Tearsheet

Target (TGT)


Market Price (11/27/2025): $89.91 | Market Cap: $40.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Target (TGT)


Market Price (11/27/2025): $89.91
Market Cap: $40.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 7.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 7.2%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TGT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Weak Consumer Spending and Shift from Discretionary Categories

Target's stock movement was significantly impacted by a persistent slowdown in consumer spending, especially in discretionary categories like home goods and apparel. Consumers, facing inflationary pressures and rising costs of living, became more cautious, prioritizing essential items over non-essential purchases. This trend directly contributed to declining sales and investor uncertainty throughout the period. 2. Disappointing Q3 2025 Earnings and Lowered Full-Year Guidance

The company's third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, released in November 2025, showed a continuation of declining sales, including a 1.4% decrease in net sales and a 2.7% drop in comparable sales. Although adjusted earnings per share (EPS) slightly beat analyst estimates, Target lowered its full fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS forecast, signaling a more challenging outlook for the remainder of the year and impacting investor confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TGT Return40%33%-34%-1%-2%-33%-20%
Peers Return30%13%-12%37%40%14%180%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TGT Win Rate50%67%42%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate65%57%43%72%68%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TGT Max Drawdown-29%-3%-39%-28%-12%-35% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-12%-32%-5%-4%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST. See TGT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTGTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven132 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven243 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven176.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1508 days1480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST


In The Past

Target's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Target (TGT)

Better Bets than Target (TGT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-12.5%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.4%-14.4%-15.8%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.0%4.0%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.6%-4.6%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.3%-27.3%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-12.5%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.4%-14.4%-15.8%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.0%4.0%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.6%-4.6%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.3%-27.3%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Target

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TGTAMZNWMTCOSTTJXROSTMedian
NameTarget Amazon.c.Walmart Costco W.TJX Comp.Ross Sto. 
Mkt Price89.80229.16109.10908.26153.13177.69165.41
Mkt Cap40.82,437.6870.4403.3170.757.4287.0
Rev LTM105,640670,038693,153275,23557,92521,498190,438
Op Inc LTM5,42476,19028,98810,3836,4762,5808,430
FCF LTM2,94413,48113,7537,8374,0411,6795,939
FCF 3Y Avg3,28221,67714,9867,0704,3581,7975,714
CFO LTM6,386121,13738,43813,3355,9352,4749,860
CFO 3Y Avg7,47096,97736,70711,9146,1452,5659,692

Growth & Margins

TGTAMZNWMTCOSTTJXROSTMedian
NameTarget Amazon.c.Walmart Costco W.TJX Comp.Ross Sto. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.5%10.9%4.2%8.2%4.1%1.9%4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.7%11.3%5.7%6.6%5.3%5.2%5.5%
Rev Chg Q-0.9%13.3%4.8%8.1%6.9%4.6%5.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%3.0%1.2%2.4%1.6%1.1%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM5.1%11.4%4.2%3.8%11.2%12.0%8.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.1%7.9%4.0%3.6%10.7%11.5%6.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.3%-0.1%0.0%0.2%-0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM6.0%18.1%5.5%4.8%10.2%11.5%8.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.0%15.8%5.5%4.6%11.2%12.5%9.1%
FCF/Rev LTM2.8%2.0%2.0%2.8%7.0%7.8%2.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.1%3.5%2.3%2.7%8.0%8.8%3.3%

Valuation

TGTAMZNWMTCOSTTJXROSTMedian
NameTarget Amazon.c.Walmart Costco W.TJX Comp.Ross Sto. 
Mkt Cap40.82,437.6870.4403.3170.757.4287.0
P/S0.43.61.31.52.92.72.1
P/EBIT7.428.628.036.825.520.726.7
P/E10.434.540.849.834.327.834.4
P/CFO6.420.122.630.228.823.222.9
Total Yield14.6%2.9%3.3%2.3%3.9%4.5%3.6%
Dividend Yield5.0%0.0%0.8%0.3%1.0%0.9%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.6%1.1%2.8%2.1%3.7%4.3%3.3%
D/E0.50.10.10.00.10.10.1
Net D/E0.40.00.1-0.00.00.00.0

Returns

TGTAMZNWMTCOSTTJXROSTMedian
NameTarget Amazon.c.Walmart Costco W.TJX Comp.Ross Sto. 
1M Rtn-7.0%1.0%4.4%-2.3%7.2%10.6%2.7%
3M Rtn-7.2%0.0%13.6%-4.2%11.9%18.5%6.0%
6M Rtn-4.2%11.9%12.5%-10.1%22.1%27.9%12.2%
12M Rtn-25.9%10.2%20.6%-6.0%22.8%16.4%13.3%
3Y Rtn-39.0%145.3%122.2%77.3%97.0%58.4%87.2%
1M Excs Rtn-5.2%1.1%6.9%-0.6%7.8%11.7%4.0%
3M Excs Rtn-10.9%-5.8%8.7%-8.5%7.2%14.8%0.7%
6M Excs Rtn-18.3%-3.8%-2.6%-24.9%6.0%13.4%-3.2%
12M Excs Rtn-39.1%2.1%7.7%-19.4%13.5%8.9%4.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-109.4%75.4%52.5%8.3%29.6%-8.9%19.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Food & beverage23,89922,91820,30618,13515,039
Household essentials18,74618,483   
Home furnishings & décor17,76019,46320,25518,23114,430
Apparel & accessories16,48517,64617,93114,77214,304
Hardlines16,16217,73918,61416,62612,595
Beauty12,53811,092   
Credit card profit sharing667734710666680
Advertising revenue522404   
Other420394921670448
Other merchandise sales213247   
Beauty & household essentials  27,26824,46120,616
Total107,412109,120106,00593,56178,112


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,207,231
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.7%
Average Daily Volume6,152,279
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.80
Basic Shares Quantity454,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/19/2025-2.8%  
8/20/2025-6.3%-8.8%-15.1%
5/21/2025-5.2%-2.2%-2.6%
3/4/2025-3.0%-5.7%-13.5%
11/20/2024-21.4%-18.3%-15.8%
8/21/202411.2%10.8%9.3%
5/22/2024-8.0%-5.2%-6.2%
3/5/202412.0%11.7%16.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1078
# Negative141716
Median Positive8.0%10.8%10.4%
Median Negative-5.0%-5.4%-12.2%
Max Positive17.8%18.1%27.4%
Max Negative-24.9%-30.3%-33.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025829202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025530202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025312202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241127202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024830202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024531202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024313202410-K 1/31/2024
103120231122202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023825202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023526202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023308202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221123202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022826202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022527202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022309202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211124202110-Q 10/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LIEGEL MATTHEW AChief Accounting Officer6122025Sell100.902,044206,2451,116,386Form
1Cornell Brian CExecutive Officer5302025Sell96.1845,0004,327,97423,703,159Form
2Cornell Brian CExecutive Officer3122025Sell113.3745,0005,101,48829,344,099Form
3LIEGEL MATTHEW AChief Accounting Officer3102025Sell113.5228732,580814,279Form