T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $216.5 | Market Cap: $240.5 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $216.5Market Cap: $240.5 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.4% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -19% | Key risksTMUS key risks include [1] a documented history of major data breaches resulting in significant financial penalties and [2] heightened regulatory scrutiny and compliance mandates stemming directly from these cybersecurity failures. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 28 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 28 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -19% |
| Key risksTMUS key risks include [1] a documented history of major data breaches resulting in significant financial penalties and [2] heightened regulatory scrutiny and compliance mandates stemming directly from these cybersecurity failures. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. T-Mobile reported robust fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, surpassing analyst expectations and issuing an optimistic multi-year outlook.
The company announced adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.14 for Q4 2025, exceeding analyst forecasts of $2.04. Total revenue for the quarter reached $24.33 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, also beating consensus expectations. Service revenues grew 10% year-over-year to $18.7 billion. T-Mobile further projected strong growth for 2026 and 2027, anticipating 2026 service revenues to reach approximately $77 billion (an 8% increase from $71.3 billion in 2025) and 2027 service revenues between $80.5 billion and $81.5 billion. Core Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be $37.0–$37.5 billion in 2026, rising to $40.0–$41.0 billion in 2027, with Adjusted Free Cash Flow expected to reach up to $20.5 billion by 2027.
2. The company demonstrated industry-leading customer growth and strengthened its network differentiation.
T-Mobile reported "best-in-class customer results" in Q4 2025, including 2.4 million total postpaid net customer additions and 7.8 million for the full year 2025, both leading the industry. The broadband segment also showed significant expansion, with 558,000 net customer additions in Q4 2025 and 2.0 million for the full year. T-Mobile aims to reach 18-19 million broadband customers by 2030. Furthermore, T-Mobile was rated highest for network quality in five out of six regions in the J.D. Power 2026 U.S. Wireless Network Quality Study, reinforcing its competitive advantage, particularly with its mid-band 2.5GHz spectrum.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.4% change in TMUS stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 208.01 | 217.09 | 4.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 85,847 | 88,309 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 12.4% | -10.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 21.9 | 11.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,124 | 1,111 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 4.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | -17.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 2.8% | 12.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.7% change in TMUS stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 235.27 | 217.09 | -7.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 84,052 | 88,309 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.5% | 12.4% | -14.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.8 | 21.9 | 0.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,133 | 1,111 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -7.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | -17.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 10.3% | 13.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.9% change in TMUS stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 228.29 | 217.09 | -4.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81,400 | 88,309 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.9% | 12.4% | -10.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.2 | 21.9 | -5.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,155 | 1,111 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | 16.3% | 27.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.2% change in TMUS stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 549.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 143.56 | 217.09 | 51.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 80,083 | 88,309 | 10.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.9% | 12.4% | 549.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 117.3 | 21.9 | -81.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,254 | 1,111 | 12.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 51.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 17.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 120.7% | 23.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMUS Return | -14% | 21% | 15% | 40% | -7% | 5% | 64% |
| Peers Return | -1% | -27% | 26% | 25% | -3% | 13% | 23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMUS Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 40% | 55% | 58% | 58% | 80% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMUS Max Drawdown | -21% | -12% | -10% | 0% | -10% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -38% | -16% | -15% | -17% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: T, VZ, CMCSA, CHTR, TDS. See TMUS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 589.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,545 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to T, VZ, CMCSA, CHTR, TDS
In The Past
T-Mobile US's stock fell -32.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -32.0% loss requires a 47.0% gain to breakeven.
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About T-Mobile US (TMUS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The Netflix of phone plans (for its focus on simplified, value-driven subscription services).
- The Southwest Airlines of wireless carriers (for its history of disrupting the industry with customer-friendly policies and value).
- Like Verizon for mobile phone service in the US.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Wireless Mobile Services: Provides cellular voice, text, and high-speed data connectivity for smartphones, tablets, and other mobile devices.
