovett had a 20-year career with Texas Instruments, most recently as Senior Vice President and President of the company's worldwide Education Technology business. Prior to Texas Instruments, she was a senior manager with the consulting firm Coopers & Lybrand. She is a Certified Public Accountant.
Scott M. Ewing
Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Mr. Ewing joined Trinity in 2015 as Associate General Counsel and was named Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer in 2023.
Kevin Poet
Executive Vice President, Operations and Support Services
Mr. Poet joined Trinity in 2020 as Executive Vice President of Support Services. Prior to Trinity, he served as the Vice President of Operations for the Power Generation business for Siemens AG, where he led a spin-off of Siemens Energy in North America.
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Cyclical Nature of the Industry and Market Volatility: Trinity Industries operates in a highly cyclical industry where demand for railcars is closely tied to fluctuations in industrial production, trade policies, and overall economic stability. Economic downturns or changes in trade policies can lead to unpredictable demand, deferred deliveries, or cancellations of orders, thereby adversely affecting the company's revenue and profitability.
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High Financial Leverage and Interest Rate Fluctuations: The company faces significant risks due to its high financial leverage and substantial debt. Its liquidity position can be concerning, with high debt levels relative to cash. Elevated interest rates further exacerbate this risk by increasing interest expenses, which can negatively impact the company's bottom line and limit its financial flexibility.
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Supply Chain Disruptions, Material Price Volatility, and Operational Risks in Mexico: Trinity Industries heavily relies on raw materials, particularly steel, and other specialty components, making it vulnerable to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, a significant portion of its manufacturing operations is located in Mexico, exposing the company to political, legal, economic, and regulatory changes in the region, including potential tariffs and trade barriers that could disrupt operations and impact profitability.
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Trinity Industries (TRN) operates within several addressable markets in North America related to rail transportation products and services.
For its Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, the addressable market in North America is significant. The North America railcar leasing market size was valued at USD 11.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 18.2 billion by 2034, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.4%. Another estimate indicates the North America railcar leasing market is forecast to increase by USD 8.30 billion at a CAGR of 9.1% between 2024 and 2029. The U.S. railcar leasing market alone was valued at USD 7.2 billion in 2025.
Regarding its Rail Products Group, which manufactures freight and tank railcars, the North American freight railcar market is a substantial addressable market. This market is valued at approximately $4.2 billion, with an estimated annual demand of 45,000 to 60,000 new railcars.
For its railcar maintenance and modification services, also part of the Rail Products Group, the addressable market in North America is also considerable. The global railcar repair market, including North America, was valued at approximately USD 8.47 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to around USD 11.94 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.9%. North America remains the largest regional market for railcar repair. Specifically for freight railcar repair, the market is estimated to reach USD 25.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 101.3 billion in 2035, at a CAGR of 14.7%. Additionally, the North America rail maintenance market was valued at USD 10 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 14 billion in 2035. The North America freight railcar parts market, relevant for maintenance and modification, is estimated to be valued at USD 4.93 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 8.13 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.4%.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Trinity Industries (TRN) over the next 2-3 years:
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Repricing of the Lease Fleet and High Utilization Rates: Trinity Industries anticipates continued revenue growth from its Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group due to the repricing of its lease fleet in a favorable rate environment. The company has consistently maintained high lease fleet utilization rates (e.g., 97.1% in Q4 2025, 97.0% in Q4 2024, 97.5% in Q1 2024), and a positive Future Lease Rate Differential (FLRD) indicates that renewing lease rates are significantly higher than expiring rates, which is expected to boost revenue and profitability.
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Strategic Expansion into High-Margin Service Offerings: Trinity Industries is strategically shifting towards and expanding its high-margin service offerings, particularly within maintenance and logistics through its TrinityRail division. This includes targeted acquisitions, such as the 2024 acquisition of a tank car maintenance network, to capitalize on growth in North American energy and chemicals logistics. The company aims to increase the contribution of service-oriented revenue streams to 70% of total revenue by 2027.
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Robust Railcar Backlog and Manufacturing Efficiency: The company benefits from a substantial railcar backlog (e.g., $2.1 billion at year-end 2024, $1.8 billion at Q3 2025), which provides multi-year revenue visibility for its Rail Products Group. Alongside this, improved operational and labor efficiencies in its manufacturing processes are contributing to better margins, even amidst some fluctuations in overall industry deliveries.
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International Market Penetration: Trinity Industries is pursuing international expansion as a driver of future growth. A notable example is the $150 million joint venture announced in late 2024 to establish a manufacturing facility in Eastern Europe. This initiative is designed to leverage the company's manufacturing expertise and target European operators with aging fleets, diversifying its geographic revenue base.
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Innovation in Railcar Products and Digital Services: The company is focused on innovation, including the development of specialized railcars for emerging energy markets (such as hydrogen transport) and the application of technology to enhance operational efficiencies. Investments in areas like predictive maintenance, advanced materials, and automated inspection drones are expected to create diversified, high-margin revenue streams and strengthen its value proposition to customers.
