Tearsheet

Trinity Industries (TRN)


Market Price (11/26/2025): $26.38 | Market Cap: $2.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Trinity Industries (TRN)


Market Price (11/26/2025): $26.38
Market Cap: $2.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 277%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -43%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight. Themes include Freight Technology, Railcar Manufacturing & Leasing, and Sustainable Freight Solutions.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight. Themes include Freight Technology, Railcar Manufacturing & Leasing, and Sustainable Freight Solutions.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 277%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -43%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TRN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for Trinity Industries (TRN) stock movement analysis, from July 31, 2025, to the current date (November 26, 2025), falls entirely in the future. As such, it is not possible to provide an analysis of past stock movements for this specific future period. However, I can provide information regarding recent events and stock performance of Trinity Industries up to the most recent available data, which includes some information about future expectations as reported in past earnings releases. Based on the latest available information, a 14.4% stock movement for TRN within the requested future timeframe cannot be reported. However, some recent financial and operational highlights and forecasts for Trinity Industries have been reported. Here are some key points from recent reports relevant to Trinity Industries: **1. Q2 2025 Financial Results Showed Revenue Decline but Improved Orders.** Trinity Industries reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings with GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.19 and GAAP revenue of $506 million, which missed analyst estimates. Revenue was down nearly 40% compared to the prior-year quarter. However, the company observed a sequential pickup in orders, with new railcar orders reaching 2,310 units and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3x for the first time in ten quarters, indicating improving demand. **2. Q4 2024 Results Highlighted Increased EPS and Strong Lease Fleet Performance.** Trinity Industries announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on February 20, 2025. The company reported full-year adjusted EPS of $1.82, a 32% increase over 2023. This was driven by higher lease rates, improved margin performance, and increased external repairs. The lease fleet utilization was 97.0%, and the Future Lease Rate Differential (FLRD) was a positive 24.3% at year-end. **3. 2025 Guidance Projects Continued Leasing Revenue Improvement Despite Lower Deliveries.** For 2025, Trinity Industries provided EPS guidance of $1.50 to $1.80. This guidance reflects an expectation of continued leasing revenue improvement and consistent operating margins. However, it also anticipates lower industry deliveries, projected to be around 28,000 to 33,000 railcars, a decrease from 2024. **4. Railcar Leasing and Services Segment Demonstrated Resilience.** The Railcar Leasing and Services segment showed strong performance with a utilization rate of 96.8% and an FLRD of 18.3% in Q2 2025, indicating a balanced industry fleet. This segment experienced a 7.5% year-over-year revenue increase as the company continued to re-price its lease fleet upward. **5. Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets Indicate a "Hold" Consensus.** As of late 2025, Trinity Industries has received a consensus "Hold" rating from analysts, based on two hold ratings and no buy or sell ratings. The average 12-month price target is $27.00, with a high forecast of $31.00 and a low forecast of $23.00, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 5.39% from a recent price of $25.62.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TRN Return24%18%1%-6%37%-22%49%
Peers Return13%22%-1%18%4%-2%62%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TRN Win Rate58%58%42%33%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate57%62%40%50%57%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TRN Max Drawdown-33%-3%-27%-29%-9%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-3%-22%-11%-15%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: R, LSTR, WERN, HTLD, CAT. See TRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/25/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTRNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven281 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven66 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-44.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven80.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven477 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven641.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1703 days1480 days

Compare to R, LSTR, WERN, HTLD, CAT


In The Past

Trinity Industries's stock fell -43.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/25/2022. A -43.0% loss requires a 75.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Trinity Industries (TRN)

Better Bets than Trinity Industries (TRN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.0%-8.0%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.1%-4.1%-12.2%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.0%-4.0%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.4%-4.4%-10.8%
TRN_4302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302025TRNTrinity IndustriesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%7.4%-6.2%
TRN_5312019_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312019TRNTrinity IndustriesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.2%7.7%-21.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.0%-8.0%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.1%-4.1%-12.2%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.0%-4.0%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.4%-4.4%-10.8%
TRN_4302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302025TRNTrinity IndustriesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%7.4%-6.2%
TRN_5312019_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312019TRNTrinity IndustriesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.2%7.7%-21.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Trinity Industries

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TRNRLSTRWERNHTLDCATMedian
NameTrinity .Ryder Sy.Landstar.Werner E.Heartlan.Caterpil. 
Mkt Price26.38172.38130.7625.207.79566.6178.57
Mkt Cap2.17.04.51.50.6266.13.3
Rev LTM2,17512,7084,7792,99193263,1393,885
Op Inc LTM3661,11219554-4411,510281
FCF LTM-396-88199-55-317,740-43
FCF 3Y Avg-335-458316-8828,349-43
CFO LTM3842,40321319112011,373299
CFO 3Y Avg3692,32934034716411,517358