- 5G Home Internet: Offers fixed wireless broadband internet access for residential customers leveraging its 5G network infrastructure.
- Business Solutions: Delivers comprehensive wireless communication plans, IoT connectivity, and managed services tailored for businesses of all sizes.
- Mobile Devices & Accessories: Sells a diverse selection of smartphones, tablets, wearables, and related accessories from leading brands.
- Prepaid Mobile Services (Metro by T-Mobile): Provides affordable, no-contract mobile plans and devices through its dedicated prepaid brand.
AI Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US (TMUS) primarily sells its wireless communication services to individuals and small businesses. While it has a growing enterprise segment, its core customer base consists of subscribers to its mobile network.
Based on this, T-Mobile serves the following categories of customers:
- Postpaid Customers: This is T-Mobile's largest and most valuable customer segment. These customers typically subscribe to monthly plans under a contract or payment agreement, often financing devices directly through T-Mobile. This category includes individual consumers, families, and many small business customers who manage multiple lines under a single account.
- Prepaid Customers: T-Mobile also serves a significant base of prepaid customers, who pay for their services in advance without a long-term contract or credit check. This segment is often served through its Metro by T-Mobile brand, as well as T-Mobile-branded prepaid options.
- Business and Government Customers: T-Mobile has a dedicated division serving businesses of all sizes, from small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to large enterprises and government entities. These customers often require specialized plans, bulk device purchases, managed services, and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions tailored to their operational needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Mike Sievert, Vice Chairman (Effective November 1, 2025)
Mike Sievert is the current Chief Executive Officer, President, and Board Director of T-Mobile US, a role he has held since 2020. On November 1, 2025, he will transition to the role of Vice Chairman of the company and its board of directors. Sievert joined T-Mobile in 2012 and was instrumental in shaping the "Un-carrier" strategy, having served as President, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief Marketing Officer. Prior to T-Mobile, he held leadership positions at Microsoft, AT&T, E*TRADE, IBM, and Procter & Gamble. He co-founded Switchbox Labs, a consumer technologies developer, which was acquired by Lenovo in 2009. Sievert also served as Chief Commercial Officer at Clearwire Corporation. He currently serves on the Starbucks board of directors.
Srini Gopalan, Chief Executive Officer (Effective November 1, 2025)
Srini Gopalan will become the Chief Executive Officer of T-Mobile US on November 1, 2025. He currently serves as the Chief Operating Officer, a position he assumed in 2023 after having served on T-Mobile's board for five years.
Peter Osvaldik, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of T-Mobile US, a role he assumed on July 1, 2020. He oversees finance, supply chain, and related operations for the company. Osvaldik joined T-Mobile in 2016 as Vice President of External Reporting and Technical Accounting and later became Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer. Before his time at T-Mobile, he held Chief Accounting Officer, Controller, and managerial roles at Outerwall Inc. (formerly Coinstar) and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Jon Freier, President, Consumer Group
Jon Freier serves as the President of T-Mobile's Consumer Group, leading consumer marketing, digital excellence, retail sales and distribution, customer care, and various operational functions. His journey with T-Mobile began in 1994 with its predecessor company, Western Wireless, where he started on the frontlines. He has been instrumental in integrating multiple acquired companies for T-Mobile. Previously, Freier was the Executive Director of Sales & Marketing for the U.S. Department of Justice Divestiture Trust for Western Wireless, and held roles as Regional Vice President & General Manager for the North Texas/Oklahoma Region and Executive Vice President of Consumer Marketing for Deutsche Telekom.
Ulf Ewaldsson, President of Technology
Ulf Ewaldsson assumed the role of President of Technology at T-Mobile US after Neville Ray's retirement in Fall 2023. He joined T-Mobile in 2019 as Senior Vice-President for Technology Transformation and later became Chief Network Officer in 2021. Before joining T-Mobile, Ewaldsson had a distinguished 27-year career at Ericsson, where his positions included Group CTO, Head of Digital Services, and Advisor to the CEO. He is recognized for his contributions to developing and globalizing industry standards such as 3G, 4G, and 5G.