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Share Repurchases
- Trinity Industries repurchased approximately $807 million of its common stock in 2021.
- In 2024, the company repurchased approximately $21 million of shares. In 2025, approximately $71 million was used for share buybacks.
- As of December 2022, a new share repurchase authorization of $250 million was approved with no expiration. As of February 2025, a remaining authorization of up to $229 million was noted.
Inbound Investments
- In August 2021, Trinity Industries partnered with Wafra Inc. to launch a new railcar investment vehicle program, targeting up to $1 billion in leased railcar investments over three years.
- In December 2025, Trinity completed a strategic restructuring of its railcar investment partnerships with Napier Park, resulting in Trinity wholly owning approximately 6,235 additional railcars and a $194 million non-cash pre-tax gain.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2023, Trinity Industries acquired RSI Logistics for $70 million, a company providing tech-enabled solutions for rail freight management.
Capital Expenditures
- Trinity Industries made a net investment in its lease fleet of approximately $287 million in 2023, focusing on new railcar additions, sustainable railcar conversions, and railcar modifications.
- For 2024, the company anticipated a net fleet investment between $300 million and $400 million, alongside operating and administrative capital expenditures of $50 million to $60 million.
- For 2025, the full-year net lease fleet investment was $303 million. For 2026, the company expects a net lease fleet investment between $450 million and $550 million and operating and administrative capital expenditures of $55 million to $65 million, with a focus on automation, technology, and modernization of facilities and processes.
Peer Outperformance in Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 25.1% | 30.2% | 102.9% | MATX 155% · KEX 103% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment ← | 13 | 6.3% | 55.5% | 95.0% | ALSN 255% · WAB 204% · CAT 192% |
| Construction & Engineering | 29 | -21.3% | 79.9% | 94.8% | FIX 895% · STRL 799% · AGX 526% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -12.6% | 55.7% | 49.5% | ATI 849% · FTAI 756% · HWM 509% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.6% | 30.7% | 33.8% | DXPE 276% · AIT 184% · URI 177% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 0.3% | 46.1% | 29.7% | CRS 797% · MLI 298% · SYM 249% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 34.9% | 53.7% | 27.8% | CSX 54% · UNP 40% · NSC 28% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 14.8% | 36.8% | 21.3% | CXW 195% · OPLN 143% · CTAS 115% |
| Building Products | 34 | -6.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | MOD 714% · GFF 345% · TT 126% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 27.9% | 14.6% | 4.8% | XPO 269% · R 250% · ARCB 25% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 14.8% | -1.6% | -1.3% | CSW 103% · CSL 72% · DD 65% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 20.8% | 22.5% | -2.6% | PBI 158% · TILE 140% · HNI 40% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -14.2% | 56.2% | -12.1% | POWL 1360% · VRT 543% · BE 424% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -11.8% | 5.0% | -12.7% | EXLS 59% · BR 22% · G -12% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.9% | -15.5% | -22.6% | HURN 227% · FCN 36% · BAH 14% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 7.2% | -7.4% | -27.4% | BLBD 171% · DE 99% · TTC 15% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -51.2% | 10.7% | -28.0% | BCO 65% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -31.2% | 25.5% | -28.1% | GEO 163% · CLH 162% · RSG 100% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 2.6% | 64.1% | -34.8% | LTM 3100% · UAL 110% · DAL 100% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -28.8% | -7.3% | -39.1% | FDX 80% · EXPD 60% · CHRW 54% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 19.2% | -6.0% | -42.4% | ADP 50% · FA 22% · PAYX 13% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -14.1% | 42.9% | -57.4% | UBER 46% · CAR -57% · LYFT -67% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -49.1% | -62.8% | -86.2% | JOBY -47% |
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,336 |
| Op Inc LTM | 309 |
| FCF LTM | 76 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 91 |
| CFO LTM | 376 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 377 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.3 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 15.8 |
| P/CFO | 14.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail Products Group | 1,420 | 2,431 | 2,479 | 1,886 | 1,265 |
| Railcar Leasing and Services Group | 1,207 | 1,143 | 1,041 | 852 | 735 |
| Elimination of intersegment revenues | -469 | -495 | -537 | -760 | |
| Corporate and other | 0 | ||||
| Eliminations - Lease subsidiary | -478 | ||||
| Eliminations - Other | -6 | ||||
| Total | 2,157 | 3,079 | 2,983 | 1,977 | 1,516 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Railcar Leasing and Services Group | 708 | 464 | 438 | 402 | 351 |
| Rail Products Group | 74 | 189 | 113 | 66 | 5 |
| Restructuring activities, net | 0 | -4 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| Eliminations | -22 | -32 | -27 | -52 | |
| Corporate and other | -112 | -126 | -108 | -81 | -84 |
| Eliminations - Lease subsidiary | -17 | ||||
| Eliminations - Other | -1 | ||||
| Total | 649 | 492 | 417 | 334 | 257 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Railcar Leasing and Services Group | 7,676 | 8,152 | 7,896 | 7,780 | 7,585 |
| Rail Products Group | 938 | 968 | 1,475 | 1,440 | 1,064 |
| Corporate and other | 385 | 383 | 286 | 267 | 365 |
| Eliminations | -575 | -670 | |||
| Eliminations - Lease subsidiary | -750 | -763 | -779 | ||
| Total | 8,424 | 8,832 | 8,906 | 8,724 | 8,236 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $30.50 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $27.11 | $30.89 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 12.5% | -1.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.2% | 37.7% |
| Downside Capture | 1.36 | 50.59 |
| Upside Capture | 49.18 | 71.40 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 6.1% | 16.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.83 | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.06 | 0.44 | 0.90 |
| Up Beta | 2.07 | 0.19 | 0.73 | -0.52 | 0.32 | 0.95 |
| Down Beta | -0.51 | -1.56 | -1.89 | -0.31 | -0.04 | 0.85 |
| Up Capture | 30% | 28% | 19% | 9% | 58% | 69% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 24 | 33 | 67 | 131 | 379 |