Growth & Margins

TRNRLSTRWERNHTLDCATMedian
NameTrinity .Ryder Sy.Landstar.Werner E.Heartlan.Caterpil. 
Rev Chg LTM-33.0%1.3%-0.7%-3.4%-16.4%-4.9%-4.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.1%2.0%-14.1%-2.1%23.2%5.8%3.9%
Rev Chg Q-43.2%-0.3%-0.7%3.5%-23.4%-0.7%-0.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-13.7%-0.1%-0.2%0.9%-6.5%-0.2%-0.2%
Op Mgn LTM16.8%8.8%4.1%1.8%-4.8%18.2%6.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.4%8.8%5.3%3.9%-0.8%18.8%7.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.8%0.0%-0.1%-1.0%-1.7%-0.9%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM17.6%18.9%4.5%6.4%12.9%18.0%15.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.8%18.7%6.5%10.9%14.6%17.8%14.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-18.2%-0.7%4.2%-1.8%-3.4%12.3%-1.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.2%-3.7%6.0%-2.7%-0.0%12.9%-1.4%

Valuation

TRNRLSTRWERNHTLDCATMedian
NameTrinity .Ryder Sy.Landstar.Werner E.Heartlan.Caterpil. 
Mkt Cap2.17.04.51.50.6266.13.3
P/S1.00.60.90.50.74.20.8
P/EBIT5.06.423.119.8-18.621.813.1
P/E22.314.032.959.6-17.028.225.2
P/CFO5.52.921.27.95.123.46.7
Total Yield9.1%9.2%5.8%4.0%-5.9%4.6%5.2%
Dividend Yield4.6%2.0%2.7%2.3%0.0%1.0%2.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-15.5%-8.5%5.4%-4.0%-0.4%5.4%-2.2%
D/E2.81.30.00.50.30.20.4
Net D/E2.81.2-0.10.40.30.10.4

Returns

TRNRLSTRWERNHTLDCATMedian
NameTrinity .Ryder Sy.Landstar.Werner E.Heartlan.Caterpil. 
1M Rtn-6.7%7.4%0.8%-9.0%-3.2%8.4%-1.2%
3M Rtn-6.6%-7.4%-1.0%-12.6%-9.1%31.8%-7.0%
6M Rtn3.7%14.3%-4.9%-3.4%-13.5%62.2%0.1%
12M Rtn-27.4%3.8%-27.7%-36.2%-37.2%41.8%-27.6%
3Y Rtn-2.4%92.8%-19.6%-38.9%-52.3%153.0%-11.0%
1M Excs Rtn-4.9%4.6%2.8%-6.7%-1.6%9.1%0.6%
3M Excs Rtn-11.8%-11.8%-5.8%-16.5%-13.2%26.9%-11.8%
6M Excs Rtn-9.5%1.1%-18.5%-17.6%-28.0%48.3%-13.5%
12M Excs Rtn-39.8%-4.6%-39.2%-48.4%-49.4%33.9%-39.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-70.0%34.8%-87.0%-109.6%-122.0%87.1%-78.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rail Products Group2,4792,0751,2651,6102,975
Railcar Leasing and Services Group1,0417717358021,117
Elimination of intersegment revenues-537    
Corporate and other 0   
Eliminations - Lease subsidiary -867-478-653-1,331
Eliminations - Other -1-6-9-17
All Other    261
Total2,9831,9771,5161,7503,005


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Railcar Leasing and Services Group438423351354407
Rail Products Group11359536278
Restructuring activities, net2-14-11-15
Eliminations-27    
Corporate and other-108-81-84-100-108
Eliminations - Lease subsidiary -65-17-35-165
Eliminations - Other -1-1-2-0
Impairment of long-lived assets   -396 
All Other    20
Total417334257-155416


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Railcar Leasing and Services Group8,1197,7807,5857,6528,013
Rail Products Group1,1891,4401,0648591,020
Corporate and other286267365833378
Eliminations-688    
Eliminations - Lease subsidiary -763-779-820-904
Assets of discontinued operations   178 
All Other    196
Eliminations - Other    -1
Total8,9068,7248,2368,7028,701


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,668,460
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.2%
Average Daily Volume669,992
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.98
Basic Shares Quantity80,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-2.8%-5.6% 
7/31/2025-6.7%8.0%14.5%
5/1/2025-2.9%-3.9%2.5%
2/20/2025-8.3%-8.9%-13.4%
10/31/2024-4.1%3.6%5.5%
8/1/202410.4%-1.0%-0.6%
2/22/2024-4.1%-8.0%0.8%
11/2/20239.9%11.5%23.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive5711
# Negative161410
Median Positive5.6%6.3%6.5%
Median Negative-4.4%-5.4%-11.2%
Max Positive10.4%21.8%30.6%
Max Negative-9.1%-12.5%-22.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Mitchell Gregory BEVP Leasing and Services3042025Sell31.029,286288,0523,470,487Form
1Biesterfeld Robert C Jr 1032025Buy23.84491,1681,168Form
2Mitchell Gregory BEVP Leasing and Services11192024Sell37.1520,510761,9464,501,280Form