AI Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US (TMUS) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance. The most significant risk stems from its ongoing vulnerability to **cybersecurity threats and data breaches**. T-Mobile has a documented history of data breaches, resulting in the exposure of millions of customer records containing sensitive personal information. These incidents have led to substantial financial penalties, including a $60 million fine from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) and a $15.75 million civil penalty from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for failing to prevent and report unauthorized access to sensitive data and for multiple cybersecurity incidents between 2021 and 2023. The increasing sophistication of cyberattacks poses a continuous risk of financial costs and damage to the company's reputation. Another major risk is the **intense competition and market saturation** within the wireless industry. T-Mobile operates in a highly competitive market against major players such as AT&T, Verizon, and increasingly, cable companies offering mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) services. This intense competition often leads to price wars and aggressive promotional strategies, which can threaten T-Mobile's market share, pricing power, and profit margins. As the market matures, slowing subscriber growth also makes customer acquisition and retention more challenging. T-Mobile's expansion into the fixed-wireless broadband market also introduces additional competitive risks and the need for significant investments. Finally, T-Mobile is exposed to significant **regulatory challenges and compliance obligations**. The company faces scrutiny and potential costs related to spectrum acquisition and licensing, as well as broader regulatory changes. Recent events highlight the impact of regulatory bodies, such as the FCC requiring T-Mobile to revamp its cybersecurity infrastructure and implement data minimization and zero-trust architecture following data breaches. Furthermore, political pressure and regulatory hurdles can influence strategic business decisions, as seen in T-Mobile's actions to secure FCC approval for mergers and acquisitions.AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence of satellite direct-to-device connectivity presents a clear threat to T-Mobile's traditional cellular network model. Companies like AST SpaceMobile and Lynk Global are actively developing and deploying technology that aims to connect standard smartphones directly to satellites, bypassing the need for terrestrial cell towers for basic communication services (text, voice, and low-bandwidth data). While T-Mobile has entered into a partnership with Starlink to explore similar capabilities, the independent development and potential widespread adoption of this technology by other players could fundamentally alter the landscape for universal coverage and reduce reliance on traditional cellular infrastructure, particularly in remote or underserved areas, thereby commoditizing a core aspect of T-Mobile's business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US (TMUS) operates primarily in the United States, offering a range of wireless communication services and related products. The addressable markets for its main products and services are substantial within this region.
Main Products and Services:
- Wireless Communication Plans: T-Mobile offers postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale wireless communication plans, including voice, text messaging, and data services. These plans often include smartphones, wearables, and tablets.
- 5G Network Services: The company provides nationwide 5G network access, which is a core offering for both mobile and home internet services. T-Mobile's 5G network covers more than 330 million people across two million square miles in the U.S..
- Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Home Internet: T-Mobile offers home internet service utilizing its 5G network.
- Business Solutions: This includes wireless plans, data solutions, collaboration tools, and IoT connectivity designed for businesses.
Addressable Market Sizes (U.S. Region):
1. U.S. Wireless Telecommunication Services Market:
The overall U.S. wireless telecommunication services market, which encompasses cellular/mobile telephone services and wireless internet services, was valued at approximately $340.3 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow to approximately $416.26 billion by 2030, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.86% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate indicates a market value of around $450.2 billion in 2025, with a projected growth to approximately $960.8 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 7.9% from 2025 to 2035.
2. U.S. 5G Market:
- U.S. 5G Enterprise Market: This segment, focusing on 5G solutions for businesses, was valued at $2.58 billion in 2024. It is anticipated to experience significant growth, reaching an estimated $255.73 billion by 2034, with a high CAGR of 59.7% from 2025 to 2034.
- U.S. 5G Infrastructure Market: The market for 5G infrastructure in the U.S. was valued at approximately $3.9 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to about $20.14 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 19.9%, or reach $24.9 billion by the end of 2035 at a CAGR of 20.2%.
