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What Are E-Commerce Stocks?

U.S based companies that play a role in the e-commerce value chain, including e-commerce platform players, logistics, and digital payment companies5 stocks selected primarily based on relevance to theme E-CommerceEtsy (ETSY), PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Carvana (CVNA), Wayfair (W), Amazon (AMZN)Last 3-year return of 301% and average YTD return of 19.1%These stocks represent thematic screens that show investment promise

While these thematically screened stocks show investment promise relative to other similar stocks, we have not performed rigorous backtesting.

You can visit our rigorously backtested, periodically rebalanced, and tracked portfolios

E-Commerce Stocks: Market Performance

20172018201920202021Total [1]AvgBestReturns E-Commerce Stocks Return [2]49%52%45%161%19%921% <---S&P 500 Return19%-6%29%16%22%105% Trefis MS Portfolio Return23%-2%34%68%46%297% Monthly Win Rates [3] E-Commerce Stocks Win Rate75%67%58%67%64% 66% S&P 500 Win Rate92%67%83%58%73% 75% Trefis Portfolio Win Rate100%67%75%58%82% 76%<---Max Drawdowns [4] E-Commerce Stocks Max Drawdown-20%0%-4%-37%-1% -12%<---S&P 500 Max Drawdown-3%-20%-7%-34%-5% -14% Trefis Portfolio Max Drawdown-4%-24%-11%-38%-14% -18% [1] Cumulative total returns since 2017[2] E-Commerce Stocks: ETSY, PYPL, CVNA, W, AMZN[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year

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How 'Our Selection' Compares To S&P 500 On Evaluation Criteria?

[1] Market Valuation: At P/EBIT of 151, Our Selection trading at a more expensive price compared to 23.7 for S&P 500

Market ValuationOur SelectionS&P 500vs S&P 500As of 11/29/2021 Price To Sales Ratio (P/S)6.33851094796181549CheaperPrice To OpInc Ratio (P/EBIT)15123.7More ExpensivePrice To Earnings Ratio (PE)58.924.9More Expensive

[2] Growth & Profits: Considering the valuation, the market appears to be undervaluing higher growth and demonstrated profit generation ability of S&P 500 - S&P 500: better revenue growth --> 0% last Q (qoq), 0% last Q (yoy), 0% LTM, and 0% annually in last 3 FY - In comparison, Our Selection: -4.3%, 31.7%, 55.2%, and 47.2% respectively, during the same periods - Similarly, S&P 500: greater profit generation promise --> 922,337,203,685,477,630% average margin, 0% average margin expansion, and 922,337,203,685,477,630% cash flow - The corresponding values for Our Selection stand at 7.7%, 0.6%, and 11.5%Note: Average margin is based on average of last Q, LTM, and last 3 FY, while margin change is based on last Q margin vs 3Y average

Growth & ProfitOur SelectionS&P 500vs S&P 500 As of 11/29/2021 Revenue GrowthLast Q Growth (QoQ)-2.3%0%Growing SlowerLast Q Growth (YoY)36.1%0%Growing SlowerLTM Growth55.1%0%Growing SlowerLast 3 Fiscal Year CAGR46.7%0%Growing Slower ProfitabilityLast Q OpInc Margin7.1%922,337,203,685,477,630%Less ProfitableLTM OpInc Margin9.4%922,337,203,685,477,630%Less ProfitableLast 3 Fiscal Year Average6.5%922,337,203,685,477,630%Less ProfitableLTM FCF Margin11.5%922,337,203,685,477,630%Lower Cash Flow %

[3] Financial Risk: Then, is the market is assigning more risk to S&P 500? Likely as there is apparent higher risk for S&P 500 vs Our Selection - Our Selection: better debt position, with debt as % of equity of 6% vs 20% for S&P 500 - Our Selection: more cash cushion, with cash as % of assets of 34.6% vs 11% for S&P 500

Financial RiskOur SelectionS&P 500vs S&P 500 As of 11/29/2021Debt as % of Equity6%20%Lower Debt LoadCash as % of Assets34.6%11%Better Cash Position

[4] Market Returns: What about market returns of Our Selection vs S&P 500? - Our Selection: higher average annualized return of 60.7% vs 18.5% for S&P 500 based on key market periods - These key market periods include, year-to-date, pre-covid to now, and 1, 2, and 3 years prior to covid

Precovid date is taken as end of Feb 2020

Notes:

[1] Q = quarter, LTM = last twelve months, FY = fiscal years, yoy = year-on-year, qoq = quarter-on-quarter

[2] Revenue growth decision is made by giving more weightage to long-term revenue growth (3-year average) and lesser weightage to quarterly growths

[3] Margin mentioned is average of last Q, LTM, and last 3 FY; margin increase is average of increase in last Q vs LTM and increase in last Q vs 3-FY average

Exception To Our Selection Criteria

If our selection criteria yields too few stocks, we use market returns to curate the remaining collection because:

Many investors want exposure to a market trend, sector or themeTherefore, we want to maintain a collection of stocks that give such exposure

In this case, ETSY, PYPL qualified our selection criteria, while CVNA, W, AMZN are included based on market returns

Cautionary note: Such market return based selection is significantly less rigorus compared to our regular selection criteria and therefore, could be less reliable in the long run

E-Commerce Stocks: Individual Stock Returns

Return & Risk Comparison Across Selected Stocks

MetricsETSYWCVNAAMZNPYPL Recent Returns YTD63.8%22.4%21.5%7.6%-19.8%LTM100.8%10.3%22.2%10.0%-12.4%Pre-Covid To Now404.0%337.3%251.1%86.0%73.9% Last 3 Years Returns504.1%202.1%545.9%121.6%132.2%Sharpe Ratio1.030.551.150.861.01Max Drawdown-41.4%-77.9%-32.2%-20.5%-10.2%

What Next?

(1) Learn more about Etsy (ETSY), PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Carvana (CVNA), Wayfair (W), Amazon (AMZN) to understand their investment potential better

(2) Compare performance and potential of E-Commerce stocks vs the other investment themes that we track

(3) Alternatively, invest with our portfolios that have significantly outperformed S&P 500 in the last few years

E-Commerce Stocks: FAQ

[1] Which Other Stocks Can Be Categorized As E-CommerceWe have 3 other tickers as part of E-Commerce stocksWhile other stocks may qualify this category, our system removes stocks that have exceptionally high growth due to very low revenue base to avoid skew in comparisonThese are: United Parcel Service (UPS), FedEx (FDX), eBay (EBAY)You can see return and growth comparison of other E-Commerce stocks vs S&P 500 belowMetricsOther E-CommerceS&P 500vs S&P 500 Recent ReturnsYTD19.2%22.8%SimilarLTM22.2%26.6%SimilarPre-Covid To Now182.1%54.9%Higher Last 3 YearsReturns218.6%71.6%HigherSharpe Ratio1.030.89HigherMax Drawdown-27.0%-23.5%Higher [2] What Other Type Of Stocks Do You Look At?We look at nearly 76 different investment themes, each categorized by specific industry or trend that presents an opportunity for returns or risk diversificationWe update information on these stocks every day. You can find them here.

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