| Down Capture | -222% | -1% | 52% | 69% | 69% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 31 | 59 | 119 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRN | 21.8% | 37.7% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 7.4% | 17.8% | 0.24 | 34.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | 19.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | 9.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | -28.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 36.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | 4.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRN | 5.6% | 36.1% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.8% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 56.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 46.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 47.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 16.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRN | 9.9% | 36.8% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.9% | 20.1% | 0.56 | 61.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 51.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 21.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 44.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 12.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 10.8% | 24.8% | |
| 7/30/2026 | -6.5% | -11.6% | -19.7% |
| 4/30/2026 | 6.0% | 17.8% | 5.5% |
| 2/12/2026 | 9.2% | 7.8% | -6.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.8% | -5.6% | -5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -6.7% | 8.0% | 14.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -2.9% | -3.9% | 2.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -8.3% | -8.9% | -13.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -5.6% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 24.8% | 30.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.1% | -11.6% | -22.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 10.8% | 24.8% | |
| 7/30/2026 | -6.5% | -11.6% | -19.7% |
| 4/30/2026 | 6.0% | 17.8% | 5.5% |
| 2/12/2026 | 9.2% | 7.8% | -6.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.8% | -5.6% | -5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -6.7% | 8.0% | 14.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -2.9% | -3.9% | 2.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -8.3% | -8.9% | -13.4% |
| 10/31/2024 | -4.1% | 3.6% | 5.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.4% | -1.0% | -0.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | 13.6% | 17.5% | 19.5% |
| 2/22/2024 | -4.1% | -8.0% | 0.8% |
| 11/2/2023 | 9.9% | 11.5% | 23.8% |
| 8/1/2023 | -2.4% | 0.2% | -4.0% |
| 5/2/2023 | -9.1% | -10.5% | -11.2% |
| 2/21/2023 | -1.6% | 7.0% | -9.6% |
| 10/25/2022 | 4.9% | 21.8% | 30.6% |
| 7/27/2022 | 3.7% | 6.3% | 10.5% |
| 4/27/2022 | -8.1% | -9.0% | -22.1% |
| 2/17/2022 | -0.2% | -2.2% | 16.4% |
| 10/21/2021 | 3.1% | -1.6% | -3.6% |
| 7/22/2021 | 1.5% | 4.6% | 8.3% |
| 4/22/2021 | -5.5% | -0.1% | -1.2% |
| 2/24/2021 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -8.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -5.6% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 24.8% | 30.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.1% | -11.6% | -22.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/17/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Industry Deliveries | Reported | 25000 | 25000 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 25000 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Net Fleet Investment | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 350.00 Mil | -7.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 350.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.3 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating and Administrative Capital Expenditures | Reported | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 60.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Industry railcar deliveries | Reported | 25000 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25000 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net fleet investment | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 350.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | -12.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating margin | Reported | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 0 | Affirmed | ||
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.3 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating and administrative capital expenditures | Reported | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 60.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Non-cash gain | Reported | 130.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Industry railcar deliveries | Reported | 25000 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25000 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net fleet investment | Reported | 350.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | -20.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 16.5% | Raised | Guidance: 1.98 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating and administrative capital expenditures | Reported | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 60.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Industry railcar deliveries | Reported | 25000 | -18.0% | Lower New | Actual: 30500 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Net fleet investment | Reported | 450.00 Mil | 500.00 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 66.7% | Higher New | Actual: 300.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Railcar backlog delivery percentage | Reported | 0.49 | ||||||
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 1.85 | 1.98 | 2.1 | 21.5% | Higher New | Actual: 1.63 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating and administrative capital expenditures | Reported | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 20.0% | Higher New | Actual: 50.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poet, Kevin | EVP Operations & Support Svcs | Direct | Sell | 8262026 | 29.55 | 17,000 | 502,350 | 2,045,599 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poet, Kevin | EVP Operations & Support Svcs | Direct | Sell | 8262026 | 29.55 | 17,000 | 502,350 | 2,045,599 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment Resources |
| Equipment World |
| Construction Equipment |
| OEM Off-Highway |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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