3. U.S. Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Market:
The U.S. 5G Fixed Wireless Access market is a rapidly expanding segment. In 2025, its size is projected to be between $8.94 billion and $16.35 billion. This market is expected to reach approximately $288.9 billion by 2030 and could be worth around $343.18 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 40.22% from 2025 to 2034. North America held the largest share of the global 5G fixed wireless access market in 2024, at 36%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US (TMUS) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:- Continued Postpaid Customer Growth: T-Mobile consistently projects robust postpaid net additions, including both phone and account growth. The company has raised its full-year expectations for total postpaid net additions, with strong performance in this segment and the integration of UScellular customers contributing to an expanding customer base.
- Expansion of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and Fiber Broadband: T-Mobile is actively growing its home internet services, both through 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and strategic fiber deployments. The company has a significant waiting list for FWA and has increased its long-term target for FWA subscribers to 12 million by 2028. Acquisitions and joint ventures, such as Metronet and Lumos, are integral to its fiber strategy, aiming to expand fiber passings and provide complementary connectivity options.
- Growth in Business Services (T-Mobile for Business): T-Mobile for Business (TFB) is identified as a significant growth engine, with expectations of a double-digit service revenue compound annual growth rate from 2023 to 2027. This growth is anticipated from deploying enhanced digital tools and extending leadership across small to mid-market companies, as well as enterprise and government sectors.
- Increase in Postpaid Average Revenue Per Account (ARPA): T-Mobile anticipates sustained growth in postpaid ARPA. This is expected to be driven by deepening customer relationships and a broadening mix of premium ARPA, reflecting customers opting for higher-value plans and services.
- Enhanced Network Differentiation and 5G Leadership: T-Mobile plans to leverage its leading 5G network, including advanced network deployments and satellite capabilities with SpaceX, to attract and retain customers. The company views improving network perception as a substantial opportunity to capture market share from customers who previously prioritized other networks during the 4G era.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- T-Mobile authorized a stock repurchase program for up to $14.0 billion in September 2022.
- A shareholder return program of up to $19 billion was announced for the period from Q4 2023 to the end of 2024, encompassing both share repurchases and dividends.
- A new shareholder return program of up to an initial $14.0 billion was authorized in December 2024, running through December 31, 2025, which is part of a broader strategy to allocate up to $50 billion for share repurchases and cash dividends through 2027.
Share Issuance
- As part of the Sprint merger in 2020, Sprint shareholders received a fixed exchange ratio of 0.10256 T-Mobile shares for each Sprint share.
- In 2020, T-Mobile was required to issue 48,751,557 shares of common stock to SoftBank.
- T-Mobile's shares outstanding declined by 4.39% in 2023 and 2.26% in 2024.
Outbound Investments
- T-Mobile acquired UScellular's assets, with the transaction expected to close by August 1, 2025, aiming to expand its network footprint and competitive advantage.
- The company expanded into fiber broadband through joint ventures with KKR and EQT, including the completion of the Lumos JV in April 2025 and the imminent close of the MetroNet JV.
- T-Mobile acquired Ka'ena in Q2 2024, which added 3,504,000 prepaid customers.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $9.8 billion in 2023, and the company guided for approximately $9.0 billion at the midpoint for full-year 2024.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2025 were initially $9.5 billion, but were later raised to approximately $10 billion, primarily due to the inclusion of UScellular assets.
