Tearsheet

Toyota Motor (TM)


Market Price (10/18/2025): $197.88 | Market Cap: $257.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Toyota Motor (TM)


Market Price (10/18/2025): $197.88
Market Cap: $257.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 2114%, Dividend Yield is 457%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 2110%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.4%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 8716%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Tril
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 2114%, Dividend Yield is 457%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 2110%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Tril
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.4%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 8716%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

TM Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TM Return14%22%-26%34%6%0%38%
Peers Return3%65%-44%6%-23%3%-20%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TM Win Rate50%67%33%58%33%33% 
Peers Win Rate33%33%40%53%37%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TM Max Drawdown-23%-9%-30%-2%-9%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-2%-47%-21%-37%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MBGAF, VWAGY, HMC, RIVN, LCID. See TM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventTMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven494 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-24.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven245 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven309 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-58.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven138.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2178 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Toyota Motor's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2022. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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Better Bets than Toyota Motor (TM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Toyota Motor

Financials

TMMBGAFVWAGYHMCRIVNLCIDMedian
NameToyota M.Mercedes.Volkswag.Honda Mo.Rivian A.Lucid  
Mkt Price197.8362.5010.9230.8213.0319.6325.23
Mkt Cap257.860.254.743.215.06.049.0
Rev LTM48,452,150139,355324,22121,624,1775,151929231,788
Op Inc LTM4,653,2658,47618,723972,951-3,599-2,99813,600
FCF LTM-113,42912,194-11,102-381,342-4,493-3,050-7,798
FCF 3Y Avg-793,2909,107-8,808160,898-4,905-3,235-4,070
CFO LTM4,889,75420,86815,979459,074-3,615-2,25518,424
CFO 3Y Avg3,990,25917,17617,123878,661-3,806-2,32917,149

Growth & Margins

TMMBGAFVWAGYHMCRIVNLCIDMedian
NameToyota M.Mercedes.Volkswag.Honda Mo.Rivian A.Lucid  
Rev Chg LTM4.5%-6.8%-0.2%2.0%2.7%39.0%2.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg15.2%0.6%9.0%13.8%183.6%114.2%14.5%
Rev Chg Q3.5%-9.8%-3.0%-1.2%12.5%29.3%1.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%-2.5%-0.8%-0.3%2.9%6.8%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM9.6%6.1%5.8%4.5%-69.9%-322.8%5.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.0%9.3%6.3%5.6%-132.7%-390.3%6.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-1.7%-0.4%-1.1%7.2%17.7%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM10.1%15.0%4.9%2.1%-70.2%-242.7%3.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.9%11.7%5.4%4.7%-101.1%-301.6%5.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.2%8.8%-3.4%-1.8%-87.2%-328.3%-2.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.8%6.2%-2.8%1.1%-128.0%-420.2%-2.3%

Valuation

TMMBGAFVWAGYHMCRIVNLCIDMedian
NameToyota M.Mercedes.Volkswag.Honda Mo.Rivian A.Lucid  
Mkt Cap257.860.254.743.215.06.049.0
P/S0.00.40.20.02.96.50.3
P/EBIT0.05.83.20.0-4.7-2.70.0
P/E0.18.86.10.1-4.3-2.60.1
P/CFO0.12.93.40.1-4.2-2.70.1
Total Yield2,114.4%11.3%16.4%2,189.4%-23.3%-38.3%13.8%
Dividend Yield457.1%0.0%0.0%711.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-304.3%13.6%-14.5%263.4%-32.4%-41.3%-23.4%
D/E149.11.43.40.00.40.50.9
Net D/E87.21.02.3-96.6-0.1-0.00.5

Returns

TMMBGAFVWAGYHMCRIVNLCIDMedian
NameToyota M.Mercedes.Volkswag.Honda Mo.Rivian A.Lucid  
1M Rtn-1.8%2.8%-8.5%-9.7%-7.7%-3.6%-5.6%
3M Rtn17.3%5.3%3.0%2.7%-4.9%-35.4%2.9%
6M Rtn12.2%19.0%11.8%5.8%12.3%-17.5%12.0%
12M Rtn15.6%10.0%14.1%-0.5%28.8%-27.0%12.0%
3Y Rtn47.3%40.5%-12.0%42.8%-58.8%-84.9%14.2%
1M Excs Rtn-1.8%2.3%-5.6%-9.2%-11.7%-4.7%-5.2%
3M Excs Rtn10.7%-2.0%-3.8%-4.0%-10.6%-36.1%-3.9%
6M Excs Rtn-14.0%-7.2%-14.4%-20.3%-13.8%-43.7%-14.2%
12M Excs Rtn2.1%-5.7%-2.6%-14.1%13.8%-54.6%-4.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-39.8%-31.6%-90.3%-42.3%-146.0%-171.3%-66.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Automotive41,266,20433,820,00028,605,73824,597,84626,770,379
Financial Services3,484,1982,809,6472,324,0262,137,1952,172,854
All Other1,368,1641,224,9431,129,876479,553923,314
Inter-segment Elimination/ Unallocated Amount-1,023,242-700,293-680,1330 
Total45,095,32437,154,29731,379,50727,214,59429,866,547


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Automotive4,621,4752,180,6372,284,2901,607,1612,013,134
Financial Services570,023437,516657,001495,593283,742
All Other175,241103,45142,30285,350103,356
Inter-segment Elimination/ Unallocated Amount-13,8053,42012,1049,645-999
Total5,352,9342,725,0242,995,6972,197,7492,399,233


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Financial Services43,834,18335,525,44131,681,47228,275,23925,390,541
Automotive29,351,34426,321,85824,341,73721,412,03419,450,102
Inter-segment Elimination/ Unallocated Amount13,917,4069,508,8878,574,5519,859,1477,011,769
All Other3,011,3632,946,9943,091,0112,720,7202,119,951
Total90,114,29674,303,18067,688,77162,267,14053,972,363


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,069,824
Short Interest: % Change Since 915202514.4%
Average Daily Volume250,605
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.27
Basic Shares Quantity1,303,293,225
Short % of Basic Shares0.1%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202580720256-K 6/30/2025
3312025618202520-F 3/31/2025
1231202420520256-K 12/31/2024
9302024110620246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
3312024625202420-F 3/31/2024
1231202320620246-K 12/31/2023
9302023113020236-K 9/30/2023
630202383120236-K 6/30/2023
3312023630202320-F 3/31/2023
1231202222820236-K 12/31/2022
9302022113020226-K 9/30/2022
630202283120226-K 6/30/2022
3312022623202220-F 3/31/2022
1231202122820226-K 12/31/2021
9302021113020216-K 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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