Target (TGT)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $90.79 | Market Cap: $41.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Target (TGT)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $90.79Market Cap: $41.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 7.1% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
TGT Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
TGT Return | 40% | 33% | -34% | -1% | -2% | -31% | -17% |
Peers Return | 30% | 13% | -12% | 37% | 40% | 9% | 168% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
TGT Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 33% | |
Peers Win Rate | 65% | 57% | 43% | 72% | 68% | 58% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
TGT Max Drawdown | -29% | -3% | -39% | -28% | -12% | -35% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -12% | -32% | -5% | -4% | -12% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST. See TGT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | TGT | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -60.6% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 153.7% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -29.0% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -63.8% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 176.5% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1508 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Target's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
Target Earnings Notes | |||
Target Stock Jumped 6.2% in a Week, What Now? | Return | ||
Should You Buy Target Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
How Does Target Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
Better Bet Than TGT Stock: Pay Less Than Target To Get More From UNH, OXY | |||
Better Bet Than TGT Stock: Pay Less Than Target To Get More From PPC, SJM | |||
TGT Dip Buy Analysis | |||
Target Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 7.1% in 2025 and -7.7% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
Target (TGT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Target (TGT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
ARTICLES | |||
TGT Drops 15% In A Month, Should You Buy The Stock? | September 18th, 2025 | ||
TGT Lost 15% In A Month. Do You Buy Or Wait? | September 16th, 2025 | ||
How Target Stock Can Fall 50%? | September 11th, 2025 | ||
Target’s Struggles Deepen: What’s Next for TGT Stock? | August 22nd, 2025 | ||
TGT Dropped 6.3% In A Day. Have You Fully Evaluated The Risk? | August 21st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -6.0% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.9% | -15.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.5% | -12.5% | -22.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -6.0% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.9% | -15.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.5% | -12.5% | -22.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Target
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 150.07 |
Mkt Cap | 288.1 |
Rev LTM | 190,438 |
Op Inc LTM | 8,430 |
FCF LTM | 5,939 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 5,714 |
CFO LTM | 9,860 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 9,692 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Rev Chg Q | 5.8% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
Op Mgn LTM | 8.2% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 288.1 |
P/S | 1.9 |
P/EBIT | 25.3 |
P/E | 32.2 |
P/CFO | 21.4 |
Total Yield | 3.7% |
Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 2.2% |
3M Rtn | 6.1% |
6M Rtn | 13.0% |
12M Rtn | 9.3% |
3Y Rtn | 100.1% |
1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
3M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
12M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Food & beverage | 23,899 | 22,918 | 20,306 | 18,135 | 15,039 |
Household essentials | 18,746 | 18,483 | |||
Home furnishings & décor | 17,760 | 19,463 | 20,255 | 18,231 | 14,430 |
Apparel & accessories | 16,485 | 17,646 | 17,931 | 14,772 | 14,304 |
Hardlines | 16,162 | 17,739 | 18,614 | 16,626 | 12,595 |
Beauty | 12,538 | 11,092 | |||
Credit card profit sharing | 667 | 734 | 710 | 666 | 680 |
Advertising revenue | 522 | 404 | |||
Other | 420 | 394 | 921 | 670 | 448 |
Other merchandise sales | 213 | 247 | |||
Beauty & household essentials | 27,268 | 24,461 | 20,616 | ||
Total | 107,412 | 109,120 | 106,005 | 93,561 | 78,112 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/20/2025 | -6.3% | -8.8% | -15.1% |
5/21/2025 | -5.2% | -2.2% | -2.6% |
3/4/2025 | -3.0% | -5.7% | -13.5% |
11/20/2024 | -21.4% | -18.3% | -15.8% |
8/21/2024 | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
5/22/2024 | -8.0% | -5.2% | -6.2% |
3/5/2024 | 12.0% | 11.7% | 16.6% |
11/15/2023 | 17.8% | 18.1% | 27.4% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 11 | 8 | 9 |
# Negative | 13 | 16 | 15 |
Median Positive | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% |
Median Negative | -5.2% | -5.4% | -12.2% |
Max Positive | 17.8% | 18.1% | 27.4% |
Max Negative | -24.9% | -30.3% | -33.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
7312025 | 8292025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
1312025 | 3122025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
1312024 | 3132024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
10312023 | 11222023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
1312023 | 3082023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
10312022 | 11232022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
1312022 | 3092022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
10312021 | 11242021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | LIEGEL MATTHEW A | Chief Accounting Officer | 6122025 | Sell | 100.90 | 2,044 | 206,245 | 1,116,386 | Form |
1 | Cornell Brian C | Executive Officer | 5302025 | Sell | 96.18 | 45,000 | 4,327,974 | 23,703,159 | Form |
2 | Cornell Brian C | Executive Officer | 3122025 | Sell | 113.37 | 45,000 | 5,101,488 | 29,344,099 | Form |
3 | LIEGEL MATTHEW A | Chief Accounting Officer | 3102025 | Sell | 113.52 | 287 | 32,580 | 814,279 | Form |
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