- Between 2020 and 2022, T-Mobile spent over $37 billion on integrating the Sprint network and expanding its 5G footprint, with ongoing investments focused on extending its 5G leadership and fiber deployment.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 12192025 | DIS | Walt Disney | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.6% | -5.6% | -8.0% |
| 12192025 | WMG | Warner Music | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | -11.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 155.6 |
| Rev LTM | 106,008 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,614 |
| FCF LTM | 17,331 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,983 |
| CFO LTM | 30,796 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 26,436 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 155.6 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 6.6 |
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/CFO | 5.3 |
| Total Yield | 12.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 58.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 18.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid revenues | 48,692 | 45,919 | 42,562 | 36,306 | 22,673 |
| Equipment revenues | 14,138 | 17,130 | 20,727 | 17,312 | 9,840 |
| Prepaid revenues | 9,767 | 9,857 | 9,733 | 9,421 | 9,543 |
| Wholesale and other service revenues | 4,782 | 5,547 | 6,074 | ||
| Other revenues | 1,179 | 1,118 | 1,022 | 690 | 658 |
| Other service revenues | 2,078 | ||||
| Wholesale revenues | 2,590 | 1,279 | |||
| Roaming and other service revenues | 1,005 | ||||
| Total | 78,558 | 79,571 | 80,118 | 68,397 | 44,998 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $217.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 244.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/19/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $199.60 | $221.24 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 8.8% | -1.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.6% | 27.4% |
| Downside Capture | -84.02 | 2.84 |
| Upside Capture | -53.83 | -15.21 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -19.3% | 14.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.29 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.20 | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Up Beta | 1.43 | -0.07 | -0.54 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Down Beta | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| Up Capture | -50% | -43% | -20% | -47% | -3% | 9% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 30 | 57 | 128 | 408 |
| Down Capture | 7% | 3% | 13% | -31% | 19% | 44% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 31 | 68 | 123 | 342 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -16.0% | 27.3% | -0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 17.4% | 18.8% | 0.72 | 27.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 19.4% | 0.66 | 14.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 81.3% | 25.7% | 2.29 | -5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 16.9% | 0.58 | -8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 16.6% | 0.25 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.2% | 44.9% | -0.37 | -11.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 13.9% | 23.7% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 11.4% | 20.8% | 0.46 | 34.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 34.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 17.1% | 1.12 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.44 | 2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 32.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.5% | 57.0% | 0.30 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 20.7% | 25.9% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.7% | 22.4% | 0.53 | 48.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 48.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 39.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | 5.1% | 6.9% | |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.3% | -5.4% | -7.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 5.8% | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -11.2% | -5.8% | -7.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 19.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.7% | 0.8% | 7.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.9% | 8.3% | 14.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | -0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 17 | 15 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -4.5% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -5.8% | -9.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long, Letitia A | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 210.32 | 1,457 | 306,436 | 1,143,720 | Form | |
| 2 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 216.97 | 22,500 | 4,881,825 | 66,977,759 | Form | |
| 3 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 214.25 | 22,500 | 4,820,625 | 61,317,481 | Form | |
| 4 | Katz, Michael J | Pres, Mkting Stgy & Prods | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 215.91 | 2,500 | 539,775 | 33,725,686 | Form |
| 5 | Gopalan, Srini | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 201.82 | 9,800 | 1,977,836 | 18,215,870 | Form |
TMUS Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis reveals a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 2.85x. This is driven by the company's widening competitive moat, strong execution on its primary growth drivers (postpaid and FWA), and a valuation that, while at a premium, is justified by superior performance. The primary risk of competition is manageable as long as the core network advantage remains intact, making the bull case significantly more likely than the bear case.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowT-Mobile fits the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype as it operates in a stable, mature market, demonstrates superior and accelerating free cash flow generation, and has shifted its focus to include large-scale capital returns (buybacks) alongside market share gains.
INVESTMENT THESIS
T-Mobile is leveraging its demonstrable lead in mid-band 5G network performance to consistently take market share in the high-margin postpaid phone segment while simultaneously attacking the large US broadband market with its rapidly growing Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) product. This two-pronged growth engine is driving superior revenue growth and accelerating free cash flow.
- Industry-leading postpaid phone net additions of 1.0 million in Q3 2025, significantly outpacing competitors.
- Rapid growth in the new FWA product, with 2.1 million net additions in FY2025.
- Third-party validation of network superiority, with median 5G download speeds more than double its nearest competitor (Ookla H2 2025).
