Toyota Motor (TM)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $197.88 | Market Cap: $257.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Toyota Motor (TM)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $197.88Market Cap: $257.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 2114%, Dividend Yield is 457%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 2110% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.4% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 8716% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Tril | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40% | |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 2114%, Dividend Yield is 457%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 2110% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Tril |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.4% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40% |
Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 8716% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
TM Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
TM Return | 14% | 22% | -26% | 34% | 6% | 0% | 38% |
Peers Return | 3% | 65% | -44% | 6% | -23% | 3% | -20% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
TM Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 33% | |
Peers Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 40% | 53% | 37% | 51% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
TM Max Drawdown | -23% | -9% | -30% | -2% | -9% | -18% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -2% | -47% | -21% | -37% | -18% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MBGAF, VWAGY, HMC, RIVN, LCID. See TM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | TM | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -38.4% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 494 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -24.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -19.2% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 23.8% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 309 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -58.1% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 138.9% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 2178 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Toyota Motor's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2022. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.2% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
Stacking Up TM Against Its Peers - Is It Still a Buy? | |||
null | |||
Toyota Motor (TM) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
Toyota Motor (TM) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Toyota Motor (TM) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Toyota Motor (TM) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Toyota Motor (TM) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Toyota Motor (TM) Stock Has 50% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
Dates Cached For TM | |||
Toyota Motor Stock Return Comparison | Return | ||
ARTICLES | |||
Down 20% Over The Last Month, Is Toyota Stock Attractive? | August 8th, 2024 | ||
Hybrids Will Drive Toyota’s Q1 Earnings | July 26th, 2024 | ||
With Hybrid Sales Surging, Is Toyota Stock Attractive At $230? | May 14th, 2024 | ||
With EV Plans Taking Shape, What’s Next For Toyota Stock? | June 20th, 2023 | ||
Toyota Stock Looks Like A Buy Despite Tepid Guidance | February 10th, 2023 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -8.1% | -8.1% | -11.7% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -8.1% | -8.1% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Toyota Motor
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 25.23 |
Mkt Cap | 49.0 |
Rev LTM | 231,788 |
Op Inc LTM | 13,600 |
FCF LTM | -7,798 |
FCF 3Y Avg | -4,070 |
CFO LTM | 18,424 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 17,149 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Rev Chg Q | 1.2% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
Op Mgn LTM | 5.1% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
FCF/Rev LTM | -2.6% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.3% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 49.0 |
P/S | 0.3 |
P/EBIT | 0.0 |
P/E | 0.1 |
P/CFO | 0.1 |
Total Yield | 13.8% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -23.4% |
D/E | 0.9 |
Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -5.6% |
3M Rtn | 2.9% |
6M Rtn | 12.0% |
12M Rtn | 12.0% |
3Y Rtn | 14.2% |
1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
6M Excs Rtn | -14.2% |
12M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -66.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Automotive | 41,266,204 | 33,820,000 | 28,605,738 | 24,597,846 | 26,770,379 |
Financial Services | 3,484,198 | 2,809,647 | 2,324,026 | 2,137,195 | 2,172,854 |
All Other | 1,368,164 | 1,224,943 | 1,129,876 | 479,553 | 923,314 |
Inter-segment Elimination/ Unallocated Amount | -1,023,242 | -700,293 | -680,133 | 0 | |
Total | 45,095,324 | 37,154,297 | 31,379,507 | 27,214,594 | 29,866,547 |
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Automotive | 4,621,475 | 2,180,637 | 2,284,290 | 1,607,161 | 2,013,134 |
Financial Services | 570,023 | 437,516 | 657,001 | 495,593 | 283,742 |
All Other | 175,241 | 103,451 | 42,302 | 85,350 | 103,356 |
Inter-segment Elimination/ Unallocated Amount | -13,805 | 3,420 | 12,104 | 9,645 | -999 |
Total | 5,352,934 | 2,725,024 | 2,995,697 | 2,197,749 | 2,399,233 |
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial Services | 43,834,183 | 35,525,441 | 31,681,472 | 28,275,239 | 25,390,541 |
Automotive | 29,351,344 | 26,321,858 | 24,341,737 | 21,412,034 | 19,450,102 |
Inter-segment Elimination/ Unallocated Amount | 13,917,406 | 9,508,887 | 8,574,551 | 9,859,147 | 7,011,769 |
All Other | 3,011,363 | 2,946,994 | 3,091,011 | 2,720,720 | 2,119,951 |
Total | 90,114,296 | 74,303,180 | 67,688,771 | 62,267,140 | 53,972,363 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 6182025 | 20-F 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2052025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11062024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 6252024 | 20-F 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2062024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11302023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8312023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 6302023 | 20-F 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2282023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11302022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8312022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 6232022 | 20-F 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2282022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11302021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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