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is the intensification of competition from cable companies (Comcast, Charter) and a newly aggressive Verizon. Cable providers are successfully bundling mobile services with their core broadband product, capturing a significant portion of industry net adds, while Verizon has publicly pivoted to a volume-based growth strategy. This could slow T-Mobile's growth rate and pressure margins.
- Cable MVNOs captured 45% of all new wireless customers in 2025.
- Verizon's stated 2026 strategy is to focus on 'volume-based growth' and no longer be a 'hunting ground' for competitors.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Postpaid Phone Net Additions | Quarterly additions > 750k | This is the primary engine of high-margin service revenue growth. Sustaining levels well above competitors is critical to validating the Alpha thesis. |
| High-Speed Internet Net Additions | Quarterly additions > 500k | This is the 'new product layer' and the key to extending the company's growth runway. Deceleration here would signal market saturation or intensifying competition sooner than expected. |
| Postpaid Phone Churn | Remains below 1.0% | A significant increase in churn would be the first quantitative evidence that the 'Anti-Alpha' (competitive pressure) is successfully eroding T-Mobile's customer base and pricing power. |
Network Superiority vs. Competitive Price Pressure
BULL VIEW
The 5G network advantage is a durable moat, driving sustained, best-in-class postpaid and fixed wireless share gains, justifying the premium valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can T-Mobile's 5G network lead sustain premium growth and valuation against intensifying price competition from cable bundles and a resurgent Verizon?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Bulls are winning. Q3 2025 postpaid phone net additions hit a record 1.0 million, accelerating sequentially and significantly outpacing competitors, prompting a full-year guidance raise.
BEAR VIEW
The network gap is closing. Aggressive bundling from cable and price competition from Verizon will inevitably slow growth and compress margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Watch: FY2026 guidance for postpaid phone net additions. The market will watch for any deceleration from 2025's strong performance. |
Late April 2026 | Verizon & AT&T Q1 2026 Earnings Watch: Competitor postpaid phone net additions. Evidence of share loss to Verizon's new aggressive strategy would be a major red flag. |
April/May 2026 | Comcast & Charter Q1 2026 Earnings Watch: Cable wireless net additions. Continued acceleration confirms the structural threat from converged bundling is growing. |
Next Quarter | FCC Regulatory Action Watch: A Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) targeting spectrum concentration or carrier-imposed administrative fees. |
Monthly | Monthly Consumer Credit Data Release Watch: 90+ day delinquency rates from the Federal Reserve. A sequential increase signals worsening consumer health. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
9/8/2025 | Investor Conference Presentation Details: Following a presentation at a major investor conference, the stock traded down, possibly on concerns about the broader macroeconomic outlook discussed. | Fell notably by -3.9% $251.51 -> $241.70 |
10/23/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite beating estimates and raising guidance with a record 1M postpaid phone net adds, the stock fell, suggesting lofty investor expectations were not fully met. | Fell notably by -3.3% $226.27 -> $218.90 |
11/11/2025 | New 'Un-carrier' Initiative Launch Details: The company launched a new 'Un-carrier' initiative focused on enhancing customer value, which was well-received by the market, driving the stock up significantly. | Rose significantly by 3.0% $204.85 -> $210.93 |
12/2/2025 | Strategic Partnership Announcement Details: T-Mobile announced a new strategic partnership to bundle additional services, reinforcing its value proposition. The stock posted a modest gain on the news. | Modest 1.7% gain $206.63 -> $210.13 |
1/12/2026 | Regulatory and Fee Scrutiny Details: T-Mobile increased its 'Regulatory Programs & Telco Recovery Fee', leading to negative customer sentiment and highlighting potential regulatory risk around carrier-imposed fees. | Slight -1.5% pullback $200.56 -> $197.51 |
1/23/2026 | Competitor Strategic Pivot Details: Key competitor Verizon announced an aggressive 2026 strategy to focus on 'volume-based growth', signaling heightened competition. T-Mobile's stock saw a muted reaction. | Flat (0.3%) $185.39 -> $186.03 |
Position Sizing
7%-10%
AGGRESSIVE
Stock is in a Moderate Volatility regime with compressing near-term fear. The fundamental backdrop is a 'fat pitch': Bullish sentiment, a widening moat, and high visibility justify an aggressive allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
AMT
SECTORInsulated from the wireless carrier price war. AMT is a landlord to TMUS, VZ, and T, benefiting from overall data demand growth regardless of who wins the subscriber battle.
CCI
SECTORA pure-play on US 5G network densification. Avoids the subscriber competition risk of T-Mobile while having less international exposure and currency risk than its closest peer, AMT.
T-Mobile is transforming from a challenger brand disrupting incumbents to a scaled telecommunications leader leveraging its 5G network and fixed wireless to drive profitable subscriber and free cash flow growth.
All news should be filtered through the lens of T-Mobile's ability to sustain subscriber growth, particularly in postpaid and broadband, while improving profitability and shareholder returns amidst a competitive landscape.
Reports of strong postpaid phone and broadband net additions exceeding 900k-1M per year, increased postpaid phone ARPU above $50.71, expansion into new enterprise markets with 5G, higher-than-expected Core Adjusted EBITDA (above $37.5B) or Adjusted FCF (above $18.7B), and successful scaling of the broadband customer base towards 18-19M by 2030.
Indications of renewed intense price competition from Verizon or AT&T leading to lower ARPU or higher churn, significant decline in postpaid or broadband net additions below guidance, increased regulatory scrutiny on the 5G network or spectrum holdings, or any major network outage impacting customer perception and churn.
General industry reports on smartphone sales or handset technology updates are noise, as T-Mobile's re-rate is driven by its service and broadband subscription growth, not primarily device sales margins. Coverage of minor executive changes without direct impact on strategy is also noise.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful scaling of T-Mobile's fixed wireless broadband business, targeting 18-19M broadband customers by 2030, is expected to contribute billions in incremental high-margin service revenue annually, combined with sustained free cash flow growth expected to be $18.0B-$18.7B in FY2026, driving a re-rating based on its diversified growth profile.
Postpaid Mobile Service
$53.5B TTM (60.56% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Recurring monthly wireless service plans (including voice, text, data) for smartphones, tablets, and fixed wireless broadband, leveraging the 5G network; device financing for Apple iPhones, Samsung Galaxy phones, Google Pixels, etc.
Who Pays & How
Over 100 million mass-market consumers and business accounts (e.g., small businesses, enterprises) in the US pay recurring monthly fees for mobile connectivity and device financing. Lock-in is driven by multi-year device financing agreements and perception of leading 5G network quality and value.
Competition
Prepaid Mobile Service
$14.3B TTM (16.15% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Low-cost, no-contract mobile wireless service plans, typically without device financing, offered under brands like Metro by T-Mobile and T-Mobile Prepaid.
Who Pays & How
Price-sensitive consumers seeking flexible, budget-friendly mobile plans. Customers are attracted by competitive pricing and the ability to use the T-Mobile network without long-term commitments.
Competition
Wholesale Service
$3.6B TTM (4.04% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Network access and roaming services provided to Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) and other telecommunication carriers, allowing them to offer mobile services using T-Mobile's infrastructure.
Who Pays & How
MVNOs (e.g., Mint Mobile, Google Fi) and other carriers pay for access to T-Mobile's network to serve their own customer bases. Payments are driven by volume of usage and negotiated access rates.
Competition
Equipment Sales
$17.0B TTM (19.25% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Sales of mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, wearables, fixed wireless gateways) from manufacturers like Apple, Samsung, and Google, often bundled with service plans.
Who Pays & How
New and existing subscribers purchasing or upgrading their mobile devices, often through installment plans. Customers pay for the latest technology and seamless integration with T-Mobile's network.
Competition
External Quote Links
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